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ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Thur (Jan 15) The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) closed at 6,961.50, down 40.25 points or 0.57% from the previous day's close of 7,001.75. This marks the second consecutive decline, with the technology sector leading the losses. Session Highlights: - Prior Day High (PDH): 6,979.75 - Prior Day Low (PDL): 6,923.25 - Overnight High (ONH): 7,002.50 - Overnight Low (ONL): 6,963.50 - Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): 6,947.00 - Value Area High (Y-VAH): 6,957.50 - Point of Control (Y-POC): 6,940.50 - Value Area Low (Y-VAL): 6,927.50 The session featured a cautious tone, opening at 6,972.25 and briefly testing a low at 6,926.50 through New York afternoon hours. Buyers emerged near a critical cluster of support, allowing for a slight recovery ahead of the close, although the overall day ended on a negative note. The market is seeing a risk-off rotation as technology underperforms, whereas energy stocks reached all-time highs and precious metals rallied, with silver increasing by over 6% to above $92. --- Key News and Catalysts 1. Semiconductor Tariffs (High Impact) President Trump has implemented a 25% tariff on advanced computing chips including NVDA’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X. Certain exemptions are in place for chips used in data centers, startups, and public sector applications. The White House cautioned that additional tariffs could be imposed soon. 2. CPI/PPI Data (Released January 14) December's Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations, but the Core CPI revealed weaker-than-anticipated results. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% in line with forecasts. Analysts believe this data will likely lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its current stance through at least March. 3. Retail Sales (Released January 14) November retail sales data were released post-shutdown, showing a better-than-expected increase of 0.6%, surpassing the predicted growth of 0.5%, thus reinforcing the narrative of consumer strength. 4. Bank Earnings Bank of America reported earnings exceeding projections (98 cents vs 96 cents expected), while Wells Fargo fell short on revenue targets. The market awaits reports from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock, which could further influence the financial sector. 5. Geopolitical Developments - Ongoing discussions regarding Greenland in the White House - A Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may come soon - Arguments concerning Federal Reserve independence are scheduled for January 21 --- Economic Calendar for January 15 8:30 AM ET (6 releases): - Initial Jobless Claims: Expected 215K | Prior 208K - Empire State Manufacturing Index: Expected +1.1 | Prior -3.9 - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Expected -2.9 | Prior -10.2 - Import Prices MoM: Expected 0.0% | Prior +0.1% - Export Prices MoM - Continuing Claims 10:00 AM ET: - Business Inventories: Expected +0.1% - Existing Home Sales Note: Future retail sales release dates remain to be determined by the Census Bureau due to ongoing data verification from the shutdown period. --- Overnight Session Forecast Asia Session (6:30 PM - 2:00 AM ET) Bias: Neutral to Slightly Bearish - Markets in Japan, China, and Hong Kong will react to the chip tariff announcements, while India is closed for local elections. Initial volatility is anticipated with a test of the overnight low at 6,963.50 expected, particularly focusing on Asian semiconductor stocks like TSMC and Samsung. London Session (2:00 AM - 6:00 AM ET) Bias: Neutral, Range-Bound - With several significant UK data releases approaching, including GDP and Industrial Production, market participants should monitor for potential movements in the Euro Stoxx 50, which is at record highs. The anticipated trading range is set between 6,940 and 6,980, pending US data developments. Pre-Market/NY Open (6:00 AM - 9:30 AM ET) - Earnings from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock will influence market sentiment. The upcoming Philly and Empire Fed surveys will offer insights into the manufacturing sector, along with initial jobless claims data expected to provide a gauge on the labor market. --- Key Resistance Zones R1: 6,979.75 | PDH R2: 7,002.50 | ONH + Psychological level at 7K R3: 7,040 - 7,050 | January Swing High R4: 7,094.50 | 1.272 Fibonacci (1H) R5: 7,113.25 | 1.272 Fibonacci (4H) R6: 7,149.75 | 1.272 Fibonacci (Daily) R7: 7,161.75 | 1.618 Fibonacci (4H) Key Support Zones S1: 6,947 - 6,952.50 | VWAP + Asian Session Low S2: 6,927.50 - 6,940.50 | Y-VAL to Y-POC cluster S3: 6,923.25 | PDL / Equilibrium S4: 6,880 - 6,900 | PWL zone S5: 6,800 - 6,788 | PML + Major Weekly Support The 6,923-6,940 range presents a significant confluence of support. --- Trade Setups for Tomorrow Primary Setup: Value Area Bounce (Long) Context: With the bull market intact, the price is positioned within a value area, finding support below. - Entry Zone: 6,927 - 6,940 - Trigger: Bullish displacement from support - Stop Loss: Below 6,918 - Targets: - Target 1: 6,965 - Target 2: 6,979.75 - Target 3: 7,002.50 Risk-Reward Calculation (for an entry at 6,935 and stop at 6,918): - Risk: 17 points - Target 1 Reward: 30 points → 1.76:1 - Target 2 Reward: 44.75 points → 2.63:1 - Target 3 Reward: 67.5 points → 3.97:1 Invalidation: A close below 6,918 with follow-through. Secondary Setup A: ONH Breakout (Long) - Entry Zone: Above 7,002.50 - Trigger: 15-minute close above ONH with volume - Stop Loss: Below 6,985 - Targets: - Target 1: 7,020 - Target 2: 7,040 Note: Target 1 alone presents unfavorable risk-reward; focus on achieving Target 2 with partial at Target 1.

Bitcoin H1 Price Rejected From 96400 Supply With FRVP Resistance BTCUSD H1 Timeframe After the formation of the order block, Bitcoin showed strong bullish momentum, pushing price up toward the 96,400 level. From this area, a clear supply zone has formed, where selling pressure is visible. At the same time, the Fixed Range Volume Profile POC is acting as a key level, functioning as both resistance and support. Due to this confluence, Bitcoin is currently facing rejection from the upside. If this rejection continues and price holds below the supply zone, a move toward lower levels is likely. The first downside target is around 92,000. If this level fails to hold, the next major support comes near 90,000.

Short

by Markovic_VascoView

Updated

ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, PMI, Key Levels, Setups for Wed, Jan 14 Overnight-to-NY Session Forecast: Market Consolidation with Bearish Sentiment In the latest market outlook, a consolidation phase with a bearish tilt is anticipated (60% probability) as prices are expected to remain capped below the resistance levels of 7,000 to 7,014 during the Globex trading hours. This comes amid a risk-off sentiment observed as the market approaches the close. Traders should prepare for a trading range between 6,976 and 7,005 overnight, particularly aware of the potential for false breakouts typical of the thinner trading volumes in the Asian session. Pre-PPI positioning could keep prices compressed around the value area of 6,988 to 6,993 established yesterday. Should the Producer Price Index (PPI) report come in soft either in-line with expectations or below 0.2% a rally towards the 7,014 to 7,024 range might be seen in the New York morning session. Conversely, if the PPI indicates rising prices, a move below 6,976 could target the equilibrium range of 6,954 to 6,960. In a bullish scenario (25% probability), a soft PPI reading would bolster the disinflation narrative, potentially triggering a squeeze that pushes through the 7,000 mark, with upward momentum likely aimed at the 7,024 to 7,040 zone. For this to materialize, a sustained bid above the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of 6,998 and a breach of the overnight high will be crucial. Traders should look for a cumulative volume delta (CVD) divergence as confirmation, where prices make higher lows while the CVD registers higher highs. On the other hand, the bearish scenario (15% probability) could develop with a hot PPI release or heightened geopolitical tensions, such as a response to Iran’s tariffs. A break below 6,976 would pave the way towards the 6,954 to 6,960 range, with further bearish pressure potentially targeting the 6,911 price level if the equilibrium fails to hold. This scenario may gain traction, especially if the Nasdaq leads the downturn, reflecting the broader tech sector's sensitivities to changing rate expectations.

