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Falsebreakout

Battle Of Wicks Confirms Pennant On EJ, Which Leg Will Break?!Here on OANDA:EURJPY we can see Price has been volleyed back and forth between a Falling Resistance and Rising Support at similar degrees forming a Pennant Pattern! Currently we can see the Consolidation is getting tight and likely to breakout soon, the question is which leg will break?! Fundamentally EUR and JPY have news events littered throughout this week that will give us some good insight into both currencies corresponding economies, like Tokyo Core CPI y/y on Thursday, Aug. 28th with a Bearish forecast of 2.6%, down from 2.9%! For now, we must wait for Price to give us a Breakout and Retest!
by Novi_Fibonacci
Uh Oh... False Breakouts on both Bitcoin and EthereumWith the close of last week's candlestick COINBASE:ETHUSD failed to sustain its new All Time High (ATH). Last week's price action was interesting because the prior major high at 4070 was solidly broken, retested, and price moved on to make a new ATH. This price action follows Bitcoin COINBASE:BTCUSD last week which also had the same phenomenon; a new ATH that was quickly rejected. There is no more reliable sign of a bearish pullback about to occur than a false breakout. In order for new ATH to be sustained traders and investors must keep buying. If they do not... WATCH OUT! Prior history of the event can be consulted to see just how reliable it can be: January 2025 Bitcoin March 2024 Bitcoin And of course November 2021... the start of the last bear cycle in Bitcoin. Trade wisely!
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by norok
10
USDCAD - price increase after correction. Bullish trendA reversal pattern is forming, indicating the emergence of limit resistance from bears. The pattern structure has been broken, and the price has entered the realization phase. As part of a downward rally, USDCAD may test 0.5 Fibonacci and return to the bullish trend. Scenario: The current aggressive decline may be halted by a strong support zone, which has several confirmations. A false breakdown and consolidation above 1.3831 - 1.3835 will confirm the bullish sentiment and may return the price to retest the resistance at 1.3879.
Long
by AndeWave
6
DXY Consolidates SidewaysTVC:DXY continues to consolidate and be held between a Resistance and Support Between: Resistance @ 98.2 - 98.3 Support @ 97.75 - 97.6 If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Resistance, this will see the USD gain strength temporarily til the Next Resistance Level @ 98.5 - 98.95 If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Support, this will see the USD lose strength temporarily til the Next Support Level @ 97.3 - 97.1 Fundamentally, Tariffs will continue to effect the underlying inflation issue USD deals with along with expectations gaining of not only 1 but a few Interest Cuts could come from the Federal Reserve before the end of the year! This could severely weaken USD!
TVC:DXY
by Novi_Fibonacci
UCAD Bears Ready to Break 2 Month Long Falling Support??OANDA:USDCAD has been supported by a Falling Support Trend line since August 14th and here soon Price could potentially give us a Bearish Break to that Trend line! Once a Breakout is validated, we could look for a Retest Set-Up for some Short Opportunities to take Price down to the Support Zone created by the August and September 2024 Lows. An interesting fact to point out is if you observe the reaction of Price when it tests the Falling Support, we can see Price arc and the following reactions arc smaller, suggesting Bulls are losing strength on the push off of the Falling Support! Price Action is being heavily driven by Fundamentals in the markets this week: -USD- ADP Non-Farm Employment - Previous 60K / Forecast 111K / Actual 37K ISM Services PMI - Previous 51.6 / Forecast 52 / Actual 49.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI - Previous 48.7 / Forecast 49.3 / Actual 48.5 ISM Manufacturing Prices - Previous 69.8 / Forecast 70.2 / Actual 48.5 Unemployment Claims - Previous 239K / Forecast 236K / Actual 247K *Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate are to be released tomorrow -CAD- BOC held Interest Rates @ 2.75% Ivey PMI - Previous 47.9 / Forecast 48.3 / Actual 48.9 *Employment Change and Unemployment are to be released tomorrow With BOC holding Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve possibly looking to cut rates because of a "softening labor market", this could fuel CAD to overcome the pair and put Bears in control to pull Prices lower! www.tradingview.com
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
NZDUSD - growth ended with a false breakout NZDUSD makes a false breakout of resistance after strong growth in the Asian session. The dollar is correcting a bit before the news at this time, which may give a chance for the currency pair to correct Scenario: Strong growth of 2.3% is tempered by a false breakout. The price is not ready to continue rising. Consolidation of the price below 0.60200 may intensify the sell-off and trigger a correction to the support at 0.5969 (0.5)
