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Stck Indonesia: BSDESummary View Current Price: 975 Technical Setup: Long bias with defined risk Stop: 780 Target: 1,400 Risk/Reward Ratio: ≈ 2.2x Market Insight The stock is consolidating near short-term moving averages (EMA 21 & EMA 34). Momentum is neutral, but potential for trend reversal exists if the price sustains above 1,020–1,040. Volume confirmation will be crucial. Investment Thesis We maintain a speculative BUY view for swing positioning. The technical setup offers an asymmetric risk/reward profile with a ~20% downside risk and ~44% upside potential. The long-term structure remains intact, provided the 780 support holds. Action Plan Entry Zone: 970–1,000 (after daily close above EMA cluster) Stop Loss: 780 Take Profit: 1,400 Position Size: Limit exposure to ≤2% portfolio risk Catalysts: Property sector recovery, improved sentiment on Indonesian real estate Risk Factors Sector slowdown or macro tightening may pressure valuations. Breakdown below 780 invalidates bullish bias.
IDX:BSDE
by ilhamdoang
Rolls-Royce is Going to the Moon (Literally)Its Friday night and here I am with nothing better to do than write an article on what I think is one of the most interesting companies on the market. I am absolutely enamored by Rolls-Royce for reasons I am going to explain in depth. I don't want my idea to be long and boring so I'm going to get straight to the point and explain as best as I can in a few paragraphs. There's a lot of information I want to share with you about this company so I will break the idea up into sections for an easier and more enjoyable reading experience. Normally I would start my idea writing about the intrinsic value, I'm going to skip that because this company is incredibly overvalued as per the numbers I ran. By the end of this idea hopefully you might learn something new or find value in my writing, I am writing this idea for educational and entertainment purposes. In no way does this idea constitute financial advice but rather provide you with the all the information required to make intelligent and rational financial decisions based on facts, I am not one to be speculating about the market, I prefer to have good reasons to make investments. As a capitalist, one of the most important things I think about before making a financial decision, is how does the company I am interested in make financial decisions. In this section I will write about how Rolls-Royce uses capital primarily to fund long-term strategic investments in R&D, advanced manufacturing, and new technologies (e.g., SMRs, electric systems), and for efficient working capital management to support day-to-day operations and a strong balance sheet. A significant portion of capital is invested in R&D to maintain a competitive advantage and innovate. This includes developing new engine technologies (like the UltraFan and the Pearl engine family), improving engine efficiency and durability ("time on wing"), and exploring lower-carbon solutions such as sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), hybrid-electric propulsion, and small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). Rolls-Royce invests in property, plant, and equipment. Recent examples include investments in its manufacturing facilities (such as the £300 million investment at the Goodwood facility) to enhance capabilities for bespoke projects and improve operational efficiency. The company focuses on the efficient management of short-term assets and liabilities to ensure robust liquidity and the ability to meet day-to-day expenses. Key aspects include: - Inventory management: Balancing stock levels to support production and MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) services while avoiding excess inventory. - Receivables collection and payables management: Optimizing cash flow by managing customer relations and supplier payments strategically. The business model for civil aerospace, where revenue comes from engine servicing based on flying hours (Long-Term Service Agreements), heavily influences its working capital dynamics and provides a stable cash flow stream. Rolls-Royce makes strategic portfolio choices, using capital for acquisitions in key growth areas (e.g., a yacht automation business) and using proceeds from divestitures of non-core activities to reallocate resources to higher-return segments. A primary goal is maintaining a strong balance sheet with an investment-grade profile. Once this strength is assured, capital is used for shareholder distributions, including reinstating and growing dividends and engaging in share buybacks (e.g., a £1 billion share buyback announced for 2025). Rolls-Royce is currently executing a share buyback program to return up to £1 billion to shareholders. The program was announced on February 27, 2025, and is expected to be completed no later than December 31, 2025. The buyback aims to repurchase up to £1 billion worth of shares by the end of 2025. As of July 31, 2025, £0.4 billion (£400 million) had been completed. The purpose is to reduce share capital and fulfill obligations from employee share plans, which should increase earnings per share. UBS AG London Branch is managing the purchases on the London Stock Exchange and other exchanges, operating under the authority granted at the 2024 Annual General Meeting. This share buyback is part of a larger capital return strategy, including a reinstated dividend, reflecting the company's financial turnaround. Now I will write about what I find interesting to me about Rolls-Royce; Rolls-Royce has a partnership with NASA and the UK Space Agency to develop micro-nuclear reactors for lunar habitation and exploration. While a full reactor is not yet built, the collaboration is focused on design, development, and testing phases to have a functional system ready for the Moon by the early 2030s. Key details about the partnership include; To provide a reliable, continuous, and powerful energy source for a future human lunar base, especially in permanently shadowed regions of the lunar South Pole where sunlight is scarce or non-existent. Rolls-Royce is developing a small, lightweight nuclear fission micro-reactor that measures about 1 meter wide and 3 meters long. This system would produce around 40 kilowatts (kW) of power, enough for a lunar outpost's life support, communications, and scientific experiments. Roles in the lunar program; Rolls-Royce: Responsible for the design and development of the reactor concept itself, leveraging its expertise from decades of building nuclear power plants for the UK's submarine fleet. NASA: Leads the overall Fission Surface Power project and has awarded separate contracts to multiple industry partners (including Rolls-Royce North American Technologies, General Electric, and Brayton Energy) to develop specific components, such as power converters that turn the reactor's heat into electricity. UK Space Agency: Provides significant funding to Rolls-Royce for research and development, aiming to get a demonstration model on the Moon by 2029 or the early 2030s. A conceptual model of the micro-reactor has been unveiled. The focus is currently on detailed design stages and developing power conversion technology, with an open solicitation planned for Phase 2 of the project in 2025. The technology is seen as a crucial stepping stone not only for the Moon but also for powering human missions to Mars and for potential commercial and defense applications on Earth, such as providing clean energy to remote locations. Under CEO Tufan Erginbilgiç, the company has undergone a "miraculous" transformation from a "burning platform" to a robust, cash-generating business. This has resulted in soaring profits, strong free cash flow, and a significantly strengthened balance sheet. Rolls-Royce operates in industries with high barriers to entry due to the specialized technology, safety regulations, and huge capital requirements involved. Its large, established base of engines ensures a stable stream of aftermarket revenue. Management has a history of setting conservative forecasts and then outperforming them, which suggests potential for future positive surprises for investors. In summary, Rolls-Royce offers a compelling investment case for growth oriented investors willing to pay a premium for a high-quality company with a strong competitive position and clear catalysts for future growth.
