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Fundamental Analysis

Trading quiet markets: General rule of thumbAs North America celebrates Thanksgiving, US stock and bond markets are closed. The currency market continues as normal. 'In general' a good rule of thumb in quiet markets is that 'movent continues in the prevailing direction'. Although likely very slowly. It is very pleasing that the recent 'risk on sentiment' and the currencies behaving as you would expect, has continued. I wouldn't blame anyone for placing a risk on trade today, in fact, overall sentiment and currency movement invites a trade. (AUD USD long for example). Personally, I prefer to wait until liquidity picks up again, which for me, means waiting until at least Friday's European session. I realise it is easier to sit on the sidelines with two trades under my belt this week. If you are trading, it is prudent to be aware that some platforms 'widen spreads' in quiet times.
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
ASST (Strive) - A novel idea with explosive growth potential******DYOR - if Bitcoin price collapses, so will this stock play!****** 1. The Bitcoin "War Chest" (The Numbers) Strive has already accumulated a significant Bitcoin treasury. As of their most recent disclosures (November 2025), the numbers are substantial: Total Holdings: Approximately 7,525 BTC. (Merger with Semler Scientific will add another 5,000 BTC when finalized). Valuation: At current market prices (~$90.5k/BTC), this treasury is worth over $681 million. The Strategy: They explicitly state their goal is to maximize "Bitcoin per share"—the exact metric MicroStrategy (MSTR) uses to judge its success. They view Bitcoin not just as an asset, but as the "hurdle rate" for all their capital allocation decisions. 2. The "Tax-Free" Twist (The Section 351 Exchange) This is the unique financial engineering that likely attracted Jane Street. Strive is attempting something MicroStrategy has not done: a tax-free Bitcoin-for-Equity swap. How it works: Under Section 351 of the U.S. tax code, investors sitting on massive unrealized gains in Bitcoin can "swap" their BTC for shares of Strive (ASST) without triggering an immediate capital gains tax event. Why it matters: There are billions of dollars in "stranded" Bitcoin held by early adopters who don't want to sell because of the tax hit. Strive offers them a way to diversify into a public equity structure without the tax penalty. The Arbitrage: For a firm like Jane Street, this unique structure creates complex arbitrage opportunities between the stock price, the Bitcoin price, and the tax value of these swaps. 3. Vivek Ramaswamy’s Role Vivek Ramaswamy is the co-founder and largest individual figurehead, but his official role has shifted due to his political ambitions. Official Status: He is not currently the Chairman or CEO (that role belongs to Matt Cole, a former portfolio manager at CalPERS). Vivek resigned his chairmanship in 2023 to run for U.S. President. "Insider" Confidence: Despite not being on the board, he remains deeply financially committed. He recently disclosed a personal purchase of $1.25 million in preferred stock, signaling to the market that he is betting his own money on this pivot. ****Side Note: Prominent investor Mike Alfred has also increased his shares of ASST to 1.9 million, adding another 50k at $1.06 on 11/26/2025. Follow him at x.com/mikealfred - he posts all his buys and sells ****** Political Context: Vivek is widely expected to run for Governor of Ohio in 2026. His involvement in a "Bitcoin Treasury" company aligns with the broader "pro-crypto" political stance emerging in the U.S., making ASST partly a bet on his political rise and the regulatory tailwinds that might follow. 4. The "Baby MicroStrategy" Playbook Strive is replicating the MicroStrategy leverage model but with a faster start: The PIPE Deal: They recently secured $750 million in private financing (PIPE) to buy more Bitcoin. Warrants: The deal includes warrants that could bring in another $750 million if exercised. This is likely where Jane Street's interest lies—warrants offer massive upside leverage if the stock price spikes. Aggressive Issuance: They plan to issue debt and equity aggressively to buy more Bitcoin, creating a feedback loop: Buy Bitcoin -> Stock goes up -> Issue stock at premium -> Buy more Bitcoin -> Repeat. Summary of the Trade Jane Street likely sees ASST as a high-velocity volatility engine. With Vivek’s political profile, a massive Bitcoin treasury, and a unique tax loophole for crypto whales, the stock is designed to move violently. Jane Street’s 9.9% stake ensures they capture the upside of that movement while staying liquid enough to exit if the premium collapses. This is a very speculative play. Proceed with caution.
