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Energy Commodities

Where Is Oil Heading To ? - /CL Analysis 1) Technical Perspective: Support & Resistance ~$65 was a support zone earlier (2021–2024). In 2025–26, that $65 area now often acts as resistance. Prices have come down toward $55 2) Fundamental Drivers Behind the Downtrend Oil has been in a multi-year decline from the highs seen in 2022 after the Russia–Ukraine war spike. A combination of oversupply and weaker demand has kept price pressure on: • 2025 saw a large annual price drop due to persistent oversupply and slow demand. • EIA and IEA reports project global oil supply continuing to exceed demand into 2026. This structural oversupply (positive global inventories) pushes the short-term bias lower unless demand surprises on the upside. 3) Geopolitical Drivers — Including Venezuela Recent news confirms that geopolitics remain a key wild card: The U.S. has taken actions around Venezuelan oil assets and plans to export Venezuelan crude, which could add supply and weigh on prices, especially if revitalisation occurs. Oil prices did tick up short-term on inventory draws and Venezuela focus, but long-term gains from Venezuelan production may be limited because infrastructure will take years to rebuild. Geopolitical tensions can spike oil temporarily, but unless supply physically tightens, the structure stays bearish. 4) OPEC / OPEC+ Decisions OPEC’s recent behaviour has been a big driver: In 2025, OPEC+ unwound production cuts, which contributed to oversupply and lower prices. For 2026: The OPEC+ view has shifted toward equilibrium, but global supply growth still challenges prices. If OPEC+ cuts output further or extends cuts, prices could find stronger support around current levels ($55–$65). If OPEC+ maintains or increases production while demand stays soft, that supports a drop toward $45–$50. So OPEC policy is one of the most important catalysts, it fundamentally shifts supply. 5) Demand Risks & Macro Conditions Global demand remains under pressure: Chinese economic weakness and slower global growth reduce oil demand. And EIA forecasts oversupply growth in 2026. Lower demand growth + abundant supply = structural downside risk. 6) Link to US Dollar, Inflation & Rates Higher real rates / stronger USD → oil tends to weaken: Oil is USD-denominated. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Tight monetary policy (higher rates) can slow economic growth and demand for oil. Lower real rates / weaker USD → oil tends to strengthen: Cheaper USD can support crude prices if demand fundamentals improve. Right now, with US economic strength and mixed inflation data elsewhere, it’s not certain the Fed will aggressively cut. If inflation re-accelerates and the Fed resists rate cuts or even raises, that could strengthen the USD and pressure oil lower. However, if the Fed eases later, weaker real rates could help commodities broadly, but oil’s supply/demand story still matters more. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Asset prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not a licensed financial advisor or professional trader. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by bossout10
13
OKLO: The "AI Energy" Play – Falling Wedge Breakout Confirmed1. Fundamental Thesis: The AI Power Crunch Macro Driver: Hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, OpenAI) are facing a massive energy cliff. AI data centers require 24/7 baseload power that wind/solar cannot provide. Nuclear SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) are the only viable zero-carbon solution. The "Altman Premium": Backed by Sam Altman, OKLO benefits from a unique "moat" of access to Silicon Valley's biggest energy customers. Financials: While still pre-revenue (commercialization ~2027), the company holds ~$1B in cash (post-raise), providing a 7-year runway to weather the regulatory phase. The "Build, Own, Operate" model promises recurring utility-like revenue at tech-like margins. 2. Technical Analysis: Classic Reversal Pattern: The stock has broken out of a multi-month Falling Wedge consolidation. This pattern often signals the end of a correction and the start of a new impulse leg. Momentum: MACD: Bullish crossover confirmed on the daily timeframe. Volume: Buying volume is returning as price reclaims the key psychological zones. Squeeze: Momentum indicators are shifting from bearish compression to expansion. Price Action: We have successfully reclaimed the $80–$90 support zone. The path of least resistance is now higher. 🎯 Trade Setup: Current Price: ~$97.60 ✅ Signal: Breakout verified. Trade bleiben (Stay Long). Invalidation (Stop Loss): Close below $78.00 (re-entering the wedge). 🚀 Targets: $135.00 (0.618 Fib Retracement & Psychological resistance) $180.00+ (Retest of All-Time Highs / Blue Sky Breakout)
