BULLISH ANALYSIS GOLD (SMC)🇺🇸 PROFESSIONAL BREAKDOWN
(XAU/USD – 15M: Accumulation → Manipulation → Rejection → Expansion into 1H FVG)
🔸 1. Accumulation Phase
Price developed a clean range where liquidity was built on both sides.
This is the foundation of the eventual institutional move.
🔸 2. Institutional Manipulation (Fake Out)
A sweep above the consolidation highs confirms the classic liquidity grab.
This fake breakout is a signature SMC behavior before a directional move.
🔸 3. ChoCH + BOS
After the sweep, price prints:
• a Break of Structure, and
• a Change of Character
Clear confirmation of bullish intent.
🔸 4. Rejection Zone
The current pullback shows early signs of a bullish rejection pattern, pointing toward a potential retest of the buy zone.
🔸 5. Buy Setup at 4,068
Your BUY level is placed precisely where support, demand and previous imbalance converge — a high-probability entry zone.
🔸 6. Stop-Loss Updated: 4,036
The 8-pip buffer gives protection from typical gold volatility.
🔸 7. R/R 1:2.8
The new setup maintains a realistic and well-structured risk-to-reward:
• TP1: 4,111
• TP2: 4,150
Both levels align with liquidity pools and the unmitigated 1-hour FVG above.
🔸 8. 1H FVG Mitigation Expected
The unfilled imbalance above is a strong magnet, reinforcing the bullish projection.
🌟 Motivational Message
“Mastery comes from repetition and refinement. Every chart tells a story — and you’re learning to read it with institutional precision. Keep going.” GOOD LUCK TRADERS
Fundamental Analysis
Seagate's AI Advantage: Powering the Exabyte EconomySeagate Technologies (NASDAQ: STX) exhibits powerful technical and fundamental momentum. Its stock has doubled over the last year, driven by its unique positioning in the surging Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout. Seagate can deliver AI-capable hard drives (HDDs) at scale for the data center industry like no other competitor. The company's future success depends on its massive capacity storage solutions, which are critical for training AI models and inference processes. This robust outlook propels strong support from major institutional investors and a bullish analyst consensus.
Technology, High-Tech, and Patent Analysis
Seagate's competitive edge rests on its Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology. This innovation, branded as the Mozaic 3+ platform , dramatically increases areal density, enabling massive capacity gains and superior cost-per-terabyte efficiency compared to older technologies.
Seagate's foresight places it ahead of its primary competitor, Western Digital, in this generational technology transition . The company's patent strength in this domain ensures a sustained technological advantage, crucial as high-density HDDs remain the cost-effective backbone for the majority of exabyte-scale AI data storage.
Industry Trends and Business Models
The AI boom fundamentally reshapes the data storage industry. AI models require enormous, cost-effective storage for training datasets, making high-capacity HDDs indispensable. Seagate's business model focuses intensely on mass-capacity, nearline drives for hyperscale cloud providers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, etc.) and AI innovators like NVIDIA and OpenAI. Build-to-order (BTO) contracts with these major customers secure revenue streams and provide demand visibility well into 2026, mitigating cyclical risks previously inherent in the storage market.
Management & Leadership in Strategic Growth
Management demonstrates effective strategic pivoting, focusing on value capture and improved operational leverage. The successful and rapid commercialization of the Mozaic 3+ HAMR drives confirms strong execution in the product roadmap. Leadership forecasts management-defined gross margins to increase to nearly 40% in 2026. These margin improvements, driven by the higher profitability of next-generation drives, highlight a commitment to disciplined growth and improved operational efficiency.
Macroeconomics and Balance Sheet Inflection
The global macroeconomic environment for data center expansion remains robust, fueled by the multi-trillion-dollar AI Supercycle. This secular tailwind significantly boosts demand for Seagate's mass-capacity products. Seagate's balance sheet quality is improving after past challenges with debt and losses. Strong cash flow, driven by surging AI demand, enables debt reduction and improved financial health. This pivot is expected to increase shareholder value by improving financial flexibility and supporting future dividend increases.
