Get started

Gold

Wait for new highs and go long on pullbacksA good day starts with profits, now let's analyze the trend of gold today.📊 Gold is currently consolidating around 3650, with 3655-3665 forming short-term resistance above. The 4H MACD indicator is correcting a top divergence. Having first touched this resistance level in the European session, gold may experience a pullback. 📉As the price of gold continues to rise, the short-term support also moves up. Pay attention to the short-term support area formed by 3640-3630. 🌈If gold retraces support and then rebounds above this resistance level, it could first reach 3675, or even reach a new high of 3690-3700, as we anticipated yesterday.🚀 Intraday operations are mainly long at low levels, supplemented by short at high levels, and participate in trading in key ranges.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP-Halson
Gold "Bull Flag" developing supported at 3608The Gold remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a continuation pause within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 3608 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 3608 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 3677 – initial resistance 3705 – psychological and structural level 3740 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 3608 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 3577 – minor support 3540 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the Gold holds above 3608. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by TradeNation
XAUUSD Gold Intraday Move 12.09.2025Intraday Analysis The market has recently broken out of a descending trendline, showing signs of bullish momentum. After the breakout, price retraced toward previous supply turned demand zones, creating potential buying opportunities at key levels. Key Observations: Trendline Breakout: The downward trendline has been broken, indicating a possible shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. Retests of the broken structure often provide high-probability entries. Demand Zones: Zone 1 (3630–3633): This level aligns with a prior consolidation area and trendline retest. A bounce here could trigger continuation toward higher resistance. Zone 2 (3612–3616): This is a deeper support zone and serves as a secondary buying opportunity if the first level fails. Targets and Risk Management: For Zone 1, the upside target is 3657 with a protective stop below 3622. For Zone 2, the upside target is 3640 with a stop below 3606. Both setups provide a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Confirmation Requirement: Entries should only be considered once at least two confirmations are present. Possible confirmations include: Bullish candlestick patterns (engulfing, pin bar, or strong rejection wicks). Break of minor intraday structure to the upside. Volume spike or momentum divergence supporting the bullish bias. Conclusion: The bias remains bullish while above 3612. The first area of interest is 3630–3633 for a potential long entry toward 3657. If price dips deeper, the 3612–3616 zone provides the next opportunity for a bounce targeting 3640. Proper confirmation is essential before committing to trades, and stops should be respected to manage risk effectively.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by QuinnReed_Charts
DeGRAM | GOLD in the descending channel📊 Technical Analysis ● XAU/USD is trading inside a descending channel, with repeated rejections at 3,654–3,646 resistance confirming bearish control. ● Price is rotating lower toward 3,636 support, with the projection suggesting an extension to 3,621 if sellers sustain momentum. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Gold is pressured by firmer US yields and cautious risk sentiment ahead of CPI, while easing safe-haven flows limit upside bids. ✨ Summary Bearish below 3,646; targets 3,636 → 3,621. Invalidation on a close above 3,654. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
3
Gold (XAUUSD) Intraday Technical Analysis – September 12, 2025Gold is currently trading around 3,643 USD/oz, after bouncing from a short-term descending channel. However, price is now testing a key resistance zone at 3,650 – 3,668 USD, where selling pressure could return. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 3,650 – 3,668 USD (previous highs + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Support: 3,585 – 3,600 USD (previous low + EMA confluence). Technical Outlook On the H1 timeframe, price retested the descending trendline after a channel breakout. RSI is flattening near the overbought zone, signaling weakening bullish momentum. EMA is turning sideways, confirming indecision at this level. Trading Strategy Primary Scenario (Short from Resistance): Entry: 3,646 – 3,650 USD Stop-loss: above 3,668 USD Take-profit: 3,600 – 3,590 USD Alternative Scenario (Long on Breakout): If price breaks and closes above 3,670 USD, bullish momentum could extend toward 3,700 – 3,715 USD. Conclusion Gold is facing strong resistance, making a short-term pullback the favored setup. Watch how price reacts around 3,650 – 3,668 USD for trade confirmation. Follow for more daily gold strategies and remember to save this analysis if you find it useful.
