ETH/USD - BUILDING MOMENTUM FOR NEXT BULLISH LEGOn the 15-minute ETH/USD chart, we can clearly observe that price action has shifted into a bullish structure after forming a strong impulse move from the lower demand zone. The market respected the higher timeframe liquidity area around 4,140 – 4,150, where buyers stepped in aggressively, creating a solid base for the upward push. From there, a clean series of higher highs and higher lows started to establish, indicating strong bullish momentum in play.
Currently, ETH is respecting the ascending trendline that has been guiding the price upward. Each retest of this trendline has been met with bullish rejections, confirming that buyers remain in control. The price is now consolidating just above the minor supply-turned-demand zone near 4,170, which shows that the previous resistance has flipped into support — a positive sign for continuation.
If the price manages to sustain above this intraday support and trendline, we can expect a potential continuation toward the upside target. Any minor pullback into the demand zone would likely attract buyers again, keeping the bullish structure intact. As long as price stays above the 4,160 zone and does not break below the trendline with strong bearish candles, the bias remains bullish.
Overall, the structure suggests that ETH is preparing for another leg higher, with the projected target in sight. Traders should monitor the price behavior around the support and trendline for confirmation before entering, as clean candle closures above these levels will add confidence to the bullish scenario.
Fundamental-analysis
EUR/AUD - Breakout Pattern|Buy Opportunity (26.09.2025)The EUR/AUD pair has been trading inside a descending wedge formation and is now showing a potential breakout to the upside.
🔹 Price successfully tested the trendline resistance and is gaining bullish momentum.
🔹 Buyers are stepping in after multiple rejections near the lower boundary (A–C trendline).
🔹 Breakout above 1.7860 zone opens the path toward higher resistance levels.
📊 Trading Plan:
Buy above breakout zone confirmation
1st Resistance: 1.7929
2nd Resistance: 1.7966
Maintain risk management and wait for candle confirmation.
✨ Trade safe & stay disciplined!
#EURAUD #Forex #Breakout #TradingView #FXAnalysis #PriceAction #ForexTrading #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Kabhi_TA_Trading
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📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 29, 2025 EURUSDThe euro remains under pressure due to the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar after a series of solid U.S. macro releases and a revived discussion about the risks of a temporary government shutdown. The upward revision to U.S. Q2 GDP growth has strengthened the case for a more cautious pace of Fed easing, supporting yields and the dollar. Against this backdrop, the euro, despite brief rebounds, is trading close to the lows of recent weeks.
Another factor is anticipation of upcoming U.S. releases on inflation and consumer activity, which the market views as critical for the Fed’s late-October decision. In Europe, investors’ attention is focused on the path of further disinflation and subdued growth; this leaves the ECB room for careful easing ahead, narrowing the yield differential to the euro’s disadvantage.
In the near term, the balance of risks tilts toward moderate dollar strength: market participants prefer defensive positioning until the U.S. budget agenda and the next batch of price/activity data are clarified. As long as the euro lacks an additional boost from positive surprises in the euro area, pressure on EURUSD may persist.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.17350, SL 1.17550, TP 1.16450
EURUSD Fundamental Outlook🚨 Current Mood:
- Powell’s cautious Fed stance = USD support 🦅
- Germany’s Ifo dropped again = EUR weakness 🇩🇪
- ECB not hawkish enough, still open for cuts = neutral / soft EUR 🏦
📊 Positioning:
- CFTC shows crowded EUR longs → risk of squeeze ⚠️
- Retail traders still buying dips → contrarian bearish 🚫
🔑 What to Expect
- Bullish drivers: 🔼 Strong EU PMIs, upbeat ECB tone, weak U.S. jobs/inflation.
- Bearish drivers: 🔽 More weak EU data, ECB easing hints, hawkish Fed lines.
🎯 Sentiment Snapshot
👉 Macro tone: Bearish tilt for EURUSD
👉 Pros: already long, risk for downside flush
👉 Retail: net long (contrarian bearish)
📌 Conclusion:
Right now, EURUSD is tilted bearish unless Euro data surprises to the upside. Keep eyes on EZ PMIs & U.S. data prints. Sellers may have the edge in the short run. ⚡
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 25, 2025 GBPUSDSterling remains under pressure around 1.34–1.35 following the Fed Chair’s emphasis on data dependence, which strengthened the dollar and tempered expectations for the pace of U.S. policy easing. For the pound this implies a less favorable yield differential in the near term and reduced currency appeal.
