Day 60 — Trading Only S&P Futures | 10-for-10 Green TradesStick around — at the end, I’ll break down the key levels I’m watching for tomorrow. Let’s go.
Recap & Trades
Day 60 — another clean session.
We started the day with a bearish structure, so my plan was simple: wait for price to reach the 1-minute MOB and short it.
Every trade lined up with VX Algo confirmations — short, lock profit, repeat.
I was already up after the first few setups, and once I realized I was 10-for-10 on trades, I stopped.
Lesson & Mindset
This was a great reminder that it’s not about trading more — it’s about trading better.
Consistency doesn’t come from being in the market all day; it comes from having discipline to stop when the job’s done.
News & Levels
The quiet story today — liquidity is draining from the system.
US bank reserves just fell to $2.8 trillion, the lowest since 2020. That’s worth watching closely in the weeks ahead.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6915 bullish, below 6895 bearish.
Es1
S&P Nearing Major Resistance (Update)This updates my previous S&P chart back last year showing the S&P still had room to run until any major resistance. We're nearing that major resistance at 7577. Looks like it might hit around January 2026.
The trouble is this trend is heating up and we needed a pullback to 6295. With all the excitement from Nvidia and other major Hyperscalers I'm worried it's going to just go straight to Major resistance. *If it does* we could be looking at a decently large pullback next year (finishing around August) down to that 6295 area and back into the supporting trend line for the next big uptrend to start.
If however we slow down here and get a pullback back to 6295 then I think we're good to make it over the major resistance without that big pullback next year.
Either way once we hit the major resistance at 7577 we'll need to get close to that lower trend line at some point to begin a new bull run.
Good luck and take caution as we approach this resistance!
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Fri (Oct 31st)Kill-zones (ET): NY AM 09:30–11:00; manage 12:00–13:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00.
Event (Fri): 9:45 ET Chicago PMI (unaffected by shutdown).
Upside continuation (LONG):
6,910 flips to support with a 15m close above → 5m pullback holds → 1m HL entry.
SL: 15m trigger-wick ±0.25–0.50.
TP1 6,928; TP2 6,945–6,955; TP3 6,980–7,000.
Quick-reclaim bounce at 6,889–6,888: sweep and instant reclaim → ride to 6,898 → 6,904–6,910.
Pop-and-fail shorts (SHORT):
Reject 6,904–6,910 then 15m closes back under 6,904 → 5m LH entry.
SL: 15m wick.
TP1 6,898; TP2 6,889; TP3 6,879.
Clean breakdown of 6,889 with a 15m close ≤6,887 → 5m LH entry.
TP1 6,879; TP2 6,865; TP3 6,845.
Management & risk
Viability gate: only take a trade if TP1 ≥ 2.0R using the 15m-wick stop.
At TP1: close 70%, set the 30% runner to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3.
Max two attempts per level per session.
Day 59 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$142 & Netflix Split Recap & Trades
Day 59 — started off strong shorting 6930 resistance right out the gate.
Those early plays hit perfectly, and I built up about +$300 in profit.
Later, I got a little greedy — took a risky end-of-day setup, got stopped out right before a recovery, and ended up finishing at +$142.
Could’ve been a bigger day, but I’ll take a green close any time I stick to the plan.
Lesson & Mindset
Sometimes the best win is walking away with discipline intact.
Once you’re up early, your focus should shift from “how much can I make” to “how well can I protect it.”
That mindset compounds long-term consistency.
News & Levels
Big market story today — Netflix just announced a 10-for-1 stock split.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6920 bullish, below 6875 bearish.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Thur (Oct 30th)Bias: Neutral → mild-bullish while 6,922 holds; momentum unlocks only on acceptance above the 6,966–6,972 pocket.
Setups — Rejection Fade (short): Tag 6,966–6,972 and print a 15m rejection close back inside, then a 5m re-close lower with a lower high, then take the 1m first-pullback fail. Stop = 15m wick high +0.25–0.50. TP1 = 6,940. TP2 = 6,922. Runner aims 6,885.
Setups — Acceptance Continuation (long): 15m full-body close above 6,972, 5m pullback holds and re-closes, then 1m higher-low entry. Stop = 6,966 wick. TP1 = 7,000. TP2 = 7,017. Stretch into low 7,040s if momentum persists.
