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FTSE 100 Outlook: Is the Index on Track to Reach £10,000 by the According to my technical analysis, the FTSE 100 has been moving within a well-defined bullish channel since April 2025. The price structure continues to show higher highs and higher lows, confirming sustained buying pressure and a strong uptrend. As long as the index remains within this rising channel, the bullish momentum is likely to persist toward the £10,000 level. Based on the current trajectory, this target could be reached in the coming months or by the end of 2025.
ICEEUR:Z1!Long
by Abdessamadibrouri
Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold Near Potential Wave 5 Reversal PointGold Price Action Analysis - Potential Wave 5 Setup (sub waves within Wave A going down) Wave Structure Overview The current structure on the 15-minute chart appears to be unfolding in a classic 5-wave impulsive sequence: Wave (1) — Initial sell-off following local top formation. Wave (2) — Sharp retracement, testing previous supply, rejected at previous premarket range high (Friday US Stocks premarket high) Wave (3) — Strong impulsive move down with expanding volume, typical of a wave 3 extension. It respected one of our previous opening range high (lower yellow level). Wave (4) — Counter-trend rally into a prior supply block / zone, showing hesitation and rejection. (we are likely done, since it had retraced to 0.5 Fib of Wave 3), i am not ruling out where we may have one more small wave up before we get into the real wave (5). Wave (5) — Still developing, assuming wave (4) is done, we are likely to push into the lower yellow demand zone, where either continuation or a significant rebound may occur. One scenario that can happen is that we double bottom where wave 5 meet end of wave 3, and we start a corrective wave up which is a potential Wave B going up. 🟧 Key Levels to Watch Upper Zone (around 4271–4290) This zone aligns with the ORH level and prior Wave (4) rejection area. ➝ If broken with strong momentum, it can invalidate the immediate bearish Wave 5 scenario and hint at a deeper retracement or new bullish structure. Lower Zone (around 4198–4181) This is a strong demand zone, confluence with Wave (3) extension targets and potential end of Wave (5). ➝ Price reaction here is crucial: either we see a clean 5-wave completion and rebound, or further downside acceleration. 📊 Momentum Confirmation (MACD) The MACD shows a decelerating bearish momentum going into Wave (5), which fits the classic pattern where Wave 3 has the strongest momentum and Wave 5 often shows divergence or a weaker push. If MACD prints a higher low while price makes a lower low, that would confirm bullish divergence, a common reversal signal after an impulse. 📝 Trading Implications Scenario A — Bounce at Demand Zone: Look for reversal signals or bullish divergence near 4180–4198 to confirm the end of Wave (5). Potential short-covering rally could take us close to 4300 Scenario B — Breakdown Below Demand Zone: A clean break and close below 4180 may open the door to extended bearish continuation — likely a larger degree correction or Wave C structure. Invalidation: A move and acceptance above the upper ORH zone would invalidate this short-term bearish count. Final Thoughts This setup is technically clean: Clear Elliott structure Key liquidity zones mapped Momentum oscillator in sync with price action ⚠️ But remember, Wave 5s can truncate or extend, so flexibility is key. Watch how price behaves at the lower yellow zone — that’s where the next big move could be born.
TVC:GOLD
by polarity
Wait for price to SHOW ME WHERE TO MAKE MONEY!Hey Squad, Im going to keep this short and sweet but I want you to PEEP......lol the possible setups that are coming. This week we can not tell exactly what to look for since the market is giving us opposing call outs. For example, The Weekly looks like a double top has formed showing bears/selling favor but the 4/8h shows respecting of a low and shows the forming of a double bottom! so what does this mean? We are waiting for price to show us who to follow!! But if you were to ask me....I believe the USD will suffer this week due to shutdown and uncertainty so I believe we will be trending low! Good for gold and silver traders and those that see weakness in the $! If we can break below the 1.163 area and hold I think its clear we are moving down until we hit a high time frame FVG. Tell me your thoughts and comments on this Analysis! and like always! Gd look out there and TAKE PROFIT!
