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Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin Bottom 2026We expect a cyclical market correction from 06th October 2025 to Q4 2026, driven by stress in the US financial system. Within institutional asset allocation frameworks, Bitcoin continues to be classified as a high beta risk asset. In an environment of liquidity tightening, such positions are typically reduced first. This dynamic can result in market driven price declines, independent of the long term structural growth narrative for digital assets. The core assumptions are: 1. Heightened risk aversion will lead to capital outflows from crypto assets. 2. Correlation to high growth technology equity markets is expected to remain elevated. 3. A pricing corridor for Bitcoin in the range of approximately USD 55,000 to 65,000 is a plausible outcome under these conditions. Once the Federal Reserve transitions into an easing cycle with lower policy rates and potentially renewed balance sheet expansion, risk appetite historically re-emerges. Capital rotation then moves back into higher volatility segments, positioning Bitcoin and related digital assets at the forefront of the next upward market phase.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by NXAnalyse
Risk‑off vs squeeze: the near‑term BTC plan__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ After a swift capitulation into 99–100k, the market is stabilizing on a 12H/1D floor cluster. The regime is mixed: HTFs remain constructive, while ETF outflows and a risk‑off backdrop cap momentum. Momentum: Bearish-neutral 📉 short term, stabilizing above 101.6–102.1k after capitulation‑type volume. Key levels: - Resistances (D/2D) : 103,800–104,063 (D Pivot High), 105,000–105,500 (intraday supply), 109,377 (2D Pivot High). - Supports (12H/1D/MTF) : 101,616–102,102 (1D/12H floors), 99,700–100,100 (multi‑TF cluster + D Pivot Low 100,267), 98,150–98,613 (2H floor + weekly pivot). Volumes: Very high intraday (capitulation) and normalizing on 1D. Multi-timeframe signals: 1W/1D/12H trend up; LTFs repairing. Hold 101.6–102.1k to target 103.8–104.1k; failure reopens 99.7–100.1k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Neutral sell — aligns with risk‑off macro and partially contradicts the bounce attempt. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Context: HTF uptrend versus macro risk‑off; favor tactical buys at supports and avoid chasing breakouts without confirmation. Global bias: Neutral with a tactical buy tilt while 101.6–102.1k holds; key invalidation: sustained close < 101,616. Opportunities: - Buy confirmed pullback at 101,616–102,102 (≥2H/4H bullish) targeting 103.2k then 103.8–104.1k. - Breakout buy above 104,063 (D close) toward 105.0–105.5k, then 109,377 if momentum persists. - Tactical sell at 103.8–104.1k on clean rejection, or break/retest below 101,616 toward 100.3k then 99.7–100.1k. Risk zones / invalidations: Break below 101,616 voids the bounce path and opens 99.7–100.1k; strong rejection at 104k invalidates early longs. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Persistent spot BTC ETF outflows — cap upside under resistance. - Broad risk‑off (Asia equities down, firm USD) — pressure on supports. - FOMC: -25 bps and QT ending flagged — rate‑volatility, choppy tone. Action plan: - Entry: 101,650–102,150 after bullish confirmation (≥2H/4H). - Stop: ~0.7–1.0% below 101,616 (≈100.9k–100.6k). - TP1: 103,200–103,400; TP2: 103,800–104,063; TP3: 105,000–105,500. - Approx R/R: ~2R to 3R depending on fill/stop. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs remain upward while LTFs repair around the 99.7–100.1k and 101.6–102.1k floor clusters. 1D/12H/1W: Uptrend; price sitting on the 101.6–102.1k cluster. Holding it = stabilization and a path to 103.8–104.1k; daily reclaim above 104,063 opens 105–105.5k then 109,377. 6H/4H/2H: Rebound from 99–100k with very high volume implying local seller exhaustion; first gate 103.8–104.1k, confirmed on closes > 104,063. 1H/30m/15m: Basing above 100k; need a clean reclaim of 102.0–102.8k to extend; time failure if no push within 1–2 bars. Major divergences/confluences: Bullish confluence at MTF floors + capitulation volume; divergence with the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator (neutral sell) — execute with tactical prudence. