Get started

Entrypoint

A.O. Smith; awaiting Q1 EPS results to enter a long positionA.O. Smith corp. has a history of stable EPS growth; however, the Corona lockdown is likely to affect the EPS in 2020 and maybe the consecutive year’s expected growth. In FY 2009, the company traded at a P/E ratio of 13 in average. Taking a very pessimistic perspective, one could argue that the economy will experience a recession similar to the one in 2008, that the P/E ratio will fall as the future growth perspectives turn negative. At the same time yearly EPS fall to $1.7, which would justify the stock price falling to $1.7*13 = $22.1. Shortly after the recession as future prospects get better and the company is able to generate higher EPS, we could expect both annual EPS and P/E ratio to recover and the share price to bounce back to $2.6*19 = 49.4$. This is an extreme perspective and a more realistic movement of the share price could be: share price falling to $1.5*19 = $28.5 (within April 2020) and bouncing back to $2.23*19 = 42,3 $ by the end of 2021. Buying idea Option 1 Option 2 Entry price $28.5 $22.5 Take profit $42.75 $49.5 Max expected holding period 18-months 18-months Profit 50% 220% I`ll buy the stock as soon as it hits $28.5. Good luck!
NYSE:AOSLong
by PeterLang_7
USDJPY analysisUSDJPY 108.45 breakdown level of the trend line of the previous model. Now it is a support level. Consolidation of USDJPY under 108.1 there is a high probability of reaching 107.00. Above 109.70, there is a high probability of reaching 111.30. Levels for buy by the pentagram 107.37 / 108.10, levels for sell 110.24 / 110.69 Sell from the top levels to the targets at the bottom, buy from the targets at the bottom towards the top levels. Remember the higher plan levels (107 & 111.30) reference points 108.25 / 108.38 / 109.04 / 109.16 / 109.59 hypothetical support/resistance points vertical lines - forecast of high/low in time (a local spike is possible, but not necessary). Forecast of coordinates&time depending on the direction of movement high 109.86 / low 108.50.
by Amazonka777
LONG on BTC : 3 Important support levels for short termHere it is the 3 important levels for bitcoin. Every support level that I will mention below is pretty much become a psychological area for bitcoin (green zone). each levels are having a confluence with the fibonacci levels. Here are the details for every levels and how I divide my capital to enter this long position. 1st level The area of 50% fibonacci levels, which moving align with the resistance turning support based on previous break out period on October 18th. I will put 25% of my capital to enter long position here. 2nd level The area of golden pocket zone. However, we must consider this level as the major support (8090 - 8070). Put another 25% capital as the 1st averaging action. 3rd level Is the most exciting level. This level consist of the higher body closed considering the top of the impulse wave 1, 78.6 fibonacci retracement level as the flavor of the year, and the cross point met between the green dotted line and the lower line of up trend channel. I will put extra 50% of my total capital if the price touch this level
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by junosats
One Last Hunt Before It HappensThe time has come. It is the decision time not only for Bitcoin but I believe for alt-coins too. For a trailer of the upcoming ideas and TA: it is probably the time for Bitcoin to decide which direction to take. But before it takes a route to any of these directions, there seems to be a last hunt. It is not a stop-loss hunt but more of a hunt for over-excitement in the market for each direction. If Bitcoin is about to make new highs, there will be a last test of a major support before it goes higher to 11,800-12,000 range. On the other scenario, if it's over for Bitcoin rise, there will be a last test of a major resistance before it drops further to 9,500-10,000 range. Short On the image below, start with the volume bars and see how volume diminishes on each try to make new highs. First it was rejected from 14,000, followed by a rejection from 13,000 and lastly it wasn't able to settle above 12,000. Tops are getting smaller as the volume decreases. This is one alarming signal to be cautious. Long-1 Unless R1 trend line is broken, we don't have strong proof for bull side. However, price was never able to consolidate between R1-R2 trend lines after it breaks above R2 trend line. This is not the case for the last run to 12,000. Price once again got rejected from R1 trend line but this time it was able to find support from R2-trend line. This is also a point to watch out to determine overall position on Bitcoin, rather it is going to be a fall stage on long term or it does act as a strong support to push the prices way above where it is now. So, this might be more consolidation before another bull rally. Key Levels to Watch Out for a Long/Short Position I am not considering going long in near future because of the fact that we broke below the orange triangle and this break will have some consequences in near future. So it is more possible to see a downward movement rather than an upward one. However, this doesn't mean that the price cannot jump to 12,000 range again but the probability of this happening is too low to take the risk of a long trade. To reduce the risk of a possible long position, it is better to wait for price to find support between 10,750-10,900 range. 