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by TaYbTrading
Difference Between Forward and Futures Forex Markets1. Definition and Basic Concept Forward Market: A forward forex contract is a private agreement between two parties to buy or sell a specific amount of a currency at a predetermined rate on a future date. It is a customizable contract where the terms—such as amount, delivery date, and exchange rate—are negotiated directly between the buyer and the seller. Futures Market: A futures forex contract, on the other hand, is a standardized agreement traded on an organized exchange (such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange - CME) to buy or sell a currency at a set price on a specific future date. Futures contracts are governed by exchange rules and are not negotiable between individuals. Example: If an Indian importer knows they must pay $1 million in three months, they can lock in today’s rate with a forward contract negotiated with their bank. Alternatively, they could use a futures contract on the exchange to hedge the same exposure, but under standardized terms. 2. Trading Venue and Regulation Forward Market: The forward forex market is Over-the-Counter (OTC), meaning trades occur directly between parties—usually through banks, brokers, or large financial institutions. It is unregulated compared to futures markets, giving flexibility but also introducing counterparty risk. Futures Market: Futures contracts are traded on regulated exchanges, ensuring transparency, standardized contract sizes, and proper oversight by authorities such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the U.S. This makes the futures market more secure and trustworthy for investors. Key Difference: OTC forward markets offer privacy and customization, whereas futures markets emphasize standardization, regulation, and transparency. 3. Contract Customization Forward Market: Forward contracts are fully customizable. Parties can decide the exact amount, currency pair, settlement date, and method of delivery. This flexibility suits businesses and institutions with specific hedging needs. Futures Market: Futures contracts are standardized in terms of contract size, maturity dates (e.g., March, June, September, December), and settlement procedures. Traders must accept these fixed terms, which can limit flexibility but make trading easier for speculative purposes. Example: A company wanting to hedge €2.5 million in three months can easily set that amount in a forward contract. In contrast, a futures contract might have a fixed lot size (say, €125,000 per contract), so the company would need to trade multiple contracts to approximate the desired amount. 4. Settlement and Delivery Forward Market: Settlement occurs on the agreed future date, and most forward contracts end in actual delivery of the currencies. However, some may be settled in cash based on the difference between the agreed rate and the spot rate at maturity. Futures Market: Most futures contracts are cash-settled before expiry, as traders often close their positions before the delivery date. Only a small percentage result in physical delivery of the currencies. Key Point: Forwards typically end with physical delivery, while futures are mainly used for speculation and hedging without actual currency exchange. 5. Counterparty Risk Forward Market: Since forwards are private agreements, there is a high counterparty risk—the possibility that one party may default on the contract. There is no intermediary guaranteeing the trade. Futures Market: Futures contracts eliminate counterparty risk because the exchange clearing house acts as the intermediary, guaranteeing that both sides meet their obligations. Traders must maintain margin accounts to manage default risk. Result: Futures offer greater security due to exchange-backed settlement mechanisms. 6. Mark-to-Market and Margin Requirements Forward Market: Forward contracts are not marked to market, meaning profits or losses are realized only at the contract’s maturity. No margin or daily settlement is required. Futures Market: Futures contracts are marked to market daily, meaning gains and losses are settled every trading day. Traders must maintain margin accounts (initial and maintenance margins) to cover potential losses, ensuring market integrity. Example: If the exchange rate moves unfavorably in a futures position, the trader must deposit additional funds to maintain their margin. In forwards, the loss or gain is realized only at the end. 7. Liquidity and Market Participants Forward Market: Liquidity in forwards depends on the specific currency pair and the parties involved. It’s dominated by banks, multinational corporations, and institutional investors seeking to hedge specific exposures. Futures Market: The futures market is highly liquid due to standardized contracts and participation from a wide range of players—hedgers, speculators, and institutional traders. Continuous trading ensures tight spreads and efficient pricing. In summary: Forwards serve mainly for hedging; futures attract both hedgers and speculators due to liquidity and transparency. 