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LiamTrading – XAUUSD Market points to Wave 4LiamTrading – XAUUSD Outlook Sharing my personal view on the next potential move for gold. From the current chart structure, the wave pattern suggests XAUUSD is likely in Wave 4. The correction began yesterday after price touched the 3,700 round number – a key resistance area that also aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This zone typically attracts significant liquidity, and the subsequent pullback adds weight to the view that Wave 4 has been triggered. At present, the main support level to monitor is 3,675. A break below this level could see the corrective move complete around 3,656. On the H1 timeframe, RSI has dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions. In my opinion, while the market trades in this area, short positions remain favourable, though patience is required until clearer confluence signals emerge. Trading plan (short-term focus): Sell 3685–3687, SL 3693, TP 3670 – 3656 Buy 3656–3654, SL 3648, TP 3675 – 3690 – 3702 – 3721 – 3740 I’ll continue to share further updates if price action shows significant changes. Wishing everyone good trading and success in the markets.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – FOMC Rate-Cut Watch (Key Levels & Outlook)Gold is holding around $3,686 as traders brace for the FOMC decision at 8 pm (UTC-2). Markets are increasingly pricing a potential rate cut, which would typically weaken the USD and support gold. Key Levels Upside Resistance: • $3,693–3,695 – first breakout zone • $3,703 – critical resistance, sustained close above opens door to $3,710+ Immediate Support: • $3,682 / 3,678 – intraday demand • $3,676–3,675 – next strong bid area • $3,674 – last major floor before deeper pullback Scenarios Bullish: A dovish Fed or an actual rate cut could spark a rally through $3,695, targeting $3,703 and potentially $3,710–3,720. Bearish: A hawkish surprise or no cut may send price back toward $3,678, with deeper support near $3,674. Fundamentals Rate Cut Probability: Markets are eyeing slowing U.S. labor data and softer inflation as justification for a 25 bps cut. USD & Yields: Lower yields would typically push the dollar lower and gold higher. Risk Events: Watch Fed press conference language for hints of further easing. ⚠️ Trading Plan: Wait for the FOMC announcement before committing. Breakout above $3,695 favors longs; rejection could set up a quick move back to $3,676. This is market commentary, not financial advice—manage risk carefully around high-volatility events. Greetings, MrYounity
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by MrYounity
Hesai Group (HSAI) – LiDAR Leader Gearing Up for a Global RunHesai NASDAQ:HSAI is a dominant force in automotive LiDAR, holding a 33% global market share. With a strong portfolio of next-gen sensors, the company is pushing boundaries in autonomous driving, robotics, and industrial automation. 🔹 Catalyst: Upcoming Hong Kong IPO ($475M target) adds global visibility, improves liquidity, and diversifies funding amid U.S.–China tensions. 🔹 Tech Edge: Showcased ETX and FTX models at IAA Mobility 2025 – leading in range, resolution, and solid-state design for L3/L4 autonomy. 🔹 Growth Path: Backed by OEM & Tier-1 partnerships, expanding globally with durable revenue streams. 💡 Bullish above $24.50–$25.00 🎯 Target zone: $40.00–$42.00 📊 Watching volume and price action closely into the IPO news cycle. 🧠 Tech + geopolitical tailwinds + market leadership = strong breakout potential. #HSAI #LiDAR #AutonomousDriving #IPO #TechStocks
NASDAQ:HSAILong
by Richtv_official
Compression Below Resistance: Prepare for Post-FOMC BTC Plays__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is trapped in a volatility compression zone, trading just below key resistance and awaiting the high-stakes FOMC catalyst. The broader context shows contained flows and limited directional momentum: the market is on standby. Momentum: Short-term momentum is neutral to slightly bearish 📉, with price tightly range-bound and no strong buying impulse. All eyes on the macro trigger. Key levels: — Resistances (clustered):  • 116,800–116,814 (240 Pivot High, dominant multi-TF resistance)  • 124,277 (ATH/Daily Pivot High) — Supports :  • 114,800–114,809 (240 Pivot, primary short-term support)  • 113,421 (720 Pivot)  • 111,965 (Weekly Pivot High) Volumes: Volumes are normal across all timeframes, with only a small bump on short-term down moves (30m/15m) — no signs of extreme positioning. Multi-timeframe signals: Medium-term trend remains bullish (MTFTI "Strong Up" on daily/12H), but short-term timeframes (1H–4H–12H) show downward momentum and lack of a decisive volume trigger. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral to sell bias , confirming the absence of strong risk-on flows and supporting a cautious tactical approach. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant tone is cautious sideways compression — only act on clear breakout or rejection signals at range extremes. Global bias: Short-term neutral to bearish ; invalidated by a clear reclaim and hold above 116,814. Opportunities:  • Buy “breakout” only if price clearly breaks and sustains >116,814 with strong volume (first target 117,300, then 118,400+); invalidate below 114,809.  • Sell on firm break and hold <114,809, adding size if volume rises, targeting 114,000–113,000; invalidate on swift rebound >115,700. Risk zones / invalidations:  • Reclaim and hold >116,814 (with volume) invalidates short bias.  • Breakdown and hold <114,809 across several TFs activates downside. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):  • Imminent FOMC decision — options market, volatility compression, and max defensive positioning are the primary drivers.  • ETF flows cooling, Bitcoin dominance declining, risk rotations likely post-FOMC — no strong risk-on evidence yet.  • UK/EU inflation and dovish central banks are background noise, not immediate BTC movers. Action plan:  • on breakout or clean rejection of technical pivots (116,814/114,809).  • below indicated risk line.  • 117,300, 118,400+ in long; 114,000, 113,000 in short.  • R/R ~1.8–2; max initial exposure 12.5%, only scale in with confirmed multi-TF momentum. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ All timeframes show a tense coil: no timeframe provides a clear trend for now, reinforcing a "wait and see" approach. 1D/12H: Medium-term uptrend filter persists (MTFTI “Strong Up”), but near-term momentum repeatedly stalls below 116,814–116,800, with no volume breakthrough. 6H/4H/2H/1H: Tightly coiled range, anchored at 114,809; loss would open up liquidity tests down to 113,421–114,000. 30m/15m: Volume picks up on short-term declines; only a fleeting “risk-on” flash on 15m (no follow-through to higher TFs). Major divergences: Isolated 6H “Strong Buy” on equity isn’t confirmed at the market level, making any bounce fragile. 15m “risk-on” flashes lack multi-TF confirmation. Key invalidation/pivot levels are well aligned across TFs — critical for reactivity when the move comes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro and on-chain forces both encourage patience, with the FOMC outcome set to trigger the next major move. Macro events:  • in focus, strong rate cut expectations and options market tension dominate — clear primary driver.  • BoC goes dovish, UK/EU inflation tensions, but no direct “risk-on” signals across global macro.  • ETF flows tepid, specific post-FOMC asset rotation will be key. Bitcoin analysis:  • Bitcoin consolidates ~6.8% below ATH, inside technical “cloud” — price activity is all about risk management (options, ETF).  • On-chain support ~110k–114k solid, resistance 115.8k–116.8k, tightly aligned with technical levels. On-chain data:  • ETF inflows dormant, derivatives lead price action, no clear sign of euphoria or capitulation; on-chain support >108k remains robust.  • Overall attitude is defensive, “wait for the catalyst” mode. Expected impact:  • The FOMC’s reaction will drive the technical breakout or breakdown; only a clear confirmation will unlock decisive follow-through beyond the current coil. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin remains trapped in a compression phase under key resistance, on high alert going into the FOMC. The overall trend is short-term neutral to bearish, with all bullish setups hinged on a confirmed pivot breakout above 116,814. The highest-conviction play is to let the FOMC be the trigger: position with the move, not before. Macro dominance means no reason to anticipate a risk-on rotation until confirmation. Keep your edge: wait for multi-TF signals and volume confluence, and manage exposure tightly — false breakouts and volatility traps are the enemy heading into this macro event!