Setups— Quick-Reclaim Bounce (long): Flush into 6,922–6,926 that instantly reclaims on 15m, 5m re-close confirms, then 1m higher-low entry. Stop = 6,916. TP1 = 6,940. TP2 = 6,966–6,972.
Setups — Breakdown Continuation (short): 15m body through 6,922 that holds below on a 5m retest. Stop = 6,929–6,932. TP1 = 6,900. TP2 = 6,885. Stretch 6,858 if pressure accelerates.
Management: only take a setup if TP1 is at least 2.0R using the 15m-wick stop. At TP1, close 70% and set the 30% runner to break-even; runner targets the next opposing major level. No trailing before TP2. Maximum two attempts per level per session.
Invalidation: Bull idea is invalid below 6,916 (loss of the AS shelf). Bear idea is invalid once there is 15m acceptance and hold above 6,972 with 5m higher-low structure.
Notes: Expect headline sensitivity. If we rip into 6,966–6,972 without a 15m close above, favor the fade. If we grind above and hold, ride acceptance toward 7,000 then 7,017.
Day 58 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$304 & Easy FOMC GainsRecap & Trades
Day 58 — clean and easy.
We had some conflicting signals early, but once the structure aligned, it became a straightforward session.
The key takeaway today was how FOMC movement tends to cap between 30–60 points, which makes it easy to plan trades if you size stops properly.
Overall, simple setups, small size, steady gain — +$304 for the day.
Lesson & Mindset
You don’t have to trade aggressively to make progress.
Low-effort, high-consistency days are often where real edge compounds.
I’m learning that keeping your head calm on choppy news-driven days is what separates pros from gamblers.
News & Levels
Powell’s comments cooled expectations for further rate cuts, causing the Dow to fade late in the session.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6885 bullish, below 6840 bearish.
Day 57 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$27 & Staying DisciplinedRecap & Trades
Day 57 — a slower day, but still a win for discipline.
We had X7 sell signals flashing early, hinting at downside, but the market structure stayed bullish and DP buy signals kept showing up.
I went long near the MOB zone at 11:30, got shaken out on a quick drop at 11:35, and eventually decided to step aside. Closed for a small gain of +$27.50.
Lesson & Mindset
Sometimes the right play is to walk away.
When signals conflict, overtrading only leads to frustration.
Days like this are great reminders that trading small and reviewing later can be just as productive as hitting big wins.
News & Levels
Main headline — S&P 500 hit a new record high today ahead of major tech earnings.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6885 bullish, below 6840 bearish.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Wed (Oct 29)As we look at the current market conditions, the price is hovering just below the 6939-6946 resistance level. We should anticipate a test of this ceiling soon. A solid acceptance above 6946 on the 15-minute chart would likely trigger a movement towards the 6965-6975 range, which we can expect to see during the afternoon session in NY.
In terms of our range path, if we see rejection in the 6939-6946 zone, we will need to monitor for rotations between 6939, 6928, and 6916. A clean break beyond any of these levels will help establish our direction moving forward.
On the downside, a decisive 15-minute close below the 6916-6912 area could lead us back to the 6900-6896 levels. If that support fails, we could see a drop to 6892-6888, and then down to 6883-6880. Persistent acceptance below our S5 level would promote a further decline towards 6868-6864 and potentially trigger the gap references.
Lastly, I want to highlight that we should expect a compression-to-expansion behavior in the market. Thus, the first acceptance beyond R1 or below S0 will likely dictate the market's direction for the day.
Level-KZ Protocol (15/5/1). Execute inside London 02:00–05:00 (opt), NY AM 09:30–11:00, NY PM 13:30–16:00.
Working levels: R2 6965–6975; R1 6939–6946; MP 6928–6924; S0 6916–6912; S2 6900–6896; S3 6892–6888; S4 6883–6880; S5 6878–6874.
SETUP 1 — Acceptance-Continuation LONG (through R1)
Trigger: 15m close ≥ 6946, then 5m pullback holds above 6940 and re-closes; 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6942–6946 on the reclaim/HL.
SL: Hard SL below the 15m pullback wick (typically 6937–6939) ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6965–6975 (R2).