LSE:RR.Long
by Capitalist_Zach
YALLA XAUMO — GOLD (XAUUSD) | Weekly Institutional 📘 EDUCATIONAL ONLY — NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE All times Africa/Cairo (UTC+2). Report time: Sat, 08 Nov 2025 — 10:09 🟡 YALLA XAUMO — GOLD (XAUUSD) | Weekly Institutional — COMPREHENSIVE (Approved Protocol) Spot ref: 4,000.18 • GC1 (front): 4,009.8 • GC2 (next): 4,043.3 → Term spread (XCM): +0.84% → Contango — GC futures curve explainer — • Contango → GC2 > GC1 (normal upward curve; storage/carry is priced in; not bearish by itself). • Backwardation → GC2 < GC1 (near-term demand/supply stress; often bullish spot impulse). • Term spread (%) → (GC2 − GC1) / GC1 × 100 → shows curve slope/steepness. ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1) SNAPSHOT & MAP (W1 focus, using your attached GC1/GC2 & XAUMO boards) • State: Balanced / Sideways around 4,000 handle (POC ≈ 4,000–4,001). • Boxed range (cash): 3,976–4,027 (VA Low ≈ 3,988–3,990; VA High ≈ 4,010–4,012). • Immediate inflection: 4,010 (accept above → 4,027/4,034), 3,996 (accept below → 3,983/3,976). • Weekly VWAP bias: flat-to-slightly up; value building near 4,000. 2) XGM GATE MAP (where the week tends to open) • Above 4,010 gate → bullish distribution to 4,027 → 4,034/4,043. • Below 3,996 gate → bearish rotation to 3,983 → 3,976 → 3,965. • Inside 3,996–4,010 → fade the extremes back to POC (4,000 ±). 3) GC FUTURES STRUCTURE (Daily) • GC1 ~4,009.8, GC2 ~4,043.3 → mild contango (+0.84%) consistent with carry; no squeeze signal by structure alone. • Basis vs spot ~ +0.24% (spot 4,000.18) → curve not pressuring immediate spot dislocation. 4) FIB-KICKER / VOLUME MATRIX (from your boards) • Pullback magnets: 61.8% ≈ 4,004; 88.6% ≈ 4,010. • Extension magnets: 118% ≈ 4,031–4,034; 138–150% ≈ 4,056–4,075 (stretch if RVOL expands). • Volume note: rotation pockets inside 3,996–4,010; outside requires RVOL > 1.1 to sustain. 5) ICHIMOKU REGIME TABLE (directional read) • 4H: Bullish continuation, “retracement in progress.” • 1H: Mixed / tactical bearish on dips; flips bullish only above 4,012–4,016 acceptance. • 15m/5m: Buy-the-pullback bias into 4,010 when momentum > EMA(9/21). 6) VALUE MAP (POC/VAL/VAH/VWAP) • POC ~ 4,000–4,001 • VAL ~ 3,988–3,990 • VAH ~ 4,010–4,012 • WVWAP ~ flat ≈ 4,001 • Interpretation: Acceptance above VAH unlocks 4,027/4,034; failure at VAH reverts to POC then VAL. 7) XAUMO TREND MAP (confidence %) • Weekly: Sideways-up (58%) • 4H: Gentle up (55%) • 1H: Neutral→up only above 4,012 (48% below / 56% above) • 15m: Up on RVOL>1 / EMA9>EMA21 (60%) 8) KICKER PROJECTIONS (what good looks like) • Bull path: Probe 4,004 → reclaim 4,010 → build above → 4,027 → 4,034/4,043. • Bear path: Lose 3,996 → 3,988 → 3,983/3,976 → stretch 3,965 if RVOL>1.2. 9) SESSION BIAS TABLE (London/NY execution tips) • London Open (LO): Fade early sweep toward 3,996/3,988, target mean (4,000) or VAH (4,010) if momentum confirms. • pre-NY: If VAH holds support, squeeze to 4,027; if VAH rejects, short back to 4,000 → 3,996. • NY Main: Break-and-hold above 4,012 tends to run stops to 4,027/4,034; miss = chop back to 4,000. 10) CROSS-ASSET HEATMAP (from your watchlist snapshot) • VIX ~19 (calm-ish but reactive) • US30 +0.09% • NASDAQ −0.35% • XAU/EUR +0.44% • Read: Mild equity softness + steady VIX = supportive on dips if DXY doesn’t spike. 11) LIQUIDITY MAP (where stops likely sit) • Tops: 4,012–4,016 (acceptance flip), 4,027, 4,034/4,043. • Bottoms: 3,996, 3,988, 3,983, 3,976, 3,965. 12) ECON-AWARE NOTES (weekly posture) • With curve in mild contango and cash boxed at 4,000, news shocks likely decide who wins 3,996 vs 4,010. • Plan: Execute technicals; expand size only when RVOL > 1.1 and ADX (LTF) rises. 13) EXECUTION CHECKLIST HTF bias aligned? (Weekly/4H not fighting your 15m idea) Above/below gate (4,010 / 3,996) decided? RVOL > 1.1 and 9>21 EMA on entry TF? SL1 = structure + ATR(15m)×0.6; SL2 (tailgate) trails behind EMA21/VWAP band Partial at TP1; move SL1 to BE once +0.75R; trail SL2 14) TRADE SCENARIOS (examples; educational only) A) Swing (weekly box breakout) • Long 4,012–4,016 acceptance, SL1 4,004, SL2 trail 21-EMA(15m) • TP1 4,027, TP2 4,034 (runner 4,043) • Probability: 62% if RVOL > 1.1 and 1H flips up • Alt (reversal): Short 3,996 break & hold, SL1 4,004, TP1 3,988, TP2 3,976 (prob 55%) B) Edge-Fade (inside the box) • Short 4,010–4,012 rejection (bear wick / delta stall), SL1 4,016, TP1 4,000, TP2 3,996 • Long 3,988–3,996 absorption, SL1 3,983, TP1 4,000, TP2 4,010 • Probability: 58% while range persists; stand down when RVOL expands >1.2 C) Scalping (5m→15m calibrated) • Long on pullback to 4,001–4,004 with EMA9>21 & RVOL line up, SL1 3,997, TP1 4,008, TP2 4,012 • Short on fail back under 3,999 with EMA9<21, SL1 4,003, TP1 3,994, TP2 3,990 • Use SL2 tailgate once +0.6R; max hold 3–5 bars D) Continuation (momentum burst) • Above 4,027 with footprint expansion → quick run 4,034 then 4,043 • Below 3,983 with RVOL>1.3 → 3,976 then test 3,965 • Manage with SL2 trailing behind micro-swings 15) RISK MANAGEMENT (XAUMO style) • Position tiering: ½ size inside 3,996–4,010; full size only after acceptance outside the box with RVOL>1.1. • SL1 = structure+ATR buffer; SL2 = tailgate trail. If TP1 hit → lock BE, trail for TP2. • No add-ons if ADX(15m) falling and RVOL<1.0. ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ARABIC QUICK SUMMARY (ملخص عربي) • السوق متوازن حوالين 4000. البوابة لفوق 4010–4012، وتحت 3996. • سيناريو الشراء: تثبيت فوق 4012 → 4027 ثم 4034/4043. • سيناريو البيع: كسر 3996 → 3988 ثم 3976. • إدارة المخاطرة: SL1 هيكل + ATR، و SL2 تريل ورا EMA/VWAP. خُد جزء عند TP1 وحرك الباقي BE. FRENCH QUICK SUMMARY (Résumé) • Marché neutre autour de 4000. Portes: 4010–4012 (haussier) / 3996 (baissier). • Achat: acceptance > 4012 → 4027 puis 4034/4043. • Vente: rupture < 3996 → 3988 puis 3976. • Risque: SL1 structure + ATR, SL2 suiveur; prendre TP1 puis basculer BE. 🏆 Winners trade with XAUMO
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