NYSE:OKLOLong
by enakocapital
1
WTI M15 Bullish Continuation After H1 FVG Hold📝 Description WTI crude remains in a strong short-term bullish structure on M15 after an impulsive expansion. Price has pulled back in a controlled manner and is holding above the H1 FVG / BPR zone, suggesting this move is a healthy retracement, not distribution. The higher lows indicate continuation potential rather than exhaustion. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bullish Preferred Setup: • Entry (Buy): 58.03 • Stop Loss: Below 57.8 • TP1: 58.36 • TP2: 58.60 • TP3: 58.75 Acceptance below the H1 FVG invalidates the bullish continuation idea. ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Clean impulsive leg followed by corrective pullback • Price respecting H1 FVG + BPR as demand • No bearish CHOCH on LTF ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary WTI is consolidating above a key HTF demand zone after a strong markup. As long as price holds above the H1 FVG, the market favors continuation toward upside liquidity rather than deeper retracement. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Oil sentiment remains supported by steady demand expectations and ongoing geopolitical sensitivity. With no immediate bearish catalyst and technical structure aligned, price action favors trend continuation, especially according to geopolitical situation in in Iran and Venezuela. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by TFlab
WTIUSD: Bearish Drop to 54.66?As the previous analysis worked exactly as predicted, CFI:WTI is eyeing a bearish continuation on the 4-hour chart , with price testing resistance after lower highs in a downward channel, converging with a potential entry zone that could spark downside momentum if sellers defend amid recent volatility. This setup suggests a pullback opportunity in the downtrend, targeting lower support levels with approximately 1:4 risk-reward .🔥 Entry between 56.94–57.22 for a short position (entry from current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 54.66 . Set a stop loss at a daily close above 57.5 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:4 . Monitor for confirmation via a bearish candle close below entry with rising volume, leveraging oil's volatility in the channel.🌟 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry (Short): 56.94 – 57.22 (Entry from current price is valid with proper risk & position sizing.) 🎯 Target: • 54.66 ❌ Stop Loss: • Daily close above 57.50 ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: • ~ 1:4 ⚠️ This analysis is the request of one of my followers . 💡 Your view? Does WTI roll over toward 54.66, or do buyers attempt another squeeze above channel resistance? 👇
CFI:WTIShort
by Master_Hunter
4
WTI Crude Oil – Inverse H&S Targeting Neckline BreakSummary: WTI is attempting a bullish reversal after forming an inverse Head & Shoulders on the H1 chart, with price pushing back toward a key neckline zone around 57.00. Technical Analysis: Price previously respected a descending channel, but recent bearish momentum stalled near the lower range, leading to a clear inverse Head & Shoulders structure. The left shoulder and head were formed after a sharp sell-off, followed by a higher low forming the right shoulder — a classic reversal signal. The neckline near 57.00–57.10 is the key level to watch. Current bullish candles show increasing buying pressure, suggesting an attempt to reclaim this level. A confirmed break and hold above the neckline would validate the pattern and open the door for continuation toward the upper channel area. Failure here would keep price range-bound and vulnerable to another pullback toward 56.20–55.80 support. Fundamental Context: Crude oil remains sensitive to OPEC+ production guidance, geopolitical risks, and near-term USD strength driven by Fed expectations. Any supportive headlines on supply tightening or softer dollar could help fuel the bullish breakout. Key Levels: Resistance / Neckline: 58.10 - 58.60 Bullish Targets: 60 → 62 (Making a HH in 4H timeframe) Support: 56.20 → 55.80 Invalidation: Sustained move below 55.80 Takeaway: Bullish if WTI breaks and holds above 57.10 — inverse H&S confirms and upside opens. Bearish if price rejects the neckline and loses 56.20, signaling continuation of the broader downtrend. #WTI #Oil #CrudeOil #PriceAction #ChartPatterns #TradingView #Commodities
TVC:USOIL
by uncleHamid