NASDAQ:ASSTLong
by undersun
2
BTC - Crypto Winter or Valhalla?*****DYOR - This is not financial advice. I am watching closely to see which narrative plays out.***** Based on the market data and analysis from late November 2025, the consensus is that this crash was primarily a deleveraging event combined with short-term holder panic, rather than a cycle-ending distribution phase that signals the start of a long crypto winter. Here is the breakdown of why the data supports "leverage flush" over "crypto winter." 1. The Case for Deleveraging (The Primary Driver) The speed and mechanics of the drop from the October highs ($126k) to the November lows ($80k range) bear the classic hallmarks of a leverage washout rather than a structural market collapse. Massive Liquidations: Reports confirm that billions in long positions were liquidated in November.1 Open interest (the total value of outstanding derivative contracts) plummeted, signaling that highly leveraged bets were forcefully wiped out. Funding Rates Reset: Prior to the crash, funding rates were high, indicating an overheated market where traders were paying a premium to stay long. These rates have since neutralized, which typically happens after a healthy "reset" of the market. Short-Term Capitulation: On-chain data indicates that the bulk of the selling came from "Short-Term Holders" (investors who bought in the last 1-3 months). These participants panicked when prices dropped below their cost basis (around $100k), triggering a cascade of selling. 2. Why it Likely Isn't "Distribution" (Crypto Winter) In market cycle theory (like Wyckoff), "distribution" is a long period where "smart money" (institutions/whales) quietly unloads their bags onto retail investors before a crash. The data suggests this hasn't fully happened yet. Whale Behavior: While long-term holders did take some profits during the run-up to $126k, analysts note this looks like "mid-cycle profit-taking" rather than the wholesale exit seen at market tops. Large entities have generally held onto their core positions. Institutional Inflows: Spot ETF inflows have remained relatively resilient despite the price drop. In a true "end of distribution" phase, you would typically see sustained, heavy institutional outflows. Macro Correlation: The drop correlated tightly with a "risk-off" move in the wider stock market (specifically tech stocks and concerns over Fed rates). Bitcoin acted like a high-beta tech stock rather than an isolated collapsing asset. 3. The Verdict: A "Mid-Cycle Correction" Most analysts view this as a steep correction (approx. 30-35% drawdown) within a broader bull market, rather than the start of a multi-year bear market. Feature Deleveraging Event (Current View) End of Distribution (Crypto Winter) Speed Sharp, violent, and fast (V-shaped or rapid drop). Slow grind downwards after a long plateau. Volume High volume on the way down (panic selling). High volume at the top (smart money selling). Sentiment "Fear" spikes instantly. "Complacency" turns to slow denial. Catalyst Liquidation cascades & macro fear. Exhaustion of new buyers. What to watch next: Key technical levels are currently around $88,000 - $90,000. If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold this level, it confirms the "leverage flush" theory. A sustained break below $80,000 would be the only signal that might validate the "crypto winter" concerns.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by undersun
The strategy of shorting gold was accurate.Today's bottoming strategy clearly indicated that gold should be shorted around the 4165-4180 resistance zone. From the opening to the afternoon, the market provided countless opportunities. We placed three short orders in the 4165-4180 area in our strategy, all of which were completed according to the rhythm, structure, and plan. The timing was perfect. Gold Technical Analysis: The gold market is exhibiting a volatile and fluctuating trend. From a daily chart perspective, the current gold price is showing a wide-range fluctuation pattern, ultimately closing with a doji candlestick. Gold traded in a volatile manner on Tuesday, ultimately closing with a doji candlestick on the daily chart. Looking at the technical pattern formed by connecting recent highs and lows, the current gold price is generally trading within a triangle consolidation range, and this range is gradually narrowing. In the short term, it is necessary to continue to monitor the consolidation rhythm and wait for the market to choose a clear direction. The key resistance level to watch is around 4170-4180, while the short-term support level is around 4140-4120. From a technical perspective, although the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, the short-term trend shows a divergence between the 5-day moving average moving upwards and the 10-day moving average moving downwards. This reflects the intense short-term battle between bulls and bears, and the possibility of continued price fluctuations. In intraday trading, the 4110-4100 area, where the 5-day moving average is currently located, should be the primary focus, as this level will serve as a crucial short-term support reference. Overall, today's gold trading strategy is recommended to primarily focus on selling on rallies and secondarily on buying on dips. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is 4170-4180, and the key support level is 4110-4100. Please stay tuned.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Daniel_PrimeFX
