USD Dollar Index (DXY): Pushing Higher As Forecast!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 30 - Aug1
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
USD Index
In my last USD video, the forecast was for higher prices. Check the related links below to see that video forecast. It played out exactly as analyzed. The +FVG was used to push for higher prices. The FOMC decision to keep the rate unchanged only pushed it further along.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Fvg
BONK | Waiting for DemandNo position yet—alerts are set for the FVG and HTF demand zone below. DOGE/BONK still showing relative strength, so patience here is warranted.
Plan:
Wait for price to tag HTF area of interest (FVG/demand).
Look for LTF trigger for a long entry.
Prefer clean sweep/reclaim for confirmation.
Reasoning:
BONK has strong momentum, but entry here is late after an extended run.
Letting the setup come to me reduces risk of getting caught in a local top.
DOGE/BONK relative strength signals not to rush.
SEI | Setup: Sweep & Reclaim Scenario:Wait for a sweep of the range low (RL) into the Daily FVG (gray box).
Look for a reclaim of RL as the trigger for a long.
Reasoning:
Sweep into FVG traps late sellers and sets up liquidity for a reversal.
Reclaiming RL after the sweep signals strength and confirms a local bottom.
No need to chase entries—best R:R is after liquidity is cleared and level is retaken.
EURUSD – Will the bullish parallel channel hold?The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading within a clearly defined bullish parallel channel, as shown on the 4-hour chart. This channel has provided consistent directional structure over recent weeks, with price respecting both its upper resistance and lower support boundaries. At present, the pair is approaching the lower end of this channel, raising the critical question: will it bounce off support and continue the bullish trajectory, or will it decisively break down, opening the door to lower price targets?
Bullish parallel channel
On the 4-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has been consistently moving within a bullish parallel channel, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This price structure suggests sustained upward momentum, with the top of the channel acting as dynamic resistance and the bottom as reliable support. Today, price action is testing the lower boundary of the channel once again. A successful hold at this level could confirm continued bullish structure and open the door for a potential rebound.
Bullish scenario
In the bullish scenario, the EUR/USD holds its ground at the support region around 1.164, where the lower boundary of the channel intersects with price. For upward continuation, it must overcome the short-term resistance posed by the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 1.169 and 1.174. A reclaim and close above this zone could signal a shift in short-term momentum and lead to a move back toward the upper boundary of the channel. However, the path upward is not without resistance , price must navigate through potential supply zones and maintain higher lows to preserve the bullish structure.
Bearish scenario
On the other hand, a break and close below the channel support could indicate a change in market sentiment and invalidate the bullish pattern. In this bearish case, we would expect a structure break confirmation followed by a possible retest of the broken trendline and the 4-hour FVG. If this retest fails to reclaim the trendline, bearish continuation becomes more likely. The next significant area of interest lies around the 1.150 level, where a bullish 4-hour FVG exists. This zone could act as a potential short-term support and serve as a target for the downside move before any meaningful bounce occurs.
Final thoughts
The EUR/USD pair is currently at a technical crossroads. Traders should watch closely for price behavior around the lower channel boundary to determine whether bullish momentum will resume or whether a bearish breakout will set the tone for deeper retracement. Confirmation, either through a bounce or a breakdown with a retest, will be key in validating the next directional move.
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Gold - Eyes on the Final Flush Before ReclaimGold recently dropped after reacting perfectly inside a higher time frame fair value gap. That zone acted as clean supply, offering a precise close within the imbalance and initiating a strong bearish leg. The move confirmed that buyers were overwhelmed at that level, and price began its descent back into a broader consolidation range.
Support Cluster and Fibonacci Alignment
The current zone being tested holds significant weight. Price has tapped into a clear support region, one that has already caused multiple strong bounces in recent sessions. What adds further confluence is the alignment of this zone with the golden pocket region of the entire upward leg. This kind of technical overlap increases the chances of responsive buying once liquidity is cleared below.