TP2: Leave runner only if momentum persists beyond R2 during NY PM.
Invalidation: 15m close back under 6939 with a 5m LH.
SETUP 2 — Rejection-Fade SHORT (at R1)
Trigger: Sweep into 6939–6946 that fails → 15m close back inside; 5m LH + 1m first pullback failure.
Entry: 6937–6943 on the fail.
SL: 6948–6950.
TP1: 6928–6924 (MP).
TP2: 6916–6912 (S0).
Stretch: 6900–6896 (S2) if acceptance forms below S0.
Invalidation: 15m acceptance ≥ 6946.
SETUP 3 — Quick-Reclaim Bounce LONG (MP)
Trigger: Fast flush into 6928–6924 that instantly reclaims on 1m and prints a 5m re-close.
Entry: 6926–6929 on the reclaim.
SL: 6923.25–6923.75.
TP1: 6939–6946 (R1).
TP2: 6965–6975 (R2) only after 15m acceptance through R1.
Invalidation: 15m close back below 6924.
SETUP 4 — Quick-Reclaim Bounce LONG (S0 flip)
Trigger: Sweep/flush into 6916–6912, immediate reclaim → 5m re-close.
Entry: 6917–6920 on strength back above 6916.
SL: 6911.50–6912.00.
TP1: 6928–6924 (MP).
TP2: 6939–6946 (R1).
Invalidation: 15m body-through below 6912.
SETUP 5 — Back-Inside Failure SHORT (under S2)
Trigger: 15m body close < 6896, then 5m retest of 6900–6896 holds from below.
Entry: 6898–6900 on the fail.
SL: 6903.00–6903.50.
TP1: 6892–6888 (S3).
TP2: 6883–6880 (S4).
Stretch: 6878–6874 (S5) — expect bounce attempts.
Invalidation: 15m reclaim ≥ 6900 with 5m re-close.
S&P500 Is it approaching the end of this Cycle?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone pattern since the October 2022 bottom of the Inflation Crisis. Since the July 2024 High, it also entered a shorter term Megaphone and those two patterns resemble the 2016 - 2019 Megaphones that emerged straight after the 2015 E.U. crisis and China's slowdown.
As you can see, the 1W RSI sequences among the two fractals are also very similar and the Cycles seem to be repeated with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) acting as the Support in times of aggressive uptrends, while the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) acting as the Support of the Bear Cycles/ correction phases.
The former Megaphone peaked in early 2020 on its 1.618 Fibonacci extension. On the current pattern that Fib is at 7100 and may very well get hit by the end of this year. If it does, the probabilities of a strong technical correction towards the 1W MA200 and the bottom of the long-term Bullish Megaphone, rise dramatically. Especially if at the same time, the 1W RSI turns overbought well above the 70.00 barrier.
It is also worth noting that 1W RSI levels below 35.00 are a strong technical Buy Signal. Long-term investors may seek to use this as a complimentary indicator in case this sharp correction materializes.
So do you think SPX will start correcting if it hits that level by early next year?
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ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Tue (Oct 28th)ES Context:
The trend is upward on the higher time frame, approaching a "weak-high" area just above the previous day's high (PDH). With FOMC Day-1 and consumer confidence news approaching, I expect the Asia and London sessions to trade within a range around or below the PDH, with a risk of a sweep and retest before any potential extension. The bias is slightly bullish as long as we remain above yesterday’s value area. The invalidation point is a 15-minute close below the previous day's low (PDL).
Setup 1 — Long above R1 (acceptance continuation)
Trigger: 15m full-body close ≥ 6912, then 5m pullback holds/re-closes above 6912.
Entry: 6913–6915
Stop: 6905
TP1: 6924–6930
TP2: 6965–6975
Cancel: if retest fails to hold above 6912.
Setup 2 — Short at R1 (rejection fade)
Trigger: Probe ≥ 6912 fails; 15m closes back below 6909; 5m LH re-close.
Entry: 6907–6910
Stop: 6917
TP1: 6900–6896
TP2: 6883–6880
Runner: 6878 → 6867.50 if momentum continues.
Setup 3 — Long from GMid (partial gap-fill reclaim )
Trigger: Wick into 6852–6855, then 5m reclaim ≥ 6856.
