Trump’s Bond Strategy vs. Saylor’s High-Stakes Bitcoin BetBitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) Macro Analysis: Trump’s Bond Strategy vs. Saylor’s High-Stakes Bitcoin Bet
1. Trump’s Bond Play and Crypto Ventures: A Dual Macro Hedge
Since returning to office in January 2025, Donald Trump has purchased over $100 million in corporate and municipal bonds, including debt from Meta, Citigroup, and local governments. These purchases are notable for two reasons:
Yield Lock: Trump’s bond buys were made at yields near 5%, a level not seen since the pre-2022 low-rate era. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected in late 2025, the value of these bonds will rise, and their fixed 5% coupons will become increasingly attractive compared to new, lower-yielding issues.
Policy Alignment: Trump has publicly pressured the Fed to lower rates, which would further inflate the value of his bond portfolio. His administration’s fiscal and trade policies (e.g., tariffs, deregulation) could also indirectly support bond markets by stimulating demand for safe-haven assets.
Trump’s Crypto Ventures: Profiting from the Public
Unlike traditional crypto investors, the Trump family’s involvement in the sector is not built on holding Bitcoin or other digital assets. Instead, their companies focus on selling crypto-related products, cashing in on trading fees, and enriching themselves at the expense of an uninformed public. These ventures have been widely criticized as predatory, leveraging Trump’s political influence and public persona to attract unsuspecting investors into high-fee, low-value schemes—effectively an open scam that prioritizes short-term profits over genuine market participation.
Implications for Bitcoin:
If rates fall, bond yields become less competitive with risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially driving capital back into crypto.
However, Trump’s bond strategy and his family’s exploitative crypto ventures signal a preference for traditional financial instruments and extractive business models over supportive crypto policies. This could temper any positive impact on Bitcoin from his administration’s economic agenda.
2. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy: A Leveraged Bitcoin Bet
MicroStrategy, under Michael Saylor, has become the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with over 446,000 BTC (worth ~$50 billion as of September 2025). The company’s strategy relies heavily on convertible debt issuance:
Debt Structure: MicroStrategy has issued billions in zero- or ultra-low-interest convertible notes (as low as 0.625%), using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. This allows the company to avoid high interest payments and benefit from Bitcoin’s price appreciation.
Risks:
Leverage: If Bitcoin’s price falls sharply, MicroStrategy may face margin calls or be forced to sell BTC to meet debt obligations, exacerbating downward pressure on $BTCUSD.
Equity Dilution: The company’s aggressive stock issuance (planned dilution from 330M to 10B shares) could depress shareholder value if Bitcoin underperforms.
Recent Performance:
MicroStrategy’s stock NASDAQ:MSTR has outperformed Bitcoin in 2024–2025, but its valuation is now highly correlated with BTC’s price and market sentiment toward leverage.
3. Federal Reserve Policy: The Wild Card
Current Rates: The Fed has held rates at 4.25–4.50% since late 2024, but markets anticipate cuts in late 2025 (potentially 0.50–0.75% by year-end).
Impact on Bitcoin:
Rate Cuts: Historically, lower rates boost risk assets. Bitcoin could benefit from increased liquidity and weaker dollar, as seen in late 2024 when BTC rallied following Fed easing.
Inflation & Macro Risks: If cuts are delayed or inflation resurges, Bitcoin may face headwinds as investors favor bonds or cash.
4. The Crypto Winter Thesis: Is Doomsday Coming?
Bull Case: If the Fed cuts aggressively and liquidity floods markets, Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory, especially if institutional demand (e.g., ETF inflows) remains strong.
Bear Case:
MicroStrategy’s Leverage: A sharp BTC drop could force NASDAQ:MSTR to liquidate holdings, triggering a cascade effect.
Regulatory Risks: Trump’s bond focus, his family’s extractive crypto ventures, and potential regulatory crackdowns could dampen sentiment.
Macro Uncertainty: Geopolitical tensions, recession fears, or a stronger-than-expected dollar could further pressure risk assets.
Technical Outlook:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is currently trading at $109,430 (as of September 4, 2025), up 1.63% over the past week but still range-bound between $107K–$112K.
Support/Resistance: Watch $105K (psychological support) and $115K (next resistance). A breakout or breakdown here could signal the next major move.
