Get started

Energy Commodities

Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 55.74 (Wave 5).Colleagues, wave “4” of the minor order is ending or has already ended. As part of a major downward movement in wave ‘5’ of the major movement, I expect a downward movement in wave “5” of the minor order. This wave should update the low of wave “3”, but I believe it is worth looking at the nearest target in the support area of 55.746. I also allow for the possibility of reaching the 59.00 area before the price begins a downward movement. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
6
WTI Energy Markets: Are Buyers Still in Control?🛢️ WTI / USOIL — Bullish Energy Momentum Play Energies • Commodities CFD • Day / Swing Trade 📌 Market Bias 🟢 Bullish Plan Active WTI crude oil is trading with strong upside momentum, supported by trend structure and energy-sector flows. Buyers continue to defend dips while price respects bullish continuation behavior. 🎯 Trade Plan Entry: ✅ Flexible entry allowed — you may enter at any price level, depending on your execution model and risk profile. Stop Loss: ⛔ Reference SL: 56.000 ⚠️ Risk disclaimer: Adjust your stop-loss based on your strategy, position sizing, and account risk rules. Take Profit Zone: 🚨 Primary Objective: 60.000 📉 The moving average zone acts as a “police force” resistance — expect: Overbought conditions Liquidity traps Potential corrective reactions 💡 Protect profits aggressively near resistance. 🧠 Technical Logic (Why This Works) ✔️ Bullish trend structure intact ✔️ Higher-low defense suggests dip buyers are active ✔️ Moving average acting as dynamic resistance → profit-booking zone ✔️ Momentum favors continuation until supply absorbs demand 🔗 Related Markets to Watch (Correlation Guide) 💵 USD-Based Pairs DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) → Inverse correlation 📉 Weaker USD often supports higher oil prices. USD/CAD → Strong negative correlation 🛢️ Rising oil typically strengthens CAD. 🛢️ Energy Instruments BRENT Crude → Directional confirmation XLE (Energy Sector ETF) → Institutional energy flow tracker Natural Gas (XNG/USD) → Sentiment cross-check (not direct correlation) 📈 Risk Sentiment US30 / S&P500 → Risk-on flows support commodity demand Bond Yields → Rising yields can cap aggressive oil rallies 🌍 Fundamental & Economic Factors to Monitor 📊 (Current & upcoming macro drivers) 🛢️ OPEC+ supply guidance (production discipline impacts price stability) 🏭 U.S. crude inventory data (supply-demand imbalance signals) 🌍 Global growth outlook (energy consumption expectations) 🚢 Geopolitical supply risks (shipping routes & production regions) 💵 U.S. Dollar strength (pricing pressure on commodities) 🏦 Central bank policy tone (risk appetite & inflation hedging) 📌 These factors can accelerate or cap bullish momentum, especially near resistance zones. ⚠️ Risk Note This idea provides market structure and directional context only. You control: Position size Risk exposure Entry & exit execution Trade responsibly and manage capital professionally. 💬 If this setup adds value, hit 👍 and ⭐ to support quality analysis. 📌 Follow for more structured energy & macro-driven trade ideas.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by The-Thief
Swing Long Trade Idea on USOILSwing Long Trade Idea on USOIL In 2025, metals, commodities, equities, and Bitcoin all reached new all time highs, while USOIL has lagged behind. I believe we could see a catch up move in USOIL during Q1 2026, as price is currently holding at a strong support level. I am considering a swing long position if USOIL breaks out of the descending triangle. The RR on this setup looks very attractive. My plan is to take partial profits at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, set the second target at the top of the channel, and trail the stop loss after the first target is reached. Share you thoughts
TVC:USOILLong
by smwajeeh
1
Wti on high time frame 1. **Fundamental Analysis**: Given the current economic situation and tensions, particularly the conflict between the USA and Venezuela, I expect oil prices to rise. 2. **Technical Signals**: Technical analysis supports my expectations, indicating a favorable outlook for price movement. 3. **Price Target**: I anticipate that WTI could break through the $64 level. 4. **Risk Management**: Emphasizing the importance of good risk management while trading. If you need further insights or a specific aspect analyzed, feel free to ask!
