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NASDAQ 100 ShortRetracement function on the daily chart... Price has filled the inefficiency on the daily chart here on NQ and formed a Reversal on all 3 correlated assets alongside Dow Jones 30 and S&P500 Anticipating price to drop down to the lows outlined before the end of next week 24 Oct 25', option puts?? Daily chart projection, nothing more than that, lower timeframes are subject to fluctuations that we may not be able to update quickly enough, so yeah. I use the VANTAGE:NAS100FT by Vantage GLGT
VANTAGE:DJ30FTShort
by fstarcapital
1
GOLD sets new record amid global risk waveSpot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to break out in the Asian trading session on Thursday morning (October 16), hitting a record high of $4,239.07/ounce, as investors increasingly sought the precious metal as a safe haven from increasingly complex fluctuations in the global economy. In the previous session, gold closed at $4,207.85/ounce, up $65.94 (equivalent to 1.59%), and continued to increase by more than $25 today. Since the beginning of the week, gold prices have increased by nearly 5%, continuing a strong upward trend since mid-August. The rise in gold prices comes as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signals it will maintain its easy monetary policy path. Speaking this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is “on track” to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 0.25% later this month, in response to signs of weakening growth and external uncertainty. Lower borrowing costs typically increase the appeal of non-yielding gold compared to bonds and currencies. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s latest comments have added to the market’s tension. Responding to a reporter’s question about trade relations with China, Mr. Trump said: “Yes, we are in a trade war right now.” This statement, quoted by Bloomberg News, has raised concerns about long-term damage to the global economy, a factor that often drives capital flows to safe-haven assets such as gold. In addition, the risk of a US government shutdown and the “downdraft effect” when investors simultaneously sell bonds and foreign currencies to switch to holding gold and safe-haven assets, further strengthening the precious metal’s price increase. Strong central bank gold buying has also played a significant role in the rally. Personally, I believe that much of this year’s rally has been “driven by physical demand”, as many central banks “aggressively add to reserves to hedge against sovereign debt risks and expansionary monetary policies”. So far, gold prices have risen more than 60% in 2025, reflecting a clear shift in global investment thinking, where gold has once again asserted its central role as a source of financial confidence in times of political and monetary uncertainty. Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Spot XAUUUSD continues to maintain a strong uptrend, currently trading around $4,239/ounce, up nearly 0.75% on the day and approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance zone at $4,213 – $4,286, corresponding to the top of the short-term rising channel. Trend Structure • The medium-term uptrend remains solid, with a series of steadily rising candles and the MA50 maintaining a strong upward slope, reinforcing the bullish momentum. • The uptrend channel remains effective, with prices currently hovering at the upper boundary of the channel, indicating that the buying momentum is too strong in the short term. • The RSI remains above 70, indicating a technically overbought state, but there is no clear reversal signal yet; this usually signals a slight correction before the uptrend continues. Key Technical Zones • Resistance: 4.286 (0.786 Fib) and 4.378 (100% extension target). • Support: 4.162 (0.5 Fib), 4.059 (old confluence – dynamic support), further 3.947 (balance). Intraday Scenario • The main trend remains bullish, but the risk of a short-term correction increases as prices approach the Fibonacci resistance zone. • Day traders can wait for a buyback around $4,160 – $4,180, the confluence between the 0.5 Fib and the midline of the rising channel, where bottom-fishing buying is likely to emerge. • The short-term target is $4,280 – $4,300/oz, corresponding to the upper boundary of the rising channel. • Technical stop-loss should be placed below $4,050 (psychological support and short-term MA). Overview Speculative money still dominates, but the market is showing signs of needing a “technical breather” to consolidate the new price base. In the context of the Fed easing signals and escalating geopolitical tensions, the main uptrend of gold is not yet threatened, but short-term trading should prioritize the strategy of buying on corrections instead of chasing high prices. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4298 - 4296⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4302 →Take Profit 1 4290 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4284 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4144 - 4146⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4140 →Take Profit 1 4152 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4158