Slight fluctuations. Short sell in the resistance zone.Gold prices traded within a narrow range during Thursday's Asian and European sessions. Overall, however, they rebounded slowly after a pullback, a pattern that puts gold on track for a fourth consecutive monthly gain, extending the record-breaking rally in October when prices briefly approached the $4400 area. This continued upward movement likely indicates that the current market still has strong support. After the previous pullback prompted some profit-taking, technical indicators continue to show strong underlying momentum, reinforcing the overall bullish trend. Although the price action was limited today, gold has not yet broken out due to the US market being closed. Therefore, the focus should be on shorting in the short term. If the price remains in the dense resistance zone of 4170-4180, a small short position can be considered. If it breaks out upwards, then we will adjust our strategy accordingly. Quaid believes that the possibility of breaking through the upper resistance level is unlikely. On the downside, continue to pay attention to the strong support at 4120-4130. If the pullback at the resistance level is large, then the next target is the 4110 level. Trading Strategy: Short at 4170-4180, stop loss at 4190, profit target 4140-4130. I will adjust the strategy flexibly according to market fluctuations and update it in the channel.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid_3
Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) — Late-Stage Immuno-Oncology MomentumCompany Overview Arcus NYSE:RCUS is a clinical-stage biotech advancing next-gen cancer & immunology therapies, led by TIGIT inhibitor domvanalimab and HIF-2α inhibitor casdatifan—with growing validation from big-pharma partnerships. Key Catalysts Domvanalimab (TIGIT) — NSCLC Breakthrough: Phase 3 data showed a 37% reduction in progression risk vs. Keytruda, positioning Arcus at the front of a $50B+ immuno-oncology market. Casdatifan (HIF-2α) — Rapid Path in RCC: Advanced to Phase 3 in renal cell carcinoma after ~80% response rates in early trials, reinforcing best-in-class potential. De-Risking Partnerships: Collaborations with AstraZeneca and Gilead provide funding, development scale, and commercial reach across high-value solid tumor indications. Why It Matters ✅ Multiple late-stage shots on goal in large indications ✅ Combination-ready checkpoint assets with clear differentiation ✅ Strategic partners reduce capital & execution risk Investment Outlook Bullish above: $17–$17.50 Target: $32–$33 — supported by Phase 3 TIGIT win, HIF-2α expansion, and partner-enabled commercialization.
NYSE:RCUSLong
by Richtv_official
JD.COM is an extremely oversold stockThere’s an interesting situation with JD.com right now. According to the latest report, the company’s net cash position (cash on the balance sheet minus debt) is around $18 billion. At the same time, its stakes in the publicly traded JD Health (~67%) and JD Logistics (~62%) are worth about $25 billion at current market caps. So the combined value of the subsidiaries and the group’s net assets is $43 billion, while the whole company is currently trading at $39 billion. This implies that JD Retail (their core business — the marketplace), JD Industrials, JD Technology, and JD Property are being valued by the market at negative levels. Until last September, there were quite a few companies trading below their cash balances with no debt, and since then many have corrected significantly upward. The fact that JD is once again trading like this is surprising. In my view, the current price can be explained by the following: In September–October, a huge amount of 40-strike calls expiring January 16 were bought — roughly 450,000 contracts, which is enormous (45 million shares against an average daily volume of 16 million). But they couldn’t sustain it, and now this positioning is working against the stock price: the options are decaying, which is putting pressure on the price. Since November the SPX has been volatile, and around 80k contracts were closed; open interest is now 374k — still extremely high. So I think this is purely a technical drawdown that will fade as the options expire. Alternatively, a very strong catalyst would be needed to generate a +30–50% spike in daily volume for delta to “start working.” Today China released a plan for additional stimulus, and JPMorgan upgraded Chinese equities to “overweight,” expecting that AI and economic stimulus will be the key drivers in 2026.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by ati1981
1
Psycholog: How to accept losing tradesLearning to accept losing trades is the most difficult, yet most necessary part of successful trading. It's a well spoken strategy… win more than you can lose on each trade. Meaning (for example), risk 1% of your account on each losing trade. And gain 1.5% on each winning trade. If you do that, you can lose half your trades and still make money. So, if we know we can lose half the time, why is it so difficult to accept losing trades? It's something I struggled with for years. I clearly remember once being so certain the GBP JPY chart was going up, I'd done my analysis, there had been a fundamental catalyst, I was convinced I'd put the stop loss in the perfect place and the profit target wasn't too ambitious. But the trade stopped out. I couldn't believe it. I was so mortified, there was no way the trade was going to stop out. Gripped by emotion, I immediately placed another trade, still convinced the chart was going up. That trade also stopped out. And two hours later, I'd placed another three trades, of course, all of those also hit the stop loss. In one afternoon I'd wiped out weeks worth of profit and hard work. I was in complete despair…and I wish I could say that was the last time something like that happened, but it wasn't. It was only when I finally taught myself to accept losing trades, I started to see consistent profits year after year. The financial gain a successful system delivers is so rewarding, when you're working on a strategy, you are desperate to prove it works. You understand by using a greater ‘risk reward’ ratio, half your trades can stop out. But the desperation