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British GDP slows to 0%, pound edges lowerThe British pound is slightly lower on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3541, down 0.22% on the day. UK GDP slowed in July, posting zero growth month-to month. This was down from the 0.4% gain in June and matched the market estimate. Services and construction were higher but were offset by a decrease in manufacturing. In the three months to July, GDP eased to 0.2%, down from 0.3% and below the market estimate of 0.2%. The UK economy has been losing steam - after a strong gain of 0.7% in the first quarter, GDP eased to 0.3% in Q2 and all signs point to negative growth in the second half of 2025. The weakening economy supports the case for the Bank of England to lower rates, but rising inflation is making it harder for the BoE to ease policy. In July, consumer inflation rose to 3.8%, higher than expected. The BoE has projected that inflation will rise to a peak of 4% in September, double the BoE's target of 2%. The BoE meets on September 18 and is expected to hold rates, after cutting rates in August to 4.0%. At that meeting, the nine-member monetary policy committee voted 5-4 to lower rates. Governor Bailey has said that the BoE will take a "gradual and careful" approach to rate cuts. The November 6 meeting will be very significant, coming just ahead of the government's budget. There was a lot of attention paid to Thursday's US CPI report, as inflation rose to 2.9% y/y, up from 2.7% and in line with expectations. Overshadowed by the CPI release was unemployment claims which jumped to 267 thousand in the first week of September, up sharply from 236 thousand in the prior release and well above the market estimate of 235 thousand. This was the highest number of claims since October 2021 and is another sign of a deteriorating labour market. GBPUSD has pushed below support at 1.3563 and is testing support at 1.3543. Below, there is support at 1.3524 There is resistance at 1.3582 and 1.3602
by OANDA
Australian confidence data slips, Aussie rally continuesThe Australian dollar continues to propel higher. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6618, up 0.40% on the day. The Aussie has shot up 1.5% since Thursday and is trading at six-week highs. Australia's consumer and business confidence have taken a hit, pointing to pessimism over the economic outlook. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% m/m in September, after a strong 5.7% gain in August. Westpac said that the index is back in "cautiously pessimistic" territory. Consumers remain uneasy over high interest rates, as the Reserve Bank has been slow to lower rates. The Westpac survey found that consumers are more concerned about unemployment and less likely to purchase a major household item. The NAB Business Confidence Index also headed lower, falling in August to 4 points, down from 8 in July. This marked a three-month low. Still, business conditions showed improvement and forward orders moved higher. The Reserve Bank of Australia is coming off a quarter-point rate cut and meets next on September 30. The money markets don't expect a cut in September, as GDP rose in Q2 to 1.8% from 1.4% and core inflation jumped to 2.7% in July, up from 2.1%. A stronger economy and higher inflation will make it more difficult for the RBA to lower rates. We could see a rate cut in November and further easing early in the new year. Much will depend on the direction of inflation, the strength of the labor market, and the health of the Chinese economy. In the US, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a rate hike next week for the first time since December 2024. The weak nonfarm payrolls report has raised the likelihood of a half-point cut to 12%, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 88%, according to CME's FedWatch.
by OANDA
Japan's GDP sparkles, yen pushes higherThe Japanese yen is in positive territory on Monday. In the European sesssion, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, down 0.35% on the day. The week has started on a positive note in Japan, as GDP for the second quarter was revised sharply higher to 2.2% y/y, up from the initial reading of 1.0% and above the Q1 gain of 0.3%. This was the fastest pace of growth since Q3 2024, as private consumption was higher, in part due to government subsidies for rice and energy. Exports were higher as firms rushed to ship to the US before the blanket 15% tariffs kicked in. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 0.5%, up from the initial reading of 0.3%. The increase in exports could be short-lived, as the US tariffs are making Japanese exports more expensive. Tariffs concerns could delay the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, and third-quarter GDP will help gauge the effect of the tariffs on Japan's economy. The political uncertainty in Japan is another factor which supports the BoJ staying on the sidelines. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has resigned after a disastrous election in which Ishiba's coalition lost its majority in the lower house of parliament. It remains unclear who will replace Ishiba, with a leadership vote expected in October. US nonfarm payrolls disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021. The money markets responded to the weak nonfarm payrolls report by fully pricing in a rate cut at next week's meeting, with a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut and a 10% chance of a half-point cut, according to CME's FedWatch. Prior to the jobs release, there was a 0% chance of a half-point cut. USD/JPY is testing support at 147.60. Next, there is support at 146.62 There is resistance at 148.37 and 149.35
by OANDA
Euro gains ground, US GDP revised higher, German CPI nextThe euro has posted gains on Thursday. In the North America session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1670, up 0.27% on the day. US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell.US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell. The US labor market has been softening and the July nonfarm payrolls fell to just 73 thousand. Still, unemployment claims have been steady and today's release showed that claims dropped to 229 thousand, down from a revised 234 thousand last week and just below the market estimate of 230 thousand. Germany releases CPI report on Friday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for August. This would mark the second flat reading in three months, an indication that inflation is under control. Annually, CPI is expected to nudge up to 2.1% from 2.0%. Eurozone inflation will be released next week. Headline CPI is currently at 2.0% and core CPI is at 2.3%, with little change expected in the August release. The European Central Bank took a pause in July after seven straight rate cuts. The ECB meets on September 11 and with inflation largely contained and around the ECB's 2% target, the Bank is not feeling pressure to continue lowering rates.