by Ox_kali
GIS Ascending Broadening Wedge SetupGIS has a strong wedge setup here. Looking at previous trends, price has bounced off the Lower Trendline twice in the past. GIS could be due for yet another bounce off the Lower Trendline. I will watch around that $48-$40 range for a possible breakout, especially with earnings coming up. Based on the chart patterns, I would be bearish if price falls below that $37 range. Whereas, anything above that $56 we’re probably in for a decent price increase. Please leave your comments/feedback below
NYSE:GISLong
by Stoxor
Agree Realty | ADC | Long at $72.37Agree Realty NYSE:ADC Summary: A "boring" REIT with a 4.2% dividend, ~68% investment-grade tenants, high occupancy (~99%), average lease terms of 10+ years, which include major tenants Walmart (top tenant), Dollar General, Tractor Supply, Best Buy, Dollar Tree, TJ Maxx, O'Reilly Auto Parts, CVS, Kroger, Lowe's, Hobby Lobby, Burlington, Sherwin-Williams, Sunbelt Rentals, Wawa, Home Depot.... Technical Analysis: Cup and handle formation may be forming off the recent double bottom (bullish). Two open price gaps remain on the daily chart since 2020 (down near $59) - chance these may get closed if the market turns in the near-term. However, REITs average +30% returns within 16 months post-Fed rate cuts, so patience may benefit investors here. Follow the Money : Insiders buying . Company Financial Health: Strong. $2.3B liquidity, no material debt maturities until 2028, and investment-grade balance sheet (A- rating from Fitch). Debt-to-assets ~40%, covered by stable net-lease rents. Macro risks (e.g., tenant bankruptcies like At Home, consumer slowdown) exist but are mitigated by diversification. Altman Z-Score suggests low distress and no near-term catalysts for insolvency. Earnings and Revenue Growth: ~4% between 2025 and 2027 (slow growth, but good/steady for a REIT). Thus, at $72.37, NYSE:ADC is in a personal buy zone for a likely move up given the high probability of lower interest rates in the future. A near-term risk of a drop to $59 could occur, but REITs often move higher within 1-2 years after interest rates cuts. It's a solid company financially with a good dividend. Targets into 2028: $80.00 (+10.5%) $90.00 (+24.3%)
NYSE:ADCLong
by WorthlessViews
Ethereum Trade Setup📲 NFX Trade Alert – Swing Setup 💹 Instrument: Ethereum COINBASE:ETHUSD 🛒 Trade Type: Swing – Buy at Market 📍 Entry: $4,690 ⛔ Stop Loss: $4,624 (tight stop placed just below the S/R breakout level) ✅ Target Profit: $5,050 📊 Trade Setup Analysis – BINANCE:ETHUSD MARKETSCOM:ETHEREUM Ethereum showed no weakness over the weekend, breaking decisively above the $4,650 resistance and extending toward $4,750. Price has since retested $4,650(23.6% Trend Fib), with strong rejection confirming this former resistance is now acting as solid support. We’re applying a tight stop loss at $4,624, just below the breakout level, to minimize risk while maintaining bullish exposure. With this breakout confirmed, there’s no major resistance until the previous ATH around $4,950. The path remains open for continuation higher. ⚖️ Risk management remains key - even strong, high-probability setups demand discipline and protection. 💚
Long
by niclaxfx
CSCO : Bullish Harmonic Pattern In a Bullish TrendCSCO: Bullish Harmonic Pattern In a Bullish Trend Cisco (CSCO) has formed a Bullish Harmonic Pattern In a Bullish Trend, suggesting a potential bullish setup if the support near 66.10 holds. If buyers step in, the price could start a recovery with upside targets at: $68.00 $69.00 $70.00 – major target and strong resistance zone As long as CSCO stays above the recent low around 66.10, the bullish scenario remains valid. A break below this level would invalidate the pattern and could lead to further downside. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points today, and the interest rate forecast could provide a better idea of ​​the details ahead. This could further boost the price. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NASDAQ:CSCOLong
by KlejdiCuni
1
OIL Trade Insights📲 NFX TRADE ALERT 📊 TRADE TYPE: SWING TRADE ♻ PAIR: GBEBROKERS:USOIL ⬇️ SELL AT MARKET 📝 ORDER TYPE: MARKET ORDER 👨🏻‍💻 ENTRY : $64.45 ⭕️ SL: 65.450 ✅ TP: $62.00 📝 REASONS FOR TRADE: H1 Confirmation of Price Rejection at Resistance - SR Holds📈 Multiple reversal candles spotted on H4 around supply zone, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Pay close attention to US Inventory report later the morning. I expect report to be bearish for oil given the high supply as seen last week.