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by somayehbasiri
WTI Crude Oil 4H Setup – Liquidity Zones & FVG ReactionThis 4-hour chart of WTI Crude Oil (FXCM) highlights a potential trade setup based on liquidity structure and Fair Value Gaps (FVG). Key zones include Buy Side Liquidity (BSL), Sell Side Liquidity (SSL), and both 4H and Daily FVGs. An Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) is marked, with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels clearly defined. Price action suggests a reaction from the FVG zone, with structure favoring a move toward the next liquidity pool. The setup reflects Smart Money Concepts and precision-based execution.
FX:USOILLong
by ZayanHassan7
Market Report — Friday 26.12.25📉 Market Moves WTI front-month (CLG26): −2.76% (−1.61) Behavior: sharp sell-off through the session; prices weakened intraday as peace-deal headlines gained traction and closed near session lows. RBOB gasoline (RBG26): −2.66% (−0.0467) Behavior: tracked crude lower with high beta; product selling accelerated alongside crude as risk premium was removed. Complex view: broad risk-premium unwind, with crude and products moving in tandem. 📊 Key Drivers Bearish Ukraine–Russia peace progress (major): Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a 20-point peace plan is ~90% complete and expects to meet Donald Trump, increasing expectations that sanctions on Russian energy could eventually be eased. Risk premium compression: Markets discounted reduced geopolitical disruption risk if negotiations advance, prompting liquidation after recent supply-risk rallies. Rising US rig count: Baker Hughes reported US oil rigs up +3 w/w to 409, tempering the bullish supply narrative from prior weeks. Medium-term surplus narrative: OPEC and IEA continue to project 2025–26 surplus conditions. Bullish Venezuela tanker blockade (secondary): The US Coast Guard forced the sanctioned tanker Bella 1 to turn away as part of the blockade involving Venezuela, supporting prices at the margin. Russia supply constraints (secondary): Continued Ukrainian attacks on refineries and tankers and ongoing US/EU sanctions limit exports from Russia. Nigeria security strikes: US strikes on ISIS targets in Nigeria (an OPEC member) added minor geopolitical support. OPEC+ discipline: OPEC+ reaffirmed its plan to pause production increases in Q1-2026. 📝 Post-Mortem Analysis Why prices moved: Markets aggressively priced in the possibility of a Ukraine–Russia ceasefire, stripping out geopolitical risk premium despite ongoing physical disruptions. Crude vs products: Gasoline followed crude lower with little independent support, reflecting weak seasonal demand and high correlation during risk-off sessions. What changed from prior day: The narrative shifted from supply disruption escalation to diplomatic progress, reversing the bullish momentum built earlier in the week. 🧾 Summary Oil prices sold off sharply as peace-deal optimism triggered a risk-premium unwind that overwhelmed ongoing Venezuela and Russia supply constraints.
CFI:WTI
by Rix1113
CRUDE OIL (CL) PREDICTIONCRUDE OIL (CL) PREDICTION 📊 Market Sentiment Crude oil prices had been trending lower following signs of de-escalation in the Israel–Palestine conflict, easing tensions with Iran, and emerging peace signals from the Russia–Ukraine front. However, recent statements from Trump and the possibility of a U.S. military action against Venezuela have shifted sentiment back to the upside. Venezuela holds approximately 18% of the world’s proven oil reserves and ranks as the 12th largest oil producer globally. Any potential conflict involving the U.S. could significantly disrupt supply expectations, acting as a strong bullish catalyst for oil prices. 📈 Technical Analysis CL swept monthly liquidity around the $55 level and has since shifted into a bullish structure on the daily timeframe. In my view, this move indicates that price has gathered sufficient energy for either continuation higher or a controlled retracement before the next bullish leg. 📌 Prediction – Game Plan I entered a long position at 56.24$. 🎯 TP1: 57.70$ I will take partial profits here and move the remaining position to breakeven. 🎯 TP2: 58.90$ 🛑 Stop Loss: Daily close below 55.40$ 💬 For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
1
Natural Gas Stock Forecast | Oil | Dollar | Silver | GoldCatch the latest commodities trading insights! This week's market analysis includes a look at both sides of the coin for oil, gold and silver. Plus, get some helpful technical analysis and trading tips to guide your decisions. AMEX:UNG Natural Gas stock Bulls NatGas Support & Resistance Guide NYMEX:CL1! USO Oil Stock price Forecast DXY US dollar Stock analysis COMEX:GC1! Gold XAUUSD Stock price Forecast COMEX:SI1! Silver XAGUSD stock analysis
