Market Analysis: Gold Price SlidesMarket Analysis: Gold Price Slides
Gold price extended losses below $4,100 before the bulls appeared.
Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today
- Gold price failed to clear $4,250 and corrected lower against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,050 on the hourly chart of gold.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of Gold, the price was able to climb above $4,200. The price even broke $4,220 before the bears appeared. The price traded toward $4,245 before there was a fresh decline.
There was a move below $4,200 and $4,100. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 40. Finally, it tested the $4,000 handle. A low was formed at $3,997 and the price is now attempting to recover.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,050. The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,244 swing high to the $3,997 low.
Immediate resistance on the upside is $4,100. The first major hurdle sits at $4,150 and the 61.8% Fib retracement. A close above $4,150 could initiate a recovery wave to $4,185. An upside break above $4,185 could send Gold price toward $4,250. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $4,320.
If there is no recovery wave, the price could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,050 level. The first key area of interest might be $4,000. If there is a downside break below $4,000, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop to $3,880.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Fundamental Analysis
GOLD BOUNCES FROM $4,000 - FOMC MINUTES TODAY!💰 GOLD BOUNCES FROM $4,000 - FOMC MINUTES TODAY! 📈
Current Price: $4,085 - $4,090 🟢
Opening Price: $4,079
Yesterday's Close: $4,066 (+0.56%)
Today's Performance: +0.56% ✅
Status: 🟢 RECOVERY MODE - CRITICAL DAY
🚨 MAJOR EVENT TODAY - FOMC MINUTES! ⚡
THE $4,000 SUPPORT HELD! Gold successfully defended the critical psychological level and is now bouncing. But TODAY is the most important day this week!
What's Happening:
✅ $4,000 Support HELD - Bulls defended successfully!
✅ Morning Star Pattern Formed - Bullish reversal signal at support
✅ FOMC Minutes TODAY - Will determine next major move
✅ NFP Data Thursday - First post-shutdown jobs report
✅ Risk-Off Sentiment - Safe-haven flows supporting gold
✅ Expected to RISE - Analysts forecast upward movement
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Market Structure: BULLISH RECOVERY 🟢🟢
Gold has bounced off the ascending trendline AND the $4,000 psychological level - a DOUBLE support confluence! Bulls are back in control short-term.
Key Development: Bulls managed to hold psychological level of $4,005 and formed Morning Star pattern indicating renewed buying activity
Critical Support Levels (Defended!) 🔵
Support 1: $4,050 - $4,060 (Current base - Strong)
Support 2: $4,000 - $4,005 (HELD! Psychological + Trendline)
Support 3: $3,987 - $4,002 (November open)
Support 4: $3,965 (November 6 low)
Support 5: $3,930 (Major support)
Key Resistance Levels (Recovery targets) 🔴
Resistance 1: $4,096 - $4,100 (KEY - 50-day MA + Descending trendline)
Resistance 2: $4,112 - $4,120 (20-day SMA - Strong)
Resistance 3: $4,140 - $4,150 (Major barrier)
Resistance 4: $4,170 - $4,212 (Previous descending trendline)
📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS
RSI (14): 49 (Neutral - Can move either direction) ⚪
MACD: Rising sharply, approaching zero line (Bullish momentum!) 🟢
MFI: Growing - Liquidity inflow into asset ✅
4H RSI: Bounced up but below 50 (Recovery attempt) ⚡
Moving Averages:
Price broke above 100-day MA ✅
Testing 50-day MA at $4,096 🔴
20-day SMA at $4,112 (Resistance) 🔴
Above ascending trendline ✅
VWAP & SMA20: Aligned with market price - Equilibrium between buyers/sellers
🎯 TODAY'S TRADING STRATEGIES
SCENARIO 1: BULLISH BREAKOUT 🟢 (60% Probability)
On November 20, 2025, price of XAU/USD expected to RISE
IF Gold Breaks Above $4,100:
Break of descending trendline and 50-day MA around $4,096 could open rally toward $4,212
LONG Setup:
Entry: Break and close above $4,100-$4,112
Targets:
TP1: $4,140 📍 (+40 pips)
TP2: $4,170 📍 (+70 pips)
TP3: $4,212 📍 (+112 pips - Previous trendline touch)
Stop Loss: $4,065 (Below support)
Risk/Reward: Excellent 1:3+ ratio ✅
SCENARIO 2: FALSE BREAKOUT / REJECTION 🔴 (30% Probability)
IF Gold Gets Rejected at $4,096-$4,112:
Bulls tried but failed - retest of support coming
SHORT Setup (Scalp):
Entry: Rejection at $4,100-$4,112 (confirmed with bearish candle)
Targets:
TP1: $4,065 📍
TP2: $4,050 📍
TP3: $4,000 📍 (Retest)
Stop Loss: $4,125 (Tight!)
