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Fundamental Analysis

What FICO Insiders Know That You Don't-134 Insider Sells, 0 BuysTL;DR: FICO is down 30% from its highs while the market is making all-time highs. Looks like a bargain, right? Wrong. Here's what Wall Street doesn't tell you: $1.3 billion negative equity, 134 insider sells (ZERO buys), regulatory pressure, and a monopoly under scrutiny. This isn't a dip to buy—it's a warning sign. Here's why- FICO: The "Perfect" Stock That's Anything But Current Price: ~$1,970 (down ~30% from ATH of ~$2,800)
Market Cap: ~$50 billion
P/E Ratio: ~106
Insider Activity: 0 buys, 134 sells
Shareholder Equity: Negative $1.3 billion Everyone sees a stock that's "on sale." I see a stock that's priced for perfection with a sword hanging over it. Here's why. 1. Negative Equity: The Balance Sheet Is Broken FICO has negative shareholder equity of -$1.3 billion. Let me translate: The company owes more than it owns! How is that possible for a company with a $50 billion market cap? Debt + Share Buybacks. FICO has been aggressively buying back its own stock—using borrowed money. They've loaded up on debt to prop up the stock price, and now the balance sheet is structurally impaired. Why This Matters: * If business slows down, they can't sell assets to cover debt—there are no assets. * If regulators crack down (more on that below), the stock could collapse—and there's no equity cushion to absorb the blow. * This is a high-risk, high-leverage situation masquerading as a "quality growth stock." 2. Insider Activity: 0 Buys, 134 Sells Let that sink in... 134 insider transactions. Every single one was a SELL !! The people running the company—the ones with the most information—are heading for the exits. Not one insider thought, "Hmm, our stock is down 30%, maybe I should buy some." That's a flashing red light. Why This Matters: Insiders sell for lots of reasons—taxes, diversification, college tuition. But when every single insider is selling and no one is buying? That's not diversification. That's a coordinated exit. They know something. And they're not sticking around to find out what happens next. 3. Regulatory Risk: The Monopoly Is Under Scrutiny FICO has a near-monopoly on credit scoring in the U.S. For decades, that's been their moat. But now? * The CFPB is investigating their pricing practices * Congress is asking questions about whether FICO's dominance hurts consumers * Alternative credit scoring models (like VantageScore) are gaining traction If regulators decide to break up FICO's monopoly—or force them to lower prices—the entire bull case collapses. Why This Matters: FICO's valuation is built on the assumption that they can keep raising prices forever because they have no competition. But what if that changes? What if the government says, "You can't charge $30 per score anymore. Now it's $10." Suddenly, revenue drops by 60%. And with a P/E of 106, the stock doesn't have room for error. 4. The Valuation Trap: Priced for Perfection P/E Ratio: 106 That means investors are paying $106 for every $1 of earnings. For context: * The S&P 500 average P/E is ~20-25 * A "growth stock" P/E might be 40-50 * FICO's P/E is 106 What This Means: The market is pricing FICO as if: * Revenue will keep growing at 15-20% annually (despite regulatory headwinds) * Margins will stay high (despite pricing pressure) * Nothing will go wrong (despite insiders selling) That's not investing. That's betting on a miracle. And if FICO misses earnings next week? Or if the CFPB announces new regulations? Watch out below. 5. The Technical Picture: Relative Weakness Here's what most retail investors miss: FICO is down 30% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are making all-time highs. That's called relative weakness. It means the "smart money" is rotating OUT of FICO and INTO stronger stocks. Why This Matters: When a stock underperforms during a bull market, it's not a "buying opportunity." It's a warning sign. If FICO can't rally when everything else is rallying, what happens when the market turns? It'll be the first one to get crushed. What Wall Street Won't Tell You Here's what the analysts say: "FICO is a high-quality monopoly with pricing power. The dip is a buying opportunity." Here's what I see: * Negative equity = balance sheet risk * 134 insider sells, 0 buys = management doesn't believe in the stock * Regulatory pressure = the monopoly is under attack * P/E of 106 = priced for perfection * Relative weakness = the market is telling you to stay away This isn't a dip to buy. It's a warning sign. The Trade (If You're a Trader) If I were still trading, here's what I'd do: Short FICO into every bounce. Why? * Earnings are next week—high risk of a miss * Relative weakness means the stock is structurally broken * Insiders are selling—they know something * Any negative news (regulatory, earnings, guidance) sends this lower Stop-loss: decide for yourself, I don't know your situation. 
