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THE WEEK AHEAD: HAL, NFLX, AA, UAL EARNINGS; EWZ, XLE, SLV, IWMHIGHLY LIQUID OPTIONS SINGLE NAME EARNINGS (LISTED CHRONOLOGICALLY IN ORDER OF ANNOUNCEMENT AND SCREENED FOR >50% 30-DAY IMPLIED): HAL (13/61/13.9%),* Tuesday, before market open NFLX (25/50/11.3%), Tuesday, after market close AA (18/69/15.9%), Wednesday, after market close UAL (13/64/14.8%), Wednesday, after market close From a bang for your buck perspective: AA ranks first, UAL, second, followed by NFLX, and HAL. I already have a covered strangle on in UAL and don't anticipate putting on more single name risk in the IRA (which is my primary focus running into retirement), but will naturally post a play should I get into one. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH >35% 30-DAY AND RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: EWZ (18/45/10.3%) XLE (23/42/9.7%) SLV (25/42/9.4%) GDX (12/38/9.2%) XBI (18/37/8.7%) KRE (16/36/8.7%) EWW (15/36/7.5%) I'm already in everything here but for KRE and EWW (the lowest bangs for your buck on the list) and the February monthly is a bit short in duration here for me (34 days) and March a tad long (62 days), so I may not do much this week in these, although going out to March with another rung in my GDX, SLV, and XBI positions isn't out of the question. BROAD MARKET RANKED BY 30-DAY IMPLIED: IWM (24/32/6.8%) QQQ (22/30/6.4%) SPY (16/24/4.8%) DIA (13/23/4.6%) EFA (14/20/3.8%) In spite of the fact that IWM and/or RUT have the higher 30-day, I may look at adding a July (181 days) rung to the SPY short put ladder I have on in the IRA, targeting the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit (which would currently be something like the 240), and do the kind of "opportunistic rolling" I've been doing with shorter duration rungs. (See Post Below). Although most frown upon going out this far in time, it's a way to deploy otherwise underutilized buying power that will earn something >0% while I work shorter duration setups or wait for a higher implied volatility environment and/or greater weakness. Additionally, my goals for the IRA are somewhat modest from a return on capital standpoint: I'm not looking to hit homers or be an incredibly attentive investor, opting for a once a week or even a once a month schedule of looking at things, making adjustments as appropriate, and/or taking off stuff approaching worthless that doesn't merit hanging onto due to the amount of time left in the contract. * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where the 30-day is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, thirty day implied; and the third, the percentage the at-the-money short straddle in the February monthly is paying as a function of stock price.
NYSE:HAL
by NaughtyPines
$HAL Long-Puts to Rely on $USOIL rejection before 50/bar (SHORT)In order for $HAL, $LBRT, $SOI and the other oilfield prep companies to precipitously fall in value, it will take OIL itself tanking a good bit more. Right now, Oil is very bullish -- HOWEVER, if it pushes back to the high 49s/bar, what we expect to see is a strong Dikembe Mutombo-level rejection of that value...From that rejection, the SHORT would be relying on a sell-off from the more impatient investors (which abound). There will be a shakeout of investors, and most will feel good accepting a small gain or loss, but when the bottom falls out of oil w/ COVID spikes inevitable, it will be too late for those who thought they could react just before it "got really bad." To hit June or Sept lows, we need to chart oil and spot its resistance for what it is (49.88 is the pivot point I keep going back to). This is so far from advice, that it is more akin brainstorming! While it is likely this trader place a long put on $HAL, it could just as easily be placed on $GUSH (an ETF for oil 2x bull run), which has a direct reaction and correlation to $USOIL prices, unlike Halliburton and Liberty, which have a correlation, but one that at times proves to be weak or not as statistically significant. And for those of you out hunting bears like me right now, make sure your fly is up and your shots are straight, because most bulls are going to be caught naked as this bull run (that has lasted since late March) comes to its close. The notion on every one of their parts is that they'll get out "Just before that