Bearish reversal off key resistance?AUD/CHF is rising towards the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.5453
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 0.54786
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance level.
Take profit: 0.54106
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Forex
Live trade: GBP USD long There is no major catalyst but Friday's positive mood continues, the S&P is steady and the USD is currently bearing the brunt of the mildly positive environment, the DXY is falling.
I've chosen to jump on the USD weakness. Similar to Friday's trade, I've opted for GBP long as I feel the chart has room up to 4hr resistance.
The risk to the trade is USD strength, possibly from upcoming FED speakers. Or if the JPY turns out to be the better short option.
It's a 30 pip stop loss with 45 pip profit target, I will leave the trade on until completion, for better or worse.
CADCHF Reverses After New 3-Month LowOn Tuesday, January 27th, OANDA:CADCHF created a new 3-Month Low @ .55975
Price Action since then has formed a strong potential Bullish Reversal pattern, the Inverse Head and Shoulders!
Wednesday, January 28th, price formed a Higher Low @ .5650 and today we can see price is back up at the "Neckline" or Resistance that helped from the pattern.
If price is able to make a Successful Breakout and Retest of the "Neckline", this Inverse Head and Shoulders could generate Long opportunities to take price to the next Resistance Level around .5745 - .5750.
Fundamentally, CAD has GDP releasing Friday, January 30th with Bullish forecasts from analysts which could strengthen CAD and aid the Bullish bias.
GOLD: Short Trade Explained
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 5039.1
Stop - 5052.8
Take - 5016.5
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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AUD-NZD Strong Bullish Continuation! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AUDNZD is holding above a key demand zone after liquidity sweep. Strong BOS and bullish order block suggest continuation toward buy-side liquidity. Time Frame 4H.
Buy!
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GBPUSD Will Go Lower! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.365.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.349.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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GBPCAD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPCAD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.868.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.854 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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EURNZD Will Go Higher! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for EURNZD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 1.958.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 1.975 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GBP/NZD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
GBP/NZD is making a bullish rebound on the 4H TF and is nearing the resistance line above while we are generally bearish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following short a good option for us with the target being the 2.259 level.
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GOLD (XAUUSD) — Multi-Level Breakout Structure 📝 DESCRIPTION
Gold is currently trading inside a strong bullish market structure after completing a deep correction and successful recovery from major support. Price has reclaimed key breakout levels and is now stabilizing above the mid-range demand zone, signaling potential continuation toward higher targets.
The chart shows multiple confirmed breakout zones where price previously consolidated before impulsive moves. These zones are now acting as support and continuation areas, indicating strong institutional demand.
After the sharp rejection from the recent high, gold found support above the major demand region and is building momentum again. As long as price holds above the 4890–4900 support zone, buyers remain in control and the market may push toward upper resistance targets.
Key Market Structure:
Major Support: 4413
Strong Demand Zone: 4749 – 4890
Current Holding Zone: Above 4900
Upside Targets: 5300 → 5450 → 5650
A sustained move above the recent consolidation confirms bullish continuation toward the marked target zones. However, a breakdown below 4890 would weaken short-term momentum and could trigger another corrective move before continuation.
Overall bias remains bullish while price holds above key support and breakout levels.
#054: USD/SGD Short Investment Opportunity
The USD/SGD pair is currently going through a delicate transition phase after a volatile start to the week, a not uncommon behavior for Asian currencies as liquidity normalizes at the start of the session.
After the weekly open, price action initially showed sharp and erratic movements, largely due to low liquidity, temporary spread widening, and technical rebalancing by market makers. As liquidity gradually returned, volatility began to decline, allowing the market to re-establish a more orderly structure.
From a longer-term perspective, the recent retracement appears to be corrective rather than impulsive. The price remains confined within a well-defined consolidation zone, suggesting that the recent downside pressure does not exhibit the characteristics of sustained institutional selling. Specifically, attempted declines so far have failed to generate a continuation, while volatility has been gradually absorbed rather than amplified.
This type of behavior is often associated with price acceptance rather than distribution. In similar historical contexts, the market has tended to stabilize before attempting a directional move aligned with broader structural dynamics.
Another key element to consider is timing. Early-week price action, especially during the Asian session, often produces misleading signals. Professional flows typically emerge only after liquidity conditions normalize, when spreads tighten and execution becomes more efficient. The lack of aggressive follow-through during initial fluctuations reinforces the idea that the market is still in a preparatory phase.
From a macro-technical perspective, the current environment suggests that bearish momentum is losing steam, while buyers appear increasingly selective and patient. This sets the stage for a potential structured reaction, provided the market continues to respect its consolidation limits and volatility remains contained.