Entry: 6856–6858
Stop: 6848
TP1: 6867.50 (GTop)
TP2: 6900–6906
Setup 4 — Long from GBot (full gap-fill reversal)
Trigger: Fast tag of 6841–6842, then 5m reclaim ≥ 6846.
Entry: 6846–6848 on retest hold
Stop: 6836
TP1: 6854.25 (GMid)
TP2: 6867.50 (GTop)
Cancel: 15m body closes back below 6841.
Execution rules
Trade inside kill-zones only (London 02:00–05:00 ET; NY AM 09:30–11:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00).
Take a setup only if TP1 ≥ 2.0R versus the stated stop.
At TP1 close 70% and set 30% runner to BE; no trailing before TP2.
Catalysts for Tue, Oct 28 (all times ET; all listed items expected to proceed despite the shutdown)
09:00 — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (private release).
10:00 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (private release).
All day — FOMC Meeting (Day-1) begins; Day-2 statement/PC tomorrow.
13:00 — U.S. Treasury auctions (notes/bills as scheduled).
FYI tomorrow (Wed): 10:30 — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status (on schedule).
ES (SPX, SPY) - Week-Ahead Analysis, Levels Oct 27th - 31stBig picture (D/4H/1H )
Price is pressing a thin ceiling at 6,875–6,895. With ES at ATHs, the next upside extension targets sit at 6,968 → 7,044 → 7,128 on 4H. HTF trend is up, but intraday is stretched and vulnerable to a sweep-and-revert before any fresh leg.
Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
1) Rejection Fade at R1 (Tier-1 A++):
Look for a sweep above 6,888–6,895, then a 15m close back inside the band → 5m re-close under ~6,885 → take the first 1m pullback that stalls below.
Entry: 6,886–6,892 on the retest from beneath
SL: above the sweep wick (15m anchor)
TP1: 6,845–6,835 (S2); TP2: 6,823–6,812 (S3); TP3: 6,798–6,784 (S4)
Viability check: TP1 ≥ ~2R vs 15m-wick SL. At TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trailing before TP2.
2) Acceptance Continuation above R1 (Tier-1 A++):
If 15m full-body closes ≥6,895, treat that as acceptance. 5m pullback holds 6,892–6,895 → buy the 1m HL.
Entry: 6,893–6,898 hold
SL: below 6,885 (15m wick anchor)
TP1: 6,968–6,975 (R3); TP2: 7,040–7,052 (R4)
Invalidation: 15m body back below 6,885.
3) Quick-Reclaim Bounce at S2 (Tier-2 A+):
Fast flush into 6,845–6,835, tag/sweep, then immediate 1m reclaim with a 5m re-close back above ~6,840.
Entry: on the reclaim/pullback that holds 6,838–6,842
SL: under 6,832 (15m wick)
TP1: 6,888–6,895 (R1); TP2: 6,916–6,922 (R2)
4) Exhaustion Flush Bounce at S4 (Tier-3 A):
If selling extends to 6,798–6,784 with momentum divergence/absorption, buy the first 1m reclaim that converts 6,792–6,796 into a floor.
SL: under 6,780 (15m wick)
TP1: 6,823–6,812 (S3); TP2: 6,845–6,835 (S2); optional TP3 6,888–6,895 (R1)
Week-ahead catalysts to watch (plan risk around these)
• Tue: Conference Board Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET.
• Wed (AMC): MSFT earnings.
• Thu 08:30 ET: US Q3 GDP (Advance); Thu (AMC): AAPL and AMZN earnings.
• Fri 08:30 ET: Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE); Fri 09:45 ET: Chicago PMI.
Expect headline-driven jolts around 08:30 ET Thu/Fri and at the big tech calls after the bell.
S&P 500 (ES1!): Bullish! Wait For Valid Buy Setups!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Oct. 27 - 31st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P500 closed last week at ATHs. I expect more of the same next week.
Look for valid dip buying opportunities, my friends.