StevenTrading – XAUUSD Next Week | Elliott Wave 5 &...⚡️ StevenTrading – XAUUSD Next Week | Elliott Wave 5 & Resistance–Support (H4/M30) 📰 Fundamental Analysis Gold holds around 4,000 USD due to safe-haven demand amid macroeconomic uncertainty. US consumer sentiment weakens; prolonged government shutdown risks increase defensive demand. The market is pricing in about a 68% chance of a Fed rate cut in December; however, USD rebounds may limit short-term gains. → Next week, prioritize disciplined trading, wait for H4 candle confirmation before expanding targets. 📊 Technical – Elliott Wave + Resistance/Support Elliott Context: Bullish scenario (short-term): wave count shows in wave 5 up if decisively breaking the 4,035–4,058 zone. Bearish scenario (medium/long-term): wave 5 down remains valid if not surpassing 4,035 and closing H4 below 3,960 (losing uptrend line). Key price zones & trendline: Resistance: 4,035–4,058 (confirmation zone for uptrend), 4,149, 4,292. Support: 4,002 (current price), 3,960 (confirmation of trend loss), 3,780 (deep target if reversal). H4 Trendline: upward, passing through the 3.92–3.96 bottom cluster; breaking trendline with H4 close below 3.960 = triggers wave 5 down. 🎯 Trading Scenarios 🟢 Bullish – Activating wave 5 up Condition: H4 candle closes above 4,035. Entry: 4,036–4,040 Stop loss: 4,020 Take profit: 4,058 → 4,149 → 4,292 Note: wait for M30 retest holding 4,035 before increasing position. Entry: 4,002–4,006 Stop loss: 3,988 Take profit: 4,019 → 4,035 → 4,058 Reason: retest price box + uptrend line, expect push to confirmation zone. 🔴 Bearish – Activating wave 5 down Condition: H4 candle closes below 3,960 (trendline break). Entry: 3,956–3,960 (retest) Stop loss: 3,976 Take profit: 3,920 → 3,885 → 3,820 → 3,780 Reason: confirm structure loss, open downward momentum towards 3.78k. ⚠️ Risks & Invalidation Invalidating buy orders: H4 candle closes below 3,988/3,960 (depending on scenario) → stop buying, wait for new structure. Invalidating sell orders: H4 candle closes above 4,058, especially holding above 4,035 after retest → stop selling, switch to waiting for a rebound buy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steven-GoldTrading
LiamTrading – XAUUSD D1 | Scenario for Week 2 of NovemberLiamTrading – XAUUSD D1 | Scenario for Week 2 of November Accumulation range 4047–3928, prioritize buying on breakout – watch for short at 4200 (FVG + Fib 0.382) Overview: After the adjustment from the historical peak, gold is forming a bottom – accumulating in the price range of 4047–3928. The D1 structure still leans towards a medium-term uptrend if the price holds above 3928; the ~4200 area coinciding with a wide FVG + Fib 0.382 is a “liquidity pool” where strong reactions are likely. Macro Summary Hedge funds against public debt/deficit risks and net buying demand from some central banks/Asian blocs support the long-term trend. The expectation of a cooling interest rate path in 2026 helps reduce pressure on gold, but pullbacks may still occur before major technical milestones. Technical Analysis (D1 Frame – Trendline | S/R | Volume zone | Fibonacci) Accumulation Range: 4047 (top of the box) ↔️ 3928 (bottom of the box). D1 closing above 4047 confirms an upper range expansion; breaking 3928 triggers a deeper drop to lower Fib levels. Fibonacci of the latest upward wave: Price is oscillating around 0.618 → tendency to form a base. Deeper area if the base breaks: 0.5 ~ 3850 and 0.382 ~ 3710. Key Resistance: 4090–4120 (mid-box area), ~4200 (FVG + Fib 0.382) – expected large liquidity/short-term reversal area. Important Support: 3990–4010 (psychological/trading buffer level), 3928 (lower range boundary – breakout point). Trendline: The medium-term uptrend remains if corrections do not close below 3928. Trading Scenario for the New Week Scenario 1 – Buy on trend when breaking the upper range Condition: D1 closes above 4047, retest holds firm at 4038–4047. Entry: 4048–4055 SL: 4018 TP: 4090 → 4120 → 4185–4205 (FVG + Fib 0.382) Management: Take partial profit at 4090/4120, move SL to breakeven when reaching +1R. Scenario 1b – Buy at the bottom of the box (fade range) Entry: 3935–3945 (when there is a clear rejection candle/tail at 3928–3945) SL: 3895 TP: 3995–4010 → 4040–4047 Note: If D1 closes below 3928, cancel the plan and switch bias to the bearish scenario. Scenario 2 – Short reaction at the liquidity area 4200 Entry: 4185–4205 (FVG + Fib 0.382) when a clear rejection appears on D1/H4 SL: 4225 TP: 4120 → 4047 → 4010 (extended target: 3850 if there is a breakdown signal) Note: Counter-trend order; reduce volume, exit quickly if D1 closes above 4205. Risk & Invalidation The medium-term bullish bias remains valid as long as D1 does not close below 3928. D1 closing below 3928 paves the way to 3850 (Fib 0.5), even 3710 (Fib 0.382). Strong news (CPI, employment, central bank speeches) may disrupt signals; wait for candle closure according to the chosen frame. Summary Gold is “spring-loaded” within 4047–3928. Priority plan: Buy on breakout–hold 4047 to target 4090–4120 and test ~4200; simultaneously watch for short reactions at 4200. If breaking 3928, switch scenario to bearish towards 3850 → 3710.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – H4 PERSPECTIVE: WAIT FOR LIQUIDITY TEST BEFORE DEEP...💛 XAUUSD – H4 PERSPECTIVE: WAIT FOR LIQUIDITY TEST BEFORE DEEP DECLINE 🎯 🌤 1. Overview Hello everyone 💬 Gold just wrapped up the week with a candle closing at the 4001 zone, after a slight increase and then holding steady within the upward channel on the H4 frame. The current sideways movement is causing many traders difficulty in finding short-term entry points. However, the 4090 zone still has an unfilled liquidity gap (FVG), which coincides with the upper edge of the price channel. This could be the next short-term target before the market adjusts for a deeper decline. From my perspective, gold might rise another step to sweep the liquidity in the upper region, then adjust back to the 3785 area – a crucial Fibonacci Retracement zone, where a strong reaction from buyers is highly likely. 💹 2. Technical Analysis 📈 The price structure is still maintaining an upward trend within the H4 price channel, with each subsequent low higher than the previous. 🟣 The 4090–4102 zone is an untested liquidity area, located at the channel peak – a high chance of a downward reaction. 🔹 Potential Buy zone around 3785–3789 coincides with Fibonacci 0.618 and a strong historical support area. 💫 Main Scenario: Price may rise to test the upper liquidity zone, then adjust down to the Buy Zone before forming a larger upward momentum. 🎯 3. Trading Plan Reference 💢 SELL Scenario (short-term) Entry: 4098–4102 ｜ SL: 4112 TP: 4078 – 4025 – 3998 – 3920 – 3875 – 3785 💖 BUY Scenario (long-term strategy) Entry: 3785–3789 ｜ SL: 3777 TP: 3810 – 3865 – 3925 – 3988 ⚠️ 4. Important Notes Prioritize short-term Sell if price reacts strongly at the 4090–4100 zone. Long-term Buy only if price adjusts deeply to the 3785–3790 zone. Avoid emotional trading – this is a liquidity accumulation phase before a major move. 🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2 Gold is on the right path of accumulation before forming a big wave 💛 Be patient and observe reactions at the two critical zones 4090 and 3785, as these could be the pivot points for the upcoming week.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