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ArcadiaTrading
Crude Oil Futures Closing the GAP this Week?📊 CRUDE OIL FUTURES (FEB 2026) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." — Alexander Elder The Crude Oil Futures (CLG2026) chart on the 1-hour timeframe shows a significant bearish breakdown as we head into late December 2025. Sellers have taken control after a period of distribution near the recent highs. 📉 CURRENT PRICE ACTION Ticker: CLG2026 (Crude Oil Feb '26) Price: 56.93 (+0.05% in the current session) Trend: The market has experienced a sharp "flush" from the 58.40 level, breaking through multiple support zones in a single high-momentum move. 🚀 CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH UPWARD RESISTANCE Entry Zone: 58.40 (This was the previous distribution peak and acts as significant resistance on any bounce). Previous Support: 57.80 (The blue line now acts as a technical "ceiling" for short-term recovery). DOWNWARD SUPPORT Market Closing Price: 56.94 (Current area of consolidation following the breakdown). Target Gap: 56.53 – 56.60 (The chart indicates an "Open Gap" that hasn't been filled yet; price is gravitating toward this zone). 📈 MOMENTUM AND PATTERNS Distribution Box: The yellow box near the top shows the price struggling to move higher before the aggressive sell-off. Breakout Move: A large yellow rectangle highlights the high-velocity downward move that invalidated the previous bullish structure. Gap Theory: The orange arrow points directly to the lower gap, suggesting a high probability that the price will hit the 56.50 range before finding new buyers. 🔍 TRADING STRATEGY Bearish Bias: The overall short-term outlook is bearish as long as the price remains below 57.80. Gap Fill Play: Traders are likely watching for a move into the 56.60 "Gap" zone to look for potential "exhaustion" or reversal signs. Wait for Rejection: If the market rallies back to 57.14, look for rejection candles to confirm the downtrend's continuation. #CrudeOil #OilTrading #FuturesTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Commodities #CLG2026 #WTI #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdate
NYMEX:CLG2026Short
by TheMotivationalProfessor
OIL, Crucial Wedge-Formation, Huge PLUNGE to Follow Next!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis of OIL. Within the recent high inflation development with continued rate hikes in a lot of economic fields, it has to be mentioned that OIL could be on the brink of major market disruptions especially when the rate hikes continue to rise further together with the DXY printing the next new highs. In this case, I have detected important underlying dynamics within the analytics dashboard and I have put them into perspective to determine what should be considered with OIL in the upcoming times. As when looking at my chart now, OIL could since May 2023 recover from the crucial bearish wave lows nonetheless this wave does not have a fundamental open interest and volume backing and this is why it can turn any time especially when a massive bearish supply wave is entering the market because of grievous rate hikes and potential new supply-chain disruptions that are going to trigger a supply shortage. Taking these crucial factors into consideration a major bearish decline and bearish momentum acceleration may be just around the corner. OIL has also formed this gigantic descending channel formation in which it has the major bearish distribution resistances within the upper boundary as marked. The most determining factor here is the massive ascending triangle formation that leads directly into the upper resistance zone and is now about to complete the wave count within the ascending triangle. This means, that as the wave-count directly approaches the crucial upper resistance zone it is going to lead to an increased bearish volatility breakout below the boundaries within the next times. Once the gigantic ascending triangle formation has been completed it is going to activate the next bearish continuation below the 100EMA and 300EMA. Especially, once the price-action formed the breakouts below the levels this is going to massively accelerate the bearish dynamics towards the lower levels and continue into the bearish momentum direction. The bearish price dynamic is going to continue till the final targets have been reached and in this case, it will be highly determining how the final targets are actually approached especially when the interest rates continue to rise together with supply-chain disruptions to accelerate this is going to trigger the next bearish waves even below the final target zones. Taking all the factors into consideration and because of the gigantic ascending triangle, together with the underlying indications with the interest rate dynamic as well as the supply-chain disruptions dynamic I am keeping the symbol on my watchlist and I am going to re-evaluate the situation once important changes happened within the bearish formation. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of OIL. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