Domestically, recent U.K. business activity data pointed to weakness in both manufacturing and services. Against this backdrop, the Bank of England remains cautious and markets are revising the rate path, which also limits upside for the pound. Budget considerations and debates around public finances add to the risk premium on U.K. assets.
External factors — expectations around U.S. PCE and developments in global tariffs — amplify dollar fluctuations and, by extension, volatility in GBPUSD. As long as U.K. data do not show sustained improvement while U.S. indicators underpin the dollar, risks remain tilted to the downside for the pair.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.34500, SL 1.35150, TP 1.34000
AMD reversal pattern and long-term growth potentialOn the AMD chart price holds the key support around 149–150 forming a base for continuation of the bullish trend. Above the consolidation zone at 160 targets open at 183, 217 and 259. In the longer-term perspective the structure points toward 326 and even higher as the trend remains bullish. Should a correction occur the 129 zone acts as major support to preserve the upward structure.
AMD keeps strengthening its market share in processors and GPUs, expanding rapidly in the server and AI segments. Strong demand for company products and its growing role in the AI ecosystem continue to attract institutional investors. Looking ahead to 2026, some analysts expect the stock to potentially reach levels around 900 per share.
Both the technical setup and fundamentals support further upside with near-term targets at 183, 217 and 259 while in the long-term a scenario above 300 and potentially up to 900 stays in focus for strategic investors. Risk-to-reward conditions provide a strong basis for holding existing positions and considering new entries. Additionally, investors may also look at opportunities through the AMD-linked ETF (AMDL).
USD/JPY - Bullish Channel, Next Targeting 148.95 (23.09.2025)#USDJPY #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis
USD/JPY is trading within a Bullish Channel Pattern on the 30M chart, holding above the rising trendline support. The pair is bouncing from the support zone (147.50 – 147.70), signaling potential upside continuation.
🔹 Market Structure:
Bullish channel intact with higher highs & higher lows.
Price rejected the support zone and trendline.
Momentum suggests buyers could retest upper channel resistance.
🔹 Key Levels:
Support Zone: 147.50 – 147.70
1st Resistance: 148.58
2nd Resistance: 148.95
📈 Trading Idea:
As long as USD/JPY stays above the support zone, bulls may drive price higher toward 148.58 → 148.95.
⚠️ Invalidation:
A break below 147.50 would weaken the bullish outlook.
“Discipline + Patience = Consistency 🔑”
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 24, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD holds near 1.18 amid a mix of more cautious Federal Reserve signals and signs of a gradual recovery in euro area business activity. Markets are pricing the Fed’s first step toward policy easing in a year alongside messages about proceeding carefully, which reduces the dollar’s appeal while Treasury yields remain broadly steady. The euro is supported by fresh flash PMIs: the composite index for the region improved, even if the picture remains uneven across countries. At the same time, the ECB kept rates unchanged at its September meeting and indicated that the pace of any further changes will depend on the inflation path and domestic demand.
In the United States, “fast” indicators point to slower business momentum, while price pressures—still above target—look more contained. This strengthens expectations for a moderate Fed rate-cut cycle by year-end. In this setup, the balance of yield differentials and policy expectations tilts slightly toward the euro, especially if incoming U.S. data continue to confirm cooling growth.
Key risks for EUR/USD buyers are U.S. inflation and employment releases: any upside surprises could revive demand for the dollar. On the euro side, vulnerabilities include German industrial weakness and stagnating new orders. Nevertheless, for the current week the balance of factors looks neutral-to-positive for the pair, supporting tactical buys from the 1.18 area.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.18050, SL 1.17750, TP 1.18600
iQIYI: bet on recovery or just another illusion?Fundamentally, iQIYI is often called the “Netflix of China.” In recent years, it has faced heavy pressure from high debt levels, fierce competition from Tencent Video and Bilibili, and slower growth in the Chinese domestic market. However, recent earnings reports show positive shifts: a growing subscriber base, higher ARPU (average revenue per user), and reduced operating losses. With government support for the tech and entertainment sector and signs of consumer recovery, iQIYI has a real chance to strengthen in the mid to long term. If subscriber growth and cost control continue, the company’s market cap could start to recover, making current levels attractive for medium-term investors.
Technically, the stock still trades below the 200 EMA, showing ongoing seller pressure. The key support zone is $2.30–2.40, and holding this area keeps the bullish scenario alive with targets at $3.40 and $5.25. A longer-term recovery could extend toward $10.40, but only if a sustainable uptrend is confirmed. Losing $2.30 would invalidate the bullish case and expose downside toward $1.60–1.80.