FX:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
3
DeGRAM | GOLD will retest the support📊 Technical Analysis ● XAU/USD is consolidating within a descending channel, repeatedly rejecting the resistance line while defending support near 3,621. ● The structure suggests a short-term rebound attempt, with targets at 3,628 and 3,636 if buyers hold above the support line. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Gold is finding buyers as traders position cautiously ahead of the US CPI release, while subdued dollar strength and geopolitical risks maintain safe-haven interest. ✨ Summary Bullish above 3,621; targets 3,628 → 3,636. Invalidation on a close below 3,621. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
3
GOLD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 3,651.90. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 3,609.43 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by SignalProvider
1
GOLD POWERS HIGHERThe U.S. dollar has been absorbing heavy flows for weeks, yet gold keeps ripping higher for the fourth straight week—a rare split that tells its own story. Softening U.S. Data – CPI and retail sales came in lighter, pushing Fed cut expectations higher and weighing on real yields. Central-Bank Buying – Emerging-market reserve managers continue record gold purchases for diversification. Safe-Haven Demand – Energy market jitters and ongoing geopolitical tension keep institutional bids under the metal. Dollar Liquidity Games – Despite dollar absorption, funding markets remain loose enough to support alternative stores of value. Gold shows no sign of daily-chart weakness. It’s a “buy mode” Market makers continue to press higher; every small-timeframe dip finds buyers. My approach: trail stops behind each daily low.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
XAUUSD – Gold Faces Strong ResistanceTechnical Outlook Main Trend: Gold has been rallying within an ascending channel since late August but recently broke out and is now consolidating below resistance. Key Resistance: 3,665 – 3,670 USD. Price has been rejected multiple times here, showing strong selling pressure. Key Support: 3,600 – 3,605 USD. A break below this zone may trigger further bearish omentum. EMA & RSI: Price is testing short-term EMAs while RSI shows bearish divergence – signaling potential downside pressure. Fibonacci Levels: The 3,600 zone aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the latest bullish leg, making it a critical pivot. Trading Strategies Bearish Scenario (Primary Setup) Look for Short opportunities if price fails at 3,665 – 3,670. Target 1: 3,630 Target 2: 3,600 Stop Loss: Above 3,675 Bullish Scenario (Alternative Setup) If price closes above 3,670 (H1/H4 with volume confirmation), bullish momentum could resume. Target: 3,700 – 3,720 Conclusion Gold is currently testing a major resistance area. A short-term correction toward 3,600 is likely before the next clear direction develops. Watch price action closely at 3,665 and 3,600 for confirmation of entry. - Follow for more intraday strategies and save this analysis if you find it useful.
FX:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
1
GOLD rebounds strongly, supported by US dataGold prices were volatile during the New York trading session on Thursday (September 11) due to the influence of the US CPI index and initial data on unemployment benefits applications. OANDA:XAUUSD price has recovered strongly during today's Asian session (September 12) and is currently trading at 3,647 USD/oz. Very weak initial U.S. jobless claims data eased concerns over inflation data. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week remains high, supporting gold prices and recouping most of the day’s losses. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose more than expected in August from the previous month, but the year-over-year increase was in line with expectations. The data showed that the CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, beating the 0.3% forecast by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. However, the 2.9% year-over-year increase was in line with expectations. Moreover, the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, both in line with Dow Jones' forecasts. Meanwhile, the US labor market is showing signs of slowing: weekly jobless claims unexpectedly jumped on Thursday after jobs growth data was revised down earlier this week. In the week ending September 6, initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, the highest since October 2021, far exceeding market expectations of 235,000. Initial data on unemployment claims 'saved' OANDA:XAUUSD Gold rallies after finding support at the 0.382% Fibonacci extension trendline note to readers in yesterday's issue. The rally has now just cleared the 0.50% Fibonacci level, which provides the initial conditions for a possible retest of the all-time high at the 0.618% Fibonacci level. The technical structure has not changed much with the uptrend dominating the market, from the uptrend channel as the main trend, the main support from EMA21 while RSI has not shown any signal for the possibility of a price decrease. Therefore, the technical chart summary is completely uptrend and the notable price points during the day will be listed as follows. Support: 3,613 - 3,600 USD Resistance: 3,645 - 3,677 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3682 - 3680⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3686 →Take Profit 1 3674 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3668 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3530 - 3532⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3526 →Take Profit 1 3538 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3544