to prove the system will work clouds the bigger picture. When you then look deep into the human psyche and realise we have an inbuilt desire to want to be correct. It all makes it very, very, difficult to accept losing trades. So difficult in fact, ultimately, most people attempting to trade finally give up. After moving from system to system, blaming a market that's ‘out to get them’, when really, they didn't give the system a chance in the first place due to an inability to accept a losing trade. And, it isn't just accepting losing trades, it is just as important to accept every decision you make, trade or no trade. For example, let's say you're looking at the charts and you quite like the look of a EUR USD long trade. Everything is falling into place, but the chart is approaching daily resistance. Your strategy tells you not to trade a currency into daily resistance, so you wait and check the chart again in a few hours…. But when you do check, that resistance has been broken, the EUR now looks overbought. And it looks like it was a bad decision not to take the trade. But, not taking the trade was the right thing to do! I've been there myself, looking at that EUR USD chart. It's broken resistance, you think the chart looks overbought. But emotion takes over, disappointed at the thought of a missed opportunity, you place a trade. Only for the chart to pull back and stop the trade out. So, from eying up an opportunity, only to miss it. Then place a trade that stops out. You've gone from the possibility of a winning trade, straight to a losing trade. Every decision is made in a particular moment, with the information you have at the time. Once a decision is made, anything can subsequently happen to alter the trajectory of your decision. Making it look like a bad decision, but it wasn't. More often than not, a chart will at least pause or pullback from daily resistance. So, probability suggests it was a good decision not to trade the EUR into daily resistance in the first place. It's important to distinguish between making a ‘good decision in the moment’ but it ends up looking like a bad decision. And simply making a bad decision. You can then find ‘inner peace’ with every decision you make. For me, it all comes down to a simple sentence: Make decisions you would stand by, regardless of the outcome. It's a fairly throw away sentence, but I'm asking you to really read it and take in its meaning. It's the final piece of my trading jigsaw. It's how I come to the conclusion of every decision I make in the market. And my barometer for knowing when to enter a trade. Essentially, every trade I place,I assess the potential risks (what could cause the trade to stop out?) and I ask myself… If this trade does stops out. Would I still think it was a good idea to place the trade? As long as you are truthful with yourself…is this decision really aligned with my strategy? Or am I placing this trade out of emotion? If you can truthfully say my strategy suggests this is a ‘good decision’’, you can sit comfortably knowing you've done the best you can at that particular moment in time. I'll leave you with another example of making a decision you would stand by, regardless of the outcome. Using an example from recent history. The week starting Monday 21 September 2024 was a positive week for ‘risk sentiment'. The federal reserve has recently announced the beginning of a rate cut cycle, inflation is coming down and company earnings have on the whole remained robust through difficult times. All in all, the market is in a good mood and the ‘risk currencies’ are reacting according to correlations. Which means the JPY has been particularly weak. And a good currency to ‘short’ all week. But on Friday, the surprise outcome of an election in Japan gave strength to the JPY as the election winner is expected to be more ‘hawkish' than the market has anticipated. And any ‘short JPY’ trades at the time would have been stopped out. The point I'm trying to make is…to be in a short JPY trade before the surprise news was most definitely a good decision. But events outside your control conspired to stop the trade out, making it look like the trade was a bad decision. But it was a ‘good decision’ in the moment the trade was taken. Combining fundamental and technical analysis to make your decision. Once you've identified the fundamental cause of a ‘move’, it's a case of finding the correct time to enter a trade. I do this by placing a stop loss at a point I think invalidates the trade idea. This is where ‘technical analysis’ is needed. My version of technical analysis is to use Bill Williams fractals (5 candle swing). I don't use any other indicators on my charts. In the past, I've tried them all (twice) and whilst it is very enticing to think MACD or RSI or Bolling bands, ect will tell you when a chart will go up. Ultimately, I spent a lot of time and effort to come to the realisation a 5 candle swing is the best method to use when deciding when to enter a trade. I'm particularly fond of 1hr swings. But there are occasions I'll go down to 15min depending on the velocity and narrative behind the ‘move’. It takes time and dedication to really master the psychology to only enter a trade when you can confidently say: “if this trade stops out, I'll still think I should have taken it”. But if you focus on making ‘good decisions’ day after day. Whether it's to place a trade or to wait for a better entry price. Whatever the outcome of that decision, overtime, results will work in your favour. And you will have learned to realise you can put aside the need to be right, it's not the outcome of the decision that matters. The only thing that matters is making ‘a good decision in the moment’. Then, by using that higher risk reward ratio on each trade… you can let the account take care of itself. That's how I found my ‘inner trading peace’.