10,750 range may be used as a stop-loss for this long. But first, I need to see that this range is acting as a support. If I also see a bullish divergence on 15m or 1h chart, I may increase the size of my long position. But if price first tries to break above 12,000 but fails and then comes back to 10,800 range, I will not take the long. If price tries to push 11,800 range and gets weak to break through, I will take a short position, probably with more volume than the long position volume I am considering to take. However, as in the long position case, price increase should happen first. If price first goes to 10,800 range and finds support and then comes to 11,800-12,000. I will not take the short. Three key price levels to watch out for are from MAs. 50MA and 100MA are key levels. I am more incline to say that 50MA will be broken and 100MA will be the main support. These levels correspond to 10,900 and 9,6000 respectively. 3rd key price point is the MA21 on weekly. You can check MA21 on historical data when Bitcoin was on a bull market. Bitcoin tends to find support from MA21 on weekly but it is too early to speculate about this price level which currently sits at 8,400. Long Entry: 10,800-10,900 range is the entry if price directly drops to this level before it tries to break above 12,000 again. Stop-loss is around 10,700 with a target price 11,700. Short Entries: I will have 3 different entries for my short positions. I will keep on shorting Bitcoin until it goes to 12,050 range since I am more keen to believe that Bitcoin drop will stretch way further than this, probably below 11,000. if it goes below 10,000, the retracement may go even down to 8,500 range which seems quite possible to me. 1st entry point: 11,625-11,725 range and this will be the point where I put majority of the volume, 2nd entry point: 11,975, and 3rd entry point: 12,050. I will still keep considerable amount of volume to go short on 12,400 range since this is the range that has to be broken if Bitcoin wants to settle above 12,000. In any case, when price reaches this level, there will be some retracement for me to determine if the short idea is failed and I should close my position. This retracement may find support above 12,000 and this is the reason why I keep majority of my short orders about 12,400 range. In any case, I want to close my short with some profit. Lastly, I have 2 major points to believe that a Bitcoin drop is more probable. First, on the bigger picture, all I see is exhaustion. Exhaustion in the price and more importantly in the volume. Bitcoin can trick you quite easily and we may see huge volume, coming out of nowhere but for now, we don't have such volume to make me believe that last run-ups were getting stronger in that sense. Second and more loose idea is that Goldman Sachs has revealed their expectations on the next Bitcoin move and it shows a 11,390 target price. Their plan worked fine about the price finding support about 11,000 however these kind of news about the market, I believe, creates more bias towards the opposite direction. I am more tend to take the opposite direction than what these guys are taking/telling you that they took. Goldman Sachs news: www.coindesk.com Good luck on your trades!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by UnknownUnicorn4649511
140% Return in One Week! Am I a Wizard? In this post, I talk about what happened in Bitcoin and how we positioned ourselves, upcoming Bitcoin stages, and also define some conditions for the alt-season and speculate an idea for the near future. Last Week: Firstly, I am not a wizard but we did actually make 140% return in last week. Here's a short reminder of how we've done it and this is probably the last time we remember these moments because the upcoming phase will be different. Difference mostly stems from the increasing volume. It is still healthy to have a reminder of the last week's patterns to be able to clearly spot the changes in the market. Underlying reason for my upcoming ideas is that I am expecting a retracement phase. If the price has already found its support to break above 12,000-12,100, all the upcoming ideas lose its validity. First signal that caused me to turn bullish from bearish was price breaking above 10,900 and by doing so, it break through the mid-level of the descending/blue trend line, cherry trend line. I also defined the last point for bears to hold on was the same range there were no prominent daily or weekly resistance points after. It was all clear up to 11,500. Price had a rest after breaking key resistance levels and I positioned my orders on the retracement of this rest. All my trades have x10 leverage. Below are the trades I took: Buy-1@10,835 and Buy-2@10,645 Sell-1@10,980 (25% return) Sell-2@11,405 (65% return) 45% average return We had an average of 45% return from these trades however it could be better. Problem was not the entry points but I had early exits. My first mistake was to think that golden trend line will be the first point to be tested but price just went through it. However we were still able to go for another long on the S/R flip of the golden trend-line. But I have to admit that I wasn't brave enough to put more volume on this trade and kept it mid-volume. But I was lucky enough to be at sleep when the price topped above 12,000 and it was already hovering around 12,250 when I woke up. What I saw was that the all trend-lines have been broken, all bears were down however we were further away from the broken trade-channel tops. Price seemed to having an overshoot since the broken levels have never been tested as support levels. All these signals were traded as below: Buy@11,620 Sell@12,280 (56% return) But it was too risky to open a short position above 12,000. Both the bar amplitude and the volume looked strong when price broke above the key resistance levels. At this point, price had a $1000 retracement that made me believe that there is a retracement phase upcoming. As the price went even below the golden trend line, we flipped that former support into a resistance and I had a short entry at 11,690. I was also expecting the price to jump above 12,000 area and also make a lower high from the previous high (12,340). I had 2 Fibonacci signals to believe in that. Also remember that I anchor my Fibonacci extremes mostly on big evens because as I also mentioned, this is mostly how algorithms work, on big evens. 1st reason: Price retraced down to 0.786 level of the Fibonacci retracement between 11,000-12,000. I took that as an exhaustion in the current run. 2nd reason: It had support from 0.382 of the Fibonacci level with the anchors at 10,000 and 12,000. Finding support from this level indicates a strong support for the last run and the possibility of price making new highs is still in play. So I closed my short position at 11,580 with 9% return. Sell@11,690 Buy@11,580 (10% return) Where to short? To reduce the risk of the trade, again, I applied Fibonacci retracement for the last drop and had my second attempt to short at 12,025, 0.786 level. Now, I just closed it at 11,710. Stop-loss was the previous high at 12,340. (Actually not exactly this point but within the retracement of the last movement.) Sell@12,025 Buy@11,710 (26% return) This Week: I think we are heading through below 14,000 . Even market turns bearish, price first has to test 14,000 before picking a direction. It is the Daily & Weekly & Monthly resistance. I don't believe there is stronger resistance than 14,000 resistance. It is THE resistance. The reason for making another top at 14,000 is that price has already broken above both ascending/colored trade channel and descending/blue trade channel. Next move possibly retest higher levels than previous high ,12,300. 13,000 also provides a strong resistance so if I go long, this will be the first level to watch out. 3 red circles on the top-left of the screen shows why on my previous post I told you not to trade. After breaking above a trade channel, price tends to generate false signals to liquidate traders before making new highs. I have 4 entry points first one is the grey range but I buy it for a short term trade. Entry range-1 is a key level, it is the cherry range. I consider having half of my long position at this point. I believe second and third entry ranges still provides profitable entry points but if the price drop extends to these levels, I will take that as a weakening of the bullish momentum. For the exact placement of the entry orders, you can check the Fibonacci levels on the image below. 0.5 level is in the similar levels with the cherry-range, 11,000. 0.786 level is around 10,400. I don't pick 0.618 as a support because I think if price drop extends to 0.618 with considerable bearish momentum, it is quite possible to broke below 0.618, to 0.786. This Fibonacci level corresponds to the blue range. Last point of support is the black range. This is the bottom of the ascending/colored channel, 10,300. If price goes below this point, it also indicates strong bearish pressure on the long term. So, last entry range is also the stop-loss point. I don't think having a short position until 14,000. Alt-Season Alt-season needs a confirmation. A confirmation that Bitcoin is going for a new ATH. If you check the chart on daily, weekly, and monthly there is one point distinguishes from all other points, 13,900. This is the point to be broken to announce an alt-season. On my wildest guess, I am expecting Bitcoin to retest this level and go for a retracement. If there is indeed an alt-season incoming and Bitcoin is actually going for ATH, alt-season may just start when Bitcoin is on the retracement phase. So watch out for how strong is the movement when it reaches 13,900 and how alts react to it. But as I said, these are all speculations.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by UnknownUnicorn4649511