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Gold: Cooling inflation, eyeing the 3.70x waveHello everyone, The macro backdrop is currently favourable for gold, with both China and the US reporting weaker-than-expected inflation data: China’s CPI came in at 0% m/m and -0.4% y/y, with PPI at -2.9% y/y; meanwhile, the US posted PPI at -0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y, and core PPI at 2.8% y/y. These softer figures have pushed yields and the USD lower, while strengthening expectations that the Fed may cut rates at its next meeting. Adding to this, the PBoC continued to purchase gold in August, reinforcing confidence in long-term reserve demand. On the H4 chart, the bullish structure remains intact: price is holding above the rising Ichimoku cloud, while FVG blocks below act as support. Gold is currently consolidating tightly in the 3.66–3.68 zone, with short-bodied candles suggesting sellers lack the momentum to break the trend. The nearest support levels to watch are 3.63–3.62, then 3.61–3.60, with deeper support at 3.585–3.575 along the cloud edge. My view leans bullish: I’m looking for a shallow pullback and an H4 close above 3.66–3.68 to open the way towards 3.70–3.715, potentially extending to 3.72 if momentum holds. Only a close below 3.60 on H4 would make me consider a deeper retracement into the 3.585–3.575 cloud zone. In short, softer inflation and consistent reserve buying are building a strong foundation for gold. What’s needed now is a firm close above 3.68 to confidently target the 3.70x region. What do you think – will gold break through 3.70x in this move, or does it need another balance around 3.60 first? Share your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EmmaChartist
5
Gold Setting Up for Weekly Low Sweep – Watching 3650sGold has stalled out at the highs this week and is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong 2-week bullish run. Thursday’s close left us hovering just above key support in the 3650s. For Friday, I’m watching for a break and close below yesterday’s low on the 1H chart. If we get that confirmation, I’ll be looking for continuation shorts targeting Monday’s low and potentially the 8HR FVG around 3600–3620 to close out the week. If bulls defend this level again, then the range may extend — but the cleaner move is down into untested imbalances below. This sets up Friday as a key day: ✅ Break yesterday’s low = downside liquidity run in play ❌ Hold support again = chop/range into next week
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
Gold at a Crossroad – 3645 Wall vs 3610 Base👋 Hello traders, Gold is trading now around 3636 after printing the ATH at 3674. Since then, price has been rejected twice from the 3645–3650 supply zone, forming clear lower highs and showing signs of distribution. 🔸 HTF Picture (D1–H4): Momentum is cooling, RSI is coming down from overbought, and EMAs are starting to lose their bullish slope. Structure is heavy under 3645, but the higher timeframe uptrend is still intact as long as 3610–3600 holds. 🔸 Key Levels: Resistance: 3645–3650 → strong supply, rejection zone. Support: 3610–3600 → structural base, must hold to avoid deeper correction. ⚡ Friday Context: We have red USD news (UoM sentiment + inflation expectations). On top of that, it’s Friday, and gold often plays dirty before weekly close – fake spikes, liquidity grabs, and manipulation are common. 🎯 The battlefield is clear: 3610 vs 3645. If bulls defend the base, we could see another push higher. If sellers keep control below the wall, more downside opens. 📊 What’s your play here? Buy the dip or fade the wall? 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments, hit the like button if this helps your trading, and don’t forget to follow GoldFxMinds for daily precision updates 🚀✨ ma refer la text, asta era textul
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Multi-Asset Execution Chart Analysis & TradesAnalysis Date : September 11, 2025 Trading Analyst : Institutional Intelligence Framework Methodology : Enhanced Dual Renko Chart System with Optimized Technical Indicators Executive Summary Execution chart analysis validates the exceptional institutional opportunities identified in our structure analysis. All three primary equity indices show perfect technical confirmation of institutional positioning with strong momentum indicators. Commodity and currency markets reveal significant technical conflicts requiring defensive positioning adjustments. Enhanced Indicator Configuration DMI/ADX Visual Standards : ADX (Green) : Trend strength indicator (>25 = strong trend) +DI (Blue) : Bullish directional movement -DI (Red) : Bearish directional movement Line Weight : 3pt for enhanced visibility Dual Stochastics Configuration : Tactical (5,3,3) : %K (Dark Blue), %D (Teal) - Short-term momentum Strategic (50,3,3) : %K (Black), %D (Red Circles) - Medium-term context Primary Opportunities - Technical Validation (75-85% Total Allocation) 1. DOW JONES (YM) - 30-35% ALLOCATION Classification : OPTIMAL RISK/REWARD - Superior Technical Confirmation YM Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bullish alignment confirmed (black above orange) ADX : 47.74 (highest trend strength among all indices) +DI/-DI Ratio : 2.69:1 bullish dominance Momentum Quality : Exceptional - strongest ADX with optimal positioning Stochastics : Tactical 98.86/84.24, Strategic 98.86/84.02 (peak momentum) Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (80% probability) : Entry : /MYM at current levels 46,050 (optimal positioning confirmed) Technical Edge : Strongest ADX + minimal extension risk Stop Loss : 45,000 (2.3% risk - best among indices) Target 1 : 47,000 (+2.1% - close 40% position) Target 2 : 48,000 (+4.2% - close 30% position) Trail Strategy : 150-point swing lows on remaining 30% Consolidation Scenario (15% probability) : Range : 45,500-46,500 around YTD POC consensus Strategy : Accumulate on any dips to 45,700 Advantage : Minimal downside to institutional support Risk Management : Optimal positioning within institutional zone Bearish Scenario (5% probability) : Trigger : Break below 45,000 (institutional consensus violation) Action : Reduce position by 50% Probability : Very low given YTD POC validation and technical strength Re-entry : Require fresh institutional accumulation evidence 2. NASDAQ 100 (NQ) - 25-30% ALLOCATION