⚠️ WARNING: This is counter-trend - use small positions!
SCENARIO 3: FOMC VOLATILITY 📊 (10% Probability)
IF FOMC Minutes Cause Whipsaw:
Strategy: WAIT for Clear Direction
Let the dust settle after FOMC release
Trade the REACTION, not the news
Entry: After 30-60 minutes of FOMC release
Follow the momentum with trend
💎 BEST TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Highly Recommended!) 🎯
WAIT FOR FOMC MINUTES! Don't trade BEFORE the release.
Setup A - Breakout Play (Preferred):
WAIT for FOMC minutes (Today, US session)
IF gold breaks $4,100-$4,112 with volume
Entry: $4,105-$4,112 (after confirmation)
Target: $4,140 → $4,170 → $4,212
SL: $4,080
Why: Riding institutional momentum
Setup B - Dip Buy:
IF gold pulls back to $4,050-$4,060
Entry: $4,052-$4,060 (on bounce)
Target: $4,100 → $4,120
SL: $4,035
⚠️ DO NOT TRADE during first 30 min after FOMC release! Wait for clarity!
🌍 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
TODAY'S MAJOR EVENTS 📅
🔥 FOMC MINUTES (US Session - CRITICAL!)
This is THE event today. Will show:
Fed's thinking on December rate cut
Concerns about economy post-shutdown
Inflation outlook
Market waiting for FOMC Minutes release and speech by Fed member John Williams
Thursday: NFP Data (First post-shutdown report)
September NFP expected: +50,000 jobs
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (forecast)
This could be market-moving!
BULLISH FACTORS ⬆️⬆️
✅ $4,000 Support Held - Technical strength confirmed
✅ Morning Star Pattern - Bullish reversal at support
✅ Risk-Off Sentiment - Stocks falling, gold rising
✅ Softer Treasury Yields - Making gold more attractive
✅ Shutdown Concerns - Economic weakness = gold support
✅ Analysts predict gold may reach $4,456-$4,509 by end November
✅ Central banks targeting 750-900 tonnes purchases for 2025
BEARISH RISKS ⬇️
⚠️ Hawkish FOMC - If minutes show Fed reluctant to cut rates
⚠️ Strong NFP Thursday - Would reduce rate cut odds
⚠️ Resistance at $4,100-$4,112 - Strong technical barrier
⚠️ December Rate Cut Odds - Only 43% (down from 63%)
⚠️ DXY Still Above 99.50 - Dollar maintaining strength
🔥 MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
What's Different Today:
The $4,000 level held perfectly - this is VERY bullish technically. But FOMC minutes could change everything in minutes!
Analyst Views:
Short-term (Today/Tomorrow):
$4,000 held, bulls need acceptance above $4,100 for rally to gather steam. FOMC minutes will determine direction.
This Week:
Critical - FOMC + NFP data will set tone for rest of November
Month End:
IF recovery continues → $4,200-$4,300 possible
IF rejected at $4,100 → Chop between $4,000-$4,100
💡 PROFESSIONAL GAME PLAN
For DAY TRADERS:
⚡ Wait for FOMC!
Do NOT trade 1 hour before release
Do NOT trade first 30 min after release
After dust settles, trade the direction
Use tight stops (whipsaws common)
For SWING TRADERS:
📊 This is Your Setup!
IF $4,100 breaks with FOMC → GO LONG (hold 3-5 days to $4,170+)
IF rejected at $4,100 → WAIT for next dip to $4,000
Target: $4,212 (1-2 week hold)
For LONG-TERM INVESTORS:
💎 Accumulation Zone
$4,000-$4,080 range is BUYING opportunity
Long-term targets: $4,500-$5,000 (2026)
Strategy: Build position gradually
Vision: Multi-month hold
📅 TODAY'S TIMELINE
Asian Session (Done): Gold bounced to $4,085-$4,090 ✅
European Session (Now): Consolidation before FOMC
US Session: FOMC MINUTES RELEASE 🔥🔥🔥
After FOMC: Big volatility expected - direction determined
Tomorrow (Thursday):
NFP Data (September) - First post-shutdown
This will confirm or reverse today's move
🎬 BOTTOM LINE (TL;DR)
Price: $4,085 (Bouncing)
Bias: 🟢 BULLISH (IF breaks $4,100)
Key Level: $4,100 (Break = Rally | Reject = Chop)
Today's Event: FOMC MINUTES (Trade-defining!)
Best Action: WAIT for FOMC, then trade the breakout
Risk Level: HIGH (Event volatility!)
🔔 THE $4,100 LEVEL - TODAY'S BATTLEGROUND!
