Forex
XAUUSD: Bearish Drop to 4360?As the previous analysis worked exactly as predicted, OANDA:XAUUSD is eyeing a bearish reversal on the 4-hour chart , with price testing a key resistance zone near recent highs, converging with a downward trendline touch and a potential entry area that could trigger downside momentum if sellers defend against further upside. This setup suggests a pullback opportunity amid the ongoing rally, targeting lower support levels with approximately 1:5.5 risk-reward .🔥
Entry between 4900–4950 for a short position (entry from current price with proper risk management is recommended)🎯. Target at 4360 . Set a stop loss at a daily close above 5000 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:5.5 . Monitor for confirmation via a bearish candle close below entry with rising volume, leveraging gold's volatility near highs.🌟
Fundamentally , gold is trading around $4,933 in early February 2026, with key US Dollar events this week potentially strengthening USD if data beats expectations, pressuring gold lower. On February 3 at 10:00 AM ET, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December is due, where stronger figures could bolster USD amid labor resilience. February 4 at 8:15 AM ET brings ADP Employment Change (Jan, forecast 41K), signaling private hiring trends. February 6 at 8:30 AM ET features the Employment Report (Jan, forecast 50K Non-Farm Payrolls, 4.4% Unemployment Rate), the week's highlight—robust data could favor USD strength. 💡
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry (Short):
4900 – 4950
(Entry from current price is valid with proper risk & position sizing.)
🎯 Target:
• 4360
❌ Stop Loss:
• Daily close above 5000
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward:
• ~ 1:5.5
💡 Your view?
Is this the start of a deeper correction toward 4360, or will gold break above 5000 and continue its parabolic run? 👇
Manipulation: Trading the Pullback Into Institutional ImbalanceH1 Long Setup
At the time of analysis, the H1 price is trading at 77,350.95, following a clear bullish impulse on the hourly chart. Rather than chasing strength, the higher-probability play is to wait for a controlled retracement into a zone where institutional activity is already confirmed. This plan focuses on entering long on a pullback into a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) that aligns with an order block and a structure retest, allowing risk to be defined tightly while targeting continuation.
Market Structure & Bias (H1)
The hourly structure shows a textbook bullish Break of Structure (BOS), followed by a measured pullback. Prior to the impulse, price swept liquidity below a minor swing low, a classic Smart Money Concepts (SMC) signature. The subsequent displacement created an imbalance, confirming institutional participation rather than random retail momentum.
SMC logic therefore supports a continuation long, provided price returns to the imbalance in an orderly manner. Any signs of distribution, failed BOS, or aggressive bearish expansion into the zone would invalidate this bias.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Analysis
The H1 FVG sits between 76,830 and 77,050, formed by a strong three-candle bullish impulse with a large-bodied middle candle and minimal wicks. The AI-optimized FVG indicator flags this zone as:
Bullish
Unmitigated
Recent and high priority (H1 timeframe)
Because of this, the preferred execution is at the upper boundary of the FVG:
Entry: 77,050.00
If the FVG is fully mitigated before price reaches the entry, the setup is cancelled. No exceptions.
Order Block Confluence
Order Block Detection identifies a bullish order block inside the FVG, roughly 76,900–77,050. This block was created by an absorption candle immediately followed by strong bullish continuation, a sign of active accumulation.
This confluence tightens execution rules:
Entry is only valid on a bullish rejection from the FVG/order block area.
If price trades into the zone but fails to print a convincing rejection candle (engulfing, hammer, or strong close off lows), there is no entry and no scaling.
The overlap of FVG + order block significantly increases the probability that this zone acts as defended support.
Momentum & Trend Filters
RSI (H1):
RSI is holding in the mid-60s, signaling bullish momentum without overbought conditions. This supports continuation after a pullback rather than exhaustion. Bearish RSI divergence on the retest would be a clear reason to abort the trade.
Moving Averages (H1):
Price is trading above the 50-EMA (~76,800), and the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA, confirming a bullish hourly trend. Notably, the 50-EMA aligns closely with the lower edge of the FVG, reinforcing it as dynamic support and justifying the stop placement below the zone.
MACD (H1):
MACD recently printed a bullish crossover with expanding positive histogram during the impulse that formed the FVG. Ideal entry conditions include a stable or re-accelerating histogram on the rejection candle. A fresh bearish MACD cross during the retest invalidates the setup.
