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Day 45 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$4,921 | Best Day YetDay 45 — one of my best days yet. After a big workout weekend, I came in with strong mental clarity. Right at 8:30, VX Algo flipped bullish, and I went long off the 9am MOB zone premarket. Got stop hunted right after the open, but risk was small, so I reloaded on the next setup — a 5-min MOB long with confirming buy signals — and that’s where the day took off. Lesson & Mindset The lesson today: preparation and mindset matter more than anything. When your body and mind are in sync, execution becomes automatic. News & Levels Headline: AMD and OpenAI spark a wild tech rally as S&P 500 hits another record. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6765 stay bullish, below 6740 flip bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES (SPX, SPY) Weekly Game Plan (Oct 6–10)Big Picture Price is leaning into the 6,788–6,800 ceiling after a steady grind higher. Underneath, you’ve got stacked shelves: 6,778, 6,771/6,760, and 6,754. Lose that 6,754 floor and there’s an air pocket toward the 6,720s → 6,680s demand band. Expect rotations until the market either gets above 6,800 and sticks (trend-up week) or gets swatted back (rotate lower into value). Weekly Bias & Likely Paths Base case: Rotational around 6,788–6,800 until proven otherwise. Bull path: Get above 6,800 and stick → pit stops 6,818–6,825 (TP1) → 6,856–6,862 (TP2) → stretch 6,895–6,905. Bear path: Pop-and-fail at 6,800 → drift to 6,778 → 6,771/6,760 → 6,754. Trend-down only if we close below 6,754 and fail the check-back, opening the 6,720s → 6,680s window. Tomorrow’s Playbook — Level-KZ Protocol (15/5/1) (NY AM window 09:30–11:00 ET; PM window 13:30–16:00 ET. Two tries per level max.) Pop-and-Go LONG over 6,800 (Tier-1, full size) Trigger: 15m close above 6,800 → 5m holds 6,788–6,792 and re-closes up → 1m higher high to enter. Entry: 6,799–6,804 on the re-break. Stop: Below the 15m trigger wick −0.5. • Targets: TP1 6,818–6,825, TP2 6,856–6,862, TP3 6,895–6,905. Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 take ~70%, set runner to BE, no trail until TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if flat. Pop-and-Fail SHORT at 6,788–6,800 (Tier-1, full size) Trigger: Wick above 6,800 that can’t stick → 15m close back under 6,788, 5m confirms down → 1m lower high to enter. Entry: 6,786–6,792. Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.5. • Targets: TP1 6,778, TP2 6,771.5–6,760.5, TP3 6,754 → 6,742. Note: If TP1 prints in <10m, take ~50%, consider re-adding on a 5m LH. Quick-Reclaim Bounce LONG at 6,758–6,754 (Tier-2, ¾ size) Trigger: Flush into 6,758–6,754 that snaps back → 15m close back over 6,760, 5m holds → 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,758–6,762. Stop: 6,749–6,752 (below the sweep low −0.5). • Targets: TP1 6,778, TP2 6,788, TP3 6,800. Continuation SHORT under 6,754 (Tier-1, full size) Trigger: 15m body under 6,754 plus a failed check-back into 6,754 on 5m. Entry: 6,751–6,754 on the failed retest. Stop: 6,762. • Targets: TP1 6,736–6,728, TP2 6,720–6,700, TP3 6,685–6,680. Price Action Road Map for NY Trading Session Opening Analysis: - We'll begin by monitoring if the price can hold above the 6,788 level. If it does, look for a push toward 6,800. If the price gets rejected at this level, we will shift our strategy to Scenario B. Bearish Scenario: - If the price slips below 6,760, anticipate a potential stop run targeting the 6,758 to 6,754 range. Response Strategies - If we observe a quick snap back from this region, be prepared to target the VWAP area, along with revisiting the 6,788 and 6,800 levels. - Should we fail to reclaim these higher levels, prepare for a move down towards the 6,720s and potentially the 6,680s. Afternoon Strategy: - In the afternoon session, if we establish a clear comfort zone during the morning, consider fading the extremes until we see a definitive 15-minute body break from this zone. Stay focused on these levels and remain adaptable to the market's behavior throughout the session. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Day 44 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$2,542 Quick WinsI followed the bullish flips and buy signals right after the open, took longs, and hit profit targets quickly. There was also a clean backtest bounce at the MOB around 9:42. After those trades, I locked in +$2,542 across all accounts and stepped away for meetings — avoiding the noise and chop that came later. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6755 = Stay Bullish Below 6740 = Flip Bearish 📰 News Highlights UBS RAISES GOLD, SILVER PRICE FORECASTS AGAIN