NDQ - Ascending Channel at FVG Decision Zone | Break 25,873? Hey TradingView! NASDAQ 100 is at a critical decision point right now. Let me break down what I'm seeing on the 15-minute chart. The Setup NDQ is trading at 25,741 inside an ascending channel, currently consolidating in the FVG zone around 25,780-25,830. Price keeps pushing up, pulling back into the FVG, then bouncing - classic accumulation pattern. The key level is 25,873.01. Break above that = liftoff. Reject = back down to test lower supports. Why This Level Matters Ascending channel intact - higher highs, higher lows FVG zone acting as decision zone - price consolidating here 25,873.01 is the KEY resistance - break above = bullish continuation CPI came in cooler than expected - supports Fed rate cut narrative S&P 500 and Dow at record highs - NASDAQ lagging slightly Intel and AMD upgraded by KeyBanc - chip sector bullish The News Context Mixed but leaning bullish: Core CPI cooler than expected (0.2% vs 0.3%) - bullish for rate cuts S&P 500 hit record high Monday - broad market strength JPMorgan beat earnings but stock dropped (credit card cap fears) Intel +3.4%, AMD +1.9% on KeyBanc upgrades Alphabet briefly hit $4 trillion market cap - AI momentum Global central banks releasing coordinated support for Fed independence Small caps outperforming (Russell 2000 +6.2% YTD vs S&P +1.9%) Key Levels I'm Watching Resistance: 25,873.01 - KEY BREAKOUT LEVEL (must break for bulls) 25,930 - Upper channel resistance 26,000+ - Bullish target if breakout confirms Support: 25,780-25,830 - FVG zone (current consolidation) 25,642 - Day's low / immediate support 25,500 - Channel midline support 25,400 - Lower channel support My Game Plan Bullish scenario: If NDQ breaks above 25,873.01 with volume, we fly to 25,930 upper channel, then 26,000+. The ascending channel is intact, CPI was bullish, and chip stocks are getting upgraded. Break the resistance = momentum kicks in. Bearish scenario: If we reject at 25,873 and lose the FVG zone, next stop is 25,642 (day's low), then 25,500 channel midline. High impact news (Fed drama, earnings misses) could trigger the breakdown. Range scenario (MOST LIKELY short-term): Price continues to consolidate in the FVG zone, bouncing between 25,780-25,873. Wait for the breakout confirmation before committing. The Bottom Line I'm NEUTRAL with a bullish lean. The ascending channel is intact and CPI was supportive, but we need to break 25,873.01 to confirm the next leg up. Until then, we're just consolidating in the FVG zone. Watch that 25,873 level closely. Break above = bullish. Reject = more consolidation or pullback. What do you think? Breakout or rejection? Let me know in the comments! 👇

by officialjackofalltrades

ES - Ascending Channel Near ATH | FVG Retest in Play Hey TradingView community! 👋 S&P 500 futures are consolidating just below all-time highs. Let me break down what I'm seeing on the 45-minute chart. The Setup ES1! is trading at 7,001 inside an ascending channel, currently retesting the FVG zone around 6,970-6,990. Price keeps pushing up to resistance, pulling back to the FVG, then bouncing again. Classic consolidation near highs before the next move. We're literally 0.19% away from the record high. The question is: breakout or rejection? Why I'm Cautiously Bullish Ascending channel intact - higher highs, higher lows FVG zone holding as support - buyers defending this level Third highest close in HISTORY yesterday Up 19.39% over the past year - strong momentum CPI came in line with expectations - Fed cuts still on table Forward curve pricing 8,000+ by 2031 - long-term bullish The News Context Mixed signals but leaning bullish: S&P 500 hit record high 6,977.27 on Monday - just 0.19% away CPI in line with expectations - supports Fed rate cut narrative JPMorgan beat earnings but stock dropped 4% (credit card cap fears) Trump vs Powell drama continues - "that jerk will be gone soon" Financials dragging (Visa, Mastercard down 4%+) Gold hitting record highs - safe-haven demand elevated Up 22.80% since tariffs announced in April 2025 Key Levels I'm Watching Resistance: 7,036 - Day's high / immediate resistance 7,040 - Major resistance zone 7,050+ - BREAKOUT TERRITORY (new ATH) Support: 6,970-6,990 - FVG zone (current retest) 6,955 - Horizontal support 6,900 - Lower channel support 6,858 - 2026 low (major support) My Game Plan Bullish scenario (PRIMARY): If ES holds the FVG zone (6,970-6,990) and bounces, we push back to 7,036-7,040 resistance. A break above 7,040 with volume = new all-time highs. Target 7,050+, then 7,100. The ascending channel is intact and we're consolidating near highs - this is typically bullish. Bearish scenario: If we lose the FVG zone and break below 6,955, next stop is 6,900 lower channel support. Financial sector weakness (JPM, V, MA) could drag the index lower. Watch for Fed drama escalation. Range scenario: Price continues to oscillate between FVG support (6,970) and resistance (7,040). Trade the range until breakout. The Bottom Line I'm CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. The ascending channel is intact, we're consolidating just below all-time highs, and the FVG zone is holding as support. This is textbook bullish structure - consolidate near highs, then break out. The risk is the financial sector weakness and Fed drama. But as long as we hold the FVG zone, the path of least resistance is higher. Watch for the breakout above 7,040. That's the trigger for new ATH. What do you think? New highs incoming? Let me know in the comments! 👇

Long

by officialjackofalltrades

How to Trade Opening Range on TradingView Master the opening range strategy using TradingView's charting tools in this comprehensive tutorial from Optimus Futures. The opening range captures the high and low established during a defined period at the market open. It represents the first consensus between overnight positioning and new session orders, often setting the tone for the rest of the trading day. What You'll Learn: Understanding the opening range as a key price zone formed during the first minutes of a session How the Opening Range High (ORH) marks the ceiling of early session activity and acts as a breakout trigger How the Opening Range Low (ORL) marks the floor and signals potential bearish momentum when broken Why range width matters — narrow ranges often precede explosive moves, while wide ranges may indicate exhaustion Recognizing failed breakouts when price breaches the range but reverses back inside How to use the range midpoint as a magnet for price and a target for profit-taking Identifying breakout entries when price closes outside the range with conviction Why breakouts should be confirmed with volume and price action, not used in isolation How to add the Opening Range indicator to a TradingView chart via the Indicators menu Understanding session settings and how to customize the time window (15, 30, or 60 minutes) Practical examples on the E-mini S&P 500 futures chart to illustrate opening range signals in real market conditions Applying opening range analysis across different sessions and products for higher-confidence setups This tutorial will benefit futures traders, day traders, and technical analysts who want to incorporate opening range strategies into their trading process. The concepts covered may help you identify early directional bias, breakout opportunities, and potential entry or exit points across different markets and timeframes. Learn more about futures trading with TradingView: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools — not forecasting instruments.

Education

05:45

by Optimus Futures

MYM!/YM1! Day Trade Plan — Week of 01/12/2026 🎯 **MYM!/YM1! Day Trade Plan — Week of 01/12/2026** 🎯 Huge thanks to all my followers! Your support drives this content. Please like & share! 🤓📈💰 **Sample Trade Setup:** - **Entry:** 49,286 - **Stop Loss:** 49,236 - **Take Profit:** 49,447 > 3RR! For every $100 risked, $300 is the reward. How to Trade This Chart (Simple & Repeatable): **🟢 LONG TRADES:** When price approaches ABOVE **orange support level**, enter long with stop below and target the next resistance level above. **🔴 SHORT TRADES:** When price hits BELOW **orange support level**, enter short with stop above and target the next support level below. **The Process:** 1. Wait for price to reach a marked level 2. Enter in the direction indicated by color 3. Set your stop loss tight (50 points) 4. Let it run to the next level for profit (150+ points) 5. Repeat at every level—same rules, consistent execution *These levels are built from comprehensive backtesting and quantitative analysis with proven accuracy. Price often exceeds initial projections—trade with discipline!* NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Let's capitalize on these setups this week! 📉📈🚀