TVC:USOIL
by VincePrince
11
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
TVC:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
WTIUSD: Bearish Drop to 56?CFI:WTI is eyeing a bearish continuation on the 4-hour chart , with price testing the upper boundary of a downward channel after recent rebounds, converging with a resistance zone near cumulative sell liquidation that could trigger downside momentum if sellers defend the highs. This setup suggests a pullback opportunity amid the ongoing downtrend, targeting lower support levels with 1:2.5 risk-reward .🔥 Entry between 59–59.70 for a short position (entry at current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 56 . Set a stop loss at a close above 60.40 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of 1:2.5 . Monitor for confirmation via a bearish candle close below entry with rising volume, leveraging the channel's bearish bias.🌟 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry (Short): 59.00 – 59.70 (Entry from current price is valid with proper risk & capital management.) 🎯 Target: 56.00 ❌ Stop Loss: • Close above 60.40 ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: • ~ 1:2.5 💡 Your take? Does WTI reject channel resistance and slide toward 56.00, or will buyers force a deeper breakout attempt above 60.40 first? 👇
CFI:WTIShort
by Master_Hunter
1
USOIL - Symmetrical Triangle at $57 Executive Summary TVC:USOIL (WTI Crude) is trading at $57.23 on December 26, 2025, down nearly 2% as markets react to progress in Ukraine peace talks that could eventually allow more Russian oil to return to global markets. Price is trapped in a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4H timeframe, compressing between $55 support and $60 resistance. Despite geopolitical support from the US Venezuela blockade and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, WTI is heading for its steepest annual drop since 2020 (-18% YTD) as oversupply concerns dominate. BIAS: NEUTRAL - Waiting for Triangle Breakout The symmetrical triangle is a neutral pattern that can break either direction. Geopolitical risks favor bulls, but oversupply fundamentals favor bears. Let the breakout determine direction. Current Market Context - December 26, 2025 Oil is at a critical juncture: Current Price: $57.23 (-1.99% on the day) Day's Range: $57.14 - $58.88 Weekly Performance: +3% (best week since October) YTD Performance: -18% (steepest annual drop since 2020) Brent Crude: ~$61.51 Key Technical Levels: Resistance: $58.60 / $59.07 / $60.48 Support: $57.80 / $55.50 / $54.98 Triangle apex approaching - breakout imminent THE BULL CASE - Geopolitical Risk Premium 1. Venezuela Blockade Intensifying President Trump has ordered a "total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers" going into and leaving Venezuela: US Coast Guard boarded the Centuries tanker in the Caribbean US forces pursuing tanker Bella 1 heading to Venezuela Coast Guard assembling more manpower and weapons to forcibly board vessels Venezuelan exports down to less than 400,000 bpd (half of last year) While global impact is minimal, it's keeping a "bullish tilt to prices" 2. Ukraine-Russia Energy Infrastructure Attacks Ukraine struck Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery (key diesel/jet fuel supplier) Ukrainian drones hit Russian shadow oil tanker in Mediterranean Sea At least 28 Russian refineries targeted in past three months Six tankers attacked by drones/missiles in Baltic Sea since November New US and EU sanctions curbing Russian oil exports Limiting Russia's crude export capabilities 3. US Oil Rig Count at Multi-Year Lows Active US oil rigs fell to 4.25-year low of 406 rigs (Dec 19) Slight recovery to 409 rigs this week (+3) Down sharply from 627 rigs in December 2022 Lower rig count = slower future production growth 4. Inventory Data Supportive US crude inventories: -4.0% below 5-year seasonal average Gasoline inventories: -0.4% below 5-year average Distillate inventories: -5.7% below 5-year average Crude stored on tankers fell -7% week-over-week 5. OPEC+ Production Pause OPEC+ pausing production increases in Q1 2026 Still has 1.2 million bpd of cuts left to restore November OPEC production fell -10,000 bpd to 29.09 million bpd Trying to manage emerging surplus THE BEAR CASE - Oversupply Dominates 1. Record Global Oil Surplus Expected IEA forecasts record 4.0 million bpd surplus for 2026 OPEC revised Q3 estimates from deficit to 500,000 bpd surplus US production exceeded expectations Most major traders expect global surplus next year WTI heading for steepest annual drop since 2020 (-18%) 2. Ukraine Peace Talk Progress Zelenskiy expects to meet Trump to discuss ending war Kremlin reviewing peace proposals Maintaining contacts with US officials Peace could allow more Russian oil to return to markets This news triggered today's -2% drop 3. Rising US Production US crude production at 13.843 million bpd Just below record high of 13.862 million bpd EIA raised 2025 estimate to 13.59 million bpd Production outside OPEC+ also rising 4. Seasonal Weakness 2025 significantly underperforming 2024 and 2023 seasonally Thin holiday trading amplifying moves Year-end positioning adding volatility Expert Analysis Dennis Kissler (BOK Financial): "While the backup of the blockade and sanctions is not decreasing world supplies, the fact that it may be delaying them is keeping a bullish tilt to prices." "Venezuelan oil exports have been less than 400,000 barrels a day the past couple of months, which is half what they were exporting last year. While the U.S. blockade has turned the pressure up on Venezuela, the global impact to crude prices looks minimal at this time." Ritterbusch and Associates: "We feel that excessive optimism regarding a quick peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia has been quelled for now." "Crude fundamentals continue to provide a significant offset against the geopolitical factor." Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 4 Hour Timeframe The chart shows a clear symmetrical triangle pattern: Symmetrical Triangle Characteristics: Upper trendline: Connecting lower highs (descending resistance) Lower trendline: Connecting higher lows (ascending support) Converging trendlines creating compression Price oscillating between boundaries Triangle apex approaching - breakout imminent Neutral pattern - can break either direction Key Zones Identified: Upper resistance zone: $60-$61 (purple shaded) Lower support zone: $55-$55.50 (purple shaded) Major resistance line: $60.48 (red horizontal) Major support line: $54.98 (red horizontal) Current price: $57.23 (mid-triangle) Pattern Implications: Symmetrical triangles typically break in direction of prior trend Prior trend was bearish (down from highs) However, geopolitical factors could override technicals Volume typically decreases during triangle formation Breakout should come with volume confirmation Measured move target = triangle height from breakout point Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: $57.80 - Immediate resistance (analyst target) $58.60 - Secondary resistance $59.07 - Triangle upper boundary area $60.00 - Psychological resistance $60.48 - MAJOR RESISTANCE (red line on chart) $62.00 - Extended resistance Support Levels: $57.14 - Day's low / immediate support $56.50 - Secondary support $55.50 - Triangle lower boundary area $55.00 - Psychological support $54.98 - MAJOR SUPPORT (red line on chart) $53.00-$54.00 - Extended support Triangle Breakout Targets If Bullish Breakout (above $59-$60): Triangle height: ~$5-6 Target 1: $62-$63 Target 2: $65-$66 Would require geopolitical escalation or supply disruption If Bearish Breakdown (below $55): Triangle height: ~$5-6 Target 1: $52-$53 Target 2: $50-$51 Would confirm oversupply narrative SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $59-$60 Trigger Conditions: 4H close above $59.07 (triangle resistance) Volume spike on breakout Venezuela situation escalates Ukraine-Russia peace talks collapse Major supply disruption Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: $60.48 - Major resistance Target 2: $62.00-$63.00 - Measured move Target 3: $65.00-$66.00 - Extended target Bullish Catalysts: Venezuela blockade intensifying Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries US oil rigs at 4.25-year lows Inventories below seasonal averages OPEC+ production pause in Q1 2026 Geopolitical risk premium BEARISH SCENARIO - Breakdown Below $55 Trigger Conditions: 4H close below $55.00 (triangle support) Volume confirmation on