Education
by johnelfedforexblog
XAUUSD – 4H Outlook | Key Levels, Plans & Intraday BiasRecent candles indicate bull exhaustion at the descending trendline, with wicks rejecting higher prices. Momentum is slowing, and the chart suggests a potential short-term pullback into the support box before choosing direction. Price is reacting to a cluster of key levels between: 4143–4130 zone (orange +blue support block) 4170 trend line resistance 4209 / 4231 resistance zone (upper yellow levels) 4268 major resistance (top of channel) Bearish factors Repeated rejection at descending red trendline. Breakdown from minor rising sub-structure. Price struggling to maintain above 4170–4180. Bullish factors Larger trend still inside a long-term ascending channel. Strong support at 4130–4143 (multiple bounces). High-timeframe buyers likely active below 4120. ✅ [ b]Plan A — Bearish Retracement to Buy Lower (Preferred Based on Current Price Action) Idea: Price breaks below 4143–4130 to sweep liquidity, taps lower channel support, then reverses back upward. Triggers: Break below 4130 (blue zone) Wick rejection or bullish reversal pattern at 4100–4080 Touch of channel support (green path in chart) Targets: TP1: 4130–4143 retest TP2: 4170–4180 TP3: 4209 / 4231 (major mid-range resistance) Invalidation: A 4H close below 4080 signals deeper downside toward 4043. ✅ Plan B — Support Hold and Breakout Continuation (Bullish Scenario) Idea: The purple support zone holds cleanly, price forms higher lows, breaks above the descending trendline, and resumes the uptrend. Triggers: Strong bounce from 4143–4130 Break and 4H close above 4175–4180 Clear breakout above the red downward trendline (purple projected path) Targets: TP1: 4209 TP2: 4231 TP3: 4268 (channel top / major resistance) Invalidation: A clean 4H close below 4130 shifts bias back to Plan A.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WarroomXYZ
1
Forex Trading USDCHF BASIC HH‑LL STRATEGY 1. IDENTIFY TREND – Look for a series of HIGHER HIGHS + HIGHER LOWS (up‑trend) or LOWER LOWS + LOWER HIGHS (down‑trend). 2. ENTRY – Enter long when price breaks above the latest HIGH in an up‑trend; enter short when price breaks below the latest LOW in a down‑trend. 3. STOP LOSS – Place it just below the most recent LOW (for longs) or above the most recent HIGH (for shorts). 4. TARGET – Measure the height of the previous swing and project that distance from the entry point, or use a trailing stop to lock profits as the trend continues. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This setup is shared for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own analysis and apply proper risk management before trading any setup.
