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Energy Commodities

WTI with bearish momentum dominatingDue to a larger-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories, WTI prices fell. From the daily chart perspective, oil prices have broken below the lower edge of the trading range, and the medium-term objective trend is downward. Currently, oil prices are fluctuating near the lower edge of this range. The fast and slow lines of the MACD indicator are below the zero line, with bearish momentum dominating. It is expected that the probability of oil prices moving in an oscillating downward pattern in the medium term is relatively high. Sell 60 - 60.2 TP 59 - 59.5 SL 60.5 Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
CFI:WTIShort
by Clarke_analysis
USOil Market Analysis📉 Core Market Drivers The current weakness in oil prices is primarily weighed down by the combined impact of the following two factors: 1. Fading Geopolitical Risk Premium Israel and Hamas have signed a ceasefire agreement, and Israel has begun withdrawing troops from the Gaza Strip. This development has largely erased the geopolitical risk premium that previously underpinned oil prices. 2. Loosening Supply-Demand Dynamics OPEC+ recently agreed to raise production quotas, while oil output from non-OPEC+ producers remains stable—stoking growing concerns over a market supply surplus. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released a bearish forecast, stating that the supply-demand imbalance will lead to a buildup of oil inventories. 💎 Trading Strategy Recommendations sell@58.30 tp 57.50
TVC:USOILShort
by Frey_James
Is Crude Oil Setting Up for a Major Bearish Reversal?🛢️ XTI/USD “WTI” – Bearish Redistribution Zone Incoming (Thief Strategy Inside) 📉 Setup Overview Market: XTI/USD (WTI crude oil) Bias: Bearish confirmed — we’re looking for re-distribution / supply pressure to take control Trade Type: Swing / Day Trade hybrid 🎯 Entry Plan (Thief-Layer Strategy) I use a layering / multiple limit order approach (aka “Thief Strategy”). You may use any price level as entry, but here’s my preferred ladder: Sell Limit @ 61.500 Sell Limit @ 61.000 Sell Limit @ 60.500 Sell Limit @ 60.000 Sell Limit @ 59.500 (You may extend more layers if you like) You don’t need to hit all layers — just get partial fills, ride the move downward. 🚫 Stop Loss Thief’s SL: 62.500 ⚠️ Note to Thief OG’s: I’m not forcing you to follow my SL. You choose what works. Make money, take money — at your own risk. 🎯 Target We see police barricade as a strong support zone + oversold trap possibility. So primary target: 57.000 ⚠️ Note to Thief OG’s: Don’t blindly hold to my TP. If price gives you your gains early, escape with your money — don’t wait for perfection. 🔍 Related Pairs & Correlations AMEX:USO or USOIL (oil ETFs / indices) – real-world crude correlation $BRENT/USD – watch for strength or weakness divergence AMEX:XOP / AMEX:OIH (oil & gas sector indices) – sentiment in energy names Key point: if Brent weakens while WTI breaks down, it reinforces the bias. 📌 Key Technical Notes We’re waiting for ** redistribution / supply zone** to hold — a retest or failure bounce is ideal setup. Oversold conditions + a “trap” candle (fake breakout) strengthen the move. Use layering to average in, not “all-in” at once. Be ready for whipsaws around support zones; partial exits can help. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” Disclaimer: This is Thief-style trading strategy just for fun. I am not giving financial advice. Trade at your own decision and risk. #WTI #CrudeOil #XTIUSD #EnergyTrading #OilStrategy #Layering #SwingTrade #DayTrade #BearishBias #ThiefStrategy
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by The-Thief
LNG Week 41: 89 BCF Storage Surge Drives Mild Weather Trends*Due to the platform's features, the charts are arranged in sequence from left to right, from the first to the Eighth chart. The charts were created by our team and based on an analysis from Bloomberg and the EIA data. Current prices compared to price dispersion 10 days before expiration by month since 2010 The NGX25 contract is trading above its 10-day average and showing increased volatility during this period. Quotes for 2026 winter contracts remain above the upper limit of the interquartile range.  Forward curve compared to 2020-2025 The shape of the forward curve in 2025 demonstrates stability and converges even more closely with the configurations recorded in 2023 and 2024 for comparable dates. This trend is particularly evident in contracts with delivery in three years or more, where prices are converging steadily toward historical levels. Current stocks and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024 According to the forecast for week 40 (September 29 – October 5), gas reserves in underground storage facilities will increase by +89 BCF, reaching 3,560 BCF, which exceeds the figure for the same period last year. The growth in reserves is supported by high production volumes and mild weather conditions.  