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Commodity Supercycles Don’t Start Where Most People LookOne thing I have learned over the years: 🥇Gold is usually first. (already done) Not because the economy is booming, but because something feels off. Wars... Inflation... you name it. Gold reacts before the story is clear. 🥈Then silver starts waking up. (happening) That’s usually when attention shifts from protection to opportunity. Silver doesn’t just follow gold, it magnifies it. It is cheaper and more convenient especially for those who missed gold's move! 🥉After that, the industrial metals come into play. Copper, palladium, platinum. This is where the cycle starts to feel real. Demand is no longer theoretical. Growth shows up on the charts. (this feels just like altcoin season in crypto lol) 🛢Oil and gas tend to move later. Not last by accident. By then, expansion is obvious and inflation pressures are already building. 🔄Most traders get this backwards. They chase what’s already moving instead of asking why it’s moving. The edge isn’t guessing the top or bottom. It’s understanding what stage the market is in and positioning accordingly. Honest question...⁉️ Are you reacting to what already moved… or paying attention to what’s just starting? ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
26
Oil Risk-Premium Phase, Geopolitical-Driven Upside Move📝 Description Crude Oil on H4 is trading inside a bearish HTF structure, but recent price action shows a corrective recovery driven by rising geopolitical risk. The current move looks reactionary, not impulsive, with price responding to risk-premium flows rather than a confirmed structural shift. Market remains sensitive around key HTF PD Arrays. ________________________________________ 📈 Analysis (Scenario-Based | Non-Signal) Primary Scenario (Risk-Premium Driven): • Rising US–Venezuela tensions are adding a clear risk premium to oil prices • Initial upside moves are headline-driven spikes fueled by hedging and speculation • Price is reacting to expectations, not confirmed supply disruptions Short-Term Market Behavior: • Short-term bias remains bullish with elevated volatility • Pullbacks are likely liquidity-driven corrections, not reversals • These moves help reset positioning before continuation Structural Context: • No confirmed HTF CHOCH + BOS so far • Structure remains corrective within the broader range ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Upside moves classified as risk-premium reactions, not structural breakouts • Corrections viewed as liquidity accumulation phases • HTF PD Arrays remain dominant reference points ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary Oil is trading in a risk-premium environment driven by US–Venezuela tensions. Short-term bias remains bullish, with upside spikes fueled by hedging and speculation. Pullbacks are likely liquidity resets, not trend reversals, keeping the structure tilted higher despite volatility. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by TFlab
Oil volatility: First short entry point at $60.23The job was done! Trump kept his word — military action against Venezuela has begun. Frankly, this was predictable. Monday’s open will be extremely volatile — especially for oil and the U.S. dollar I suppose. 🔍 Now, let’s get more specific. This military operation was expected, even pre-planned. And It won’t reverse the existing downward trend in oil. So here’s my plan: I’ll short oil on rallies — but with reduced lot size and leverage, keeping room to add if price goes higher. Why? Because panic spikes happen — but they’re often short-lived. 📌 My entry zone starts at the ER level — $60.23 futures (marked on the chart). That’s where I’ll place my first scaled-in short, carefully and calmly. P.S. The ER formula is available on the CME exchange's website, and in just a few minutes, you can input the data to get incredible results. It’s truly amazing!