Short
by karimdanish30
BTC Playbook: 93k Pivot vs 98k Path__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Price is pressing into a well-defined 92,800–93,500 resistance band while macro leadership stays risk-off, making this a decision area. Momentum is rebuilding off 89k supports, but higher timeframes lean cautious until acceptance above 93,150. Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral with a tactical counter-trend bounce; sustained strength needs a clean break-and-hold above 93,150. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 92,800–93,500 (240 Pivot High zone), 98,115 (W Pivot Low), 107,474 (D Pivot High) - Supports (HTF/ITF): 90,500–90,800 (recent base), 89,012 (240 Pivot Low), 86,261 (240 Pivot Low) Volumes: Moderate on 1D/12H; normal on intraday (6H/4H/2H/1H). Multi-timeframe signals: 1D Up vs 12H/6H/4H/2H Down; intraday 1H Up but into HTF resistance. Defer to 12H Down unless 93,150 is accepted with persistence. Harvest zones: 80,200 (Cluster A) / 76,600–77,100 (Cluster B) — ideal deep dip-buying areas for inverse pyramiding if market overreacts. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral sell — confirms the cautious stance under resistance and argues for patience on longs. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant read is neutral-sell into HTF resistance; adopt a reactive approach: fade failed breakouts, flip to long only on confirmed acceptance. Global bias: Neutral-sell while below 93,150; bias flips constructive on ≥2H/4H acceptance above 93,150. Invalidation of the fade: sustained hold above 93,150. Opportunities: - Tactical sell: Fade 92,800–93,500 if 2H/4H prints rejection and volume fades; add on loss of 91,000 toward 89,012. - Breakout buy: Engage on ≥2H/4H close above 93,150 with successful retest; first target 98,115. - Reactive buy: Probe 89,012 only on strong reversal signal (≥2H) with improving volumes. Risk zones / invalidations: - Break below 89,012 would invalidate reactive longs and opens 86,261 risk. - Sustained hold above 93,150 would invalidate shorts from the 92,800–93,500 fade zone. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Liquidity tailwind: PBOC injections + equities <2% from ATH, but thin holiday liquidity can distort moves. - ETFs: 7-day BTC spot ETF flows negative despite a small daily inflow — headwind near resistance. - Rates: Elevated Fed cut odds support dips, but headline risks (stablecoins/geopolitics) can spark risk-off spikes. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): 80,200 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): 75,400–77,000 (-6%/-4% below Palier 1) (Cluster B included) → reinforcement - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (93,150) - Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low (not provided) or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF (93,150) on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes are mixed with 1D Up versus 12H Down; execution should respect the 12H filter until 93,150 is reclaimed with persistence. 12H/6H/4H/2H: Downtrend bias pressing into 92,800–93,500 supply; rejection here favors a rotation to 91,000 then 89,012. Acceptance and hold above 93,150 unlocks 98,115. 1D/1H: 1D Up but capped by 93,150; 1H Up is counter-trend into HTF resistance, so expect chop under 93k unless volume expands on breakout. Confluences/divergences: Persistent HTF resistance at 93,150 aligns with risk-off macro; 1D strength is an exception that requires flow/volume confirmation to extend. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is cautiously constructive on liquidity, but BTC-specific flows are not yet a tailwind, keeping technical resistance meaningful. Macro events: PBOC liquidity injections aid risk; S&P 500 near ATH with thin US holiday liquidity; elevated cut odds into December create a soft landing narrative but headline risk persists. Bitcoin analysis: BTC reclaimed 90k with negative/neutral funding; overhead supply 91.9–93k; ETF 7-day flows negative, dampening confidence at resistance. On-chain data: Liquidity pockets discussed around low 80ks; heavy puts near mid-80ks; recovery impulses need stronger demand inflow and key cost-basis reclaims. Expected impact: If ETF flows stabilize and price accepts above 93,150, path opens toward 98,115; otherwise the 92,800–93,500 zone favors tactical fades. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is testing a critical resistance while macro risk-on is tentative and flow support is uneven. - Trend: Neutral-to-bearish below 93,150; constructive only on confirmed acceptance above. - Setup: Fade 92,800–93,500 rejections; switch long on ≥2H/4H hold above 93,150 targeting 98,115. - Macro: ETF 7-day flows remain negative, capping conviction at resistance despite broader liquidity support. Stay patient at the boss gate; wait for a clean unlock above 93,150 or harvest the rejection.
