Weekly Analysis of the S&P 500 (ES) - Sep 22 - 26 - UpdatedThe analysis for the upcoming week contained an error in the drawing. I have updated it, so this version is correct.
Bias
So, here's the deal: we're still on an upward trend, but price is pushing against a "ceiling cluster" just above us. Expect a slow climb for now until something changes.
As long as we stay above 6,700–6,705, dip buyers will probably step in and try to push things back up to the 6,73x/6,75x range.
When we hit 6,745–6,760, we might see some stalls or rejections because there’s not much support there. If we can get above 6,760 and hold it for 15 minutes, we could squeeze up to around 6,798.
On the flip side, if we drop below 6,700–6,705 and stay there for 15 minutes, the vibe could switch to a downward trend, with potential targets around 6,693 and then about 6,660.
In short: I'm feeling slightly bullish as long as we’re above 6,700. Watch for some action around 6,745–6,760, and consider going long only if we cleanly break above 6,760.
Quick game plan for tomorrow (NY kill-zones 9:30–11:00 & 13:30–16:00 ET)
Open > 6,710 and < 6,731: Buy dips into 6,720/6,710 aiming back to 6,731 → 6,745.
Gap/push into 6,745–6,760 early: Look for a 15m rejection to fade back toward 6,731/6,720. Accept > 6,760? Switch long and target 6,798.
Break and hold < 6,700–6,705: Stand down on longs; hunt bounces to sell toward 6,693 → 6,660.
Use Key Levels as a map.
Week-ahead fundamentals (ET) — what can move ES
Mon 9/22 — CFNAI (Chicago Fed) 8:30a. Tracks broad U.S. activity; August print due.
Tue 9/23 — S&P Global “flash” PMIs (Mfg/Services) 9:45a indicative timing; S&P’s week-ahead notes flash PMI on the 23rd.
Wed 9/24 — New Home Sales (Aug) 10:00a. Census’ July release notes the Aug report is scheduled Sep 24.
Thu 9/25 — Q2 GDP (third) 8:30a (BEA), Durable Goods (Aug) 8:30a (Census), Weekly Jobless Claims 8:30a (DOL).
Fri 9/26 — PCE & Core PCE (Aug) 8:30a (BEA) and U. Michigan sentiment (final Sep) 10:00a.
Fed speakers (mid-day risk): Mon 12:00p Gov. Miran; Tue 12:35p Powell; Thu 9:00a/1:00p Bowman/Barr; Fri 10:00a Bowman.
Treasury supply: 13- & 26-wk bill auctions Mon 9/22; 6-wk bill Tue 9/23; 2-yr FRN reopen Wed 9/24 (tentative schedule).
Earnings to note (Thu): Costco Q4 FY25 call Thu 9/25 2:00 pm PT; broader week list light otherwise.
Es1
S&P 500 (ES1!): Bullish! Buy The Dip! Keep It Simple!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 22 - 26th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P500 is still bullish, and there is no reason to short it.
Wait for price to pullback to a +FVG, and then look for valid buy setups on your entry TFs.
Don't jump into sells! They are against the trend and lower probability!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P 500 (ES1!): Wait For Longs! Buy The Dip!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 15 - 19h.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P500 is still bullish, and there is no reason to short it. The Bulls are clearly in control.
As price moves from ERL to IRL, the untouched +FVG below is a great place to look for a high probability long setup.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
ES (SPX) Analyses - Key Levels - Setups - Fri, Sep 19Bias:
After the recent FOMC meeting, where they cut rates by 25 basis points on September 18, the E-mini S&P 500 futures are looking a bit bullish. There’s decent support holding up, but expect some bumpy trading around those all-time highs. We might see the market bouncing between the usual value areas, with traders likely to fade the extremes unless there’s a strong breakout.
Momentum could slow down as we get close to overbought levels, which might lead to some profit-taking on any rallies. On the flip side, expect strong buying when prices dip. For now, the trading range looks to be between 6660 and 6710, with swings of about 20 to 30 points likely in quieter trading conditions.
Friday has no major U.S. data on the weekly calendar wrap; Thursday’s LEI fell −0.5% m/m in Aug (already out), so macro tape-bombs are limited.
Quadruple-witching: 09/19/2025 is the quarterly expiration (third Friday of Sep). Also note ESU25 last trade = Sep 19, even though most trading has rolled to ESZ25. Expect flowy opens/closes and possible “pin” behavior. 
Options positioning (ES):
• Report totals: 5.83M total OI; put/call = 3.51. 
• Friday weeklies: 2.676M OI; P/C = 5.09 (put-heavy into expiry). 
• Sep contract (ESU5, 2 DTE): ~1.07M total OI; P/C = 3.01; ~185k volume in the latest report. 
• Vol: 30-day ATM IV ≈ 12.33% (down slightly d/d). 
• 0DTE share in SPX options has been >60% of volume recently — expect same-day gamma flows to matter on a quad-witch Friday. 
Bottom line: This is a put-heavy, expiry-dense tape with subdued vol. Expect pinning/reversion around big strikes and flowy opens/closes rather than a trend day—unless price cleanly accepts outside the range.
Next known catalysts (not tomorrow but near-term): Flash PMIs Mon 9/22; U. Michigan final sentiment Fri 9/26.
Setup 1 — Tier-2 (A+ Bounce) LONG @ 6680–6695
Trigger: sweep 6680–6690 → 15m close back above 6693.5 (AS.L) → 5m re-close + HL → 1m pullback hold.
Entry: 6694–6697.
SL: below the 15m sweep low −0.5 pt (hard).
TP1: 6705–6707 (AS.H). TP2: 6718–6725 (W3).
Management: at TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE; aim TP2; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1/SL hits; max 2 attempts/level.