Target: $600 (next structure level) The Investor Perspective If you're a long-term investor, ask yourself: 1. Do I want to own a company with negative equity? 2. Do I trust management when every insider is selling? 3. Am I comfortable with regulatory risk? 4. Can I afford to wait 5-10 years for this to "come back" if it crashes? If the answer to any of those is "no," then move on. There are better opportunities. There are safer bets. There are stocks that aren't priced for perfection with a regulatory sword hanging over them. The Lesson Most investors see FICO down 30% and think: "Wow, it's on sale!" I see a stock that's overvalued, overleveraged, and under investigation. And when insiders are selling by the truckload while retail is buying the dip? That's how fortunes are transferred from the impatient to the patient. Or, in this case, from the uninformed to the informed. What do you think? Are you buying the dip in FICO? Or staying away? Drop a comment below. Earnings are next week. Let's see what happens... #FICO #StockMarket #Investing #InsiderSelling #RegulatoryRisk #Trading #OnlyTrade2Win #BalanceSheet #MarketAnalysis #WallStreet
NYSE:FICOShort
by onlytrade2win
DXY Near Key Liquidity Pools — Which One Gets Taken First?NY Session Update The Dollar opens New York trading holding firm in mid-range, rotating around the 0.50 region near 98.828. The session begins with a steady structure, and flow remains shaped primarily by the broader macro tone rather than intraday volatility. The Dollar spent the week under steady pressure as investors reassessed U.S. growth momentum. Several datasets were delayed, and the backlog created uncertainty around how strong the underlying economy actually is. The tone from the Federal Reserve shifted subtly toward patience — less focus on tightening, more on maintaining optionality. At the same time, global risk appetite improved. Equities held firm, and capital rotated into other major currencies, reducing the Dollar’s safe-haven advantage. That combination — softer growth signals, stabilizing risk, and non-committal policy language — kept the Dollar pinned in mid-range structure. Looking ahead, the next meaningful movement will likely come from surprise prints rather than scheduled events. Employment data, inflation momentum, and backlog clears remain the pressure points. Until those catalysts hit, the Dollar stays in observation mode: stable, compressed, and sensitive to macro tone rather than intraday noise. NEXT WEEK’S U.S. DOLLAR DRIVERS Inflation releases – Headline and core CPI/PPI data will test momentum in pricing pressure. Employment & labour data – Wage momentum, participation and unemployment trends remain under the microscope. Policy tone from the Federal Reserve – Speeches and any shifts in guidance around timing will carry enhanced weight. Global risk-sentiment flow – Equity performance and risk-asset appetite at the NY open will continue to influence USD positioning. Data backlog clarity – Delayed prints and residual effects from previous disruptions may create surprises in either direction, affecting Dollar flow. CORE5 Pillar Overview MSM — Market Structure Mapping: Price remains inside weekly balance, with activity clustered around 98.776 — consistent with mid-range conditions. VFA — Volume Flow Analytics: The 4H anchored volume node at 98.725 continues to mark the area of most participation. OFD — Order Flow Dynamics: Recent activity shows hesitation to move deeper into the lower inefficiency zones. PEM — Precision Execution Modeling: Liquidity context remains defined by areas near 98.30 and 99.30, with the broader range limits at 97.672 and 99.985. This provides the wider map for understanding structural rotation. CORE5 Rule of the Day Mid-range moves feed ego, not equity. — — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
AEROUSDT 4H – EMA Deviation Long on Base Liquidity Engine1. Setup Aerodrome is still the main liquidity flywheel on Base and is now set to merge with Velodrome into a single AERO token that will also live on Ethereum and Circle’s ARC. After the post-news flush, price on Bybit perps sits around 0.84–0.85, below the 4H EMA band and inside my demand + deviation zone. I’m taking a 4H EMA Deviation long with a swing horizon of ~1–3 days. 2. Technical context (4H) The local trend topped near 1.10–1.12, where multiple higher-TF order blocks sit. From there we got a clean breakdown through the 4H EMA ribbon and a series of lower lows into the green demand cluster around 0.82–0.84. Current trade levels on the chart: Entry: 0.842 Stop: 0.758 (below demand and the last capitulation wick) Target: 1.014–1.02 (4H EMA re-test + prior consolidation / supply) That’s roughly +20.5% upside vs −10.3% downside, R:R ≈ 2:1. The 4H deviation sits above its average “stretched” reading, so the setup fits my mean-reversion rules rather than chasing trend. 3. Strategy statistics – 4H EMA Dev Long (AERO) Backtest on this pair / timeframe: 26 trades, long only. Winrate: 80.77% Avg PnL per trade: +8.24% Avg winner: +10.98% Avg loser: −3.28% → win/loss size ratio ≈ 3.34 Largest winner: +25.17%, largest loser: −5.67% Avg duration: 24 bars, winners around 21 bars, losers ~36 bars Historically, losers are shallow but drag out longer; if this bounce doesn’t materialise within a typical 20–24 bar window, I’d rather cut than sit through slow bleed. 4. Fundamentals & narrative Active positives right now: Merge with Velodrome into one protocol and token (“AERO”) launching on Ethereum + Circle’s ARC. Existing Aerodrome holders are set to receive 94.5% of the new supply – strong alignment for current AERO holders. Aerodrome controls ~53% of Base’s ~$4.7B DeFi TVL via ve(3,3) mechanics. About 45% of AERO is locked with an average remaining lock of 2.8 years, and protocols compete for veAERO via $2–4M weekly bribes, generating 35–45% APR from real fees, not emissions. Narrative kicker: deposit tokens from JPMorgan reportedly already operating on Base, with the chain framed as a “default banking L2”. If that flow scales, first-order liquidity beneficiaries are AERO, lending, and major DEX routes on Base. Expired but still relevant context: Programmatic buybacks via the Public Goods Fund – over 150M AERO acquired and 4y-locked across PGF, Flight School, Relay. Aerodrome crossed into deflation in September 2025, with cumulative $400M+ fees and a model where 100% of DEX revenue goes to veAERO lockers. Large strategic lockers include Coinbase and Animoca, strengthening the “institutional Base” story. Score: BBB+ / Positive, with key risks in narrative overextension (Base banking thesis needs confirmation), merge execution, and general market beta. 5. Trade plan & invalidation Idea: play a mean-reversion bounce from 4H demand + EMA deviation back into the 1.00+ supply zone, while the Base / merge narrative is still hot and fee flows stay strong. If price closes 4H below 0.758 and can’t quickly reclaim the EMA ribbon, I treat the setup as invalid and step aside – that would indicate a deeper reset of the whole move from 0.70. If we tag 1.00–1.02, I’ll realise most of the position there and only trail a small runner in case the merge and Base catalysts trigger a new leg to fresh highs. Not financial advice – just documenting a systematic EMA Deviation long on one of the key Base liquidity primitives.