Conclusion: A Tale of Two Strategies
Trump’s bond purchases and push for rate cuts could indirectly benefit Bitcoin by reducing the appeal of fixed income, but his administration’s stance on crypto, and his family’s history of exploiting the public through crypto ventures, remains a significant red flag. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy’s leveraged Bitcoin bet is a high-risk, high-reward play that could either propel BITSTAMP:BTCUSD to new highs or accelerate a downturn if forced liquidations occur.
Traders should monitor:
Fed meetings (next: September 16–17, 2025) for rate cut signals.
MicroStrategy’s debt maturity schedule and Bitcoin holdings.
Trump’s policy shifts on crypto regulation and fiscal stimulus, as well as any new developments in his family’s crypto-related businesses.
Final Thought: The stage is set for a volatile Q4 2025. While the macro backdrop favors risk assets if the Fed eases, the specter of leverage unwinding, regulatory risks, and the Trump family’s extractive crypto practices looms large. Caution and active risk management are advised.
NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:COIN TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER NASDAQ:MARA BITSTAMP:ETHUSD CRYPTOCAP:USDC NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA
Ethereum (Cryptocurrency)
ETHUSD bullish sideways consolidationThe ETHUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 4,100 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 4,100 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
4,450 – initial resistance
4,730 – psychological and structural level
5,070 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 4,100 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
3,990 – minor support
3,830 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the ETHUSD holds above 4,100. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
ETH/USDT | Hits $4950 ATH After 130% Rally – More Gains Ahead?By analyzing the Ethereum (ETH) chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that, as expected, price has continued its bullish rally since our last analysis — successfully hitting all three targets at $4000, $4400, and $4900. With a remarkable 130% growth in just 77 days, Ethereum finally printed a new ATH at $4950!
Currently, ETH is trading around $4300, and as long as the price holds above the $3330–$3950 support zone, we can expect another strong bullish wave in the near future.
This analysis will be updated — stay tuned for the next move!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
ETH 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 12💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing ETH on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe .
🔭 On the 1H timeframe of Ethereum, we can see that ETH is moving inside a very tight consolidation box along with heavy profit-taking. It has been strongly supported around the $4277 level. As a result, both the top and bottom of this 1H range appear very solid. Ethereum is currently in an accumulation phase, and it could break out of this box with tomorrow’s news. The key levels to watch are exactly the top and bottom of this range.
⛏ On the RSI, the critical zones are around 40 and 70 (Overbought). If price momentum pushes beyond these zones, Ethereum could experience a strong move. Tomorrow’s news is likely to have a significant impact on ETH volatility.
💰 The size, volume, and number of green candles are greater compared to the red ones. This structure indicates a price compression pattern. A taker-seller zone exists around $4480, where more sell orders keep activating. On the other hand, there’s a maker-buyer zone at the bottom of the box that supports ETH whenever price reaches it.
📊 On the 4H timeframe of ETHBTC, the pair is moving inside a descending channel. Each time price touches the channel’s bottom, it finds support. Currently, ETHBTC has formed a V-pattern, and if it breaks the neckline, more Bitcoin could be converted into Ethereum. However, for this breakout to happen, the RSI across the 1H–4H multi-timeframes needs to move into the Overbought zone.
💡 The alarm zones for Ethereum are set at $4272 and $4480. Breaking either of these levels could trigger a strong move. For a long setup, breaking above $4480 requires high volume and strong buying pressure to absorb the sell orders placed there. Tomorrow’s news is extremely important—most of the market is waiting for it. There’s a lot of talk about a potential interest rate cut, which will directly affect Ethereum’s trend. From a technical perspective, strong patterns have already formed, and their breakout will likely align with the NFP news release tomorrow.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
SOL/USDT | Is the Next Bullish Wave Coming? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the Solana (SOL) chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that the bullish momentum is still intact, with the price currently trading around $207. I expect that after a short-term correction, we’ll likely see another bullish wave from Solana.
If the price resumes its upward move, the next potential targets are $218, $245, and $260.
Key demand zones to watch are $197–$204 and $173–$187.