IF GOLD BREAKS ABOVE $4,100-$4,112:
✅ Bulls win!
✅ Target $4,140 → $4,170 → $4,212
✅ Possible rally to $4,250+
✅ GO LONG after confirmation
IF GOLD REJECTS AT $4,100:
⚠️ Bulls stall
⚠️ Range between $4,000-$4,100 continues
⚠️ Wait for next setup
⚠️ Don't force trades
FOMC DECIDES EVERYTHING!
📊 Dovish = GOLD UP 🚀
📊 Hawkish = GOLD DOWN/SIDEWAYS 📉
📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Trend: 🟢 BULLISH (Short-term recovery active)
Momentum: IMPROVING - MACD rising 📈
Support: HOLDING at $4,050-$4,060 ✅
Resistance: TESTING at $4,096-$4,112 🎯
Pattern: Morning Star reversal + Trendline bounce
Next Move: Break $4,112 = UP | Reject = CHOP
Key Technical:
Having bounced off ascending trendline and $4,000, gold broke above 100-day MA and now testing descending trendline/50-day MA confluence
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT - FOMC DAY!
✅ Wait for FOMC - Don't guess the news!
✅ Small Positions - Risk MAX 1% (High volatility!)
✅ Wide Stops - Give trades room (40-50 pips)
✅ Quick Profits - Lock gains on FOMC spikes
✅ No Revenge - If wrong, accept and move on
🎯 SWING TRADE SETUPS
Setup A - FOMC Breakout (Recommended):
WAIT for FOMC minutes release
Entry: IF breaks $4,112 (after FOMC)
Target 1: $4,170 (Hold 2-3 days)
Target 2: $4,212 (Hold 5-7 days)
Target 3: $4,250 (Hold 1-2 weeks)
Stop Loss: $4,070
Setup B - Rejection Trade:
Entry: IF rejected at $4,100 (after FOMC)
Target 1: $4,050 (Hold 1-2 days)
Target 2: $4,000 (Hold 2-3 days)
Stop Loss: $4,125
🏆 PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Gold has executed a PERFECT TECHNICAL BOUNCE from the $4,000 psychological level. The formation of a Morning Star candlestick pattern at support is a classic bullish reversal signal.
The Setup:
Price trading at $4,085.62 as of 19.11.2025
Held $4,000 support perfectly (double bottom with trendline)
Now testing critical $4,096-$4,112 resistance zone
FOMC minutes today will determine next major move
Most Likely Scenarios:
Scenario 1 (60%):
FOMC shows Fed concerned about economy → Gold breaks $4,112 → Rally to $4,170-$4,212
Scenario 2 (30%):
FOMC shows Fed staying hawkish → Gold rejected at $4,100 → Range $4,000-$4,100 continues
Scenario 3 (10%):
FOMC very dovish → Gold explodes through $4,212 → $4,250+
The Big Picture:
$4,000 holding is VERY bullish. This was the make-or-break level and bulls defended it perfectly. If FOMC is dovish or neutral, gold has clear path to $4,200+
💪 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY TIP
THE BOUNCE IS HERE!
Yesterday we were at $4,000 and scared. Today we're at $4,085 and hopeful. This is why you MUST have a plan and stick to it. Those who bought at $4,000 yesterday are now profitable. Discipline wins! 🎯
🎓 LESSON: THE MORNING STAR PATTERN
What happened at $4,000:
Day 1: Long bearish candle (fear)
Day 2: Small candle (indecision)
Day 3: Long bullish candle (bulls return)
This is a Morning Star - one of the most reliable bullish reversal patterns! It shows bears exhausted and bulls taking control.
Trading Strategy:
When you see this at major support (like $4,000), it's a HIGH probability long setup!
🔮 FORECAST
Today: FOMC minutes → Breakout $4,112 OR rejection
Tomorrow: NFP data → Confirm today's direction
End of Week: $4,140-$4,170 OR back to $4,000
Next Week: Recovery continues to $4,200+ if $4,100 breaks
Month End: $4,250-$4,300 (IF bullish scenario plays out)
🚨 FOMC MINUTES - WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Dovish Signals (Gold UP 🟢):
Concerns about economic weakness
Mentions of shutdown impact
Opens door to December cut
Worries about labor market
Hawkish Signals (Gold DOWN/FLAT 🔴):
Confidence in economy
Inflation still concerning
No urgency to cut rates
Strong labor market comments
Neutral (Gold CHOP ⚪):
Data-dependent language
Wait-and-see approach
No clear direction
📊 SUPPORT/RESISTANCE SUMMARY
Strong Support: $4,050, $4,000 (CRITICAL)
Weak Support: $4,065, $4,040
Weak Resistance: $4,096, $4,100
Strong Resistance: $4,112, $4,140, $4,170, $4,212
Breakout Level: $4,112 (Game changer!)