Classification : EXCEPTIONAL MOMENTUM - Exceptional Institutional Backing NQ Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Strong bullish alignment (black above orange) ADX : 44.91 (exceptional trend strength) +DI/-DI Ratio : 2.90:1 bullish dominance (highest among indices) Momentum Quality : Exceptional directional bias Stochastics : Tactical 88.27/80.21, Strategic 88.27/80.21 (strong sustainable) Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (75% probability) : Entry : /MNQ at current levels or pullback to 23,700-23,800 Technical Edge : Highest +DI/-DI ratio with institutional backing Stop Loss : 23,000 (4.3% risk) Target 1 : 25,000 (+4.3% - close 50% position) Target 2 : 25,500 (+6.1% - close 25% position) Trail Strategy : 100-point swing lows on remaining 25% Consolidation Scenario (20% probability) : Range : 23,500-24,500 above institutional accumulation Strategy : Scale into weakness, maintain core position Management : Use tactical stochastics for entry timing Support : 26.8:1 institutional backing provides confidence Bearish Scenario (5% probability) : Trigger : Break below 23,000 (Q3 POC violation) Action : Exit all positions immediately Reassessment : Wait for institutional re-accumulation Probability : Very low given exceptional institutional support 3. S&P 500 (ES) - 20-25% ALLOCATION Classification : SOLID CONFIRMATION - Strong Institutional Support ES Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bullish alignment maintained (black above orange) ADX : 41.32 (strong trend strength) +DI/-DI Ratio : 1.74:1 bullish dominance Momentum Quality : Solid institutional validation Stochastics : Tactical 34.44/93.30, Strategic 98.26/95.30 (extreme overbought) Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (70% probability) : Entry : /MES on any pullback to 6,450-6,500 Current Caution : Strategic stochastics extremely overbought Stop Loss : 6,300 (3.8% risk) Target 1 : 6,700 (+2.8% - close 50% position) Target 2 : 6,800 (+4.4% - close 25% position) Profit Management : Take profits on strength given overbought conditions Consolidation Scenario (25% probability) : Range : 6,400-6,600 around institutional levels Strategy : Wait for tactical stochastics to reset before adding Management : Reduce position size until momentum cools Context : Strategic overbought suggests pause needed Bearish Scenario (5% probability) : Trigger : Break below 6,300 (institutional support failure) Action : Systematic position reduction Management : Tight stops given overbought technical readings Re-entry : Wait for technical reset and institutional validation Secondary Opportunities - Mixed Technical Signals (10-15% Total Allocation) 4. WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) - 8-12% ALLOCATION Classification : INSTITUTIONAL CONFLICT - Defensive Positioning Required CL Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bullish alignment (black above orange) ADX : 42.19 (strong trend strength) +DI/-DI Ratio : BEARISH 2.44:1 (-DI 42.10 vs +DI 17.86) Critical Conflict : DEMA bullish vs DMI strongly bearish Stochastics : Tactical 9.26/27.64, Strategic 27.64/33.61 (oversold setup) Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (45% probability) : Entry Criteria : WAIT for +DI to cross above -DI for confirmation Current Action : Reduce position size due to momentum conflict Stop Loss : 61.50 (tight due to bearish momentum) Target : 65.50 if technical alignment achieved Risk Management : Maximum 1.5% account risk due to signal conflict Neutral Scenario (35% probability) : Range : 62.00-64.00 within institutional accumulation Strategy : Maintain minimal defensive position Monitoring : Daily +DI/-DI relationship for momentum shift Institutional Support : Strong Q2 accumulation provides floor Bearish Scenario (20% probability) : Trigger : Break below 61.00 (institutional support failure) Action : Complete position liquidation Reason : Bearish momentum confirming institutional breakdown Re-entry : 58.00 area (Q2 POC support) with technical confirmation High-Risk Positions - Technical Deterioration (0-8% Total Allocation) 5. NATURAL GAS (NG) - 3-5% ALLOCATION Classification : HIGH RISK - Institutional Disengagement Confirmed NG Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bearish alignment (black below orange) ADX : 42.79 (strong trend - bearish direction) +DI/-DI Ratio : EXTREME BEARISH 6.30:1 (-DI 53.25 vs +DI 8.45) Technical Reality : All major indicators bearishly aligned Stochastics : Tactical 0.00/6.70 (maximum oversold), Strategic 51.98/65.70 Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (20% probability) : Entry Criteria : AVOID - all technical signals bearish Required Confirmation : DEMA bullish cross + DMI reversal + institutional re-engagement Current Action : Complete avoidance recommended Speculative Only : Maximum 1% account risk if attempting reversal play Neutral Scenario (30% probability) : Range : 2.80-3.20 with declining institutional participation Strategy : Avoid new positions, monitor for institutional return Risk : 65% volume decline from Q1 peak activity Liquidity : /MNG insufficient volume (13,991) for meaningful sizing Bearish Scenario (50% probability) : Continuation : Further decline toward 2.50-2.70 historical lows Institutional Reality : Smart money disengagement pattern Technical Confirmation : 6.30:1 bearish momentum supports decline Strategy : Complete avoidance until institutional re-engagement 6. EURO FUTURES (6E) - 2-3% ALLOCATION Classification : DANGEROUS EXTENSION - Technical Breakdown Confirmed 6E Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bearish crossover (black below orange) ADX : 29.21 (moderate trend strength) +DI/-DI Ratio : BEARISH 1.19:1 (-DI 29.21 vs +DI 24.49) Extension Risk : 12.1% above YTD POC institutional consensus Stochastics : Tactical 23.24/66.57, Strategic 74.26/90.89 (extremely overbought) Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (15% probability) : Entry : AVOID - dangerous extension with technical breakdown Existing Positions : Immediate systematic profit-taking required Risk : Overextension + bearish technical = correction imminent Management : Emergency profit-taking protocols engaged Neutral Scenario (25% probability) : Range : 1.1650-1.1800 at dangerous extension levels Strategy : Avoid range trading given extension risk Risk Assessment : All signals point to mean reversion Professional Response : Defensive positioning only Bearish Scenario (60% probability) : Target : Return to YTD POC 1.0525 (-12.1% correction) Technical Trigger : DEMA bearish cross + momentum deterioration Strategy : Short opportunities on any strength above 1.1780 Entry : /M6E shorts with tight stops above 1.1820 Risk Control : Maximum 1% account risk given extension 7. GOLD FUTURES (GC) - 0% ALLOCATION Classification : LIQUIDATION - High Risk Territory GC Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bearish crossover from distribution highs ADX : 34.91 (declining trend strength) +DI/-DI Ratio : BEARISH 1.31:1 (-DI 34.91 vs +DI 26.64) Extension Risk : 12.2%+ beyond ALL institutional positioning Stochastics : Tactical 11.25/30.89, Strategic 89.46/93.86 (maximum overbought) Technical Trade Setup : Emergency Liquidation Protocol : Immediate Action : Complete liquidation using market orders if necessary Rationale : Void territory + technical breakdown = catastrophic risk No Stops : Emergency exit protocols - immediate execution required Reallocation : Proceeds to YM, NQ, ES primary opportunities immediately Short Opportunity (High Probability) : Strategy : /MGC shorts on any rallies above 2,690 Target : 2,380-2,400 (return to institutional zones) Stop : 2,720 (tight risk control) Correction Magnitude : 12-15% decline expected Risk : Maximum 1% account risk for speculative short Portfolio Risk Management Protocols Position Sizing Framework Maximum Risk Per Trade : 2% account value (1.5% for conflicted signals) Portfolio Heat Limit : 15% total risk across all positions Correlation Controls : Maximum 85% equity exposure given technical alignment Cash Management : 5-10% opportunity fund for technical setups Technical Signal Hierarchy Primary Confirmation : DEMA + DMI + ADX alignment required Entry Timing : Stochastics for tactical positioning optimization Risk Management : Institutional levels for strategic stop placement Profit Taking : Systematic protocol at 2:1, 3:1, trail remainder Market Scenario Analysis Scenario A: Continued Equity Strength (70% probability) Characteristics : Technical momentum sustains institutional accumulation Winners : YM, NQ, ES (maximize allocation to 85%) Losers : GC, 6E (extension corrections accelerate) Strategy : Aggressive equity positioning, complete defensive liquidation Technical Catalyst : ADX strength maintenance + DEMA alignment Scenario B: Technical Consolidation (25% probability) Characteristics : Momentum indicators cool, range-bound trading Management : Reduce position sizes, use stochastics for timing Opportunity : Accumulate on pullbacks to institutional levels Risk Control : Tighter stops, faster profit-taking on strength Technical Signal : ADX decline below 35, stochastics reset Scenario C: Technical Breakdown (5% probability) Trigger : DEMA bearish crosses on primary indices Action : Emergency position reduction protocols Management : Systematic liquidation, increase cash to 25%+ Re-entry : Wait for institutional level retests with technical confirmation Probability : Very low given exceptional institutional backing Weekly Monitoring Checklist Daily Technical Assessment DEMA relationship maintenance across all positions DMI momentum quality and directional bias confirmation Stochastics positioning for entry/exit timing optimization ADX strength validation for trend continuation Risk Management Verification Position sizing within 2% account risk per trade Portfolio heat below 15% total risk exposure Stop loss proximity to institutional support levels Profit-taking discipline at predetermined targets Technical Signal Evolution Cross-asset momentum convergence/divergence analysis Stochastics reset opportunities for position optimization DEMA separation quality for trend strength assessment Institutional level respect vs violation monitoring Key Success Factors Technical Execution Excellence Signal Clarity : Enhanced visual indicators enable precise timing Risk Discipline : Systematic adherence to technical signal hierarchy Momentum Quality : ADX + DMI confirmation prevents false signals Entry Optimization : Dual stochastics for tactical timing precision Institutional Integration Strategic Context : Structure charts provide positioning intelligence Tactical Timing : Execution charts optimize entry/exit precision Risk Management : Institutional levels anchor stop placement Professional Standards : Both frameworks align for optimal decisions Framework Validation Results Primary Opportunities : Perfect technical confirmation of institutional intelligence Risk Identification : Technical signals validate structure chart warnings Professional Execution : Enhanced indicators enable institutional-grade precision Capital Preservation : Systematic risk management across all timeframes Risk Disclaimer : All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Technical analysis and institutional intelligence frameworks are tools for risk assessment and should not be considered guaranteed predictors of future price movement. Position sizing and risk management protocols must be adjusted based on individual account size, risk tolerance, and market conditions. Document Status : Active execution framework requiring daily technical monitoring and weekly risk assessment updates. Integration with structure analysis mandatory for optimal decision-making. Framework Evolution : Enhanced visual indicators and systematic technical analysis represent significant advancement in execution precision. Continuous optimization based on market regime changes and signal quality assessment required.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by mxb1961