Long
by Goldfinch_song
11/14/25 - $btcs - Hard to rec vs. sbet > bmnr11/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:BTCS Hard to rec vs. sbet > bmnr - some of the tracking websites are applying their smooth brain to calculating the true implied mnav here which is not as juicy as might appear - i'm getting something like .85 which is way different than the 0.55 - 0.6 that i see being posted around - don't ignore the diluted shares AND don't ignore some of these weird "V" class shares that while not included "until 2027" (and likely you can still make money if underlying goes higher -> as is always the case for DATs)... you have better horses - BMNR is the gold standard, but at 1.1x mnav vs. SBET's (silver) at 0.83x as of writing keeps me much more SBET heavy - i will write more about my YE thinking into '26 but here's a TL;DR that i might repeat in future notes so/if helpful. - 2026-2030 IMVHO will be all about identifying NETWORKS that BENEFIT from AI - it's super hard for mkt to look thru disruption that may happen in software. will be winners, many have run (e.g. pltr), many will thrive (perhaps DUOL) but it's hard for the market to agree w your thinking (even if you had a crystal ball). - need stories that are augmented by AI - networks are hard to rebuild. - BTC is a fortress network for money - ETH Is a fortress network for information and "doing things with money" and wallstreet has voted - so you're getting the benefit of 4 years of ETH development and hindsight of the network gaining MORE momemtum than i've ever seen... and paying the same px as 4 yrs ago. rarely do u get a bite of the apple like this - will see high vol - derivs like this BTCS, sure, will benefit - but i always like the best horses - again. a LOT of vol. but the best days are ahead. - i have more conviction about ETH into the next several years than i did on NXT and go check that out. those of u who followed knew that was my big horse into this year. - and i like ETH more. - spot/ ETF best if you're new to this, k? - if u want some bend, check out SBET and BMNR - be well. let's continue this into YE and... 2026+ V
NASDAQ:BTCS
by VROCKSTAR
Is a gold price collapse signaling the end of the bull market?Today's market is likely to continue its downward trend. The strategy should be to sell on rallies. The primary focus is on the 4200 level, a key support/resistance level. If the downward trend continues, short positions can be initiated near 4200, with an initial target of 4145 and a further target of the key support at 4100. Only a decisive break below 4100 would confirm the formation of a secondary high. If the rebound holds above 4200, be wary of a large-scale market correction. Short-term resistance is around 4210; a break below this level would target yesterday's high, with the possibility of a second test to confirm the secondary high. Today's market is prone to surprises. While the technicals suggest a continuation of the downward trend, sudden fluctuations should be monitored. Initial resistance is around 4100; a short position can be initiated if it holds. Further upside targets are 4230-4240, where short positions can be initiated. Support is around 4100; a long position can be initiated if it holds.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Daniel_PrimeFX
Eos Energy Enterprises (EOSE) —Zinc LDES for the AI-Powered GridCompany Overview: Eos NASDAQ:EOSE builds zinc-based long-duration energy storage (LDES) for utility-scale and commercial use—an alternative to Li-ion with safer chemistry, broader temperature tolerance, and U.S. manufacturing. Key Catalysts: AI-Energy Momentum: Major wins include Talen Energy collaboration and a 228 MWh Frontier Power order—validating Z3™ systems for data centers and grid reliability. Manufacturing Scale-Up: Project AMAZE set to double capacity to 2 GWh by Q4’25, supported by state incentives and an expanding domestic footprint. Revenue Visibility: Pipeline includes an $18.8B opportunity backlog and $672.5M firm orders, featuring 750 MWh with MN8 Energy—supporting multi-year growth. Why It Matters: ✔️ Non-Li-ion diversification for utilities and hyperscalers ✔️ U.S.-built supply chain + incentives ✔️ LDES fit for peaker replacement, resiliency, and 24/7 clean power Investment Outlook: Bullish above: $12.50–$13.00 Target: $40.00–$42.00 — driven by orders converting to revenue, capacity ramp, and AI/data-center demand for reliable long-duration storage. 📌 EOSE — powering AI-era reliability with zinc-based long duration storage.