Setup 2 — Tier-1 (A++ Rejection-Fade) SHORT @ 6718–6725
Trigger: quick sweep above 6718–25 → 15m body back inside 6710 → 5m LH + re-close → 1m failure retest.
Entry: 6714–6718 on the re-close.
SL: above sweep high +0.5 pt.
TP1: 6705–6707; TP2: 6693–6695; stretch 6685–6680 only if momentum continues.
Management: same as above.
SPY options overlay (execution notes)
Given quarterly expiration and heavy 0DTE participation, prefer same-day SPY (AM window) with Δ≈0.60–0.70 on entries; consider 1-DTE for PM window to temper decay. (0DTE share data from Cboe.)
ES (SPX) Futures Analyses - Key Zones, Setups (Thur, Sep 17)Same map as last night.
Bias & structure
Price is pressing the box top 6,678–6,683 (1h AS.H 6,683.25) with a dense extension liquidity pocket above (D: 1.272 ≈ 6,763, 1.618 ≈ 6,856, 2.0 ≈ 6,959). We trade edge-only: fade a rejection at the top, or buy a sweep-and-reclaim at the control level.
Kill-zones (ET): London 02:00–05:00 (½–¾ size); NY AM 09:30–11:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00.
London (2 setups)
SHORT — Rejection Fade @ 6,678–6,683
15m tag → 15m close back ≤ 6,675 → 5m LH/re-close 6,672–6,674 → 1m LH entry 6,679–6,682.
Hard SL: above 15m rejection high +0.25–0.50.
TPs: 6,666–6,668 → 6,653–6,658 → 6,638–6,643.
Cancel if two 15m body-closes ≥ 6,685. Gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R.
LONG — Sweep & Reclaim @ 6,653–6,658 (bias pivot)
Wick below LIS → 15m close back ≥ 6,658 → 5m re-close up 6,664–6,666 + HL → 1m HL entry 6,659–6,662.
Hard SL: below sweep low −0.25–0.50.
TPs: 6,678–6,683 → 6,703 → 6,720–6,724 (runner eyes 6,744–6,750).
U.S. (NY) (2 setups)
LONG — Acceptance Continuation > 6,683
Two 5m closes ≥ 6,685 (or one decisive 15m) → PB hold 6,679–6,683 flips to support → enter on 1m HL.
SL: under acceptance pivot −0.50–1.00.
TPs: 6,703 → 6,720–6,724 → 6,744–6,750 (→ 6,760–6,765).
Fail back below 6,679 on 5m = stand down.
SHORT — Breakdown & Failed Reclaim < 6,653
15m body close < 6,653 → retest fails (6,653–6,658 caps) → sell 6,651–6,654 on the fail.
SL: above fail-wick +0.50–1.00.
TPs: 6,638–6,643 → 6,624.75–6,627.25 → 6,611.5–6,618.
Back above 6,658 on 5m = invalidate.
Management (all plays)
First-touch priority; TP1 ≥ 2.0R gate using the 15m-anchored hard SL; no partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70% and set runner to BE; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits; max 2 attempts per level per session.
Fundamentals to respect (London → U.S. a.m.)
Bank of England MPC decision & minutes — Thu 12:00 BST (07:00 ET). High-impact for indices/GBP; often injects vol into London PM/NY open.
UK ONS releases — Thu 09:30 BST (04:30 ET) (e.g., housing affordability & Business Insights this week). Moderate.
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims — Thu 08:30 ET (every Thursday; schedule page).
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey — Thu 08:30 ET.
• EIA Natural Gas Storage — Thu 10:30 ET.
Day 32 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$2,171 FOMC ReversalDay 32 of Trading Only S&P Futures is in the books!
The day started rough — I went long off an X7 buy signal at the 1-min MOB, got greedy, and ended up down -180 early. Instead of forcing it, I stepped away. By the afternoon, I was mapping out key levels ahead of FOMC.
That prep paid off. My orders for the “pop and drop” scenarios lined up perfectly with the signals. I made back my losses and finished +$2,171. Discipline + structure = consistency.
📰 News Highlights
Fed projections show 9 of 19 officials see two more cuts in 2025
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6670 = Flip Bullish
Below 6640 = Flip Bearish
S&P500 Risks drop to the 4H MA200 if MA50 fails.The S&P500 index (SPX) is experiencing a strong intra-day correction that just hit its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since September 05. As long as this holds, we expect a gradual rise, targeting 6800 (representing a +3.89% increase similar to July's).
A 1D candle closing below the 4H MA50 however, has historically paved the way to more selling within the 4-month Channel Up, that touched the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) before rebounding. If that candle closing takes place, we will close the 4H MA50 buy on minimum loss and buy on the 4H MA200, targeting 6700 (sharp rebound similar to all 4H MA200 bounces).
Keep also an eye on the 4H RSI Buy Zone. It has given the 5 most optimal buy entries during these 4 months. Note also that the 4H MA200 has been holding as Support since the April 25 break-out.
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ES (SPX) Analyses for Wed, Sep 17 - FOMC - Key ZonesBias:
The weekly and daily trends are staying positive, with higher highs and higher lows. We're in an uptrend, but right now, we're hitting some resistance instead of pushing into new territory.
Price-wise, we’re stuck in a range between two key levels: there’s some overhead resistance at 6678–6683 (that's the top of yesterday’s range and where things first started to react) and 6703 (which is a key point to watch). On the flip side, the lower support level is at 6653–6658 (this was the high from last week, and often when we retest it, it leads to buying).
Here’s what it all means: If we can stay above 6653–6658 and get rejected around 6678–6683, it might be a good idea to take some short positions back down to that support level. If we do manage to reclaim the lower support after a dip or if we break above 6703, we could continue upward to around 6720–6724, then maybe 6744–6750, and even 6760–6765.