GOLD → Retest 3620 - 3600 (imbalance zones) on the uptrendFX:XAUUSD is consolidating ahead of important news. The market is currently testing support, but the bullish pattern remains intact despite the intraday correction. Gold is trading near $3650 in anticipation of US inflation data (CPI), which will determine the further trend. So far, the metal is consolidating below a record high of $3675. High CPI data: will strengthen the dollar and weaken gold (bets on Fed easing will decline). Low data: will push gold to new highs (the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts will be confirmed). At the moment, the probability of a rate cut on September 17 is 92% (25 bps), with an 8% chance of 50 bps. Technically, the chart is forming a consolidation against the backdrop of a bullish trend, the market is testing support, and if the bulls hold their ground in the key zone, traders may return to buying. Resistance levels: 3638, 3649, 3657 Support levels: 3620, 3607, 3600 There is a battle for the 3620 zone. Consolidation above this zone will confirm bullish strength; otherwise, we can expect a deeper correction to the 3607-3600 zone to retest the imbalance area before further growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
Why Now is the Best Time to Load Up on T-BillsIn 2025, investors have a unique opportunity to capitalize on high yields from Treasury Bills (T-Bills) as interest rates hover at their highest levels in years. With indications that the Federal Reserve may soon start cutting rates, now could be the ideal time to invest in T-Bills through the TLT ETF. This article explores why investing in T-Bills now could reap significant returns over the next decade. Key Points: Highest Interest Rates in Years: Current interest rates on T-Bills are elevated, offering attractive yields for investors. Historical data shows that such high yield opportunities are rare and may not be seen again for years. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The Federal Reserve has signaled potential rate cuts due to concerns about job market stability and inflation trends. Market expectations suggest that rate cuts may begin later in 2025, which could reduce yields on T-Bills in the future. Strategic Advantage of T-Bills: Investing now allows investors to lock in current high yields before potential rate cuts reduce returns. T-Bills offer a safe investment with guaranteed returns, backed by the U.S. government, making them a low-risk option. Why TLT ETF? The TLT ETF provides exposure to long-term Treasury securities, making it an excellent vehicle for capitalizing on current high yields. The advantages of using an ETF include ease of trading and diversification. Conclusion: With interest rates at a peak and expectations of future rate cuts, now is a strategic time to invest in T-Bills via the TLT ETF. By taking advantage of the current high yields, investors can secure returns that may not be available again for years to come. TVC:DXY NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER BITSTAMP:BTCUSD $VNIDIA NASDAQ:TSLA VANTAGE:SP500
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by CassianDrake
XAUUSD – CPI Today: Liquidity Sweep Scenario & Trading Plan📊 Market View Gold (XAUUSD) is sliding under short-term resistance (descending trendline), showing sellers are still in control short-term. On the M30 chart, buy-side liquidity levels are clearly stacked: 3,624 → 3,612 → 3,599 → 3,586. 👉 During the European session, expect a breakdown liquidity sweep toward these support zones before any bullish reaction. 📈 CPI View – US Session Soft CPI (below expectations) → Weaker USD, lower yields → Gold may bounce strongly from 3,612 / 3,599 / 3,586 and retest trendline/resistance. Hot CPI (above expectations) → Stronger USD, higher yields → Gold may break 3,612, sweep deeper to 3,599 or 3,586, then recover. ⚠️ High risk of news traps: the first reaction can reverse quickly. Wait for retests + confirmation candles before entering. 🔑 Key Levels Dynamic Resistance (trendline): 3,643 – 3,646 React Zone FIB: 3,650 – 3,654 OBS Sell Zone: 3,665 Support/Liquidity Zones: 3,624.36 (key zone support BUY) 3,612.60 (CP/React FIB) 3,599.31 (BUY ZONE) 3,586.49 (END LIQUIDITY – BUY ZONE) 📌 Trading Plan 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,646 – 3,648 SL: 3,652 TP: 3,640 → 3,635 → 3,630 → 3,620 → 3,610 → ??? 🔵 BUY SCALP: 3,612 – 3,610 SL: 3,605 TP: 3,616 → 3,620 → 3,625 → 3,630 → ??? 🔵 BUY ZONE (Primary): 3,600 – 3,598 SL: 3,592 TP: 3,605 → 3,610 → 3,615 → 3,620 → 3,630 → 3,640 → ??? Backup BUY: (if liquidity sweep deepens) 3,58x Hard SL: 3,578 ❗ If 3,578 breaks, don’t rush to re-buy—CPI volatility can extend moves further. ⚠️ Notes & Risk Reduce position size around the CPI release. Always wait for confirmation (pin bar / engulfing / retest) before entering. Use staggered TPs to lock in profits early. An M30 close above 3,654 invalidates near-term shorts and opens 3,665. ✅ Summary Gold could sweep liquidity into the buy zones before bouncing. Trade the reaction: SELL at 3,646–48 on rejection, BUY at 3,612/3,600 on clean bounce, and reserve backup BUY at 3,58x with tight risk. 👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time updates and BIGWIN setups during CPI volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
1