Short
by AndeWave
23
AU Bulls Make A Break For Higher Prices! Time To Long??OANDA:AUDUSD has practically been caught in an Ascending Channel for most of this year but that might not be for "Long"! A few key things to point out: - Early April delivered a False Breakout where Price reached the Previous 5 Year Low @ .5980 and was immediately sent back up into the Channel! (Liquidity Sweep??) - Most of the Price Action that's occurred in this range has been contained to the Upper Chamber of the Channel between the Rising Resistance and Linear Regression. - Price Consolidated tightly into a Pennant Pattern underneath the Rising Resistance for the past few weeks before delivering a Bullish Break just earlier this evening. If Bulls are able to sustain Price outside the Channel, this could generate potential Long Opportunities on the Retest of the Break of the Ascending Channel! Once a Breakout is validated and Retest is successful, the Price Target would be the Next Swing High @ .66875 where Bears were able to push Price down last. Fundamentally, RBA will be releasing CPI y/y numbers on Tuesday, May 27th with analysts forecasting a .1% Decrease in Inflation from 2.4% to 2.3% after last week having made a 25 basis point rate cut from 4.1% to 3.85%.
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
GBPUSD may correct after false breakout The currency pair has overcome a huge 0.8% or 110 points since the opening of the session, having wasted all the potential and is trying to test the resistance. The potential for breakout and continuation of growth may not be enough and the price may make a false breakout and correction before the second impulse to the intermediate high, where the scenario with correction may be repeated Scenario: Breakout of 1.3402. No possibility to continue growth, return under the level and consolidation below the level - further sales. It is possible that the price will consolidate above 1.34 and will head towards the far, strong level of 1.34425 from which a false breakout and correction can also be considered.
Short
by AndeWave
19
GOLD consolidated below a key level on FridayGold is in a downtrend forming a counter-trend correction. Friday's trading session closes below the key level of 3203-3205. Buyers are weaker than sellers. But, before the continuation of the fall MM is quite likely to test the resistance to provoke ordinary buyers before the fall Scenario: the growth attempt may turn out to be false. A retest of 3203 resistance, a false breakout and price consolidation below 3203 is a sell signal. Additional scenario: MM trap to provoke buyers to buy. A retest of the far resistance 3230, a false breakout and a price fixing below 3223 could start a decline
FX:XAUUSDShort
by AndeWave
3
NAS100USD: Is this a False Break?Greetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe sustained bullish volatility, indicating that the institutional order flow remains decisively bullish. As such, our objective is to align with that momentum and seek opportunities to position ourselves accordingly. Current Market Context: Now entering the New York session, we can anticipate continued upward movement. A key technical development is the recent liquidity sweep—price action took out a set of sell stops, creating the appearance of a potential bearish break of structure. However, this movement aligns with a classic “Turtle Soup” scenario, where a false break is engineered to trap liquidity before the market resumes in its dominant direction. Institutional Insight: This sweep suggests that institutions have likely order paired against willing sellers, using their stops as entry liquidity. With that liquidity now absorbed and price rejecting lower levels, we look for bullish confirmations to join the smart money narrative. Trading Focus: We are now monitoring for lower-timeframe confirmation entries to validate bullish setups, ideally supported by institutional arrays or bullish order blocks that hold as support. Let the market reveal the footprints of smart money—our role is to read and respond with discipline. Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