If the bias shifts, like if we see price acceptance below 6653, that could signal a sell-off targeting 6643, then 6627, and possibly down to 6611–6618. On the other hand, if we see acceptance above 6703, it could bring back some long momentum.
Setups (Level-KZ 15m→5m→1m)
LONG — Sweep & Reclaim at 6653–6658 (LIS)
Idea: Liquidity grab into LIS, then buyers step back in.
15m trigger: Wick through 6653–6658 that closes back ≥ 6658.
5m confirm: Re-close up through 6664–6666 with a higher low.
1m entry: First HL pullback that holds 6659–6662.
Hard SL: Below the 15m sweep wick ±0.25–0.50.
• Targets: TP1 6678–6683, TP2 6703, TP3 6720–6724 (leave runner for 6744–6750).
SHORT — Rejection Fade at 6678–6683 (overhead)
Idea: First test into the box top fails; sell the rally back inside.
15m trigger: Probe 6678–6683 that closes back ≤ 6675.
5m confirm: Lower high + re-close down through 6672–6674.
1m entry: First LH retest 6679–6682 that fails.
Hard SL: Above the 15m rejection wick ±0.25–0.50.
• Targets: TP1 6666–6668, TP2 6653–6658, TP3 6638–6643.
• Skip if TP1 < 2.0R versus your wick stop.
We might see some compression before the FOMC meeting, especially in the early afternoon. It’s probably best to just react to any trades at the edges. The real action usually kicks off between 2:00 and 2:35 pm when the statement comes out and the Q&A starts.
In the morning, there’ll be some mixed signals with housing data at 8:30, EIA at 10:30, and the VIX settling, which could cause some quick, random spikes. Just treat those as noise unless they really break through your levels.
And don’t forget, the flows leading into Friday’s OPEX can really amp up the swings after the FOMC. The gamma profile tends to reset after the press conference too.
Day 31 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$24 Near Breakeven“I actually started the day rough — down nearly -400 overnight after an oversized short on that early X7 sell signal. That put me close to my stop-loss limit, so I forced myself to wait for 2–3 confirmations before entering again.
By slowing down and focusing only on high-probability trades, I was able to grind my way back to nearly breakeven — closing the day at just -24.
The key lesson? Overleveraging at night cost me what could have been an easy green day. Discipline around size is just as important as reading the signals.”
News Context:
“On the macro side, Bessent said a 25 basis-point cut is already priced in. No surprises there, but it reinforces why the market isn’t reacting much to Fed talk at this point.”
Key Levels for Tomorrow:
“Here’s what I’ll be watching:
Above 6660 = Stay bullish
Below 6645 = Flip bearish
Dovish Spells or Hawkish Surprises? FOMC Prep for ES, NQ, GCLet’s start with the biggest event this week. Unless, of course, some unexpected headline swoops in and steals the spotlight — because markets love a good plot twist.
Emotions are running high, and volatility is flying around like confetti at a surprise party nobody asked for. But don’t worry, Chair Powell might just play the role of the calm voice in the chaos.
Markets are pricing in a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed this week. Interestingly, the future path of rate cut expectations has been in the doldrums. Is it a bird or a plane? No, it’s Superman. Likewise here, is it 1 cut or 2 cuts? No, it’s 3 cuts priced at this moment until the end of 2025.
Excuse the humor, but what fun is it if you cannot entertain yourself while analyzing the complexities of markets day in and day out. Execution is boring; risk management is much like dementors sucking out life force when risk is not respected. And analyzing and preparation is where the creativity and fun is.
And as Kurt Angle would say, it is “ True ”.
Index futures including ES futures and NQ futures have all climbed steadily higher since September 2 low. Markets are turning higher in anticipation of a new bull run.
Gold futures are rallying, currently trading above $3700. Since the Jackson Hole dovish pivot, gold has not looked back and has rocketed higher above major resistance.
Our focus is on the Fed meeting. All eyes will be on the forward guidance; risks to inflation, risks for the labor market and FED’s SEP (Summary of Economic Projections). This also includes GDP forecasts and the most anticipated Dot Plot.
Which of the two mandates will the Fed prioritize, labor market weakness or sticky inflation? The interesting thing to note is that despite sticky inflation, markets are anticipating 3 cuts of 25 bps for each of the meetings this year.
Thus far, as we have previously mentioned, the Fed will likely be moving away from their 2% inflation target to an average inflation target in the range of 2% to 3%.
This also implies that real rates i.e., nominal less inflation are going to fall sharply lower.
Given this, we anticipate gold to continue higher as the US Dollar's purchasing power erodes away, with mounting debt, higher inflation and falling real yields.
The real question we should be asking is:
What if the meeting outcome is hawkish with the Fed delivering just 1 cut in the September meeting and staying on hold for the remainder of the year?
What other risks are there that could pull stocks and indexes lower? And bonds higher?
Tariffs at this point seem like an old talk unless something reinvigorates and puts them on the front and center of market worries.
Based on these thoughts, here are our scenarios:
Base Case:
25 bps cuts and dovish guidance but iterates meeting by meeting approach.
ES & NQ:
Data dependent Fed, that is likely behind the curve and markets may translate this as Fed too slow to react to emerging risks, risks of recession goes higher. In this case, although stocks may push higher with rates coming down initially, in our view, much of this is priced in and this may be ‘sell the fact moment’.
Portfolio adjustment: Sell index futures, Buy Gold and Bonds.
Ultra-Dovish:
Fed’s dot plot confirms 2 additional rate cuts of 25 bps for Oct and Dec meeting and further 4 cuts till end of 2026 to bring terminal rate lower to 250-275.