Volume Context
Hourly volume (~422.8) expanded during the bullish impulse that created the FVG, suggesting institutional participation. On the retrace, volume should contract, showing reduced selling pressure. A valid entry requires volume expansion on the bullish rejection from the FVG. Weak or absent volume on rejection reduces conviction and calls for skipping the trade or reducing size.
Support, Resistance & Targets
Support / Entry Zone: 76,830–77,050 (FVG + order block confluence)
Immediate Resistance: 78,150–78,500
Higher Resistance: 78,900–79,950
Targets are aligned with opposing structure and imbalances, scaled to H1 volatility.
Trade Plan (H1)
Entry: 77,050.00 (buy limit or enter on bullish rejection inside the FVG/order block)
Stop Loss: 76,228.00 (beyond FVG/order block, ~1.07% below entry)
Risk per Contract: 822.00 USD
Take Profits:
TP1 (Exit): 78,283.00 — 1.5R (conservative primary objective)
TP2: 78,950.00 — next H1 structure
TP3: 79,900.00 — extended target at the next imbalance
Execution Rules:
Wait for a clear bullish rejection candle inside 76,830–77,050.
Confirm Order Block Detection and SMC remain bullish at entry.
MACD histogram should be stable or turning positive.
Cancel the trade if the FVG is fully mitigated beforehand or if rejection occurs on strong bearish volume.
Risk & News Considerations
Risk per trade is defined and controlled (~1.07% of entry price), with a 1:1.5 primary reward to maintain discipline. No major macro or crypto-specific events are listed in the next 72 hours, so this setup is driven purely by technical confluence. Any unexpected high-impact exchange or regulatory headlines should pause execution until volatility stabilizes.
Final Summary
This H1 setup presents a high-quality continuation long built on aligned Fair Value Gap, order block, and Smart Money Concepts signals. A patient entry at 77,050, protected by a well-defined stop at 76,228, and staged targets at 78,283 / 78,950 / 79,900 offers a structured, volatility-aware trade plan. Discipline is key: wait for confirmation, respect invalidation rules, and let the market come to the zone.
USDJPY Will Move Lower! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 155.811.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 154.107 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
GOLD Is Bearish! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 4,917.56.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 4,542.51 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USOIL BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG
Hello, Friends!
Bullish trend on USOIL, defined by the green colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is oversold based on the BB lower band proximity, makes me expect a bullish rebound from the support line below and a retest of the local target above at 65.48.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBPNZD - Two Magnets, Two Clear JobsGBPNZD is trading between two zones that keep acting like magnets:
On the upside, the red structure has been attracting price again and again. Every time price reaches that area, sellers show up. As long as that structure holds, that’s where I’ll be looking for shorts.📉
On the downside , the blue demand zone keeps pulling price back in. That’s where buyers previously stepped in with strength. As price approaches that zone, I’ll be looking for longs.📈
For now, we wait!⏱️
Which magnet do you think price hits next? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
GBPUSD: Growth & Bullish Forecast
Looking at the chart of GBPUSD right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move up seems to be quite likely.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GOLD: Trading Signal From Our Team
GOLD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short GOLD
Entry Point - 4928.5
Stop Loss - 4984.2
Take Profit - 4827.3
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
EURUSD Will Explode! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1795
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.1868
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURJPY What Next? SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURJPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 183.92
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 183.65
My Stop Loss - 184.10
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBP/USD Chart Pattern..Overall downtrend (descending trendline respected)
Price reacted from a demand zone (yellow box)
Now attempting a trendline break / pullback
Ichimoku cloud still acting as dynamic resistance
This looks like a corrective move up, not full trend reversal yet.
🎯 Targets (Buy-from-demand → correction)
✅ Upside Targets (if holding buy)
🎯 Target 1 (TP1):
1.3775 – 1.3785
Previous structure + minor resistance
Good partial profit zone
🎯 Target 2 (TP2):
1.3830 – 1.3845
Major resistance / trendline retest
Matches My drawn “Target Point”
👉 I would book most profits here
❌ Invalidation / Risk Area
If price breaks and closes below 1.3640
Demand fails → continuation down likely
🔄 Alternative Scenario (If rejection happens)
If price rejects strongly from:
1.3780 or
1.3830
Then downside targets reopen:
1.3680
1.3640 (demand retest)
📌 Quick Summary
Bias: Pullback bullish, overall trend still bearish
Main Target: 1.3780
Extended Target: 1.3835
Trend traders: sell near upper target
Scalpers: partial at TP1, trail rest
Pennant Breaks Bullish on AJOANDA:AUDJPY has made quite a clear Pennant pattern and last night, price delivered a Breakout of the pattern determining it a Bullish Pennant!