Breakdown Level: $4,000 (Would be very bearish)
⚠️ FINAL DISCLAIMER
Today is a high-impact event day. FOMC minutes can cause extreme volatility and rapid price swings. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Never trade the news blindly - wait for confirmation. Use stop losses religiously. Position sizes should be smaller than normal on event days. False breakouts are common immediately after news. The first move after FOMC is often NOT the real move. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before trading.
📱 CRITICAL DAY AHEAD!
💬 FOMC minutes in few hours!
🔔 HIGH volatility expected
⚡ Trade the reaction, not the prediction!
🙏 Be patient, be disciplined!
#Gold #XAUUSD #FOMC #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #NFP #MorningStar #BullishReversal #EventTrading #RiskManagement #FOMCMinutes #MarketAnalysis #DayTrading #SwingTrading
Globe Life1. Price is under the 50-day MA
That blue line at ~137 is above price. Trend = down. In a downtrend you short pops, not buy dips.
2. Major resistance zone above (132.5–138)
Price already rejected this area multiple times. Your chart shows a textbook “lower high” forming right under resistance.
3. Structure is bearish
You have lower highs + lower lows since October. The current candles show weak buyers, no momentum.
4. Risk/reward favors downside
Upside is capped by heavy resistance. Downside is open toward 127–124.
5. No bullish reversal signal
No strong green candle, no break of structure, no reclaim of the 50MA. Nothing to invalidate the downtrend.
Conclusion:
GL is a sell because it's in a clear downtrend, rejecting a strong resistance zone, and failing to show any bullish shift. Ideal trade is short into resistance with small stop and bigger downside targets.
BTC — Original Distribution Still UnfinishedBTC continues to move inside unfinished structure. Risk tone is neutral and overnight flows were thin, leaving the market waiting for direction from today’s U.S. releases. The only event with enough weight to shift risk appetite is the FOMC Minutes later today.
On the chart, BTC has rejected the original bullish distribution gap at 88,804.64 for several sessions. That gap remains unclosed, which signals unfinished architecture rather than trend continuation. Price is still confined within Monday’s range between 91,158 and 95,950, forming a clean mid-range compression. Nothing in this structure confirms resolution yet.
Market Structure Mapping views this compression as a neutral regime: the market is balancing, not trending. The failure to close the distribution zone shows the prior move left imbalance behind, and markets generally rebalance before committing to a new leg. Retail sees “sideways.” Professionals see preparation.
The non-obvious point: this isn’t hesitation; it’s the market restoring balance before revealing intent.
For operators, the approach is straightforward. Let New York volatility clear the noise. Structural clarity only appears once price resolves above 95,950 or below 91,158. Anything before that is positioning, not direction.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
HINOHINO PAK PSX buy for mid to long term
NOTE: Not a trade Plan buy for mid to long term (accumulate on support)
Further update for will provided on 26/27 Nov 2025
📉TECH:
Currently In accumulation phase previously it took 123 days from top HH to HL then made upward move and made another HH.
Currently it has complted 113 days , and we are assuming it move up next few days
📍 Accumulation Areas → we acuumulted it on 470 to 505
⚡ If Support Breaks: Next attractive Buy Zone →475, 455,
360–390(if PSX market goes down)
FUND:
Strengths: Revenue growth is very strong recently, interest coverage is good, leverage is low.
How ever strong EPS growth company turnaround story.
Deals in busses & trucks
🚌 Buses & Trucks: Orders surged 80% 🚀
AUDCHF In Bearish Continuation – Eyeing 0.5145AUDCHF In Bearish Continuation – Eyeing 0.5145
AUDCHF is in a clear downtrend across all timeframes.
Yesterday, the price managed to rise to 0.5210 where it also encountered a strong resistance area that pushed it back down to 0.5180.
Given that the structure remains bearish, there is a high possibility that AUDCHF will fall again to test the previous low near 0.5145.
On the other hand, CHF remains strong for a very long time.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
The Hidden Truth Behind Buybacks & Cash Flow 🔥 The Hidden Truth Behind Buybacks & Cash Flow: What Investors Miss in NVIDIA’s Numbers
Why RSUs and Working Capital can distort the real story
Most investors see two big numbers and get excited:
✔ huge buybacks
✔ huge operating cash flow
But rarely do they understand what’s actually happening behind the scenes.
Let’s break down NVIDIA’s latest filings in simple, real numbers.
🔹 1. RSUs Inflate Share Count — Buybacks Don’t Always Reduce It
Everyone loves to hear “the company is buying back shares.”