Liquidity Target and Inducement Setup
Just below current price action, there's a clean low that hasn't been taken out yet. This low acts as the inducement, sitting right above deeper Fibonacci levels, especially the 0.702. If price continues lower in the short term, a sweep of that low into the golden pocket would provide the ideal liquidity grab before a reversal. The market often rewards those who wait for that final flush.
Bullish Recovery Path
Once the liquidity is taken and price stabilizes at the golden pocket zone, the path is open for a recovery move back into the midrange and potentially higher. The most likely magnet for price after a successful bounce would be the previous resistance zone, which coincides with the 0.5 retracement of the recent drop. That area should act as the next decision point and could either cap the rally or provide the base for a continuation if buyers show strength.
What I’m Watching
The cleanest scenario would be a sweep of the low just below support, ideally pushing into the lower green box near the 0.702 level, followed by a strong bullish reaction. I’ll be watching for a market structure shift on the lower timeframes at that point to confirm the entry. If that happens, the trade has room to develop back into the prior resistance zone, offering a solid range for intraday or swing setups.
Conclusion
Gold remains in a broader range for now, but the technicals suggest one more drop to clear late long positions before a recovery. The reaction at the support cluster will be crucial. If bulls step in after the sweep, there’s a high-probability path back toward resistance, with the move likely supported by the golden pocket confluence.
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BTC Breaks Structure After Liquidity Grab! Massive Move Loading…BTC/USD Technical Analysis – July 25, 2025
Structure Overview:
The current BTC/USD price action showcases a classic market structure shift, with multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS), liquidity grabs, and a clear intent to revisit premium pricing zones. The chart follows a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, identifying key supply and demand areas.
Key Highlights:
🔹 Break of Structure (BOS):
Several BOS events indicate momentum shifts and short-term trend reversals. The most recent BOS near the support zone suggests a potential bullish move after liquidity sweep.
🔹 Sell-Side Liquidity & Equal Lows:
BTC swept the Equal Low level near $114,000, triggering Sell-side Liquidity. This liquidity grab is often a manipulative move by institutional players to collect orders before driving price higher.
🔹 Support Zone:
The support zone near $114,900–$114,000 is holding strong. Price wicked into this area, collected liquidity, and reacted with bullish intent.
🔹 Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG):
A Bearish FVG exists around $117,500–$118,000, which may act as short-term resistance. Price could partially fill this gap before resuming direction.
🔹 Target Zone:
Projected target lies at $119,637, aligning with the prior resistance zone and offering a high-probability area for price delivery based on the current bullish market structure.
🔹 Volume Profile Support:
The volume profile suggests high volume accumulation in the current range, further supporting the possibility of a bullish expansion phase.
Forecast Summary:
Bias: Bullish (Short-term)
Entry Zone: Confirmed after BOS and liquidity sweep near support
Target: $119,637 (resistance zone)
Invalidation Level: Sustained break below $114,000
⚠️ Risk Note:
A rejection from the Bearish FVG or failure to break above $117,800 may cause a deeper pullback. Monitor reactions around key levels before continuation.
XLM Explodes +132% — Is the Party Over or Just Starting?XLM has been one of the top movers, sweeping the January 2025 swing high at $0.515 before stalling and moving sideways for the past 4 days.
Is XLM gearing up for another push toward the highs, or is a correction imminent?
Let’s dive into the details.
🧩 Market Structure & Fractal Pattern
XLM skyrocketed +132% in just 13 days, mirroring the explosive move seen back in November 2024.
If we apply the November fractal, the current price action suggests we could be setting up for an ABC corrective move.
📉 Key Levels & Confluences
FVG Zone: ~$0.49–$0.50 — likely to be swept before any major move down.
Monthly Support: $0.4142
Key Level / Liquidity Pool: $0.4056 — likely cluster of stop-losses.
Anchored VWAP (from $0.2228 start of trend): currently near $0.4056, adding strong confluence.
1.0 Trend-Based Fib Extension (ABC projection): If price pushes to ~$0.49 to complete wave B, the projected 1.0 TBFE for wave C lands right on the $0.4056 key level + VWAP, creating a perfect confluence zone.