TRUMP Quant Signals TRUTH 2025-11-06════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ 💰 TRUMP TRUTH SOCIAL SIGNALS Generated: November 06, 2025 at 11:39 PM ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ 📊 5 Total Opportunities • ✅ 5 Ready to Trade • ⏸️ 0 Monitor ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ┌─ #1 ✅ NYSE:WMT • Score: 90/100 • ENTER NOW │ │ 📅 DTE: 3-7 days │ 🟢 Risk Level: Low Risk (1/10) │ │ 📰 Catalyst: Explicit mention of Thanksgiving price drop as Republican achievement │ 📊 Setup: Bullish momentum from Trump posts │ 🎯 Target: Monitor political developments │ 📈 Options: CALL options for upside exposure │ │ 💡 Trade - High conviction political catalyst │ ⚠️ Risk: Political news can reverse quickly └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ┌─ #2 ✅ NYSE:XOM • Score: 85/100 • ENTER NOW │ │ 📅 DTE: 3-7 days │ 🟢 Risk Level: Low Risk (2/10) │ │ 📰 Catalyst: Energy dominance theme and lower oil/gas prices │ 📊 Setup: Bullish momentum from Trump posts │ 🎯 Target: Monitor political developments │ 📈 Options: CALL options for upside exposure │ │ 💡 Trade - High conviction political catalyst │ ⚠️ Risk: Political news can reverse quickly └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ┌─ #3 ✅ NYSE:LMT • Score: 80/100 • ENTER NOW │ │ 📅 DTE: 3-7 days │ 🟢 Risk Level: Low Risk (2/10) │ │ 📰 Catalyst: Military and border security emphasis │ 📊 Setup: Bullish momentum from Trump posts │ 🎯 Target: Monitor political developments │ 📈 Options: CALL options for upside exposure │ │ 💡 Trade - High conviction political catalyst │ ⚠️ Risk: Political news can reverse quickly └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ┌─ #4 ✅ NYSE:CAT • Score: 75/100 • ENTER NOW │ │ Image 📅 DTE: 3-7 days │ 🟢 Risk Level: Low Risk (3/10) │ │ 📰 Catalyst: Infrastructure and manufacturing focus in trade deals │ 📊 Setup: Bullish momentum from Trump posts │ 🎯 Target: Monitor political developments │ 📈 Options: CALL options for upside exposure │ │ 💡 Trade - High conviction political catalyst │ ⚠️ Risk: Political news can reverse quickly └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ┌─ #5 ✅ NYSE:JPM • Score: 70/100 • ENTER NOW │ │ 📅 DTE: 3-7 days │ 🟢 Risk Level: Low Risk (3/10) │ │ 📰 Catalyst: Economic growth and deregulation narrative │ 📊 Setup: Bullish momentum from Trump posts │ 🎯 Target: Monitor political developments │ 📈 Options: CALL options for upside exposure │ │ 💡 Trade - High conviction political catalyst │ ⚠️ Risk: Political news can reverse quickly └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 📖 QUICK GUIDE: ✅ ENTER NOW → High probability setup, optimal timing, low-medium risk ⏸️ WAIT → Monitor for better entry or catalyst resolution 🟢 Low Risk → Heat 1-3 (stable, far from catalysts) 🟡 Med Risk → Heat 4-6 (moderate volatility) 🔴 High Risk → Heat 7-10 (near catalysts, high volatility) 💎 Position Sizing: 2-5% per trade • Max 2-3 concurrent positions 🎯 Exit Strategy: Take profit at 50% max gain or stop at 2x loss ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by quantsignals
Digital Dominates the Market and Old Methods Fall Behind1. The Rise of the Digital Era The digital era began with the advent of computers and the internet but truly accelerated with smartphones, artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and automation. These technologies didn’t just improve existing systems; they created entirely new ways of doing business. Digitalization allowed information to flow faster, decisions to be data-driven, and processes to be more efficient. For instance, e-commerce giants like Amazon, Alibaba, and Flipkart have replaced traditional brick-and-mortar stores as dominant retail forces. Customers now shop online, compare prices instantly, and get deliveries at their doorsteps — conveniences that were unimaginable two decades ago. Similarly, in finance, digital payment systems like UPI, PayPal, and cryptocurrency have made cash transactions almost obsolete in many regions. 2. Speed and Efficiency: The Core of Digital Dominance One of the most significant advantages of digital systems is speed. Digital tools can process massive amounts of data in seconds, something manual systems could never achieve. Businesses can now analyze trends, predict demand, and make instant adjustments in pricing or supply chains. For example, algorithms in stock markets execute millions of trades per second, optimizing profits based on market data — a task that human traders simply cannot match. In logistics, GPS tracking and automated warehouses ensure timely deliveries and reduced operational costs. Efficiency is also enhanced through automation. Robots, AI chatbots, and machine learning systems perform repetitive tasks, allowing human workers to focus on creativity and strategy. This blend of automation and intelligence has become the new norm in production, healthcare, and customer service. 3. Data: The New Currency In the digital world, data is power. Every click, purchase, and search generates valuable data that companies use to understand consumer behavior. This information helps businesses personalize products, target advertisements, and improve customer satisfaction. Old methods relied on surveys or assumptions to gauge customer preferences, which were often inaccurate or outdated. Today, real-time analytics tools like Google Analytics, Meta Ads Manager, and CRM platforms provide detailed insights within minutes. As a result, companies can make evidence-based decisions instead of relying on guesswork. For instance, Netflix uses viewer data to recommend shows, while Spotify curates music playlists using AI algorithms. These personalized experiences are key to retaining customers in the digital marketplace. 4. The Fall of Traditional Business Models Traditional business methods, which depended heavily on manual labor, paperwork, and face-to-face interactions, are struggling to compete in a digital-first environment. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this shift — businesses without a digital presence suffered major losses or closures, while those that embraced technology thrived. Brick-and-mortar retail stores have been replaced by online platforms. Newspapers are losing readers to digital media outlets and social networks. Even traditional banking, once reliant on in-person visits, has moved online through mobile banking and fintech apps. Moreover, digital marketing has replaced conventional advertising. Television and print ads are losing relevance as companies turn to social media, influencer collaborations, and targeted online campaigns to reach audiences more effectively. 5. Global Connectivity and Market Expansion Digital technology has eliminated geographical barriers. A small business in India can sell products to customers in Europe or the U.S. through online platforms. Social media allows brands to build global reputations, while digital payment systems and logistics networks simplify international trade. Old methods, which relied on local marketing and limited reach, could never achieve this level of global exposure. Today’s startups can scale faster than ever before because the digital world provides instant access to millions of potential customers. 6. Innovation and Adaptation: The Key to Survival In this digital-dominated market, innovation is the ultimate survival strategy. Companies that fail to adapt risk becoming irrelevant. Kodak is a classic example — once a photography giant, it fell behind because it ignored the rise of digital cameras. Similarly, Nokia, a leading mobile manufacturer, lost market share after failing to adapt to smartphone technology. In contrast, businesses that embrace digital transformation, like Apple, Tesla, and Google, continue to lead their industries. They innovate continuously, leveraging AI, machine learning, and automation to stay ahead of competitors. The lesson is clear: technology evolves rapidly, and only those willing to evolve with it can sustain success. 7. Digital Transformation in Key Sectors a) Finance: Fintech innovations have revolutionized banking. Digital wallets, online trading platforms, and blockchain technology have reduced dependency on traditional banking. b) Education: E-learning platforms like Coursera and Byju’s have replaced conventional classrooms for millions, offering flexibility and accessibility. c) Healthcare: Telemedicine, AI diagnostics, and wearable devices now monitor patient health remotely, reducing hospital visits. d) Manufacturing: Smart factories use IoT (Internet of Things) and robotics to enhance production efficiency. e) Media and Entertainment: Streaming services have replaced cable television, and social media has become a primary source of news and engagement. Each of these sectors illustrates how old systems fade as digital tools redefine efficiency and user experience. 8. The Challenges of Digital Dominance While digital transformation brings numerous benefits, it also presents challenges. Cybersecurity threats, data privacy concerns, and the risk of automation-driven unemployment are major issues. Small businesses often struggle to afford the technology required to stay competitive. Furthermore, digital dependence can lead to inequality — regions with poor internet connectivity or digital literacy may fall behind economically. Hence, governments and organizations must focus on digital inclusion and cybersecurity to ensure a balanced digital future. 9. The Future: A Fully Digital Ecosystem Looking ahead, the world is moving toward complete digital integration. Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and blockchain will dominate future innovations. Physical money may vanish, replaced entirely by digital currencies. Autonomous vehicles, smart cities, and virtual reality workplaces are becoming realities. The Internet of Everything — where every object is connected — will redefine how people live and work. Old methods will not disappear entirely, but they will become niche or nostalgic alternatives rather than mainstream options. 10. Conclusion The dominance of digital technology marks one of the most profound shifts in human history. It has redefined efficiency, speed, and accessibility while transforming every aspect of business and daily life. Traditional methods, though valuable in their time, can no longer meet the demands of an interconnected, data-driven economy. In the digital age, adaptation is not optional — it is essential. Those who embrace change, invest in innovation, and harness the power of data will lead the future. The world has entered an era where the digital dominates the market, and the old methods, while respected, inevitably fall behind.
NASDAQ:NFLXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
ESPR 1W: cholesterol therapy for patients and investors alikeEsperion Therapeutics (ESPR) has broken its long descending trendline and retested the $2.4–$2.6 support area, forming a solid triple bottom with rising volume. The stock is now holding above key moving averages, signaling accumulation. While above $2.5, the technical setup points to a move toward $6.4, aligning with major resistance and the 200-week MA. Fundamentally, the company enters one of its strongest phases in years. Following earlier liquidity struggles, Esperion has stabilized its operations and regained investor confidence. The core growth driver is Nexletol (bempedoic acid), a non-statin cholesterol-lowering therapy for patients intolerant to statins. In 2025, combined Nexletol and Nexlizet sales jumped over 45% year-on-year, surpassing $170 million for the first nine months. Recent safety data were positive, leading to new approvals across Europe and Japan - expanding partnerships and licensing revenues. Cash position strengthened via milestone payments from Daiichi Sankyo and Viatris, reducing debt and supporting R&D without new dilution. Challenges remain: profitability is still out of reach, as marketing and development expenses stay high, though liquidity provides breathing room. The broader biotech sector’s rebound amid rate-cut expectations adds tailwind to revenue-backed small caps like Esperion. Tactically, holding above $2.5 keeps the bullish trajectory intact toward $6.4. A weekly close below $2.3 would negate the setup and re-test lower support, though current accumulation favors the upside. Esperion helps reduce cholesterol - ironic that its chart still raises investors’ heart rate.
