GDX
GDX... still in bear modeGDX... no change in trajectory - bearish.
Previously, called and exited near the top in August 2020 and expected this bearish tones.
Noted BRB Buy Signal triggered as well as the RPM attemping to turn bullish.
Otherwise, MACD is clearly heading down and GDX gapped down to break two support levels in one candle.
More downside seen, at least to 30. possible maximum stretch to 26.
TOPPING PATTERNS: SPX and the SPY/GDX ratioThese ratios are KEY to understanding the valuation of the marketplace, SPY/GDX being just one of many.
Either equities are going to fall, or mining stocks are about to explode. The latter is in my view, exceptionally unlikely, as we see bearish price action in gold across many of the major G20 currencies.
IF there is anything that a gold investor should recognize, it's deflationary environments.
SO then, what comes next? An important question:
Why is it that other asset classes are moving in the reflation trade, but the asset amongst the most sensitive to this environment, is lagging behind the leading commodities?
The answer: LIQUIDATION RISK
The argument that there are other assets that provide interest or dividends that make them more attractive, or provide some sense of opportunity cost, is a straw man argument. Many of the mining stocks provide dividends at a greater return than that of treasury yields, albeit not as high as those in oil or financials. The concern is that the mining sector has crumbled beyond these opportunity costs in terms of their relative valuations with respect to their competing assets.
US Oil and Energy prices , which as of now have been artificially bid up with temporary demand from the Texas grid shutdowns, are among the few things keeping the reflation trade intact. Bond yields and financials are directly correlated to this broadened move in oil. Once the temporary demand retracts from the marketplace, I expect to see a massive deflationary environment come into the market. IF oil reverses, expect to see bond yields and financials to reverse and bleed into other asset classes across the market.
Additionally, with the GBP seeing artificial appreciation from the news related to the easiness of BoE's negative interest, the DXY has weakened slightly. This will not last once UST/USB yields breakdown.
The market now faces a SEVERAL KEY hurdles in the near term:
Maintaining oil prices
Maintaining yields
Maintaining equity prices
Maintaining a slightly weak or sideways Dollar
These are the stages where money get's trapped and the demanded liquidity becomes unobtainable. Best of luck.
SPY/GDX Ratio and it's related top call on the S&P 500Asset classes push and pull against one another. We have seen the GDX break it's trading range with the fall below neckline of it's head and shoulders position. It is telegraphing further breakdowns across asset markets.
GOLD -Inverse to BTC Bullrun - Cup & Handle BreakoutGOLD -Inverse to BTC Bullrun - Cup & Handle Breakout w/ BTC Scale Out/GOLD Scale In Target Areas
BUYZONE = 1700 - 1650
OR
Break Up & Out of Handle
OR
BTC Hits Resistance at Middle of Current Uptrend (img attached)
AND
As BTC Approaches Top of Current Uptrend (img attached)
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This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
OPENING (IRA): GDX FEBRUARY 19TH 33 SHORT PUT... for a .42/contract credit.
Notes: I have a smidge of SLV and GLD on, but didn't want to add to my GLD due to its crappy 30-day, and SLV drives me nuts somewhat with its lack of strike to strike granularity, so hitting the miners with a small position with a 30-day at 43.9% and its expiry-specific at 42.7%. 1.29% ROC at max; 10.5% annualized.
Seasonal $XPTUSD Platinum LongIt is time to start considering a major platinum trade in either spot or $PPLT equivalent. The measured move target of $1300 is shown and I believe we can get there by March 1 2021.
Buy $NEM on rare alertNewmont mining may have just published a false breakout (FBO) beneath the recent wedge formed and the 50 Week MA. We received a rare block alert ahead of the final seasonality run into late February.
Dollar about to reverse on confluenceDollar needs a breather. Coming to .5 fib retracement, 100DMA and bottom of previous liquidity zone
GDX Next 37.58, 39.2GDX next potentail resistance 37.58 & 39.2. Its signal line is nearing to cross MACD line.