Corporate Culture, Innovation, and Shareholder Value
The company culture prioritizes innovation through long-term investment in core storage science, evidenced by the 20-year development of HAMR. Beyond stock appreciation, the company's *b]$2.96 annualized dividend acts as a catalyst for long-term shareholders. Seagate currently pays less than 35% of its earnings, providing ample room to increase the distribution pace, offering both growth and income potential as earnings surge.
Market Sentiment and Institutional Support
Market sentiment strongly favors the stock, marked by a Moderate Buy consensus from a growing number of analysts. Key technical indicators, including high trading volume and MACD convergence , signal strengthening market momentum. Furthermore, institutions own over 90% of the stock and have been consistent net buyers throughout 2025. This institutional support provides a rock-solid base and sets the stage for a potential year-end rally to new all-time highs.
Victory Capital - Short Price is under the 50 SMA → downtrend, sellers in control.
62.5–63 is strong resistance → every bounce gets rejected.
Lower highs & lower lows → bearish structure.
Red candles have stronger volume → sellers dominate.
Weak bounce after liquidity sweep → no real reversal.
Risk-reward favors downside → more room to fall than rise.
Do You Know Bitcoin and Nasdaq Have a 92% Correlation?* Most traders still believe Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 belong to two different worlds — one is “digital currency,” the other is “US tech stocks.”
- But in reality, Bitcoin and Nasdaq have nearly 92% positive correlation (based on past +10 years data).
The current market movements are showing signs of a market crash on the way...........
- See for arounf past 10 years, Bitcoin stayed above the tech index.
- It was the month of Nov only in 2015, when Bitcoin crossed above Nasdaq on the chart
After 10 straight years - Its 2025 & the month of November itself
- And Bitcoin has slipped below Nasdaq, forming its first bearish crossover in a decade.
This is a major shift.
- When a long-term leader loses momentum, it often signals deeper structural weakness — not only for Bitcoin, but for the entire risk-on ecosystem.
- Remember, Nasdaq & Bitcoin has over a 92% correlation
- And US tech industry is brewing a bubble somewhere - where the epicenter lies in the AI sector
A crash in one will sink the other with it
Checkout the chart (Nasdaq Futures & Bitcoin Weekly)
GBP/JPY: An Unusual Ascent Amid Global RiskThe GBP/JPY pair currently sits near 204.00, retracing from a six-week high. This movement reflects a complex tug-of-war between the Pound Sterling (GBP) , which faces uncertainty from upcoming UK inflation data, and an uncharacteristically weak Japanese Yen (JPY) . We analyze the diverse forces driving this pair's recent unusual ascent, where the JPY fails to act as its traditional safe-haven counterweight.
Macroeconomics & Monetary Policy Divergence
The immediate market focus centers on divergent monetary policy expectations. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces pressure to align its policies with fiscal objectives, potentially limiting future rate hikes. This uncertainty, coupled with the new government's plan for large economic stimulus and lower taxes, dampens JPY demand. Conversely, the Bank of England (BoE) awaits crucial UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to show headline inflation moderating to *b]3.6% annually. This data will significantly influence the BoE's rate hike outlook, injecting caution into GBP trading ahead of the 07:00 GMT release.
Geopolitics & Geostrategy: The Taiwan Factor
A key reason for the JPY's recent underperformance is a shift in geopolitical sentiment toward Japan. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi adopted a firmer pro-Taiwan stance than her predecessors, triggering unease in Beijing. This heightened political tension weighs heavily on sentiment surrounding Japan, effectively diluting the Yen's traditional safe-haven magnetism against global risk. This specific anxiety overshadows the Yen's long-term status as the principal global currency counterweight.
Fiscal Policy & Economic Outlook
Concerns about Japan's fiscal health are also eroding the JPY's strength. The government is preparing a large economic stimulus package to boost growth. This spending raises concerns among investors worried about Japan's already stretched finances . These fiscal anxieties add direct pressure to the currency, making the JPY less attractive despite the current risk-off environment observed in global equity markets. This fiscal trajectory contrasts with the Bank of Japan's potential monetary hesitancy.