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is risk‑off with unfavorable ETF flows, likely capping bounces under 104k despite constructive HTFs. Macro events: Asia equities lower and a firm USD weigh on risk; BOJ remains easy; FOMC: -25 bps and QT ending flagged — more rate vol; US shutdown headlines keep liquidity cautious. Bitcoin analysis: Weekly “make‑or‑break” band at 101k–103k; large short liquidations above could fuel a squeeze on a decisive reclaim, yet ETF outflows limit upside follow‑through. On-chain data: Mixed accumulation, softer derivatives, hedging up — stability hides fragility absent fresh inflows. Expected impact: Prefer reactive buys at floors and demand daily closes > 104,063 before chasing breakouts. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is parked in a 101.6–104k decision zone, between sturdy MTF supports and a flow‑capped ceiling. Overall trend: neutral (HTF up vs macro risk‑off). Most relevant setup: tactical buy at 101.6–102.1k with scaled profit‑taking below 104k, or a confirmed breakout above 104,063. Key macro factor: persistent spot ETF outflows. Stay disciplined: act on floor signals and avoid unconfirmed breakouts.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Gold might prepare for the pullbackGold is consolidating in a coil within the dynamic support area (the area of between 20 and 50 moving averages), and had reversed to the upswing after 4 consecutive closes below the intermediate-term low. If the upswing will be posed for continuation, we might see the price soaring in the next couple of days. Gold now is extremely volatile, so be careful with timing and stop-placement. Bullish scenario is more favorable, as volatility of equities (VIX) grow, and the technical position of Gold is within the potential support. Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own reserch and never forget to manage your risk!
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
Kraken Robotics (TSX-V: PNG) - Swing TradeSwing Setup PNG.TO — Swing Trade Breakdown Kraken Robotics (TSX-V: PNG) is a Canadian marine technology company developing sonar and underwater robotics systems used in defense and offshore energy. The stock has exploded off its 52-week lows, driven by strong order flow and renewed interest in small-cap defense tech. It’s now showing a clean momentum setup with defined support and resistance levels for swing traders. 📊 Fundamentals Kraken trades at roughly 92× earnings, far above the small-cap tech average (20–30×), meaning growth expectations are already baked in. The price-to-book is around 14×, showing limited book value support. On the positive side, ROE sits near 17% with debt-to-equity at only 0.3, so leverage is low. However, free cash flow is still negative (~-13 M CAD) and the company relies on reinvestment for growth. Cash reserves around 33 M CAD provide a liquidity cushion. Overall, Kraken is a high-growth, high-valuation play — decent profitability but no margin for execution mistakes. 📈 Trends & Catalysts Revenue has climbed roughly 30% YoY (to about 90 M CAD), while EPS turned modestly positive (~0.06 CAD). That growth has investors rotating into the name, but negative operating cash flow remains a concern. Recent catalysts include: • New contracts in sonar and subsea battery systems • Expanding demand from naval and defense clients • Broader rotation into small-cap tech and defense innovation plays Main risks: valuation stretch, execution in complex defense contracts, and persistent negative FCF. 🪙 Industry Context Marine robotics is a small but rapidly growing niche. Over the past year, PNG has surged more than 200%, massively outperforming the TSX Tech Index. Sentiment has shifted bullish after years of stagnation, and the stock remains a micro-cap momentum magnet — but prone to sharp corrections. 📐 Technical View PNG is trading near 5.69 CAD, well above its 50-day SMA (~5.00) and 200-day SMA (~3.50) — confirming a strong uptrend. Momentum cooled after a sharp run, with RSI2 at 1.94, resetting from short-term overbought conditions. The 5.50–5.60 CAD zone is now acting as support (former breakout base), while 7.40 CAD marks the key resistance at the recent high. Volume spikes during rallies suggest institutional accumulation — but expect volatility. 🎯 Trade Plan I’m watching for a pullback entry around 5.50–5.70 CAD, which aligns with the 20-day EMA and prior consolidation range. Stop-loss sits near 5.00 CAD, just below structural support. Initial target is 7.40 CAD, offering roughly a 1.2:1 R/R, extendable toward 8.00+ CAD if momentum continues. Alternatively, a breakout above 6.70 CAD on strong volume could trigger a momentum continuation setup for active traders. 🧠 My Take Kraken is in a confirmed uptrend with strong sector tailwinds and visible contract growth. Valuation is aggressive, but momentum remains intact. This is a high-beta swing trade, not a long-term hold — I’m looking for a disciplined entry near support or a confirmed breakout, keeping risk tight and respecting volatility. Bias: Bullish above 5.50 CAD, targeting 7.40 CAD+ Invalidation: Close below 5.00 CAD