But here’s what most investors don’t realize:
RSUs (employee stock awards) create new shares → dilution.
Buybacks must first neutralize that dilution before reducing total shares.
Let’s look at NVIDIA’s own numbers (Q1 FY2026 – Apr 2025):
▶ Shares Issued from Stock Plans: +50M
▶ Shares Withheld for Taxes (RSU taxes): –13M
▶ Shares Repurchased: –126M
📌 Net share reduction = 126 – 50 + 13 = 89M
This means:
Although NVIDIA spent $14.5B on buybacks, the true reduction was only 89M shares.
And the cost?
▶ “Issuance (Retirement) of Stock, Net” = –$13.725B (Q1)
▶ Q2: –$23.445B
▶ FY: –$33.216B
This is not real reduction — it’s a treadmill:
RSUs add shares
the company buys back shares
RSUs add more
the company buys back again
If NVIDIA ever stopped buybacks for even one quarter,
shares outstanding would jump instantly.
🔥 Simple Example (for investors):
Start of quarter: 1,000M shares
RSUs issued: +40M → 1,040M
Buybacks: –50M → 990M
The investor thinks they bought back 50M shares.
In reality?
➡ True reduction = only 10M.
➡ 80% of buybacks were just neutralizing dilution.
This happens every quarter.
🔹 2. Working Capital Boosted Cash Flow — Not Operations
Look at NVIDIA’s operating cash flow (OCF):
Q1 FY2026 OCF: +$27.414B
But the key line is this:
Changes in Working Capital: +$8.654B
This means:
$8.6B of the operating cash flow came from timing of receivables, payables, and inventory — NOT from actual operations.
This is crucial because:
✔ It’s cyclical
✔ It’s temporary
✔ It reverses next quarter
Example from the next periods:
Q2 FY2026 “Changes in WC”: –$2.368B
FY2025: –$9.383B
Q4 FY2025: –$3.520B
Working capital swings can boost or crash cash flow without any change in real profitability.
🔥 Why This Matters
Investors often misinterpret:
🚫 A jump in Operating Cash Flow
= “Strong business performance”
But many times:
✔ It’s just Working Capital cycling
✔ Not improved EBITDA
✔ Not improved margins
✔ Not better demand
✔ Not better efficiency
It’s accounting timing, not operational strength.
🔹 3. The Combination Can Mislead Investors
In a single quarter, NVIDIA showed:
✔ +8.6B boost from WC
✔ $14.5B spent on buybacks
✔ Net true share reduction only 89M
This creates the illusion of:
higher OCF
higher EPS
fewer shares
But much of this stems from:
accounting timing (WC)
neutralizing dilution (RSUs)
Not from:
organic profitability
sustainable improvements
🔥 Conclusion: What Every Investor Should Watch
If you want to understand the real strength of a company, focus on:
✔ Net Shares Change (after RSUs)
Not just “buybacks.”
✔ OCF minus Changes in Working Capital
Not the headline OCF.
✔ True organic cash generation
Not timing effects.
✔ SBC (Stock-Based Compensation)
Because SBC = dilution = more future buybacks.
📌 Final Wake-Up Call
RSUs inflate share count.
Buybacks only offset them.
Working capital inflates cash flow.
Neither guarantees stronger fundamentals.
If you want to see the real story,
you must look beneath the headline numbers.
Uptrend Retest PlayGold has continued to maintain a strong bullish structure on the 15-minute timeframe, creating a series of higher highs and higher lows while respecting the ascending trendline that has been guiding the current uptrend. After an initial impulsive move to the upside, price broke above a key intraday resistance level, confirming buyer strength and shifting that previous resistance into a fresh support zone.
Following the breakout, price is now pulling back toward a high-probability demand area where multiple technical factors converge. This zone aligns with:
1️⃣ The retest of the prior resistance, now acting as support.
2️⃣ The ascending trendline, which has been consistently defended by buyers.
3️⃣ A small liquidity sweep, as price has dipped below a minor intraday low to collect resting sell-side liquidity.
4️⃣ A fresh demand block, created by the last bullish candle before the recent impulsive breakout.
These elements together form a strong confluence area where buyers have historically been active, suggesting the market may be preparing for another bullish continuation leg. If price reacts positively within the blue entry zone and forms bullish confirmations (rejection wicks, displacement candles, or a break in micro-structure), the probability of continuation toward the marked upside target increases significantly.
Moreover, the broader trend remains intact, with no break of structure to the downside. As long as price continues to respect the support zone and the trendline, the bullish bias remains valid. This pullback should be viewed as a corrective move within a trending market rather than a reversal, and deeper retracements into the demand region may provide even higher-quality entries for traders waiting for confirmation.