Industry Trends & Corporate Vulnerabilities
Corporate Japan's deep integration with the US technology sector presents another vulnerability. Many major Japanese companies maintain significant earnings exposure to the health and performance of the US tech boom. Corporate vulnerabilities tied to the US technology cycle are eroding the JPY’s traditional safe-haven appeal. Consequently, negative headlines or wobbles on Wall Street disproportionately mute the Yen's response, preventing it from rallying when global equities come under pressure.
Management, Innovation, and Patent Analysis -
While not an immediate driver, Japan's long-term currency strength relies on its competitive edge in high-tech and science . The current vulnerability suggests that the market is discounting the perceived innovation premium of corporate Japan. Traders see a connection between the dependency on US tech and a potentially lagging pace in domestic, cutting-edge patent analysis and independent industry leadership. Weak corporate sentiment reflects doubts about resilience and adaptive business models under new management.
Conclusion for Strategic Hedging
The Yen's uncharacteristic weakness creates a unique setup. The currency is behaving out of character relative to the worsening risk backdrop. This anomaly presents tactical opportunities for hedgers with exposure to the Yen. However, this phase is likely temporary. Japan’s enormous net international investment position and its central role in funding global carry trades mean the Yen's safe-haven DNA remains intact. If global markets experience a sharper, sustained downturn, expect the traditional gravitational pull into the JPY to reassert itself.
PLUG: recharged on the retest, or another fork with no voltage?PLUG tapped perfectly into the 1.85–2.00 zone - a clean confluence of the MA200, the ascending daily trendline, and the main support that launched the summer rally. Oscillators dipped into oversold, candles show buyer tails, and volume confirms defense of the level. As long as price holds above the trendline, the bullish scenario stands: breaking above 2.70 opens 3.36, and a move above 3.36 targets 4.58. The extended target at 6.56 requires a full breakout from the broader accumulation range.
Company: Plug Power is one of the key players in hydrogen fuel-cell technology, producing electrochemical systems, electrolyzers, and industrial energy solutions for logistics, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
Fundamentally , as of November 19, Plug remains pressured but gradually stabilizing. OPEX continues to decline, manufacturing efficiency improves, and the company expands partnerships in the green hydrogen ecosystem. Revenue volatility persists, but contraction slows, while new electrolyzer deployments build the future pipeline. Scaling production decreases unit costs, and margin improvements suggest the company is climbing out of the worst phase. Policy support and industrial demand keep hydrogen a long-term thematic growth story - though near-term risks remain.
Technically , the bullish structure holds above 1.85–2.00. A breakout above 2.70 activates 3.36, and strength above 3.36 brings the 4.58 target into play. Losing the MA200 risks a prolonged range, but current reaction shows buyers stepping in with precision.
Plug pretends it's collapsing, but really - it’s just plugging itself in for the next run.
BECO - PSX - Buy CallFundamentally, this is cash rich company and therefore, all likelihood that it would perform much better than its peers. This SCRIPT has the potential of 2X in one year time.
One can buy it now as well as if it retraces a bit. On daily TF, AB=CD pattern has been drawn. Fib ext has been used to identify TPs.
It is ideal for SWING trading spanning over at least 8 months for substantial gains.
GBPUSD H4 – Trading IdeaGBPUSD is consolidating after a clear BOS on the H4 structure, and price is slowly drifting back toward the demand zone / Order Block located around 1.3055–1.3020.
Market is still respecting bullish structure overall, and the clean imbalance below suggests price may sweep liquidity and tap the H4 OB before delivering the next leg up.
Buy Zone (Preferred Entry):
1.3055 – 1.3020 (H4 Order Block)
Stop Loss:
Below 1.2990
Targets:
• TP1: 1.3180
• TP2: 1.3280
• TP3: 1.3350 (Full mitigation of the imbalance above)
Why this setup?