TVC:USOILShort
by ClashChartsTeam
USOIL Sell Opportunity | Downtrend + Rising Venezuela Supply!Hey Traders, In tomorrow’s trading session, we are closely monitoring USOIL for a potential selling opportunity around the 57.50 zone. USOIL remains in a well-defined downtrend and is currently in a corrective pullback, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 57.50 support-turned-resistance area, which could act as a strong rejection zone. From a fundamental perspective, expectations that Trump’s takeover of Venezuela’s oil supply could increase global oil production may lead to higher supply in the market. According to basic supply and demand dynamics, an increase in supply—if not matched by demand—can put downward pressure on oil prices, reinforcing the bearish technical outlook. As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk carefully. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:USOILShort
by JoeChampion
2
The Venezuelan EffectIn this video I going to exhibit the effect of the the profound economic crisis in Venezuela and its broader global implications. WTI, BRENT, BA, EXXON, LOCHKEADMARTIN Overview of the Crisis The video details Venezuela's transition from being the wealthiest nation in South America to a country grappling with extreme hyperinflation and economic collapse . It highlights how the nation's heavy reliance on oil exports—accounting for nearly 95% of its export earnings—made it uniquely vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices . Key Economic Factors The Resource Curse: The video explains how "Dutch Disease" occurred, where the focus on oil led to the neglect of other sectors like agriculture and manufacturing . Hyperinflation: It discusses the catastrophic devaluation of the Bolívar, which led to a scenario where basic necessities became unaffordable for the average citizen . Government Policy: The narrative touches upon the impact of price controls, nationalization of industries, and the role of political instability in exacerbating the financial downturn . The Human and Global Impact Mass Migration: A significant portion of the video is dedicated to the massive exodus of Venezuelans seeking better opportunities in neighboring countries, creating a regional humanitarian challenge . Geopolitical Shifts: It explores how Venezuela’s situation has influenced regional politics and energy markets worldwide . The video concludes by analyzing the current state of the Venezuelan economy and whether recent shifts in policy or international relations offer a path toward stabilization .
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by MartketsTitan
Venezuela regime change could mean more barrels, not fewerHeadline risk would indicate that there will be chaos in the oil market after the invasion of Venezuela and the extraction of its dictator to the US over the weekend. But markets had already begun pricing in Venezuela related disruption. And estimates put Venezuelan output at roughly around one million barrels per day, which is under 1 percent of global production, and exports have been closer to about half of that in recent weeks. That helps explain why the oil move could be limited to the upside. There is also a scenario where prices ease rather than surge. A regime change raises the possibility of higher Venezuelan production over time if sanctions and investment constraints are relaxed. Trump has said major U.S. oil companies will begin to invest billions to restore output. At present, Chevron is the only major U.S. company operating in Venezuela under a special license.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.F
by BlackBull Markets
XOM: Winners of the Venezuelan Oil-Poker!Hello There, in the past days we have witnessed spectacular events that will be historically determining for the oil market and oil company stocks. One of the largest oil reserves country Venezuela changed from a socialist government to a state under U.S. influence. Since the government changed the plan is that oil companies can take up their business again, which was not possible before. As Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves, this could mean massive changes for those companies. One of those companies is ExxonMobil (XOM). The company already had big plans to expand their oil production before 2007. Since 1999, the Venezuelan government has begun expropriating private businesses and, in the majority, oil companies. This also led to the seizure of ExxonMobil in 2007, where thousands of millions of barrels of oil were expropriated into government control. The company has had no ability to get their reserves and continue their businesses in Venezuela since then. As a government change happens in Venezuela, this will create major bullish foundations for XOM. The price already gained over 300% in a continuous uptrend since the corona pandemic in 2020. A potential continuation of their business will likely expand their revenues by up to 40% more. Such factors will have tremendous effects on the price action. As seen in my chart, XOM will likely complete this gigantic bull flag in the next time. Already before this major event, XOM could complete this gigantic broadening wedge formation. The targets of this formation were already confirmed by the breakout. Now the bull flag formation forming above the upper boundary offers the next double confirmational formation. From this point of view this creates a fundamentally and technically bullish perspective for XOM. The targets marked in my chart are already active. When there are massive news in the oil industry there is a high likelihood for major price moves. With this being said, it is great to consider the important trades upcoming. We will watch out for the main market evolutions. Thank you very much for watching!