GBEBROKERS:USOILShort
by niclaxfx
1
Monthly Crypto Analysis: Fantom (FTM/USD) – Issue 90 The analyst believes that the price of Fantom(sonic) will decrease within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend. ___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame. Analyzed by: Ehsan Pedram (MOONRISETA)
CRYPTO:FTMUSDShort
by MoonriseTA
GOLD Trade Update📢 NFX FX:XAUUSD Trade Update TVC:GOLD recently dropped to retest the key SR level at 3660 – the previous ascending triangle breakout level on H1 TF. Following the 25bps cut by ECONOMICS:CAINTR BoC , the retest was strongly rejected, resulting in a +200pts gain. 🔎 Current Outlook: Price is trending towards the recent ATH at 3700 Watching for a breakout above 3685 ahead of the Fed Rate Cut Market expectation: 25bps cut from the ECONOMICS:USINTR → could trigger an instant +200pts move ⚖️ Bias: Bullish – but stay sharp ahead of high-impact news. ✍️ Trade smart, stay disciplined, and protect your capital.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by niclaxfx
1
Rate Cuts, Liquidity, and BTC: Why 120K Is the Danger ZoneYesterday , while everyone was screaming about a Bitcoin dump, we caught the breakout of that resistance I showed you. Today, I want to talk about the upcoming rate cut news , what could happen after it, and what we should do with our open positions. Now personally, I’m still holding the breakout position we entered a week ago . I didn’t secure any profits, and honestly—I didn’t even want to. Because if the Fed cuts rates, we could kick off the next leg of this uptrend. But keep this in mind: opening fresh positions around 120K IS NOT EASY AT ALL. Why? Because there’s massive liquidity up there, huge volatility, and the chances of getting stopped out are very high. That’s exactly why I’d rather hold my position from earlier than be forced to open new ones in that zone. 👉 Let’s look at yesterday’s daily candle: it closed super bullish. This shows the market is leaning positive on the idea of a rate cut. But is this candle just front-running the news? Hard to say. We can’t exactly go ask every trader if they bought because of the Fed. So, better not overthink it. I personally expect a short-term dip after the news drops. But more important than the cut itself are Powell’s words. If he signals more cuts are coming, markets could explode higher. If he says “not anytime soon,” we might get a pullback. ⚠️ My advice: If you don’t already have a position, stay on the sidelines for a few hours. Any stop loss you put now has a big chance of getting hit. But if, like me, you’re already in from the earlier triggers, just hold. It’s worth it. For me, I’m also long on GBP/USD, and I didn’t secure profits there either—I’m waiting to see how it reacts. 👉 Quick look at BTC.D: dominance is rising with Bitcoin, which means it’s smarter to keep focus on BTC rather than altcoins. When dominance turns bearish again, that’s when we’ll shift back to alts. This is why for the past few days I’ve been saying: stick with Bitcoin. Liquidity is flowing into it. Ethereum? It gave back almost 70% of its recent move. LONG STORY SHORT: don’t do anything stupid here. The best play, if you don’t have an open position, is to stay patient. Don’t FOMO. Remember: the most important thing is not Bitcoin’s price itself. It’s stop-loss size, liquidity zones, and momentum. here in Skeptic Lab, that’s exactly what we dig into. I’ll try to post another update after the Fed news drops. Until then, stay safe. Peace ✌️
by SkepticLab
NIFTY Technical Outlook: Breakout Backed by Trade Talk Optimism.NIFTY has successfully broken the resistance level of 25,150 and is holding steady above it. A retest of this level could provide a good entry opportunity, with the next target at 25,550. The market is maintaining a steady uptrend, largely supported by optimism around the resumption of trade talks between India and the USA. Hopes of a potential trade deal are fueling positive sentiment. However, traders should remain cautious — any delay or setback in negotiations could quickly trigger downside pressure. If you plan to take a position, it’s wise to manage risk carefully, trade with smaller quantities, and keep positions light.