➡️ Conclusion: The $0.4142–$0.4056 zone is a critical support and liquidity area with multiple confluences lining up.
Trade Setups
🔴 Short Setup:
Entry zone: $0.48–$0.50 (ladder in)
Stop-loss: Above $0.5166 (prior high)
Take-profit: $0.4142–$0.4056 zone
R:R ≈ 1:3
🟢 Long Setup:
Entry zone: $0.4142–$0.4056 (preferably near VWAP)
Stop-loss: Below $0.395
Take-profit: $0.44
⚡ Final Thoughts
Watch for a potential final push toward $0.49–$0.50 before a corrective wave unfolds.
The confluence at the $0.4142–$0.4056 zone — including monthly/weekly levels, VWAP, liquidity pool, and the 1.0 TBFE target — makes it a key area for decision-making.
Stay patient and wait for confirmation at these levels. Will post an update as things unfold!
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DOGE – HTF Plan & Spot Reload ZoneSpot Position & Realized Profit:
Spot position held from the $0.19 sweep.
Previous long from demand taken and partially realized at $0.26, de-risking the core position.
Current Structure:
After reaching resistance ($0.26–$0.27 zone), price is retracing.
Daily demand/support sits around $0.20–$0.21, with multiple confluences for spot re-accumulation.
Immediate Plan:
Waiting for price to revisit daily demand ($0.20–$0.21) to reload spot and/or open fresh longs.
Watching for a possible lower timeframe (1H) bullish confirmation (e.g., 1H change of structure/1H CSD) as a trigger for a tactical long before daily demand is tagged.
LTF Play:
If price prints a 1H CSD, a quick long up to daily imbalance ($0.24–$0.25) can be considered.
Invalidation:
Loss of daily demand ($0.188) would invalidate the bullish scenario and require re-evaluation.
Upside Target:
If demand holds, looking for moves back into daily supply/imbalance, with ultimate HTF targets at $0.26, $0.32, and higher.
Reasoning:
The core plan is to build spot exposure at strong demand after de-risking on the first move up. The context is that DOGE has shown willingness to bounce at major demand, and with realized profits in the pocket, risk can be managed comfortably on new entries. Short-term, LTF confirmation (such as a 1H CSD) can offer a tactical long back into daily imbalance before the main reloading zone is tagged. Patience and precise triggers are key—no need to rush until price action confirms.
Understanding Market Structure: GBPJPY Trendline Support 📊 GBPJPY Technical Analysis — 15-Min Chart (As of July 24, 2025)
Trend Structure & Price Action
The chart shows a clear ascending trendline, connecting higher lows across the last sessions.
Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) points confirm bullish market behavior, with price consistently forming higher highs and higher lows.
The most recent BOS and price rejection from the lower boundary of the cloud band indicate bullish intent is still active.
Indicators Used
Custom Cloud Band (EMA Based 20, 1.5 settings):
Price is oscillating within and around the cloud band.
Recent candles are attempting to reclaim the upper band, suggesting building bullish momentum.
Volume Profile (VRVP) shows strong volume support around the 198.200–198.500 range, aligning with the trendline.
Support & Resistance
Support Zone: 198.200 (trendline confluence + volume shelf)
Immediate Resistance: 198.800–199.000
Major Resistance: 199.400 (next psychological level and prior high)
Forecast & Trade Idea (Educational Purpose)
If price continues to respect the ascending trendline and breaks above the recent local high (~198.750), we could see a bullish breakout toward 199.200+.
A bullish flag or small consolidation above the trendline before breakout is likely, as illustrated by the arrow.
Invalidation occurs if price breaks and closes below the trendline and 198.200, which may trigger a short-term correction.
✅ Conclusion
GBPJPY is currently in a bullish market structure with support from both trendline and volume profile. A clean breakout above 198.800 with volume confirmation could fuel continuation toward 199.200 and beyond. Risk management is crucial — watch for false breakouts or a shift in structure below the rising trendline.