happens." Um, c'est la vie, because it's difficult to sell things plummeting as the speed of sound. Right now we're artificially floated by some stim checks; it is an economy booster...but THE CRASH will only be that much more forceful due to the "free money" (Note: Most people think it really is a check without repercussions, and for some, it might be!). That said, go take a walk, get some fresh air, and if "You" still disagree with my bullish sentiments by that point you'll (at least) be closer to accepting that everything has its end--Including this COVID SEASON Bull run. Bear sh*t, Bullsh*t, It's all just fancy guesswork really...GO GET IT, traders. BDR SEE RELATED IDEA Re: the full "Crapping" of the S&P and global mkts below
NYSE:HALShort
by BDRTrigger33
2
$HAL Elliot wave projection; harmonics, show a SHORTHalliburton is overpriced and it was even suspected that it would trend towards that in the last $HAL update. As it nears the pivot points illustrated in the chart, it will continue to find new RESISTANCE lines it cannot cross. One such line is the former trade channel during Halliburton's last big bull run (when the whole market was, to be clearer still). With the shutdowns still looming as a possibility, traders find it hard to place confidence in $USOIL at various points in the 49-50/s range, with a 49.88 point being a huge pivot. A long put will be placed on HAL when a few more confirmation signals arise. THX, BDR
NYSE:HALShort
by BDRTrigger33
$USOIL going Sideways as predicted; The Bottom Falls out Soon$USOIL is experiencing a boost w/ wave extension shown in the chart. The overall price action is on a downtick. The expectation is that by about DEC 27 or DEC 28, the bottom really falls out and oil could retrace well below 45/b before the turn of the calendar year. With many analysts having gone full-on bull with everything, this voice should prove as a counter-intuition because the SHORT called for over the weekend worked out, and the sustainability of this global economy through a pandemic cannot be that strong. The short this trader acted on was Halliburton, but $GUSH or the oil ETF is towards the same notion. GOOD LUCK, at a time when LUCK IS NECESSARY. -BDR
FX:USOILShort
by BDRTrigger33
$HAL Reversal spells S-H-O-R-T': And it will happen very fast!It took OCT 28 to DEC 22 for HAL to climb from 11 to 20+ Expect the reversal to happen even quicker, although there is no surety that $HAL retraces 11. This calls for a short, but just "HOW SHORT" is unclear. It could revisit the October lows, with COVID continually presenting new challenges to the global economy. The fact is, $USOIL had its bull run, but conditions are not indicative of a global economy that is healthy enough to support any long positions on oil and oil-related stocks. Best of luck -BDR
NYSE:HALShort
by BDRTrigger33
Halliburton Opens HUGE Buy Window for EVENTUAL Long; PredictablyThe "Delayed dip" in reaction to $USOIL "hitting the crapper" took a full weekend to sink in, but $HAL has opened way down, as has rival $LBRT. Great buy windows will be here this week, and a re-entry could possibly wait until $HAL plummets sub-13 per share. It is finding no support at this level currently (now 12.98 as of the update, 1034 EDT). This could set up a very nice long swing, as the oil stocks have throughout a very strange corrective season in a lingering COVID-world. Unable to assess much with regard to its recovery, an entry < 13 on a stock holding just exited at 16.55/s is about as golden as it gets, presumably. $HAL (3rd) EXIT: 16.55 Re-entrance @ -3.55+ per share is beyond ideal. Milk the udders of this cow with precision, but caution. As for advice, I advise doing your own homework whether this sounds clever and great or abysmally misleading! BEST TO ALL TRADERS AND INVESTORS! -BDR See related idea from September 9th "Test of Halliburton Strength to come"
NYSE:HALLong
by BDRTrigger33