NASDAQ:ESPRLong
by TotoshkaTrades
MSTR: The Software Company That Gave Up on SoftwareMSTR The Next Barings Bank - Short to Zero MicroStrategy (MSTR) stopped being a software company years ago. They couldn't grow revenue, so Michael Saylor found a new pitch: leverage the entire company to buy Bitcoin and sell the "vision" to retail investors. The Revenue Reality: 2015: $529.87M revenue 2021: $510.76M revenue (DOWN after 6 years) 2023: $496.26M revenue 2024: $463.46M revenue TTM: $474.94M revenue Ten years. NEGATIVE revenue growth. When you can't grow your actual business, you pivot to selling a pipe dream. That's exactly what Saylor did. The Ponzi Structure Here's the model: Borrow billions to buy Bitcoin Bitcoin goes up (hopefully) Stock goes up because you "own Bitcoin" Issue more stock at inflated prices Buy more Bitcoin with diluted shares Repeat until it breaks The problem: They have no control over Bitcoin long-term. They can move it short-term with their buying, but in reality? They're passengers on a volatile asset with $7.26B in debt. The Numbers Don't Lie Balance Sheet Explosion: Total debt 2019: $0 Total debt 2024: $7.26B Total assets jumped from $4.76B (2023) to $25.84B (2024) - all Bitcoin Revenue declining while taking on billions in debt Operating Performance: Net income 2024: -$1.17B (loss) Net margin: -3,797% (you read that right) Operating income: -$63.12M (negative) Free cash flow 2024: -$66.51M (-780% change) EBITDA 2024: -$24.53M The actual software business is dying while Saylor pumps Bitcoin on Twitter. Barings Bank 2.0: The Nick Leeson Parallel In 1995, Nick Leeson was a derivatives trader at Barings Bank. He bought Nikkei futures at the 40-year top, kept doubling down to cover losses, and hid everything in error account 88888. Result: 233-year-old bank collapsed in weeks. Michael Saylor is doing the exact same thing: Leveraged to the tits buying Bitcoin near tops $7.26B in debt on a declining software business No way out if Bitcoin crashes The interest payments alone will kill him The market already knows: While Nasdaq hits all-time highs, MSTR is 50% off its highs. That's not a dip. That's the market pricing in the collapse before it happens. The Technical Setup Current price: ~$269 Key breakdown level: $230 If $230 breaks: Next stop: $180 (support from previous consolidation) Then: $114 area (major support zone) Ultimate target: $0 Why these areas matter: $230 = Last line of defense before panic selling $180 = Where late buyers give up hope $114 = Pre-Bitcoin-mania valuation (actual software business worth) $0 = When the debt spiral becomes unsustainable Chart pattern: Classic distribution. Lower highs, weakening momentum, while indices rip higher. The Catalyst: Bitcoin Goes Into Crypto Winter When Bitcoin cracks (see my other post on October 10th liquidation): The death spiral: Bitcoin drops 50%+ MSTR's "asset base" collapses Debt-to-equity ratio explodes Credit downgrades trigger margin calls Forced liquidation of Bitcoin holdings More Bitcoin selling accelerates crypto winter MSTR goes to zero Saylor's only escape: Bitcoin stays elevated forever AND he can keep issuing diluted shares to cover debt payments. Reality: Neither of those things will likely to happen. The Pipe Dream They're Selling "We're a Bitcoin treasury company!" No. You're a failing software company with declining revenue that gambled the entire operation on a volatile asset you can't control. You can't control Bitcoin's price long-term You can't control regulatory changes You can't control macro conditions You can't control when crypto winter comes You're just holding bags with $7.26B in debt. The Short Thesis Entry: Current levels ($269) or breakdown below $230 Targets: First target: $180 Second target: $114 Ultimate target: $0 Stop loss: Above $320 (invalidation if Bitcoin makes new highs and MSTR participates) Timeframe: 6-18 months for full thesis to play out Catalysts: Bitcoin entering crypto winter (foundation cracked October 10th) Credit downgrades Forced Bitcoin liquidation Revenue continues declining Debt payments become unsustainable Risk Factors What could go wrong with this short: Bitcoin has a blow-off top before winter Saylor successfully issues more diluted shares at elevated prices Retail continues buying the "Bitcoin exposure" narrative Some institution bails him out (unlikely) Why I'm short: The math doesn't work. You can't have: Negative revenue growth for a decade $7.26B in debt No control over your primary asset Negative operating cash flow ...and survive when that asset drops 70-80% (which it will). The Comparison 1995: Nick Leeson buys Nikkei futures at 40-year top Doubles down with borrowed money Hides losses in account 88888 Collapses 233-year-old Barings Bank 2025: Michael Saylor buys Bitcoin near all-time highs Leverages entire company with $7.26B debt Pumps Bitcoin on Twitter while software business dies About to collapse MSTR History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. Final Word The market is telling you everything you need to know: Nasdaq: All-time highs Bitcoin: Near all-time highs MSTR: Down 50% from highs When the asset you're leveraged on is strong, and the indices are strong, but YOUR STOCK is down 50%... The market is pricing in collapse. MSTR → Zero #MSTR #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoWinter #ShortSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #Leverage #DebtCrisis
PYTH:MSTRShort
by onlytrade2win
1
ICPUSDT - many positive indicators!The coin ICP has pumped nearly 160% in just one week, and believe it or not — all that move happened without even breaking out of the accumulation range it’s been forming for over 275 days. So imagine what will happen once it finally breaks out! The high volume and bullish indicators on the chart suggest that this coin’s minimum target is around $30, meaning roughly a 5x potential from the current level. It has already broken above the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance, broken the main trendline (marked in blue), and even formed a Golden Cross pattern. It’s still inside the accumulation zone for now, so this is your early entry opportunity — because once it breaks out, you won’t catch it again. Mark my words. Best Regards: Ceciliones🎯
Long
by ceciliones
10
XAU/USD – Holds Its Range, Preparing for a Year-End Expansion🔍 Market Context Friday’s New York session closed with a two-sided liquidity sweep, yet gold managed to hold its structural balance, maintaining the same rhythm seen over the past two weeks — sideways to mildly bearish, but firmly supported. This behavior shows that buyers are still defending key zones, especially around 3,940$ – 3,980$, which MMFLOW highlighted multiple times last week as the decisive liquidity floor. From a macro lens, the Fed’s cautious tone has slowed expectations for aggressive rate cuts — but the probability of another reduction before Q1 2026 remains alive. As we move toward the final stretch of the year, thinner liquidity and seasonal safe-haven flows could help gold establish a mid-term bottom, setting the stage for the next impulsive leg. 📊 Technical Structure (H4) The current chart presents a clear 5-wave recovery structure within a tightening range — a classic setup before expansion. Key Technical Zones: • 💎 Support Zone: 3,942$ – 3,982$ (liquidity base + strong absorption area) • 🎯 Wave 3 Target: 4,072$ – 4,133$ (first reaction zone) • ⚙️ Extended Target / Wave 5: 4,189$ – 4,201$ (Fibo 1.618 projection) • ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,940$ → loss of short-term structure, possible re-accumulation lower. The structure remains sideways but constructive, and a confirmed breakout of the descending trendline could act as the catalyst for a year-end bullish continuation. 🎯 MMFLOW TRADING View Smart money continues to accumulate within equilibrium zones, with every liquidity sweep appearing more like preparation than rejection. As long as gold stays above 3,970$, the bullish bias remains valid — with a 60%+ probability of a move toward 4,130$+ in the short to mid-term. Historically, November–December often brings portfolio rebalancing and policy easing cycles, both of which may serve as fuel for a potential gold rally into Q1 2026. ⚜️ MMFLOW Insight: “Accumulation isn’t waiting — it’s when big money quietly builds the next wave.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