If the market disrespects the +OB, then buys become invalidated.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Is ES1! Setting Up for Another Leg Up? Layer Entry Plan💼 ES1! | E-Mini S&P 500 Futures | Thief Market Wealth Strategy Map (Swing/Day Trade) 🚀📈
📊 Plan: Bullish Bias
We are mapping the ES1! (E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) with a thief layering strategy for flexible swing/day trading.
Thief Entry Layers (Layering Strategy Method)
Instead of “one-shot” entries, we use multiple buy limit layers to scale into the move.
💰 Example entry levels:
🔹 6720
🔹 6740
🔹 6760
(👉 Add more layers if you wish, that’s the thief flexibility 🔑)
🛡 Stop-Loss (Thief SL)
📉 6680
⚠ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending to strictly follow my SL. Manage your own risk — protect your capital thief-style.
🎯 Target (Profit Escape Zone)
📈 6900 — key resistance area + potential overbought zone = possible bull trap!
💡 Escape with profits thief-style before the market traps late buyers.
⚠ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending to strictly follow my TP. Take your own exit when you steal your bag.
🔑 Key Points & Correlations
🟢 ES1! (S&P 500 futures) often correlates with:
CME_MINI:NQ1! (Nasdaq Futures) 📡 Tech-driven momentum
CBOT_MINI:YM1! (Dow Futures) 🏦 Old-school industrials
CME_MINI:RTY1! (Russell Futures) 📈 Small-cap sentiment gauge
TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) ⚡ Inverse relationship with risk-on moves
Watching these markets helps filter fake pumps and identify real liquidity grabs.
⚡ Thief Trading Philosophy
This is not about exact entries — it’s about layering, adapting, and escaping with profits before the crowd realizes.
Steal pips.
Escape traps.
Repeat.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
⚠ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-Style Trading Strategy Map, created just for fun and market observation. This is NOT financial advice. Trade at your own risk and always manage your capital wisely.
#ES1 #SP500 #SPX #Futures #DayTrading #SwingTrading #IndexTrading #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy #ThiefTrader #ScalpAndRun
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Fri (Oct 24)ES Two-Way Plan (A++) — Level-KZ 15/5/1
Calendar (ET) — Fri Oct 24:
08:30 CPI (Sept).
09:45 S&P Global flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs.
10:00 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final).
14:00 Federal Reserve Board open meeting.
Expect compression into 08:30 → expansion on release; execute inside NY AM 09:30–11:00 and PM 13:30–16:00 only.
Bias & overnight→NY forecast:
Into CPI, lean range-bound 6,770–6,787. A clean hold above the “weak-high” pocket should squeeze toward the 1.272–1.618 extension band; failure back inside favors a drift to the breakout shelves below. Treat the first post-CPI impulse as discovery; take the next confirmed 15m/5m/1m sequence only.
Setups - Level-KZ execution (15m→5m→1m)
1) Short Rejection Fade @ 6,785–6,787 (W3): 15m rejection closes back inside → 5m re-close below ~6,783.5 with LH → enter first 1m pullback that stalls beneath the shelf.
SL: above the 15m rejection wick ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,776–6,777. TP2: 6,759–6,762. TP3: 6,739–6,744.
2) Long Acceptance Continuation > 6,797 (W3): 15m full-body close above 6,797 → 5m pullback holds/re-closes → 1m HL entry.
SL: below the 15m trigger/pullback wick ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,818 (1.618). TP2: 6,830–6,835.
3) Long Quick-Reclaim Bounce @ 6,759–6,762 (W2): fast flush into the shelf → instant reclaim (15m wick, 5m re-close back above) → 1m HL entry.
SL: below the 15m flush wick ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,776–6,777. TP2: 6,785–6,787.
4) Short Acceptance Breakdown < 6,759 (W2): 15m body-through below 6,759 → 5m confirms → 1m LH entry.
SL: above 15m trigger wick ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,739–6,744. TP2: 6,720–6,725.
Day 55 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$452 | Rested and FocusRecap & Trades
Day 55 — I finally caught up on sleep last night and it made a huge difference.
Woke up focused, saw the bullish structure signal early, and just stayed on the long side all session.
Didn’t fight the trend, didn’t short — just stayed in BTD mode and let the system do the heavy lifting.
Ended the day +$452 and feeling great.
Lesson & Mindset
When you’re rested, you make better decisions.