GOLD → Return to range. Fall from resistance...FX:XAUUSD is reacting to data related to the tariff war. The price is returning to the range and forming a false breakout of resistance. The level of 3370 and the zone of interest at 3387 play a key role. On Thursday, gold rose to $3,400 amid a weaker dollar, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and continued uncertainty due to US trade policy and tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. The Fed left rates unchanged and expressed caution in its assessment of the outlook, which also supports gold's rise. However, in the European session, we are seeing gold react to the trade deal with Britain, most likely due to the easing of tariffs. Now the main focus is on the terms of the deal. We should not forget about China, where the situation remains tense, but everyone is waiting for a resolution. Resistance levels: 3352, 3369, 3385 Support levels: 3319, 3269 The fundamental backdrop changes several times a day. At the moment, the situation is as follows: the rise of the dollar, the weakening of the tariff war, and the hawkish stance of the Fed may put pressure on gold. Therefore, I expect the decline to continue after a retest of 3370-3386. In this case, the target could be 3319. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
35
Bull Trap – The Real Drop May Just Be Starting! (Crash Ahead?)The market appears to be gaining bullish momentum, giving the impression that the bear market is over—but what if it’s just getting started? On this CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL chart, the current price action seems to mirror the 2021–2022 bear market cycle: a rally to new highs, a sharp drop, a deceptive recovery (bull trap), followed by a deeper correction and eventual accumulation. If this pattern plays out again, we could be in the bull trap phase—right before a significant and unexpected drop. What do you think? Will history repeat itself, or are we heading to new highs? Drop your thoughts in the comments! Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by PetrockTheAnalyst
GU Bear Flag Confirmed, Break & Retest Set-UpHere on the 1Hr Chart FX:GBPUSD has formed what seems to be a Continuation Pattern, the Bear Flag! Now, with Price in a decline prior to entering the Consolidation Phase of the Pattern, this suggests that Price will continue further down if this Break is Validated and a Retest is Successful! We will want to see: 1) Strong Breaking Candle that is followed by Accumulation of Bearish Volume!! 2) 10 - 20% of the Range, Past the Break 3) 3 - 5 Closing Candles, Outside of Break, Before Retest This is considered the True or False Formula to determine if its a True Breakout or False Breakout. RSI is Below the 50 in Bearish Territory with room to stretch Oversold strengthening the Bearish bias.
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
APTUSDT → Retest of the liquidity zone. Downward trendBINANCE:APTUSDT.P failed to realize its potential. The price made a false breakout of resistance and formed a reversal pattern. Correction or continuation of the downtrend? Bitcoin is rebounding from resistance. Technically, the market may enter a correction or consolidation. Altcoins are reacting accordingly — correction Within the downtrend but local ALT rally, APT failed to realize its potential and formed liquidity accumulation and a false breakout of the downtrend channel resistance before a possible decline... Resistance levels: 5.2, 5.458 Support levels: 4.76, 4.48, 4.17 A consolidation of the price below the trend resistance or below 5.20 could trigger a continuation of the global and local trends. The coin is likely to remain near the bottom and test new lows... Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
3
EURGBP → False break of liquidity zone (resistance)FX:EURGBP within the distribution (news background) tests resistance 0.84616 and liquidity zone, but without the possibility of continued growth the price forms a false breakout The dollar index falls amid Trump's introduction of new tariffs, which generally provokes a rally in the whole market. But before NFP, the market shifts to profit-taking because of the growing risks. There are quite important news ahead, which may provoke high volatility. Technically, after a strong move, the currency pair forms a false resistance breakout and consolidates in the selling zone. If the bears keep the price below 0.84616, in the short term we should wait for a correction to 0.5 fibo or to the fvg zone. Resistance levels: 0.84600 Support levels: 0.8427, 0.8396 The situation is quite complicated due to unstable background, but technically we have a classic situation with a false breakout of strong resistance, and as we know, according to statistics, the strongest movements start after it (in relation to the trade of level breakout). Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
7
CAKEUSDT → False breakout of resistance. Return to the trendBINANCE:CAKEUSDT is forming a false breakdown of key resistance as part of a bullish rally. Further altcoin decline may be influenced by bitcoin's decline, the flagship looks rather weak Technically, the move in Cake looks like a counter-trend maneuver to gather liquidity before a further, possible fall. The altcoin market is weak and most coins continue to look for a bottom, while bitcoin is consolidating but with a hint of a decline to 91-90K. CAKEUSDT is focusing on 2.6144 - 2.7288. If the bears keep the price below these zones, the coin could head down in the short to medium term Resistance levels: 2.6144, 2.7288, 2.2964 Support levels: 2.420, 2.0634 Statistically, a false breakdown provokes the strongest movements, often even trend changes. In this case, it is a counter-trend movement and if the price reverses locally, the coin will be under the pressure of the trend again. A price fixing below 2.6144 may strengthen the fall to 2.42, 2.06, 1.04. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