• Market Structure Shift + BOS confirms bullish intent
• Unmitigated H4 Order Block with clean liquidity resting below
• Price currently correcting in a controlled manner, showing signs of accumulation
• Large H4 imbalance above gives strong upside targets
S&P 500: At a Technical CrossroadsThe S&P 500 index (the S&P 500 futures contract in this analysis) is currently at a decisive technical inflection point. After several months of sustained progress since the March/April decline, prices are now retesting a key area where several dynamic supports converge: the daily Ichimoku cloud, the 50-day moving average (SMA 50) and, lower down, the 200-day moving average (SMA 200), which meets the former all-time high of 6,150 points. This confluence of indicators makes the current period a true moment of technical truth for the U.S. equity market and the GAFAM stocks.
The first element to monitor is the holding of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe, which has so far acted as a support zone during consolidations. A clear break below this structure would be significant: it would indicate the loss of medium-term bullish momentum and open the door to a deeper correction, similar to the technical scenario that occurred at the end of last February.
In the event of a breakdown, a pullback toward 6,200 points appears plausible. This corresponds to the area of the former all-time high of the S&P 500 — now a major support — and represents the most coherent technical pivot for a correction lasting several sessions. At this stage, this support has not been broken, so its breach should not be anticipated; only the daily close matters.
The current configuration is also accompanied by weakening momentum indicators: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been declining for several weeks, confirming a classic bearish divergence at the end of a trend.
All this occurs in a context of very high valuations for the S&P 500, with multiples leaving little room for error and making the index more vulnerable to technical adjustments. When fundamentals are stretched, chart levels play a pivotal role: a bearish technical signal can trigger a rapid realignment of prices toward more fundamentally sustainable levels.
For now, buyers remain in control as long as the price stays above the cloud and the SMA 50. But the zone being tested right now potentially represents the last line of defense before a more pronounced correction.
The market is therefore truly at a crossroads: either a valid rebound resumes the bullish trend, or a breakdown opens the way for a return toward 6,200 points, a major level for the underlying long-term uptrend.
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EURUSD waiting for upcoming newsEURUSD is holding around 1,1580 again, with no change in structure and no clear movement.
Today and tomorrow, key news releases from the U.S. are expected, which will likely increase volatility and set the next direction.
Watch for the reaction and the formation of a higher low before any potential bullish move.
GBPCHF → Countertrend correction. Retest of resistance FX:GBPCHF is testing key resistance at 1.0515 as part of a countertrend correction. Bears are behaving quite aggressively in the current market...
The global trend is downward. After retesting the local bottom, the currency pair is forming a correction to the previously broken consolidation border.
The key area of interest is 1.0515, and bears are trying to hold it. The battle for the zone has been going on for several hours. In extreme cases, a retest of 1.054 is possible before a decline.
A false breakout of resistance (consolidation border) is forming as part of a countertrend movement...
Resistance levels: 1.0515, 1.0542
Support levels: 1.0486, 1.0443
If the bears keep the price below 1.0515, completing the reversal pattern, this could trigger a further decline. Otherwise, the currency pair may form a short squeeze and test 1.0542 before declining...
Best regards, R. Linda!
BAC 2008 Flashback CrashAs we enter into what looks like a nasty 2026 recession, Bank Of America does a 19 Year Double Top.
Banks are struggling with liquidity, tapping into the Repo Market with record volume, giving 2008Flashback Crash Signals.
THERE IS NO LIQUIDITY in the Reverse Repo. Offices are empty across the globe as we work from home, but who's holding the bill?
Banks.
See ya.
XAUUSD – HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN FORMING ON H4💛 XAUUSD – HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN FORMING ON H4 🎯
🌤 Overview
Hello everyone, it's Lana here again 💬
Gold, after a strong decline, is forming a clear Head and Shoulders structure on the H4 timeframe, following a long-term upward trendline. This pattern allows us to expect a rebound to the old peak area, but before that, the price may "dip" down to complete the structure.
💹 Technical Analysis (ICT Perspective)
The Left Shoulder – Head – Right Shoulder is gradually completing around the trendline + supporting FVG.
The area around the 50% Fibonacci above is a reasonable zone for the price to form the right shoulder, and if it breaks above the neckline, it could pave the way back to the strong liquidity area above 4200.