8. Purpose and Usage Forward Market: Primarily used for hedging long-term exposures. Forwards protect against adverse currency movements for future transactions like exports, imports, or loans in foreign currencies. Futures Market: Used for both hedging and speculation. Hedge funds and traders use futures to profit from short-term price movements in currency pairs or to manage portfolio risk efficiently. Example: A corporate treasurer uses forwards to hedge a future payment, while a speculator might use futures to bet on the dollar strengthening against the euro. 9. Pricing and Cost Structure Forward Market: Forward prices are determined by the interest rate differential between the two currencies and the current spot rate. There are no exchange fees, but the pricing may include a bank’s spread or commission. Futures Market: Futures prices are also influenced by interest rate differentials but may deviate slightly from forward rates due to daily margin settlements and market expectations. Traders also pay exchange and brokerage fees. Key Insight: Forward pricing is customized and negotiated privately, while futures pricing is transparent and visible on exchanges. 10. Transparency and Accessibility Forward Market: Forward markets are less transparent, as prices and deals are not publicly available. Only large players like banks and corporations typically participate due to the high transaction size. Futures Market: Futures markets are highly transparent. Prices, trading volumes, and open interest data are publicly available in real time, enabling fair competition and analysis for all traders. Final Comparison: Transparency in futures ensures fairness and easier access for retail and institutional investors, while forwards remain largely institutional and relationship-based. Conclusion While both forward and futures forex markets allow participants to hedge or speculate on future currency movements, their structure, purpose, and participants differ greatly. Forwards offer customization and flexibility but come with higher counterparty risk and limited liquidity. Futures provide standardization, security, and transparency, making them ideal for speculative trading and risk management in a regulated environment. In summary: Aspect Forward Market Futures Market Trading Venue OTC (Private) Exchange-Traded Customization Fully customizable Standardized Regulation Unregulated Regulated Settlement On maturity Daily (mark-to-market) Counterparty Risk High Minimal Participants Corporates, Banks Traders, Investors Transparency Low High Liquidity Moderate High Margin Requirement None Required Usage Long-term hedging Hedging & speculation
NASDAQ:MSTREducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Condor in the Clouds: When the S&P 500 Takes a Nap1 – The Setup Nobody Expected The S&P 500 just pulled a classic “I’m tired” move. After that big drop, it stopped running and started hovering between 6,437 and 6,873 — a cozy sideways zone filled with Fibonacci levels, Floor Trader Pivots, and UFOs (yep, UnFilled Orders, not flying saucers). Markets do that sometimes — they sprint, then nap. And when they nap, option sellers quietly collect theta while everyone else wonders when the action will come back. 2 – The Play: Short Iron Condor When the market’s stuck in the middle, the Short Iron Condor is like putting walls on both sides of the price. Here’s the idea — you get paid if ES stays in between. How it’s built: Sell a Call above resistance Buy a Call a little higher (that’s your safety net) Sell a Put below support Buy a Put a little lower (another safety net) Boom — now you’ve boxed the market. If it behaves, you earn. If it doesn’t, your risk is capped. 3 – Why It Works Right Now The Condor thrives when volatility chills out. That’s exactly what ES is doing — taking a breath after chaos. Theta decay: your invisible ally, eating away at option value day by day. Range stability: resistance ≈ 6,873, support ≈ 6,437. Low Vega: volatility tantrums matter less. You don’t need fireworks — you need patience. This trade doesn’t scream, it hums. 4 – The Fine Print (a.k.a. Risk Management) Keep it real: Size positions by max risk, not by excitement level. Don’t wait for expiration — grab 50–60% profit and fly away. When the market is calm, the Condor glides. When storms build, fold your wings. 5 – For the Data Nerds If you love precision: ES tick = $12.50 MES tick = $1.25 Margins ≈ $21k and $2.1k respectively (subject to volatility). And yes — theta doesn’t care which one you trade; it just wants time to pass. 6 – The Takeaway Markets don’t always trend. Sometimes they just drift — and that’s okay. In those moments, the Short Iron Condor turns boredom into strategy. So, if the S&P 500 keeps “floating in the clouds,” don’t chase it — collect from it. Want More Depth? If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one: 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traddictiv