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD bounces back, hopes of policy reversalOANDA:XAUUSD reversed dramatically in the trading session on October 14, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a clear dovish message, indicating that the Fed is ready to continue its rate-cutting cycle despite political uncertainty and the US government shutdown. As of the time of writing, gold quickly recovered to $4,178 per ounce, up 0.89% on the day. The main driver came from expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 0.25% in October, a signal that Powell reinforced in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting. Powell said the outlook for jobs and inflation “has not changed materially” since the September meeting, when the Fed began easing. But he stressed that risks to the labor market are rising, hiring has slowed, and unemployment could soon rise again after a long period of deep decline. “We are at a point where further deterioration in the labor market could start to show up in the unemployment rate,” Powell said, hinting at the possibility that the Fed may have to act more quickly to protect the expansion. The announcement is seen as a turning point in policy direction, especially after Powell admitted that the Fed is considering ending the process of shrinking its balance sheet, a factor that has tightened global liquidity over the past year. Many organizations such as TD Securities believe that the Fed could announce the end of this program as early as the October meeting, paving the way for a clearly easing monetary environment from November. The reaction in financial markets was immediate: the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 4.03%, the DXY index fell 0.25% to 99.00, showing that the Dollar is under new selling pressure. At the same time, safe-haven flows returned to the gold market, reinforcing the rapid recovery of this precious metal. Markets saw Powell’s message as not only reassuring after a period of intense volatility, but also as opening up the possibility that the Fed is preparing for a prolonged easing cycle. Broadly, the Fed is shifting its focus from containing inflation to protecting growth and jobs, a strategic shift. With global growth slowing, geopolitical risks spreading, and US-China trade tensions rising, Powell appears to prioritize maintaining liquidity and financial stability over further tightening. Gold prices have risen more than 57% year-to-date, supported by safe-haven demand, strong central bank buying, and large inflows into gold ETFs. Institutions such as Bank of America and Société Générale are now raising their gold price forecasts to $5,000/ounce by 2026, in a scenario where the Fed ends its tightening cycle and the dollar enters a period of structural weakness. If the Fed confirms its dovish stance at its October meeting, investors expect this could be a turning point in global monetary policy, with gold continuing to serve as a “confident gauge” of Powell’s management ability and the resilience of the US financial system. Technical outlook analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Trend Overview • Main Trend: Strongly bullish, price remains in an ascending channel, a series of long-bodied candles shows that buyers are in control. • Technical Momentum: RSI in overbought zone (>75), momentum is still there but signals a risk of a short-term correction. Important levels on the chart • Near resistance: $4,213 (Fib 0.618). Next extension zone $4,286 – $4,378. • Near support: $4,100 (psychological level), followed by $4,060 and $4,000 (strong support/low MA). Short-term scenario & warnings • Preferred scenario (trend-follow): maintain medium-term bullish view if price holds above 4,000–4,060. • Correction warning: due to overbought RSI, a pullback of $50–$120 may occur to “digest” the momentum before continuing the trend. Macro news (Powell, employment data, geopolitical news) may trigger strong volatility. Risk Management • Smaller order sizes than usual due to high volatility. • Don't chase prices past strong resistance; prioritize buying on signs of a successful retest. The uptrend is still intact; a reasonable strategy is to buy with the trend on corrections or buy breakout confirmations. However, overbought RSI and macro/geopolitical news risks could cause significant pullbacks, so prioritize risk management and tight SL. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4242 - 4240⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4246 →Take Profit 1 4234 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4228 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4145 - 4147⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4141 →Take Profit 1 4153 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4159
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
Oil Finally Breaks the Range — Downside Momentum EmergingAfter weeks of sideways, messy price action where most traders got chopped up, CL has finally chosen a direction. During that entire range-bound phase, we stayed on the sidelines and focused on cleaner markets instead — waiting patiently for this exact moment of clarity. Now price has broken below the range lows with the 5/10/20 EMAs stacked cleanly beneath the 50 EMA, confirming downside momentum and the start of a new expansion phase. For the first time in weeks, structure is aligned and directional — no more fakeouts, no more noise. This is the kind of clean context where money is made, not lost. The plan now is simple: wait for a lower-high pullback into the EMA stack and look for continuation setups if structure holds. Questions for discussion: – Did you avoid trading this chop or get caught inside it? – Are you seeing similar clean shifts forming in other markets right now? – Do you prefer to sit out until context like this forms, or trade through the noise?