Updated

ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, CPI, Levels for Tue (Jan 13) CPI Day Setup: Key Levels, Scenarios & Trade Ideas FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Increasing Pressure on Federal Reserve Independence The political landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve is growing increasingly turbulent, as recent developments have raised concerns about potential interference in monetary policy. The Department of Justice served Fed Chair Jerome Powell with grand jury subpoenas on Friday, prompting Powell to defend the integrity of the Fed in a video statement, labeling the subpoenas as a "pretext" for a concerted effort to pressure the central bank into lowering interest rates. Senator John Thune has commented on the challenges this investigation poses for any future confirmation of Powell. In a recent address, Fed President John Williams emphasized a cautious outlook, projecting U.S. economic growth to land between 2.5% and 2.75% for 2026. He noted that inflation is anticipated to peak in the first half of the year at rates between 2.75% and 3.0%, with a return to the 2% target expected by 2027. Williams reassured markets, stating that the Fed is “not under strong pressure to change rates,” and he acknowledged that the current market calm reflects an underlying uncertainty regarding these developments. Geopolitical Tensions Rising President Donald Trump has initiated a significant trade move, imposing 25% tariffs on nations conducting business with Iran, effective immediately. In a swift response, Iran’s foreign minister stated that Tehran is prepared for either “war or dialogue,” adding a layer of geopolitical risk that could influence market volatility in overnight trading sessions. Foreign Exchange and Global Market Insights In the global currency markets, the Dollar/Yen pair has reached a one-year high, trading at 158.25. Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan continues to weaken, with the People’s Bank of China’s mid-point rate floating around 6.9734. Additionally, gold prices remain buoyed near record highs, driven by persistent demand for safe-haven assets amidst ongoing political and economic uncertainties. TUESDAY'S KEY EVENT: CPI REPORT SET FOR 8:30 AM ET Consensus Expectations: - Headline CPI MoM is expected at 0.3%, up from the previous 0.2%. - Headline CPI YoY is anticipated to remain steady at 2.7%. - Core CPI MoM is projected at 0.3%, an increase from last month’s reading of 0.2%. - Core CPI YoY is forecasted at 2.7%, slightly up from 2.6% previously reported. Important Context: Recent data collection for October and November has been impacted by the government shutdown, leading to some analysts warning of potential upside risks due to a "payback" effect from previous artificially low readings. Shelter inflation continues to be stable at around 3.0% year-over-year. The Core CPI month-over-month figure is expected to be the most immediate market mover, making it a critical focus for investors. CPI Scenario Matrix: - Much Lower (<0.2% Core MoM): Potential market rally of 30-50 points. - Lower (0.2%): Anticipated rally of 15-25 points. - In-Line (0.3%): Expected to result in market fluctuations of ±10-15 points. - Higher (0.4-0.5%): Predicted market sell-off of 25-40 points. - Much Higher (>0.5%): Market "flush" could lead to a drop of 40-60 points. Technical Structure: - Daily: Current prices are at a "Strong High 90%," indicating an extended phase while still maintaining trend integrity. Multiple higher high structures are currently showing signs of exhaustion, with a key support level at 6,900. - 4-Hour: A change in character has been confirmed from the lows of 6,968, resulting in a sequence of higher lows at 6,950, 6,968, and 6,998. A higher low at 6,988 must hold for bullish continuation. - 1-Hour: Prices are currently in a premium zone above 7,009, with a break of structure confirmed following recovery from the morning lows. Consolidation is forming ahead of the CPI catalyst. Overnight Market Forecast In the Base Case scenario, traders are positioned for a consolidation phase within the range of 7,004 to 7,013, driven by thin liquidity and pre-CPI positioning. As market participants reduce risk ahead of key data releases, expect choppy price action. On the Bullish Case front, there’s a 25% likelihood of probing levels between 7,017 and 7,021, fueled by short covering prior to the CPI announcement. The calming tone from Fed's Williams is supporting risk appetite, but a stall is expected below the 7,025 mark. Conversely, the Bearish Case carries a 20% probability of a dip to the 6,996 to 6,998 range, influenced by headline risks related to the Fed and tensions in Iran. There is pre-CPI hedging pressure that could lead to a bounce at the Y-VAL. Post-CPI Scenarios Scenario A Bullish Acceptance (35% Probability) - Trigger: A 15-minute close above 7,025.25. - Targets: 7,040 and then 7,058-7,065. - Invalidation: Falling back below 7,021. Scenario B Rejection/Fade (40% Probability) - Trigger: A sweep above 7,021-7,025 followed by a failure to hold above 7,021. - Targets: 6,996.50, moving down to 6,968.75. - Invalidation: Acceptance above 7,025. Scenario C - Breakdown (25% Probability) - Trigger: A 15-minute close below 6,996.50. - Targets: 6,968.75 and then 6,950.00. - Invalidation: A reclaim and hold above 6,996.50. BIAS & SUMMARY Overall Lean: Slight bearish into CPI, but data-dependent Bull Case: Cool CPI + Williams' calm tone = squeeze to 7,040+ Bear Case: Hot CPI + Fed/Iran headlines = flush to 6,968 or lower Key Zones to Watch: 7,025 cap - break = bullish continuation 7,005 VWAP - pivot zone 6,996 Y-VAL - break = bearish acceptance 6,968 PDL - critical support Risk Management Note: CPI releases create significant volatility. IV crush post-print is real if trading options, take profits quickly on directional moves rather than holding for extended targets.

ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Mon, (Jan 12)MACRO/FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Primary Driver: Fed Independence Crisis Signals Major Risk-Off Environment The predominant headline today revolves around a significant development concerning Federal Reserve independence. Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the Justice Department issued a subpoena to the central bank, intimating the possibility of a criminal indictment. Powell described this as part of the administration's ongoing pressure to influence rate decisions, emphasizing, "The threat of criminal charges arises when the Federal Reserve prioritizes its best assessments for public service over the President's preferences." Market Implications: Analysts at Evercore ISI anticipate a "sell-America" narrative reminiscent of last April's peak tariff shock, predicting declines for the dollar, bonds, and equities in Monday's trading. Following the news, the markets showed muted initial responses; the U.S. dollar slipped 0.2% against a basket of currencies, while S&P 500 futures decreased by 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8%. Political Risk Calendar: In a noteworthy legal development, the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments regarding Fed Governor Lisa Cook's potential removal on January 21. Additionally, former President Trump is reportedly interviewing BlackRock's Rick Rieder for a Fed chair position this week. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has indicated he will oppose any Trump nominee for the Fed "until this legal matter is fully resolved." Safe Haven Flows: Gold witnessed a notable rise of over 1%, surpassing $4,590 per ounce, reaching record highs as concerns over Federal Reserve independence and geopolitical tensions stoked demand for safe-haven assets. Silver also experienced a significant uptick, climbing 4.4% in spot trading to $83.50 an ounce after briefly reaching $83.96. The Swiss Franc emerged as the strongest performer among G10 currencies. Secondary Drivers: Ongoing unrest in Iran has intensified, with reports of protests resulting in hundreds of fatalities and Trump hinting at military strikes, propelling oil prices to a one-month high (Brent above $63, WTI above $58). The banking and financial sectors experienced weakness amid Trump's intentions to freeze credit card interest rates. Meanwhile, 30-year Treasury yields climbed 4 basis points to 4.86%, driven by inflation concerns. Lastly, December's weak non-farm payroll figures (averaging just 29,000 jobs per month in Q4 compared to 57,000 in Q2-Q3) complicate the Fed's path, although inflation risks remain a significant factor. Market Analysis: SMC Structure Overview (4H/1H) Daily Overview: The market has recently seen a rejection from the premium zone, exceeding 7,000, leading to a sequence of lower highs following a recent higher high at approximately 7,020. A break of structure (BOS) was confirmed at these recent highs, with the market now retracing. 4-Hour Perspective: The higher-low (HL) structure remains intact, with key support located in the 6,950-6,960 range. The pivotal weekly low (PWL) at 6,900 is a crucial level that must be maintained for bullish continuation. The premium zone is clearly delineated above 7,000. 1-Hour Insights: A change of character (CHoCH) is apparent, with an HL being constructed around 6,956. However, the recent sequence of lower highs/lower lows suggests prevailing short-term bearish pressure, with an equilibrium around 6,940. The oscillator matrix indicates a bearish momentum divergence across multiple timeframes, particularly with the RSI remaining compressed within the 50-70 range. Primary Sentiment: Bearish to Neutral The prevailing risk-off sentiment is underscored by the technical structure reflecting distribution from the premium zone. Scenario 1: Fade Rally into Y-POC/Prior Close (High Probability) The overnight gap down sets the stage for the potential to fade any rally toward the 6,995-7,005 area, which encompasses the Y-Point of Control (POC) and the prior close, contingent on confirming order flow rejection. - Entry Zone: 6,995-7,005 - Confirmation: Look for cumulative volume delta (CVD) divergence, iceberg selling on Bookmap, and any failed breakouts at the Y-Volume Area High (VAH). - Targets: 1) 6,968 (overnight low), 2) 6,950-6,955 (prior day low/London low), 3) 6,900 (PWL). - Stop Loss: Above 7,020 (previous day high, PDH). Scenario 2: Long from Discount Zone (Countertrend Play) Should price sweep past the prior day low (PDL) and reach the 6,950 HL zone or delve deeper to the 6,900 PWL, traders should monitor for absorption signals and CVD reversal to consider a countertrend long position. - Entry Zone: 6,945-6,955 (initial attempt) or 6,890-6,910 (PWL area). - Confirmation: Look for robust bid absorption, CVD divergence, and visible iceberg buying. - Targets: 1) 6,970-6,975 (mid-range), 2) 6,995 (Y-POC). - Stop Loss: Below 6,880 for PWL entries. Headline Risk: The market remains sensitive to headlines related to further Federal Reserve/Department of Justice developments, comments from former President Trump regarding Powell, or any rulings from the Supreme Court. Traders are advised to adjust positions in light of potential volatility. CPI Preview: As markets position ahead of the CPI release on Wednesday, a hotter print could instigate a hawkish posture, supportive of the dollar but bearish for equities. Good Luck

GOLD - Ascending Channel Holding Strong | FVG Retest in Play Hey TradingView community! 👋 Gold is looking really interesting right now. Let me break down what I'm seeing on the 45-minute chart. The Setup XAUUSD is trading at 4,477 inside a well-defined ascending channel that's been holding since early January. After that sharp rejection from the 4,550 resistance zone, price pulled back and is now consolidating right above a key FVG (Fair Value Gap) zone around 4,460-4,480. This is exactly the kind of structure I love to see - higher highs, higher lows, and now a healthy retest of the imbalance zone. Why I'm Bullish Ascending channel structure intact - buyers defending the rising trendline FVG zone acting as support - price reacting positively here Safe-haven demand returning amid geopolitical uncertainty Performance is insane: +68.24% over the past year, +3.66% YTD already 52-week high at 4,550 - we're knocking on the door Key Levels I'm Watching Resistance: 4,500 - Psychological level and recent rejection 4,550 - 52-WEEK HIGH / Major resistance Support: 4,460-4,480 - FVG zone (current test) 4,408 - Channel support / horizontal support 4,275 - Lower channel boundary My Game Plan Primary scenario: If gold holds above the 4,460 FVG zone and respects the rising channel support, I expect buyers to push price back toward 4,500-4,550 resistance. A clean break above 4,550 opens the door for 4,600+. Risk scenario: A decisive break below 4,408 would weaken the bullish structure and could trigger a deeper pullback toward 4,300-4,350. The Bottom Line Structure remains constructive. The ascending channel is intact. Safe-haven flows are supporting gold amid all the Trump policy chaos and geopolitical headlines. As long as we hold above 4,408, I'm staying bullish with targets at 4,500 and 4,550. What do you think? Are you bullish or bearish on gold here? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇 If this analysis helped you, please comment what you want me to analyze next!