Don't Do It! You Are Wrong - Key Levels to Watch Out For I guess you are about to witness many traders saying that the bull market is over or the bulls have just begun. I think it is too soon to say any of these and that's why whatever the direction is that you are positioning yourself, you are possibly wrong. I am not saying your trade will be a loser but what I am saying is that each direction seems improbable but not impossible. It's a bit messy. These are the times that hurt my equity the most. We are at the extreme of a trade-channel and price broke above the whole channel but went back in. Issue with being close to channel extremes is that these are the times when the market generates too many false signals. Check the image below. You can clearly see the false break-down of the black trend- line which also happens to be the bottom extreme of the same trade-channel, indicated with a black circle at the bottom. Since all the trend-lines within the ascending/colored trade channel have been broken, all these lines lost their legitimacy/credibility but not entirely. This is the main reason of the false signals. There are too many possibilities at this point and there are 3 major questions that we cannot entirely answer. 1) Is BTC going for new highs? (Maybe) It may/should make new highs since we broke above the current trade-channel by which breaking through 12,000. The reason that I don't believe it is a good idea to think that it is about to make new highs in near future is that it is hard to position a long trade at this point mostly because stop-loss placement would be too further away. Right now, it just dropped down below 11,400. In near future, this drop may extend further down to 11,050-11,150 range. I am considering to put on a long position from both these price levels. Target price is 11,500-11,600 range. Any long position should be kept in short-term because there is the possibility that the bull market might be over or this is the beginning of a retracement. 2) Is it over? (Maybe) Price is at the intersection point of 2 crucial trade-channels. Price level on its highest point is another crucial level that is the Daily & Weekly & Monthly resistance points. Price got rejected from both. If the last 12,300 top was indeed a false break-out, it might be just over. However, unless price goes below 10,000 again, bulls are in control. If price breaks below 11,000 and fails to shoot back above 11,000, that's alarming but a neutral bearish signal. 3) Is this a retracement? (Most probably) In a week of green candles it is hard to deny that the market is dominantly bullish. It doesn't matter that much if we couldn't remain above 12,000 or price just had a $1000 retracement. I am saying that again, unless price goes below 10,000 again, bulls are in control. So, it is too early to say that the bull market is over and this is probably a retracement before attempting to go above 12,000 again. In overal: Most possibly we are in a retracement phase and whatever the position you take (long/short), it is safer to keep the trade open not for too long and keep it as intraday trade. Any long term trade at this point may hurt too much if the bull market is over or if price shoots back up. I prefer to use RSI to seek for any exhaustion on retracement phases, 1h and 15m RSIs and 5m-RSI to pick the exact point to enter the trade. Possible trade opportunities: Short Idea: Golden line is now a resistance again. If the price attempts to go above this line again and fails, 11,700 levels provide a fine entry for a short position. I am also expecting the price to make a quick attempt to break above 12,000-12,050 range with low volume. Volume is the key indicator for this level. I'd like to see the volume bar to be lower than the 4H volume bars since 5th of August. If things reveal itself the way I think, around 12,000 will be my second entry for the short. Long Idea: As I mentioned, in retracement phases, RSI becomes extremely useful to pick entry points. Top grey line is above 11,150, mid-grey line is above 11,050 and bottom grey line is just above 10,900 and finally cherry trend-line indicates 10,750 range. I prefer to pick the latter 2 for long entries. Some from 10,900 and the remaining from 10,750 (with a 50-50% volume distribution on each order). Stop-loss is around 10,675. Target price may extend up to the golden line, 11,700 however this may change depending on the market's behavior by the time. If the RSI signals some exhaustion/bullish divergence around the other grey lines, I may enter a long position. If I do, I will keep the post updated. At the time being, it is hard to determine where the retracement ends but my most possible guess for now is the blue line that is the mid-level of the descending/blue trade channel, around 10,400. But before it does reach to this range, I think there is going to be a prior bounce ($500-600 bounce) from one of the price levels mentioned in the long idea. Good luck on your trades!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by UnknownUnicorn4649511