GDX - Miners are Ready to Rock and RollGDX - Miners are Ready to Rock and Roll
Keeping this short and simple
Daily/Weekly Set-up
Entry on Pre-market Gap-up or 32.25 double bottom if we drop (which i doubt)
1st Target = 38
2nd Target = 42
Hodl target = 45+
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
GDX- Miners Reaching Lower?A break of the inclining support originating from Jan 2016 may trigger some selling pressure as it would complete a Head and Shoulders pattern. This may be an inverse expression to the IHS forming on the DXY. I'm about 70/30 convinced of this right now. The attached link makes a strong dollar case.
The average distance from head to neck results in a projected 24$ target, with the very base support above 22. If this played out similar to other sell-offs, we could expect the downward pressure to reach 24+ and ease before turning between Feb 1st and Apr 19th. This could be an algo/leverage driven flash sale so we might expect equal violence to the upside later in the summer/fall. (15% chance?)
What is more probably more likely is that the chart will bounce in the 28 range before deciding to follow-through to 24 or, consolidate and ultimately resume an up-trend. (85% chance)
Whether this coincides with a broader market decline remains to be seen, though my suspicions tell me that this week (Jan 25th-30th) will be very telling.
Gold (AUD) - Bullish bounce within Ascending Wedge.Gold (AUD) - Bullish bounce within Ascending Wedge.
Bullish Divergent RSI
GDX's downtrend continues. Perspectives and thoughtsGDX's downtrend has cast a shadow over gold's price and last week we saw a determined continuation of the downtrend for the Vaneck ETF. The ETF's price broke through the support with an average volume of 26.52M for Friday's trading session and buyers made no attempt to by the dip. We've closed with full-body under the support and below the $36 level. In the days before the drop on Friday, we saw some increase in volumes as some selling started to accumulate. RSI remains below the 50 ballast line and MACD has made a bearish crossover. The histogram is below 0.
The perspectives for the ETF remain negative with the overall sentiment leaning towards sell and strong sell. My target for the ETF is $31.35 - $31.25 zone. The rise in bond prices keeps Gold and the corresponding ETF's unattractive at this point.
GDX continues its original path - DOWN to 30GDX... one of my favouorites, but now is in a major retracement.
Again, three out of four factors are not favourable:
1. USD rising
2. Gold bearish
3. Equities Bearish (or soon to be)
Only Low Interest Rates are favourable.
The weekly chart has a GAP DOWN (ignore the BRB Buy signal for now), and it closed below the weekly 55EMA, which is a significant development.
MACD is crossing down soon in bear territory, and the RPM is pushing down again!
Shifted downside target to 30, mid Feb 2021.
GDX: f/u still looks positive to me. Since the last posting there was one more drop of the to close one of those "nasty" gaps that Mr.(or Ms) Chart seems to hate to leave open. Would not be surprised to see rise from here. Process your way. For target see previous post with link below . Take care.
Has GOLD Caught My Attention? Breakout on the HorizonGold Weekly uptrend is in a current consolidation cycle, hence the up and down movement on the Daily chart with no clear direction as of yet. As we zoom in intraday for multiple time frame analysis, you will see the 2 hour chart(left side) has found support at $1836 and the bands are constricting around the price action. Now with every great consolidation cycle, comes great volatility as we know one thing is true "Volatility is cyclical". So with a bottom in and intraday charts aligning, this intraday breakout IF strong enough, could set the Daily chart up for a strong enough break out, to pour over into the weekly charts to continue the uptrend and breakout of the Weekly chart consolidation Cycle. Gold is on watch, has the potential to move like bitcoin, once the market takes it last breath, this would be a good bottom to establish one self IF it holds. $1900 is the key level to break and hold...All aboard? TVC:GOLD
Dollar monthly still bearish... lots of room to drop. Short hereDollar monthly still bearish... lots of room to drop. Short here. Chart self explanatory,.
Mark it... I was short from 94 and adding new short here as well around 90