NASDAQ:EOSELong
by Richtv_official
WMT - Overvalued - CEO Retiring - What Next?Walmart demonstrates exceptional operational strength with impressive 25.3% net income growth and consistent earnings performance, supported by successful digital transformation and strong market positioning. Here's a hard truth... these positive fundamentals are overshadowed by valuation concerns that appear unsustainable for a mature retail business. The assessment of overvaluation centers on elevated multiples including a 40.6 P/E ratio and 62.3 P/FCF ratio, which significantly exceed historical norms for the retail sector. Discounted cash flow models consistently indicate substantial premiums to fair value estimates, ranging from 62% to 153% above intrinsic value calculations. This valuation disconnect suggests the market has priced in optimistic growth expectations that may be difficult to sustain . (Sound familiar? It should) While Walmart maintains excellent defensive characteristics and operational momentum, current price levels present limited upside potential and meaningful downside risk . I'm going to have a "hold" recommendation reflecting my view that existing shareholders should maintain positions given the company's strong fundamentals, but new capital should await more attractive entry points . I would be much more confident if we were closer to the 38.2% fibonacci pullback around $97 or what would be even better would be $90-$93 which is at the 61.8% and 50% pullback, respectively.
NYSE:WMT
by bitdoctor
BTC - Fear & GreedAs Bitcoin falls below $100,000, now is a good time to check the Fear & Greed index to map out the sentiment around the move, and to compare similar scores at other places in this bull run move. As painful as it may be, buying the fear and selling the green is an effective strategy. Every local bottom since the start of 2023 has had a F&G score below 50: Jan 26th 2023 - 26 March 10th 2023 - 34 June 14th 2023 - 46 Sept 11th 2023 - 40 July 7th 2024 - 29 Aug 5th 2024 - 26 Sept 6th 2024 - 22 Feb 26th 2025 - 21 March 10th 2025 - 20 April 8th 2025 - 24 Today - 16 As of writing the current fear and greed score is lower than it has been for nearly three years! What is important to note is that bullish momentum has faded but structure remains (higher lows + higher highs). IF the pattern continues then this is a good place to buy historically, obviously that does not guarantee the same pattern will continue to play out but if the bull market is still alive then this level usually gets a bullish reaction. The timing also adds another layer of complexity as the US Government shutdown is ending. Bitcoin is super reactive to liquidity, once the shut down began it is clear liquidity did drop resulting in price falling. This correlation implies an expected rise in liquidity and Bitcoins price along with it. For the bears the target area is $89,000-$92,000. In my opinion this will cap the downside at least temporarily.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ProR35
1
Retest Confirmed - Bitcoin Analysis (2D)Hello everyone. I must say that it's not very easy to say it loud but for a short period of time, the Bulls have lost the fight. According to several factors, the next two months will be blood-colored in the entire market. Get ready to bleed. Because your portfolio will. So will you. Okay, but why? Let's see; Fundamental Factors: -The USA is still creating more tension around the globe. Only last week, the USA has operated a huge campaign over the Caribbean Sea. And yes, if you ARE a trader, you'll follow these kinds of events because this market is not a playground for kids. -The USA has finished its recession today but for the first time in history it took a lot of time for them to solve the problems. During the "solving" phase, the market has already calculated the fair prices for so-called "bullish news". By “bullish”, I mean reopening the USA, which is not actually bullish at all because it was never meant to be happening in the first place anyway. -Today the USA senate has talked about another export restriction for China. This actually is the trigger for today’s red candles. -The FED is still telling people the same story about inflation. Their utopian targets for inflation are not realistic and they know it as well. Powell has marked that there might be no rate cuts in December after all. Personal thoughts: There will be. In the short term? BEARISH. -Another thing to consider is the ETFs. Remember what happened in the market when BTC and ETH ETFs were listed? This is what's happening at the moment. History just repeats itself again and again. Many altcoin ETFs will be approved during this month. This will trigger another event called "accumulation". Hedge funds and other customers will seek to buy the dip. Therefore, they will push the prices of ETF-listed altcoins to the bottom so they can buy at lower prices while your portfolio melts. CEXs will also help them do so by letting them manipulate the order book via fake resistance orders. Sorry, but this is how it works. Now the fun part. Let's talk about the Technical Factors: -For this time I'll start with USDT dominance. There is not much to talk about but I'll leave a link so you can examine. The entire market will remain bearish as long as this parameter stays above 5.2%. -Another thing to keep an eye on is the S&P index, which is looking very bearish due to uncertainty around the globe and for the most part the US. -Let's get back to BTC. In previous analysis, I already explained to you what might be coming soon and we might actually have been at the end of wave 5. Well, sadly that analysis worked. Yes, sadly because I want this market to grow. At the moment we are going to see an A-B-C correction pattern and it will take a few weeks to complete. During this era, you need to be careful about two things: Don’t even think that getting a swing long position to hold for 2 years will work. You will see a correction through 110K soon but it will only be wave B. So, if you're carrying long-term hedge positions, you'll need to watch for an ENGULFING daily candle in Bitcoin around 92K. That's where the CME gap was left — also a demand area and moreover, there is Fib channel confluence. Before that “engulf” happens, I'd not suggest lowering breakeven in losing positions. The wave 5 also will be a perfect trap for newcomers and for people who don't know much about the market. Many will jump into altcoins when they're cheap, but most likely they will be cheaper around March 2026. Bitcoin has already completed its retest after breaking the lower boundary of this Fib channel. No need to overthink it. As long as Bitcoin stays below 110K, don't look for any “BULL RUN.” And if somehow Bitcoin reaches around 110K, wait for a weekly candle close. That will both confirm and trigger bullish momentum. Don't worry, you won't miss the move — you'll just confirm it. Thanks for reading, Get ready.