USD weakens further, real rates sink, reinforcing gold bid.
Portfolio adjustment: Buy everything. Buy the dip.
Hawkish Surprise
Only 25 bps in September, then pause
ES & NQ:
• Sharp pullback as equities reprice for tighter liquidity.
• ES could retrace recent gains, downside risk toward 4,900–5,000 zone.
• NQ likely hit harder due to tech sensitivity to discount rate.
GC:
• Short-term correction as USD firms and yields spike.
• However, downside may be limited if market shifts focus back to debt & long-term inflation risks.
Risk-Off External Shock- Geopolitical event, tariffs
ES & NQ:
• Drop as risk sentiment sours; defensives outperform growth.
• Bonds rally, yields fall, curve steepens if Fed cut expectations accelerate.
GC:
• Strong safe-haven bid, spikes higher regardless of Fed stance.
Comment with your thoughts and let us know how you see the markets shaping up this week
ES (SPX) - Analyses - Key zones - Trade Setups for Tue, Sep 16Bias: BUY DIPS into 6653–6643. Continuation long on 15m acceptance ≥ 6722–6726 with a 5m hold. Counter-trend short only on a clean 15m rejection at 6722–6726 (2.0R gate).
Why bullish bias (even with short fade allowed)
So, here’s why I’m leaning bullish (but I’m cool with a short fade now and then):
First off, when you check out the higher time frame (HTF), the trend is up. It’s usually a better bet to buy when prices dip rather than trying to call the top.
Then there's the risk situation: if we look at support around 6638–6643 and resistance levels at 6678/6700, we can set up for a nice 2R–3R trade with tight stops based on the 15-minute chart.
As for shorts, we’re going against the trend here. The only reason to short would be if we hit major resistance around 6722–6726. But if we don’t see a proper rejection, I’m not going to push it—I’ll just stick to going long.
Setups:
Long — Dip Buy (primary)
• Zone: 6653–6658 (Support-Initial) → 6638–6643 (Support-Next).
• Trigger: 15m reclaims support (body back above) → 5m re-close up with HL → 1m HL entry.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6700–6706 (then trail only after TP2).
Tomorrow’s key U.S. events (ET)
• Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales — 8:30 (consumer pulse; can move index futures).
• Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization — 9:15.
• NAHB Housing Market Index — 10:00.
• Import/Export Price Indexes — 8:30.
• Treasury bill auctions (4- & 8-week; supply headline).
• FOMC (two-day) begins Tue; decision & SEP/dot plot Wed.
• Monthlies/OPEX: Fri Sep 19 (flows can affect tape later in week).
Long — Acceptance Continuation (secondary)
• Flip condition: 15m full-body ≥ 6722–6726 and 5m holds ≥ 6720–6722.
• Entry: 6721–6723 HL retest.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6760–6765 → 6804–6808.
Short — Rejection Fade (counter-trend, extremes only)
• Zone: Resistance — Major 6722–6726 (or 6700–6706 if Major remains untagged).
• Trigger: 15m sweep & body back inside → 5m LH re-close → 1m fail/reclaim sell.
• SL: 15m sweep-high +0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6653–6658 → 6638–6643.
Day 30 — Trading Only S&P Futures | One-Month MarkDay 30 of Trading Only S&P Futures is in the books!
I started the day a little rough, down -100 from an overnight trade, but patience paid off. Watching NQ DD buy signals kept me from forcing shorts early, and SPX gamma levels showed 6620 as the top. Once we hit it, I shorted and played the range for steady gains, finishing with a clean MOB bounce for +196.94.
Big milestone here — 30 straight days of trading only the S&P Futures. The consistency is starting to show, and the lessons are stacking up fast.
📰 News Highlights
VIX jumped 6% while the market gained 0.5% — an odd divergence worth watching.
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow=
Above 6645 = Remain Bullish
Below 6635 = Flip Bearish
ES — Week Ahead (Sep 15–19) — Fundamentals & Key Risk WindowsMacro focus: FOMC (Wed 2:00/2:30 pm ET), plus Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, and LEI.
Calendar (ET):
Tue 9/16
• Retail Sales (Aug) 8:30 — Census schedule confirms Sep 16, 8:30 am release.
• Industrial Production (Aug) 9:15 — G.17 release calendar shows Sep 16 at 9:15 am.
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep) 10:00 — NAHB schedule sets Sep 16, 10:00 am.
• FOMC (Day 1) begins — Fed calendar.
Wed 9/17
• Housing Starts/Permits (Aug) 8:30 — Census/HUD note next report Sep 17, 8:30 am.
• FOMC Statement 2:00 / Powell 2:30 — Fed event calendar.
Thu 9/18
• Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 — DOL weekly; last print 263k (spike tied to TX/fraud anomalies).
• Philly Fed (MBOS) 8:30 — 3rd Thu schedule.
• Conference Board LEI 10:00 — next release Sep 18, 10:00 am.
Fri 9/19
• State Employment (Aug) 10:00 — BLS schedule.
• (FYI for next week: Existing Home Sales (Aug) Tue Sep 23, 10:00 am.)
Context to watch:
• Markets widely expect a 25 bp cut at the Sep 16–17 FOMC; path/“dots” and Powell’s tone matter more than the cut size.
• Michigan sentiment (prelim) fell to 55.4 with inflation expectations elevated (1-yr 4.8%, 5-yr 3.9%).
Tomorrow (Mon 9/15) — Trade Plan
Kill-zones (ET): NY AM 09:30–11:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00.
News risk: NAHB 10:00 (size down or wait 2–3m around print)
Long from support 6586 → TP1 6600
• 15m trigger: Rejection at 6586 (close ≥ 6587 after testing ≤ 6585).