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Fri, (Oct 3)08:30 Employment Situation (NFP, unemployment rate, wages) is scheduled, per BLS release calendar. Note: multiple outlets report the federal shutdown may delay key reports, including payrolls—treat 08:30 as tentative. 10:00 ISM Services PMI (third business day @ 10:00). Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) Kill-zones (ET): London 02:00–05:00 (optional), NY AM 09:30–11:00 (primary), NY PM 13:30–16:00 (primary). Stops: Hard SL anchored to the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts. Targets: TP1 = major opposing level. At TP1: close 70%, set runner 30% to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. No trail before TP2. Time-stop: 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts per level per session. Acceptance Continuation — LONG (Tier-1 A++) Trigger: 15m body-through acceptance above 6,788 → 5m pullback holds ≥6,782 and re-closes up → 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,784–6,788 reclaim. SL: ~6,778 (below trigger wick). TPs: 6,800 → 6,810 → 6,822–6,830. Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≤6,782. 3) Quick-Reclaim Bounce at PDL — LONG (Tier-2 A+) Trigger: Sweep 6,742–6,746, instant reclaim with 5m close back above 6,746 → 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,744–6,746 after reclaim. SL: 6,737–6,739 (below sweep low). TPs: 6,762 → 6,774 → 6,786. Sizing: Tier-2 (¾ size). 4) Breakdown & Hold — SHORT (Trend/Acceptance) Trigger: 15m acceptance below 6,742, 5m pullback fails ≤6,742 and re-closes down. Entry: 6,740–6,742. SL: 6,748–6,750. TPs: 6,725 → 6,710 → 6,695. Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≥6,748. === Rejection Fade at PDH — SHORT (Tier-1 A++) Trigger: First touch 6,786–6,788 fails; 15m rejection close back inside ≤6,782, 5m lower-high + re-close down → 1m LH entry. Entry: 6,782–6,786. SL: 6,791–6,794 (above rejection wick). TPs: 6,762 → 6,746 → 6,725. Invalidation: 15m body > 6,788. PA Thoughts: Overnight (Asia/London): Looking at the base case rotation between 6,758 and 6,786. I’ll be fading the edges on the first touch of this range (Setups 2/3). A break and acceptance beyond these edges would open up potential targets—6,800 to the upside and 6,725 to the downside. If the Asia session pushes into the R2 and faces rejection, I’ll look for a lower high back toward S1. However, if we see acceptance above, expect a grind toward 6,800–6,810. NY AM (09:30–11:00): Depending on the 08:30 data release, be prepared for potential fast, one-sided movement. I plan to stay on the sidelines until we see a 15-minute acceptance at R2/S2, then I’ll execute Setup 1 for an upward move or Setup 4 for a downward trend. If the data comes in delayed or shows benign results, anticipate the first impulse to shift to 10:00, and I’ll apply the same acceptance strategy at the nearest edge. NY PM (13:30–16:00): If we hold above 6,788 from the AM session, I’ll target the 6,800–6,810 range and manage runners toward 6,822–6,830 as we approach the close. Conversely, if the AM session fails between 6,786 and 6,788, I expect to see lower highs towards 6,758 and possibly down to 6,746. A clean break below 6,742 would open the door for a slide to 6,725.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
Day 43 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Fresh RecordsDay 43 of Trading Only S&P Futures is done — and despite fighting through the flu, I finished +$1,069 across all accounts. The morning was tough with negative gamma and a few bad trades, but patience was the difference-maker. Once bullish structure aligned with positive gamma, I trusted my levels, bought the dip at MOB, and it worked out beautifully. 📰 News Highlights DOW, S&P 500 AND NASDAQ CLINCH FRESH RECORDS 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6745 = Stay Bullish Below 6730 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