Short
by vs_sayin
2
Nasdaq slides down as markets wobbleNasdaq is being pushed down, driven by raising concerns about valuations of AI companies despite strong earnings from NVDA and other giants. Volatility (VIX) stays near 20 but the hard landing for Nasdaq might boost it and lead to another several days of bearish rally as shown at the chart. According to statistical studies, bearish swings for Nasdaq rarely last for more than 19-20 days, so if it continues to move down, it might reverse in 5-10 days at the statistic support level, as shown at the chart. Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own reserch and never forget to manage your risk!
WHSELFINVEST:USTECH100CFDShort
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
Gold faces a test at 4100; time to prepare for positioningGold’s Downtrend Intensifies: The decline in gold has accelerated, with the previous support at $4,150 now decisively broken. Based on prior price action, the next key support is located near $4,100, a level that the market tested twice during the earlier consolidation phase but failed to break, indicating strong structural support. At the same time, the ascending trendline also converges near this area, adding further reinforcement to the support zone. Therefore, $4,100 can be considered the key pivot level going forward. Should this level be breached, gold could face deeper downside risk, with a potential move back toward the $4,000 psychological level not out of the question. However, as noted, the $4,100 area carries significant support, so monitoring the price reaction closely will be crucial. If this level holds, long positions may be considered. If $4,100 breaks decisively, I believe momentum shorts (trend continuation trades) become viable.
TVC:GOLDLong
by James_AU
TSLA Slips Despite Record Q3 Deliveries AI Growth Play?TSLA – Financial Performance & SWOT Analysis TSLA Slips Despite Record Q3 Deliveries AI Growth Play? (1/9) Good Morning, folks! TSLA is pulling back 📉, at $ 436.33 up 7.85% YTD per October 10, 2025. AI integration shakes up this EV play , let’s dive in! 📊🔥 Tag a friend who needs this investing hack! (2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE • Last day: $ 436.33, down slightly pre-market 📉 • YTD 2025: up 7.85%, lagging S&P 500 🔄 • Q3 2025: record deliveries, but stock dips 🚀 This EV stock’s volatility, AI hype pops! 💥 (3/9) – MARKET POSITION • Market Cap: $ 1.45T, industry giant 🏆 • Avg Volume: 88.96M shares, high liquidity 💧 • Trend: high P/E amid growth expectations 👑 This asset’s dominance, holding tight! 🔒 (4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Q3 deliveries: record highs, beat estimates 💰 • Stock dip: despite beats, tax credits end 🏭 • AI focus: Robotaxi event Oct 22, autonomy push 📈 This EV move, AI-driven surge! ⚡ (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS • High volatility: beta 2.09 swings ⚠️ • Subsidies end: EV tax credit phaseout 🆚 • Market liquidations: $700M crypto-wide impact 📉 This ticker’s exposure, watch these twists! ⚠️🔄 (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • EV leadership (deliveries.): market share 🌟 • AI integration (FSD/Robotaxi.): growth edge 🤖 • Institutional demand (ETFs.): sentiment boost 👥 This asset’s edge, built tough! 💪 (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: high valuation, subsidy reliance ⚖️ • Opportunities: AI boom, EV rebound 🌍 Can this ticker beat the odds? 🎲 Reply with your take! (8/9) – POLL TIME! TSLA’s $ 436.33 value, your vibe? • Bullish: $500+ soon, AI beats 📈🚀 • Neutral: Steady, risks balanced ⚖️🛡️ • Bearish: $400 looms, subsidy hits 📉⚠️ Chime in below! 💬 Tag a friend for this poll! (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY TSLA’s $ 436.33 position shows resilience 💪, AI fuels it ⚡. Risks bite 🦈, yet dips are DCA gold 💎. We grab ‘em low, climb like pros! Gem or bust? not advice, just our spin! #TSLA #Investing #Markets #Trading #Finance #ETF #Commodities #DCA #Trends TSLA is mixed as of October 10, 2025, at $ 436.33, up 7.85% YTD per TradingView. Q3 deliveries shape its path in the EV space. Here’s a factual financial and strategic breakdown. **Financial Performance** Price Movement: YTD at $ 436.33, up 7.85%. Broader period shows pullback from highs. Q3 adds upside, with record deliveries. Volume & Market Cap: Avg volume 88.96M shares. Market cap at $ 1.45T. Key Metric: Trailing P/E 256.20, forward P/E 172.41. **SWOT Analysis** Strengths: - Record Q3 deliveries. - AI and autonomy integration. - Institutional interest. Weaknesses: - High valuation multiples. - Subsidy phaseout impact. - Recent stock pullback. Opportunities: - AI and Robotaxi growth. - EV market rebound. - New model launches. Threats: - Intense competition. - Market corrections. - Regulatory changes. **TSLA vs. SPY: Key Comparisons** | Aspect | TSLA | SPY | |--------|------|-----| | Purpose & Scope | EV and AI focus | Broad market index tracking | | Dynamics | Beta 2.09 volatility vs. lower 1.00 | Steady benchmark | | Market Position | Up 7.85% YTD, high P/E vs. S&P gains | Stable exposure | **Investor Considerations: DCA** Dollar Cost Averaging: TSLA’s volatility suits dip-buying. At $ 436.33, $10,000 buys ~23 shares; a 10% dip to $ 393 nets ~25 shares. Time in the market, not timing it, wins. **Outlook & Risks** TSLA’s $ 436.33 position shows AI edge, with delivery beats. Subsidy ends loom, yet dip grabs turn volatility into gains. AI or EV growth could sway it, but time’s our edge. Gem or fade? Depends on autonomy adoption.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by DCAChampion