Mastering Buy Side and Sell Side Liquidity - How to trade it!In trading, understanding liquidity is one of the keys to predicting where the market might go next. The Inner Circle Trader (ICT) method teaches traders how to recognize where big players like banks and institutions are likely to enter or exit trades. Two important ideas in ICT trading are buy side liquidity and sell side liquidity. Once you understand what these terms mean and how to spot them on a chart, you can start using them to find better trading opportunities.
What will be discussed?
- What is Buy Side Liquidity?
- What is Sell Side Liquidity?
- How do you see Buy and Sell Side Liquidity?
- Examples
- How to trade BSL and SLL Liquidity?
What is Buy Side Liquidity
Buy side liquidity is found above market highs. It refers to all the stop loss orders from people who are holding short positions. When the market is going down, some traders sell (or go short) and place their stop losses above recent highs to protect themselves. These stop losses are actually buy orders because closing a short position requires buying. Big institutions know this, so they push price upward to trigger those stop losses and grab that liquidity. That’s why you’ll often see the market spike above a recent high before reversing. That spike is the market grabbing buy side liquidity.
What is Sell Side Liquidity
Sell side liquidity is the opposite. It’s found below recent lows. This is where traders who are buying (going long) place their stop losses. If someone buys a market, they’ll usually put a stop loss just below a previous low. That stop loss is a sell order. Smart money looks at these areas as pools of sell side liquidity. So when the market moves down quickly and breaks a recent low, it’s likely collecting those sell stop orders. After that, you’ll often see a reversal because the liquidity has been taken.
How do you see Buy and Sell Side Liquidity?
You can spot buy side and sell side liquidity by looking at the chart and identifying recent highs and lows where many traders might have placed stop losses. These are usually obvious swing highs and swing lows. If you look at a chart and see a clean high where price previously reversed, that’s likely where traders are placing stops. That makes it a target for buy side liquidity. Same for a recent low, if it’s a clean level where people might have bought in the past, that low probably holds sell side liquidity. The more obvious the level looks, the more likely it’s full of stops and therefore a liquidity target.
Examples
How to trade BSL and SLL Liquidity?
Trading liquidity means watching for the market to run above a recent high (to take buy side liquidity) or below a recent low (to take sell side liquidity), and then looking for signs of reversal. Once liquidity has been taken, the market often changes direction.
When you’re trading the ICT concept of liquidity, the key is not just spotting where liquidity lies, but also knowing when price is likely to reverse after that liquidity has been taken. Reversals don’t happen randomly, they leave clues on the chart. Here’s how you can recognize those signs in a simple way:
1. Market Structure Break
This is one of the clearest signs of a reversal. Let’s say the market grabs sell side liquidity by breaking below a recent low. If price then quickly starts moving up and breaks above the last lower high, that’s a break in structure. It shows that sellers are losing control and buyers are stepping in. It’s the first confirmation that the direction might be changing.
2. Rejection Wicks or Strong Candles
After price runs into liquidity (above a high or below a low), watch the candlesticks closely. If you see a long wick rejecting the level, or a strong candle in the opposite direction right after the liquidity grab, that’s a clue. It means price went there, collected the orders, and got rejected fast. That rejection shows the market might be reversing.
3. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
Fair value gaps are small “windows” left in price when it moves quickly in one direction. After liquidity is taken and price starts reversing, it often leaves an FVG behind. If price pulls back into that gap and holds, that can be a great entry point. FVGs act like magnets and support zones in ICT.
4. Displacement
Displacement is a strong, impulsive move that breaks structure. It usually happens right after liquidity is taken. If price moves very fast in the opposite direction after hitting a liquidity level, that’s a good sign smart money is behind the move and it’s not just random noise. That strong push is a hint that a new trend might be forming.
5. Change in Character (CHOCH)
This is a shift in how the market behaves. For example, price might be making lower highs and lower lows (a bearish trend), but after liquidity is taken, it suddenly starts making higher highs and higher lows. That change in character tells you the trend might be reversing.