breakdown Ukraine peace deal announced OPEC+ increases production US production hits new record Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: $54.98 - Major support Target 2: $52.00-$53.00 - Measured move Target 3: $50.00-$51.00 - Extended target Bearish Risks: IEA forecasts record 4.0 million bpd surplus for 2026 Ukraine peace talks progressing US production near record highs YTD: -18% (steepest drop since 2020) Oversupply narrative dominant Seasonal weakness NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Continued Triangle Consolidation Most likely short-term outcome: Price continues oscillating within triangle Range: $55.50 - $59.00 Thin holiday trading Wait for breakout confirmation Watch geopolitical headlines MY ASSESSMENT - NEUTRAL with Slight Bearish Lean This is a genuinely balanced setup: Bullish Factors: Venezuela blockade intensifying Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure US rigs at multi-year lows Inventories below seasonal averages OPEC+ production pause Weekly gain of +3% Bearish Factors: Record surplus expected for 2026 Ukraine peace talks progressing US production near record highs YTD: -18% Prior trend was bearish Oversupply fundamentals dominant My Stance: NEUTRAL - Trade the Breakout The symmetrical triangle is a neutral pattern. Geopolitical risks provide support, but oversupply fundamentals cap upside. The prior trend was bearish, which slightly favors a downside breakout, but geopolitical escalation could easily flip this bullish. Strategy: Wait for confirmed breakout Long above $59.07 with volume Short below $55.00 with volume Don't trade the middle of the triangle Watch Venezuela and Ukraine headlines Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Entry Conditions: 4H close above $59.07 Volume exceeds recent average Geopolitical catalyst Trade Parameters: Entry: $59.20-$59.50 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: $57.50 below recent support Target 1: $60.48 (Risk-Reward ~1:0.7) Target 2: $62.00-$63.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:2) Target 3: $65.00 (Extended) Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Trade Entry Conditions: 4H close below $55.00 Volume confirmation Peace deal progress or supply news Trade Parameters: Entry: $54.80-$55.00 on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: $56.50 above recent support Target 1: $53.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.2) Target 2: $51.00-$52.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.5) Target 3: $50.00 (Extended) Scenario 3: Range Trade Within Triangle Entry Conditions: Price tests triangle boundaries Rejection candle at support/resistance No breakout confirmation Trade Parameters: Buy Zone: $55.50-$56.00 (triangle support) Sell Zone: $58.50-$59.00 (triangle resistance) Stop Loss: Outside triangle boundaries Target: Opposite boundary Risk-Reward: ~1:1.5 Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade Wait for confirmed breakout - don't anticipate Thin holiday volumes = amplified moves Watch geopolitical headlines closely Oil is highly volatile - use appropriate size Scale out at targets Move stop to breakeven after first target Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below $54.98 (major support) Triangle breaks down with volume Ukraine peace deal announced OPEC+ increases production Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above $60.48 (major resistance) Triangle breaks up with volume Major supply disruption Venezuela situation escalates significantly Conclusion TVC:USOIL (WTI Crude) is trapped in a symmetrical triangle at $57.23, caught between geopolitical support and oversupply fundamentals. The pattern is compressing toward a breakout, with the apex approaching. The Numbers: Current Price: $57.23 YTD Performance: -18% (steepest drop since 2020) Weekly Performance: +3% (best since October) IEA 2026 Surplus Forecast: 4.0 million bpd Key Levels: $60.48 - MAJOR RESISTANCE (breakout level) $59.07 - Triangle upper boundary $57.23 - Current price $55.50 - Triangle lower boundary $54.98 - MAJOR SUPPORT (breakdown level) The Setup: Symmetrical triangle = neutral pattern. Geopolitical risks (Venezuela blockade, Ukraine strikes) provide support. Oversupply fundamentals (record surplus expected, US production near highs) cap upside. The breakout direction will determine the next major move. Strategy: NEUTRAL stance - wait for breakout Long above $59.07 (targets $60.48, $62, $65) Short below $55.00 (targets $53, $51, $50) Don't trade the middle Watch Venezuela and Ukraine headlines The triangle will resolve soon. Let the market show its hand.