True Test of Halliburton Strength to come With $USOIL Crapping$HAL has fought furiously through a terrible market for $USOIL, but its time of reckoning could now be here with OIL under 38 per barrel. It would be wholly unsurprising to see $HAL go sub-14, even sub-13, because oil dipped roughly 7 percent yesterday and that dip in price will take some time to be recovered. $HAL and most oil-related stocks should be shorted for the time being. If Halliburton holds its value with oil this far in the crapper, it is an even stronger company than previously thought. Halliburton has been around since 1919, so 101-years of resiliency will be put to the test until crude prices at least climb 40/bar again. Logic dictates that HAL, LBRT, and all the actual oil giants (BP, Shell, etc) take a royal tumble throughout the remainder of September, even. That is to say, this trader scheduled a PUT for $HAL with a break-even at just under 14/s. The risk is high with $HAL having shown so much strength since its position was first entered at 5.11/share, but rather than "only wait" for the re-entrance point it made sense to place a put on Halliburton accordingly. As far as advice, none given: If you think it's a clever and good move, more power to you and your account. HAPPY TRADING and May the odds be forever in your favor! -BDR
NYSE:HALShort
by BDRTrigger33
$HAL Re-Entrance Time: Cycle-Timing, Projecting Next Exit$HAL has been a pet for this trader (Those who are already following yours truly have surely noticed), and the time to re-enter and ride Halliburton has arrived again. A partial re-entrance was made at 15.99 / Full entrance will be here at 16.20. The last EXIT was at 16.55; substantial gain before a retrace that we all just saw. The next exit will be eyed at the 17.12 mark; further evaluation of the harmonics to come when it reaches that Fibonacci point, as well. $USOIL climbed past 43/bar while HAL lingered (even decreasing) - the delayed GAINS now are being reeled in. This is still the same MASSIVE CORRECTION that I first entered at 5.09 per share in mid-March. Since that point, we have over a 300 percent correction with a bit more to come. The final-point to "stop toying with" HAL will come around 21 per share; that could be a ways away-- projections of that nature are fairly useless unless someone is taking a mega-long call, and even still, there is too much room to even worry about that mark yet. For now, a re-entrance at 16.2 is fine --> The move to 17.12 will gain 92 cents per share on the position! RECAP of Halliburton plays: HAL 1st Entry was @5.09 per share HAL 1st Exit was @12.81 per share Hal 2nd Entry was @ 12.7 per share Hal 2nd Exit was @ 16.55 per share ----- Hal 3rd Entry is @ 15.99, and fully in 16.20 (Avg cost 16.065) Hal Potential 3rd Exit @ 17.12 -- Alert set! HAPPY TRADING, and this time again: MAY THE ODDS BE FOREVER IN YOUR FAVOR! --BDR
NYSE:HALLong
by BDRTrigger33
$USOIL passes 43/bar; Is 45 Next, or is there a retrace coming?$USOIL has struggled for obvious reasons, COVID. However, it climbed 43+ today and is mildly hyperbolic. It would be surprising to see no retrace under 43, but in the moment, indications are the 45/bar mark could be sooner realized than previously thought: This should impact the oil giants, and personal pets $HAL and $LBRT, quite positively throughout the remainder of the trading week. Keep an eye on the 45/bar mark, because that could mark a definitive recovery-point, a benchmark, for the oil giants. The oil-related stock's correlation to crude prices is there - but the timing is never as easy to guess. All systems should be go, and entry points are still available w/in reason on many crucial oil stocks - LBRT is now this trader's top holding for the time being. HAPPY TRADING! -BDR
FX:USOILLong
by BDRTrigger33
Natural Exit-Point from $HAL Presenting Itself (Again)$HAL has finally spiked that elusive 16/s mark it flirted wtih ever so briefly before. Now marks a graceful point to TAKE PROFIT and exit this position. Market volatility is high and $USOIL has struggled to surpass and claim 42+ per barrel. HAL 1st Entry was @5.09 per share HAL 1st Exit was @12.81 per share Hal 2nd Entry was @ 12.7 per share Hal 2nd Exit will be 16+ per share The game isn't done with this one, but we're marking a point here as it has thrived against a few indicators that all seem to indicate otherwise (USOIL Trending down, Market Volatility, and mirror-industry stocks such as $LBRT). We will chart $HAL carefully over the next while though with a pet this long-standing I personally don't need the alerts even. The hope is to see $HAL retrace sub-13/s, but before further analysis is done this is nothing more than a rough guesstimate at the downward trend anticipated in reaction to HAL thriving w/ so many lingering issues in the COVID correction season. HAPPY TRADING!