Overall, current conditions favor bulls as long as support holds. A strong reaction from the entry zone could lead to renewed momentum and an attempt to push toward the next liquidity level and the projected target above.
BULLISH ANALYSIS GOLD (SMC)🇺🇸 PROFESSIONAL BREAKDOWN
(XAU/USD – 15M: Accumulation → Manipulation → Rejection → Expansion into 1H FVG)
🔸 1. Accumulation Phase
Price developed a clean range where liquidity was built on both sides.
This is the foundation of the eventual institutional move.
🔸 2. Institutional Manipulation (Fake Out)
A sweep above the consolidation highs confirms the classic liquidity grab.
This fake breakout is a signature SMC behavior before a directional move.
🔸 3. ChoCH + BOS
After the sweep, price prints:
• a Break of Structure, and
• a Change of Character
Clear confirmation of bullish intent.
🔸 4. Rejection Zone
The current pullback shows early signs of a bullish rejection pattern, pointing toward a potential retest of the buy zone.
🔸 5. Buy Setup at 4,068
Your BUY level is placed precisely where support, demand and previous imbalance converge — a high-probability entry zone.
🔸 6. Stop-Loss Updated: 4,036
The 8-pip buffer gives protection from typical gold volatility.
🔸 7. R/R 1:2.8
The new setup maintains a realistic and well-structured risk-to-reward:
• TP1: 4,111
• TP2: 4,150
Both levels align with liquidity pools and the unmitigated 1-hour FVG above.
🔸 8. 1H FVG Mitigation Expected
The unfilled imbalance above is a strong magnet, reinforcing the bullish projection.
🌟 Motivational Message
“Mastery comes from repetition and refinement. Every chart tells a story — and you’re learning to read it with institutional precision. Keep going.” GOOD LUCK TRADERS
Seagate's AI Advantage: Powering the Exabyte EconomySeagate Technologies (NASDAQ: STX) exhibits powerful technical and fundamental momentum. Its stock has doubled over the last year, driven by its unique positioning in the surging Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout. Seagate can deliver AI-capable hard drives (HDDs) at scale for the data center industry like no other competitor. The company's future success depends on its massive capacity storage solutions, which are critical for training AI models and inference processes. This robust outlook propels strong support from major institutional investors and a bullish analyst consensus.
Technology, High-Tech, and Patent Analysis
Seagate's competitive edge rests on its Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology. This innovation, branded as the Mozaic 3+ platform , dramatically increases areal density, enabling massive capacity gains and superior cost-per-terabyte efficiency compared to older technologies.
Seagate's foresight places it ahead of its primary competitor, Western Digital, in this generational technology transition . The company's patent strength in this domain ensures a sustained technological advantage, crucial as high-density HDDs remain the cost-effective backbone for the majority of exabyte-scale AI data storage.
Industry Trends and Business Models
The AI boom fundamentally reshapes the data storage industry. AI models require enormous, cost-effective storage for training datasets, making high-capacity HDDs indispensable. Seagate's business model focuses intensely on mass-capacity, nearline drives for hyperscale cloud providers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, etc.) and AI innovators like NVIDIA and OpenAI. Build-to-order (BTO) contracts with these major customers secure revenue streams and provide demand visibility well into 2026, mitigating cyclical risks previously inherent in the storage market.
Management & Leadership in Strategic Growth
Management demonstrates effective strategic pivoting, focusing on value capture and improved operational leverage. The successful and rapid commercialization of the Mozaic 3+ HAMR drives confirms strong execution in the product roadmap. Leadership forecasts management-defined gross margins to increase to nearly 40% in 2026. These margin improvements, driven by the higher profitability of next-generation drives, highlight a commitment to disciplined growth and improved operational efficiency.
Macroeconomics and Balance Sheet Inflection
The global macroeconomic environment for data center expansion remains robust, fueled by the multi-trillion-dollar AI Supercycle. This secular tailwind significantly boosts demand for Seagate's mass-capacity products. Seagate's balance sheet quality is improving after past challenges with debt and losses. Strong cash flow, driven by surging AI demand, enables debt reduction and improved financial health. This pivot is expected to increase shareholder value by improving financial flexibility and supporting future dividend increases.
Corporate Culture, Innovation, and Shareholder Value
The company culture prioritizes innovation through long-term investment in core storage science, evidenced by the 20-year development of HAMR. Beyond stock appreciation, the company's *b]$2.96 annualized dividend acts as a catalyst for long-term shareholders. Seagate currently pays less than 35% of its earnings, providing ample room to increase the distribution pace, offering both growth and income potential as earnings surge.