by OANDA
GBPUSD at make or break level ahead of a split BOEThe BOE faces a pivotal moment as it prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision. With MPC members split between hawkish concerns about stubborn inflation and dovish worries over a weakening job market, expectations are swirling about the path forward. Will the BOE signal a pause after this cut, or will inflation surprises force a more cautious, hawkish stance going into the end of the year? Traders are watching for clues in the updated forecasts, as even a minor shift could spark major volatility in GBP/USD. If the BOE sounds hawkish—maybe they raise their inflation forecasts, or the vote split shows strong resistance to further cuts, or they signal a pause in easing—then GBPUSD might have found a bottom for now. On the flip side, if the BOE puts more emphasis on economic risks, reduces its GDP outlook, or if the vote split shows a strong push for even bigger cuts, then the pound could come under pressure. On the charts, Cable is clinging to 1.3375, with a potential developing head and shoulders pattern threatening a deeper move lower if the neckline breaks. Will the upcoming BOE decision be the make-or-break catalyst for the pound? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
July 30 2025 USDJPY Buy Limit ActivatedGood day, folks! Another trade today! This is a continuation trade before the USD fundamental news. I've got some useful schematics on my chart for trading continuation momentum patterns with positive confluence in your fundamentals. You can see a swing structure BOS with validity of an internal structure: another BOS. I waited for the price to tap again into that valid order block, which also had validity of internal structure - BOS. The risk-reward (RR) is 1:4. Check the chart for detailed annotations. I hope you find value in this trade today. Until next time! #proptrader #wyckoff #supplyanddemand #riskmanagement
Long
by glyrad
Interesting few days ahead... USD pairs approaching key levelsDXY is finishing a HTF consolidation and is approaching medium-term key areas. Other USD pairs are also in areas where they could aggressively turn around. EURUSD just finished a H4 3-touch continuation flag and is starting to stall on the 3rd touch, suggesting indecision in the markets. Considering the news events in the next 3 days, starting today with USD advanced GDP data, we could see volatility kicking in on these key levels. We do need a catalyst to push price into a larger directional move, and we are prime positioned for the next leg. Technically, a breakout in both directions would make sense in these areas. Time to set alarms and be vigilant but not jump into trades too early, considering NFP on Friday as well. *** **** **** 📈 Simplified Trading Rules: > Follow a Valid Sequence > Wait for Continuation > Confirm Entry (valid candlestick pattern) > Know When to Exit (SL placement) Remember, technical analysis is subjective; develop your own approach. I use this format primarily to hold myself accountable and to share my personal market views. The pairs I publish here are usually discussed in detail in my Weekly Forex Forecast (WFF) and are now showing further developments worth mentioning. ⚠ Ensure you have your own risk management in place and always stick to your trading plan. *** **** ****
TVC:DXYShort
by kalganid
Will China's strong growth and ongoing stimulus lift the HK50? Despite US-China trade tensions and weak domestic demand, China’s GDP growth has surpassed its 5% target for the first half of the year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Q2 GDP grew 5.2% YoY, with authorities noting that stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption had some effect. Reflecting this momentum, Morgan Stanley raised its 2024 China growth forecast from 4.2% to 4.5%, while Deutsche Bank revised its outlook to 4.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase. HK50 maintained its steady uptrend, marking a new 4-month high. Both EMAs widen the gap, indicating the potential continuation of bullish momentum. If HK50 breaches above the recent high at 24600, the index could gain upward momentum toward the next resistance at 24900. Conversely, if HK50 breaks below the support at 24100, the index may retreat to 23730.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50
by inkicho_exness
New Zealand GDP expected to contract, New Zealand dollar recoverThe New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6042, up 0.45% on the day. The New Zealand dollar sustained sharp losses a day earlier, declining 0.75%. The New Zealand economy is in recession and the markets are bracing for a contraction in first-quarter GDP of 0.8%. The economy declined in Q4 2024 by 1.1%. A weak GDP report would put pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to reduce interest rates at the next meeting on July 9. The Reserve Bank has been aggressive and lowered rates for a sixth straight time in May to 3.25%, for a total of 225 basis points. Is the resilient US consumer showing cracks? US retail sales slumped in May, falling 0.9% m/m. This was well below the revised -0.1% reading in April and worse than the market estimate of -0.7%. Annually, retail sales fell to 3.3%, down sharply from a revised 5.0%. The monthly retail sales is particularly concerning because it marked a second straight decline. The pre-tariff spike in consumer spending has fizzled as the tariffs have taken effect. Consumers are wary that the tariffs will boost inflation and dampen consumer spending power and concerns about hiring have risen, prompting consumers to batten down the hatches in anticipation of tougher times ahead. If additional key US data heads lower, this will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The markets have priced in a hold at Wednesday's meeting at practically 100%, with little chance of a rate cut before September. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6035. Above, there is resistance at 0.6060 0.5990 and 0.5965 and providing support
by OANDA
US & Global Market Breakdown | Profits, Losses & Bearish TradesIn this video, I break down the current state of the US and global economy, and why I believe we’re heading into a bearish phase. 📉 Fundamentals: I cover the key macroeconomic factors influencing the markets — including Trump’s proposed new tariffs, slowing GDP growth, and ongoing supply chain constraints. These all point toward increasing pressure on the global economy. 📊 Technical Analysis: I go over the major indexes and highlight their recent behavior. We’ve seen reactions from resistance levels, contraction patterns forming, and a significant volume dry-up — followed by today’s spike in volume, which occurred right at resistance. These are potential signs that the market may be shifting toward a bearish trend. That said, we could still just be witnessing a deeper pullback within a longer-term uptrend. Markets are unpredictable, and no one knows for sure — which is why it’s important to always do your due diligence. 💰 I also review the profits and losses I’ve taken on recent bullish trades, and why I’ve now positioned myself in select short opportunities based on what I’m seeing. If I’m sharing this, it’s because I’m personally investing my capital based on my conviction — so always use your own judgment and risk management when making decisions. If you found value in the breakdown, leave a like, comment, and subscribe for more timely updates.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by GonzooTrading
Are you shorting the bounce or waiting for confirmation?Japan’s Q1 GDP came in worse than expected: -0.2% QoQ (-0.7% annualized). Weak consumption, soft exports, and a fading external boost despite a weak yen isn't a great combo for Asia’s largest export economy. The Nikkei 225 reacted immediately, and the H4 chart is starting to reflect deeper structural pressure. 🔍 Technical Outlook: - Price reversed from the high of 38,745. - Price is testing the 50 SMA and could enter the Ichimoku cloud. - The cloud is signalling a twist, which could be a sign of momentum fading and the trend weakening or reversing. 📊 Projection: If the price closes below the 50 SMA and breaks through the cloud, further downside could be expected, with the target levels at - 36,800 (last consolidation zone), and - 35,570 (38.2% fibonacci retracement level and 200 SMA). Alternatively, if the bulls defend the cloud, we could see the price climb to the resistance level of 40,500 This is a classic macro meets technicals moment. A weak data print is lining up against the possibility of a technical rollover.
SPREADEX:NIKKEIShort
by JinDao_Tai
Yen slides as BoJ cuts growth forecastThe Japanese yen continues to lose ground and is sharply lower on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.36, up 0.92% on the day. Earlier, the yen weakened to 144.74, its weakest level since April 10. There were no surprises from the Bank of Japan, which maintained its key interest rate at 0.5% in a unanimous vote. The BoJ has signaled that it plans to continue hiking rates and normalize policy, but the turmoil caused by US President Trump's tariff policy may delay the next rate increase until after the summer. The BoJ board cut its growth and inflation forecasts in its quarterly outlook report. The growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 was slashed to 0.5% from 1.1% in January and inflation is not expected to remain sustainable at 2% until the second half of 2026, a year later than in the January forecast. The forecast noted that US tariffs would dampen Japan's economy by weighing on global trade and consumer and businesses confidence would be impacted due to the "heightened uncertainties" over the tariffs. The markets expected a soft US GDP release for Q1 but the 0.3% q/q decline was well below the market estimate of 0.2%. This followed a strong 2.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2024. The surprise decline was driven by Trump's tariffs, as imports surged ahead of the tariffs taking effect and consumer spending declined. The weak GDP figure raised the probability of further rate cuts and the markets are looking for up to four rate cuts before the end of the year. The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode, with little chance of a cut in May, but further economic deterioration could force the Fed to cut in June.