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EUR/USD - Bullish parallel channel formation!The EUR/USD currency pair is currently exhibiting a bullish market structure on the 4-hour timeframe, moving steadily within a well-defined ascending parallel channel. Price action has consistently bounced between the lower and upper boundaries of the channel, with each dip finding support at the lower trendline and each rally meeting resistance near the upper trendline. This ongoing pattern suggests a strong and orderly bullish trend as the pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows within the channel.
The Market’s Upward Momentum
One notable feature of this trend is the recurring formation of 4-hour Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) during each upward leg. These FVGs act as temporary inefficiencies in the price movement, which the market consistently returns to fill before resuming its bullish momentum. As shown in the chart, the EUR/USD has filled multiple FVGs over the past week. Today, the pair once again retraced to fill a newly formed 4H FVG and has since continued its move higher. This repeated behavior reinforces the strength of the uptrend, as the market efficiently corrects itself and then propels further in the direction of the overall trend.
Bullish Outlook
From a bullish perspective, the key level to watch is the horizontal resistance zone around 1.1766. A confirmed break and hold above this level would signal a strong continuation of the current uptrend. Should the price sustain itself above this level, it could initiate a renewed push toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel, potentially targeting levels near 1.1820 and beyond. This scenario would confirm market confidence and open the door for further gains.
Bearish Risk
On the flip side, the bearish case would involve a false breakout above the 1.1766 resistance level, followed by a sharp rejection and a break below the rising lower trendline of the channel. Such a move would invalidate the current structure and shift the bias to the downside. In that case, the 4-hour FVG located between approximately 1.1710 and 1.1740 will act as a critical support zone. If this area fails to hold, it could trigger a deeper retracement and potentially lead to a more prolonged bearish correction.
Final thoughts
In summary, the EUR/USD is currently respecting a bullish parallel channel on the 4-hour timeframe, with upward moves consistently leaving and then filling 4H FVGs before continuing higher. The 1.1766 level is pivotal, a sustained break above it favors continued bullish momentum, while a rejection and breakdown from the channel could signal a bearish reversal. Traders should closely monitor price behavior around this key level and the integrity of the ascending channel to anticipate the next significant move.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Bitcoin - Bullish Reversal PotentialBitcoin is currently consolidating within a well-defined range, with repeated rejections from the upper resistance zone and strong reactions from the support below. Price continues to respect both ends of the structure, suggesting that liquidity is being built up on both sides. Until a clear breakout occurs, we should expect more range-bound movement with sharp rejections near the boundaries.
Support Zone and Liquidity Engineering
The support zone beneath current price action has already held several times, showing clear buying interest. However, the lows around this area remain relatively clean. A sweep of those lows would not only engineer sell-side liquidity but also set the stage for a reversal if buyers step back in. This would align well with typical accumulation behavior seen during consolidation phases.
Rejections from Resistance and FVG Influence
Price has shown multiple rejections from the resistance zone, particularly inside the fair value gap that sits just above it. This confirms that the area is actively defended and will likely be the next upside target if price manages to bounce from support. The FVG itself acts as a magnet once price begins to trend again, especially if a strong displacement follows a sweep.
Expected Flow and Trade Opportunity
The anticipated scenario involves price dipping back into support, possibly sweeping the lows for inducement, and then bouncing with a shift in short-term structure. If that happens, we can expect a move back toward resistance, completing another rotation within the range. The sweep would offer an added layer of confirmation, giving a stronger reason to look for long setups.
Invalidation and Risk Perspective
If support fails to hold and price breaks beneath the range without immediate recovery, that would invalidate the bullish view and point to a potential shift in directional bias. As long as price stays inside the current consolidation, however, this remains a waiting game for either a clean reaction from support or a sweep followed by structure shift.
Conclusion
Bitcoin remains locked in a clear range, and until the breakout happens, the edges of that range offer the best trading opportunities. A sweep of the lows would act as a high-probability signal for a reversal back to the highs. Patience is key, wait for the sweep and confirmation before committing to the upside.
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to identify BPRs on Brent Oil FuturesI am not good at the ICT price action style. So I got 2 questions for traders that know this well.