NYSE:XOMLong
by VincePrince
Will Crude Oil Markets React to Maduro's Arrest: Trading Setup🚨 Crude oil could see a significant GAP with futures open! The impact of the "breaking news" regarding President Maduro's capture and extradition on "crude oil" prices, especially for the "market open" this Sunday. The crude oil market is at a significant turning point as it tests the 57.32 level. Technically, the price is squeezed between a firm resistance at 61.06 and a multi-month floor at 54.68. While the recent arrest of Venezuela's president initially created a risk premium, analysts expect the long-term impact to be bearish if new investments eventually boost Venezuelan supply. For now, the trend remains heavy, with rallies likely to find sellers near the 60.00 mark. #CrudeOil #Trading #WTI #OPEC #EnergyMarket #Investing #MarketAnalysis
NYMEX:CLG2026
by TheMotivationalProfessor
USOIL Outlook: Bearish Below 57.41 Despite Venezuela Supply RiskUSOIL (WTI) | Technical + Fundamental Snapshot Fundamental driver to watch: Venezuela supply risk Recent headlines are supply-supportive for crude: Reuters reports Venezuela’s oil exports have come to a halt amid political turmoil and U.S. sanctions/embargo dynamics, with tankers stuck and storage nearing capacity—raising the risk of forced production cuts if exports remain blocked. Reuters Reuters also noted that Venezuelan oil facilities were operating normally and were not damaged in the reported U.S. operation—so the key risk is logistics/exports, not infrastructure destruction. Reuters For context, Reuters previously highlighted Venezuelan crude as roughly ~1% of global supply, which can still move prices at the margin when markets are thin or risk-sensitive. Reuters How this fits your chart: Venezuela tension can create spikes and whipsaws, but your structure still shows selling pressure below the pivot—so rallies may be corrective unless key levels break. TECHNICAL VIEW Timeframe: 6H Current Price: ~57.32 Pivot Line: 57.41 Market Structure Price is trading below the pivot (57.41) and making lower highs, which keeps the bias bearish. Your projected path suggests a small corrective bounce, then continuation lower into the demand zone. Scenarios 🔻 Bearish scenario (Primary) Bias stays bearish while below 57.41 First target: 56.38 If price breaks/holds below 56.38, continuation toward the demand zone (~55.6–55.0 area) is likely (as you marked). Next major support after that: 54.38 🔺 Bullish scenario (Invalidation) A bullish shift needs a reclaim of the pivot and follow-through: Hold above 57.41 first Then a push above 58.69 increases the chance of a recovery toward: 60.16 61.83 Key Levels (Your Chart) Pivot: 57.41 Resistance: 58.69 → 60.16 → 61.83 Support: 56.38 → 54.38 → 51.92 Conclusion Even with Venezuela headlines supporting headline-driven spikes, your chart remains technically bearish below 57.41, favoring a move toward 56.38 and potentially the 55.xx demand zone, unless price reclaims the pivot and breaks higher.
TVC:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
CVX: The Perfect Storm (Macro Catalyst + Massive Channel)The news cycle is obsessed with the politics of the US & Venezuela, but the smart money is focused on the supply chain. I created this chart to visualize how a massive fundamental catalyst (The Flags) is colliding with a decade-long technical structure (The Channel). 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The Flags 🇺🇸🇻🇪) While the headlines are about "deals," the reality for the energy sector is about Market Access. Chevron ( NYSE:CVX ) is the primary US major with the "keys to the kingdom"—active OFAC licenses and operational Joint Ventures on the ground. The Moat: While competitors are years away from navigating new contracts, CVX has a "Turnkey" advantage. The infrastructure is there. The pipes are connected. The Shift: This opens the door to immediate heavy crude reserves for US Gulf Coast refineries, a massive tailwind for margins. 2. The Technical Structure (The Blue Channel) 📉 Politics is noise; Price is truth. Look at the geometry in the chart: The Channel: Price has respected this massive Blue Ascending Channel for years. It defines the institutional trend. The Coil: We have been compressing in a tight Triangle Consolidation (white lines) right at the breakout point. The Target (TP Circle) : If we break out of this triangle, the standard technical measured move targets the upper rail of the channel. This aligns with the "TP" zone marked on the chart, projecting a move toward "Blue Sky" territory. 3. The Verdict Rarely do you see a "Perfect Storm" where a Macro Event (Venezuela reopening) aligns this cleanly with a Technical Setup (Triangle Breakout). The structure suggests the market is pricing in a "Supercycle" return for American energy access. 👇 The "Venezuela Reconstruction" Watchlist: If the Venezuela thesis plays out, it's not just Chevron that moves. Here is the basket of related Energy, Services, and Refining stocks I am tracking for this cycle: Majors: NYSE:CVX , NYSE:COP Services (Boots on the Ground): NYSE:SLB , NSE:HAL , AMEX:OIH Refiners (Heavy Crude Beneficiaries): NYSE:VLO , NYSE:MPC , NYSE:PSX , NYSE:DINO , NYSE:PBF Sector ETF: AMEX:XLE Which of these is your top pick for the reconstruction trade? Let me know in the comments! Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes regarding market reaction to geopolitical events. It is based on technical chart geometry and public news. Not investment advice.