TVC:USOIL
by officialjackofalltrades
WTI OIL on its 1D MA50 again. Sell signal.Last week (December 17, see chart below) we gave a strong Buy Signal on WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) after it hit and rebounded on the 8-month Support. The resulting rally easily hit our $58.50 Target and today the price tests the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the previous Lower High of the 5-month Channel Down. This is an automatic technical Sell Signal as at the same time the 1D RSI is reversing near its 4-month Resistance Zone. Our short-term Target is again the $55.20 Support. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
4
XNG/USD Trade Guide | Bullish Momentum Building🔥 XNG/USD (NATURAL GAS) — Bullish Trade Opportunity | Day / Swing Setup 📌 Asset Overview Asset: XNG/USD — Natural Gas Market: Energies | Commodities Trading Style: Day Trade / Swing Trade 📈 Trade Plan — BULLISH BIAS 🟢 Primary Bias: Bullish continuation 🟢 Market Structure: Demand strength holding above key zones 🟢 Volatility: Expanding (energy markets active) 🎯 Entry Strategy 💡 Entry: ➡️ YOU CAN ANY PRICE LEVEL ENTRY ➡️ Flexible execution based on your own confirmation model ➡️ Suitable for both scalpers & swing traders 🛑 Risk Management 🚨 Stop Loss: 3.900 ⚠️ This is thief SL 📝 Risk Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I am NOT recommending to follow only my SL. ✔️ Adjust stop loss based on your strategy, risk appetite, and account size. ✔️ Capital protection comes first. 💰 Profit Objective 🎯 Target: 4.500 📊 Target Logic: Strong resistance zone ahead Overbought conditions expected near highs Trap probability increases → book profits & escape smartly 📝 TP Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I am NOT recommending to follow only my TP. ✔️ Secure profits based on your plan & market behavior. 🔗 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH (Correlation Watchlist) Keep an eye on these $-denominated energy & USD drivers: 🛢️ Energy Correlation USOIL ( BLACKBULL:WTI ) → Strength supports energy sentiment UKOIL ( BLACKBULL:BRENT ) → Confirms global energy demand tone 💵 USD Correlation DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) 🔻 Weak USD = 🔺 Natural Gas supportive 🔺 Strong USD = ⚠️ May slow upside momentum 🏭 Energy Equity Proxy Energy sector indices / producers Institutional inflows into energy stocks often align with NG strength 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL & ECONOMIC FACTORS TO CONSIDER 🔥 Natural Gas–Specific Drivers 🌡️ Weather Outlook (US & Europe): Colder-than-normal forecasts = higher heating demand → bullish NG 🏭 Storage Levels: Lower-than-average inventories support upside pricing 🚢 LNG Export Demand: Strong U.S. LNG exports tighten domestic supply 💼 Macro & Economic Factors 🏦 Federal Reserve Policy: Rate cut expectations → weaker USD → supportive for commodities 📊 US Economic Data (GDP, PMI): Strong growth = higher industrial energy demand 🌍 Geopolitical Energy Risks: Supply disruptions amplify volatility & upside spikes 🧠 TRADER’S NOTE ✔️ This setup is directional, not predictive ✔️ Let price action confirm your execution ✔️ Manage risk like a professional, not a gambler 📌 If this analysis helps your trading, support it with a 👍 Like, 💾 Save, and 🗨️ Comment — it helps the idea reach more traders.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS
by The-Thief
Crude Oil – Sell around 58.90, target 57.00-56.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: The recommended strategy for today is to sell crude oil. Recent crude oil price fluctuations have been relatively small, and the fluctuations are mostly within a consolidation phase. The recommended strategy is to sell, as chasing this range-bound market is not advisable. Wait for a rebound to a higher point before considering selling. Today, pay attention to the levels around 58.90 and 59.50. Fundamental Analysis: These past few days have been a holiday, with few major data releases. However, the escalating US-Venezuela relations and the worsening Russia-Ukraine situation are providing short-term geopolitical support, significantly benefiting gold prices. Trading Recommendation: Crude Oil – Sell around 58.90, target 57.00-56.00
NYMEX:CL1!