Multi-Asset Market Analysis & Trade IdeasAnalysis Date : September 10, 2025 Trading Analyst : Institutional Intelligence Framework Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System with Enhanced Volume Profile Analysis Executive Summary Current market analysis reveals exceptional institutional opportunities across equity indices with significant commodity sector divergence. The enhanced institutional intelligence framework identifies unprecedented buying dominance in major equity markets while revealing dangerous extensions in traditional safe-haven assets. Portfolio Allocation Strategy : 75-85% equity allocation with minimal commodity/currency exposure based on institutional positioning intelligence. Primary Opportunities (70-85% Total Allocation) 1. NASDAQ 100 (NQ) - 25-30% ALLOCATION Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Institutional Backing YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Q3 Volume Analysis : 26.8:1 buying dominance (6.18M UP vs 230.69K DOWN) Current Position : 23,963 (+3.4% above Q3 POC 23,186) Support Structure : Exceptional multi-quarter institutional foundation Risk Assessment : LOWEST RISK - strongest institutional conviction identified Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (65% probability) : Entry : /MNQ at current levels or any pullback to 23,500-23,600 Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position Target 1 : 24,500 (close 50% position) Target 2 : 25,000 (close 25% position) Target 3 : 25,500+ (trail remaining 25%) Stop Loss : 23,000 (below Q3 institutional support) Neutral Scenario (25% probability) : Range : 23,200-24,200 consolidation Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness toward 23,400 Management : Hold core position, trade edges of range Re-evaluation : Weekly basis for breakout confirmation Bearish Scenario (10% probability) : Trigger : Break below 23,000 (institutional support failure) Action : Exit all positions immediately Re-entry : Require fresh institutional accumulation evidence Risk Control : Maximum 2% loss on allocation 2. S&P 500 (ES) - 25-30% ALLOCATION Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Support 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Q3 Volume Analysis : 5.21:1 buying dominance (11.3M UP vs 2.17M DOWN) Current Position : 6,550 (+2.7% above Q3 POC 6,375) Support Structure : Consistent institutional accumulation across quarters Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - exceptional institutional backing Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (70% probability) : Entry : /MES at current levels or pullback to 6,450-6,500 Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position Target 1 : 6,650 (close 50% position) Target 2 : 6,750 (close 25% position) Target 3 : 6,850+ (trail remaining 25%) Stop Loss : 6,300 (below Q3 institutional support) Neutral Scenario (20% probability) : Range : 6,400-6,600 consolidation Strategy : Accumulate on weakness, trim on strength Management : Maintain core position size Monitoring : Weekly institutional level respect Bearish Scenario (10% probability) : Trigger : Break below 6,300 (institutional support violation) Action : Systematic position reduction Stop Loss : 6,250 (complete exit level) Re-entry : Wait for institutional re-engagement signals 3. DOW JONES (YM) - 20-25% ALLOCATION Classification : HIGH CONVICTION - YTD POC Validation 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Q3 Volume Analysis : 11.5:1 buying dominance (455.32K UP vs 83.17K DOWN) YTD POC Alignment : Perfect alignment with Q1 POC at 45,150 Current Position : 45,651 (+1.1% above institutional consensus) Risk Assessment : VERY LOW RISK - optimal positioning Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (75% probability) : Entry : /MYM at current levels (optimal positioning confirmed) Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position Target 1 : 46,200 (close 40% position) Target 2 : 46,800 (close 30% position) Target 3 : 47,500+ (trail remaining 30%) Stop Loss : 44,800 (below YTD/Q1 POC consensus) Neutral Scenario (20% probability) : Range : 45,000-46,000 consolidation around institutional consensus Strategy : Hold core position, add on dips to 45,200 Management : Optimal risk/reward positioning maintained Advantage : Minimal downside to institutional support Bearish Scenario (5% probability) : Trigger : Break below 45,000 (YTD POC violation) Action : Reduce position by 50% Ultimate Stop : 44,500 (complete exit) Assessment : Highly unlikely given institutional validation Secondary Opportunities (15-20% Total Allocation) 4. WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) - 15-20% ALLOCATION Classification : SOLID OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Foundation 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Q3 Volume Analysis : 1.94:1 buying dominance (1.38M UP vs 710.76K DOWN) Current Position : 63.27 (within Q3 institutional accumulation zone) Support Structure : Massive Q2 institutional accumulation at 57.50 Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - multiple institutional support layers Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (60% probability) : Entry : /MCL at current levels or pullback to 62.50-63.00 Position Size : Maximum 2% account risk per position Target 1 : 67.00 (close 50% position) Target 2 : 69.00 (close 25% position) Target 3 : 71.00+ (trail remaining 25%) Stop Loss : 61.50 (below Q3 institutional support) Neutral Scenario (30% probability) : Range : 62.00-65.00 consolidation within institutional zone Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness Management : Patient accumulation approach Support : Strong institutional backing provides downside protection Bearish Scenario (10% probability) : Trigger : Break below 61.00 (institutional support failure) Action : Exit positions systematically Re-entry : 58.00 area (Q2 POC support) Risk Management : Tight stops due to support proximity Defensive Positions (8-12% Total Allocation) 5. NATURAL GAS (NG) - 8-12% ALLOCATION Classification : MODERATE RISK - Declining Institutional Engagement 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Q3 Volume Analysis : Mixed activity with reduced institutional participation Q1 Peak : 10.6:1 buying dominance (697K UP vs 65K DOWN) - historical high Current Concern : 65% volume decline from Q1 peaks Risk Assessment : MODERATE - institutional disengagement evident Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (45% probability) : Entry : Current levels only with tight risk controls Position Size : Maximum 1.5% account risk per position Target 1 : 3.40 (close 60% position) Target 2 : 3.60 (close remaining 40%) Stop Loss : 2.90 (below Q3 POC support) Neutral Scenario (35% probability) : Range : 3.00-3.20 consolidation Strategy : Avoid new positions, monitor for re-engagement Management : Maintain defensive positioning Watch : Volume quality for institutional return Bearish Scenario (20% probability) : Trigger : Break below 2.90 (Q3 support failure) Action : Complete position liquidation Assessment : Institutional abandonment acceleration Avoidance : No re-entry until fresh accumulation evidence Risk Management Positions (8-13% Total Allocation) 6. EURO FUTURES (6E) - 5-8% ALLOCATION Classification : DEFENSIVE ONLY - Dangerous Extension 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : YTD POC Analysis : 1.0525 (aligned with Q1 POC) Current Position : 1.1769 (+12.9% above institutional consensus) Extension Risk : DANGEROUS - trading far beyond smart money positioning Risk Assessment : HIGH RISK - profit-taking territory Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (25% probability) : Entry : AVOID new long positions Existing Positions : Systematic profit-taking recommended Target : 1.1850 maximum (close all positions) Risk : Overextension beyond institutional support Neutral Scenario (35% probability) : Range : 1.1650-1.1800 at dangerous extension levels Strategy : Range trading only with tight stops Position Size : Maximum 1% account risk Management : Defensive positioning required Bearish Scenario (40% probability) : Trigger : Any breakdown below 1.1700 Target : Return to institutional consensus (1.0525) Action : Short opportunities on strength Strategy : Mean reversion to YTD POC likely 7. GOLD FUTURES (GC) - 3-5% ALLOCATION Classification : EXTREME CAUTION - Maximum Extension 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Extension Analysis : 12.2% above all institutional positioning Q2 Peak Activity : 11.5:1 buying dominance at 3,430 levels Current Position : 2,676 (extremely overextended) Risk Assessment : MAXIMUM RISK - correction vulnerability Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (15% probability) : Entry : AVOID all new long positions Existing : Immediate profit-taking recommended Risk : Extreme overextension unsustainable Management : Defensive exit strategy only Neutral Scenario (25% probability) : Range : 2,650-2,700 at unsustainable levels Strategy : No positioning recommended Assessment : Range trading too risky given extension Monitoring : Watch for breakdown signals Bearish Scenario (60% probability) : Target : 3,400-3,500 (return to institutional zones) Correction Magnitude : 12-15% decline likely Strategy : Short opportunities on any strength Entry : /MGC shorts on rallies above 2,690 Stop : 2,720 (tight risk control) Target : 3,450 (institutional accumulation zone) Risk Management Protocols Position Sizing Framework Maximum Risk Per Trade : 2% of account value Maximum Sector Exposure : 6% (energy, metals, currencies) Portfolio Heat : Maximum 15% total risk across all positions Cash Reserve : 5-12% for opportunities and margin requirements Stop Loss Hierarchy Tactical Stops : 2-3 Renko blocks on execution charts Strategic Stops : Below/above institutional POC levels Emergency Stops : Below major quarterly support levels Time Stops : Exit if no progress within 15 trading days Profit Taking Protocol Systematic Approach : Target 1 : Close 40-50% of position at 2:1 risk/reward Target 2 : Close 25-30% of position at 3:1 risk/reward Target 3 : Trail remaining 20-25% with institutional level stops Correlation Management Equity Exposure : Maximum 75-85% combined (NQ+ES+YM) Commodity Exposure : Maximum 25-30% combined (CL+NG) Currency Exposure : Maximum 10% (6E only) Safe Haven Exposure : Maximum 5% (GC defensive only) Market Scenario Planning Scenario A: Continued Equity Strength (60% probability) Characteristics : Institutional accumulation continues, economic resilience Winners : NQ, ES, YM (maximize equity allocation) Losers : GC, 6E (extension corrections) Strategy : Aggressive equity positioning, defensive commodity stance Scenario B: Market Consolidation (25% probability) Characteristics : Range-bound trading around institutional levels Winners : YM (optimal positioning), CL (institutional support) Neutral : NQ, ES (trade ranges) Strategy : Reduce position sizes, focus on institutional level trading Scenario C: Risk-Off Environment (15% probability) Characteristics : Institutional support failure, flight to quality Winners : Cash, defensive positioning Losers : All risk assets Strategy : Emergency protocols, systematic position reduction Trigger : Break below major institutional support levels Weekly Monitoring Checklist Daily Assessment Institutional POC level respect across all markets Volume quality and institutional engagement trends Position sizing within risk parameters Stop loss proximity to institutional levels Weekly Review Portfolio allocation vs. target percentages Risk/reward ratios for all open positions Institutional volume profile evolution Correlation analysis across positions Performance tracking vs. benchmarks Monthly Evaluation Quarterly volume profile updates YTD POC alignment reassessment Strategy performance attribution Risk management protocol effectiveness Market regime change identification Key Success Factors Institutional Intelligence Priority Decision Hierarchy : Institutional volume profile positioning (strategic) YTD POC alignment validation (tactical) Technical indicator confirmation (execution) Risk management protocols (defensive) Discipline Requirements Systematic adherence to position sizing formulas Emotional detachment from individual trade outcomes Institutional level respect over short-term price action Professional risk management with systematic protocols Performance Expectations Win Rate Target : 55-65% (institutional backing advantage) Risk/Reward Minimum : 2:1 average across all trades Maximum Drawdown : <8% of trading capital Consistency : Positive monthly returns 65%+ of time Disclaimer : All trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Position sizes and risk management protocols must be adjusted based on individual account size and risk tolerance. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Document Status : Active trading framework requiring weekly updates and quarterly reassessment.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by mxb1961