End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later.
On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period.
Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5).
Other observations supporting this wave count:
- Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3)
- Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4)
- Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1)
While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last.
Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well.
Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction:
1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual.
2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak.
The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24.
CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st.
So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday.
If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
Es1
Weekly Market Forecast Feb 17-21stThis is an outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
FOMC on Wednesday. The news could impact the direction of the USD Index, so be mindful of it. The markets had a relatively bullish week. Trumps reciprocal tariffs study announcement eased some of the tension in the markets also allowed equities to run higher.
The metals saw a bearish turn at the end of the week, but caution should be taken if considering shorting these markets. The overall bullish trend is still in tact.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/13/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/13/25
📈6100-6120
📉6060-6040
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 14thYesterday morning, a reclaim of 6066-70 zone in ES kicked off an easy long trigger, with 6125 set as the final target and 6139 as a bonus. We managed to tag 6139 overnight before the market pulled back to 6125.
As of now:
• Let the runners keep working, as thats all i do on Fridays mainly.
• 6120-23 is acting as support (it held, but it’s showing some weakness).
• Holding above this level keeps 6133, 6137, and 6154 in play.
• If 6120 fails, expect a dip to 6113, then 6098.
Inflation Fears Weigh More than China Tech GainsDeepSeek Is Not the Market’s Biggest Concern
Over the past few days following the emergence of DeepSeek, Nasdaq or technology stocks have experienced a notable 6% decline across all major U.S. indices. However, this recent pullback pales in comparison to the more substantial drop seen in December.
Small-Cap Stocks Take a Bigger Hit
The Russell 2000, which tracks small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., suffered an even sharper decline, falling by 12%. This suggests that broader economic concerns, beyond just the tech sector, are weighing on investor sentiment.
Then, What Is It?
On December 18, during the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a widely expected 0.25% rate cut, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.5%. However, it wasn’t the rate cut that rattled the market—it was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that followed.
“… the median participant projected that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be 3.9% at the end of 2025, indicating expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2025, down from the four projected in the previous summary.”
This statement signaled that the Fed remains hawkish on inflation, with expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025 instead of the previously projected four. As a result, borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated at around 3.9%, a scenario that investors had not fully priced in. The market reacted negatively, with indices falling sharply over the subsequent weeks.
Market Stabilization Amid China Tech Competition
Despite the recent downturn, there are signs of stabilization, with major indices still maintaining their position along an established uptrend line. As long as inflation continues to ease—hovering around 3% or, ideally, heading toward the Fed’s 2% target—the broader market outlook remains positive.
From a strategic standpoint, I will continue to focus on buying dips if the market respects the uptrend line. However, if hopes for rate cuts in 2025 fade and the trend begins to break below key support levels, my strategy will shift toward selling into strength when opportunities arise.
Short-Term Trading Outlook
To refine my trading decisions, I have also drawn trendlines on an hourly chart. Applying the same uptrend principles, these lines serve as a guideline for short-term trading in the Micro S&P 500 futures.
With the latest January Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading at 3%—higher than expected—I will be closely monitoring my daily chart's uptrend line.
While external economic conditions remain unpredictable, adapting trading strategies in response to market trends is key to staying ahead.
Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful:
E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: ES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $12.50
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: MES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $1.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Trading competition: www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ES Morning Update6020 has been the pivotal level in ES. It needed to hold after CPI yesterday to set up a rally toward 6070. It held perfectly, pushed through the 6066-70 zone, and later hit a bonus target at 6087 overnight. The range between 6020 and 6125 has become choppy, with 6070 acting as the key magnet.
As of now:
• Bulls want to hold 6058/recover 6070.
• Keeps 6087, 6104, 6125 live.
• 6020 fails, sell.
Prepere yourself for buying opportunities ... So there we are ... CPI little bit higher than exceptating , powel clearly talks about monetary policy and Trump goin wild with tarrifs ... what to except in this macro&political economic driven environment ? I don't think it will grow to extreme values now. Rather, there will be some more carving and from a short-term perspective an opportunity to buy at a good price ... Well, it is very important, at least for me in this environment of a trade war combined with a period when historically the Fed has raised rates and not lowered them as many expect. It is important to take profits and hold losses short and uncompromisingly exit losing positions. The year 2025 will be full of opportunities, which goes hand in hand with pain. What is heaven for one guy is hell for another guy. I am a fan of everyone who tries to make money in this environment and I hope to rob you of your money. Because that is what the market is about. Good luck and enjoy your game
ES Morning Update CPI DayYesterday’s setup came from a failed breakdown of the 6066-70 zone at 9:30 AM in ES. The daily target of 6093 was reached at 11 AM, and sellers have held below that level since. With CPI scheduled at 8:30 AM today, it’s time to let the runners work if you have them. Or sit on hands til after
As of now:
• 6078 and 6066-70 must hold through any CPI traps to keep 6109, 6115, and 6126+ in play
• If the price dips below 6066, expect a move down to 6020
Check my CPI Trading Guide I sent out yesterday evening on how to trade days like today.
Important Support and Resistance Points: 6066.50
Hello, traders.