1. Did i draw the correct BPRs? I use both bars and volume profile to filter FVGs
2. Do you only use BPRs to do after break trend following or position closing, or you can actually use them in resistance reversal entry?
Need your help and advice mates.
Bitcoin - Triangle pattern consolidation!The Bitcoin price action is currently coiling within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, as illustrated in the chart provided. After a significant bullish move earlier this month, BTC has now entered a phase of consolidation, marked by a series of lower highs and higher lows. This has formed a triangle pattern, suggesting an imminent breakout as price nears the apex. The upper boundary of the triangle acts as dynamic resistance, while the rising lower trendline provides firm support. Given the preceding upward momentum leading into this consolidation, the bias slightly favors a breakout to the upside, though the market can always surprise.
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case, Bitcoin would need to break convincingly above the descending resistance trendline. Should that occur, the next key level to watch lies within the 4-hour bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $120,500 and $121,400. This region represents an area of inefficiency where price moved rapidly in the past, and it is likely to attract selling pressure again. Bulls would ideally aim to reclaim this zone with strong momentum and potentially use it as support in a retest scenario. A successful retest of the triangle’s upper boundary could also trigger a liquidity grab above recent highs, particularly above the all-time high levels.
Bearish Scenario
On the flip side, a bearish breakout would involve BTC breaking below the ascending support trendline. If this happens, the most probable downside target would be the CME gap left behind from two weekends ago, located between $114,300 and $115,500. This price gap occurred due to the discrepancy between Friday’s closing price and Sunday’s opening price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, often a magnet for price reversion. After this gap is filled, it is possible that BTC sees a short-term bounce to retest the triangle from below, before potentially continuing lower to address further imbalances in price action.
How to Confirm a Valid Breakout
Trading triangle patterns can be deceptive, as BTC often exhibits false breakouts designed to trap traders on the wrong side. To confirm a valid breakout, it's crucial to observe at least a few 4-hour candles closing decisively above or below the triangle boundaries. Additionally, breakout strength should be accompanied by a noticeable increase in volume. A breakout without volume confirmation is often a sign of a fake move, and entering trades under such conditions can be highly risky.
Final Thoughts
BTC is currently consolidating within this symmetrical triangle formation, signaling a period of indecision and potential volatility ahead. While both bullish and bearish scenarios are plausible, it is essential to wait for clear confirmation before committing to a position. Patience and discipline are key, especially when navigating patterns prone to fake-outs. For now, remaining on the sidelines until a confirmed breakout occurs may be the most prudent strategy.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
EURAUD: Waiting for the FVG Tap and Confirmation to ShortPrice ran previous liquidity and dropped aggressively, creating a clean FVG.
I’m now watching for price to retrace into that imbalance and form a strong bearish candle. If it does, I’ll be looking to short down
Clean structure. Just waiting for confirmation.
The Layout tool that Changed the Game for MeTradingView’s layout tool has really helped me stay focused. Using the 1-hour on the left and the 4-hour on the right gave me clarity. The 1H showed many Fair Value Gaps, but it was hard to know which one to trust.
The 4H chart made it easier. It showed one clean FVG lining up with the 50 to 61.8 Fib zone. That is the area I will wait for.
If price returns to that zone and I see a clear bearish confirmation candle, I will take the trade with confidence.
This layout tool has improved my analysis. I will make a short video soon to show how I use it. Big thanks to TradingView for building tools that make trading simpler and smarter.
GBPAUD: Liquidity Grab and Fair Value Gap RejectionPrice recently swept liquidity above a key level, grabbing stops resting above that range. Following that, it quickly reversed and left behind a clean Fair Value Gap , suggesting a possible shift in intent.
We are now watching price retrace into the FVG zone. If price reacts from there with a strong bearish confirmation candle like a bearish engulfing or another sign of rejection, we could see a continuation move lower. Our short-term target would be the previous day’s low.
This setup reflects how important it is to wait for confirmation and not chase the first reaction. Let price come to you and show its hand. Patience leads to clarity and better entries.