11
USDJPY → False break of support gives bulls a chanceFX:USDJPY bumps into support and forms a false breakdown of the lower boundary of the local trend. The dollar is strengthening at this time, which may give a chance for growth of the currency pair. The price stops in the zone of strong support, the fundamental background has been unstable lately and depends more on the USA. Everyone has long forgotten about the growth of interest rates in Japan and follows the economic data from the West. Technically, there are two triggers on the chart, one to buy and one to sell, but since the global and local trend is upward, the preference is to buy. If the currency pair is able to consolidate above 151.9 - 151.95, then in the short and medium term we should expect growth to the targets indicated on the chart. Resistance levels: 151.94, 153.7, 153.97 Support levels: 150.95, 149.52 But, if the dollar continues the correction and the bulls fail to realize the false support breakdown, the price return to 150.95 may provoke the support breakout and fall to 148.64. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
24
As Goes January So Goes the YearI have written and talked about this statistical superstition born out of trading almanacs of the "January Effect" which proposes that the month of January's direction (a green bar or a red bar) will determine the final close of the year as a whole. I plugged the data into a spreadsheet this year mid-January to get the updated statistic and for the last 97 years this adage has held true 68% of the time. Like all statistics when studying markets "nothing is 100%" but it is safe to say "more often than not" this is true. The January 2025 Monthly open is -3.03% from the Friday close... SPY is going to open -2.19% as of writing this morning. We still have a whole week of trading days left in January to see how 2025 will MOST PROBABLY play out. There's a lot of "reasons" talk this morning about some Chinese AI being the culprit of the selloff. I never take heed of the need for the media to publish digestible stories to give such reasons: they are never tradable prior to the event they claim and each is a one-off so knowing the "reason" (if even true) is totally worthless for making money. The more logical answer according to price which is far more actionable to traders is the failed breakout last Friday. While SPY made a new All Time High the Weekly itself failed to close to confirm it. Not following through on such a move is a clear bearish signal going into a weekend. Now THAT is a much better "reason" to be focused on this week (and every time it happens in the future).
AMEX:SPY
by norok
3
Analyzing BAJFINANCE: A Simple BreakdownOverview The price action around the ₹7,440 resistance level tells an interesting story. Initially, the price broke above this key level with increased trading activity (volume), signaling strong buying interest. However, it couldn’t stay above ₹7,440 for long and fell back below the resistance in the following sessions. Despite this, the selling pressure was weak, as shown by the lower trading activity during the drop. This suggests that sellers weren’t very aggressive. Signs of Buyer Strength One important observation in the circled area is that the price has been forming higher lows. This means buyers are stepping in at slightly higher levels each time, showing they are still interested. The latest green candle, which has a noticeable increase in volume, further supports this idea. It indicates that buyers are regaining control and may attempt to push the price higher. Was It a Failed Breakout or a Retest? While the first attempt to break ₹7,440 failed, the price hasn’t fallen much. Instead, it seems to be consolidating in a range, with strong buyer support around ₹7,200–₹7,300. This could mean the price is preparing for another breakout attempt, making this a potential retest phase rather than a complete failure. What to Watch for Next The next big signal will come if the price closes above ₹7,440 with strong trading activity. This would confirm a successful breakout and could lead to further upward movement. Until then, traders might want to wait for clear confirmation to avoid getting caught in a false signal. Study The circled area highlights a battle between buyers and sellers. While the initial breakout failed, the price has shown resilience by holding above key support levels. If buyers continue to gain strength and push the price above ₹7,440, we could see a bullish trend emerge. Until that happens, patience is key.
NSE:BAJFINANCE
by ruelfernandes