Gold Weakness Showing – Sell Below 4210Gold is currently struggling to hold above the rising trendline and is trading around a key rejection zone near 4190-4200. The chart shows liquidity taken at the top and a clear weakness forming after breaking the minor structure. If price fails to reclaim and hold above 4210-20 the next move is likely a drop toward 4160 and deeper toward 4140 where the next liquidity pocket and trendline support sit. Upside remains limited unless price breaks clean above 4235-45. Bias: SELL (below 4210) Sell Zone: 4195-4210 Stop Loss: 4235 Take Profit: 4160 - 4140 If price breaks and sustains above 4245 only then bias flips to BUY. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
BTC at HTF Shelf: Execute Only on ≥2H Reversal__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Risk-off momentum drove Bitcoin into a dense multi-timeframe demand shelf, where price is probing for a reaction after losing 98k–100k. The next impulse likely comes from the battle around 95.8–95.9k and whether buyers can stage a clean reversal. Momentum: Bearish drive into HTF demand; intraday trend remains down while daily is mixed-to-up in the background. Key levels: - Resistances (12H/1D): 97,300–98,200; 100,000; 101,600–103,000 - Supports (2H/4H/12H/1D): 95,820–95,920; 95,200–95,000; 92,000 Volumes: Very high on 12H and below (sell waves); normal on 1D — momentum is flow-driven, not a pure volume vacuum. Multi-timeframe signals: 12H/6H/4H/2H/1H downtrends; 1D uptrend — execution should respect 12H Down unless ≥2H prints a confirmed reversal at 95.8–95.9k. Harvest zones: 95,900 (Cluster A) / 95,000–95,200 (Cluster B) — ideal dip-buy zones for inverse pyramiding if a ≥2H reversal confirms. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral Sell — confirms the risk-off push and argues for patience on longs unless the cluster defends with real follow-through. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ We operate in a corrective, risk-off tape pressing into HTF demand; take a tactical stance and let ≥2H confirmation lead. Global bias: Neutral Sell while under 98,000–100,000; key invalidation for shorts = reclaim and close above 98,000 with follow-through. Opportunities: - Buy: Only on a ≥2H bullish reversal from 95,800–95,900; target 96,600–97,000 then 97,800–98,200. - Breakout: Reclaim >98,000 with momentum → ride into 100,000 then 101,600–103,000. - Tactical sell: Fade failed retests at 97,800–98,200 or a ≥2H close below 95,800 with a failed retest. Risk zones / invalidations: A sustained ≥2H close below 95,800 would invalidate the bounce idea and open 95,200–95,000, then 92,000. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): Heavy spot ETF outflows reinforce risk-off; global equities in broad risk-off; upcoming FOMC/CPI could shift dollar/liquidity and the crypto beta. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): 95,900 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): 92,100–90,100 (-4/-6% below Palier 1) - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (97,800–98,200 zone) - Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low 95,000 or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF on rejection (97,800–98,200) + bearish trend → neutralize below R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTF uptrend (1D) conflicts with intraday downtrends, placing the burden of proof on buyers at the 95.8–95.9k shelf. 12H/6H/4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: Downtrends with very high sell-side volume; repeated tests of 95.8–95.9k raise risk of a flush if it fails, while failed breakdowns can spring sharp squeezes into 97.3–98.2k. 1D: Still up but losing momentum; the 95.8–96.0k cluster aligns with multiple prior pivot lows — a defendable shelf if buyers print a clean reversal and reclaim 97.8–98.2k. Divergences/confluences: ISPD DIV = BUY at the cluster while Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = Neutral Sell — confluence for reactive bounces only, not blind catching; wait for ≥2H confirmation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro risk-off and ETF outflows pressure BTC; the path hinges on whether flows stabilize and the 95.8–95.9k shelf holds. Macro events: Global equities are risk-off; energy/geopolitics keep volatility elevated; upcoming FOMC/CPI loom as catalysts that can swing liquidity and risk appetite. Bitcoin analysis: Breakdown below 100k with a six-month low near ~97k; weekly close vs ~101k is pivotal. Heavy ETF outflows and liquidations weigh unless key resistances are reclaimed. On-chain data: Long-term holders have been distributing, but sellers show signs of exhaustion — a setup for relief if flows stabilize and levels reclaim. Expected impact: If the shelf holds and outflows cool, a relief bounce toward 97.8–98.2k and 100k is likely; otherwise, a clean failure risks 95.0k then 92k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ We are in a corrective, high-volatility test of a dense demand cluster. - Trend: Intraday bearish within a mixed HTF context; respect 12H Down unless ≥2H prints a clean reversal. - Best setup: Reactive long only on a ≥2H reversal at 95.8–95.9k; otherwise fade failed retests at 97.8–98.2k. - Macro factor: ETF outflows are the main headwind; watch FOMC/CPI for a regime nudge. Stay patient, let the shelf prove itself, and treat each move like a boss fight — confirm the phase before committing.