Stay alert for reactions around these levels!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
TON/USDT | TON Gearing Up for a Bullish Wave – Key Targets AheadBy analyzing the TON Coin chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that the price is currently consolidating around the key level of $3.13. This stabilization suggests that a strong bullish wave may be on the horizon.
The potential upside targets for this move are $3.63, $3.75, $4.20, and $4.68.
Keep an eye on this zone — momentum could kick in soon!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Ethereum at $4,382 – Upside or Another Retest of $4,276?My main bias remains more upside. On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum is defending $4,280 support and testing $4,380 resistance. A break and hold above $4,380 opens the path toward $4,580, $4,690, and $4,860. Failure to hold $4,280 would shift focus to $4,150 and $4,100.
Do you also want me to round the prices in the full transcript I wrote earlier, so it matches this simplified style?
BITCOIN - The Corrective Pattern Since 2013 Explained...In this video, I break down Bitcoin’s corrective pattern since 2013 using the AriasWave methodology—rather than Elliott Wave or Bollinger Bands. This marks a significant moment for AriasWave followers, as I apply the method in a more advanced way to decode not only Bitcoin’s structure, but also global markets and, most importantly, Altcoins.
I highlight Altcoins in particular because they appear to hold the greatest potential for explosive growth, largely due to their lagging correlation with Bitcoin. This video is the first in a new analysis series, where I’ll soon take a closer look at Bitcoin’s short-term price action. For now, I wanted to start with this broader perspective, which projects Bitcoin reaching a target range between $276K and $311K.
The target for Ethereum is $69K.
I will explain the target for Thor Chain in an upcoming RUNEUSDT video.
ETHERUM New Analysis | Be Careful (4H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
Considering the lack of price penetration and the formation of higher highs at the first supply zone, Ethereum may have already started its drop without a recovery and could move from the current area toward the $3,700–$3,500 range. So stay alert and manage your risk carefully.
There is still a slight chance of a price rebound to the upside.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Potential bullish reversal?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 4,397.71
1st Support: 4,226.37
1st Resistance: 4,684.31
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TradeCityPro | LDOUSDT The Best Spot Entry Point👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel!
Let's move on to the LDO analysis, which has the most Ethereum possible in this staking network, and its job is to form nodes and structure transactions, and it has solved the problem of having 32 Ethereum to be a validator.
🌐 Overview of Bitcoin
Before starting the analysis, let me remind you again that we moved the Bitcoin analysis section out of this part and made it a separate daily analysis as per your request, so we can discuss Bitcoin’s condition in more detail and analyze its charts and dominance separately.
This is the general Bitcoin dominance analysis that we promised to cover separately and analyze in longer time frames:
🔗
📊 Weekly Timeframe
After the previous decline, LDO reached the important weekly support at 0.647 and showed a reaction.
With buyer presence, the price moved upward and is now sitting right under a resistance that once acted as a strong support. After breaking that level in the past, the price made a sharp move which makes this an important zone to watch.
🔗
📊 Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, after bouncing from the 0.647 support area, LDO built a new structure.
Gradually, this move formed into a parabolic curve where every bounce from it triggered sharp upward movements.
For a spot buy entry, a risky strategy would be to buy on this curve reaction with a wide stop-loss (e.g., 0.8667).
However, I personally prefer waiting for the breakout of 1.5450, since that will allow me to set a tighter stop-loss and manage my capital more effectively, enabling me to take on higher risk within my risk management rules.
📝 Final Thoughts
Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities!
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
ETH/USD: Will ETH Soar to $8,000 or Crash Below $4,000?As of September 3, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $4,466 USD. The market is currently experiencing heightened volatility, influenced by both technical factors and broader macroeconomic developments. Ethereum reached a high of $4,954 in August before retracing to its current levels, suggesting a consolidation phase with key support around $4,200 and resistance near $4,650.
Technically, short-term trends suggest a bullish bias, but caution is advised due to recent fluctuations. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing bearish divergence, indicating potential weakening momentum. A decisive breakout above $4,650 could push ETH toward $5,000, while a drop below $4,200 may lead to retesting the $4,000 support zone.
Investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Anticipation of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in September has increased demand for risk assets like Ethereum. Additionally, the upcoming Fusaka upgrade is expected to enhance Ethereum's scalability and reduce transaction costs, further bolstering its appeal.