Gold (XAU/USD) using a combination of key technical levelsThis chart analysis is focused on trading Gold (XAU/USD) using a combination of key technical levels and a specific entry, stop loss, and target strategy. Let’s break down the key components and ideas from the chart:
1. Price Structure and Trend:
The chart shows an overall sideways movement or consolidation pattern, with price moving within a certain range. It appears to be in a pullback after a prior upward move, with a possible bullish reversal expected from this point.
The purple curved line suggests the trader expects the price to rebound and move upwards, based on the price pattern and technical analysis.
2. Entry Point:
The entry point is marked at approximately 4,964.30, where the price is expected to start moving up. This level is significant because the price appears to be at a support zone (highlighted in green), and traders are looking for a buy position at this point, anticipating a breakout or reversal to the upside.
3. Target Level:
The target is identified around 5,080.00 (blue zone), where the trader expects the price to go if the trend continues upwards. This level is set with the idea of capturing potential profits if the price reaches or exceeds it.
The target area is likely determined based on resistance or past price highs, where the price has previously struggled to push higher.
4. Stop Loss:
The stop loss is placed around 4,840.00 (red zone). The stop loss is designed to limit potential losses if the price moves in the opposite direction of the trade (downwards).
The stop loss level appears to be just below a key support zone, ensuring that if the price falls below this level, it would signal that the bearish trend may continue, invalidating the trade idea.
5. Risk/Reward Setup:
The setup shows a favorable risk/reward ratio. The price has a chance to move up to the target (5,080.00) while limiting potential losses if the price falls to the stop loss (4,840.00).
If the trade is successful, the potential profit could significantly outweigh the potential loss, which is ideal for risk management.
6. Technical Indicators and Price Action:
The price action suggests that the market may be forming a double bottom pattern or similar reversal pattern near the entry point, signaling a potential shift to an uptrend.
The chart has a bullish bias, as indicated by the trader's setup for a long position and the price potentially breaking above resistance levels.
7. Conclusion/Trade Idea:
Buy near 4,964.30 (Entry Point) if the price shows signs of reversal or breaking through resistance.
Set a stop loss around 4,840.00 to manage risk.
The target is set at 5,080.00, expecting the price to reach this level if the bullish trend continues.
This setup relies on the idea that the market is in a bullish reversal phase, and the trader aims to profit from an upward movement.
This trading strategy focuses on technical analysis (support, resistance, price action) and aims to capitalize on the reversal after a pullback. The trader is positioning for a possible breakout and looking to manage risk using a well-placed stop loss.
ADAUSDT (2H CHART PATTERN) (Bullish)...ADAUSDT (2H CHART PATTERN) (Bullish).
Buy / holding zone:
0.268 – 0.275
Target 1 (near resistance):
0.300 – 0.305
(first supply zone / MY lower target)
Target 2 (main target):
0.330 – 0.335
(major resistance / trend continuation target)
Extended target (only with strong market momentum):
0.350 – 0.360
🛑 Invalidation / Stop idea
Below 0.255 A clean close below this level puts price back under cloud → bullish idea weak.
Bias summary
Above 0.265 → Buy on dips
Break & hold above 0.305 → Fast move toward 0.33+
Below 0.255 → Reassess
XAUUSD Breakout Confirmed — Is Gold Preparing for a Major Rally?📊 Market Structure
Gold has successfully broken above a descending trendline, signaling a potential shift in short-term market structure from bearish to bullish.
After the breakout, price formed strong higher lows — suggesting buyers are stepping in with momentum.
---
🧠 What I’m Watching
Price is now approaching a key resistance zone near 5,040.
A clean break and hold above this level could open the door for the next bullish expansion.
As long as gold remains supported above the demand zone, the path of least resistance appears to be upward.
---
🔑 Key Levels
Demand Zone: 4,920 – 4,960
Resistance: 5,040
✅ Bullish Bias: While price holds above demand
❌ Invalidation: Sustained move below 4,920 may weaken bullish momentum
---
🚀 Trade Idea
Breakout + structure shift often leads to continuation phases.
If buyers maintain control, gold could begin its next leg higher in the coming sessions.
---
⚠️ Risk Note
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always use proper risk management.
---
Do you see gold breaking this resistance — or forming a rejection?
Bullish or bearish from here? Comment below!
USDCHF H4 | Heading Towards 61.8% Fib ResistanceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to our sell entry level at 0.7863, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our stop loss is set at 0.7960, which is an overlap resistance that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 0.7693, whichis a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
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GOLD 09/02 – H4 ROUTE MAP | SMC STRUCTURE CONTEXTGold prices are recovering from a low balance zone after a strong sell-off at the beginning of the month. However, this is not yet a confirmation of a return to an uptrend, but rather a revaluation process in a broken structure. The current H4 is in a decisive zone: recovering to continue the decline or having enough strength to reclaim the old structure.
MACRO CONTEXT – WHAT IS THE CASH FLOW THINKING?