Currently price seems to have exhausted itself after the Breakout creating a Higher High then the High starting the pattern sending a strong message that Buyers aren't done yet and we can look for price to continue pushing higher.
Before that happens, the Breakout must stabilize itself with a Retest of the Falling Resistance it made the Breakout of.
If successful, the Retest should generate Long opportunities!
Fundamentally, AUD found quite a bit of strength after:
1) RBA Hiked rates by 25 bps to 3.85% ( First Hike in 2 years)
2) It was suggested that more Rate Hikes could be down the line with markets pricing in around an 80% chance the RBA Hikes Rates to 4.1% at the May meeting.
www.tradingview.com
Weakness in the Yen is partially due to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting the export industries could find opportunities with a weaker currency and looking to pursue "expansionary fiscal policies."
www.tradingview.com
EURUSD Short: Rally Stalls at Supply - Key Reaction Near 1.1800Hello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of EURUSD (1H) based on the current chart structure. EURUSD has recently completed a notable structural shift after trading within a well-defined descending channel. During this phase, price consistently respected the falling resistance and printed lower highs and lower lows, confirming short-term bearish control. This bearish structure eventually reached a key pivot low, where selling pressure weakened and buyers began to step in. From this pivot point, EURUSD broke out of the descending channel, signaling the end of the corrective phase and the start of a bullish recovery.
Currently, EURUSD is pulling back from the supply area along the descending supply line, indicating a corrective retracement rather than a full trend reversal. Below the current price, the Demand Zone near 1.1800 stands out as a key level. This zone represents previous resistance turned support and aligns with the base of the impulsive move, making it a critical area for buyers to defend.
My primary scenario favors a pullback toward the 1.1800 Demand Zone while price remains below the descending supply line and the 1.1880–1.1900 Supply Zone. A controlled retracement into demand could provide a healthy correction within the broader bullish recovery structure, potentially setting the stage for another upside attempt. However, a strong rejection from the supply line followed by a clean breakdown and acceptance below 1.1800 would invalidate the bullish recovery scenario and signal a return to bearish pressure. Conversely, a decisive breakout and acceptance above the 1.1900 Supply Zone would confirm bullish continuation and open the door for further upside expansion. For now, EURUSD is at a key decision point, and patience is required as price reacts between supply and demand. Manage your risk!
AUDJPY Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
AUDJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 109.05 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 107.35
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XAU I'M BACKHi, I’m Maicol, an Italian trader specialized in Gold since 2019.
I need your support.
Leave a like and follow me.
It’s a small gesture for you, but very important for my work.
Today live at 15:00 CET (Rome time).
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
Gold Bias: Cautiously Bullish, with Elevated Volatility
Gold remains cautiously bullish.
Key drivers are renewed US government shutdown risk, delayed macro releases—especially labour data—and high policy uncertainty. These factors historically support safe-haven demand.
Upside, however, is not linear. Positioning is crowded and gold can still be used as a liquidity source if equities or crypto experience further stress.
As long as price holds above key structural supports, dips are more likely to be bought than sold. Headline risk and funding pressures keep volatility elevated.
US Government Shutdown and Gold
During the 2025 US government shutdown, gold strongly outperformed and pushed to record highs. Markets repriced political dysfunction, delayed macro data, and rising tail risks.
The key point:
With labour and inflation data postponed, rate expectations became less anchored, driving flows into hard assets such as gold.
US Labour Data
The January employment report (NFP and Employment Situation) may not be released as scheduled.
Reason:
The US federal government is in a partial shutdown after Congress failed to pass final funding legislation. Government funding lapsed at the end of January 2026.
Trump Era Market Environment
The Trump administration continues to create a high-volatility environment. Markets face repeated shocks, including trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, government shutdowns, and sharp boom-bust cycles.
Volatility remains structural rather than temporary.
Trump to Ease Tariffs on India
President Trump announced plans to cut tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%.
According to the White House, the move is linked to India’s reported commitments to halt Russian oil purchases, eliminate import tariffs on US goods, and increase purchases of American products by $500 billion.
Additional points:
India became a major buyer of discounted Russian oil after 2022
The additional 25% levy tied to Russian oil purchases will be removed
India’s tariff rate would move closer to levels applied to the EU and Japan
The decision comes as the US seeks progress on Ukraine-related negotiations
India recently finalized a major free-trade agreement with the European Union
Conclusion
Whether India materially reduces Russian oil imports—and how Russia, the EU, and China respond—will determine whether this marks a durable reset in US-India economic and geopolitical relations or a temporary tactical move.