Long

by officialjackofalltrades

Updated

ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Tue (Jan 6)U.S. stock markets closed on a positive note today, buoyed primarily by gains in the energy sector and large banking institutions. This upside was propelled by headlines related to Venezuela, which invigorated both the energy market and investor risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Index for December showed a contraction, remaining below the 50 threshold, which reinforces the narrative of uneven economic growth and places increased emphasis on upcoming services data scheduled for release later this week. Looking Ahead to Tuesday: The macroeconomic calendar for Tuesday appears relatively light, suggesting that the equity markets may engage in a more directional trading pattern unless unexpected geopolitical developments emerge overnight. The primary risk window looms larger later in the week with significant reports on ADP employment, ISM Services, and the EIA energy outlook, culminating in the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Overnight Outlook into New York: The most probable scenario sees a rotation around the 6948.50 level (VWAP), with a two-sided trading dynamic expected. Key support is identified at the 6942.50/6940.00 range, while the first resistance ceiling is placed between 6955.25 and 6963.50. A bullish scenario would emerge with a stable hold above 6942.50 and a successful move through 6955.25, paving the way toward the 6963.50 resistance level and beyond. Conversely, bearish pressure may materialize if the index falls below 6940.00, with a failure to reclaim 6942.50 potentially exposing levels around 6932.75 and the 6912.75-6906.00 range. Trade Setups for Tomorrow A++ Long Setup (Preferred): Entry: 6932-6935 (PDL / NYAM.L test) Stop: 6927 Target: 6948-6955 B+ Short Setup (Fade Rally) : Entry: 6950-6955 (VWAP / Y-POC rejection) Stop: 6960 Target: 6935-6940 Deep Discount Long (If Major Flush): Entry: 6906-6912 (LO.H / AS.H zone) Stop: 6900 Target: 6940-6950 Good Luck !!!

How to Trade with Volume Profile in TradingView Master Volume Profile using TradingView's powerful charting tools in this step-by-step tutorial from Optimus Futures. Volume Profile is an advanced charting indicator that helps traders identify key support and resistance levels, areas of price acceptance, and potential breakout zones by showing where trading activity is concentrated at different price levels. What You'll Learn: Understanding Volume Profile as a price-based volume tool that displays trading activity horizontally across price levels How the Point of Control (POC) represents the price level with the highest traded volume How the Value Area encompasses approximately 70% of all traded volume, bounded by the Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL) Why High Volume Nodes signal areas of price acceptance and potential support or resistance Why Low Volume Nodes signal areas of price rejection where markets tend to move quickly Recognizing when price trades above or below the previous session's Value Area for directional bias Why these levels aren't automatic buy or sell triggers, and how to confirm them with other tools like traditional support/resistance or trend analysis Identifying the "low volume node breakout," a setup where price accelerates through thin areas Spotting potential mean-reversion trades when price returns to the POC after an extended move How to add Volume Profile tools on TradingView via the drawing tools panel Understanding Fixed Range, Anchored, and Session Volume Profile options and when to use each Practical examples using futures charts Applying Volume Profile across daily, weekly, and intraday timeframes for market structure analysis and trade planning Learn more about futures trading with TradingView: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools — not forecasting instruments.

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by Optimus Futures

ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Fri (Jan 2nd)Market Overview: Context for Friday As the market transitions from year-end positioning, traders should anticipate a choppy session influenced by holiday-thinned activity. Initially, expect fluctuations without a clear directional trend, but anticipate more definitive movements once New York cash volume resumes its normal pace. From a structural standpoint, higher timeframes continue to reflect an uptrend. However, a recent decline from the 6980s has initiated a fresh pullback, leading to a short-term bias focused on “repair mode.” A shift in sentiment could occur if prices can reclaim and hold the mid-6940s. Currently, prices are stabilizing around the 6920 mark following a sharp decline and subsequent bounce. This positioning places the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) in a mean-reversion zone, where oscillations between key value levels are expected as traders navigate the current landscape. Forecasting Potential Market Movements Base Case: Expect a range-bound market with a focus on repairing price levels. Overnight Activity: The market has shown rotation around key levels of 6916 and 6922.50, with buying interest emerging above 6908.50. Opening Analysis: As the New York session begins, we anticipate attempts to breach the 6922.50 to 6935.25 range. Should buyers fail to maintain support above 6922.50 during retests, the market is likely to rotate back towards 6916, followed by support at 6908.50. Bullish Scenario: A strong upward movement could materialize with a decisive breakout above 6922.50. - Trigger Point: A 15-minute close above 6922.50, followed by pullbacks that maintain support above 6921.50. - Target Levels: Initial target at 6935.25, with further upside potential towards 6947.50 to 6951.50. Bearish Scenario: A downward failure could emerge if the market loses the 6908.50 level. - Trigger Point: Persistent failures to sustain above 6916, accompanied by a 15-minute close below 6908.50. - Target Levels: An initial downside target at 6895.25, followed by 6890.25 to 6888.00. If 6888 is breached and held, the next level of interest would be 6873. Events to watch tomorrow (timing is ET) • 09:45 - S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (final) • 16:30 - Fed H.4.1 balance sheet update (released on the next business day when the usual Thursday release falls on a federal holiday) A++ SETUP 1 (LONG) - Rejection Fade Entry: 6888.00-6892.25 (buy only after a flush into the pocket, then reclaim) Stop: 6878.00 • TP1: 6922.50 • TP2: 6935.25 • TP3: 6947.50 • Invalidation: 15m body closes below 6888.00 and does not reclaim quickly A++ SETUP 2 (SHORT) - Rejection Fade Entry: 6947.50-6951.50 (sell only after a push up, then fail back under 6947.50) Stop: 6962.00 • TP1: 6922.50 • TP2: 6916.00 • TP3: 6890.25 • Invalidation: 15m closes and holds above 6951.50 (or a clean push above 6962.00) Good Luck !!!

When Indexes Stop Agreeing, Markets Start Talking Ever notice how markets can look strong… yet feel a little off? That’s usually when indexes stop marching in sync — and right now, that’s exactly what’s happening. Let’s break it down, no jargon overload, no crystal balls. Four Indexes, Four Different Stories Here’s the current lineup in US equity index futures: S&P 500 (ES) → Pushing to fresh all-time highs Dow Jones (YM) → Also holding above prior highs NASDAQ 100 (NQ) → Lagging below its peak Russell 2000 (RTY) → Still stuck under its highs When all four move together, trends tend to behave. When they don’t? Markets usually get… interesting. Why This Disagreement Matters The NASDAQ is packed with technology and AI-related names — the same group that carried much of the upside through 2025. Its failure to confirm new highs raises an eyebrow. Meanwhile: The Dow (YM) is strong, despite being less tech-heavy Small caps (RTY) aren’t joining the party Leadership is narrowing, not expanding That’s not a signal by itself — but it is a clue. Momentum Is Whispering (Not Shouting) Momentum indicators aren’t screaming danger, but they are quietly tapping the mic: NASDAQ shows a bearish divergence Dow also shows a bearish divergence (yes, even while strong) Russell goes a step further with a divergence and a momentum crossover The S&P 500? Still holding up — but increasingly alone. When momentum fades while price stays elevated, markets often shift from trending to fragile. The Levels That Actually Matter Here’s where structure comes in. Two UFO (UnFilled Orders) support zones sit right below price: NASDAQ (NQ): ~25,608 Dow (YM): ~48,127 Above these levels, structure is intact. Below them? That’s when momentum warnings could start turning into price action. Think of these zones as market tripwires — nothing happens until they’re crossed. Condition-Based Thinking (No Guessing Required) Instead of asking “Will the market drop?”, a better question is: What would need to happen for risk to expand? A simple framework: NQ below support + YM below support Weakest and strongest indexes failing together Divergences resolving through price, not time That’s when downside scenarios become more relevant — not before. Quick Note on Contract Specs & Margin All four index futures discussed are available in E-mini and Micro E-mini versions, moving tick-for-tick with the same underlying index. At a glance: Micro contracts = 1/10 the tick value of E-minis Typical tick values: ES / MES: $12.50 vs. $1.25 NQ / MNQ: $5.00 vs. $0.50 YM / MYM: $5.00 vs. $0.50 RTY / M2K: $5.00 vs. $0.50 Margin context (approximate): ES / MES: $22,500 vs. $2,250 NQ / MNQ: $33,500 vs. $3,350 YM / MYM: $14,250 vs. $1,425 RTY / M2K: $9,500 vs. $950 Same market, same analysis — just different risk granularity. This becomes especially useful when markets are hovering near key structural levels. The Big Takeaway Markets don’t usually turn when everyone expects them to. They turn when participation fades, leadership narrows, and structure starts cracking. Right now: Some indexes are strong Others are lagging Momentum is diverging Key levels are close No conclusions. No assumptions. Just evidence — and levels worth paying attention to as 2026 approaches. Want More Depth? If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one: 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.