NSE:NIFTY
by Kartik_Elkunchwar
Bitcoin: Is it time?Being a crypto enthusiast, these are exciting times! We have seen Bitcoin hit all time highs just a couple of weeks back, topping out $124,580 before retracing down to $107,000. Many questioned: HAS THE BITCOIN BUBBLE BURST? I would like to disagree with that. With the rate cuts being 'almost' certain today, we expect risk assets (such as BTC) to be more attractive investments for both firms and investors globally. After reaching the all-time highs and with the news event scheduled for mid-September, the sell off into the discount zone (as shown in the chart) was expected from my end and we have rebalanced the impulsive price action that led to the all-time high. What I appreciated from the price driving down into the discount zone was the reaction the market gave us, it has reacted positively and that specific price region has invited investors and firms like Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) to reinforce their position and increase their Bitcoin holdings. Will the market explode as soon as the rate cuts news is released? I don't think so. The market will experience liquidity stress, especially with how the economy is holding up at the moment and the 'almost certain' news outcome to both retail and institutional. We may see spikes towards both directions, so my advice? Wait for the market to cool down once the news is released and position yourself accordingly. The news will give us a direction until the end of the year, giving you a clear bias. Trade safely and good luck to all!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Riscuit
US500: Disconnection between equity prices & broad economic dataThe US500 is trading near record highs with the index up nearly 18% over the year. The market is driven by optimism about an imminent Fed rate cut, robust Q3 earnings, and continued strength in large cap tech shares, but fundamental valuation concerns and signs of overbought technical conditions persist. Fundamental Analysis The rally is resting on expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce its first 2025 rate cut this week, likely by 25 basis points. Mega cap tech and rate sensitive sectors are leading gains, but economic headwinds remain, unemployment is ticking higher, and indicators like retail sales and leading economic indicators have weakened. Valuations among the top US500 stocks are stretched, with the top 10 names trading at a forward P/E of 30x well above historical averages and record levels of cash hoarding notably by Berkshire Hathaway are raising caution flags. Disconnection between equity prices and broad economic data is notable, with softening consumer metrics and elevated corporate bankruptcies. Technical Analysis Technical signals remain mostly bullish, as the index continues to trade within a strong uptrend and posts new highs. Short-term technical indicators such RSI show overbought conditions and weak breadth could signal fatigue. Key support is found at 6,545, then at 6,505 while immediate resistance is at the all-time high and then at projected levels of 6,630 ahead of 6,690. Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SP:SPXLong
by WiseLeoTrading
EUR/USD: Bullish Breakout to 1.20 Amid Fed Rate Cut Hype EUR/USD: Bullish Breakout to 1.20 Amid Fed Rate Cut Hype and #Fed Trends Buzz? 1.1920 Target in Sight? EUR/USD is trading at 1.1878 today, up 0.3% amid surging to a fresh four-year high as markets brace for the Fed's interest rate decision later, with expectations of a 50bps cut to 4.00-4.25% fueling dollar weakness. This comes as South Africa's Treasury eyes new Eurobonds post-$2B redemption, potentially bolstering Euro demand amid broader EM inflows. Just as #Fed racks up 12K mentions on X with rate cut speculation exploding, and #business trends highlight global bond stability (e.g., SA's move), EUR/USD's rally ties into ECB hawkishness versus Fed easing—positioning it as a high-conviction pair for September volatility. But with RSI overbought, is EUR/USD poised for a breakout to 1.20, or will a hawkish Fed surprise trigger a pullback? Let's break down the fundamentals, SWOT, charts, and setups for September 17, 2025. Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD's strength stems from diverging monetary policies, with the ECB holding rates steady at 3.50% while Fed cut bets hit 65% for 50bps today, pressuring the dollar index to 98.50 lows. Analysts forecast a potential climb to 1.1920 if cuts confirm, with 2025 averages eyed at 1.15 amid Eurozone recovery data like 0.3% Q2 GDP growth. With #Fed trends going viral on X, the pair's sensitivity to dot plot signals undervalues its upside if projections show three more cuts by year-end; however, sticky US inflation (core PCE at 2.6%) could cap gains if the Fed pauses. - **Positive:** - Fed easing expectations weaken USD, amplified by #Fed hype and SA Eurobond plans signaling global Euro appetite. - Eurozone resilience with PMI at 51.2 supports hawkish ECB, projecting 1.5% 2025 GDP growth versus US slowdown risks. - Broader trends in #business (e.g., EM bond inflows) position EUR/USD for 2%+ monthly gains if cuts deliver. - **Negative:** - Overbought conditions risk correction to 1.1762 if Fed signals fewer cuts, clashing with #Fed optimism. - Geopolitical tensions and US election uncertainty could strengthen USD as safe-haven if volatility spikes. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Policy divergence favors Euro with ECB's steady rates versus Fed cuts, amplified by #Fed relevance in weakening USD sentiment. **Weaknesses:** High sensitivity to US data; overbought momentum vulnerable in a #business-shifting market post-Fed. **Opportunities:** SA Eurobond tap boosts Euro liquidity; #Fed cut confirmation could narrow discount, with undervalued upside at current levels amid 1.5% projected 2025 appreciation. **Threats:** Hawkish Fed pivot eroding gains; competition from yen or pound if global easing synchronizes amid viral #Fed discussions. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, EUR/USD shows a bullish ascending channel breakout to four-year highs at 1.1878, with volume surging on Fed anticipation and mirroring #Fed volatility. The weekly confirms an inverse head-and-shoulders from summer lows, now extending higher. Current price: 1.1878, with VWAP at 1.1850 as intraday pivot. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 72, overbought but holding bullish—potential bounce signal amid #Fed surge. 📈 - **MACD:** Positive histogram expanding, crossover intact for upside momentum. - **Moving Averages:** Price above 21-day EMA (1.1750) and 50-day SMA (1.1650), golden cross supporting bull trend. Support/Resistance: Key support at 1.1810 (recent low), resistance at 1.1920 (Fib target) and 1.2000 (psychological). Patterns/Momentum: Channel extension targets 1.1920; fueled by #Fed momentum. 🟢 Bullish signals: Higher highs on volume. 🔴 Bearish risks: RSI divergence could prompt drop to 1.1690. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Break above 1.1920 on dovish Fed targets 1.2000; go long on pullbacks to 1.1810, especially if #Fed goes mainstream with cuts. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below 1.1810 eyes 1.1762; watch for death cross amid #Fed fade if hikes signal. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound 1.1810–1.1920 if dot plot mixed and #Fed cools. Risk Tips: Use stops at 1.1790. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify to avoid correlation traps with #Fed-linked pairs like USD/JPY. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if EUR/USD holds 1.1810, supercharged by today's #Fed and #business trends, with 1%+ upside to 1.20 on rate cut confirmation. But watch the Fed decision for confirmation—this fits September's policy divergence theme, but SA Eurobonds add supportive Euro tailwinds. What’s your take? Bullish on EUR/USD amid #Fed cuts or hedging the dip? Share in the comments!
by DCAChampion
Could Gold Repeat the 2020 Playbook After Fed Rate Cuts?Gold traders are asking whether today’s environment could trigger a move similar to March 2020, when the Fed cut rates to zero and gold first sold off before exploding to all-time highs. Here’s a breakdown of what happened then, what’s happening now, and what to watch. What happened in 2020? In March 2020, the Fed slashed rates by 100bps in an emergency move, bringing rates down to 0–0.25%. Instead of rallying immediately, gold dropped about 10% in one week. Prices fell from around $1,670/oz to $1,470/oz as investors liquidated assets in a rush for cash. The sell-off was short-lived: by the end of March, gold was back above $1,600/oz. Over the following months, ultra-low rates and massive QE fueled a powerful rally. By August 2020, gold had reached a record high of $2,067/oz. The lesson: liquidity panics can knock gold down quickly, but monetary easing and negative real yields drive strong recoveries. Today’s backdrop (2025): Rate cuts are back on the table. Markets expect the Fed to ease after holding rates high for nearly two years. Real yields are softening. If inflation stays sticky while nominal yields fall, conditions favor gold. Uncertainty is elevated. Trade tensions, debt concerns, and geopolitical risks are boosting safe-haven demand. Gold is already near record highs. Bullish momentum is strong, but stretched positioning leaves room for pullbacks. Could we see a 2020-style dip? Yes, but probably not as severe: A short-lived correction could occur if liquidity stress forces investors to raise cash quickly. Unlike 2020, central banks now have stronger liquidity tools (repo facilities, swap lines), which could soften the impact. Without an external shock on the scale of COVID-19, the drop would likely be smaller than the $200+ plunge we saw in March 2020. What to watch Fed tone – A sharper or surprise cut could spark volatility. Real yields – Declining real yields remain gold’s most bullish driver. USD strength – A weaker dollar boosts gold for non-USD buyers. Liquidity signals – Stress in credit or funding markets could trigger a dash to cash. Takeaway History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. The 2020 playbook shows that gold can dip hard on liquidity stress (from $1,670 to $1,470 in a week) before roaring back once monetary easing takes hold. Today’s setup — high debt, expected Fed cuts, sticky inflation — still favors gold in the medium term. But traders should be ready for a fast shake-out before the next leg higher. 💡 My View: Any liquidity-driven dip is more likely a buying opportunity than a trend reversal. As long as real yields soften and the Fed stays dovish, gold’s long-term trajectory remains bullish.