A trade without confirmation is just a guess. A trade with structure, confluence, and patience is a plan. Stay sharp.
NZDCAD: Patience Before the PushNZDCAD on the 1H chart just completed a clean liquidity sweep below the previous day’s low. That long wick aggressively took out resting sell stops before price sharply reversed.
We’ve now seen a break of structure to the upside, showing a possible shift in market direction. Price is currently pulling back toward two visible imbalance zones (iFVGs), both sitting just below the previous day’s low.
If price trades into these iFVGs and gives us a clear bullish confirmation like a bullish engulfing candle, a rejection wick, or a strong break of structure on lower timeframes, we could look for continuation toward the liquidity above the highs.
📌 Key Levels
• Liquidity sweep below PDL
• Bullish break of structure
• iFVGs aligning as potential entry zones
• Final target: liquidity resting near 0.81900
🧠 Psychology Tip
The best trades don’t need to be forced. Wait for confirmation. A setup without a signal is just a theory. Protect your capital, trade your plan, and trust the process.
Bitcoin – Breakout Coming, But May Be a TrapBitcoin is trading within a well-defined bullish pennant structure on the 1H chart, with clear compression between a rising support and descending resistance. This pattern typically signals a continuation of the prior trend, but given the surrounding liquidity and recent FVG formation, the setup looks more nuanced. After a liquidity sweep earlier this session, price has rebounded and is currently respecting a newly formed 1H fair value gap within the pennant range.
Pennant Structure and Price Reaction
The consolidation is tight and clean, with buyers stepping in off the ascending trendline support. This area overlaps with a small FVG that has so far held as intraday support, suggesting active demand. Until this gap is violated, the structure remains intact and favors a breakout play to the upside. However, with a larger unmitigated FVG sitting just under 121,000 and a previous swing high forming a strong liquidity pool, the upside might be limited.
Buy Side Liquidity and Reversal Area
If price can push above the descending trendline, the next logical target is the buy side liquidity sitting around 120,800 to 121,200. That zone is also where sellers may step in, given it aligns with prior inefficiency and a probable stop hunt level. This makes it a high-probability reversal area. I expect price to take out that buy side before we get a meaningful shift lower again.
Displacement and FVG Reactions
Any clean displacement toward the upside, particularly into the 121k range, will be key to watch for rejection signs. Should we see rejection or an SFP at the liquidity zone, that would likely confirm the short-term top. At that point, I’d expect a return into the pennant or even a sweep of the trendline support again, setting up a deeper retracement.
Short-Term Expectations
In the immediate term, as long as price holds above the current FVG and trendline confluence, I expect Bitcoin to slowly grind higher and break out of the pennant. The objective is the liquidity above 120,800. Once that’s taken, I’ll be watching closely for signs of exhaustion or reversal patterns to get positioned short again.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is compressing within a bullish pennant and currently holding a fair value gap, suggesting bullish continuation in the short term. However, the real play may come after a sweep of the buy side liquidity near 121k, where I expect a bearish rejection and opportunity for downside positioning. The market structure remains neutral to bullish until that liquidity is tagged.
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ENA — Range Deviation & Reclaim: LTF Long Setup
ENA traded in a tight LTF range, then deviated below support, forming a sweep/liquidity grab.
Price quickly reclaimed the range low and retested the FVG (Fair Value Gap) below the range.
This reclaim/flip is a classic bullish reversal setup after a sweep.
Entry on the retest of FVG and previous support, targeting a move back to mid-range and then range highs.
Invalidation below the deviation low (stop).
Price action shows a textbook range deviation and reclaim setup. ENA swept liquidity below the range, trapped shorts, and reclaimed support, forming a bullish reversal signal. The retest of the FVG provided a high-probability entry for a move back to the range highs. This play relies on the principle that deviation and reclaim below a range often leads to a reversal as trapped sellers are forced to cover.
BITCOIN current and past FAIR VALUE GAPS -Watch for the future ?An explanation of what a FAIR VALUE GAP ( FVG) is at the end of this post.