• 5m confirm: Higher-low + close ≥ 6588.
• 1m entry: First retest that closes back above 6587.
• Hard SL: 15m wick low − 0.25–0.50.
• TP1: 6600 (book 70%, runner 30% @ BE).
• TP2 (runner): 6606.25.
Short from resistance 6600 → TP1 6586
• 15m trigger: Rejection at 6600 (close < 6596.5 after probing ≥ 6598.5).
• 5m confirm: Lower-high + close < 6596.0.
• 1m entry: First retest that closes back below 6596.5.
• Hard SL: 15m wick high + 0.25–0.50.
• TP1: 6586 (book 70%, runner 30% @ BE).
• TP2 (runner): 6581.50.
Weekly plan—how fundamentals change our timing
• Tue AM (Retail Sales 8:30 / IP 9:15 / HMI 10:00): Expect a more directional NY AM; trade level→level but avoid first prints by ±3–5m.
• Wed (FOMC 2:00/2:30): Treat NY PM as the main event; no positions carried into 1:55–2:35 unless already at TP1 with runner @ BE.
• Thu (Claims/Philly/LEI): 8:30–10:00 stack can create a trend morning; trade acceptance if a 15m body prints through a level.
Day 29 — Trading Only S&P Futures | From Red to GreenWelcome to Day 29 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
The day started bearish, and my early shorts worked — until the market began spiking up and flipping bullish. Some of those positions hit stop-loss, so I stepped back and waited.
At 6605 gamma resistance, I shorted again with conviction and rode the reversal back into positive territory, finishing the day at +91.81.
This was a good reminder to not overstay trades when conditions are choppy, and to wait for the high-probability levels to do the heavy lifting.
📰 News Highlights
U.S. SEPTEMBER MICHIGAN 5-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RISES 3.9%; EST. 3.4%; PREV. 3.5%
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6565 = Remain Bullish
Below 6535 = Flip Bearish
ES (SPX) Futures Analyses for tomorrow Sep 12Overnight
Expect balance 6586–6596 with a modest bullish tilt. If ON accepts >6596.5, drift toward 6603–6606 is likely before NY.
Tomorrow (NY session)
Base case: Early range, then acceptance >6596.5 (close + clean retest) → expansion to 6606 → 6612 → 6616–6619 (HTF extension band).
Failure path: Rejection at 6596–6600 and acceptance <6586 → rotate 6581 → 6577; deeper only if 6577 fails (then 6566/6556).
Fundamentals (times ET)
10:00 — Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Sep). This is the only major macro print on deck; expect a 2–5m whipsaw around the release, then directional follow-through after displacement.
Today’s context: CPI (Aug) came in +0.4% m/m, +2.9% y/y; Core +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y, and Initial Jobless Claims rose to 263k (week ending Sep 6). Together: inflation still sticky but labor softening—into tomorrow this supports “range→up unless 6586 breaks.”
Day 28 S&P Futures | -$78 Trading While Under the WeatherWelcome to Day 28 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
Not my best day — I was feeling under the weather and missed the open. Took a trade at resistance that didn’t work out and left some limit orders higher up at GEX resistance levels. Most of the session I stayed on the sidelines, but my end-of-day orders finally filled and gave me a decent recovery.
Sometimes the best decision when you’re not 100% is to step back and avoid forcing trades.
📰 News Highlights
DOW CLOSES UP OVER 600 POINTS, VIX TUMBLES AS STOCKS END AT RECORD HIGHS AFTER CPI DATA
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6540 = Remain Bullish
Below 6520 = Flip Bearish
Multi-Asset Market Analysis & Trade IdeasAnalysis Date : September 10, 2025
Trading Analyst : Institutional Intelligence Framework
Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System with Enhanced Volume Profile Analysis
Executive Summary
Current market analysis reveals exceptional institutional opportunities across equity indices with significant commodity sector divergence. The enhanced institutional intelligence framework identifies unprecedented buying dominance in major equity markets while revealing dangerous extensions in traditional safe-haven assets.
Portfolio Allocation Strategy : 75-85% equity allocation with minimal commodity/currency exposure based on institutional positioning intelligence.