In the near term, Ethereum is likely to experience continued volatility. Traders should monitor the $4,200 support and $4,650 resistance levels closely. Looking ahead, Ethereum's long-term prospects remain strong. Analysts project that with sustained institutional interest and successful implementation of scalability upgrades, ETH could reach between $6,000 and $8,000 by the end of 2025.
Despite the optimistic outlook, Ethereum's price remains susceptible to broader market dynamics, including Bitcoin’s performance and macroeconomic factors. Investors should be prepared for potential fluctuations and consider these risks when making investment decisions. Overall, Ethereum’s market is at a pivotal point, and key technical levels and upcoming events will play a crucial role in determining its short-term trajectory.
Ethereum Showing Strength Against BitcoinETH/BTC pair is trading within a long-term triangle pattern. A few months ago, price bottomed out at the triangle support and has since bounced, with the pair now trading around the 0.039 level.
On the monthly timeframe, a bullish MACD crossover has just appeared. This is a strong signal that ETH could start outperforming BTC in the near term. The last time a similar crossover occurred was in June 2020, which was followed by a powerful rally in ETH.
Looking ahead, the next major resistance for ETH/BTC is near the 0.060 level. If bullish momentum continues, price could test this zone in the coming months. This resistance area may also act as the potential peak for ETH in this bull run cycle.
Ethereum 4H Range As we approach nearly a month in the range from $4000-4800 it looks like ETH is making a move once again.
Previously once hitting $4800 price gradually sold off back towards range low creating a bearish trendline, once the price broken above that level a rapid move up to range high within two candles.
Now looking at the chart we have a similar setup, strong breakout from the bearish trendline up into midpoint. Bitcoin currently retesting a key level of $112,000, should BTC flip this level I could see alts getting the greenlight to move up and Ethereum up to the highs.
Should BTC reject from $112,000 it makes sense that ETH range midpoint would be strong resistance, rejection could lead to a range low retest. Anything else that isn't either range high, range low or midpoint is noise and for me no action required, no need to over complicate it.
Ethereum - Eyes 5,600–5,800 After Holding Strong Near HighsEthereum (ETHUSD) remains in a clear uptrend, consolidating just beneath its all-time highs. After printing a record high in recent weeks, ETH has shown strength by holding its gains—a typical behavior in a trending market.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
Trend: Bullish structure intact with higher-highs and higher-lows.
Price Action: ETH is coiling within a key resistance zone (4800–5000)—often a precursor to a breakout.
Momentum: One of the top-performing assets since the April 7 market low.
📈 Targets:
Short-term: 5,600–5,800 zone is the next potential target if the breakout materializes.
Medium-term: Eyes on 7,000, with an extended move to 8,000 still on the table if momentum accelerates.
⚠️ Macro Perspective:
As price moves higher, sentiment and targets naturally expand, fueling further speculative momentum. Caution is warranted—bull markets can persist longer than expected, but parabolic moves often end abruptly.
ETH 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 11💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing ETH on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe .
🔭 On the 1-hour timeframe of Ethereum, we can see that ETH has a similar situation to yesterday. It has an important resistance at $4382, and with a breakout and confirmation above this level, Ethereum could experience a good bullish leg. Keep in mind, according to the data we posted in the channel, yesterday people in the U.S. sold their ETH and bought Bitcoin.
⛏ Two key RSI zones for Ethereum are considered: 58 and 37. Once the oscillation limit crosses these numbers, ETH can start its move.
💰 The volume and the size of green candles in Ethereum have slightly increased, and with more volume and the filling of sell orders at the $4382 resistance, Ethereum could move upward.
🪙💸 On the 1-hour timeframe of the ETHBTC trading pair, we can see that this pair had a resistance at 0.03909, which was successfully broken with higher volume. With a completed pullback and breakout above 0.03939, Ethereum could move upward. Note that this level is directly related to the maker buyers of this pair, and in this timeframe, it’s almost at its bottom.
🔔 Two alarm zones are considered for Ethereum: the $4382 level as our long trade alarm zone, where with a breakout and confirmation above it ETH could move higher; and the $4273 level as the short trade alarm zone, where a breakdown could give us a short position.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .






