CRUDE OIL Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! CRUDE OIL is trading into a well-defined horizontal supply area where smart money distribution is evident. Buy-side liquidity has been taken, and a bearish reaction from premium suggests continuation toward lower liquidity pools below recent lows. -------------------- Stop Loss: 58.90$ Take Profit: 57.74$ Entry: 58.42$ Time Frame: 4H -------------------- Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:USOILShort
by TopTradingSignals
1
Can geopolitics rescue oil from five-year lows?At some point this year there could be a strong opportunity to buy crude oil, as prices near USD 55 per barrel are potentially unsustainable. WTI crude oil futures rose more than 3.5% on Thursday to trade above USD 57.9 per barrel, rebounding from a two-day slide. The move, however, was not enough to recover the losses earlier in the week, and prices remain close to the five-year low set in December. Uncertainty around Venezuelan exports resurfaced after Washington announced plans to maintain indefinite control over the country’s crude sales. Meanwhile, in Iran, protests have been reported in Tehran and other cities as inflation rises and the currency weakens, adding another layer of geopolitical risk for oil. Unlike Venezuela, Iran continues to export roughly 2 million barrels per day and produces between 3.2 and 3.5 million barrels per day, contributing a meaningful volume of global supply.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull Markets
BullishBullish trend will be officially confirmed when price decisively breaches above $70. This is a great place (in my opinion) to buy if looking to speculate. I entered multiple positions this morning that will benefit if I am correct. Complex corrections are extremely difficult to get accurate wave counts on, but I feel pretty good about this one overall. We could of course not be finished with the final wave Y down and have a bit more to go before, but we will see! Let me know what you all think. Cheers,
TVC:USOILLong
by MonetaryRebel
Bulls got deflectedBulls got rejected on their last move with the gap down on Sunday open, but after yesterday’s antics we have still formed a higher high after Tuesday’s bottom and are now in 2 scenarios until one is rejected. Bull Case: A.) We break micro ascending channel at $3.7. 4 hour macd and RSI are still in a zone to push further. Daily hasn’t even flipped positive yet and when it does we will see some real legs start. B.) We retest $3.32 and head back up making an official double bottom and downtrend becomes easier to break around $3.6 Bear Case: A.) We hit $3.7 but can’t break over ascending downtrend and retrace below $3.32 B.) We break below current micro ascending channel and continue down on current downtrend to $3.00 or worse RSI and MACD on daily still has room to go down a but more. Good luck all, we will reanalyze on Monday
NYMEX:NGG2026Long
by tirsobust
USOIL Bearish Continuation Setup | Technical & Macro ViewUSOIL (WTI Crude) Bear Plays 🔥 | Oversupply + Economic Cues 📉 | Day/Swing Trade Tech + Fundamental Edge 🎯 Asset: USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) — Energies Market Trade Opportunity (Day/Swing) 📉 Bias: Bearish setup — continuation pressure confirmed 📍 Current Price Context: ~57.3 USD/bbl (WTI) with downside structural momentum below key dynamic resistance, trend shows continued bearish bias with decaying demand and oversupply pressure. 🧠 TRADE PLAN 🔻 Entry: Any favorable lower level entry within bear momentum zones — look for rejects at lower highs and trend continuation. ❌ Stop-Loss (SL): This is thief SL @ 57.50 Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) Adjust your SL based on your strategy & own risk, ⚠️ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) iam not recommended to set only my SL. its your own choice you can make money then take money at your own risk. 🎯 Target: Police force act as a strong support + oversold + trap + correction is there so kindly escape with profits OUR target @ 55.00 ⚠️ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) iam not recommended to set only my TP. its your own choice you can make money then take money at your own risk. 🔁 RELATED PAIRS / WATCHLIST & CORRELATIONS 📌 BLACKBULL:BRENT — If Brent extends weakness, USOIL often accelerates downside. 📌 OANDA:USDCAD — CAD tends to strengthen when oil drops, watch for confirmation. 📌 Energy Sector ETF ( AMEX:XLE ) — Weakness here often previews crude downside risk. 📌 NATGAS ( VANTAGE:NG ) — Not directly correlated but sentiment flow can affect broader energy trading appetite. 📌 Oil ETF ( AMEX:USO ) — Tracks broader oil sentiment and institutional positioning. 