Is ES1! Setting Up for Another Leg Up? Layer Entry Plan💼 ES1! | E-Mini S&P 500 Futures | Thief Market Wealth Strategy Map (Swing/Day Trade) 🚀📈 📊 Plan: Bullish Bias We are mapping the ES1! (E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) with a thief layering strategy for flexible swing/day trading. Thief Entry Layers (Layering Strategy Method) Instead of “one-shot” entries, we use multiple buy limit layers to scale into the move. 💰 Example entry levels: 🔹 6720 🔹 6740 🔹 6760 (👉 Add more layers if you wish, that’s the thief flexibility 🔑) 🛡 Stop-Loss (Thief SL) 📉 6680 ⚠ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending to strictly follow my SL. Manage your own risk — protect your capital thief-style. 🎯 Target (Profit Escape Zone) 📈 6900 — key resistance area + potential overbought zone = possible bull trap! 💡 Escape with profits thief-style before the market traps late buyers. ⚠ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending to strictly follow my TP. Take your own exit when you steal your bag. 🔑 Key Points & Correlations 🟢 ES1! (S&P 500 futures) often correlates with: CME_MINI:NQ1! (Nasdaq Futures) 📡 Tech-driven momentum CBOT_MINI:YM1! (Dow Futures) 🏦 Old-school industrials CME_MINI:RTY1! (Russell Futures) 📈 Small-cap sentiment gauge TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) ⚡ Inverse relationship with risk-on moves Watching these markets helps filter fake pumps and identify real liquidity grabs. ⚡ Thief Trading Philosophy This is not about exact entries — it’s about layering, adapting, and escaping with profits before the crowd realizes. Steal pips. Escape traps. Repeat. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” ⚠ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-Style Trading Strategy Map, created just for fun and market observation. This is NOT financial advice. Trade at your own risk and always manage your capital wisely. #ES1 #SP500 #SPX #Futures #DayTrading #SwingTrading #IndexTrading #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy #ThiefTrader #ScalpAndRun
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by The-Thief
Microstategy Vs Bitcoin Vs SP500Can you see the correlation? SP500 controls BTC for the most part and therefore microstrategy. MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has become a key proxy for Bitcoin exposure in traditional markets. With nearly 600,000 BTC on its balance sheet, its stock’s performance strongly correlates with Bitcoin’s price action. In 2025, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has climbed to 0.90, reflecting Bitcoin's growing role as a macroeconomic risk asset. MicroStrategy’s pending inclusion in the S&P 500 would force index funds to buy NASDAQ:MSTR shares, indirectly increasing institutional Bitcoin exposure through traditional equity portfolios. This convergence shows how digital assets and major equity indices are increasingly intertwined, creating new pathways for Bitcoin adoption by institutional investors while tethering crypto markets closer to broader market dynamics. #bitcoin #MSTR #SP500 #crypto #investing CBOE:MSTU AMEX:SPY
CBOE:MSTULong
by ChartProphet
Day 42 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$821 While SickDay 42 of Trading Only S&P Futures is wrapped up with +$821 across all accounts. Even while battling the flu, I stuck to the process: waited for price to hit MOB, took the clean play, and locked in early. The rest of the day was more about protecting focus than chasing trades. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6745 = Stay Bullish Below 6715 = Flip Bearish 📰 News Highlights S&P 500 closes above 6,700 on bets of limited shutdown impact
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups For Wed, (Oct 1)News & event map (for tomorrow, Wed Oct 1) • ADP National Employment Report – 8:15 ET. Official release time. • S&P Global PMI (final) – 9:45 ET. Scheduled on the first working day; tomorrow’s calendar lists 09:45. • ISM Manufacturing & Prices Paid – 10:00 ET. ISM releases on the first business day at 10:00. • JOLTS: already published Tuesday; none expected Wednesday. • Shutdown watch: if funding lapses at midnight, the Labor Dept./BLS suspends operations and economic data are delayed (e.g., Friday jobs report). Expect the market to lean more on private data (ADP/ISM). Shutdown Overview – Trading Insights Historically, equity markets have exhibited mixed to mildly positive performance during government shutdowns, with the S&P 500 averaging gains between 0% and +0.3% in prior instances. The primary concern during these periods tends to be short-term volatility and potential delays in economic data, rather than sustained market downturns. Notably, the long-term trend suggests that markets typically recover and trend higher in the months following the resolution of a shutdown. Overnight projection (Asia→EU) The baseline expectation is for range-building