TSXV:PNGLong
by SwingTraderKev
Bitcoin Daily Analysis #11 – November 05, 2025 Scared? 😅 Good — pay close attention to how you feel these days and journal everything. The most valuable financial lessons come exactly from moments like these. 📖 As you can see, Bitcoin is under heavy selling pressure, and its sharp drop around the $100,000 zone has so far been supported by buyers. If that support breaks again, you could consider opening a short position, but ⚠️ don’t hold it too long — the overall trend remains bullish, and a strong rebound could follow. Around $104,000, we might see a risky long trigger, but only with tight risk management and a controlled position size. If Bitcoin tests $104,000 and gets rejected, a deeper correction or even a sharp drop could follow. We’re in a phase where the market could swing both ways — once it breaks out of this uncertainty, expect a powerful move. ⚡ Macro data and recent economic news still favor Bitcoin, and interestingly, during this decline, the big players have mostly stayed on the sidelines, with lower-than-average trading volume. 📈 No matter which way Bitcoin moves, your risk management will determine your success. 🎯 So avoid emotional decisions and let the chart structure guide you. 📊 Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. © DIBAPRISM Larry D.Kohn
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DibaPrism
DXY & final liquidityFundamental Analysis : Based on the current macroeconomic backdrop, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be entering a short-term corrective move to the upside, potentially toward the 100–101 liquidity zone, before resuming its broader bearish trend. This aligns with the visible Head & Shoulders structure and the small Quasimodo (QM) zone that’s likely to attract liquidity before a larger downside move. Short-Term View (Correction Toward 101): Recent U.S. employment and retail sales data have shown relative strength, leading markets to delay expectations for Fed rate cuts. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have seen a mild recovery, prompting short-term dollar demand as investors rebalance risk exposure. The Federal Reserve’s “data-dependent” stance keeps the market uncertain ahead of the next inflation releases, providing a temporary bid for the dollar. ➤ This corrective phase corresponds to the small QM zone (100–101) where liquidity collection and retesting of previous resistance are likely. Medium- to Long-Term View (Bearish Reversal After 101): Core inflation (PCE) continues to trend lower, approaching the Fed’s 2.5% target range. Labor market softness is becoming more visible through higher unemployment and slowing wage growth. The probability of rate cuts beginning in early 2026 is increasing, which would significantly reduce the dollar’s yield advantage. Meanwhile, other major economies (Europe, China, Japan) are stabilizing, which could rebalance global demand away from the USD. Additionally, rising U.S. government debt and fiscal deficit concerns are weighing on real yields and long-term dollar sentiment. ➤ These factors suggest that once liquidity is collected near 101, DXY could begin a new bearish leg toward the 95–92.5 demand zone. The current upward move in the dollar is likely a final liquidity grab before the next major decline. From a fundamental perspective, this aligns with short-term resilience in economic data, followed by an eventual shift toward monetary easing and weaker growth momentum — perfectly in line with technical scenario.
TVC:DXY
by mehdi_kb
Monthly Metals Analysis:Silver (XAGUSD), Issue 211 The analyst expects XAGUSD’s price to rise by the specified end time, based on quantitative analysis. The take-profit level only indicates the potential price range during this period — it’s optional and not a prediction that price will reach it. You don’t need to go all-in or use leverage to trade wisely. Allocating just a portion of your funds keeps overall risk minimal. Our approach follows institutional portfolio principles — not the all-in or blow-up trading style often seen on social media. Results are measured over the full time window, regardless of whether the take-profit level is hit. The validity of this analysis is based on a specific time range (until 03 Dec 2025), and after this period, the analysis will be reviewed and updated (once every 28 days).