How to Trade with Stochastics in TradingViewMaster Stochastics using TradingView’s charting tools in this comprehensive tutorial from Optimus Futures. The Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that helps traders identify potential turning points in the market by comparing the current closing price to the recent high–low range. It’s designed to show when momentum may be shifting from buyers to sellers — or vice versa. What You’ll Learn: - Understanding the Stochastic Oscillator as a momentum tool plotted from 0 to 100 - How the %K line represents the current close relative to the recent high–low range - How the %D line acts as a moving average of %K and serves as a signal line - Key thresholds: readings above 80 suggest overbought conditions, while below 20 suggest oversold conditions - Why overbought and oversold levels are not automatic buy or sell signals — and how strong trends can keep Stochastics extended - Identifying bullish and bearish crossovers between %K and %D - Spotting bullish and bearish divergence between price and momentum - Using Stochastics to confirm trend direction across different timeframes - How to add Stochastics on TradingView via the Indicators menu - Understanding the default settings (14, 3, 3) and how adjusting them affects responsiveness - Practical examples on the E-mini S&P 500 futures chart - Applying Stochastics across multiple timeframes — daily, weekly, or intraday — for confirmation signals This tutorial will benefit futures traders, swing traders, and technical analysts who want to incorporate Stochastics into their trading process. The concepts covered may help you identify momentum shifts, potential reversal zones, and trend confirmations across different markets and timeframes. Learn more about futures trading with TradingView: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools — not forecasting instruments.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Optimus Futures
1
BTC - Short a Stop Hunt and Stay on the Right SideI’m breaking my larger idea down into multiple trades, now that others are opening up to the reality that it’s possible. These order blocks shown are filled with long position stop losses, leveraged sell orders that only fill when price crosses over - and will set off like a chain reaction. This will create a very fast drop IE Stop Hunt - and we can take advantage of it. TRADE 1 - SHORT Entry - 120,200 to 120,500 Stop Loss - 123,800 (although I don’t see Bitcoin rising back above 121,000 before this trade completes) Target 1 - 97,250 (Close 25% of trade) Target 2 - 69,400 (Close 50% of trade) Target 3 - 38,100 (Close 40-90% of trade as it’s possible we continue to drop and don’t retrace from here to 90,000 appx) I’ll be logging this trade. All the best and buckle in. - DD
Short
by DickDandy
ES (SPX, SPY) Futures Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Wed, Oct 8The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is currently exhibiting a primary uptrend on the higher timeframes while consolidating just below a significant resistance level between 6,785 and 6,795. As we approach the New York morning session, the prevailing expectation is for a range-to-trend expansion, dependent on whether the 6,758–6,795 range is broken. The 6,785–6,795 zone should be regarded as the immediate focal point for decision-making. Event & Risk Calendar (ET) • 07:00–07:15 — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). • 10:30 — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard Wednesday release). • 14:00 — FOMC Minutes (Sept 16–17 meeting). Expect volatility expansion on release. A++ Setups (Tier-1, Level-KZ 15/5/1) 1. Trend-Continuation LONG at R1 break Trigger: 15-minute full-body close above 6,795, 5-minute pullback holds 6,785–6,795, 1-minute higher-low confirms. Entry: 6,788–6,795 on the retest/hold. Invalidation: 15-minute body back below ~6,785. Targets: TP1 6,818–6,825; TP2 6,858–6,866; TP3 6,898–6,905. Risk: Hard SL = relevant 15-minute wick low −0.25–0.50 pts; take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; max 2 attempts per level. 2. Rejection-Fade SHORT at R1 failure Trigger: Probe into 6,785–6,795 fails: 15-minute rejection close back below, 5-minute lower-high forms, 1-minute pullback fails. Entry: 6,785–6,792 on failure. Invalidation: 15-minute body acceptance above ~6,795. Targets: TP1 6,756–6,761; TP2 6,744–6,749; TP3 6,727–6,733. Risk: Same management as Setup 1 (wick-anchored SL; 70/30 at TP1; max 2 attempts).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
How to Use The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in TradingViewMaster RSI using TradingView’s charting tools in this comprehensive tutorial from Optimus Futures. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most widely used momentum indicators in technical analysis. It helps traders identify potential overbought and oversold conditions, spot divergences, and confirm the strength of trends. What You’ll Learn: Understanding RSI: a momentum oscillator plotted from 0 to 100 Key thresholds: how readings above 70 suggest overbought conditions and below 30 suggest oversold conditions Why RSI signals are not automatic buy/sell triggers, and how strong trends can keep RSI extended for long periods Spotting bullish and bearish price divergences Using RSI to confirm trends How to add RSI on TradingView via the Indicators menu Understanding the default inputs and how changing them affects the indicator Example on the E-mini S&P 500 futures: how RSI dipping below 30 and crossing back above can highlight momentum shifts Combining RSI with other analysis for better confirmation Practical applications across multiple timeframes, from intraday trading to swing setups This tutorial will benefit futures traders, swing traders, and technical analysts who want to incorporate RSI into their trading strategies. The concepts covered may help you identify momentum shifts, potential reversal points, and confirmation of trend strength across different markets Learn more about futures trading with TradingView: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Optimus Futures