The USD maintains its strength thanks to stable US economic data and expectations that the Fed will not rush to ease.
US bond yields remain high → continue to pressure gold in the medium term.
Geopolitical risks still exist, but cash flow has not returned to safe havens, indicating that the market prioritizes cash flow and yields over defense.
➡️ Result:
Gold has a technical rebound, but there is no strong enough catalyst to reverse the H4 trend.
H4 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – WHAT THE MARKET IS DOING
The previous uptrend has been broken (CHoCH down).
The current recovery is just a pullback in the down structure.
Prices are operating between Fibonacci + FVG, where the market often "reveals its hand."
ROUTE MAP – KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
🔴 UPPER ZONE – SELL REACTION / RESISTANCE
5050 – 5100
Fib 0.618
Technical recovery zone in the down structure
→ If prices reach this zone but are not accepted, the recovery is likely to end.
5220 – 5300
FVG H4 + Fib 0.786
→ Only when holding above this zone will the bearish H4 scenario be invalidated.
🟢 LOWER ZONE – BUY REACTION / SUPPORT
4920 – 4950
Fib 0.5 + FVG
→ Balance zone, likely to see two-way reactions – prioritize observing price reactions.
4800 – 4850
Fib 0.382 + demand H4
→ Important support zone if selling pressure returns.
4600 – 4400
Liquidity low
→ Only activated if the down structure expands.
HOW LUCASGRAY VIEWS THE CURRENT MARKET
News creates short-term volatility,
But the H4 structure is what determines the direction.
We do not chase prices.
We wait for the market to react at high confluence zones to distinguish:
technical recovery rhythm (intraday scalp)
or acceptance of the structure for the next swing.
The most beautiful upward rhythms are often where the market "traps emotions."
The truth always lies in the price zone that the market dares to hold or not.
Upcoming updates will focus on actual price reactions at marked zones.
Follow to not miss scalp zones and important structure pivot points this week.
— LucasGrayTrading
USDJPY 1h | Cyclical Compression Within Rising StructurePrice continues to advance within a rising channel while exhibiting a recurring intraday cycle of approximately 44 bars. Prior cycle troughs have aligned with local pullbacks, followed by resumed expansion toward the upper boundary of structure.
Recent price action shows compression near the upper channel region, with momentum oscillating rather than accelerating. This reflects phase deceleration rather than trend failure.
The projected path illustrates potential structural oscillation if cycle rhythm persists, not a directional forecast.
This chart documents observed recurrence, phase interaction, and structural containment.
Time governs opportunity.
Price responds conditionally.
FOREX: Weekly Review A tech sell off dominated the headlines during the week starting Monday 2 February. Not long ago I was celebrating the fact earnings season was slipping under the radar, that came to a halt as Microsoft's AI spending came under scrutiny, the theme continued this week with Amazon and Alphabet, the theory being companies are spending so much that it's going to take longer than previously thought to see any AI related returns, denting market sentiment. The NASDAQ fell, taking the S&P and the DOW with it, US yields also dropped in an old fashioned stocks down, yields down = risk off environment.
The USD appeared to be the main beneficiary, despite its own slightly soft data as sentiment for the JPY remained subdued, intervention chatter waned and the governments fiscal outlook undermines potential BOJ rate hikes. It will be interesting to see how the yen reacts to the outcome of the election.
In other news, the ECB passed by uneventfully but we did get some interest rate speculation moves from the AUD and GBP. The RBA rate hike with hawkish rhetoric gave the AUD strength and a slightly dovish hold weakened the GBP. Speculation the UK prime mister is under pressure also has growing potential to weigh on the pound.
Friday bought a big 'risk on recovery day' and I'll begin the new week assessing whether the positivity can continue or whether it was a short lived bout of profit taking.
On a personal note, it was a positive week of three trades. Early in the week, feeling the USD JPY recovery had room to run, I placed two USD JPY longs.
I didn't get involved trading during the height of Thursday's AI negativity, arguably there was a risk off trade to be had but I wasn't so sure.
On Friday, I jumped on the recovery, with a ''risk on' GBP JPY long, feeling that in the positive environment the pounds weakness was likely to reverse. The trade was closed in profit before end of day.
I'm 'tentatively hopeful' of more JPY short trades post election. But the delayed NFP and the AI narrative could have a big say on proceedings this upcoming week.
Results:
Trade 1: USD JPY +1.5
Trade 2: USD JPY +1.2
Trade 3: GBP JPY +0.8
Total = +3.5%
EURUSD FREE SIGNAL|SHORT|
✅EURUSD
ICT shows price tapping premium FVG after impulsive move. Bearish reaction expected as buy-side liquidity is swept, targeting discounted imbalance below.
—————————
Entry: 1.1816
Stop Loss: 1.1838
Take Profit: 1.1785
Time Frame: 3H
—————————
SHORT🔥
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