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ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Wed (Dec 31st)Market Outlook for December 31, 2025 (NY Session) As we approach the end of the year, investors should be aware of key economic data slated for release that could influence the equity markets, particularly the E-mini S&P 500 (ES). Economic Calendar (All Times Eastern) 07:00 – MBA Mortgage Applications While typically seen as a low-impact indicator, this data will be closely watched for any surprises due to its sensitivity to interest rates. 08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims This report has been advanced this week as Thursday is a federal holiday. Given its implications for labor market strength, it could have noteworthy effects on investor sentiment. 10:00 – NY Fed Corporate Bond Market Distress Index This indicator serves as a pulse on credit market conditions. A significant change here could signal broader market stress. 10:30 – EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report The release of this report comes at a time of heightened scrutiny on energy prices and inflationary pressures. It's advisable to keep an eye on potential spillover effects into the broader indices. Market Structure Note Please note that while the US stock market will be open for regular trading hours, the US bond market will have an early close at 2:00 PM ET. This adjusted schedule may influence trading volumes and market dynamics as we wind down the year. Market Analysis: The Path Ahead Amid Holiday-Induced Thin Trading The trading session was marked by subdued yet erratic price movements, a natural consequence of reduced market participation during the holiday season. Despite some fluctuations, traders largely refrained from aggressively pursuing dips, while upward movements faced difficulties in maintaining momentum. In the macroeconomic landscape, the recently released Federal Reserve minutes underscored significant internal divisions regarding prospective interest rate cuts. This lack of consensus diminishes certainty about future rate adjustments, extending uncertainty into early 2026. As we approach year-end, upcoming trading dynamics will be affected. With Wednesday signaling the final trading day of the year, participants should anticipate a landscape characterized by uneven liquidity. This could lead to increased volatility, particularly around key support and resistance levels, with a heightened potential for stop hunts as markets test widely recognized highs and lows. Overnight NY Market Forecast: A Scenario Analysis As we observe the market dynamics, we present a scenario plan that outlines potential movements for the coming hours. Base Case: Currently, the market is oriented towards a bearish sentiment while trading below the 6950-6953 range. We anticipate a two-way trading environment within the 6928-6950 band, characterized by sharper price fluctuations than typically expected as we approach year-end. Bullish Scenario: A definitive reclaim and sustained trading above 6953.50 would open pathways for an upward movement into the 6958-6961 range, and potentially to the psychological level of 6969-6970 thereafter. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, a significant breach below 6928.25 could trigger a cascade towards 6926.25, followed rapidly by 6918.00. Should selling pressure intensify, the 6900 mark may become the next focal point for traders. SETUP 1 (A++) - Long - Reclaim and go (support to value) Entry • Buy 6934.00-6935.00 (only after the reclaim hold is visible) Hard SL • 6925.75 (below 6926.25, with extra buffer) Targets • TP1 6953.50 • TP2 6957.75 • TP3 6961.50 SETUP 2 (A++) - Short - Rejection fade from upper cap (premium to PDL) Entry • Sell 6956.75-6958.00 Hard SL • 6964.00 (above the 6961.50/6960.75 cap with buffer) Targets • TP1 6940.75 • TP2 6930.00 • TP3 6918.00 Good Luck !!!

When Indexes Disagree: Evidence-Based Clues Heading Into 2026 Market Context: Why Futures-Based Index Analysis Matters When equity markets approach historical extremes, surface-level price action often hides important structural information. This is especially true when analyzing cash indices alone. Futures markets, by contrast, provide continuous pricing across all trading sessions, including the Globex (Extended Trading Hours) session, offering a more complete picture of participation, liquidity, and risk transfer. By focusing on US equity index futures rather than cash indices, traders gain visibility into how markets behave outside regular trading hours — often where meaningful positioning occurs. This becomes particularly important when markets are near all-time highs and internal alignment begins to fracture. In this analysis, attention is placed on the four most relevant US equity index futures: E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) E-mini NASDAQ 100 Index Futures (NQ) E-mini Dow Jones Index Futures (YM) E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures (RTY) Together, these markets represent large-cap growth, broad market exposure, industrial and value-oriented components, and small-cap participation. When these indexes move in harmony, trends tend to persist. When they diverge, conditions often become more fragile. All-Time Highs in Focus: Who Is Leading and Who Is Lagging A defining characteristic of the current environment is disagreement among indexes, despite elevated price levels. The E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) has recently pushed to a new all-time high. This reflects ongoing strength in the broader market and confirms that headline risk appetite remains intact. In contrast, the E-mini NASDAQ 100 Index Futures (NQ) has failed to confirm this strength. Despite previous leadership, NQ is currently trading below its all-time high. This matters because the NASDAQ is heavily weighted toward technology and growth-related stocks, including those linked to artificial intelligence (AI) — sectors that provided a significant portion of upside momentum throughout 2025. Meanwhile, the E-mini Dow Jones Index Futures (YM) is trading above its prior all-time high. This is notable because the Dow has a more diversified sector composition and is less concentrated in high-growth technology names. Its relative strength suggests that current market resilience may be coming from areas outside of the technology complex. Finally, the E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures (RTY) remains below its all-time high. Small- and mid-cap stocks often act as a confirmation layer for broader economic participation. When large-cap indexes make new highs while small caps lag, it can signal uneven economic traction and rising internal imbalance. This combination — ES and YM showing strength, while NQ and RTY lag — forms the foundation of the current intermarket tension. Momentum Evidence: What MACD Is Revealing Across Indexes Price alone rarely tells the full story near extremes. Momentum indicators, when used correctly, help evaluate the quality of participation behind price movement. In this case, the MACD indicator reveals important divergences across multiple indexes. The NQ is displaying a bearish momentum divergence, where price remains elevated but momentum fails to confirm. This suggests that upside participation is narrowing rather than expanding. The YM — despite being one of the strongest indexes — is also showing a bearish divergence on MACD. This is particularly important because divergences forming in strong markets often precede broader shifts, not because price must reverse immediately, but because momentum strength is no longer accelerating. The RTY presents the most advanced signal set. It is not only showing a bearish divergence, but also a MACD crossover, which can be interpreted as early-stage downside momentum attempting to assert itself. The ES, while not currently exhibiting the same degree of momentum weakness, stands increasingly isolated. When leadership narrows to one index, risk becomes asymmetric rather than evenly distributed. Structural Risk Zones: Interpreting UFO (UnFilled Orders) Support Momentum divergences alone do not constitute actionable signals. They require structural confirmation. This is where UFO support and resistance levels (UnFilled Orders) become relevant. UFO zones represent areas where liquidity previously failed to transact fully, often acting as structural support or resistance when revisited. In the current structure, two UFO support zones stand out due to their proximity to price and their relevance to both the strongest and weakest markets: NQ: UFO support ending near 25,608.25 YM: UFO support ending near 48,127 These levels are significant because they sit directly beneath current price action. As long as price remains above these zones, structure remains intact despite momentum warnings. However, a violation of such UFO supports would represent a meaningful shift. It would indicate that buyers previously willing to defend these levels are no longer present, allowing momentum divergences to express themselves more fully. Conditional Scenarios: What Would Confirm a Broader Risk Shift Rather than anticipating outcomes, evidence-based analysis focuses on conditions. From a structural standpoint, bearish scenarios would gain credibility if: NQ trades below 25,608.25, violating its nearby UFO support YM trades below 48,127, removing structural support from the strongest index Weakness emerging simultaneously in both the weakest and strongest indexes would suggest that divergence is resolving through price rather than consolidation. In such a case, broader downside expansion could develop, potentially manifesting as a sharp corrective phase. Importantly, this framework does not assume that such a move must occur. It simply defines what conditions would matter if they do. Illustrative Trade Framework (Educational Example Only) For traders studying downside scenarios, a hypothetical bearish framework could be structured as follows: Trigger: Confirmed daily close below relevant UFO support Risk Definition: Invalidation above reclaimed structure Objective: Next lower structural liquidity zone Reward-to-Risk: Favorable only if structure breaks decisively This framework is illustrative and intended solely to demonstrate how structure, momentum, and confirmation can align. It does not imply expectations or outcomes. E-mini vs. Micro E-mini Contracts All four equity index futures discussed — ES, NQ, YM, and RTY — are available in both E-mini and Micro E-mini formats. Both versions track the same underlying index and move tick-for-tick together. The difference lies in how risk is expressed. ES / MES Tick size: 0.25 index points = $12.50 (ES) | $1.25 (MES) NQ / MNQ Tick size: 0.25 index points = $5.00 (NQ) | $0.50 (MNQ) YM / MYM Tick size: 1 index point = $5.00 (YM) | $0.50 (MYM) RTY / M2K Tick size: 0.10 index points = $5.00 (RTY) | $0.50 (M2K) Across all four indexes, Micro E-mini contracts represent one-tenth of the tick value of their E-mini counterparts. Margin requirements vary by broker and market conditions. From a structural perspective: ES / MES required margin = ~$22,500 (ES) | ~$2,250 (MES) NQ / MNQ required margin = ~$33,500 (NQ) | ~$3,350 (MNQ) YM / MYM required margin = ~$14,250 (YM) | ~$1,425 (MYM) RTY / M2K required margin = ~$9,500 (RTY) | ~$950 (M2K) This difference allows traders to express the same market thesis with far greater precision, especially when working around tight structural levels or conditional triggers. With momentum divergences developing and key structural zones nearby, position sizing flexibility becomes critical. Micro E-mini contracts make it possible to: Scale exposure gradually Reduce concentration risk Align risk more closely with invalidation levels The analysis remains identical across E-minis and Micros — only the risk calibration changes. Risk Management Considerations Divergences can persist longer than expected, especially in strong trends. Acting without confirmation often leads to premature positioning. Key principles include: Waiting for structural validation Defining risk before engaging Managing exposure across correlated instruments Avoiding overconfidence near historical extremes Markets rarely turn because of opinion. They turn when structure and participation change. Final Takeaway: Evidence Over Assumptions As 2025 comes to a close, US equity index futures present a market that is strong on the surface but fractured underneath. Leadership is narrowing, momentum is diverging, and structural levels are increasingly relevant. Whether these signals resolve through consolidation or correction remains unknown. What matters is that the evidence is now visible — and futures markets provide the clarity needed to observe it. Data Consideration When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.