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by SirCharIes
Surpassing the $4,100 mark amid trade tensionsOANDA:XAUUSD rose sharply in the first session of the week, surpassing the 4,100 USD/ounce mark, a new record high, as investors sought refuge in the context of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, along with expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to start a cycle of interest rate cuts. Earlier, in the trading session on Monday, Spot Gold increased by 2.34% to 4,110.30 USD/ounce, reaching an intraday peak of 4,117.27 USD, massive speculative money flows into the precious metal as global political and trade uncertainties continue to dominate. Some investors believe that gold can easily maintain the current upward momentum, thanks to a combination of central bank buying, ETF inflows and expectations of Fed policy easing. US-China tensions spark safe-haven buying Gold prices accelerated after President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on imports from China and plans to control strategic software exports from November 1, a move seen as a response to Beijing's restrictions on exports of key minerals. Although Trump assured on social media that "everything will be fine", the market still saw this as the start of a new round of escalation in the trade war. The risk of additional 100% tariffs is still an unpriced variable and of course all risks are a lucrative bait for gold prices to continue to develop positively. Fed Moves Closer to Taper Cycle Expectations for Fed easing continue to underpin non-yielding gold. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October, and a 100% chance of a cut in December. Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) annual conference on Tuesday, which is expected to provide further clarity on the path of monetary policy during this delicate period. A host of other Fed officials are also due to speak this week, as global financial markets react strongly to signals from Washington. Gold Price Outlook: Long-Term Uptrend Strengthened According to the latest forecasts, Bank of America and Société Générale both see gold prices surpassing $5,000 an ounce by 2026, while Standard Chartered has raised its 2025 target to $4,488. Suki Cooper, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered, said: “The current rally still has room to run. A short-term technical correction could be a positive signal for a more sustainable uptrend.” Finally, with trade tensions yet to ease and global monetary policy easing, gold continues to consolidate its position as a strategic haven asset in the current period of economic and geopolitical volatility. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Main trend: Gold continued its strong uptrend, closing around 4,142 USD/ounce, still within the main uptrend channel. Resistance: 4,162 – 4,213 – 4,286 USD Support: 4,100 – 4,060 – 4,000 USD RSI > 75 shows extremely strong buying momentum, but short-term overbought, a technical correction may appear. Overview: The medium-term uptrend remains intact, the next target is towards $4,300, as long as the price holds above $4,000. RSI warns of short-term fluctuations, prefer buying on corrections rather than chasing prices. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4200 - 4198⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4204 →Take Profit 1 4192 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4186 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4113 - 4115⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4109 →Take Profit 1 4121 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4127
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
How to Trade with Stochastics in TradingViewMaster Stochastics using TradingView’s charting tools in this comprehensive tutorial from Optimus Futures. The Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that helps traders identify potential turning points in the market by comparing the current closing price to the recent high–low range. It’s designed to show when momentum may be shifting from buyers to sellers — or vice versa. What You’ll Learn: - Understanding the Stochastic Oscillator as a momentum tool plotted from 0 to 100 - How the %K line represents the current close relative to the recent high–low range - How the %D line acts as a moving average of %K and serves as a signal line - Key thresholds: readings above 80 suggest overbought conditions, while below 20 suggest oversold conditions - Why overbought and oversold levels are not automatic buy or sell signals — and how strong trends can keep Stochastics extended - Identifying bullish and bearish crossovers between %K and %D - Spotting bullish and bearish divergence between price and momentum - Using Stochastics to confirm trend direction across different timeframes - How to add Stochastics on TradingView via the Indicators menu - Understanding the default settings (14, 3, 3) and how adjusting them affects responsiveness - Practical examples on the E-mini S&P 500 futures chart - Applying Stochastics across multiple timeframes — daily, weekly, or intraday — for confirmation signals This tutorial will benefit futures traders, swing traders, and technical analysts who want to incorporate Stochastics into their trading process. The concepts covered may help you identify momentum shifts, potential reversal zones, and trend confirmations across different markets and timeframes. Learn more about futures trading with TradingView: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools — not forecasting instruments.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Optimus Futures