📌 TECHNICAL EDGE — KEY POINTS 📉 Descending channel dominance — confirmed lower highs & lower lows. 📊 Price respects dynamic resistance with weak bullish momentum. ⚠️ Breakdown of intermediate support can accelerate price toward lower demand zones. 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL & ECONOMIC FACTORS (CURRENT CONTEXT) 📉 Oversupply Pressure: Global crude supply continues to exceed demand, keeping price rallies capped and sellers in control. 📦 Inventory Dynamics: U.S. crude inventory changes show mixed signals, but structural supply remains elevated. 🌍 Geopolitical Watch: Ongoing geopolitical developments and production policy shifts remain volatility triggers. 📉 Demand Side Risk: Slower global growth expectations and industrial demand softness continue to weigh on crude. 📅 Economic Calendar Impact: U.S. labor data, inflation data, and central bank guidance can influence USD strength and risk sentiment, directly impacting oil prices. 🔔 KEY MARKET THEMES (LATEST) 🛢️ Oil prices remain pressured under supply-heavy outlook 📉 Sellers defending lower highs aggressively ⚠️ Volatility expected around macro data releases
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by The-Thief
Crude Oil – Sell around 58.50, with a target of 56.00-55.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Recent crude oil buying has been largely ineffective. Despite support from fundamentals and data, there has been little upward movement, only small fluctuations. Sell crude oil at 58.50 today. The chart pattern indicates short-term consolidation, with resistance around 60.00. A break above 62 might open new buying opportunities; otherwise, the outlook remains bearish. Fundamental Analysis: The previous ADP employment data has reassured the market, and expectations for the non-farm payrolls report have largely been priced in. Trading Recommendation: Crude Oil – Sell around 58.50, with a target of 56.00-55.00.
NYMEX:CL1!
by FlyingTowardsWealth
WTI(20260109)Today's AnalysisMarket News: On Tuesday, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average hit record closing highs, marking the first buy signal from Dow Theory in over a year. Technical strategists believe this confirms the bull market that began in late 2022 remains firmly established, even as some previously high-performing AI-related stocks have recently faced pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average's last record closing high was on January 5th, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average's record high was even further back. Dow Jones market data shows that the index's last record closing high was on November 25th, 2024. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Threshold: 57.58 Support and Resistance Levels: 60.26 59.26 58.61 56.54 55.89 54.89 Trading Strategy: If the price breaks above 58.61, consider buying with a first target price of 59.26. If the price breaks below 57.58, consider selling with a first target price of 56.54.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FlyingTowardsWealth
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 54.53 (Wave 5).Colleagues, the price is still forming a downward impulse of five waves, and given the geopolitical situation and rather loud news, we need to be cautious. Therefore, I believe that wave “5” will update the minimum of wave ‘3’, but I will not set a distant goal - I want to see the price in the support area of 54.53. This will be enough to confirm the structure of the momentum and think about the continuation of the large “ABC” correction. It is quite possible that we may see a small correction to the 57.00 area before the start of the downward movement. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
5
Sell crude oil around 58.50, with a target of 57.00-55.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Recent crude oil data and fundamentals support buying opportunities, but crude oil is still slowly declining. The outlook remains bearish today; sell on rallies. Watch the minor resistance level at 58.50. A break below 55.00 would open up further downside potential. If this level is broken, consider selling. Fundamental Analysis: Yesterday's ADP employment data was -2.9, compared to an expected 4.7 and a result of 4.1. While this appears bullish in the short term, it actually signals a sell opportunity. Good employment data tends to cause gold to fall. Crude oil's EIA inventory data also fell to -338, compared to an expected 44. Trading Recommendation: Sell crude oil around 58.50, with a target of 57.00-55.00.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FlyingTowardsWealth