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-------------------------------------
(ES1! 12M chart)
When looking at the Fibonacci ratio, the area marked with a circle is an important support and resistance area.
If there is an additional rise in the area where the current price is located, it is expected to determine the trend again around the left Fibonacci ratio point of 3.618 (6579.25).
If it fails to rise, it is expected to fall to the Fibonacci ratio range of 0.618 (5273.25) ~ 2.618 (5434.75).
-
(1D chart)
The point to watch is which direction it deviates from the box range of the HA-High indicator.
The HA-High indicator is formed at the 6066.50 point.
-
Since the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator is passing around 6066.50, the 6066.50 point is expected to play an important role as support and resistance.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can be supported in the 6066.50-6106 range and rise to around the Fibonacci ratio 1 (6178.50).
If it falls below 6066.50, it is expected to fall to around 5935.75-5972.75.
-
Ultimately, if it cannot get out of the box range of the HA-High indicator, you should trade within the box range.
The box range of the HA-High indicator is 5906.50-6148.0.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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ES Morning Update Feb 11thThe past week in ES has centered around 6066-70, which served as a solid support last Thursday and again yesterday, keeping targets 6086, 6093+ in play for now. Now, we’re back at this level—it’s become a messy, choppy magnet.
As of now:
• The 6066-70 zone needs to push quickly to reclaim 6086 and 6093+
• If that zone fails, expect a dip to 6052, then 6037
S&P500 consolidation is over. Massive rally starting.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 27 2023 Low. For almost the past 30 days it has been ranging sideways on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The index is no stranger to this at all.
On the contrary, this is a common Consolidation Phase that SPX has been through another 3 times within the Channel Up. As you can see, every time the index recovered from a Bearish Leg below the 1D MA50, it consolidated for around 1 month above the 1D MA50 and then resumed the Bullish Leg to complete at least a +15% rise from the bottom.
The 1D RSI sequences among all those fractals (including today's) are identical. As a result, we are preparing for a massive rally any day now, expecting a new +15% Bullish Leg to reach at least 6600.
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S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.2-7.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 4th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). The pivot forecast on February 3 pushed the market upward after the overnight tariff gap. If you remember, I was in a short position at Friday’s close on January 31. I got tempted by the overnight tariff hysteria and closed my position in the morning. The European morning provided a great intraday opportunity to buy back the market with a good profit and open a long position on the pivot forecast.
⚠️ The cycle’s beginning looks very bearish, with a short rise followed by a steep drop below the opening level. I anticipated this in early January. By Friday’s close, signs of a double top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels appeared. Strong hands with stops above the double top level should have held their short positions from January 24. The impulse from the January 29 extreme forecast is still active. Two long cycles remain open, as noted in the early January post.
DeepSeek Is Not What the Market FearsWith the emergence of DeepSeek, tech stocks have generally dropped by 6% over these few short days across all US indices, but from the peak in late November to December, we saw a much more massive drop among all of them.
The Russell 2000, representing small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., declined by 12%,
What triggered this sell-off in the tech giants (Nasdaq), the old guards (Dow Jones), the suite of blue-chip stocks (S&P 500), and the medium-sized firms (Russell 2000)?
Markets are inter-connected. What should we be looking out for, and how should we navigate if the market break below this recent all-time low?
E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: ES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $12.50
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: MES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $1.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Trading competition: www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Market Forecast UPDATES! Tuesday, Feb 11In this video, we will update the forecasts for the following markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P500: Breaking out towards 6,210.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.592, MACD = 11.130, ADX = 24.014) as it is ranging between the 1H MA50 and 1H MA200. This consolidation is taking place near the top of the Channel Down, a pattern almost identical with January's. When that pattern broke to the upside, it almost hit the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Our short term target is just under this level (TP = 6,210).
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ES/SPX Morning Update Feb10thThe past 3 Sundays have been similar: a gap down set up a Failed Breakdown long where we planned. As mentioned in the plan Sunday, the Failed Breakdown of Wednesday’s 6020 low was triggered at 6 PM yesterday giving buyers a nice long, especially after reclaiming 42-43, with targets of 6056 and 6070—and both were reached.
• Next targets are 6086, 6093, and 6109+
• If the 6066-70 zone fails, expect a dip toward 56, then 42
Weekly Market Forecast: S&P, NAS & DOW Are Still Bullish!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
The S&P500, the NASDAQ, and the DOW JONES are still bullish overall, despite last weeks NFP news that saw the markets move lower. Until there is a bearish break in market structure, it is buys all the way. Let the markets reach the buy zones and wait for the bullish market structure shift. That is the time to take valid buy setups.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/07/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/07/25
📈6148-6154
📉6075-6068
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/06/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/06/25
📈6132-6140
📉6060-6050
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning update NFP at 8:30Yesterday was choppy in ES, yet key levels held with precision. Both 6087 and 6070 provided solid support—with 6070 holding exactly—which kept the market on track to reach 6105.
As of now:
• NFP at 8:30; hold the runner
• No change: 6087 and the weaker 6066-70 zone must hold to keep 6109, 6116, and 6130 in play
• If support falls below 6066, sell down to 6043