In the short term, the 4118–4120 area is both resistance + the neckline of the pattern, suitable for a technical Sell.
The 4040–4042 area coinciding with the trendline + OB is a nice support to watch for a Buy if the price adjusts deeply.
🎯 Reference Trading Plan
💢 SELL Scenario (scalping at resistance)
Sell 4118–4120 │ SL: 4125
TP: 4105 → 4086 → 4060 → 4040
💖 BUY Scenario (priority according to the pattern)
Buy 4042–4040 │ SL: 4034
TP: 4075 → 4090 → 4100 → 4140 → 4200
⚠️ Important Notes
Trading according to the pattern is just an expectation trade, so it should be combined with candle signals on smaller timeframes (M15–M30) before entering a trade.
The upcoming FOMC meeting and NFP report, after a prolonged US government shutdown, could lead to very unpredictable volatility.
Reduce volume, avoid holding large positions through major news events.
🌷 Conclusion with LanaM2
The Head and Shoulders pattern on H4 is opening up beautiful opportunities for both short Sell and Buy according to the larger trend 💛
Be patient and wait for the price to reach the marked areas, be disciplined with SL, and don't FOMO before the news.
If you find this useful, please 💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 to update the gold perspective with me every day ✨
Gold is going to new ATH ?
1. **Significance of This Week**: The upcoming week is crucial for price trends in gold.
2. **NFP News Impact**: Scheduled Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) news on Thursday is anticipated to significantly influence market direction.
3. **Trading Strategy**: It may be wise to wait for the NFP report before making trading decisions.
4. **Price Prediction**: If the NFP data comes in weaker than expected, there may be a potential for gold prices to rise, possibly reaching new all-time highs (ATH).
5. **Key Price Levels**: A price range of $3,800 to $4,000 is critical; if the price holds above this level, it could lead to further increases.
Let me know if you need any further analysis or insights!
GRAB 1D - picking phones off the market floor again?GRAB pulled back exactly into the 4.90–5.10 buy-zone, where the wedge retest aligns with the MA200 - a major technical cluster that previously launched strong impulses. Oscillators show deep oversold conditions, candles print buyer tails, and the first resistance sits at 5.35, matching the 0.618 retracement. A breakout above 5.35 opens the path toward 8.65 (1.618), and a move above 6.80 could initiate a larger rally toward 11.92 based on the 2.618 extension.
Company: Grab Holdings is Southeast Asia’s largest super-app platform, combining ride-hailing, food delivery, fintech, payments, and micro-lending across Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Fundamentally , as of November 19, GRAB continues to strengthen: gross profit and GMV grow, operational efficiency improves, and both ride-hailing and delivery segments have reached sustainable profitability. Fintech is expanding at double-digit rates, margins improve as subsidies are reduced, and operating losses continue to shrink. Cash flow strengthens, the path to full profitability is visible, and the overall digital-services boom across Southeast Asia remains a long-term driver for growth. Competition cooled, monetization improved - exactly то environment the company needed.
Technically , the bullish scenario holds as long as price stays above 4.90–5.10. A breakout above 5.35 activates the 8.65 target, and the major upside - 11.92 - becomes realistic once price gets above 6.80. A drop below 4.80 complicates the picture, but current structure still looks like a controlled reset rather than a trend break.
Grab acting like usual: discounts first, acceleration later - Southeast Asia likes this script.
Breakout in progress
GALT is starting a breakout after reporting good news at the AASLD liver conference for the #1 untapped market for big pharma, liver cirrhosis.
There is prior industry precedent that a buyout could send the stock price into the triple digits.
Why GALT’s Fibrosis Data Are Better Than Any Other MASH Company
1. They are showing fibrosis improvement in true compensated cirrhosis (F4) — the population where EVERY OTHER DRUG HAS FAILED.
Almost all other “great” fibrosis results in MASH come from F2–F3 populations (Akero, 89bio, Madrigal).
Fibrosis moves easily there. But in biopsy-confirmed F4 cirrhosis with portal hypertension, fibrosis essentially does not reverse in modern trials.