This is one of those situations where market expectations diverge from reality. Optimism makes a reversal seem near, but as always, emotions must be put aside — we wait for clear technical signals before entering.
USDX: demand zone holds but downside pressure remainsThe US dollar index remains under pressure, trading within a descending channel. The recent bounce from the support zone around 96.30–96.90 stalled at the EMAs and the supply zone near 98.30–98.60, where sellers reappeared. On the 4H chart, price has failed to sustain above 97.80, keeping the bearish scenario in play.
It is also important to note that the index is trading below the 200 EMA, reinforcing the bearish bias and signaling that sustainable recovery is less likely without strong fundamental catalysts.
If 96.90 breaks, the next downside target is 96.30, followed by 95.40. Stronger bearish momentum could even push the index toward 94.00, signaling further dollar weakness. For now, 96.30 acts as the key support barrier.
From a fundamental perspective, the dollar index remains weighed down by expectations of a dovish Fed and lower yields. Any hawkish surprise from Fed officials could lift price back toward 98.50, but the structure still favors bearish continuation.
This is exactly the kind of situation where market expectations diverge from reality, and the longer it lasts the more it feels like a trend reversal is near. But as always, emotions must be set aside — we wait for clear signals, not illusions.
ES (E-mini S&P 500) — Plan for Wed Sep 24Fundamentals (tomorrow, ET)
04:00 Germany IFO Business Climate (often moves European risk tone during London).
10:00 U.S. New Home Sales (Aug) — official Census schedule lists New Residential Sales at 10:00 a.m..
10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard time each Wed).
13:00 U.S. 5-Year Note auction (can nudge yields/indices).
Context: Yesterday’s U.S. flash PMIs showed slower but still-expanding activity (Composite 53.6 vs 54.6 Aug).
Bias(HTF→LTF)
HTF: Uptrend but near prior highs; Tuesday printed a lower-timeframe selloff into ~6,701–6,705 (confluence with D1 1.272 ≈ 6,705).
Base case into London: Two-way trade inside 6,701–6,744–6,756 triad while Europe digests IFO.
Two paths for NY:
Acceptance ↑ above 6,756.5 → squeeze the weak-highs toward 6,765–6,770, then 6,798–6,800 (D1 1.618).
Acceptance ↓ below 6,701–6,705 → trend rotation toward 6,690s → 6,680s (next liquidity shelves).
London session game plan
If Europe pushes up early: Watch 6,744. Failure there → rotate back to 6,711–6,718; clean reclaim → sets NY for a 6,756 test.
If Europe bleeds down: Look for sweep & hold behavior at 6,701–6,705; loss of that area on 15m body-through tends to trend extend into the 6,69x/6,68x shelves before NY AM.
NY AM (09:30–11:00 ET) and NY PM (13:30–16:00 ET) → full size, run the exact confirmations and targets I gave.
A++ Acceptance LONG — above 6,756.5
Confirmations (15/5/1):
• 15m full-body close above 6,756.5 (acceptance).
• 5m pullback holds ≥ 6,754–6,756 and re-closes up.
• 1m HL entry on first clean re-trigger.
Entry: 6,756–6,758 on the retest (or continuation >6,760 after 5m re-close).
Hard SL: below the 15m trigger wick or < 6,744 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is lower).
Targets: TP1 6,765–6,770, TP2 6,798–6,800, TP3 6,901.
Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trail before TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside < 6,756 after entry that fails the 5m hold → cancel and reassess.
=============
A++ Acceptance SHORT — below 6,701–6,705
Confirmations (15/5/1):
• 15m full-body close below 6,701 (body-through the band).
• 5m LH + re-close down on the retest of 6,701–6,705.
• 1m LH entry on first pullback failure.
Entry: 6,699–6,703 on the retest.
Hard SL: above the 15m trigger wick or > 6,705 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is higher).
Targets: TP1 6,690–6,692, TP2 6,680–6,685, TP3 trail if trend accelerates.
Management: Same rules as Setup #1 (TP1 70% + runner to BE; 45–60m time-stop; max 2 attempts).
Invalidation: Reclaim on 15m back above 6,705 that holds → cancel the short.
⸻
Risk & timing notes
• 10:00 New Home Sales and 10:30 EIA can cause abrupt spikes; favor entries after the first post-data 5m bar closes unless already in with cushion.
• 13:00 5-Year auction can alter yield curve into the NY PM window; manage runners.
Gold (Sep 22–26): Can Bulls Defend $3,700 as ETF Inflows Slow?1. Institutional Forecast Updates
Goldman Sachs (Sep 4, 2025): Targets $3,700/oz for Q4 2025 and $4,000/oz for Q2 2026.