Sleep sharpens reaction time, patience, and emotional control — all critical traits for traders.
Don’t underestimate rest as part of your trading system.
News & Levels
Today’s main headline: Bank reserves dropped below $3 trillion for the second week straight.
That’s a macro factor to watch — tighter liquidity can ripple into equities soon.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6760 bullish, below 6735 bearish.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Thur (Oct 23)Bias: The market shows a neutral to slightly bullish outlook as long as prices remain above the 6739–6751 control band. A decisive break and sustained trading above 6780 would indicate a shift in momentum to the upside, targeting the levels of 6804 to 6812. Conversely, if we lose support at 6739, we could see a decline toward 6712, with 6691 serving as a key level that may attract selling pressure.
Execution windows: London 02:00–05:00 optional small size. NY AM 09:30–11:00 primary. NY PM 13:30–16:00 primary. Midday is manage-only; avoid initiating.
Setups
Short pop-and-fail at 6773–6780
– Trigger: 15m rejection back inside the band → 5m re-close below ~6773 → first 1m pullback stalls beneath 6773
– Entry: sell the pullback beneath 6773
– Stop: hard SL above the 15m rejection wick by 0.25–0.50
– Targets: TP1 6751, TP2 6739, TP3 6712
– Invalidation: 6780 converts to support on a full-body 15m close
Long breakout continuation above 6780
– Trigger: 15m full-body close beyond 6780 → 5m pullback holds 6777–6780 and re-closes up → 1m higher-low entry
– Entry: buy the hold at 6777–6780
– Stop: hard SL below the 15m trigger wick by 0.25–0.50
– Targets: TP1 6804, TP2 6812, TP3 6835–6850
Long sweep-and-reclaim at 6712 → 6691
– Trigger: quick sweep of 6712 (or flush toward 6691) that immediately reclaims 6712 on 5m → 1m higher-low entry
– Entry: buy first pullback after the reclaim of 6712
– Stop: hard SL below the 15m sweep wick by 0.25–0.50
– Targets: TP1 6739, TP2 6751, TP3 6773–6780
Day 54 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$49 & Lessons on ExecutionRecap & Trades
Day 54 — the signals were spot-on today but my execution wasn’t.
I started with a bullish bias and kept trying to buy the dip when the structure was clearly bearish.
Got stopped out around 6714 for -$540, and the market bounced right after — classic.
Even so, the system nailed every call today — five for five accuracy.
Lesson & Mindset
The lesson is clear — you can have the perfect system, but if you don’t execute it perfectly, you can still lose.
Don’t let bias override data. Flexibility beats certainty every time.
News & Levels
Big headline today: Google announced a major quantum computing breakthrough with its new Willow chip — this could reshape the AI hardware landscape.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6760 bullish, below 6715 bearish.
Day 53 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$59 & Market Still WeirdRecap & Trades
Day 53 — started the day catching clean plays off the X7 and DPBuy signals. Made some solid early gains, but later got stopped out after unexpected news from Trump hit the market.
Overall, I finished +$59 — small day, but still green. I’ve noticed the market feels a lot more unpredictable since that big Friday crash — tons of chop and odd gamma behavior.
Lesson & Mindset
The takeaway: stay adaptive and don’t overtrade uncertainty. This isn’t the time to push size — it’s time to stay patient and observe until the structure normalizes.
News & Levels
Big story today — Gold saw its largest single-day drop in 12 years, down over 5%. That’s massive.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6760 bullish, below 6715 bearish.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Wed (Oct 22)Key catalysts and schedule (ET): The federal shutdown continues, pausing most government statistics. There is no 8:30am tier-1 macro release expected. The energy markets will receive the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30am. Of particular note, the Fed’s Michael Barr is scheduled to speak during the U.S. day, a potential market-moving event. Earnings reports from AT&T, Thermo Fisher, Boston Scientific, and Vertiv before the open, and IBM after the close, could also sway the index mood.
Key zones — resistance: The 6,765–6,795 zone, serving as the weekly/daily supply and prior high-high band, remains a crucial area of focus. It is the first ceiling to consider. The 6,820–6,830 zone becomes an intraday magnet if we manage to hold above 6,795. The 6,840 stretch target is a significant level that requires time above 6,795 first. The 6,852–6,855 zone is a potential squeeze extension, but only if momentum persists beyond 6,840.