Primary Opportunities (70-85% Total Allocation)
1. NASDAQ 100 (NQ) - 25-30% ALLOCATION
Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Institutional Backing
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 26.8:1 buying dominance (6.18M UP vs 230.69K DOWN)
Current Position : 23,963 (+3.4% above Q3 POC 23,186)
Support Structure : Exceptional multi-quarter institutional foundation
Risk Assessment : LOWEST RISK - strongest institutional conviction identified
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (65% probability) :
Entry : /MNQ at current levels or any pullback to 23,500-23,600
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 24,500 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 25,000 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 25,500+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 23,000 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (25% probability) :
Range : 23,200-24,200 consolidation
Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness toward 23,400
Management : Hold core position, trade edges of range
Re-evaluation : Weekly basis for breakout confirmation
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 23,000 (institutional support failure)
Action : Exit all positions immediately
Re-entry : Require fresh institutional accumulation evidence
Risk Control : Maximum 2% loss on allocation
2. S&P 500 (ES) - 25-30% ALLOCATION
Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Support
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 5.21:1 buying dominance (11.3M UP vs 2.17M DOWN)
Current Position : 6,550 (+2.7% above Q3 POC 6,375)
Support Structure : Consistent institutional accumulation across quarters
Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - exceptional institutional backing
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (70% probability) :
Entry : /MES at current levels or pullback to 6,450-6,500
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 6,650 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 6,750 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 6,850+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 6,300 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (20% probability) :
Range : 6,400-6,600 consolidation
Strategy : Accumulate on weakness, trim on strength
Management : Maintain core position size
Monitoring : Weekly institutional level respect
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 6,300 (institutional support violation)
Action : Systematic position reduction
Stop Loss : 6,250 (complete exit level)
Re-entry : Wait for institutional re-engagement signals
3. DOW JONES (YM) - 20-25% ALLOCATION
Classification : HIGH CONVICTION - YTD POC Validation
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 11.5:1 buying dominance (455.32K UP vs 83.17K DOWN)
YTD POC Alignment : Perfect alignment with Q1 POC at 45,150
Current Position : 45,651 (+1.1% above institutional consensus)
Risk Assessment : VERY LOW RISK - optimal positioning
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (75% probability) :
Entry : /MYM at current levels (optimal positioning confirmed)
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 46,200 (close 40% position)
Target 2 : 46,800 (close 30% position)
Target 3 : 47,500+ (trail remaining 30%)
Stop Loss : 44,800 (below YTD/Q1 POC consensus)
Neutral Scenario (20% probability) :
Range : 45,000-46,000 consolidation around institutional consensus
Strategy : Hold core position, add on dips to 45,200
Management : Optimal risk/reward positioning maintained
Advantage : Minimal downside to institutional support
Bearish Scenario (5% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 45,000 (YTD POC violation)
Action : Reduce position by 50%
Ultimate Stop : 44,500 (complete exit)
Assessment : Highly unlikely given institutional validation
Secondary Opportunities (15-20% Total Allocation)
4. WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) - 15-20% ALLOCATION
Classification : SOLID OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Foundation
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 1.94:1 buying dominance (1.38M UP vs 710.76K DOWN)
Current Position : 63.27 (within Q3 institutional accumulation zone)
Support Structure : Massive Q2 institutional accumulation at 57.50
Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - multiple institutional support layers
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (60% probability) :
Entry : /MCL at current levels or pullback to 62.50-63.00
Position Size : Maximum 2% account risk per position
Target 1 : 67.00 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 69.00 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 71.00+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 61.50 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (30% probability) :
Range : 62.00-65.00 consolidation within institutional zone
Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness
Management : Patient accumulation approach
Support : Strong institutional backing provides downside protection
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 61.00 (institutional support failure)
Action : Exit positions systematically
Re-entry : 58.00 area (Q2 POC support)
Risk Management : Tight stops due to support proximity
Defensive Positions (8-12% Total Allocation)
5. NATURAL GAS (NG) - 8-12% ALLOCATION
Classification : MODERATE RISK - Declining Institutional Engagement
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : Mixed activity with reduced institutional participation
Q1 Peak : 10.6:1 buying dominance (697K UP vs 65K DOWN) - historical high
Current Concern : 65% volume decline from Q1 peaks
Risk Assessment : MODERATE - institutional disengagement evident
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (45% probability) :
Entry : Current levels only with tight risk controls
Position Size : Maximum 1.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 3.40 (close 60% position)
Target 2 : 3.60 (close remaining 40%)
Stop Loss : 2.90 (below Q3 POC support)
Neutral Scenario (35% probability) :
Range : 3.00-3.20 consolidation
Strategy : Avoid new positions, monitor for re-engagement
Management : Maintain defensive positioning
Watch : Volume quality for institutional return
Bearish Scenario (20% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 2.90 (Q3 support failure)
Action : Complete position liquidation
Assessment : Institutional abandonment acceleration
Avoidance : No re-entry until fresh accumulation evidence
Risk Management Positions (8-13% Total Allocation)
6. EURO FUTURES (6E) - 5-8% ALLOCATION
Classification : DEFENSIVE ONLY - Dangerous Extension
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
YTD POC Analysis : 1.0525 (aligned with Q1 POC)
Current Position : 1.1769 (+12.9% above institutional consensus)
Extension Risk : DANGEROUS - trading far beyond smart money positioning
Risk Assessment : HIGH RISK - profit-taking territory
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (25% probability) :
Entry : AVOID new long positions
Existing Positions : Systematic profit-taking recommended
Target : 1.1850 maximum (close all positions)
Risk : Overextension beyond institutional support
Neutral Scenario (35% probability) :
Range : 1.1650-1.1800 at dangerous extension levels
Strategy : Range trading only with tight stops