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ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zone, Setups for Fri (Dec 26)Market Overview: Context for Tomorrow Trend Analysis: The market maintains a risk-on sentiment as we approach the holiday period, characterized by strong index performance accompanied by light trading volume. This condition often results in a “grind up or chop up” scenario, although we may witness abrupt price movements due to diminished liquidity. E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Positioning: Currently, prices are situated in the upper range of the recent swing high, indicating a premium area. This positioning heightens the probability of a retracement towards mid-range levels before any further upward momentum takes place. Looking Ahead to Tomorrow: Investors should anticipate one of two scenarios: (a) a decisive dip that finds support at the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) or Value Area Low (VAL), followed by a re-acceleration towards the Previous Day High (PDH) or Value Area High (VAH), or (b) a definitive rejection at the PDH/VAH that results in a retracement back to the VWAP/VAL zone. Event Risk - Friday Schedule (ET): Macro Releases: No major U.S. economic data is scheduled for release tomorrow. Notable Item: The NY Fed Staff Nowcast will be published at 11:45 a.m. ET, though it typically produces limited market impact relative to key indicators like CPI or NFP. Implications for the Market: With fewer scheduled economic shocks on the calendar, we can expect a market environment driven more by trading flows than by significant data releases, indicative of a "holiday hangover" effect. New York Session Forecast As we head into the New York trading session, the anticipated price path for the day suggests a cautious approach. The primary range rotation is centered around key levels at 6982.50 (Y-POC) and 6976.75 (VWAP). We expect two-way trading to persist within the confines of 6971.50 to 6988.50 until we see a clearer indication of cash volume dynamics in New York. Bullish Scenario: In a bullish scenario, we would need to maintain support in the range of 6976.75 to 6971.50 on any pullbacks. A sustained rally would then target upward moves, aiming for 6988.00 to 6988.50. A decisive break above 6988.50 could trigger a significant advance towards the 6996 to 7000 range. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if we experience a failed attempt to break into the 6988.00 to 6996 area—indicative of a lack of acceptance—we may see a pullback towards 6976.75. A breach of the critical support at 6971.50 could lead to testing lower levels at 6962.75 and 6957.25. A++ SETUP 1 - LONG (pullback reclaim) Entry: 6976.75-6971.50 Trigger: 15m tags pocket and closes back above 6976.75 -> 5m higher-low -> 1m pullback holds then push SL: 6966.00 • TP1: 6988.50 • TP2: 6996.00-7000.00 • TP3: 7006.00-7012.00 A++ SETUP 2 - SHORT (top rejection) Entry: 6988.00-6996.00 Trigger: 15m pushes into band then closes back below 6988.50 -> 5m lower-high -> 1m pullback fails then drop SL: 6999.00 • TP1: 6971.50 • TP2: 6962.75 • TP3: 6957.25 Good Luck !!!

Forget the Textbook: A 30-Year Reality Check A Big Policy Moment A central bank (BOJ) just pushed interest rates to levels not seen in 30 years. That’s not a routine tweak — that’s a regime shift. Textbooks might suggest a clean, logical market response. Reality? Markets got emotional. Fast. Selling Got Loud Instead of an orderly adjustment, selling pressure exploded. Not just “price going down,” but effort going through the roof. That’s where Volume Delta comes in — the net difference between buying and selling volume. It tells us who is pressing the gas pedal. And in this case, sellers floored it. When an Indicator Starts Yelling Now here’s the interesting part. Bollinger Bands weren’t applied to price… They were applied to Volume Delta itself. Result? Volume Delta plunged far below its lower Bollinger Band. That’s not normal selling. That’s everyone trying to get out at the same time. Does that mean price must reverse? Nope. But it does suggest selling is becoming inefficient. No Safety Net Below Here’s the catch. There are no meaningful UFO supports (UnFilled Orders) below current price. No obvious institutional “safety net.” Instead, only two old technical floors remain: 0.0063330 0.0062415 Think of them as floors, not trampolines. Price may react… or punch straight through. Reaction Beats Guessing This is where patience matters. Extreme selling doesn’t mean “buy now.” It means watch closely. At those levels, traders are looking for: Selling pressure slowing down Price stabilizing Daily closes showing acceptance or rejection No assumptions. Only reactions. Don’t Forget the Ceiling Even if price bounces, there’s a ceiling waiting above. A clear sell-side UFO resistance sits near 0.0065640. That’s leftover supply — the kind that often stops rallies in their tracks. So any upside move? Treat it as corrective until structure says otherwise. Contract Specs This analysis uses both standard and micro futures to illustrate scalable risk. Japanese Yen Futures (6J) have a tick size of 0.0000005 with a $6.25 tick value and currently require roughly ~$2,800 in margin per contract, while Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY) use a 0.000001 tick size with a $1.25 tick value and margin closer to ~$280. Margin requirements vary by market conditions and broker policies, and micro contracts can be especially useful when volatility expands following major macro events. The Big Takeaway Historic policy decisions don’t end stories — they start messy chapters. Extreme Volume Delta shows stress, not certainty. Structure decides what comes next. When markets digest big shocks, the edge doesn’t come from predicting — It comes from staying disciplined while everyone else reacts. Want More Depth? If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one: 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.

Education

ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Wed (Dec 24th)Market Overview: Insights from Today's Trading U.S. equities closed higher once again, reaching fresh highs primarily driven by large-cap technology and AI stocks, although broader market participation appeared mixed. The momentum was fueled by stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP data, which, combined with a dip in consumer confidence, suggests that economic growth may remain robust even as interest rates trend lower in the future. As we approach the holiday season, thinner liquidity in the markets is becoming increasingly relevant, often resulting in subdued trading activity punctuated by abrupt moves in response to key economic releases. Analyzing the structure, the E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) is positioned in the upper range of recent trading and is approaching a notable overhead supply zone, characterized by the recent swing highs. The recent upward movement was significant, demonstrating a rapid recovery from the low 6900s to the mid-to-high 6900s; however, the price is currently stalling beneath a well-defined resistance level. This scenario typically leads to one of two potential developments: 1. A prolonged period of consolidation beneath the resistance, followed by a sharp breakout, often triggered by key economic data released at 8:30 AM. 2. A failure to maintain support at mid-range levels, which could result in a downward rotation toward previous demand zones, commonly aligning with metrics such as VWAP, Y-VAL, or PDL. Market Update: Key Economic Indicators and Early Closures This Wednesday, investors should pay close attention to the following economic releases: - 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims report, adjusted for the holiday schedule. - 8:30 AM ET: Advance Durable Goods Orders and the Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey will also be released. - 11:30 AM ET: Weekly Economic Index will provide additional insights into economic trends. Please note that equity markets will close early at 1:00 PM ET, while bond markets are set for an even earlier close at 2:00 PM ET. In noteworthy news from the energy sector, the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will not follow its regular schedule this week. The next anticipated release is slated for December 29, 2025. Overnight Forecast into the NY Session Base Case Scenario: Expect a period of consolidation overnight, with prices likely fluctuating within the range of 6948 to 6964. The key moment will come during the 8:30 AM ET data announcement, which should provide a clearer directional bias. If the support level at 6948-6938 holds through this data window, we anticipate another attempt to test the resistance levels at 6963.75 and 6968.75. However, a failure to surpass 6968.75 typically leads to a retraction back towards the 6947-6943 region, with a potential dip to 6938. Upside Potential: A decisive push above 6968.75, particularly if it sustains on a pullback rather than merely wicking through, could pave the way for movement toward the 6985-7000 range. Given that tomorrow marks a shortened trading session, these higher targets may be more suitable for “runner” strategies unless we see significantly robust momentum. Downside Risk: Conversely, if the 6938.50 level gives way and fails to rebound swiftly, the market is likely to rotate towards the 6919-6913 zone. This area represents the initial support level where buyers may have a viable opportunity to regain control. A++ Setup 1 - Short rejection from the top Entry: 6962.50-6966.00 (only after a test into 6963.50-6968.75 fails and price closes back below 6963.75) Stop: 6974.25 TP1: 6943.50 TP2: 6938.50 TP3: 6919.25-6918.75 A++ Setup 2 - Long breakout and hold Entry: 6970.50-6972.25 (only after a 15m close above 6968.75, then a pullback that holds above 6963.75) Stop: 6961.75 TP1: 6998.75-7000.00 TP2: 7012.50 TP3: 7036.75-7040.00 If you enjoy our analysis, please consider boosting and sharing our post. Good Luck !!!