Key zones — support: 6,725–6,735 is the prior NY session high / POH pocket and first decision area on any overnight strength that fades; 6,701–6,705 is the 1h equilibrium and flip line for intraday bias; 6,685–6,690 is the intraday pullback shelf and first buyable dip if 6,701 briefly slips and reclaims; 6,655–6,665 is the 1h demand pocket that keeps the rebound credible; 6,604 is the deeper extension stack that only comes into play on risk-off.
Overnight → NY forecast: baseline expectation is a range build under the 6,765–6,795 ceiling with stop-runs into the band and fades back toward 6,735 and 6,705; acceptance and sustained holding above 6,795 turns the tape constructive toward 6,820–6,830, with a paced push to 6,840 and only a momentum extension opening 6,852–6,855; loss of 6,701 during Asia/London that does not quickly reclaim tilts the path toward 6,690 and 6,665 before buyers try again; if 6,665 gives way decisively, risk opens to 6,604 where a larger bounce attempt is favored.
Setups (Level-KZ Protocol, 15m→5m→1m)
Short fade at the 6,765–6,795 band on the first clean test: enter on a 15m close back inside the band and a 5m re-close with a lower-high; place SL above 6,805–6,810; target 6,735 for TP1, 6,705 for TP2, 6,690 for TP3; if TP1 prints, close 70% and set the 30% runner to BE.
Long continuation only after real acceptance above 6,795: wait for a 15m full-body close above, then buy the 5m pullback that holds 6,795–6,800; SL 6,785; target 6,820–6,830 for TP1, 6,840 for TP2, 6,852–6,855 for TP3.
Quick-reclaim bounce at 6,701–6,705: if we sweep 6,701 and instantly reclaim on 1m/5m, buy the reclaim with SL 6,695; target 6,735 for TP1, 6,771–6,780 for TP2, 6,795 test for TP3.
Deeper flush-and-reverse at 6,655–6,665: buy only on confirmation (15m wick-rejection + 5m higher-low); SL 6,649; target 6,690 for TP1, 6,705 for TP2, 6,735 for TP3.
Bear continuation only if 6,701 is lost and holds below: sell the underside retest of 6,701–6,705; SL 6,712; target 6,690 for TP1, 6,665 for TP2, 6,604 extension for TP3 if momentum expands.
Bias and invalidation: The market currently exhibits a ' two-sided bias ', meaning it is neither bullish nor bearish, while we are trapped between 6,705 and 6,795. The tape turns constructive for extensions only after holding above 6,795 for multiple 15m closes. The intraday bias flips lower if we slip and cannot reclaim 6,701 on 15m closes. Invalidate any long if 6,665 breaks and holds; invalidate any short if we base above 6,830 and the first pullback defends 6,820.
Kill-zones and execution plan: Asia (20:00–00:00 ET) is optional and sized down; look for the 6,701 sweep/reclaim; London (02:00–05:00 ET) favors range probes into 6,735 or 6,705; NY AM (09:30–11:00 ET) is primary — fade the first touch of 6,795 if we gap under it, or buy the 6,795 pullback if we gap and hold above; manage lunch as maintenance only (12:00–13:00 ET); NY PM (13:30–16:00 ET) allows a final push toward 6,840 only if 6,820–6,830 converts to a floor.
Risk and management rules (applied to all plays): use a hard stop anchored to the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50; take no partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70% and move the runner to BE; allow no more than two attempts per level per session; time-stop any trade that hasn’t hit TP1 or SL within 45–60 minutes.
S&P 500 (ES1!): Wait For Valid Buy Setups!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Oct. 20-24th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P500 is ranging. More neutral than bullish. But Friday's bullish close indicates potential bullish order flow going into this week.
If price can manage to trade above the Monthly Open at 6,725, than buys become valid.
I'm not interested in selling this market, unless I see a sure enough bearish BOS.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis: Approaching the End of Wave 5I believe the S&P 500 is nearing the end of wave 5, possibly complete already or very soon, based on ES future and SPX charts. The wave 4 low from April 2025 (~5000) should be retested in a 3-wave ABC pullback, targeting late 2026 to early 2027, aligning with Fibonacci time frames. RSI divergence and ending patterns support this. Thoughts?