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by MoonriseTA
Monthly Metals Analysis: Gold (XAUUSD), Issue 211 The analyst expects XAUUSD’s price to rise by the specified end time, based on quantitative analysis. The take-profit level only indicates the potential price range during this period — it’s optional and not a prediction that price will reach it. You don’t need to go all-in or use leverage to trade wisely. Allocating just a portion of your funds keeps overall risk minimal. Our approach follows institutional portfolio principles — not the all-in or blow-up trading style often seen on social media. Results are measured over the full time window, regardless of whether the take-profit level is hit. The validity of this analysis is based on a specific time range (until 03 Dec 2025), and after this period, the analysis will be reviewed and updated (once every 28 days).
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by MoonriseTA
When Does Progress Move Backward?UniQure N.V. experienced a catastrophic 75% stock plunge in November 2025 following an unexpected FDA reversal on its Huntington's disease gene therapy, AMT-130. Despite having received Breakthrough Therapy Designation and Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy designation, the company learned during a pre-BLA meeting that the FDA now considers its Phase I/II data, which relied on external controls from the Enroll-HD natural history database, insufficient for approval. This contradicted prior regulatory guidance and forced UniQure to abandon its planned Q1 2026 submission, immediately destroying billions in market capitalization and rendering near-term revenue projections obsolete.   The regulatory reversal reflects broader instability within the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER), where leadership turnover and philosophical shifts have created systemic uncertainty across the gene therapy sector. New CBER leadership, particularly Director Vinay Prasad, favors traditional evidence standards over accelerated pathways that rely on surrogate endpoints or external controls. This policy hardening invalidates development strategies that biotechnology companies had pursued based on previous regulatory assurances, demonstrating that breakthrough designations no longer guarantee acceptance of innovative trial designs.   The financial consequences extend beyond UniQure's immediate valuation collapse. Every year of regulatory delay erodes patent exclusivity. AMT-130's patents expire in 2035, directly destroying net present value. Analysis suggests that a three-year delay could render 33-66% of rare disease therapies unprofitable, and UniQure now faces the prospect of funding expensive randomized controlled trials while operating with negative profit margins and declining revenues. The company's only viable hedges involve pursuing approval through European regulators (EMA) or the UK's MHRA, where regulatory philosophies may prove more accommodating.   This case serves as a critical warning for the entire gene therapy sector: accelerated approval pathways are contracting, single-arm trials using external controls face heightened scrutiny, and prior regulatory agreements carry diminishing reliability. Investors must now price significantly higher regulatory risk premiums into biotech valuations, particularly for companies dependent on single assets and novel trial methodologies. The UniQure experience confirms that in biotechnology investment, regulatory predictability, not just scientific innovation, determines commercial viability.
NASDAQ:QUREShort
by UDIS_View
Pi Coin Price Approaches $0.20 — Another Sideways Phase?Pi Coin’s price has declined by nearly 16% over the past week after failing to breach the $0.260 resistance. At the time of writing, the altcoin is trading at $0.220, reflecting its weakening technical position amid fading market support and declining investor optimism. If the downward trend persists, Pi Coin’s price could fall below $0.209 and reenter a consolidation zone between $0.209 and $0.198. This pattern, seen previously, could stall recovery attempts and extend the bearish phase for a few more weeks. However, a bounce from current levels could shift momentum. If Pi Coin reclaims $0.229 as support, it could attempt a rally toward the $0.246 resistance. Sustaining inflows and investor interest will be critical to invalidating the bearish outlook.
by BeInCrypto
Bitcoin Losses Hit 9-Month High Of $24 Billion Amid 8% Price DroBitcoin is trading at $101,729 at the time of writing, sitting just above the critical $100,000 support. Earlier, BTC slipped below this level, forming an intra-day low of $98,966 before rebounding slightly. The recent 8% drop has validated a head-and-shoulders pattern, which projects a potential 13.6% decline targeting $89,948. However, if investors begin buying at lower levels, Bitcoin could bounce from $100,000 and retest $105,000 or higher. Conversely, continued selling pressure and weak market conditions could send BTC below $100,000 again. A breach under $98,000 may lead to further losses toward $95,000 or lower, undermining any short-term recovery hopes.