SPX: Bear Markets and Complacency Oh boy, we are here, about to have “the talk”. Didn’t think this would come up until 2026, but alas we are. It’s a loaded talk so get ready. Bear markets, or less triggering, corrective markets. What about them, you may ask? I am going to talk about the prospects of a bear market for the S&P starting right now. Like today. Like November of all times. I am also going to talk a bit about complacency in markets which snagged me bad this week. So get ready for some theory, analysis, application and market lessons/reflection, all in one post! First off, bear markets. How do you identify them? This is the million-dollar question! How do you identify bear markets? The truth is, they are mostly impossible to determine reliably, even with the most robust fundamental and technical analysis combined! The approach I take to “preparing” for bear markets is usually on the fundamental side over everything else! It’s a bit of a hybrid, fundamental math, but traditionally what I use is simply the US money supply. It has served me well over the years and even prepared us for that correction we saw in early 2025, if you follow me and remember these posts: Essentially by analyzing how far the value of the S&P is over the US Money supply, and creating a cointegrated relationship. Traditionally, I would use R to do this, but in my mission to bring more statistics to Pinescript, I no longer need to rely on R to provide the analysis, as the Econometrica indicator now exists ( available here ). Using this indicator, we can take a look at SPY and SPX against the US money supply: We can see that historically SPX has traditionally corrected over-extension through reverting back to the US Money Supply mean, or more technically the cointegrated relationship that exists of SPX value over US money supply value. However, currently, SPX is the farthest it has ever been above the US money supply. Nuts! If we look at SPY: Nuts! Additionally, we know that this is still relevant because despite SPY and SPX being so far above the US money supply, the Correlation and, more importantly, the R2 remains really high. Indicating that a substantial degree of variance of SPY can be explained by the US Money supply. SPY and SPX can attempt to ignore it, but it will do so in vein because at the end of the day, the pair are two peas in a pod and inseparable. We know this from the strong correlation and R2 value of the cointegrated regression. If you don’t believe it, simply watch and read my previous ideas that were posted about a month or two before we saw SPY and SPX tank >20% in the span of a month! It generally works, its just, timing is difficult. Other, easier ways to identify bear markets: There is no other way I have found with statistical rigour. Some of the worst performing ways are using EMAs. For example, the average distance from the daily EMA 200 SPY and SPX will travel before a bear market starts is 7 to 9%. However, of the 7 to 9% distance, only 6% of these are true lead ins to bear markets. That’s because, SPY and SPX spend a great degree of time between 7 to 9% away from the EMA 200. Other ways like quantifying magnitude between bull and bear market cycles is more promising, though equally problematic. Studying magnitude between bear and bull markets (i.e. the percent gain from the bear market low to the bull market high prior to the next bear market) ranges from 4% to up to 100%, with the average being around 42%. Currently, SPY and SPX would be at 43.5% from its bear market/corrective cycle low: And peaked at about 10% away from the EMA 200: While these in silo are not helpful, seeing the confluence of signals does lend some potential rigour. In this case, we are incredibly over-extended from the US Money supply, we have surpassed the EMA threshold and we are >= the average bear – bull market cycle threshold. So there is that. The last way is by creating a time series model that calculates the mean, and analyzing behaviour at various distances from this mean historically. I have had hit or miss success with this. This is not so predictive of actual bear market onsets, but it is 100% reliable for target prices (again, if you follow me, the calling of the 481 target price on SPY during the crash was thanks to this approach). Lets talk about Bear markets in November They’re rare. Very rare. They have been known to happen but in extremely rare circumstances. This is because November seasonality is incredibly strong. November is one of the best performing months for the S&P and many stocks as a whole! If you ask some generic AI about bear markets starting in November, it will likely spit out 1980. Ah yes, the 80s. November 1980. While people were innocently doing aerobics while listening to Blondie, they never fathomed the -27% decline that awaited their markets, despite booming economies and AAPL coming to town (mind you, the big release was in 1984 when the market was healthy but apple still very much existed here). But why am I talking about this so much? Who cares about 1980. Well, yeah, that’s what I thought until I noticed something that peaked my interest. Let’s take a look at 1980: Notice anything? If not, don’t worry, here is it again with some reference: And if we are still not really feeling it: Interesting. I was intrigued by the similarity, so I had to test it mathematically to ensure that it wasn’t just a coincidence. To do this, I pulled monthly data from SPX and isolated January 1980 to November 1980. I then ran a regression on this data against January 2025 to November 2025 (bearing in mind November just begun). The results were: Correlation: 0.918 (Strong positive relationship, meaning that the trend is identical between the periods). R2: 0.843 (Meaning that 3/4s of the variance and movement of 2025 can be explained using 1980 monthly data). Comparing it against a random year (in my testing case, January 1984 to November 1984), I got a correlation of 0.468 and an R2 of 0.219, indicating no strong link and no explanation of variance. This verifies that this is not just some visual anomaly, there is actually some substance to this theory of the 80s. And why not? I mean, I see people rocking 80s hair cuts again on a daily basis, why not rock 80s markets while we are at it! So then the question that arises from this is, okay, larger timeframe, sure, it explains the data a bit. But does it really align on the smaller timeframe (i.e. Daily timeframe)? Does it align well when we narrow the picture? Well, for this, I tried it. And oh boy, buckle up. Because we are comparing tit for tat, side by side, same days etc. without missing data (i.e. for the monthly, we ran the analysis with most of November data missing), we have the following results: Correlation: 0.9444 R2: 0.8918 Its unreal. Had we known we could have predicted every single move SPX made this year! EVERY. SINGLE. MOVE. Hindsight is so annoying. Now, because I am not a fundamental analyst, as I like to say, its time to cite some AI. Gemini is my preferred. So lets ask him/her what they think about the results: “The strong correlation on the daily timeframe provides