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by Riscuit
3
Naspers: Tencent AI Proxy Amid #AI and South Africa BondsNaspers: Undervalued Tencent AI Proxy Amid #AI and South Africa Bond Stability Trends? $80 Target in Sight? Naspers (NPSNY) ADRs are trading at $67.69 today, up 0.5% amid positive South African market sentiment following the Treasury's smooth $2 billion Eurobond redemption and hints at new issuances to replenish reserves. This fiscal resilience has spurred foreign inflows into SA bonds, with R24.8 billion net buys recently, boosting local equities like Naspers—which has rallied 34% YTD on Tencent's AI-driven rebound. As #AI trends explode with 17K mentions on X (fueled by AI video generators and drug discovery hype), and #technology buzz hits 46K amid global chip and ad innovations, Naspers' indirect 24% stake in Tencent (via Prosus) positions it as an undervalued gateway to Chinese AI growth in gaming and cloud. But with a forward P/E of 15x, is NPSNY the discounted multi-bagger ready for a push to $80, or will China risks weigh it down? Let's dissect the fundamentals, SWOT, technicals, and setups for September 17, 2025. Fundamental Analysis Naspers' value is deeply tied to its Prosus subsidiary, which holds a 24.3% stake in Tencent—valued at ~$120B against Naspers' $52B market cap, implying a 50%+ discount on sum-of-parts analysis. FY2025 results showed 21% Ecommerce revenue growth to $7B and an 18x EBIT improvement, with analysts forecasting 2025 EPS of $4.50 (up 25% YoY) amid Tencent's AI tools launch. With #AI going viral, Naspers' exposure to Tencent's programming AI and cloud positions it perfectly, undervalued at 18% below fair value per DCF amid SA's bond stability signaling economic strength. However, regulatory risks in China loom if crackdowns intensify. - **Positive:** - Tencent stake undervalues Naspers by 50%+; $12.8B buybacks enhance shareholder value amid #technology hype and AI investments. - SA Eurobond redemption boosts foreign inflows (R41.3B YTD), supporting JSE rally and Naspers' 135% 3-year returns. - Broader #AI trends (e.g., Tencent's AI tool launch) project 20%+ CAGR for holdings. - **Negative:** - China exposure risks from geopolitics, clashing with #AI optimism if Tencent growth slows. - Upcoming 5-for-1 split (Oct 6) could add volatility if retail hype fades post-event. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Massive discount to Tencent holdings (50%+), amplified by #AI relevance in gaming/cloud; strong Ecommerce profitability with 18x EBIT jump. **Weaknesses:** Heavy reliance on China assets (80%+ value); cyclical Ecommerce exposure in a #technology-shifting market. **Opportunities:** SA bond stability attracts inflows, unlocking value; #AI boom via Tencent could narrow discount to 30%, undervalued at 15x P/E amid 25% EPS growth. **Threats:** Regulatory changes in China eroding Tencent value; intense competition from global tech amid viral #AI discussions on X. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, NPSNY is in a strong uptrend, forming a bull flag after breaking $65 resistance, with volume spiking on SA bond news and mirroring #AI volatility surges. The weekly confirms higher highs from 2023 lows, now accelerating. Current price: $67.69, with VWAP at $67 as intraday pivot. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 65, bullish territory—room for upside amid #technology surges. 📈 - **MACD:** Positive crossover with expanding histogram, indicating momentum build. ⚠️ - **Moving Averages:** Price above 21-day EMA ($64) and 50-day SMA ($62), golden cross intact. Support/Resistance: Key support at $65 (recent breakout), resistance at $70 (psychological) and $80 (analyst target). Patterns/Momentum: Flag breakout targets $75; fueled by #AI momentum. 🟢 Bullish signals: Volume on inflows. 🔴 Bearish risks: Overextension if China news hits. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Break above $70 on Tencent AI updates or SA inflows targets $75 short-term, then $80 by year-end; buy pullbacks to $65, especially if #AI goes mainstream. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below $65 eyes $60 (200-day EMA); watch for regulatory cross amid #technology fade. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound $65–$70 if data mixed and #AI cools. Risk Tips: Use stops at $64. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify to avoid correlation traps with #AI-linked assets like TCEHY. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if NPSNY holds $65, supercharged by today's #AI and #technology trends plus SA's Eurobond stability, affirming its undervalued status with 18%+ upside on Tencent AI plays. But watch Q3 earnings and China policy for confirmation—this fits September's emerging market rotation amid viral tech hype. What’s your take? Bullish on Naspers amid #AI Tencent trends? Share in the comments!
OTC:NPSNYLong
by DCAChampion