by OANDA
German inflation higher than expected, Euro dipsThe euro is calm on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1334, down 0.45% on the day. Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.1% y/y in April, down from 2.2% in March but above the market estimate of 2.0%. This was the lowest level in seven months, largely driven by lower energy prices. The more significant story was that core CPI, which excludes energy and food and is a more reliable indicator of inflation trends, rose to 2.9% from 2.6%. This will be of concern to policymakers at the European Central Bank, as will the increase in services inflation. The ECB has to balance the new environment of US tariffs and counter-tariffs against the US, which will raise inflation, along with the strong rise in the euro and fiscal stimulus which will boost upward inflationary pressures. The ECB will be keeping a close look at Friday's eurozone inflation report, which is expected to follow the German numbers. Headline CPI is projected to drop to 2.1% from 2.2%, while the core rate is expected to rise to 2.5% from 2.4%. The central bank would prefer to continue delivering gradual rate cuts in order to boost anemic growth, but this will be contingent on inflation remaining contained. The markets were braced for soft US numbers but the data was worse than expected. ADP employment change declined to 62 thousand, down from a revised 147 thousand and below the market estimate of 115 thousand. This was followed by first-estimate GDP for Q1, which declined by 0.3% q/q, down sharply from 2.4% in Q4 and lower than the market estimate of 0.3%. This marked the first quarterly decline in the economy since Q1 2022. The weak GDP reading was driven by a surge in imports ahead of US tariffs taking effect and a drop in consumer spending. EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.1362 and is testing support at 1.1338. Below, there is support at 1.1306 There is resistance at 1.1394 and 1.1418
by OANDA
German inflation higher than expected, Euro dipsThe euro is calm on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1334, down 0.45% on the day. Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.1% y/y in April, down from 2.2% in March but above the market estimate of 2.0%. This was the lowest level in seven months, largely driven by lower energy prices. The more significant story was that core CPI, which excludes energy and food and is a more reliable indicator of inflation trends, rose to 2.9% from 2.6%. This will be of concern to policymakers at the European Central Bank, as will the increase in services inflation. The ECB has to balance the new environment of US tariffs and counter-tariffs against the US, which will raise inflation, along with the strong rise in the euro and fiscal stimulus which will boost upward inflationary pressures. The ECB will be keeping a close look at Friday's eurozone inflation report, which is expected to follow the German numbers. Headline CPI is projected to drop to 2.1% from 2.2%, while the core rate is expected to rise to 2.5% from 2.4%. The central bank would prefer to continue delivering gradual rate cuts in order to boost anemic growth, but this will be contingent on inflation remaining contained. The markets were braced for soft US numbers but the data was worse than expected. ADP employment change declined to 62 thousand, down from a revised 147 thousand and below the market estimate of 115 thousand. This was followed by first-estimate GDP for Q1, which declined by 0.3% q/q, down sharply from 2.4% in Q4 and lower than the market estimate of 0.3%. This marked the first quarterly decline in the economy since Q1 2022. The weak GDP reading was driven by a surge in imports ahead of US tariffs taking effect and a drop in consumer spending.
by OANDA
$USGDPQQ -U.S Economy Unexpectedly Contracts in Q1/2025ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ Q1/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -U.S economy shrank 0.3% in Q1 2025, the first contraction since Q1 2022, versus 2.4% growth in Q4 and expectations of 0.3% expansion, as rising trade tensions weighed on the economy. Net exports cut nearly 5 percentage points from GDP as imports jumped over 40%. Consumer spending rose just 1.8%, the weakest since mid-2023, while federal government outlays fell 5.1%, the most since Q1 2022.
ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
Australian core CPI falls within the RBA target, Aussie shrugsThe Australian dollar has been showing strong movement this week but is calm on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6391, up 0.14% on the day. Australia released the CPI report for the first quarter. The Australian dollar didn't show much reaction, but the data could point to another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Headline CPI remained unchanged at 2.4% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.3%. The significant news was that RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, the key core inflation indicator, dropped to 2.9% y/y from a revised 3.3% gain in Q4 2024. This is the first time in three years that core CPI is back within the RBA's target band of between 1-3%. The drop in core inflation is good news for the government, with the national election on Saturday. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers jumped on the news, stating that the market expects four or five rate additional rate cuts this year, which would save households with mortgages "hundreds of dollars". The Reserve Bank is expected to lower rates at its next meeting on May 20, which would mark only the second rate cut this year. After cutting rates in February, the central bank has stayed on the sidelines as US President Trump's tariffs have escalated trade tensions and sent the financial markets on a roller-coaster ride. In the US, the markets are bracing for some weak data later today. ADP employment is expected to slip to 108 thousand, compared to 155 thousand in the previous release. ADP is not considered a reliable gauge for Friday's nonfarm payrolls, but a weak reading will only increase the anxiety of the nervous markets. US first-estimate GDP for Q1 is expected to slide to just 0.4% q/q, after a 2.4% gain in Q3. If there is a surprise reading from GDP, we could see a strong reaction from the US dollar after the release. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6403. Above, there is resistance at 0.6431 0.6357 and 0.6329 are the next support levels
by OANDA