S&P500 Both short and long term bullish targets intact.The S&P500 index (SPX) continues to trade within its 5-month Channel Up and last Friday's pull-back to its 1D MA50 (red trend-line) again is another testament to it as it rebounded exactly on its bottom, making yet another Higher Low.
As we've shown on our previous analysis its short-term Target is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension at 6850. Ahead of a massive 1D MACD Bullish Cross however, we can see (after another short pull-back) the index extending much higher to its 2.5 Fibonacci extension (orange) at 7150 before a larger correction takes place.
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ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups Tue (Oct 21)Market Update for Traders:
Context:
Currently, the price is approaching a key supply zone between 6,765 and 6,795. While we have seen a series of higher highs on the 1-hour chart, the momentum appears to be flattening. Below this supply level, we have identified some significant areas to monitor. The first clean value area on the 1-hour chart is around 6,701 to 6,705, with a visible pullback shelf located between 6,685 and 6,690. There's also a stronger demand zone in the 6,655 to 6,665 range. If we manage to break above the supply cap at 6,795, the next measured extension target is around 6,840, but this should be treated as a stretch unless we see solid acceptance above 6,795.
Key Zones to Watch:
Resistance:
- 6,765–6,795 (this is the current cap)
- Extension potential at 6,840, provided we see firm acceptance above 6,795.
Support:
- Look for the first decision point around 6,725–6,735, which reflects overnight strength.
- 6,701–6,705 is a key equilibrium area.
- The shelf for the first buyable dip lies at 6,685–6,690.
- Further support is found in the demand pocket at 6,655–6,665.
- If we encounter a deeper risk-off scenario, watch for extensions down to 6,604, 6,564, and 6,520, but only if we see a decisive failure in the rebound.
Setups:
Setup 1 — Rejection Short at 6,765–6,795 (A++)
Entry: 6,788–6,793 after a 5m re-close back below 6,795 and a 1m lower-high
Stop (SL): 6,804.50 (above rejection wick/upper edge)
TP1: 6,729–6,733
TP2: 6,701–6,705
TP3: 6,686–6,690
Setup 2 — Acceptance Long above 6,795 (A++)
Entry: 6,796–6,799 on first pullback that holds after decisive 15m acceptance over 6,795
Stop (SL): 6,785.00 (back inside the band)
TP1: 6,822–6,828
TP2: 6,840 stretch
TP3: 6,852–6,855 if squeeze persists
Setup 3 — Quick-Reclaim Long at 6,701 (A+ Bounce)
Entry: 6,702–6,705 only if 6,701 briefly slips and then a 5m candle re-closes back above it
Stop (SL): 6,694.50
TP1: 6,729–6,733
TP2: 6,765–6,775
TP3: 6,788–6,793
Setup 4 — Shelf Long at 6,685–6,690 (A Bounce)
Entry: 6,686–6,689 with a 1m higher-low and 5m hold
Stop (SL): 6,678.00
TP1: 6,701–6,705
TP2: 6,729–6,733
TP3: 6,765–6,775
Setup 5 — Demand-Pocket Long at 6,655–6,665 (A Bounce)
Entry: 6,657–6,663 on stabilization and 1m higher-low
Stop (SL): 6,647.00
TP1: 6,686–6,690
TP2: 6,701–6,705
TP3: 6,729–6,733
Setup 6 — Breakdown Short if 6,701 Turns to Resistance (A+)
Entry: 6,698–6,701 after a 5m close below 6,701 and a retest that fails
Stop (SL): 6,707.50
TP1: 6,686–6,690
TP2: 6,665–6,660
TP3: 6,604–6,564 only if momentum stays risk-off
Management (apply to all)
take the setup only if TP1 ≥ 2.0R using the stated SL. At TP1 close 70% and set the 30% runner to break-even; runner attempts TP2→TP3 if structure supports it. Time-stop 45–60 minutes if neither TP1 nor SL is hit. Primary execution windows: NY AM 09:30–11:00 ET and NY PM 13:30–16:00 ET.






