between 6693 and 6725, with potential liquidity runs at the confluence edges. We often see price dips below the 6693–6695 zone rebound towards 6703 or 6713. Conversely, a strong acceptance above 6720–6725 can lead to a probe into the 6740–6750 range before the New York session. If we see a clean 30-minute close below 6693, that could open up the move to 6676 and potentially 6653. NY session game plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) Trade around the 8:15 and 10:00 windows; let the first impulse settle, then execute inside NY AM 09:30–11:00 and PM 13:30–16:00 kill-zones. ES LONG Acceptance (A++) — Entries, SL, TPs Bias: Only if 15m accepts above 6720–6725 (re-close & hold). Entry: 5m pullback hold → 1m HL trigger 6721–6726. SL: ≤6712.75 (beyond VWAP/IB-H) hard stop (±0.25–0.50). TP1: 6743.5 (PDH) — take 70%, set runner BE. TP2: 6750–6755 supply. TP3: 6763–6768 stretch if ISM beats and breadth expands. Invalidation: A 15m body back inside ≤6719 after entry. ES SHORT Rejection (A++) — Entries, SL, TPs Bias: Fade first test of 6740–6750 if 15m shows rejection (wick + close back inside). Entry: 5m LH re-close below 6735–6738; 1m trigger. SL: ≥6756. TP1: 6720–6722. TP2: 6703–6705 (Y-POC). TP3: 6693–6695 (Y-VAL/ONL). Invalidation: 15m acceptance above 6750.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Day 41 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Beating the WhipsawDay 41 of Trading Only S&P Futures closes green across the board: +$1,866 across all accounts, with +$409 booked on my main account. The market felt wild today with whipsaw moves all over. Instead of forcing trades, I waited it out and stayed patient near breakeven. Toward the end of the session, I finally got high-probability setups — and that made the day. My trade copier app glitched out, so execution wasn’t perfect across accounts, but the main lesson here is clear: patience beats trying to fight the chop. 📰 News Highlights DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ end higher as government shutdown looms 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6720 = Flip Bullish Below 6695 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
S&P500 Short-term Bull Flag formed.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 31 High. The price is currently on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), forming a Bull Flag after a 4H MA100 (green trend-line) rebound last Thursday. This is similar to the Bull Flags of August 25 and 05, which both ended with a rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. Even the 4H RSI sequences among the 3 fractals are similar with their Lower Highs structures. The only difference is that the price bottomed this time on the 4H MA100 (as mentioned), instead of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) of the previous 3 times. As a result, if this Bull Flag holds, we expect a quick rally to 6720 (just under Fib 1.236). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups Thus (Sep 30)SESSION DRIVERS • Europe: Germany CPI/HICP prelim came in hotter (2.4% y/y). • Energy: OPEC+ chatter about a possible +500k b/d hike hit crude; watch cross-asset spillover. • U.S. tape: Headlines around government-funding risk; yields eased into week-start. → Net: headline sensitivity + range tendencies early; let NY cash open set the tone. INTRADAY BIAS & SCENARIOS Base case: Range-to-down if 6714–6724 caps on first tests → rotate toward 6696 then 6669. Alternative: Acceptance above 6724 flips momentum up → test 6731–6736 stops; extension possible toward 6750/6763 if buyers hold retests. Threshold: 6696/6694 pivot (ONL/London Low). Below = opens magnets 6686 → 6669. Above and accepted = re-target 6714/6724. LEVEL-KZ PROTOCOL (15/5/1) — SETUPS: Tier-1 (A++) Acceptance Continuation — LONG above 6724 Trigger: 15m full-body close >6724. 5m: Pullback holds 6720–6724 and re-closes up. 1m Entry: HL reclaim. SL: Below 15m trigger wick or 6716 (whichever is lower). • TP1: 6731–6736, TP2: 6750, TP3: 6763. Management: At TP1 close 70%, runner 30% to BE; no trail before TP2. Tier-1 (A++) Rejection Fade — SHORT at 6714–6724 Trigger: 15m rejection that closes back below 6714. 5m: Re-close down with LH. 1m Entry: First pullback lower-high. SL: Above 6728 (or 15m wick high). TP1: 6696–6694, TP2: 6689–6685, TP3: 6672–6666. Notes: Best on first touch during NY AM. Tier-2 (A+) Quick-Reclaim Bounce — LONG at 6672–6666 Trigger: Sweep 6666 → instant reclaim; 15m closes back above 6672. 