Long
by Ox_kali
NASDAQ-100 (USTEC) | Elevated risks arise Sentiment: - Extreme Fear in the market (F&G = 23) - Investors are bearish (49% bearish vs 37% bullish) - Volatility elevated but not extreme (VIX 20) - Higher Put activity and an elevated put/call ratio (1.11) - Hedge funds unwinding crowded AI longs (50% market cap concentration) - Record institutional options activity positioning for Q4 2025-Q1 2027 - COT report: No latest data due to the US government shutdown Interpretation: - Put hedge elevated = cautious as institutional hedging and distributing stocks to retail - Extreme Fear + High Bearishness = Potential buying opportunity (later stage) - When sentiment is this negative, often near bottoms Fundamental: - Valuation Concerns: - 24-25x Forward P/E - vs 20-22 for 5-year average - 3.08-3.37x P/S ratio - 2.35-2.41 for 5-year average - Dec Fed cut probability is declining Technical: - USTEC broke the ascending trendline and EMA21, indicating potential mean reversion to EMA78, which is just above the support cluster at around 24000. - Breaking below 24000 may prompt a decline to the following support cluster at around 23000, which is a prominent zone for sentiment contrarians step into the market if market fear remains at an extreme level. My take on this: - The distributing process may last for a while before reaching more extreme panic sentiment, prompting consideration of a contrarian approach based on technical levels. - Therefore, we need to watch the price action to determine the best entry setup for the Long position. Then, for now, short-term pressure is the better take. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CITYINDEX:USTECH100CFDShort
by DatTong
Bitcoin Sinks to May Low Under $96,000. When Buy the Dip?Because sometimes the dip just keeps on dipping. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD can’t seem to catch a break. The flagship crypto slid below $96,000 on Friday, a level last seen in May, and traders aren’t exactly rushing to buy the dip. The decline caps a tough few weeks for the OG coin, now lower by about 24% from its record high of $126,000 . The selloff hasn’t been contained to just Bitcoin. The whole crypto market has been slammed. Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD stumbled into the low $3,100s, while Solana COINBASE:SOLUSD fell to the mid-$140s. The entire digital asset space looks winded, and this time, the usual quick rebounders and sharpshooters are sitting on their hands. What’s going on? In short — traders are nervous, the data floodgates are about to open, and the Federal Reserve isn’t giving anyone the all-clear just yet. 🧨 Buy Dip or Wait for Data? The end of the US government shutdown should’ve been good news — until investors remembered what comes next. All the pent-up economic reports that couldn’t be released during the freeze are about to hit the tape: jobs data, inflation numbers, and other key reads that could shape the Fed’s next move. The bad news: December rate cut isn’t guaranteed. Markets had been leaning heavily on that expectation to justify the monthslong risk-on rally. Now, with the data torrents about to test that narrative, traders are hedging their bets — and Bitcoin’s getting caught in the crossfire. If the upcoming reports show the economy is still running hot, the Fed might delay cuts. And higher-for-longer rates are basically kryptonite for speculative assets. 💀 Liquidations and Leverage: A Familiar Story Bitcoin’s latest slump wasn’t just about macro nerves — it was also a good old-fashioned liquidation cascade. As prices dipped under key technical levels, margin traders got squeezed out in a hurry. According to data from liquidation trackers, over $220 million in crypto positions were wiped out in just one hour. In the past 24 hours? North of $600 million gone. In previous dips, you’d see traders rushing to scoop up discounted coins, confident that the bounce would follow. The hesitation this time speaks volumes: sentiment’s shifting, and traders are more cautious after months of euphoric rallies in both AI stocks and crypto. 🌡️ The Contagion Spreads Crypto weakness isn’t isolated anymore — it’s part of a bigger story. Risk assets everywhere are under pressure. The AI trade is cooling, tech stocks are wobbling , and volatility is creeping back into markets that had gone eerily calm. In short, when traders start treating crypto like a growth stock proxy, Bitcoin stops being a hedge and starts acting like the Nasdaq on leverage. 🪙 So… When to Buy the Dip? That’s the million-satoshi question. Historically, deep Bitcoin drawdowns during otherwise healthy macro backdrops have rewarded patience. But this time, the setup’s trickier. The next few weeks should bring a barrage of data that could redefine everything from rate expectations to risk appetite. What can you do now? Watch the data, respect the trend, and don’t fight momentum. Notice how the long-term upside swing on the daily is still there. But as they say, past performance isn't an indication of future results. The Fed’s next move, coming early December, will likely decide if this dip becomes a real buying opportunity. Off to you : Are you looking to buy the dip or you’re waiting for the dip of the dip? Share your strategy in the comments!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