NYSE:HALShort
by BDRTrigger33
2
Halliburton Trending with $USOIL; Throw out Fib. Points? LONG!The long-awaited push past 43 per barrel now has taken place for oil, which renders key oil industry cog Halliburton on the rise. FIB Tracement shows a sell-point at 15.7, but tracing growth curves Halliburton should probably encounter precious little resistance until it goes 16+ per share: At that point, there is the first exit for a swing on this -- Though, this trader is staying in until 20+ as it should recapture January levels as oil trading resumes to normalcy. The original sell-window on that hovered around late 4th Quarter, but it might not be realized until late in the 1st Q of 2021, or even mid-way through the 2nd quarter. The sell-point @ 15.7 will still represent an enormous profit for those who entered near the March low at just 5 per share. Taking a 300+% profit is fine, but there is a longer play here that should have no issues coming to fruition. HAPPY TRADING! -BDR Post note: See related idea (July 15) which was kind of a final "all call" to "long" $HAL. That said, it's really still **NOT** too late. Good luck!
NYSE:HALLong
by BDRTrigger33
Halliburton Correction Trend Firming; A Great Entrance STILL (!)FIB retracement shows indications of a final-long on $HAL w/ the current entry point still providing strong value. On a great day for the market overall, Halliburton is on the wave of corrections again: USOIL is pushing towards 41/bar and could hit 42+ by the conclusion of the trading week: Again, this is an "all systems go" for the same $HAL long that has been discussed since entrance at 5/share in mid-March. This is not a "too late to enter" scenario at all; rather, a perfect entry point for anyone looking for a nice long swing trade on this crucial cog in the oil refinery industry Addendum (Unnecessary variety): Though I did claim on a previous update to the last $HAL entry that I would exit @ 12.5/share - I clearly talked myself out of that one and maintain the strength of confidence I did when first entering this. The eventual correction we are looking for is 22/share; it traded 25 on the opening of the calendar year before the disaster took hold of the market due to COVID-19 mania... As always: Happy Trading and Investing! -BDR
NYSE:HALLong
by BDRTrigger33
$HalAnother means of profiting off of corona Virus is $HAL, with oil production seemingly on a halt due to new corona cases it looks as if this might be a perfect opportunity to short this stock. Other oil companies fall within the same realm though. If the news continues to worsen this could lead to an incredible (but unfortunate) opportunity for profit. Layoffs among oil companies are among record highs right now. While no one wants these things to happen you might as well make money off of them (Because the rich definitely are)
NYSE:HALShort
by Helios_Capital_Investment
Halliburton Correction Crawling: Profit Lingers Too DistantHalliburton has been a pet stock for this trader since entering during its 2020 low around 5 per share. The correction since has been great: But it has also STALLED. $HAL spiked to 16/bar and the anticipation of a re-test of that mark has been utterly defeated by the inability of $USOIL Unable itself to really crumble the 40/bar mark. It has tested and failed that mark at least four times, with it now back under 40 again. The COVID lingering is mostly why, but this Virus has been tenaciously grasping itself into the oil sector heavily. Gas prices at pumps just fell. $HAL will likely still make that 200% correction from this point that's been preyed upon...the fact is, that might still linger DEEP into 2021, and for much more short-term and profitable gains, an EXIT POINT should probably be sought with this lynchpin stock in the oil industry. While it would be lunacy to call a 225-250% ROI on the 5/s entrance point a failure, the full correction on this just dwells too far in the future to continually wager on its inevitability -- for this trader, anyway. Good luck w/ this position if you do await its full correction: Patience will be NEEDED! -BDR
NYSE:HAL
by BDRTrigger33