The stand out for me here is simply how almost EVERY Fair Value Gap ( FVG) gets filled in every cycle. There are very few FVG from the 2017 to 2021 ctcle and only one from 2013 to 2017.
The question I now pose to myself is what will happen this time ? Because things are very different.
The potential for a return to the 50K area is Very real should we go back into a BEAR.
But to enter a Bear, we need the corporations to sell up..
Will they ?
We have to wait and see
Fair Value Gap
A fair value gap (FVG) is a price range on a chart where an imbalance exists between buyers and sellers, often resulting from sudden and strong price movements that leave a void where little or no trading took place.
These gaps occur when there is a significant difference between buy and sell orders, indicating an imbalance that can influence market prices.
Traders use FVGs to identify market imbalances and inefficiencies, which can present potential trading opportunities.
Definition: A fair value gap is a price range on a chart where an imbalance exists between buyers and sellers, often resulting from sudden and strong price movements that leave a void where little or no trading took place.
Formation: FVGs occur when buying or selling pressure leads to significant price movements, leaving behind gaps on price charts. These gaps can be identified through technical analysis involving the analysis of candlestick patterns and price chart patterns.
Types: Traders can categorize FVGs into two types: Undervalued FVGs, where prices are lower than fair value, and Overrated FVGs, where prices are higher.
Identification: FVGs are typically identified through a three-candle pattern on a price chart. The first and third candles serve as barriers, while the middle candle is the largest, creating a gap between the wicks of the first and third candles.
Trading Strategy: The fair value gap trading strategy involves identifying price gaps, waiting for the price to return to the gap, and executing trades based on the expectation that the price will resume its original trend. This approach requires a disciplined risk management plan.
EURUSD - Parallel channel in play!The following chart offers a closer look at the current structure of the EUR/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe. Price action has been respecting a well-defined bearish parallel channel, which has provided clear boundaries for both resistance and support. Based on the ongoing reaction to these levels, we outline both bullish and bearish scenarios that could unfold in the coming sessions.
Bearish Parallel Channel
Since June 30, EUR/USD has been consistently moving within a downward-sloping bearish parallel channel. Each attempt to break above the upper boundary of the channel has been rejected, while the lower boundary continues to act as dynamic support. This sustained rejection from the upper trendline confirms the strength of the bearish momentum currently at play. The pair remains structurally weak unless a clean breakout to the upside occurs, accompanied by strong bullish confirmation.
Bullish Scenario
A potential bullish reversal could materialize if EUR/USD manages to hold above the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located between 1.1620 and 1.1600. This zone may provide the necessary support for the bulls to step in. If the price maintains strength within or just above this FVG and buyers begin to show dominance, a rebound toward the upper boundary of the channel could occur. A successful breakout above the channel could then trigger a stronger rally, possibly targeting the 1.1750–1.1800 region, marking a clear shift in short-term momentum.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, if the pair fails to hold the 4-hour FVG between 1.1620 and 1.1600 and closes a strong bearish 4-hour candle below this zone, the market may be setting up for further downside. This would suggest a rejection of the FVG as resistance and open the path for a drop toward the lower end of the channel. Interestingly, this area also aligns with a previously established larger 4-hour FVG. A move into this deeper FVG could present a more favorable zone for a longer-term bullish reversal, as it offers a stronger liquidity pool and potential demand area.
Final Thoughts
The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture. Price is hovering near a key support zone within a bearish channel that has defined its movement for several weeks. Whether bulls can hold this support and break above the channel, or bears take control and push it lower toward the broader 4-hour FVG, will determine the next major directional move. Traders should closely monitor price action around the 1.1620–1.1600 level for clues on the likely breakout direction.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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BNB LongI see a buy zone around 735 just after a significant FVG, and moreover, given the overall bullish strength of BNB, the pullback to happen next won't be a deep pullback but rather a light one. Confirming with the Fib retracement tool that zone sits well at the 38% pull back level, which is a good sign of a light bull back to continue the bullish move






