Long

Why is gold fluctuating in futures towards the target of 5120?Since 1975, with the increasing decline in the value of the world's most worthless currency, the dollar, all holders of this worthless fiat have been facing losses day by day against a valuable peak in physical assets! Currently, the dollar is proud to be at the peak of worthlessness with rulers with a brilliant record of abusing children and girls at a very young age, even less than 5 years old, for sexual slavery, and every day, the yellow pumpkin head with a flat stomach the color of its own impurity, with a speechless tongue, is showing the consequences of accompanying these impurities and its fellow cups. What makes us think is at what moment in history this swamp will drown all its companions forever. With the hope that this will happen soon!! Good luck

ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setup for Tue (Dec 23rd)MARKET OVERVIEW: Key Highlights of the Day Investor sentiment remained resilient as equity markets advanced ahead of a holiday-shortened trading week, with large-cap technology and AI-related stocks driving the momentum. This robust performance sets a positive tone as we approach year-end. Notably, hard assets, particularly gold and silver, displayed continued strength, indicating that investors are still seeking hedges amid a rising equity environment. Meanwhile, oil prices remain sensitive to geopolitical developments. Interest rates held steady without causing significant disruptions. For the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), the overarching trend remains upward; however, the holiday trading environment can lead to choppy price movements. Currently, the ES is testing the upper boundary of its range, making this nearby resistance level a critical point to watch as we progress into overnight trading and the New York session. Nvidia's stock rose over 1% following a Reuters report indicating that the company plans to start shipping its H200 chips to China by mid-February. Micron Technology experienced a surge of approximately 4%, while Oracle's shares climbed more than 3%. This movement underscores Nvidia’s profound impact, as it now makes up a remarkable 8% of the S&P 500, marking the highest concentration for a single stock in over fifty years. Institutional investment flows continue to be fueled by ongoing developments in AI infrastructure. The Federal Reserve concluded its December meeting with a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, adjusting it to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut, bringing rates to their lowest since November 2022. Notably, the committee exhibited a divide, with three members dissenting against the cut, reflecting the most disagreement since September 2019. The updated "dot plot" suggests only one additional 25 basis point cut in 2026, followed by another in 2027. Equity markets have successfully recovered their December losses, positioning the S&P 500 for what could be its eighth consecutive month of gains, the longest winning streak since 2018. On Monday, nearly 400 stocks within the index posted gains as it approached record highs. Historically, the so-called Santa Claus rally has yielded positive results about 80% of the time, averaging a gain of 1.6% since 1928. TOMORROW - EVENTS TO RESPECT (ET) 08:30 - GDP (Q3 estimate) + Corporate Profits 08:30 - Durable Goods (advance report) 10:00 - Consumer Confidence 10:00 - New Home Sales 16:30 - API crude oil inventory Liquidity note: shortened week continues - moves can be sharp, then stall quickly. NY PATH MAP: Overnight Analysis The market is expected to navigate a range between 6908.50 and 6948.25. Notably, the “gravity pocket” is identified around the 6929.75 to 6925.75 range. Maintaining a position above 6920.50 is crucial for sustaining a bullish outlook. However, a decisive move between 6936.25 and 6948.25 would likely pave the way toward a target of 6983.00. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trajectory, it is imperative for the market to defend the 6920.50 level during the Asian and London trading sessions. A successful reclaim and sustain above 6948.25 in New York would open possibilities for a push towards 6983.00, with 7000.00 serving as an upper stretch target. Bearish Scenario: On the downside, a rejection within the 6936.25 to 6948.25 range, coupled with a drop below 6908.50, would shift the odds in favor of a move towards 6891.00 to 6887.00. Continued selling pressure could then target levels between 6846.00 and 6840.00. A++ SETUPS (Level-KZ 15/5/1 execution, two plays only) A++ SETUP 1 - LONG - Break and hold above R1 (pop-and-go) 15m trigger: full body close above 6948.25 5m confirm: pullback holds 6948.25 and re-closes back above it 1m entry: buy 6946.75 to 6948.25 on the first pullback after the hold is proven Hard SL: 6935.75 TP1: 6983.00 TP2: 7000.00 TP3: 7070.00 A++ SETUP 2 - SHORT - Rejection from R1 (pop-and-fail) 15m trigger: push into 6936.25 to 6948.25, then 15m close back below 6936.25 5m confirm: re-test of 6933.50 to 6936.25 fails and 5m re-closes lower 1m entry: sell 6932.75 to 6934.25 on the first lower-high after the failure is proven Hard SL: 6949.75 TP1: 6889.00 (middle of S1) TP2: 6846.00 TP3: 6820.00 If you enjoy our analysis, please consider boosting and sharing our post. Good Luck !!!

Long

3-Decade Rate Milestone: How Markets Digest Policy Shocks A Central Bank Decision Decades in the Making When a central bank moves interest rates to levels not seen in three decades, markets rarely respond in a linear or orderly fashion. Such decisions are not interpreted as isolated adjustments, but as structural signals that force participants to reassess positioning, risk, and longer-term assumptions. The recent interest rate increase by the Bank of Japan marked exactly that kind of milestone. Beyond the numerical change itself, the decision carried symbolic weight: a clear departure from an era defined by extraordinary accommodation. Yet, rather than triggering a straightforward repricing, the immediate market response leaned heavily toward aggressive selling pressure in the Japanese Yen. This disconnect between policy intent and market reaction highlights an important reality: markets do not simply react to decisions — they digest them. And digestion is often messy. From Policy Shock to Positioning Shock Major policy announcements tend to unfold in two phases. The first phase is informational, where the headline is absorbed. The second phase is positional, where traders and institutions adjust exposure based on how that information interacts with existing risk. In this case, the rate hike represented a known risk event, but its implications were far from binary. Messaging around future policy paths, real-rate dynamics, and external yield differentials all contributed to uncertainty. That uncertainty translated into heavy participation on the sell side, not because the outcome was definitively bearish, but because positioning needed to be reset. This is where flow-based tools become especially valuable. Price alone often obscures what is really happening beneath the surface. Flow Exhaustion as an Analytical Framework Flow exhaustion is not about calling tops or bottoms. It is about identifying moments when participation becomes unusually one-sided, increasing the probability that continuation becomes harder to sustain. One easy way to observe this phenomenon is through Volume Delta, defined as the net difference between buying volume and selling volume over a given period. Volume Delta provides insight into how aggressively one side of the market is pressing its case. Unlike traditional price-based indicators, Volume Delta focuses on effort rather than outcome. Price can move modestly while effort is extreme — and it is often in those situations where future responses become most interesting. Bollinger Bands® on Volume Delta, Not Price In this framework, Bollinger Bands® are applied not to price, but to Volume Delta itself. This distinction is critical. Bollinger Bands® on price measure volatility relative to price behavior. Bollinger Bands® on Volume Delta measure participation extremes relative to historical flow behavior. When Volume Delta trades far beyond its lower band, it signals that selling pressure is not just dominant, but statistically stretched. On the daily chart, Volume Delta recently moved well below its lower Bollinger Band®. This represents an exaggerated imbalance, suggesting that sellers were acting with urgency and intensity rarely sustained over extended periods. Importantly, this does not imply that price must reverse. It simply indicates that the marginal impact of additional sellers may be diminishing. What Extreme Selling Really Means Extreme selling does not mean that buyers suddenly appear in force. It means that the market has already absorbed a significant amount of sell-side participation. In practical terms, when Volume Delta reaches such depressed levels, one of two things tends to occur: Selling slows, leading to consolidation or corrective movement. Price seeks lower levels where new participants are willing to engage. Which outcome unfolds depends heavily on structure — specifically, what lies beneath price. The Support Landscape Below Price A critical observation in the current structure is the absence of UFO support levels (UnFilled Orders) beneath current price levels. UFO supports represent areas where prior institutional participation was not fully satisfied, often acting as structural reference points. Without meaningful UFOs below, the market cannot rely on obvious liquidity-backed demand. Instead, attention shifts to historical technical supports derived from prior pivot lows. Two such levels stand out: 0.0063330 0.0062415 These levels represent areas where price previously found acceptance. Reaction Zones, Not Assumptions At this stage, the distinction between anticipation and reaction becomes essential. Extreme Volume Delta does not justify preemptive positioning. Instead, it highlights zones where observation becomes critical. At each technical support, traders may evaluate: Whether selling pressure visibly decelerates Whether price stabilizes despite continued effort Whether daily closes show acceptance or rejection The first support may hold. It may also fail. The absence of structural UFO support means the market retains flexibility, and traders must adapt accordingly. Overhead Structure: Supply Still Matters While attention often gravitates toward potential downside exhaustion, it is equally important to recognize what exists above price. A relevant sell-side UFO resistance is located near 0.0065640. This zone represents UnFilled Sell orders and remains structurally intact. Should price respond positively from lower levels, this area becomes a natural reference point where supply could reassert itself. In downtrending environments, rebounds frequently encounter resistance before any broader shift occurs. This reinforces the importance of framing any upside move as corrective unless proven otherwise by structure. Hypothetical Trade Framework (Illustrative Case Study) To translate these observations into a practical framework, consider a purely illustrative example. A hypothetical long-side case study could involve: Monitoring price behavior at either technical support level Waiting for evidence of stabilization or responsive buying Using the support zone as a contextual risk reference Defining invalidation below the chosen support Referencing the overhead UFO resistance as a potential objective (target) The reward-to-risk profile in such a framework depends entirely on execution and confirmation. This example is presented solely to demonstrate how flow exhaustion and structure may be combined. Contract Specifications This analysis references both standard and micro futures contracts to illustrate scalability and risk calibration. Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Tick size: 0.0000005 Tick value: $6.25 Currently ~$2,800 per contract Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY): Tick size: 0.000001 Tick value: $1.25 Currently ~$280 per contract Margin requirements vary by market conditions and broker policies. Micro contracts can be particularly useful in environments where volatility expands following macro events. Risk Management Considerations Policy-driven markets tend to remain unstable longer than expected. Even when selling pressure appears exhausted, uncertainty persists. Key risk management principles include: Defining risk before engagement Adjusting size to reflect volatility Avoiding emotional responses to extreme indicators Accepting that not all exhaustion leads to reversals Structure, not conviction, should guide decision-making. How Markets Digest Policy Shocks Major policy milestones do not resolve narratives — they reshape them. Flow extremes reveal stress points in positioning, not certainty in direction. In the aftermath of a 3-decade rate milestone, the market enters a digestion phase. Volume Delta extremes suggest that selling pressure has been intense, but structure determines how that pressure resolves. Patience, observation, and disciplined reaction remain the most reliable tools when markets recalibrate after historic decisions. Data Consideration When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.