by Ox_kali
TWST bull ready to unleash?Genomics: The Next Decade’s Most Underpriced Revolution? If you had to pick one scientific field with the potential to redefine medicine, agriculture, and consumer health over the next decade, genomics should be at the top of the list. At its core, genomics is the study of the entire genetic code—our DNA—and how it influences everything from disease risk to drug response to crop resilience. Modern genomics companies offer far more than ancestry reports. The industry now spans three major pillars: 1. Genetic sequencing and analysis. 2. Personalised health and diagnostics. 3. Therapeutics and gene editing. What's going for the Genomic Industry now heading into 2026 vs crushing years following 2021: Regulation is maturing. The FDA is warming to gene-edited therapies, and reimbursement frameworks are slowly aligning with personalised medicine. Costs are collapsing. Sequencing is approaching the “$10 genome,” unlocking applications that were previously uneconomical. AI accelerates discovery. Large-scale biological datasets are exactly the domain where AI thrives, shrinking timelines for drug development and variant interpretation. In terms of current rating, we anticipate momentum may shift to a 'bullish' reading if price can push and hold above $38.00 and note significant risk should price fall below the $27.50 mark. We're inspired to bring you the latest developments across worldwide markets, helping you look in the right place, at the right time. Thank you for reading! Stay tuned for further updates, and we look forward to being of service along your trading & investing journey... Disclaimer: As always, please note all information contained within this post and all other Bullfinder-official Tradingview content is strictly for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. Please DYOR & Consult your licensed financial advisors before acting on any information contained within this post, or any other Bullfinder-official TV content.
NASDAQ:TWSTLong
by Bullfinder-official
Gold Awaits Breakout as Tight Range Consolidation ContinuesSince yesterday, gold has repeatedly encountered resistance near 4168, with intraday highs reaching around 4173. This sustained narrow-range consolidation is mainly driven by two factors: a need to absorb short-term selling pressure and reduced market activity due to the Thanksgiving holiday, which together have limited price volatility. From a daily perspective, the bullish structure remains intact, and rate-cut expectations continue to strengthen. Under such conditions, and barring any major unexpected news, the market is likely to see a directional breakout either tomorrow or early next week. On the technical side, the 4H MACD shows signs of a potential bearish crossover, but the 1H and 2H structures remain constructive. As time progresses, the strength in the shorter timeframes is likely to offset the temporary weakness shown on the 4H chart. In the short term, watch the 4148–4138 support zone, while resistance remains at 4168. Short-term trading can focus on the 4138–4168 range. A breakout to the upside would open targets at 4180–4200, while a downside break would turn attention toward the 4120–4100 support area. As long as the daily structure remains intact (trend support at 4078–4064), gold still has the potential to reclaim levels above 4300. Overall, the current short-term volatility is more sentiment-driven and does not indicate a trend reversal. Combining rate-cut expectations, DXY trajectory, and gold’s technical structure, the recent pullback appears to be a healthy correction within an ongoing uptrend. If upcoming economic data continues to support rate-cut expectations, gold is likely to resume its upward movement after retesting key support areas. However, fluctuations in peace-talk expectations may introduce additional volatility. Trading Note: If rate-cut expectations continue to build and gold rallies sharply before the rate decision, be cautious of a “sell-the-news” pullback. This would be a normal technical correction, and as long as key support levels hold, the broader bullish trend will remain intact.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by China_MsWang
NQ1! – Bearish Descending Channel, Short Setup Active Nasdaq 100 futures remain trapped inside a bearish descending channel on the 4H chart after failing to reclaim the 25,500 zone. Key points: Series of lower highs along the blue upper trendline Strong rejection every time price touches the channel top Support cluster 25,000–24,800 tested multiple times but showing weakening bounces RSI slipping toward oversold, but momentum still favors sellers Bearish plan Current price rejecting the upper channel again around 25,300–25,320 → Short entry zone 25,280–25,320 Target 1: 25,000 Target 2: 24,800 (lower channel boundary) Target 3: 24,500 (channel breakdown target) Stop-loss above 25,450 (clear invalidation) Risk/Reward → 1:1.8 average Bullish reversal only on strong break and close above 25,400–25,450 with volume (then first target 25,800). As long as we stay inside this channel, bias is short. Holiday-thinned liquidity can accelerate the move on Friday open. Short setup live.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Yforex123