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 13 - Oct 17]During this week, international OANDA:XAUUSD continuously set new record highs, surging from $3,884/oz to as high as $4,059/oz, before closing the week at $4,011/oz. Although the fundamental factors supporting gold’s uptrend remain solid, many analysts have expressed concerns about the possibility of a gold sell-off, similar to what occurred in 2011, as investment demand for gold has skyrocketed in recent months. According to data from the World Gold Council, global investment demand for gold-backed ETFs surged by 221.7 tons (worth nearly $26 billion) in the third quarter. This strong inflow pushed total ETF gold holdings up by nearly 2%, approaching the all-time high recorded in 2020. Moreover, within just one trading session following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, about $1.5 trillion in U.S. stock market capitalization was wiped out, while the crypto market also lost roughly $280 billion. This raises concerns that investors might start taking profits on their gold positions—which are currently showing strong gains—to cover losses in stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, mounting fiscal pressure, rising public debt, and waning confidence in fiat currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, along with uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and Trump’s recent threat to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports, continue to support gold prices in the near term. For the upcoming week, gold prices are likely to fluctuate between $3,850/oz and $4,150/oz. 📌In terms of technical analysis, on the short-term chart H1, it is necessary to pay attention to 2 resistance levels: the resistance level around 4059, and the support level 3945. Next week, the gold price will continue to maintain its upward momentum when the 4059 level is broken. In case the price trades below the 3945 level, the gold price may be sold off, causing the price to adjust to around 3850. Notable technical levels are listed below. • Nearest resistance: $4,059 – this is the short-term top zone that needs to be overcome to extend the upside momentum. • Next resistance: o Fibonacci level 0.382 at $4,232, o Level 0.5 at $4,320, o And the 0.618 extension zone at $4,408 – potential targets if gold maintains the current momentum. • Short-term support: o $4,000 (strong psychological zone – now turned from resistance to support). o Deeper support at $3,896 – $3,871, coinciding with the confluence of MA20 + previous correction bottom. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4098 - 4096⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4102 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3908 - 3910⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3904
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
Global economic data faces disruptionThe trading week from October 11 to 17 is expected to be highly volatile as the U.S. government shutdown could delay the release of key economic data such as CPI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to assess inflation trends ahead of its upcoming policy meeting. Throughout the week, investors will focus on major events including the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, the NATO Defense Summit, and the G20 press conference. Central banks like the Fed, ECB, and RBA will continue to shape market sentiment through speeches and meeting minutes, while China, OPEC, and the Eurozone will release crucial data on trade, inflation, and energy—potentially triggering short-term volatility across global markets. Three key risks will dominate this week: escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, central bank communications that could shift interest rate expectations, and the potential resurgence of trade wars dampening global risk appetite. In this environment, safe-haven assets such as gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury bonds are likely to attract capital inflows, while equities and commodities may face downward pressure. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Trend Overview • After a short-term correction to around $3,950/oz, gold prices rebounded and closed above $4,000 – confirming the recovery momentum in the main uptrend. • The main trend remains strong, supported by: o The MA20 is clearly sloping up. o RSI remains above 60, not yet giving an overbought signal. o The uptrend channel is still maintained, the daily candle closed near the top – showing overwhelming buying power. Key Technical Zones • Nearest Resistance: $4,059 – this is the short-term top that needs to be overcome to extend the upside. • Next Resistance: o Fibonacci level 0.382 at $4,232, o Level 0.5 at $4,320, o And the 0.618 extension at $4,408 – potential targets if gold maintains the current momentum. • Short-term Support: o $4,000 (strong psychological zone – now turned from resistance to support). o Deeper support at $3,896 – $3,871, coinciding with the confluence of MA20 + previous correction bottom. Summary • Gold is basically in an uptrend (Wave 3) with strong momentum and no RSI divergence signal yet. • As long as the price holds above $3,950, the uptrend remains dominant. • If there is a decisive breakout above $4,059, the next target will be the $4,230 – $4,320 zone in the short term. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4076 - 4074⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4080 →Take Profit 1 4068 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4062 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4000 - 4002⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3996 →Take Profit 1 4008 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4014
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
5