NYSE:CVXLong
by Algoat_Alpha
DVN - Devon Energy Corporation (Bullish TA Thesis for 2026)There are multiple confluences telling me that DVN could make a move up to $65 and possibly as high as $105-$129 levels. Very successful backtest of an 18 year trendline in which the stock broke out of in 2021. Elliott Wave counts also look very well structured to me with an ABC correction down to form a descending channel, which it is now breaking out of to start the month/year. The 2 levels that must be breached to the upside in order to reach the potential targets are $42-$44 where there is some bearish order block activity as well as VPOC (Volume Point of Control). All monthly oscillators have officially turned bullish, specifically Stoch RSI and B-Xtrender with fresh confirmed signals.
NYSE:DVNLong
by SovereignCharts
SU: The "Boring" Giant is Coiling (Structural Breakout Setup)Tech stocks get the headlines, but Energy giants like Suncor (SU) pay the rent. While retail traders are chasing volatile small-caps, institutional capital is quietly positioning in major structural setups. I'm looking at the pure price structure on SU, and it's painting a clear picture of compression. Here is the "No BS" breakdown of why this boring chart might be about to get very exciting. 1️⃣ THE STRUCTURE: The "Energy Coil" 📉 Markets move in cycles of expansion and contraction. SU is currently deep in a Contraction Phase. Look at the chart (clean price action only). You can see price is being squeezed between two clear converging lines: The Ceiling (Defined Resistance): Sellers are defending a clear horizontal or descending level. Every rally is getting sold into. The Floor (Rising Support): Crucially, buyers are stepping in higher each time there is a dip. This shows underlying demand is building pressure. 2️⃣ THE PSYCHOLOGY: The Standoff 🧠 This tightening range represents a standoff between bulls and bears. As the range gets tighter, the energy builds up. The Physics of Trading: Compression always leads to expansion. The longer the coil, the more explosive the eventual move. We are approaching the apex of this structure now. 3️⃣ THE SETUP: Patience Pays 🎯 This is not a "guess the direction" game. This is a reactive setup. The Bull Trigger: We need to see a decisive Daily Close above the resistance ceiling, ideally accompanied by a spike in volume. This confirms the sellers are exhausted and the "markup phase" is beginning. The Invalidation: If price breaks below the rising support line, the bullish structure is broken, and we likely revisit lower liquidity zones. The "Pro" Verdict: Amateurs try to front-run the breakout and often get chopped up. Professionals wait for the confirmation. The coil is tight. Watch the boundaries. When this giant decides to move, it won't look back. Discussion: Are you seeing energy stocks as a rotation play right now, or is the global demand fear too high? Let me know your thoughts below 👇
NYSE:SULong
by Algoat_Alpha
2
Next week outlookSo, if we can hold our higher high today and into Sunday, bulls will be back in control. My prediction is we gun straight toward $4.2 starting next session and we hit that target around Tuesday night. This is all resting on 4hr turning positive on Sundays night session. There is still a chance for collapse of the 4hr and we head down to retest prior low. If we break prior low all this is out the window and bulls have lost their chance for now. Entering now is high risk, so for low risk traders wait for the 4 hour positive cross confirmation.