5m: Re-close up holding the band. 1m Entry: HL. SL: Below 6658. • TP1: 6696, TP2: 6714–6724, TP3: 6731–6736. Size: ¾ normal. Tier-3 (A) Exhaustion Flush — LONG at 6654–6650 or 6639–6636 Trigger: Exhaustion wick + 15m close back inside; 5m re-close up. SL: 6–8 pts below the wick (respect the 15m anchor). • TP1: 6666–6672, TP2: 6696, TP3: 6714. Size: ½ normal. Use only if velocity spike + capitulation tells. RISK & EXECUTION GUARDRAILS • Hard SL on the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts. • Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R. • Max 2 attempts per level per session; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. • Daily guardrails: stop trading at −2R net or lock gains at +3R net. • Lunch 12:00–13:00 manage only; PM window 13:30–16:00 for second pass.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
Day 40 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$2,515 LossDay 40 of Trading Only S&P Futures closes with another red day, down -$2,515. I started the day with losses from an overnight trade but worked back to breakeven after a few solid setups. Then came the turning point — I bet on structure flipping bullish, set multiple buy-the-dip orders with stops just under 6701, and got wicked out two points before the bounce. That single trade set the tone for the rest of the session. On top of that, I was fighting a headache all morning, so instead of tilting, I stepped away, left orders at key levels, and let the market do its thing. This challenge isn’t about perfection — it’s about consistency and learning, even on tough days. 📰 News Highlights US economic data releases to pause in government shutdown, Bureau of Labor Statistics says.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
ES Futures (SPX, SPY) Weekly Analyses, Levels: Sep 29 - Oct 3 Weekly Outlook The trend remains bullish on both the weekly and daily charts, with price action re-accumulating beneath a well-defined supply zone around 6750–6760. Friday’s rebound from the low 6600s has established a higher-low structure on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, closing above the mid-range of 6612–6630, which shifts near-term momentum back in favor of the buyers. As we enter a catalyst-heavy week, the path of least resistance suggests a measured push through last week’s “weak high” zone (6750–6760). A decisive move above this supply shelf could target the psychological 6800 mark first, with potential for further upside towards 6865–6885, assuming momentum and market breadth are supportive. Conversely, if we fail to establish acceptance above 6755, the market could revert to a 6700–6760 range, with downside risks extending to 6620 in response to any hot economic data or risk-off sentiment in the headlines. Key catalysts this week (ET) Mon–Thu: Fed speakers scattered; watch for rate-path color and balance-sheet remarks. Tue 10:00: JOLTS (Aug). Wed 8:15: ADP employment (Sep). Wed 10:00: ISM Manufacturing (Sep). Fri 8:30: Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment (Sep). Fri 10:00: ISM Services (Sep). Note: Any fiscal headlines or shutdown noise can skew liquidity and tape reactions around these prints. Tomorrow — NY AM plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) ES Long (A++) — 6750–6760 Acceptance Continuation Bias: Bullish if we get acceptance above the 6750–6760 shelf. Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6755. Then 5m pullback holds ≥6750 and re-closes up; enter on the first 1m HL. Entry: 6752–6756 pullback fill (avoid chasing a wick). Stop: Hard SL below the 15m break-candle low −0.50. Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R. Targets: TP1 6798–6805; TP2 6865–6885; TP3 6900–6915. Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE. Trail only after TP2 or if a 5m lower-high forms against you. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level for the session. Invalidation: 15m body back inside ≤6748 or a failed 5m re-close (acceptance lost). ES Short (A+) — 6750–6760 Rejection Fade Bias: Mean-revert to base if the shelf is swept and rejected. Trigger: Sweep 6750–6760 and 15m closes back below 6748. Then 5m re-close down with a LH; enter on the first 1m LH. Entry: 6744–6748. Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.50 or ≥6762, whichever is tighter. Targets: TP1 6705; TP2 6680; TP3 6620. Management: Take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; consider covering more ahead of 6680 into data windows. Time-stop 45–60m. Max 2 attempts. Invalidation: 15m acceptance back above 6755 or a 5m close making new session highs. Price Projection for the Week Base Scenario: If we see early-week acceptance above 6755, look for targets at 6800, paving the way for a gradual move towards 6865–6885 by Friday. A soft-landing scenario, characterized by cooler labor growth and steady ISM data, could push prices even to the 6900–6915 range. Alternative Scenario: Should we experience a rejection in the 6750–6760 range, expect the ES to remain range-bound between 6700–6760. Hot labor market data or strong ISM figures could drive the price back to 6620, where it’s crucial for buyers to defend this level to maintain the uptrend. Execution Notes: - Focus on trade opportunities only within key kill-zones: primary session is NY AM from 09:30–11:00; optional trading during Asia/London sessions should be done at reduced sizes. - Adhere to daily barriers: halt trading at -2R or after achieving +3R net. - On first touch, prioritize R0/S1 as significant; consider de-risking during second or third interactions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Day 39 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$2,465 DrawdownDay 39 of Trading Only S&P Futures ends with a tough -$2,465 loss. The morning started strong — I was green on my first three trades with bullish signals at the open. But by 10am, unexpected news about a government shutdown and rate cut doubts shook the market. I got shaken out, lost my morning gains, and ended the day deep in the red. In hindsight, if I had trusted my analysis, kept my MOB buy-the-dip orders, and stayed patient, I would’ve finished green. Instead, I let the news trigger me and broke discipline. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6705 = Flip Bullish Below 6675 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
ES Futures (SPX) - Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups - Thu, Sep 26News & catalysts (ET) 8:30 — PCE & Core PCE (Aug) , the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Market focus is on Core PCE ~2.9% YoY and ~0.2% MoM consensus. 10:00 — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final Sep) . Scheduled time confirmed by Fed speakers: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman in a 10:00 discussion; Fed Board’s Beth Anne Wilson remarks at 8:45 at a New York Fed conference. Earnings/overnight tone: Costco (COST) reported FY Q4 results Thu after close; headlines can sway retail/consumer sentiment pre-open. Nike (NKE) is due Tue 9/30 after close (next week). Bias: Base case: Two-way trade into 8:30, directional break afterward. If Core PCE ≤ 0.2% MoM or ≤ 2.8% YoY: risk-on; favor upside continuation through near-term supply toward 6700+. If Core PCE ≥ 0.3% MoM or ≥ 3.0% YoY: risk-off; favor sell-the-rips into 6630 → 6605 ladder. Secondary input 10:00: Michigan Sentiment can add a second impulse; weak sentiment keeps rallies fragile. PA roadmap Overnight: Expect balance inside 6655–6675 until 8:30. Liquidity likely pools above 6675 and below 6650 for the data sweep. NY AM (09:30–11:00): Trade the post-8:30 acceptance: continuation if 15m structure accepts beyond a zone; fade if we get swift rejection back inside. NY PM (13:30–16:00): Look for consolidation breaks toward untested AM extremes; avoid initiating inside mid-range chop. Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) A++ Acceptance Long (major) Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6670–6675, followed by 5m pullback that re-closes above. Entry: 1m HL after the 5m re-close. SL: Below the 15m trigger wick −0.25–0.50 pts. TPs: TP1 6705, TP2 6725, TP3 6760–6765. Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Invalidation: 15m body back inside 6670 (acceptance lost). A++ Acceptance Short (major) Trigger: 15m full-body close below 6655, then 5m pullback that fails and re-closes below. Entry: 1m LH after the 5m re-close. SL: Above the 15m trigger wick +0.25–0.50 pts. TPs: TP1 6631–6635, TP2 6605–6608, TP3 6580–6585. Management: Same as above. Invalidation: 15m body back above 6658.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Day 38 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$1,935 WinI’m trading one system, one ticker — S&P 500 futures — every single day for a full year. I journal every session to track progress, reflect, and sharpen my execution. If you’re serious about building consistency and treating trading like a business, you’re in the right place. Stick around — at the end, I’ll break down the key levels I’m watching for tomorrow. Let’s go. Recap & Trades Day 38 was different — I woke up late, wasn’t feeling well, and missed the morning’s big drop and recovery. Instead of forcing trades, I stayed patient on the sidelines. By the afternoon, DL and DD signals lined up beautifully. That’s when I stepped in, executed clean trades, and finished the session +$1,935. Proof that sometimes the best edge is waiting until the market gives you alignment.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