NASDAQ Faces Downside Risk Amid Tariff and Shutdown UncertaintyUSNAS100 – Technical Outlook Aligned with Fundamentals The Nasdaq 100 fell sharply on Friday, losing nearly 1,200 points within six hours as it retreated from its all-time high. The drop came amid renewed U.S.–China tariff tensions and growing uncertainty from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data releases and weighed on sentiment ahead of third-quarter earnings season. Technically, the index is showing clear bearish pressure, and sellers will likely maintain control while the price remains below 23,930. A short-term corrective rebound toward 24,160 – 24,350 is possible before renewed downside momentum. If the price closes a 1H or 4H candle below 23,930, it would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend, opening the way toward 23,700 → 23,500 → 23,350. Conversely, as long as the index trades above 23,930, limited corrections may occur, but overall bias remains weak under current macro headwinds. Pivot Line: 23,930 Support Levels: 23,700 / 23,500 / 23,350 Resistance Levels: 24,160 / 24,340 / 24,480 Summary: Fundamental headwinds — from tariff threats to the shutdown’s data vacuum — are fueling pressure on tech stocks. Technically, bias stays bearish below 23,930, with a potential correction toward 24,350 before continuation to the downside.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 Faces Earnings Test Amid Shutdown Fog and Tariff FearsStocks Face Earnings Test as S&P 500 Heads for Worst Shutdown Performance Since 1990 The S&P 500 slipped on Friday, just two days after hitting a record high, as renewed tariff fears and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown weighed on sentiment. This week marks a key test as major Wall Street banks open the third-quarter earnings season, potentially offering direction amid what analysts call a “vacuum of government data” due to the shutdown. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 logged its 33rd record close of 2025, even as the shutdown that began October 1 dragged on. But Trump’s threat of a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese imports erased gains, leaving the index down 2% since the shutdown began — its worst such stretch since 1990, per Dow Jones Market Data. The delay of key reports like CPI inflation data has added “fog” to the market, making it harder to gauge the impact of tariffs on core prices. Still, analysts expect solid Q3 results, especially from banks, with FactSet’s John Butters noting a rare increase in EPS estimates — the first since late 2021. Volatility Returns — But Will Investors Buy the Dip? October, historically the most volatile month, lived up to its reputation. Friday’s drop left traders debating whether it was triggered by Trump’s post or simply profit-taking after record highs. S&P 500 – Technical Outlook Merging with Fundamentals The price dropped sharply by $165 within just six hours, reflecting strong volatility driven by both technical factors and fundamental uncertainty. From now on, market movements are expected to remain highly sensitive, especially as third-quarter earnings season begins this week — a phase that could significantly influence the indices amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Technically, a short-term correction is expected toward 6550 – 6577 before renewed bearish pressure resumes. However, if the price closes a 4H candle below 6484, it would confirm continuation of the bearish trend toward 6450 and 6425, with further downside potential toward 6347 and 6283. On the other hand, as long as the price trades above 6506, buyers may attempt to correct the move upward toward 6550 – 6577. A sustained break below 6484, however, would clearly reestablish the bearish momentum. Pivot Line: 6506 Support Levels: 6450, 6425, 6348 Resistance Levels: 6550, 6570, 6620 Summary Expectation: Next likely direction — bearish continuation, possibly after a minor corrective pullback toward 6,570 – 6,600, unless buyers reclaim control above 6,620.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Solana - Market structure Shift - The Levels to be aware of !In this video I look at the higher time frame and point out some key reasons of why I'm expecting a deeper pullback as well as local time frame where we can see the clear levels to be taken if your looking to accumulate or open longs . Aside from the Solana coin I look at the Eth/Btc pair and BTC which ultimately determines the fate of the alt coin market . Any questions please feel free to ask in the comments section below
BINANCE:SOLUSD
by SJTRADESFUTURES
Gold Over $4K: Blow-Off Top or Launchpad Higher?Gold (GC1!) has been one of the most beautifully trending markets over the past two years — a textbook example of structure, momentum, and clean technical behaviour. We’ve been following it closely since February 2024, and every markup and re-accumulation phase has respected the 5 / 10 / 20 / 50 MA stack perfectly. Now, price has reached the key $4 000 zone after yet another powerful rally leg. The big question: are we seeing a blow-off top forming, or is this simply another launch pad before the next expansion higher? Personally, I think we might need a flush toward the 50 MA (orange) to reset momentum and shake out late buyers before any real continuation. That said, I won’t even think about shorts unless the Daily closes below the 20 MA — the trend is still firmly bullish until proven otherwise. Let’s be honest though… this is where everyone suddenly becomes a top-caller, trying to outsmart a two-year uptrend 🤦‍♂️. We just keep it simple — follow the chart, trust the EMAs, and stay bullish until the structure actually breaks down. Key points: • Daily trend remains bullish with EMAs cleanly stacked. • A healthy pullback toward the 50 MA could reset momentum. • Short bias only valid after a Daily close below the 20 MA. • Holding above 20 ma keeps continuation structure intact. • Bias remains bullish until proven otherwise. Questions for you: 1. Do you think this is the final blow-off or just another launch pad before 5K? 2. How far do you see this pullback going — 20 EMA bounce or full flush to the 50 EMA? 3. Are you still riding the trend, or are you one of the many trying to call the top too early?