a high degree of confidence that the factors (macroeconomic, technical, or psychological) that drove the market trajectory in the first 214 trading days of 1980 are similar to those driving the 2025 market. This gives you a strong justification for using the remainder of the 1980 price data as a projection or probability model for the rest of 2025. ” So now my logical question is “ Well, how do the fundamentals of 1980 compare to today ”? And this is what Gemini has to say about that: The Central Theme: Inflation, Rates, and Recession Fear The S&P 500's price action in 1980 was fundamentally shaped by the confluence of three major forces, all of which have strong parallels today: 1. High and Volatile Inflation • 1980 Reality: This was the peak of the "Great Inflation" era. Inflation was incredibly high, peaking near 14% in the early part of the year, driven by oil price shocks following the 1979 energy crisis. This forced consumers and businesses to constantly adjust expectations. • 2025 Parallel: While not at 14%, the post-pandemic inflation shock has been the worst in four decades. Prices have remained sticky, particularly in services, and have proven difficult to bring down to the Fed's target, leading to persistent uncertainty. 2. Aggressive Monetary Policy • 1980 Reality: Paul Volcker, the Federal Reserve Chairman, was implementing radical, Volcker-shock policies to crush inflation. This involved driving interest rates to unprecedented levels (the Federal Funds Rate hit 20% in 1980). The market volatility reflected the uncertainty of whether the Fed would succeed and how much economic pain it would inflict. • 2025 Parallel: The Federal Reserve has conducted the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in four decades. The debate has continuously centered on whether the Fed is "done," whether they will "pivot," and whether the current high rates are sufficient to induce the necessary slowdown without causing a severe recession. 3. Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty • 1980 Reality: The economy was officially in a recession in the first half of 1980. Geopolitically, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian hostage crisis created massive global instability, which directly impacted energy prices and market sentiment. • 2025 Parallel: While the economy has been resilient, the persistent fear of an imminent recession remains a dominant theme. Geopolitically, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to pose supply chain risks and put upward pressure on energy and commodity prices, mirroring the external shocks of the 1980s. Oh man, where was AI many moons ago? So, what happens next? I want to assert something. I am not calling for a bear market here. I like to dabble in statistical analysis and I would be wrong to not have a discussion about this, in light of what I see and what is happening. That said, there are still reasons to be bullish: From a fundamental perspective, seasonality remains bullish and bear markets starting in November remain a rarity. We also have, according to my projections, a high probability target up at 710 on SPY leading us into the end of December, with a historic hit rate of 87%. We have, as well, the prospects of a Santa rally happening. If you recall my last idea on SPY, Santa rally’s happen on SPY around 75% of the time. But what can we do with the information about 1980? The simple answer, is we can observe and we can model. We can model an adjusted forecast based on the remainder of 1980 using current prices of SPX. And we can observe. We can observe the correlation and R square as time progresses to see if we are following the trajectory to the same degree and closeness as we are currently. For the first one, the forecast, I am sure you are wanting this and wanting to observe it with your own eyes, so I went ahead and did the forecast in R. Here are the results: As you can see, its mostly sideways. Though SPX made a new high after this point before coming down more. Timelines may be skewed however, which is why the R squared is 0.89 and not 1 (perfect). So, sell it? Maybe. I think, the key take away here, is exercise caution here. A Note on Complacency I want to give a quick note on the dangerous of complancency, even from the most experienced traders. I have been trading since 2018, and, for some reason, this year which has been incredibly bullish, I have just become complacent. Buying the dips and not thinking too much about it. Traditionally, I would analyze all options, pay attention to all metrics and weigh forecasts and statistics equally. However, this year I have massively slipped into just mindless, buy buy buy trading. This week was a wake up call for me, since it did not go as expected. It was also avoidable, since half of my stuff indicated the week was turning bearish. I chose to ignore in favour of being complacent and airing on the side of irrationality. Trading can and is a grind. Its is a job if not worse than a job. Its not always enjoyable. But the one thing that is different about a job is when you cut corners trading, you will for sure pay the price. Whereas, with a job, you may get off the hook. Be vigilant. Take breaks. And never corner cut! It’s a very important lesson for most! Don't be lazy, laziness breeds complacency. That’s it. This doesn’t count as my weekly post, so don’t worry because I didn’t share any analysis for next week haha. Safe trades everyone and thanks for reading!
SP:SPX
by Steversteves
5
Eth/Usd - Rejection Setup Targeting $3,250Ethereum is currently trading around the $3,435 zone, testing a strong resistance area between $3,450–$3,500. Price has previously rejected this zone multiple times, forming a clear double-top pattern. The support zone sits near $3,220–$3,260, where buyers have stepped in several times before. Unless ETH breaks above resistance with strong volume, a pullback toward the support zone remains likely. Bias: Bearish below $3,450 Target: $3,250 Invalidation: Break and close above $3,500
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by Hamza_Gold
USD/JPY Analysis — Short-Term Bearish CorrectionPersonal Trade Idea Fundamental: Despite Japan’s low interest rate (0.5%) versus the Fed’s 4%, which favors a stronger USD, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has weakened dollar sentiment. Market confidence is slipping, creating room for a short-term bearish correction on USD/JPY while the broader trend remains fundamentally bullish. Technical: On the 4H timeframe, structure has turned bearish following a liquidity sweep and market structure shift (MSS). Price is now pulling back on lower timeframes (15M) toward a small Fair Value Gap (FVG) in 4H. A reaction from the marked zone on 3H TF could trigger the next bearish continuation leg. Outlook: Bias: Short-term bearish Key Zone: 3H AOI / 4H supply Setup: Wait for rejection confirmation before shorting
by SOL_FX
3
The Great Rising WedgeAltcoin market structure mirrors a macro rising wedge; the same bearish pattern that preceded the 2022 crash. A weak recovery after a sharp selloff, now forming on a higher timeframe, signals distribution before collapse. Technicals align with macro risk: • U.S. debt > $35T, credit cards and real estate at record highs. • Berkshire Hathaway sits on $350B in cash. • Michael Burry holds $1.1B in AI-related puts. • Open interest and leverage across markets are extreme. This setup reflects late-cycle euphoria; similar to 1999 (dot com) and 2008 (housing). The wedge is not just a chart pattern; it’s a symptom of systemic exhaustion. If history rhymes, we’re nearing a global liquidity event where “blood in the streets” becomes reality again.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSShort
by osamaadi