XAUUSD – Bullish Ascending Triangle Ready for Breakout After a strong impulsive move from 3,600 to 4,250, Gold is now consolidating inside a clear ascending triangle on the 4H timeframe. Key observations: Higher lows are perfectly respected along the rising yellow trendline Upper resistance (blue descending line) is getting tighter → classic compression Multiple tests of the 4,000 psychological zone turned it into strong support Bullish scenario Break and 4H close above 4,165–4,175 → triggers triangle breakout Target 1: 4,200 Target 2: 4,250 (recent swing high) Target 3: 4,300+ (measured move) Stop-loss below 3,980 (invalidates the triangle) Risk/Reward → 1:1.8 to 1:3 depending on scaling Bearish invalidation only on decisive break below 4,000 with volume (then target 3,880–3,800). Until then, bias remains firmly bullish. Watching for post-Thanksgiving momentum on Friday. Long setup active. #XAUUSD #Gold #Bullish
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Yforex123
Is Boeing's Defense Bet America's New Arsenal?Boeing's recent stock appreciation stems from a fundamental strategic pivot toward defense contracts, driven by intensifying global security tensions. The company has secured major wins, including the F-47 Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter contract worth over $20 billion and a $4.7 billion deal to supply AH-64E Apache helicopters to Poland, Egypt, and Kuwait. These contracts position Boeing as central to U.S. military modernization efforts aimed at countering China's rapid expansion of stealth fighters like the J-20, which now rivals American fifth-generation aircraft production rates.   The F-47 program represents Boeing's redemption after losing the Joint Strike Fighter competition two decades ago. Through its Phantom Works division, Boeing developed and flight-tested full-scale prototypes in secret, validating designs through digital engineering methods that dramatically accelerated development timelines. The aircraft features advanced broadband stealth technology and will serve as a command node controlling autonomous drones in combat, fundamentally changing air warfare doctrine. Meanwhile, the modernized Apache helicopter has found renewed relevance in NATO's Eastern flank defense strategy and counter-drone operations, securing production lines through 2032.   However, risks remain in execution. The KC-46 tanker program continues facing technical challenges with its Remote Vision System, now delayed until 2027. The F-47's advanced variable-cycle engines are two years behind schedule due to supply chain constraints. Industrial espionage, including cases where secrets were sold to China, threatens technological advantages. Despite these challenges, Boeing's defense portfolio provides counter-cyclical revenue streams that hedge against commercial aviation volatility, creating long-term financial stability as global rearmament enters what analysts describe as a sustained "super-cycle" driven by great power competition.
NYSE:BALong
by UDIS_View
Morocco & Algeria Deal May Peace & Blessings be Upon You , Morocco & Algeria will sign a deal, but it will include contingencies. This is Guaranteed. Very soon it will be in media. Once you are free don’t forget to take responsibility during Policy/Acts Making period. People should express gratitude to the Advisors who attempted to prevent this " war.. " . Since Advisors are human, showing appreciation motivates them to work even harder. Please check our last year 2024 posts / books: “Jul 12 2024 · 7:05 AM: No New Global Investor should Purchase or Enter the Global Market right now. Let all Election finish , as Huge Global Laws are coming on 2025.” Related industries must consider this Point in their annual research. Check our “VIP Letter” for Entry/Exit Strategy. > Smart people position themselves.> Stop asking what's going up or down today start asking why >Wealth doesn't come from predicting the future perfectly it comes from preparing for a range of outcomes and positioning yourself accordingly right now with the market = Win isn't about avoiding risk it's about managing it intelligently Thank You Sulaiman Solution
ECONOMICS:DZGDP
by MdSharif61
SOL Fights Back After Breakdown – Is This Just a Relief Rally?SOL bounced from 125 lows but remains under key bearish OB zones between 180 and 220. Structure is still broken, and price is climbing into resistance. MACD is curling up, and RSI pushed above 50 for the first time since early November — but there's no market structure break yet. This move might be a relief bounce unless bulls reclaim 160 and start forming higher highs. Until then, bias remains cautious. Bias: Neutral to Bearish Pair: SOL/USDT Timeframe: 12H This is not financial advice, only data analysis. Please consult a qualified financial professional for personalized guidance.
CRYPTO:SOLUSD
by tomas_jntx
XRP Still Trapped Below 3.00 – Market Structure Remains BearishXRP continues to struggle under the 3.00–3.20 bearish OB zone. Multiple MSBs printed on the way down, and price is yet to reclaim any key level. MACD is barely recovering and RSI is hovering just above 50, showing weak bullish momentum. As long as XRP trades below 2.40–2.50, this bounce is just noise in a broader downtrend. Bias: Bearish Pair: XRP/USDT Timeframe: 12H This is not financial advice, only data analysis. Please consult a qualified financial professional for personalized guidance.
CRYPTO:XRPUSDShort
by tomas_jntx