This is why Gilead, Intercept, NGM, Novartis, Genfit, and Madrigal all failed in this population.
GALT is the first to repeatedly show biomarker improvement AND fewer clinical events in compensated cirrhosis.
No other company has done that.
2. The magnitude of fibrosis-biomarker improvement is unusually large and consistent across ALL major antifibrotic markers.
At 18 months (NAVIGATE):
• Pro-C3 reduction: >50% vs baseline
This is the main “fibrogenesis” marker.
Competitors usually get ~20–30% reduction in easier F2–F3 patients.
• ELF score: clinically meaningful drop
Again, competitors rarely get ELF improvement in cirrhosis.
• FibroScan liver stiffness: improved
Liver stiffness almost always worsens in F4 patients.
Belapectin produced improvement.
• YKL-40 / other collagen markers: improved
Indicates reduced macrophage-driven scarring.
What’s unique:
Other companies may improve one marker (e.g., ALT, MRI-PDFF, or PRO-C3),
but GALT shows simultaneous improvement across the entire fibrosis parameter set in cirrhosis.
That has not been replicated by any other company.
3. Only GALT has shown a link between fibrosis biomarkers → portal pressure improvement → fewer cirrhosis complications.
This is the reason the field is paying attention.
HVPG (portal pressure) improvement
Belapectin produced meaningful drops in HVPG — the FDA’s gold-standard surrogate for preventing variceal bleeding, ascites, transplant, and death.
No other MASH drug has ever shown a consistent HVPG improvement in cirrhosis.
Reduced clinical progression
Belapectin-treated patients developed fewer new esophageal varices, which is the #1 warning sign of impending decompensation.
This matches the HVPG signal.
It matches the biomarkers.
This “full chain” alignment is unmatched:
Fibrosis biomarkers improve
Portal pressure decreases
Varices occur less often
Disease stays compensated
Other companies haven’t shown this chain — not even close.
4. The 36-month follow-up CONFIRMED the benefit keeps going — something almost no MASH drug has ever shown.
At 36 months:
• New varices incidence: 12.4% at 2 mg/kg vs 23.4% placebo
The advantage persisted for 3 years.
This is extremely rare in cirrhosis.
• Biomarker improvements remained stable
PRO-C3, ELF, liver stiffness all stayed improved.
Durability is critical:
Many drugs show an early signal that disappears later.
Belapectin’s signal strengthens with time.
No other MASH drug has shown a 36-month antifibrotic durability signal with matching clinical outcomes.
5. Mechanistically, belapectin is the only drug directly targeting activated macrophage–galectin-3 fibrosis architecture.
Other drugs target:
Fat reduction (Madrigal)
Metabolic pathways (89bio, Akero)
FGF signaling
Lipid metabolism
Inflammation
Those help in F2/F3 — but not in F4.
Belapectin targets the scaffolding of fibrotic architecture itself by inhibiting galectin-3 on activated macrophages.
This mechanism explains why:
• GALT works in cirrhosis but others fail.
• Biomarker improvements line up across every fibrosis marker.
• HVPG drops.
• 36-month clinical progression slows down.
It’s the right mechanism for the right stage of disease.
6. The field desperately needs a drug for compensated cirrhosis — and GALT is alone.
Every other company is fighting over:
F2/F3
Early fibrosis
Resmetirom-like mechanisms
MRI-PDFF reductions
Triglycerides
ALT normalization
Body-weight changes
But none of that matters in F4.
Regulators, hepatologists, and payers want something that:
Slows portal pressure rise
Prevents varices
Delays decompensation
Reduces need for transplant
Only belapectin has shown all of that together.
THE SIMPLE ANSWER
GALT’s fibrosis data are better than any other MASH company because they succeed exactly where every other program has failed: reversing fibrosis biology, lowering portal pressure, and slowing clinical progression in real compensated cirrhosis — with signals that persist out to 36 months and are consistent across all major biomarker categories.