Market Sentiment and Institutional Support
Market sentiment strongly favors the stock, marked by a Moderate Buy consensus from a growing number of analysts. Key technical indicators, including high trading volume and MACD convergence , signal strengthening market momentum. Furthermore, institutions own over 90% of the stock and have been consistent net buyers throughout 2025. This institutional support provides a rock-solid base and sets the stage for a potential year-end rally to new all-time highs.
Victory Capital - Short Price is under the 50 SMA → downtrend, sellers in control.
62.5–63 is strong resistance → every bounce gets rejected.
Lower highs & lower lows → bearish structure.
Red candles have stronger volume → sellers dominate.
Weak bounce after liquidity sweep → no real reversal.
Risk-reward favors downside → more room to fall than rise.
Do You Know Bitcoin and Nasdaq Have a 92% Correlation?* Most traders still believe Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 belong to two different worlds — one is “digital currency,” the other is “US tech stocks.”
- But in reality, Bitcoin and Nasdaq have nearly 92% positive correlation (based on past +10 years data).
The current market movements are showing signs of a market crash on the way...........
- See for arounf past 10 years, Bitcoin stayed above the tech index.
- It was the month of Nov only in 2015, when Bitcoin crossed above Nasdaq on the chart
After 10 straight years - Its 2025 & the month of November itself
- And Bitcoin has slipped below Nasdaq, forming its first bearish crossover in a decade.
This is a major shift.
- When a long-term leader loses momentum, it often signals deeper structural weakness — not only for Bitcoin, but for the entire risk-on ecosystem.
- Remember, Nasdaq & Bitcoin has over a 92% correlation
- And US tech industry is brewing a bubble somewhere - where the epicenter lies in the AI sector
A crash in one will sink the other with it
Checkout the chart (Nasdaq Futures & Bitcoin Weekly)
GBP/JPY: An Unusual Ascent Amid Global RiskThe GBP/JPY pair currently sits near 204.00, retracing from a six-week high. This movement reflects a complex tug-of-war between the Pound Sterling (GBP) , which faces uncertainty from upcoming UK inflation data, and an uncharacteristically weak Japanese Yen (JPY) . We analyze the diverse forces driving this pair's recent unusual ascent, where the JPY fails to act as its traditional safe-haven counterweight.
Macroeconomics & Monetary Policy Divergence
The immediate market focus centers on divergent monetary policy expectations. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces pressure to align its policies with fiscal objectives, potentially limiting future rate hikes. This uncertainty, coupled with the new government's plan for large economic stimulus and lower taxes, dampens JPY demand. Conversely, the Bank of England (BoE) awaits crucial UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to show headline inflation moderating to *b]3.6% annually. This data will significantly influence the BoE's rate hike outlook, injecting caution into GBP trading ahead of the 07:00 GMT release.
Geopolitics & Geostrategy: The Taiwan Factor
A key reason for the JPY's recent underperformance is a shift in geopolitical sentiment toward Japan. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi adopted a firmer pro-Taiwan stance than her predecessors, triggering unease in Beijing. This heightened political tension weighs heavily on sentiment surrounding Japan, effectively diluting the Yen's traditional safe-haven magnetism against global risk. This specific anxiety overshadows the Yen's long-term status as the principal global currency counterweight.
Fiscal Policy & Economic Outlook
Concerns about Japan's fiscal health are also eroding the JPY's strength. The government is preparing a large economic stimulus package to boost growth. This spending raises concerns among investors worried about Japan's already stretched finances . These fiscal anxieties add direct pressure to the currency, making the JPY less attractive despite the current risk-off environment observed in global equity markets. This fiscal trajectory contrasts with the Bank of Japan's potential monetary hesitancy.
Industry Trends & Corporate Vulnerabilities
Corporate Japan's deep integration with the US technology sector presents another vulnerability. Many major Japanese companies maintain significant earnings exposure to the health and performance of the US tech boom. Corporate vulnerabilities tied to the US technology cycle are eroding the JPY’s traditional safe-haven appeal. Consequently, negative headlines or wobbles on Wall Street disproportionately mute the Yen's response, preventing it from rallying when global equities come under pressure.
Management, Innovation, and Patent Analysis -
While not an immediate driver, Japan's long-term currency strength relies on its competitive edge in high-tech and science . The current vulnerability suggests that the market is discounting the perceived innovation premium of corporate Japan. Traders see a connection between the dependency on US tech and a potentially lagging pace in domestic, cutting-edge patent analysis and independent industry leadership. Weak corporate sentiment reflects doubts about resilience and adaptive business models under new management.
Conclusion for Strategic Hedging
The Yen's uncharacteristic weakness creates a unique setup. The currency is behaving out of character relative to the worsening risk backdrop. This anomaly presents tactical opportunities for hedgers with exposure to the Yen. However, this phase is likely temporary. Japan’s enormous net international investment position and its central role in funding global carry trades mean the Yen's safe-haven DNA remains intact. If global markets experience a sharper, sustained downturn, expect the traditional gravitational pull into the JPY to reassert itself.