NYMEX:NGG2026Long
by tirsobust
Oil Traders Watch This Breakdown Level Carefully🔻 XTI/USD (WTI / USOIL) — Bearish Breakout Trade Blueprint Energies Market | Day / Swing Trade Opportunity 📌 Asset Overview XTI/USD – WTI Crude Oil vs U.S. Dollar Market Type: Energy Commodity (CFD / Futures correlated) Trading Style: Day Trade / Swing Trade 🧭 Trade Plan 🔴 Primary Bias: BEARISH BREAKOUT CONTINUATION Price has completed a structure breakdown, confirming seller dominance after failed bullish recovery. Momentum favors downside continuation as liquidity shifts below key levels. 🎯 Entry Strategy 📍 Sell AFTER confirmed breakout below → 56.80 • You may enter at any price level after breakout confirmation • Aggressive traders: enter on breakdown momentum • Conservative traders: wait for a pullback retest below 56.80 Execution depends on your risk model & position sizing. 🛑 Stop Loss (Risk Control) 🚨 Protective SL: 58.00 ⚠️ This is a reference level, not a mandatory rule. Adjust your stop placement based on: Timeframe Volatility Account risk parameters 🎯 Profit Objective 🎯 Primary TP Zone: 55.80 Why this zone matters: • Strong historical support • Oversold reaction area • High probability of short-covering • Correction + liquidity trap zone ⚠️ Partial profits are advised as price approaches this region. 🔎 Key Technical Drivers ✔️ Breakdown below key structure ✔️ Lower highs + lower lows ✔️ Momentum shift favoring sellers ✔️ Failed bullish continuation ✔️ Liquidity sweep completed above range 🌍 Related Markets to Watch (Correlation Map) 💵 USD-Linked Instruments DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) → Strong USD often pressures oil prices USD/CAD → Inverse correlation (CAD = oil-linked currency) 📉 Risk & Macro Assets US10Y Treasury Yields → Rising yields = pressure on commodities S&P 500 / US Indices → Risk-off sentiment weighs on energy demand 🛢️ Energy Complex Brent Crude (UKOIL) → Confirms directional bias Energy Sector Stocks → Weakness confirms oil downside momentum 📰 Fundamental & Economic Factors Supporting This Trade ⚖️ Macro Environment • Demand concerns from global growth slowdown • Stronger USD reducing commodity attractiveness • Tight financial conditions limiting speculative inflows 🛢️ Oil-Specific Factors • Inventory sensitivity remains elevated • Market reacts sharply to supply-demand imbalance • Volatility increases near key economic releases 📅 Upcoming Market Sensitivities • U.S. inflation data • Federal Reserve policy expectations • Energy inventory updates • Global growth & demand outlook commentary Expect volatility spikes around high-impact macro releases. ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer This analysis is not financial advice. Stop loss and take profit levels are guidelines only. Every trader must manage risk according to their own strategy. 👍 If this analysis adds value • Drop a LIKE 👍 • Share your view in comments 💬 • Follow for consistent energy market breakdowns 📈
ICMARKETS:XTIUSD
by The-Thief
Brent Crude Oil | DailyBrent crude has been in a medium-term corrective phase since June 2025. Recent price action suggests this correction is nearing exhaustion. The latest move below the previous low appears to be a liquidity sweep rather than a true bearish continuation, followed by a quick reaction from the lows, indicating weakening sell-side pressure. A clear time divergence is present: the corrective leg has taken more time than the prior bullish impulse while achieving less price displacement, a typical sign of corrective exhaustion. Key resistance zones to monitor on any recovery: - 62.43 – 63.16 (near-term supply) - 66.17 – 66.90 (mid-range resistance) - 69.35 – 70.16 (major overhead supply) At current levels, selling offers a poor risk-to-reward profile. Bias gradually shifts toward the long side, especially if price breaks the descending trendline or shows structure shift on lower timeframes.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by GForecast
Natural Gas Is Hibernating Ahead of an Upcoming SwingToday, we will discuss why natural gas is hibernating ahead of an upcoming swing. We will deep dive into: 1) the impact of inflation on commodity prices, 2) the technical outlook, covering both long-term and short-term perspectives, and 3) the fundamental confirmation of this view, based on the “Five Things to Watch in Energy Markets in 2026.” Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures & Options Ticker: NG Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 per MMBtu = $10.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by konhow
WTI OIL Strong case for a 2-month rally.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down since the September 28 2023 High. Since then, it as had four Bearish Legs (including the current one), which declined on a range of -25.62% to -31.58%. All subsequent rebounds (Bullish Legs) that followed, hit at least their 0.681 Fibonacci retracement levels. Given that the price rebounded 2 weeks ago on the 8-month Support (55.20) and the 1W RSI has been on Higher Lows (i.e. Bullish Divergence) since May, we may see a new Bullish Leg emerging now. The one condition that will confirm that will be the price breaking above the blue Channel Down. If that takes place, we will turn bullish for the next two months, targeting $69.00 (Fib 0.618). --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
1