Position Size : Maximum 1% account risk
Management : Defensive positioning required
Bearish Scenario (40% probability) :
Trigger : Any breakdown below 1.1700
Target : Return to institutional consensus (1.0525)
Action : Short opportunities on strength
Strategy : Mean reversion to YTD POC likely
7. GOLD FUTURES (GC) - 3-5% ALLOCATION
Classification : EXTREME CAUTION - Maximum Extension
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Extension Analysis : 12.2% above all institutional positioning
Q2 Peak Activity : 11.5:1 buying dominance at 3,430 levels
Current Position : 2,676 (extremely overextended)
Risk Assessment : MAXIMUM RISK - correction vulnerability
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (15% probability) :
Entry : AVOID all new long positions
Existing : Immediate profit-taking recommended
Risk : Extreme overextension unsustainable
Management : Defensive exit strategy only
Neutral Scenario (25% probability) :
Range : 2,650-2,700 at unsustainable levels
Strategy : No positioning recommended
Assessment : Range trading too risky given extension
Monitoring : Watch for breakdown signals
Bearish Scenario (60% probability) :
Target : 3,400-3,500 (return to institutional zones)
Correction Magnitude : 12-15% decline likely
Strategy : Short opportunities on any strength
Entry : /MGC shorts on rallies above 2,690
Stop : 2,720 (tight risk control)
Target : 3,450 (institutional accumulation zone)
Risk Management Protocols
Position Sizing Framework
Maximum Risk Per Trade : 2% of account value
Maximum Sector Exposure : 6% (energy, metals, currencies)
Portfolio Heat : Maximum 15% total risk across all positions
Cash Reserve : 5-12% for opportunities and margin requirements
Stop Loss Hierarchy
Tactical Stops : 2-3 Renko blocks on execution charts
Strategic Stops : Below/above institutional POC levels
Emergency Stops : Below major quarterly support levels
Time Stops : Exit if no progress within 15 trading days
Profit Taking Protocol
Systematic Approach :
Target 1 : Close 40-50% of position at 2:1 risk/reward
Target 2 : Close 25-30% of position at 3:1 risk/reward
Target 3 : Trail remaining 20-25% with institutional level stops
Correlation Management
Equity Exposure : Maximum 75-85% combined (NQ+ES+YM)
Commodity Exposure : Maximum 25-30% combined (CL+NG)
Currency Exposure : Maximum 10% (6E only)
Safe Haven Exposure : Maximum 5% (GC defensive only)
Market Scenario Planning
Scenario A: Continued Equity Strength (60% probability)
Characteristics : Institutional accumulation continues, economic resilience
Winners : NQ, ES, YM (maximize equity allocation)
Losers : GC, 6E (extension corrections)
Strategy : Aggressive equity positioning, defensive commodity stance
Scenario B: Market Consolidation (25% probability)
Characteristics : Range-bound trading around institutional levels
Winners : YM (optimal positioning), CL (institutional support)
Neutral : NQ, ES (trade ranges)
Strategy : Reduce position sizes, focus on institutional level trading
Scenario C: Risk-Off Environment (15% probability)
Characteristics : Institutional support failure, flight to quality
Winners : Cash, defensive positioning
Losers : All risk assets
Strategy : Emergency protocols, systematic position reduction
Trigger : Break below major institutional support levels
Weekly Monitoring Checklist
Daily Assessment
Institutional POC level respect across all markets
Volume quality and institutional engagement trends
Position sizing within risk parameters
Stop loss proximity to institutional levels
Weekly Review
Portfolio allocation vs. target percentages
Risk/reward ratios for all open positions
Institutional volume profile evolution
Correlation analysis across positions
Performance tracking vs. benchmarks
Monthly Evaluation
Quarterly volume profile updates
YTD POC alignment reassessment
Strategy performance attribution
Risk management protocol effectiveness
Market regime change identification
Key Success Factors
Institutional Intelligence Priority
Decision Hierarchy :
Institutional volume profile positioning (strategic)
YTD POC alignment validation (tactical)
Technical indicator confirmation (execution)
Risk management protocols (defensive)
Discipline Requirements
Systematic adherence to position sizing formulas
Emotional detachment from individual trade outcomes
Institutional level respect over short-term price action
Professional risk management with systematic protocols
Performance Expectations
Win Rate Target : 55-65% (institutional backing advantage)
Risk/Reward Minimum : 2:1 average across all trades
Maximum Drawdown : <8% of trading capital
Consistency : Positive monthly returns 65%+ of time
Disclaimer : All trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Position sizes and risk management protocols must be adjusted based on individual account size and risk tolerance. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered personalized investment advice.
Document Status : Active trading framework requiring weekly updates and quarterly reassessment.
SPX - 2 Month Bearish DivergenceHello Traders,
As shown you can see the two month bearish divergence on the index. My thoughts are it needs resolved soon than later and the inflation data coming up next could be the spark that finally gets it going.... We will find out tomorrow at 8:30 if the data comes in hot the market will not like that.. We could get a selloff in stocks and crypto on no other than 9-11 anniversary. Stay tunes and lets see if I nailed this one or not.
ES (SPX) Analyses for Thu, Sep 11 (CPI day)What matters tomorrow (fundamentals)
CPI (Aug) at 8:30 ET — the BLS schedule shows the August CPI release Thu Sep 11, 08:30 ET. This is the day’s primary driver.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 ET — standard Thursday release; calendars show the event scheduled for Sep 11 at 08:30 ET.
Treasury 30-yr bond auction — $22B long-bond sale Thursday (typically 13:00 ET). This can move yields into the NY afternoon and spill into equities.
Context into the print: PPI (Aug) was released today (Sep 10); YoY +2.6% per data trackers/BLS release, keeping focus on CPI for confirmation. Markets are leaning toward a Fed cut at next week’s meeting.
I’m using your 1D / 4H / 1H.
Trend: Uptrend intact on 1D; price sits just beneath a “weak-high / premium” supply band. (1D shows fib extensions near ~6705 (1.272) and ~6799 (1.618) as far targets, not base-case for tomorrow.)
4H: Recent push into a red supply band then pullback; mid-range equilibrium roughly ~6,44x–6,45x.
1H: Resistance zone ~6,558–6,565 (your “Weak High” band). Prior highs around ~6,536–6,540 act as local pivot/PMH; below that, demand/discount blocks stack ~6,50x → 6,46x–6,44x.
Scenario A — Disinflationary/soft CPI (yields down)
Likely path: Early sell-side sweep into 6,51x → 6,49x discount → bullish MSS.
Entry: Buy the 1–5m PD-array in discount after displacement.
Targets: 6,536–6,540 → 6,558–6,565 (weak-high). Leave runner toward 6,57x–6,58x only if order-flow stays bid.
Invalidation: 1–5m structure loses 6,49x and cannot reclaim.
Scenario B — Hot CPI (yields up)
Likely path: Buy-side sweep through 6,558–6,565 → failure → bearish MSS back below the band.
Entry: Short premium PD-array after displacement down.
Targets: 6,536–6,540 → 6,51x, stretch 6,49x then 6,46x–6,44x if momentum accelerates.
Invalidation: Acceptance back above 6,565 with bullish structure.