Futures vs Spot: What Traders Need to Know1. Introduction In crypto, two of the most common ways to trade are spot markets and futures markets. Both can be profitable, but they operate differently and knowing the differences is critical for survival. Spot trading is straightforward: you buy the asset, you own it. Futures trading is more complex: you speculate on the asset’s price without actually owning it. This guide explains the differences, benefits, and risks of each so you can decide which suits your style. 2. What Is Spot Trading? Spot trading is simple. You buy the asset, you own it. There is no leverage. You pay the full price. Profit and loss move one-to-one with the asset’s price. Pros Simple to understand. No liquidation risk. Can benefit from staking or long-term custody. Cons Limited upside with small capital. Cannot profit when the market falls. 3. What Is Futures Trading? Futures are contracts. You do not own the asset, only exposure to its price. They allow leverage, often up to 10x or more. You can go long to profit from rising markets or short to profit from falling ones. Contracts can have expiry dates or be perpetual. Pros Flexibility to trade both directions. Efficient capital use with leverage. Useful for hedging spot positions. Cons Liquidation risk. Complex funding fees on perpetuals. Temptation to overtrade. 4. Key Differences: Spot vs Futures Spot = You own the asset. Futures = You own a contract. Spot = No leverage. Futures = High leverage possible. Spot = Profits only when price rises. Futures = Profits when price rises or falls. Spot = Best for beginners and investors. Futures = Best for experienced traders and hedgers. Spot = simplicity. Futures = flexibility, but higher risk. 5. Why Futures Can Be Risky Leverage is attractive, but it cuts both ways: A 10 percent drop with 10x leverage equals a 100 percent account loss. Liquidations close positions automatically if collateral is too low. 6. When to Use Spot vs Futures Use spot if you want to own crypto long-term. Use spot if you prefer simplicity and no liquidation stress. Use futures if you want to hedge your holdings. Use futures if you need market exposure with limited capital. Use futures only if you have strict discipline and risk control. 7. Combining Spot and Futures Many professionals use both: Hold spot ETH as a long-term investment. Use futures shorts to hedge during downturns. This balances long-term conviction with short-term protection. Think of it like insurance: futures protect spot positions when markets get volatile. 8. Risk Management Is the Deciding Factor Whether you trade spot or futures, risk management decides survival: In spot: limit allocation per asset. In futures: control leverage, set stop losses, and manage liquidation risk. In both: size positions by account % risk. Without a risk plan, futures become gambling and even spot can lead to poor results.
Education
by HyroTrader
15
Nasdaq Is About to Choose: Melt Up or MeltdownNasdaq E-minis (NQ1) are coiling at a key inflection point. -If 24,874 breaks, a push into 25,100 looks likely. -Clear that level, and bulls can stretch to 25,300–25,385 for a solid run. -But if we lose 24,782, pressure builds toward 24,689… and a break there exposes 24,439. Here’s the part most traders miss: these levels aren’t just numbers; they’re liquidity traps. One side of the market gets baited in, then the other side runs with it. 👉 Smart money already knows which pockets matter most. Retail will find out the hard way. How are you positioning if NQ1 breaks either way?
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Mindbloome-Trading
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Fri, (Oct 3)08:30 Employment Situation (NFP, unemployment rate, wages) is scheduled, per BLS release calendar. Note: multiple outlets report the federal shutdown may delay key reports, including payrolls—treat 08:30 as tentative. 10:00 ISM Services PMI (third business day @ 10:00). Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) Kill-zones (ET): London 02:00–05:00 (optional), NY AM 09:30–11:00 (primary), NY PM 13:30–16:00 (primary). Stops: Hard SL anchored to the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts. Targets: TP1 = major opposing level. At TP1: close 70%, set runner 30% to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. No trail before TP2. Time-stop: 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts per level per session. Acceptance Continuation — LONG (Tier-1 A++) Trigger: 15m body-through acceptance above 6,788 → 5m pullback holds ≥6,782 and re-closes up → 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,784–6,788 reclaim. SL: ~6,778 (below trigger wick). TPs: 6,800 → 6,810 → 6,822–6,830. Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≤6,782. 