PLUG: recharged on the retest, or another fork with no voltage?PLUG tapped perfectly into the 1.85–2.00 zone - a clean confluence of the MA200, the ascending daily trendline, and the main support that launched the summer rally. Oscillators dipped into oversold, candles show buyer tails, and volume confirms defense of the level. As long as price holds above the trendline, the bullish scenario stands: breaking above 2.70 opens 3.36, and a move above 3.36 targets 4.58. The extended target at 6.56 requires a full breakout from the broader accumulation range.
Company: Plug Power is one of the key players in hydrogen fuel-cell technology, producing electrochemical systems, electrolyzers, and industrial energy solutions for logistics, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
Fundamentally , as of November 19, Plug remains pressured but gradually stabilizing. OPEX continues to decline, manufacturing efficiency improves, and the company expands partnerships in the green hydrogen ecosystem. Revenue volatility persists, but contraction slows, while new electrolyzer deployments build the future pipeline. Scaling production decreases unit costs, and margin improvements suggest the company is climbing out of the worst phase. Policy support and industrial demand keep hydrogen a long-term thematic growth story - though near-term risks remain.
Technically , the bullish structure holds above 1.85–2.00. A breakout above 2.70 activates 3.36, and strength above 3.36 brings the 4.58 target into play. Losing the MA200 risks a prolonged range, but current reaction shows buyers stepping in with precision.
Plug pretends it's collapsing, but really - it’s just plugging itself in for the next run.
BECO - PSX - Buy CallFundamentally, this is cash rich company and therefore, all likelihood that it would perform much better than its peers. This SCRIPT has the potential of 2X in one year time.
One can buy it now as well as if it retraces a bit. On daily TF, AB=CD pattern has been drawn. Fib ext has been used to identify TPs.
It is ideal for SWING trading spanning over at least 8 months for substantial gains.
GBPUSD H4 – Trading IdeaGBPUSD is consolidating after a clear BOS on the H4 structure, and price is slowly drifting back toward the demand zone / Order Block located around 1.3055–1.3020.
Market is still respecting bullish structure overall, and the clean imbalance below suggests price may sweep liquidity and tap the H4 OB before delivering the next leg up.
Buy Zone (Preferred Entry):
1.3055 – 1.3020 (H4 Order Block)
Stop Loss:
Below 1.2990
Targets:
• TP1: 1.3180
• TP2: 1.3280
• TP3: 1.3350 (Full mitigation of the imbalance above)
Why this setup?
• Market Structure Shift + BOS confirms bullish intent
• Unmitigated H4 Order Block with clean liquidity resting below
• Price currently correcting in a controlled manner, showing signs of accumulation
• Large H4 imbalance above gives strong upside targets
S&P 500: At a Technical CrossroadsThe S&P 500 index (the S&P 500 futures contract in this analysis) is currently at a decisive technical inflection point. After several months of sustained progress since the March/April decline, prices are now retesting a key area where several dynamic supports converge: the daily Ichimoku cloud, the 50-day moving average (SMA 50) and, lower down, the 200-day moving average (SMA 200), which meets the former all-time high of 6,150 points. This confluence of indicators makes the current period a true moment of technical truth for the U.S. equity market and the GAFAM stocks.
The first element to monitor is the holding of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe, which has so far acted as a support zone during consolidations. A clear break below this structure would be significant: it would indicate the loss of medium-term bullish momentum and open the door to a deeper correction, similar to the technical scenario that occurred at the end of last February.
In the event of a breakdown, a pullback toward 6,200 points appears plausible. This corresponds to the area of the former all-time high of the S&P 500 — now a major support — and represents the most coherent technical pivot for a correction lasting several sessions. At this stage, this support has not been broken, so its breach should not be anticipated; only the daily close matters.
The current configuration is also accompanied by weakening momentum indicators: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been declining for several weeks, confirming a classic bearish divergence at the end of a trend.
All this occurs in a context of very high valuations for the S&P 500, with multiples leaving little room for error and making the index more vulnerable to technical adjustments. When fundamentals are stretched, chart levels play a pivotal role: a bearish technical signal can trigger a rapid realignment of prices toward more fundamentally sustainable levels.
For now, buyers remain in control as long as the price stays above the cloud and the SMA 50. But the zone being tested right now potentially represents the last line of defense before a more pronounced correction.
The market is therefore truly at a crossroads: either a valid rebound resumes the bullish trend, or a breakdown opens the way for a return toward 6,200 points, a major level for the underlying long-term uptrend.
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