by BeInCrypto
1
AUDCAD November 2025 fundamental analysisAustralian Dollar (AUD): Inflation Surprise Supports Hold Reserve Bank of Australia Stance The Australian Dollar received a powerful boost from the September quarter inflation data released on October 29, which delivered a significant upside surprise. Headline CPI accelerated to 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, well above the RBA's 2-3% target midpoint. More importantly, the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure climbed 1.0% quarterly (beating 0.8% expectations and the RBA's August forecast of 0.6%), pushing the annual rate to 3.0%—the first uptick since December 2022.​ RBA Governor Michele Bullock had explicitly stated earlier in the week that a 0.9% quarterly rise in trimmed mean inflation would be viewed as a "material miss". At 1.0%, the threshold was decisively crossed. Bullock also described the labor market as "a little tight" despite unemployment rising to 4.5%, and emphasized the RBA's unwillingness to "leap at a single number".​ Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back The inflation surprise has dramatically reshaped rate cut expectations. The November 4 meeting confirmed the decision to hold rates steady for the moment, and the first 25 basis point cut has been delayed from February 2026 to May 2026. This represents a stark shift from earlier expectations for near-term easing. The RBA cash rate remains at 3.60%, providing a substantial yield advantage over other major central banks.​ November Outlook: Very Bullish The Australian Dollar is the clear standout for November strength. AUD/USD surged to a three-week high of 0.6607 following the inflation data, and technical analysis suggests further upside potential toward 0.6706. The currency benefits from multiple tailwinds: delayed rate cuts relative to other central banks, particularly the Fed; buoyant risk sentiment following the preliminary US-China trade framework; and strong commodity prices, including copper near three-month highs. Against the weaker commodity currencies like CAD and NZD, the Australian Dollar is exceptionally well-positioned.​ Canadian Dollar (CAD): Economic Headwinds and Continued Easing Bank of Canada Policy The Bank of Canada delivered another 25 basis point rate cut at its October 29 meeting, bringing the policy rate to 2.25%. This continues an aggressive easing cycle that has seen rates reduced by 225 basis points since June 2024, from a peak of 4.50% to the current 2.75%. Markets are pricing in current easing for the October meeting despite recent data showing 60,000 employment gains and headline inflation rising to 2.4%.​ Economic Challenges The BoC's dovish stance is driven by persistent concerns about the Canadian economic outlook. The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed that uncertainty around trade policy continues to weigh heavily on investment and hiring plans. The "future sales" indicator dropped back into negative territory for the first time in 2025, and 63% of firms expect either unchanged or reduced workforce levels—levels historically associated with unemployment rates of 7.3% or higher.​ Canada's terms of trade have deteriorated significantly, with crude oil prices falling to multi-month lows. WTI crude is trading around $59-60 per barrel, down from earlier highs, removing a key pillar of support for the loonie. November Outlook: Bearish The Canadian Dollar faces a challenging November. USD/CAD has moved higher to the 1.40 handle, and while some analysts expect a return to 1.38 by year-end driven primarily by USD weakness, the path may be slow with potential spikes to 1.41. The loonie is expected to underperform against most G10 currencies, given the BoC's continued easing path and Canada's vulnerability to weak energy prices. Verdict Given these grave fundamental divergences between AUD and CAD the current assessment for AUD/CAD is a clear BUY .
Long
by Oneirotrade
USD/CAD pair It's currently very bullish- the bullish trend currently feels very strong on this pair, I like it for a longer period of time cause USD It's getting bullish against other currencies and CAD shows quite week on the chart - A very nice opportunity for the current month with adding new long positions after the corrections based on previous long trend - After Wednesday rate cuts the USD will just continue to get stronger against the CAD and other currencies let me know also your opinion in the comments bellow.
Long
by Marcel_Platon
1
MY THOUGHT AND SHORT VIDEO ABOUT GOLD📊 XAAUSD Analysis – CMP Zone Setup I expect XAAUSD to test the zone, based on my CMP (Current Market Price) technique — a method I use to identify potential reaction areas and key levels from a technical perspective. 🔍 Technical Outlook: Price is approaching a CMP zone that may act as a reaction point. I’ll be monitoring closely for a bearish engulfing pattern as confirmation before entering a trade. 🎯 Trade Plan: Stop Loss: 50 pips Take Profit: 1:2 or 1:3 R:R Setup Type: CMP Reaction + Engulfing Confirmation ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal technical view and is not financial advice. Always do your own research before taking any trade.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by CAELANproptrader