J.P. Morgan (Apr 22, 2025): Projects $3,650/oz for Q4 2025 and sees prices above $4,000/oz by Q2 2026.
References:
www.reuters.com
www.reuters.com
2. Key Drivers & Risks
🟪 Gold ETF flows: Gold-backed ETF inflows surged in 2025, but high prices have caused those inflows to slow.
🟧 Central Bank Statistics: Central bank demand increased in 2025, but they largely held their reserves with little buying or selling.
🟨 Markets are anticipating further Fed rate cuts, which would lower real interest rates and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
🟩 Political and geopolitical tensions have eased recently, with no new developments providing additional support for gold prices.
🟦 The economic environment appears stable (the S&P 500 VIX is currently low), which could shift capital toward higher-risk markets.
⇨ There are no clear signs of a sustained decline in gold prices, but caution is advised around the $3,700/oz level, as institutional inflows are weakening and downside risks are present.
Source: World Gold Council
3. 🏦📊 Technical Analysis
* Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide.
** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals.
*** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors – static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) – and determined based on the trader’s discretion.
**** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it.
How do you think about this idea? Let us know your thoughts below :)
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 23, 2025 USDJPYThe key fundamental driver remains unchanged: the yield and rate gap between the US and Japan, where the Bank of Japan maintains ultra-loose policy while the US supports relatively high yields, systematically supporting long USD positions against the yen. In quiet periods, carry trade mechanics work stably, and occasional verbal interventions from Tokyo usually have short-lived effect without trend base changes absent central bank policy shifts. On this background, even after pullbacks, the pair tends to resume gains reflecting yield premium and global USD demand amid strengthening US macro data.
News assessments on EURUSD and market sentiment highlight high USD sensitivity to inflation and labor data releases, which, upon strong data, usually translates into USDJPY gains via the UST curve. With ECB holding rates and markets expecting Fed easing later, short-term USD fluctuations are often data surprise-driven, while yen remains the "weak link" due to BOJ policy. Therefore, an entry near 147.800 is justified for tactical buying with controlled risk until signs of sustained policy shifts in Tokyo or sharp US yield drops emerge.
Current cross rates through EUR confirm the USDJPY calculated target near 147.800 for today's session, consistent with entry choice at 147.800 for carry-support continuation scenario. Risk management implies a tight stop within 0.20 given possible short-term volatility on news and comments from Japanese officials. The target around 148.800 reflects gradual advance amid sustaining divergence in US-Japan monetary regimes.
Trading recommendation: BUY 147.800, SL 147.600, TP 148.800
EUR/AUD - Selling Pressure Below 1.7850 (22.09.2025)#EURAUD #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis
EUR/AUD – Channel Breakout Pattern (30M)
EUR/AUD has broken below the rising channel, confirming a bearish reversal after completing a Head & Shoulders pattern at the top.
🔹 Market Structure:
Clear rejection from the resistance zone (1.7850 – 1.7860)
Breakdown of the bullish channel support
Head & Shoulders formation adding to bearish momentum
🔹 Key Levels:
1st Support: 1.7715
2nd Support: 1.7710
📉 Trading Idea:
As long as EUR/AUD stays below the channel resistance, selling pressure could drive price toward the support levels.
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EURUSD: wedge narrowing with downside targets in sightOn the daily chart, EURUSD has formed a rising wedge pattern, and the current price action indicates readiness for a decline. Attempts to hold above 1.1800 have failed, pressure has increased, and last week’s close can be viewed as a potential false breakout.
The first downside target is at 1.1413, where a strong support level lies. Further targets may shift to 1.0750 and 1.0480 levels that have accumulated significant volume over the past few months. A full breakdown of the wedge would give momentum to the bearish scenario and increase pressure on the euro.
From a fundamental perspective, the picture remains mixed: the 200 EMA capping from above and the sideways movement in the dollar index confirm the likelihood of euro weakness, but every pullback continues to be aggressively bought, preventing a collapse. If the dollar gains additional support from US macroeconomic data or Federal Reserve policy, the bearish scenario will become dominant.
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 22, 2025 GBPUSDThe latest public finance data showed that net borrowing by the public sector reached £18 billion, the highest monthly figure in five years. Economists had expected public borrowing to be significantly lower, at £12.8 billion. Analysts believe that this move threatens to exacerbate the debt burden and increase fiscal risks, which could put some pressure on the pound sterling.