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🔍 NEXT APPOINTMENTS 🔍
As usual, live at 14:00/15:00
to follow the market in real time.
🔍 REMINDER 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
I focus on news at 14:30 IT time
and New York open at 15:30 IT time
Have a great day.
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USOIL Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for USOIL is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 65.73
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 65.04
My Stop Loss - 66.14
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURCAD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURCAD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.6121
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.6151
Safe Stop Loss - 1.6102
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDCAD Prints a Bullish Wick off the January 2026 LowsFrom a technical perspective, extended lower shadows reflect rejected downside levels — in other words, bullish dominance over bearish pressure. The weekly timeframe adds further weight to this signal, especially when aligned with the recent surge in US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
For DXY, my framework maintains:
A bearish bias following a confirmed weekly close below the 96 level
A bullish bias only if price holds cleanly above 98, 99.50, and the key 100.40 level
Against this backdrop, the following scenarios emerge for USDCAD.
USDCAD briefly dropped toward levels last seen in 2024 near 1.3480 before recovering above the 1.36 mark. Applying Fibonacci extensions from the September 2024 low, February 2025 high, and January 2026 low, key upside levels emerge at 1.3860, 1.40, and 1.4150 — zones that would help confirm the sustainability of the rebound before another potential acceleration higher.
On the downside, the 1.3580–1.3420 support zone remains critical. A failure to hold this area could expose the pair to a deeper structural breakdown toward the 1.33 and 1.30 levels.
Overall, bullish and bearish scenarios for USDJPY and USDCAD are expected to move in tandem with DXY, as the index continues to test its long-term 2008–2026 trend support.
- Razan Hilal
GBPCHF: Supply Zone Breakout 🇬🇧🇨🇭
GBPCHF broke and closed above a key daily supply cluster.
A breakout occurred with a high momentum bullish candle.
We see a retest of a broken structure now.
With a high probability, the pair will resume growing
and reach 1.0682 level then.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
EUR/USD successfully broke above the key resistance zone and the descending trendline, extending its bullish move toward the 1.1200 area. From this level, the pair entered a corrective phase.
This pullback is considered a healthy correction and a pullback to the previously broken resistance, which now acts as support. As long as price holds above this zone, we expect buyers to step back in and push the pair toward higher levels.
Overall outlook remains bullish, and the current correction could offer a favorable opportunity for trend continuation.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
AUD/USD | IFVG Retest (READ THE CAPTION)As you can see in the hourly chart of AUDUSD, after today's open, it soared the skies and hit the IFVG High at 0.7043 and reached 0.7050 before dropping and closing in the IFVG zone and then afterwards, dropping lower, going outside the IFVG zone and now it's being traded at 0.7031. I expect AUD to retest the IFVG above it again, if it fails the targets are: 0.7026, 0.7019, 0.7012 and 0.7005.
If it manages to go through, the targets are: 0.7038, 0.7045, 0.7052 and 0.7059.
AUD/USD Rises Following RBA DecisionAUD/USD Rises Following RBA Decision
As the AUD/USD chart shows, the Australian dollar is holding above the psychological 0.700 level today after a bullish impulse triggered by the market’s reaction to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to raise the Cash Rate from 3.60% to 3.85%.
According to RBA Governor Michele Bullock, inflation (3.8%) remains too high, and the Bank “cannot allow it to get out of control again”. At the same time, the possibility of another rate hike in May has been left open.
The prospect of a tighter monetary policy stance should support the Australian dollar. However, the key question is whether AUD/USD can extend its advance and break above the important A peak from 29 January — the pair’s highest level since February 2023.
Technical Analysis of the AUD/USD Chart
Volatile price action in January has formed a broad ascending channel originating in November 2025. Within this structure:
→ bullish momentum accelerated on 19 January following a break above local resistance (shown in red);
→ the A peak confirmed the upper boundary of the channel as resistance;
→ the median (shown in blue) continues to act as support for the rising market.
It is worth noting that the ATR indicator is at its highest level in around nine months. This may point to increased activity by “smart money”, while the aggressive bearish rejection from the upper boundary could hint at their intentions.
As a result, the current rise in AUD/USD appears to be an initial emotional response to the news. There is a risk that the momentum may fade as the price approaches the highs near the A peak, where “smart money” could resume selling.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.






