Weekly HDD+CDD sum based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 In week 40 of this year, HDD+CDD indicators for the continental United States are still below the average values for the last 30 years of observations, but there has been a significant increase compared to last week's forecast, which is clearly visible in the graph for 2025. The forecast for week 41 also indicates that this trend will continue: a further decline in values relative to historical levels is expected, which may ease pressure on prices by increasing demand and energy prices. Explanation of the graph: the candles represent quantiles for 30 years from 1994 to 2024. Red dots represent 2024, green dots represent 2025, and blue dots represent the 2025 forecast.   Weekly HDD+CDD sum based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 by region A steady trend is observed in the leading regions: HDD+CDD values in 2025 remain below the historical averages for 1995–2024 in virtually all areas. The lag in indicators corresponds to the generally mild weather of the season and reduced energy demand for heating and cooling, which is recorded in all major regions, but there is an upward trend that has been growing from revision to revision over the last 6 days.  Weekly total supply/demand difference compared to 2014-2024 This week, the difference between supply and demand in 2025 is at the average for 2014–2024, but lower than in 2024.   Number of days of supply from storage facilities The graph shows the number of days of supply from storage facilities alone, based on current consumption levels. In 2025, February–March reserves will be at 10–18 days, which is comparable to or slightly below average. From May to August, stocks will increase to 25–35 days, which is slightly below the 10-year average. By the beginning of October 2025, the number of days of consumption from stocks will increase to 35 days, which is at the lower end of the IQR. The moderate level of storage adequacy to meet current demand creates a fundamentally tighter market, where even moderate production disruptions or minor spikes in demand can cause disproportionate price reactions, especially in late winter and early spring.  Anomalies in weather (HDD+CDD) and fundamental factors Overall, fundamental factors and weather anomalies are within the expected range, with no systemic deviations, except for isolated declines in LNG exports from 07-10 caused by technical work at the Sabine terminal. *This analysis was conducted in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova, analyst of LSE.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by igorisaev
Oil Market: Bearish to neutral — potential for a rebound if $6,0Oil Market: Bearish to neutral — potential for a rebound if $6,000 holds Crude and gasoline prices fell on Oct. 9 as market sentiment shifted amid rising supply expectations. OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 137,000 bpd starting November, well below expectations of a 500,000 bpd hike. The group continues to unwind earlier cuts, aiming to restore 1.66 million bpd of production by year-end. OPEC’s September output rose 400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd, a 2.5-year high. On Oct. 10 supply concerns eased after Israel accepted a U.S.-brokered cease-fire deal in Gaza, reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Still, new U.S. sanctions on Iran—targeting over 50 entities linked to oil and LPG trade—helped limit further losses. Russian supply disruptions remain a supportive factor after drone attacks forced shutdowns at key refineries, while floating storage volumes fell 7% week-on-week to 82.8 million barrels, signaling tighter near-term supply. Meanwhile, Iraq’s plan to resume Kurdish exports (up to 500,000 bpd) could weigh on prices, offsetting some of the geopolitical support. EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories 4.5% below the 5-year average, with production up 0.9% w/w to 13.63 million bpd, near record highs. Active U.S. oil rigs slipped by two to 422, just above the four-year low. Outlook: Crude oil continues to display a bearish short-term structure, extending its recent downtrend after failing to sustain above the $6,300–$6,350 resistance zone. The price has now revisited the local support area around $6,050–$6,000, which has acted as a key pivot level in recent sessions. ANZ Research expects near-term downside risks amid higher OPEC+ supply and weaker refinery demand, though low stockpiles outside China may cushion prices into 2026. A clean rebound from $6,000 could trigger a short-covering move toward $6,200–$6,300.