56
Carrier: The AI Infrastructure Winner Hiding in Plain SighHey TradingView community! I see Carrier as a company that can highly benefit from the AI data center expansion, while at the same time not being exposed to the AI potential downside. Why? Because Carrier is an air conditioning and cooling giant that has a strong commercial and residential business no matter whether we are in an AI bubble or not. Also, it's a 100-year company that is not going belly up anytime soon. THE OPPORTUNITY Carrier Global is not a pure AI stock, but it is a critical AI infrastructure enabler through its leadership in high-efficiency cooling for data centers and AI-powered building energy management. Carrier is quietly becoming a picks-and-shovels play in the AI buildout, without the valuation froth of chip or software names. AI data center cooling demand surging → Carrier’s liquid cooling investments makes it the number one choice. They help AI scaling with cooling → 650M kWh saved, 437K tons CO₂ reduced. Commercial HVAC + Service = Recurring Moat → 15–20% organic growth in data center vertical Viessmann integration on track → Europe heat pump can be huge Balance sheet deleveraged → Net debt/EBITDA ~2.0x post-divestitures THE NUMBERS Current stock price: $55.16 DCF model values CARR at ~$80/share 2.36x Sales, and 42x TTM P/E (P/E is high due to the amortization of their big Viessmann factory in Europe EV/EBITDA ~16.5x Dividend yield 1.5% Among its competitors (Trane, JCI and Vertiv), Carrier has the lowest EV/EBITDA at 16.5x EBITDA margin 16.5% TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The stock is currently sitting at the $55 resistance level, which seems to be a good entry point. RSI shows oversold. Since July this year, the stock has dropped 32%, giving it a good discount. I see a potential upside of 40% to 50% over the next year, and a maximum drawdown of 25% My final thought is that the market is pricing Carrier as a cyclical HVAC company. It’s actually a defensive AI infrastructure play with a 100-year brand, recurring revenue, and a seat at the data center table.
NYSE:CARRLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
Oil Under Pressure!Crude oil futures rose more than 1% toward $60 per barrel on Friday, heading for an end to a two-week losing streak, supported by supply risks linked to geopolitical tensions. The impact of U.S. sanctions also began to appear early, as major Russian companies announced reductions in their oil-trading activities. Analysts warned that a large portion of Russia’s seaborne oil exports may face disruptions due to rerouted shipments and slow unloading, while purchases from some Asian countries have declined. Meanwhile, bearish pressure persisted as the International Energy Agency projected a growing supply glut, with global output expected to exceed demand by around 2.4 million barrels per day this year and 4 million next year. OPEC data also indicated a surplus in the third quarter, alongside rising U.S. production and increasing inventories. On the technical front, crude oil prices continue to trade in a overall downtrend, forming lower lows and maintaining a negative structure, with the next target located at $58.93. The downtrend would shift to an uptrend if the price rises above $61.403 and forms a higher high on the 4-hour timeframe.
CFI:WTI
by CFI
XAUUSD: Focus on trading opportunities at these two levels todayMarket Review: Yesterday, the U.S. government struggled back into operation, and gold reacted with a sharp spike followed by an equally sharp reversal. During the U.S. session, prices once again tested the $2,240–$2,250 resistance zone, but failed to break through and subsequently plunged, giving back the entirety of the day’s gains. In yesterday’s trading strategy, I highlighted the $2,240–$2,250 resistance area, noting that failure to break above would provide a short opportunity. The nearly $100 price drop that followed should have allowed anyone who followed the strategy to secure substantial profits. Market Analysis: On the 1-hour chart, the key short-term resistance for gold is around $2,210—the rebound high from last night and also the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. As long as $2,210 fails to break, gold is likely to maintain a range-bound to bearish bias today, offering opportunities to position on the short side. Key support lies at $2,150, which coincides with a previous swing high and the lowest point of yesterday’s retracement rebound. If prices pull back to this level without breaking below, it provides a potential long entry setup. Trading Strategy: The strategy is straightforward $2,210 and $2,150 are today’s critical levels. As long as these levels hold, each offers an entry opportunity. It’s best to avoid chasing breakouts; instead, focus on selling high and buying low within the defined range. Overall, short setups from higher levels appear more favorable for today’s market conditions.
TVC:GOLDShort
by James_AU