Education

ES (SPX, SPY) Week-ahead Analysis (Dec 22-26)This week is notably shortened due to the holiday, resulting in thinner liquidity and heightened volatility. Market participants should prepare for an early close on Wednesday, December 24, with the markets remaining shut on Thursday, December 25. Normal trading hours will resume on Friday, December 26. Investors should approach breakouts with caution, demanding clearer confirmations at critical levels and exercising stricter time stops. Multi-Timeframe Analysis (ES) Weekly Overview: The broader trend remains upward, suggesting that the larger swing is constructive; however, prices are testing a weekly supply cap near recent highs, entering a premium zone. Momentum has tempered from previous peaks, raising the risk of a "grind and fade" scenario rather than a straightforward continuation. The market is currently experiencing a rebound leg, yet it is now hitting a daily supply band overhead, where previous selling pressure originated. Upside potential is limited by the upper band near prior highs, while downside risk is anchored by the last swing base and value areas below. The most recent movement displays an impulsive rally from a base, followed by a controlled pause - though it does not indicate a full reversal at this stage. As long as pullbacks remain above the recently established reclaim shelf (mid to high 6800s), current price action is indicative of "healthy digestion." A breach below this shelf could signal a deeper correction. 1-Hour Context (Intraday): Prices are currently positioned in the upper range of the recent trading day, approaching key overhead levels. This presents a pivotal moment for either a breakout continuation or a potential failure. Momentum/Oscillator Analysis (Weekly + Daily): - Weekly Perspective: Momentum is currently in a neutral zone—not excessively overbought, yet not undervalued either - as it has eased from earlier peak levels. - Daily Perspective: Momentum has improved off the lows and is showing upward curvature, indicating that dips are being supported; however, the presence of overhead supply may lead to rapid stalls in momentum. The key trend delineation, or "line in the sand," for market observers currently stands at 6760. For trading positions resting above this benchmark, any pullbacks can still be classified as "corrections within an overarching uptrend." This suggests that the bullish sentiment remains intact as long as the market holds above this critical threshold. Conversely, a decisive move below 6760 - particularly if there’s acceptance level would signal potential damage to the rebound narrative, indicating that the market is showcasing areas of diminished demand. NQ Intraday Reference Map: For the Nasdaq (NQ), immediate resistance is noted between 25600 and 25645, aligning with prior highs and current push zones, followed by further resistance at 25800 to 26000, which serves as the next magnet zone for traders. On the support side, key levels to watch include 25592 to 25568, which represents a value shelf, descending to the levels of 25504, and further extending to 25393 to 25357, marking the prior day’s low pocket. Should the market breach these levels, the overnight low at 25210 will be significant in assessing downward momentum. Volatility Metrics Overview VIX Analysis The VIX has been trading in the mid-teens recently, with a notable decline observed late last week, indicating a growing risk appetite among investors, albeit with a continued sensitivity to market headlines. FRED's latest reported close was at 16.87 on December 18. However, a subsequent market data feed indicated a significant drop on December 19, with a low/close around 14.91. The takeaway here is that a lower VIX tends to support dip-buying strategies; however, sudden spikes in the VIX during a holiday week often result in sharp mean-reversions. Rates Volatility - MOVE Index The MOVE index is currently sitting at approximately 59, indicating a low-to-moderate level of stress in the rates market. This suggests that there is no acute funding stress present, which typically supports equities by mitigating the risk of disorderly sell-offs. Tail Risk Pricing - SKEW Index The SKEW index remains elevated in the mid-150s range. This suggests that while the market is not experiencing daily panic, investors are willing to pay a premium for crash insurance, indicating a cautious approach to tail risks. Options and Positioning The put/call ratios indicate a measured market sentiment, with the total put/call ratio currently at approximately 0.88 (based on a 10-day moving average), suggesting a balanced approach rather than extreme fear. On a daily basis, the total put/call ratio hovers around 0.86, while the equity put/call ratio is more subdued at about 0.59. From a qualitative perspective, the VIX trading in the mid-teens, coupled with stable put/call ratios, suggests that dealers are likely positioned closer to long gamma in this range, indicating potential for pinning and mean-reversion behavior unless an external macro catalyst disrupts the current balance. This observation, while not rooted in explicit positioning reports, draws from the context provided by volatility and options data. Market Breadth and Internals The NYSE breadth snapshot reveals a positive market internal dynamic, with 1,424 advancing issues versus 1,338 declining, yielding a net advance of 86. The McClellan Oscillator stands at approximately +12.8, indicating that market breadth is not experiencing significant deterioration. Current data suggests we are witnessing a “minor wobble/digestion” phase rather than a full-blown distribution cascade. Credit and Funding Environment In the realm of credit markets, US high yield option-adjusted spreads (OAS) are around 2.95%, indicating a tight and orderly credit environment. The NAV of HYG is approximately 80.24, while JNK trades close to 96.82. These observations suggest that the credit markets are not currently signaling a risk-off narrative. However, any rapid widening of spreads may be interpreted as an indicator of shifting sentiment toward a more cautious stance. Sentiment and Crowd Positioning The latest reading from the AAII survey reflects a balanced sentiment landscape, with about 44% bullish, 23% neutral, and 33% bearish positions. This lack of overwhelming fear suggests reduced potential for a sustained market squeeze driven solely by under-positioning, unless the price action returns decisively above previous highs. Cross-Asset and Global Risk Tone In the cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin is trading around $88,600, while Ethereum is near $3,000. This firmness in crypto typically aligns with a risk-on sentiment but may also serve as a precursor to heightened volatility should macro developments arise. Lastly, recent trading has showcased strength in the Nasdaq and tech sectors. Should the Nasdaq (NQ) begin to underperform relative to the S&P 500 (ES) at these elevated levels, it may serve as an early warning signal for a potential fade in risk appetite. MACRO AND DATA-CALENDAR (EVENT RISK) Key US Economic Releases This Week (ET) Monday, December 22 No significant economic data scheduled for release. Tuesday, December 23 - 8:30 AM: Q3 GDP (delayed due to government shutdown) - 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders (also delayed) - 10:00 AM: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Wednesday, December 24** *(Early market close at 1:00 PM ET) - 8:30 AM: Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, December 25 Markets will be closed in observance of Christmas. Friday, December 26 Markets will reopen with normal hours; however, no notable economic data is scheduled for release. Event Impact Analysis: - GDP and Durable Goods: Historically, these releases can lead to rapid volatility spikes, potentially mean-reverting if prices remain confined within established ranges. A breakout, however, could serve as fuel for further trends, particularly if it breaks through resistance levels R2/R3 or support levels S3/S4. Good Luck !!! - **Consumer Confidence:** This indicator typically influences equity markets based on growth expectations. A key point of analysis will be the NASDAQ index's reaction, which can provide a clearer picture of risk-on sentiment. - **Jobless Claims on Early-Close Day:** Expect an increase in volatility, as lower liquidity may lead to exaggerated initial moves, potentially setting traps for traders. As always, we advise close monitoring of these releases for potential market implications and trends.

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Select market data provided by ICE Data Services. Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2026 FactSet Research Systems Inc.Copyright © 2026, American Bankers Association. CUSIP Database provided by FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. SEC fillings and other documents provided by Quartr.© 2026 TradingView, Inc.

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