No other company in MASH has shown:
deep PRO-C3 reduction
ELF improvement
liver stiffness improvement
HVPG reduction
fewer varices
36-month durability
in true F4 cirrhosis
with a fibrosis-architecture mechanism
GALT is alone in that category.
BFAGROBUY Call BFAGRO
Trend line breake with volume and bullish news Barkat Frisian Agro Ltd
🚀 Barkat Frisian Agro Ltd (PSX: BFAGRO) – BUY CALL
📣 Bullish Fundamental Update – Fresh Catalyst Alert
Barkat Frisian has officially established its wholly-owned UAE subsidiary in the **Meydan Freezone, Dubai
Because the company is:
Expanding internationally
Increasing exports
Creating a base in UAE (a major business hub)
Seeking higher sales
Strengthening its brand
Enhancing long-term profitability
EUR/USD long: Expect volatility leading up to US NFP dataHello traders
I have closed my EUR/USD short for a 63 pip profit.
I have initiated a long EUR/USD position at 1.1583 with a stop at 1.1560.
The USA NFP data on Thursday is guaranteed to create volatility for the rest of the week.
TECHNICAL:
EUR/USD is holding steady above a weekly close level.
GOLD is also steady above the weekly close of 4000/oz
DXY is below a weekly close and formed a Doji candle yesterday. If tomorrow's close is lower, it will be an evening star pattern.
US Government Bonds 10Y Yield is close to the third touch on a downtrend line
BTC is recovering from matching the 1/1/2025 monthly low at 89,000
FUNDAMENTAL:
Uncertainty rules but there are some bright spots. The Trump administration has rolled back tariffs on food items not produced in the USA. Coffee beans (duuhhhh...) but thanks for your beautiful Kona beans, Hawaii.
Tomatoes(bulk imported from Mexico and Canada)
Bananas... like his tariff spree
The US Supreme Court decision on the legality of the tariffs may land sooner than later.
Most important in my opinion: The election results in an off-year. Barring special elections, the results show that America is pissed off. He promised lower inflation, food and gas prices, the end to the Ukraine/Russia war, release of the Epstein files(probably happening tomorrow but wait for the twist, just like his tax returns that are still under audit by the IRS... LOL.) My bet is that the DOJ will announce that not all files can be released due to an ongoing investigation into, yes, Democrats.
All these broken promises and chaos must weigh on international investors decisions on the continued sensibility of investing in the USA.
Longer term I am not too concerned about that theme but it remains to be seen what the totality of the damage he has and will inflict on the USA as a leader on many fronts will be.
Private sector job reports for September show:
ADP: 42,000 jobs added
Challenger: 54,000 job cuts
Bank of America internal data: Steady wage growth but slow down in hiring and likely increased unemployment rate.
CME Fedwatch tool shows a 46% probability of a rate cut in December. It is updated every 24 hours.
Lots of jaw boning from FOMC members.
Jefferson: we should wait
Waller: A preemptive cut will be in order.
Miran(Trump's buddy): cut, cut cut.
Hassett (Senior Administration Economic Adviser): the labor market is in "quiet time" due to AI efficiency (as the AI trade is softening). Yeah...
Folks, thanks for reading, IF you had made it this far.
Best of luck.
BITCOIN → 100K broken. Consolidation in the short zone...BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P broke through the 100K support level and is consolidating within the local range of 94,150 - 97,280. The decline may continue if the market does not receive support (news or other bullish drivers).
Bitcoin is consolidating below the upward trend line of support and below 100K. The price has entered a zone of panic and sell-off. Before the fall, a “liquidity hunt” is possible - a retest of 97300 - 98900.
The price is coming out of consolidation downwards, the bulls were unable to hold the 100K zone. The lack of a bullish driver and the negative fundamental background are doing their job...
Resistance levels: 97280, 98900, 100700
Support levels: 94150, 91900
Before further decline, the market may test the previously broken support zone relative to the upward lower trend line. Focus on the 97280 - 98990 zone. A false breakout and lack of bullish momentum could form a reversal pattern and trigger a decline to 94150 - 91900.
Best regards, R. Linda!






