Projections:
ES futures are anticipated to respond within a 5-15 minute window following the 8:30 AM release, with intraday movements likely intensified by algorithmic trading and stop-hunting activities. Historical analysis of the past 6 CPI events indicates an average end-of-day ES move of approximately +0.76% in response to ±0.1% deviations from forecasts. The prevailing volatility suggests that implied moves, derived from options data, are forecasting a swing of around 0.5-1% (equivalent to ±30-60 points from current levels), though actual market responses have been known to exceed these expectations in the event of surprises.
In the pre-release phase, spanning overnight to pre-market hours (approximately 4:00-9:30 AM ET), market participants are likely to observe a consolidation or mild upward bias within a range of 6480-6575, building upon today’s record highs. The light trading volume may lead to false breakouts around critical levels. Traders are currently positioning for a "failed breakdown" pattern, wherein an initial dip below recent lows could trigger stop-loss orders, followed by a swift reversal higher if market sentiment remains intact.
As the clock strikes 8:30 AM ET, high volatility is expected, with the potential for a 20-40 point gap open or sharp spike. A common occurrence is an initial downside flush aimed at testing liquidity (for instance, dipping below 6500) before a definitive market direction is established. Whipsaw action is likely as news headlines emerge, with particular focus on the core CPI data, which will be pivotal for determining sustained market trends.
Good Luck Everyone!
Day 27 — Trading Only S&P Futures | 20pt Win & Bottom CatchWelcome to Day 27 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
Started the day red due to overnight trades, but once the session opened, everything lined up perfectly. I waited for resistance after spotting multiple X7 sell signals, shorted the top, and caught a 20-point move down to MOB. From there, I flipped long, and later caught the market bottom with the help of Bia’s analysis.
The result? A smooth +385 day — clean reads, clean execution.
📰 News Highlights
S&P 500, NASDAQ eke out record closing highs after tame PPI inflation data
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6515 = Remain Bullish
Below 6500 = Flip Bearish
ES1! — Analyses (Sep 10) - Key Zones SeyupsHTF remains bullish into a labeled weak‑high cluster. Tomorrow’s path likely pivots around 6523–6527 (ONH/PDH cluster). Two A++ plays only after event‑led volatility prints structure:
Two possibilities:
Continuation LONG on acceptance > 6537 → 6564/6583.
Fade SHORT on sweep into 6542–6548 + 5m and 15m bearish confirmation → 6526/6510/6502.
SMT check with NQ is required.
Continuation LONG (A++) — “Acceptance > 6537”
Sweep → 5m MSS up → 5m close above 6537 → retest 6531–6533 (derived 5m OB/FVG at prior close shelf) for entry.
Entry: 6532 ±1.
SL: 6524 (structure; back inside PDH/ONH cluster).
• TP1: 6564.25 (1H 1.272) → ~+32.3 pts ≈ 4.0R.
• TP2: 6583.50 (1H 1.618) → ~+51.5 pts ≈ 6.4R.
• TP3: 6668+ (4H fib region) — runner; trail by 15m/30m closes.
Management: Scale ½ at TP1; move to BE only after a 5m close through TP1 or new structure; time‑stop 45–60 min if no progress in a kill zone.
Fade SHORT (A++) — “Sweep 6542–6548”
This is counter‑HTF; require 5m MSS down + 15m bearish close before entry (your rule).
Entry: 6545 ±2 after confirmations.
SL: 6552 (above sweep high/5m OB).
• TP1: 6526.25 (PDH/ONH) → ~19 pts ≈ 2.7R.
• TP2: 6510 (derived 15m demand near VWAP band) → ~35 pts ≈ 5.0R.
• TP3: 6502 (ONL=VAL) → ~43 pts ≈ 6.1R.
• TP4: 6489.25 (PDL) → ~56 pts ≈ 8.0R.
Management: Scale ½ at TP1; move to BE only after a 5m close < 6526 and fresh LTF structure; trail above last 5m swing/VWAP.
Fundamentals (tomorrow — Eastern Time)
• 08:30 — PPI (Aug). BLS schedule confirms Sep 10 @ 08:30.
• 10:30 — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status (energy vol shock risk). Standard release Wednesdays 10:30; PDF posts after 1:00 pm.
• 13:00 — UST 10‑yr (reopening). Treasury’s tentative auction schedule shows Wed Sep 10; competitive close customarily 1:00 pm ET.
• Heads‑up (Thu): 08:30 — CPI (Aug) next day.
• FOMC next week: Sep 16–17.
Day 26 — Trading Only S&P Futures | BLS Revision TradeToday’s session lined up perfectly with the news. I came in prepared, knowing the BLS jobs revision was coming, and expected the number to print bigger than forecast.
As the market opened, structure flipped bearish and we started trending down. I shorted resistance levels and traded the 1-min MOB for easy profits once the data came out — which confirmed the trade idea. Ended the day with +300.02.
📰 News Highlights
US 2025 BLS Payrolls revision: -911K jobs, biggest downward revision on record
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6480 = Remain Bullish
Below 6465 = Flip Bearish
This is also one of the first weeks i am testing copytrading apps that allow me to trade 5-10 accounts at once and it just follows the first account.
But I set my other accounts with bigger drawdowns to trade 3x the leader account test test how things work and i have 1 account that locks out after $150s because based on my study, if i lock out after $150, i will have a high success rate for the month.
All of this is only possible after i tested run myself and my strategy where I am trading like a turtle and making sure I can trade for a full month with 70% + win rate and achieve consistency without blowing up the account.
Once that was achieve, I can use any copy trading app to multiple my $200/day trades into 1000 by having all my other account follow my leader account.
But don't rush to do this until you are successful.
Remember to WALK, before you run.