3) Quick-Reclaim Bounce at PDL — LONG (Tier-2 A+) Trigger: Sweep 6,742–6,746, instant reclaim with 5m close back above 6,746 → 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,744–6,746 after reclaim. SL: 6,737–6,739 (below sweep low). TPs: 6,762 → 6,774 → 6,786. Sizing: Tier-2 (¾ size). 4) Breakdown & Hold — SHORT (Trend/Acceptance) Trigger: 15m acceptance below 6,742, 5m pullback fails ≤6,742 and re-closes down. Entry: 6,740–6,742. SL: 6,748–6,750. TPs: 6,725 → 6,710 → 6,695. Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≥6,748. === Rejection Fade at PDH — SHORT (Tier-1 A++) Trigger: First touch 6,786–6,788 fails; 15m rejection close back inside ≤6,782, 5m lower-high + re-close down → 1m LH entry. Entry: 6,782–6,786. SL: 6,791–6,794 (above rejection wick). TPs: 6,762 → 6,746 → 6,725. Invalidation: 15m body > 6,788. PA Thoughts: Overnight (Asia/London): Looking at the base case rotation between 6,758 and 6,786. I’ll be fading the edges on the first touch of this range (Setups 2/3). A break and acceptance beyond these edges would open up potential targets—6,800 to the upside and 6,725 to the downside. If the Asia session pushes into the R2 and faces rejection, I’ll look for a lower high back toward S1. However, if we see acceptance above, expect a grind toward 6,800–6,810. NY AM (09:30–11:00): Depending on the 08:30 data release, be prepared for potential fast, one-sided movement. I plan to stay on the sidelines until we see a 15-minute acceptance at R2/S2, then I’ll execute Setup 1 for an upward move or Setup 4 for a downward trend. If the data comes in delayed or shows benign results, anticipate the first impulse to shift to 10:00, and I’ll apply the same acceptance strategy at the nearest edge. NY PM (13:30–16:00): If we hold above 6,788 from the AM session, I’ll target the 6,800–6,810 range and manage runners toward 6,822–6,830 as we approach the close. Conversely, if the AM session fails between 6,786 and 6,788, I expect to see lower highs towards 6,758 and possibly down to 6,746. A clean break below 6,742 would open the door for a slide to 6,725.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
Key support at 1.3330, bulls eye 1.3570-1.3630The British pound is trading at a turning point, with futures consolidating after rebounding from late-September lows. The Fed’s shift toward potential rate cuts contrasts with the Bank of England’s reluctance to ease, giving sterling short-term support while leaving medium-term risks intact. Technically, the market is confined within a clear corridor, while sentiment signals remain mixed: retail traders are largely short, a contrarian bullish sign, whereas institutional flows are split between asset managers and leveraged funds. Options activity adds another dimension, with heavier open interest in puts but greater premium flows into calls, creating an area of attraction around 1.3450–1.3550. Taken together, these factors suggest a market in balance, with the next decisive move likely to come from a break outside this range. Fundamental Analysis The current GBP/USD dynamics are largely driven by the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, against a backdrop of U.S. political uncertainty and the UK’s fiscal constraints. On the U.S. side, the Fed has maintained a restrictive stance, but market expectations are shifting toward two rate cuts by the end of 2025, supported by cooling inflation and signs of slower activity. The looming U.S. government shutdown has added volatility, but overall it tends to weigh on the dollar in the near term. In contrast, the Bank of England remains constrained by persistent inflation, particularly in services and food, leaving little room to consider rate cuts in the short run. Recent BoE commentary indicates that rates are likely to stay elevated for longer, even as UK growth shows signs of weakness. In essence, the Fed appears to be moving toward a more accommodative path while the BoE maintains a hawkish bias to contain inflation. This divergence supports sterling in the short term. However, the UK still faces structural headwinds such as a large current account deficit and fiscal pressures, which could cap medium-term upside for the pound. Technical Analysis On the December contract, the technical structure remains dominated by a wide congestion area around 1.3440, identified as a key volume control point. As long as prices hold above this level, the bias remains moderately positive, supported by visible buying volume on recent rebounds. Immediate resistance stands at 1.3490–1.3525, which corresponds to the 100-DMA on spot and the 50% retracement of the 1.3726–1.3324 move. Beyond that, the 1.3570–1.3630 area (61.8% Fib and upper Bollinger band) marks the next critical barrier. On the downside, 1.3425 and especially 1.3330 (September 25 low) act as major supports: a break would reopen a bearish bias toward 1.3260. In summary, the immediate trend remains fragile but constructive, with direction hinging on a decisive breakout above 1.3525. Sentiment Analysis Sentiment on GBP/USD remains mixed across market participants. Among FX/CFD brokers, around two-thirds of retail traders are short, which sends a contrarian signal leaning bullish in the short term. However, COT data shows the opposite picture: asset managers hold a significant net short position (-44,909), reflecting structural caution toward the UK’s economic and fiscal outlook, while leveraged funds maintain a net long position (+27,662), betting more on tactical rebounds. This divergence between retail, speculative, and institutional flows creates a polarized market, prone to volatility spikes. Options Activity On the current expiry, option activity shows an interesting contrast. Open interest is heavier on the put side, highlighting demand for downside protection. However, in terms of premiums paid, calls clearly dominate, suggesting traders are willing to spend more to capture potential upside. The densest clusters of open interest are found around 1.3350–1.3400 for puts and 1.3450–1.3550 for calls, creating a key technical corridor. In short, the market keeps safety nets in place against a drop, but the premium flows reveal a moderate bullish bias, with expectations leaning toward further gains if spot holds above 1.3450. Trade Idea Direction: Long GBP futures (6BZ5) while above 1.3450 Entry Zone: 1.3460–1.3480, just above the key support cluster Take Profit (TP1): 1.3570, aligning with 61.8% Fib retracement and option OI cluster Take Profit (TP2): 1.3630, upper Bollinger band and stronger resistance zone Stop Loss (SL): Close below 1.3330, which invalidates the support and reopens the 1.3260 risk Final Thoughts Sterling futures are at an important crossroads, caught between supportive short-term dynamics and persistent structural headwinds. On the fundamental side, the dollar’s softer tone, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts, has provided the pound with breathing space, while the Bank of England’s reluctance to ease keeps policy divergence working in sterling’s favor. Technically, however, the market remains capped by heavy resistance around 1.3570–1.3630, a zone reinforced by Fibonacci levels, moving averages, and historical supply. Sentiment adds to the mixed picture: retail traders leaning short point to contrarian upside risk, but institutional positioning highlights lingering caution. Meanwhile, options activity reveals a market hedged against downside but increasingly willing to pay for upside exposure, anchoring prices in a corridor between 1.3450 and 1.3550. In this environment, sterling’s path will likely be shaped by which side of this corridor breaks first. Until then, buying dips above 1.3450 with disciplined stops offers the cleaner tactical play. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ . This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6BZ2025Long
by satelysfx
Oil Playing Twister: Triple Bottom or Quadruple Pretzel?A Triple Bottom Walks Into a Bar… Crude Oil (CL) has been busy doing something traders love and hate at the same time: building bottoms. First, it carved a neat Triple Bottom on the daily chart — textbook stuff. Everyone lined up at 66.68 waiting for the breakout champagne to pop. But what did price do? Instead of exploding higher, it slammed on the brakes and took a detour straight back to support. Typical CL — always keeping traders on their toes. Now we’re staring at the possibility of a Quadruple Bottom. Not a typo. Yes, they exist, but you don’t see them every day. Like spotting a unicorn in Times Square. Why We Care About 66.68 That level isn’t just random. It’s the line where: The Triple Bottom neckline lives. The Supertrend upper band hangs out. And, conveniently, the breakeven of our options spread sits. In other words: get above 66.68 and suddenly this setup has wings. Target? Around 70.63, where UFO resistance is waiting to greet us. The Fun Part: Bull Call Spread Instead of swinging a giant futures bat and risking unlimited pain, we play it smarter with a Bull Call Spread: Buy the 65 Call (Nov-17) Sell the 71 Call (Nov-17) Pay about 1.75 points (≈ $1,750 per standard spread, ≈ $175 if you go micro). That’s it. Risk capped, reward mapped. Max loss? $1,750. Max gain? $4,250. And yes, the breakeven is… drumroll… 66.8. Same line as the chart breakout. Love when math and pictures line up. Plot Twist: Cheaper Now, But… Here’s the kicker: because price dipped back into support, the spread might actually be cheaper right now. Sounds good, right? But there’s a catch. Waiting for the breakout confirmation could make the spread pricier later, shrinking your reward-to-risk. Classic trading dilemma: do you want cheaper tickets with less confirmation, or more expensive tickets after the bouncer checks your ID? Risk in 3 Sentences Keep your trade size sane. Don’t marry the setup if price dumps below the bottoms. If CL rushes toward 70, take the money and run (or at least roll the short strike higher). Bottom Line Crude Oil is still building its base. Maybe it’s a Triple Bottom. Maybe it becomes the rare Quadruple Bottom collectors dream about. Either way, the play is the same: breakout above 66.68, aim for 70.63, and do it with a defined-risk Bull Call Spread that doesn’t keep you up at night. Sometimes the market is dramatic. That’s why we trade it. 🎭 Want More Depth? If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one: 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by traddictiv
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