S&P 500: Rally Stalls, but Further Upside LikelyMidweek, the S&P 500 struggled to find the momentum needed to extend its climb within the magenta wave (3). However, our primary outlook still calls for this wave to reach a somewhat higher high. Afterward, wave (4) of the same color is expected to take over, guiding the index into the magenta Target Zone between 6,283 and 5,781 points. In wave (5), another upward phase is anticipated, which should ultimately complete the broader uptrend of the blue wave (III) at an even higher price level.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
1
ES-mini Futures - (SPX) Analyses for Sep 25Market drivers for Thu, Sep 25 (ET) • 8:30 — GDP 2Q (Third estimate) + Corporate Profits (annual update). Official BEA release. • 8:30 — Durable Goods (Advance, Aug). Census M3 advance report (release time 8:30 a.m. ET). • 8:30 — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). DoL weekly claims (standard Thu 8:30 a.m. ET cadence). • 10:00 — Existing-Home Sales (Aug). National Association of Realtors, scheduled for Thu 10:00 a.m. ET. • Fed speakers — Vice Chair Bowman: 9:00 a.m. (Economic Outlook) and 1:00 p.m. (Approach to Monetary Policy). • Treasury — Multiple bill auctions scheduled for Sep 25 (4-, 6-, 13-, 26-, 52-week). Watch rate/curve reaction around midday. • (Context) Atlanta Fed GDPNow next update Fri, Sep 26 (used by markets for GDP tracking). Risk windows to respect: 8:30 (data cluster) and 10:00 (housing). Avoid fresh entries ~5m before/after these prints; expect liquidity gaps. Overall bias & PA projection (overnight → tomorrow) Structure: Uptrend on higher timeframes, but near a weekly/4H supply cap ~6,76x–6,78x with a fresh H1 pullback printed. Bias into NY: Balanced-to-slightly-bullish if 6,67x holds. Below that, rotation toward the extension cluster 6,66x–6,64x likely before buyers try again. Overnight projection: Asia/London likely to range 6,68x–6,70x. A London stop-run under 6,678 that quickly reclaims sets the stage for NY bounce. Acceptance below 6,672 opens 6,659 → 6,640 → 6,619. NY session — A++ setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) Management rules (as usual): TP1 = next opposing MAJOR level; close 70% at TP1, leave 30% runner → TP2/TP3; hard SL = 15m trigger wick ±0.25–0.50pt; time-stop 45–60m; max 2 attempts per level. ES SHORT (A++) — Rejection Fade at 6,735–6,750 Trigger: 15m rejection close back inside the zone → 5m re-close down with LH → 1m pullback fail to enter. Entry: 6,740 ±2 (within zone after the 1m pullback). SL: Above the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,768. • TP1: 6,700 pivot. • TP2: 6,678–6,672 shelf. • TP3: 6,659–6,640 ext cluster. Invalidation / maintenance: Two whipsaws or a 15m body-through ≥1.0pt above 6,768 → demote/stand down; acceptance >6,768 flips bias to longs toward 6,78x. ES LONG (A++) — Acceptance-Continuation from 6,658–6,642 Context: High-prob “flush & reclaim” at the extension cluster before/after 8:30 data. Trigger: 15m full-body close back above 6,652, 5m HL + re-close up, 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,650 ±3 after reclaim. SL: Below the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,637. • TP1: 6,700 pivot. • TP2: 6,724–6,735 supply. • TP3: 6,760–6,770 (weekly cap). Notes: If the 8:30 print gaps price through TP1 immediately, manage fills but still honor runner plan; no trailing before TP2 per protocol. ========== London session game plan (02:00–05:00 ET) Base case: Range 6,678–6,700 with liquidity sweeps. Reclaim of 6,700 during London often fades back into the range; prefer patience for NY AM. Alternative: London sell program to 6,66x–6,64x → if quick reclaim above 6,652, that’s the Tier-2 bounce that feeds the NY long setup. Bear path: Acceptance <6,640 in London → prepare for a trend-day lower toward 6,619 unless NY reverses on data.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Day 37 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$1,559 Bearish BreakdownDay 37 of Trading Only S&P Futures is wrapped up with a strong green day — finishing +$1,559. The session didn’t start smooth. Running on 4 hours of sleep, I accidentally put in a buy order instead of a sell order at the 1-min MOB level. That mistake cost me some early profits, but once I flipped short, the bearish structure was undeniable. From there, it was all about riding the trend down — stacking shorts as sell signals and structure aligned. A strong reminder that even with mistakes, discipline and following the signals can still turn the day around. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6725 = Flip Bullish Below 6708 = Remain Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