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by ProfessorSingapore
USOIL: Price breaks out of sideways – sell on pullbackTo better understand my current outlook on USOIL, please refer to my previous higher-timeframe and fundamental analyses. This could be a position trade in anticipation of a larger downtrend on the daily timeframe, but there's risk involved due to the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report this Friday. * Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide. ** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals. *** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors – static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) – and determined based on the trader’s discretion. **** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it. Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨ George Vann @ ZuperView
FX:USOILShort
by ZuperView
USOIL H4 | Bearish Drop OffUSOIL is reacting off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to the downside. Sell entry is at 61.50, which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 62.71, which is a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 59.16, which lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:USOILShort
by Tradu
1
Plug - Hear me outProposing a trade on a shit-co like plug may earn some laughs but hear me out for a second. In the right light and with enough alcohol, she could pass for a strong six. I'd do her. Jokes, aside, due to the frantic rush to solve AI datacenter energy problem, power companies have been getting a lot of play lately, some have real growth potential, while others may be the speculative dream of degenerates like myself. A 25 year old company, about to hit the figurative wall (DiCapiro joke...slaps knee), has suddenly seen an influx of buying activity and what looks to be increasing volume following a look below and fail of a weekly box. According to box rules, I can't ignore this trade. Plug has been in an area of consolidation for years. It's completed atleast two look above and look below and fails of the larger boxed range. I'm not saying that this stock is going to the moon, but if It can reclaim the top of the mini weekly box and hold the midpoint of the larger box then $8 seems like a realistic target to me. Now, this stock would easily revert back to the volume point of control (VPOC) around $2 or lbaf again or simply fail miserably below the boxes...then all you degens will be living in boxes. If we do see 2.50 - $2 again, I'd love to take an entry there (a lbaf of vpoc would be nice too). Otherwise, I'll be monitor this name for the mentioned trades. My posts are for shits and giggles. I'm just a guy with an interest and a celcius addiction. ~The Villain
NASDAQ:PLUGLong
by The_Villain_777
Natural Gas Pummeled on Inventories Natural gas saw continued heavy selling today off the inventory report. Inventories came in at 80B which is 4Billion higher than the estimate. This is showing a little bit less of demand pull. The Weekly 200 MA was the technical rejection zone for Nat Gas. We will be live trading Nat Gas tomorrow if we see another sell day in the commodity. I'm watching for a liquidity sweep of the daily 200 MA. Nat Gas Bulls need to defend the 20 MA at minimum.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
USOIL H4 | Bullish Reversal at Key SupportBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has bounced off the buy entry, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to the upside. Buy entry is at 61.60, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 60.22, whic is a swing low support. Take profit is at 63.69, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:USOILSPOTLong
by Tradu
3
Gold/Oil Signaling Market Is In A Super Bubble Gold = Fear Oil = how strong the economy is. Except for COVID we have never seen such an extreme reading. Yet people are buying up stocks like we will never again be able to produce another stock again as long as we live! Tulips! Here are just a few of the factors to consider that make this indicator important. Why This Indicator Matters: Key Factors at a Glance Gold’s Surge Signals a Shift Gold has soared nearly 60% year-to-date, adding a staggering $10 trillion in market capitalization. This rally effectively erases all the stock market gains made since May 2021, including those driven by AI enthusiasm and speculative tech runs. USD Can Only Be Measured Against Gold As the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar’s real value is best gauged in terms of gold. This is a critical point—because when gold rises this dramatically, it reflects monetary inflation. A large part of the stock market rally has been driven by an expanding money supply, not true value creation. Curiously, this inflation hasn’t shown up in oil prices, which have collapsed, despite geopolitical risks. More on that below. The Dollar’s Worst Year in Decades 2025 marks one of the most significant declines for the U.S. dollar in recent history. Its role as the world reserve currency (WRC) has diminished—from 85% in the 1970s to just 50% today. Trade wars and tariffs are only accelerating this trend. Monetary Inflation Drives Stock Prices Stock markets are being lifted by monetary inflation, not organic growth. Stocks can be created endlessly—unlike gold. That makes gold a true inflation benchmark. The stock market’s rise is, in large part, a mirage, reflecting debased currency, not real productivity. Oil Isn’t Behaving as Expected—Why? Typically, when the dollar weakens, oil prices rise—because more dollars are needed to buy the same barrel of oil. But right now, oil prices are soft. Why? Global demand is weak, outpaced by supply. Even the Russia-Ukraine war hasn’t changed that dynamic. In fact, Russia is now importing gasoline, as Ukrainian forces continue to target and disable refining capacity. Here’s why this matters: when oil wells are opened, they can't just be turned off. If the refiners are destroyed and the oil has nowhere to go—it’s wasted. That’s a strategic win for Ukraine. The Disconnect Between Stock Prices and Profits While inflation has pushed stock prices higher, it hasn’t translated into equivalent profit growth. Example: If a stock goes from $10 to $20 due to inflation, you'd expect earnings to go from $1 to $2 to maintain the same P/E ratio. Instead, the earnings yield is just 3.2%—a historical low. That’s a major red flag. As pilots would say: WTF, over? Here’s the likely explanation: The money hasn’t reached consumers—it's concentrated in the hands of wealthy savers and leveraged investors, who are buying more stocks to sell to the next buyer willing to lever up even more. It’s a classic feedback loop—and a superbubble reminiscent of the tulip mania era. The Smart Money Knows What's Coming As this imbalance grows more obvious, central banks and institutional investors are quietly increasing their gold holdings—well above the pace of supply growth. So when Gold/Oil (two important commodities) completely disconnect like this, and Gold explodes up like this, you'd better take notice! Lastly, it takes 100 ounces to buy a new home. Last time this occurred was in 1978 ish, 2011, and now! Debt to GDP in 76 was 33%, 2011 was 99% and today 126% It is not the same animal as the past. GTFO & STFO! No matter where the prices for stocks go! CAUTION!!!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RealMacro
42