by FlyingTowardsWealth
1
Weekly Hammer, 2026 Channel Exitthere are two critical levels that must be confirmed. The first is the baseline of the last three months, which represents the structural foundation of the current market phase. The second is the formation of a new baseline for the next three months, a level that will be validated and confirmed later in 2026. A green hammer candle forming next week is expected to act as the ignition point of this cycle, signaling the start of the move and providing the momentum for the broader formation. This setup points to a strong continuation, with a significant bullish push anticipated in the following week, culminating in a clearly confirmed, strong green candle on the first Monday of 2026.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Dr-Nat
LNG Week 52: -158 BCF Draw Deepens as Winter Demand Bites* Due to the platform's features, the charts are arranged in sequence from left to right, from the first to the eighth chart. The charts were created by our team and based on an analysis from Bloomberg and the EIA data. This analysis was conducted in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova, analyst of LSE. The natural gas market closes out Week 52 with continued winter pressure, as a forecast -158 BCF storage withdrawal for Week 51 (December 19) pushes inventories to 3,420 BCF-125 BCF below 2024 and 70 BCF under the 5-year average. The F26 contract expires with heightened volatility above the upper interquartile range, while the forward curve stabilizes long-term but diverges near-term. HDD+CDD values surge to 30-year highs before easing, driving demand amid stable production. Current prices compared to price dispersion 10 days before expiration, by month since 2010 The last days before the expiration of the F26 contract are marked by increased volatility, as in many historical years. The current price has significantly exceeded the upper limit of the historical interquartile range 10 days before expiration (exceeding the 75th percentile and approaching historical highs). This may signal strong buyer pressure or a change in market expectations, but it also increases the risk of a downward correction to the historical norm.   Forward curve compared to 2020-2025 The shape of the 2025 forward curve on nearby contracts is practically consistent with the 2023–2024 ranges, while the nearby F26 contract shows significant volatility. Current stocks and forecast for next week compared to 2020-2024 According to the forecast for week 51 (EIA report for the week ending December 19), a series of significant withdrawals is expected to continue. Gas stocks in underground storage facilities will decrease by -158 BCF, which is 35 BCF below the average for the past five years. At the same time, stock levels will reach 3,420 BCF, which is 125 BCF below the 2024 level and 70 BCF below the five-year average. HDD+CDD based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 Currently, the total HDD + CDD (heating and cooling degree days) indicators for all climatic regions of the United States are at the lower end of the range. According to meteorological models, the weather in the next two weeks will be within the average and moderately warm ranges of the 30-year climate norm. Daily supply/demand difference compared to 2014-2024 On December 24, the difference between supply and demand in 2025 continues to decline after abnormal growth and has fallen below the lower interquartile range for 2014-2024. Number of days for delivery from warehouses The graph shows the number of days of supply from storage alone, based on current consumption levels. As of December 24, reserves are sufficient for approximately 30 days, which is one day higher than in 2024, two days lower than the average, and remains stable around the average.   Filling level of European storage facilities The overall level of gas storage in Europe on December 24 continues to decline and stands at 66.1% (-2.7% for the week), which is 9.8% below the average level and 9.2% lower than last year. The lowest storage levels are observed in Croatia (41.7%), Latvia (50%), Denmark (52.9%), and the Netherlands (53.5%). The maximum levels are in Sweden (102%), Portugal (93.5%), Poland (85.7%), Romania (78.8%), and Italy (76.5%).   Electricity generation by source Compared to last week, gas generation in the US48 energy balance fell by 3% on December 24, 2025, remaining in the middle range at 35.9% of the total. The share of nuclear generation increased by 2.8% to 20.8% and is in the middle range. The share of coal generation fell by 2.5% and is close to its 5-year low of 16.8%. The share of wind generation fluctuated significantly over the past week, reaching 17.5% and settling at 13.9%. Solar generation accounts for 3.5% of the total.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by igorisaev
USOILSPOT H4 | Bullish Momentum To ExtendMomentum: Bullish The price is falling towards the buy entry, which aligns with the 23.6% Fib retracement, which adds significant strength to this level. Buy entry: 57.88 Pullback support 23.6% Fibonacci retracement Stop loss: 57.12 Pullback support 38.2% Fibonacci retracement Take profit: 59.27 Pullback resistance 78.6% Fibonacci retracement High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
TRADU:USOILSPOTLong
by Tradu