ES (E-mini S&P 500) — Plan for Wed Sep 24Fundamentals (tomorrow, ET) 04:00 Germany IFO Business Climate (often moves European risk tone during London). 10:00 U.S. New Home Sales (Aug) — official Census schedule lists New Residential Sales at 10:00 a.m.. 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard time each Wed). 13:00 U.S. 5-Year Note auction (can nudge yields/indices). Context: Yesterday’s U.S. flash PMIs showed slower but still-expanding activity (Composite 53.6 vs 54.6 Aug). Bias(HTF→LTF) HTF: Uptrend but near prior highs; Tuesday printed a lower-timeframe selloff into ~6,701–6,705 (confluence with D1 1.272 ≈ 6,705). Base case into London: Two-way trade inside 6,701–6,744–6,756 triad while Europe digests IFO. Two paths for NY: Acceptance ↑ above 6,756.5 → squeeze the weak-highs toward 6,765–6,770, then 6,798–6,800 (D1 1.618). Acceptance ↓ below 6,701–6,705 → trend rotation toward 6,690s → 6,680s (next liquidity shelves). London session game plan If Europe pushes up early: Watch 6,744. Failure there → rotate back to 6,711–6,718; clean reclaim → sets NY for a 6,756 test. If Europe bleeds down: Look for sweep & hold behavior at 6,701–6,705; loss of that area on 15m body-through tends to trend extend into the 6,69x/6,68x shelves before NY AM. NY AM (09:30–11:00 ET) and NY PM (13:30–16:00 ET) → full size, run the exact confirmations and targets I gave. A++ Acceptance LONG — above 6,756.5 Confirmations (15/5/1): • 15m full-body close above 6,756.5 (acceptance). • 5m pullback holds ≥ 6,754–6,756 and re-closes up. • 1m HL entry on first clean re-trigger. Entry: 6,756–6,758 on the retest (or continuation >6,760 after 5m re-close). Hard SL: below the 15m trigger wick or < 6,744 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is lower). Targets: TP1 6,765–6,770, TP2 6,798–6,800, TP3 6,901. Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trail before TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level. Invalidation: 15m close back inside < 6,756 after entry that fails the 5m hold → cancel and reassess. ============= A++ Acceptance SHORT — below 6,701–6,705 Confirmations (15/5/1): • 15m full-body close below 6,701 (body-through the band). • 5m LH + re-close down on the retest of 6,701–6,705. • 1m LH entry on first pullback failure. Entry: 6,699–6,703 on the retest. Hard SL: above the 15m trigger wick or > 6,705 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is higher). Targets: TP1 6,690–6,692, TP2 6,680–6,685, TP3 trail if trend accelerates. Management: Same rules as Setup #1 (TP1 70% + runner to BE; 45–60m time-stop; max 2 attempts). Invalidation: Reclaim on 15m back above 6,705 that holds → cancel the short. ⸻ Risk & timing notes • 10:00 New Home Sales and 10:30 EIA can cause abrupt spikes; favor entries after the first post-data 5m bar closes unless already in with cushion. • 13:00 5-Year auction can alter yield curve into the NY PM window; manage runners.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
4
Day 36 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$1175 LossDay 36 of Trading Only S&P Futures is in the books — and it wasn’t pretty. I started the session well, up about +$100, but got greedy and overleveraged at 6728 thinking Powell’s comments would flip the market bullish. I was wrong. That single forced trade cost me the day, dropping -$1175. To make things worse, I missed the chance to buy the actual bottom near 6702. If I’d stayed patient, today could’ve been a very different outcome. Lesson learned: don’t rush, don’t get over-reliant on gamma levels, and trust my own TA and the algo more. 📰 News Highlights S&P 500, NASDAQ pull back from records as Powell says stocks are overvalued 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6725 = Flip Bullish Below 6700 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:MES1!
by DiYWALLST
1