COMEX:GC1!Long
by SirCharIes
GOLD corrects as US announces ceasefire agreementSpot OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply by nearly $30 in early Asian trading on October 9, to around $4,012 an ounce, after news of a historic ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was confirmed. Markets reacted quickly to US President Donald Trump's announcement that the two sides had signed the first phase of a Washington-brokered peace plan. All hostages would be released and Israeli troops would withdraw from Gaza according to an agreed roadmap. Trump described it as "the first step towards a lasting and sustainable peace in the Middle East", and thanked Qatar, Egypt and Turkey for their role in mediating. Bloomberg reported that the deal was signed in Sharm el-Sheikh (Egypt), after several rounds of tense negotiations. According to the agreement, Hamas will release about 20 living hostages and return the remains of more than 20 dead people, while Israel will free nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. The comprehensive ceasefire took effect from 12:00 noon Cairo time, with guarantees from the US, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. In the short term, the sudden improvement in global risk appetite following this news is the main reason for the decline in gold prices. Investors shifted to higher-yielding assets, while the recent hot rally pushed technical indicators into overbought territory, triggering short-term profit-taking. The previous day, gold prices had surpassed the $4,059 mark per ounce, a new record high, thanks to increased safe-haven flows due to geopolitical tensions and loose monetary policy. However, news from the Middle East has temporarily reversed the trend, showing the high sensitivity of gold to geopolitical developments in the current uncertain period. Outlook: Investors will closely monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the reaction of the US bond market in the coming days. If risk sentiment continues to improve and yields increase slightly, gold may temporarily correct before establishing a new accumulation zone around the $4,000/ounce threshold. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD • Trend: Gold remains in the ascending channel formed since August 2025, with a higher peak-to-trough structure. • Short-term resistance: 4,044 /SD (Fib 0.382) and the $4,110–$4,180 zone (Fib 0.5–$0.618). This is an important resistance zone in the short term. • Nearest support: $3,955 (Fib 0.236), followed by the $3,870–$3,900 zone, coinciding with the MA21 line. • RSI: Remains above 70, indicating overbought conditions and the possibility of a technical correction before further increases. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4092 - 4090⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4096 →Take Profit 1 4084 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4078 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3985 - 3987⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3981 →Take Profit 1 3993 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3999
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD surpasses $4,000, political risks and Fed rate cutOANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise in Asian trading on Wednesday morning, hovering around $4,006/ounce, approaching a record high. The gains were fueled by the risk of a US government shutdown, global political uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will ease monetary policy soon. The US government shutdown has entered its second week, delaying many key economic data, including the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. This lack of information increases the level of uncertainty about monetary policy and forces investors to predict the direction of the Fed based on market signals rather than data. According to CME FedWatch, traders are now pricing in an 84% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. The market is also pricing in a high probability of another cut in December. The turmoil in the US government coupled with weak economic signals is reinforcing gold’s safe-haven status, especially in the context of a weak US dollar and volatile stock markets. Alongside monetary policy, geopolitical risks are also playing a key role in sustaining demand for the precious metal. In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu unexpectedly resigned just hours after taking office, raising concerns about the budget crisis and financial stability in the eurozone. Meanwhile, in Japan, Sanae Takaichi’s victory in the ruling party leadership election has raised expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its easing policy for longer, thereby supporting gold prices. In the currency market, the US dollar index (DXY) recovered slightly to around 98.7 points, but the upward trend was limited by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 4.12%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. If the non-farm payroll data after the government reopening shows a slowdown in job growth, investors believe this will further strengthen expectations of a new easing cycle by the Fed, thereby creating more momentum for gold to move towards the $4,100/ounce mark in the short term. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD Trend analysis: • Gold prices have been in a strong uptrend since mid-August, with a series of dense green candles and stable buying pressure. • Currently, the price has surpassed the psychological level of 4,000 USD/ounce, closing the day above this level, showing that buyers are still in control of the market. • The EMA50 (blue) continues to slope up, reflecting that the medium-term trend is still very positive. • RSI remains above 70, signaling a mild overbought condition, but there is no clear bearish divergence signal, meaning that the uptrend still has room to run. Important technical zones: • Nearest resistance: $4,044 (0.382 Fibonacci level). • Extended resistance: $4,113 and $4,182 (0.5 and 0.618 Fib) – potential targets for the next bullish wave. • Short-term support: $3,959 (0.236 Fib) – important support zone for intraday recovery. • Stronger support: $3,896 – $3,871, which coincide with the previous top and the lower edge of the rising channel. Note: • RSI is approaching the overbought zone, so a short-term technical correction may occur before continuing to increase. • If the price closes below $3,950, be cautious of the possibility of a short-term recovery wave. The main trend of gold is still strong, reinforced by technical factors and the macro context. In the short term, the $3,960 area is a potential buying point, with targets towards $4,110 - $4,180. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4038 - 4036⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4042 →Take Profit 1 4030 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4024 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3974 - 3976⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3970 →Take Profit 1 3982 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3988
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD hits new peak with global crisisSpot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to climb in Asia on October 7, approaching the all-time high of $4,000 an ounce, amid global markets rocked by political turmoil in the US and Europe. Gold had earlier gained 1.9% in the first session of the week, reaching $3,976.25 an ounce, despite a stronger US dollar and high US bond yields. In Washington, the budget impasse continues to drag the US government into a second week of shutdown. Both spending bills proposed by Democrats and Republicans failed to pass the Senate. The shutdown is costing the US economy about $15 billion a week, or 0.1 percentage point of GDP, according to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. If it lasts a month, the consequences could be 43,000 jobs lost and as much as $30 billion in lost spending. The lack of economic data due to the shutdown has also made it difficult for the Federal Reserve to assess the situation and make decisions on interest rates. However, the market is still pricing in the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% this month, a factor that is seen as a strong support for gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset. In Europe, things were less calm. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu abruptly resigned just hours before a new cabinet was to be announced, deepening the political deadlock and threatening efforts to rein in the budget deficit in the country with the highest debt in the eurozone. Meanwhile, in Japan, the prospect of Sanae Takaichi becoming the new Prime Minister has also made investors cautious, as monetary policy and public spending may continue to be loosened. Gold prices have increased by nearly 50% this year, supported by the Fed's interest rate cuts, a wave of gold purchases from central banks, and escalating global geopolitical tensions, once again affirming the precious metal's position as the "last refuge" of the international financial market. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD Main Trend • Gold prices are in a strong and sustainable uptrend, as shown by: o The price line is firmly above the medium-term MA line, with a clear positive slope. o The uptrend channel (parallel trendline) has not been broken yet, and prices continue to remain within the upper zone of the channel. o RSI remains above 60, indicating that buying power is still dominant. Important zones • Strong resistance: 4,000 USD/oz, this is a major psychological level, also coincides with the Fibonacci 0.236 zone. • Near support: around 3,895 – 3,870 USD/oz, which is the confluence of the lower edge of the rising channel and the old peak zone. Note If the price breaks decisively above $4,000 with high volume, the target can be extended to the $4,280 – $4,405 zone. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4000 - 3998⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4004 →Take Profit 1 3992 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3986 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3919 - 3921⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3915 →Take Profit 1 3927 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3933
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1