On Thursday, the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates at 4.0% amid uncertain growth prospects and a weakening labor market. This decision was made after the UK central bank last cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) in August. The Bank of England reiterated that “a gradual and cautious further easing of monetary policy constraints remains appropriate.”
As for the US dollar, last week the US Federal Reserve (Fed) approved a widely expected rate cut and signaled that there would be two more cuts before the end of the year.
Traders will be focusing more on the Fed's statements later on Monday. Comments from Fed officials may provide some clues about the outlook for US interest rates.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3430, SL 1.3460, TP 1.3380
EUR/USD - Fundamental Move (18.09.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern.
This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1744
2nd Support – 1.1704
Fundamental Updates :
Fed Chair Powell described this rate cut as a way to manage risks due to a weaker job market, and said there is no need to rush further rate cuts. The Fed's future plans suggest more rate cuts this year, but only one more in 2026.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 19, 2025 EURUSDThe US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 231,000 for the week ending September 13. The latest data was lower than the initial estimate of 240,000 and lower than the previous week's figure of 264,000 (revised from 263,000). Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 to 1.920 million for the week ending September 6.
The US dollar remains strong after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced an expected rate cut on Wednesday but did not indicate that it would rush to lower borrowing costs in the coming months.
The decline in the EUR/USD pair may be limited as the euro (EUR) could be supported by growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will end its cycle of rate cuts after the release of the latest inflation data.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the central bank should take a “very cautious” approach given the high uncertainty. Guindos added that the current rate is adequate given inflation trends and monetary policy transmission.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1765, TP 1.1685
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 18, 2025 USDJPYAfter the Fed’s rate cut, the U.S.–Japan yield differential narrowed slightly, supporting the yen and capping USD/JPY. The focus now is on tomorrow’s Bank of Japan meeting: the base case is unchanged policy settings, with heightened attention to assessments of inflation and wages as well as comments on the balance of risks over the coming months.
Even without immediate BoJ steps, expectations of further normalization of monetary policy in Japan later this year periodically boost demand for the yen. At the same time, the dollar enjoys short-term support after the Fed decision, though it is constrained by messaging about a gradual approach going forward, which limits the potential for a sustained rise in the pair.
Overall, the balance of factors tilts toward a tactical decline in USD/JPY, while warranting caution given the pair’s sensitivity to BoJ communication and U.S. yield dynamics. Selling with a moderate stop-loss and a conservative target is preferred.
Trade recommendation: SELL 146.900, SL 147.400, TP 146.000
HINO📊 HINO (PSX) Analysis (One can also buy on current market price)
🔎 Fundamentals
🚌 Buses & Trucks: Orders surged 80% 🚀
💰 Undervalued Price → Attractive entry point for long-term investors
📈 Earnings Growth: EPS improved to 4.67 ✅
🤝 MFTBC (Mitsubishi Fuso Truck & Bus Corp.) agreement with HINO → backed by a 100% publicly listed global player 🌍
📉 Technicals
📍 3 Accumulation Areas → Strong buying interest spotted
📊 Trendline Break (Daily) → Closed at 562 → ✅ Buy Signal
🔄 Support Bounce: Price moves in the 562–582 range → Ideal Buy Zone
⚡ If Support Breaks: Next attractive Buy Zone → 360–390
Note: (One can also buy on current market price)
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 17, 2025 GBPUSDThe pound is supported by sticky domestic inflation: in July, the index accelerated to 3.8% y/y, and releases and commentary point to the risk of sustained high inflation, forcing the Bank of England to act cautiously in easing pace and maintaining a premium on UK yields.
The scenario of a 25 bps Fed rate cut today sets a softer external backdrop for USD and narrows the yield differential in favor of GBP, boosting inflows into sterling assets on expectations that the BoE will signal slower easing ahead given persistent price pressures.
Market ranges for GBPUSD in recent weeks concentrated around 1.35000–1.36000, which is confirmed by price behavior and news flow, aligning the chosen trade levels with current spot values and fundamental drivers.
Additionally, market participants monitor U.S. developments: ahead of the Fed meeting the dollar index declined and equities traded cautiously, reflecting near‑full pricing of a 25 bps cut and the search for dovish hints in the statement, which, if confirmed, strengthens the case for pound appreciation.
The risk balance for GBP is also supported by the fact that the BoE has eased gradually before and may prefer a pause if service inflation accelerates, maintaining sterling’s appeal relative to currencies with faster rate cuts.
Trade recommendation: GBPUSD: BUY 1.36500, SL 1.36300, TP 1.37500






















