Gold Breaks Through Three Pillars of Traditional LogicGold Breaks Through Three Pillars of Traditional Logic
The current strong performance of gold prices has transcended the traditional logic of safe-haven or inflation hedging, evolving into a "repricing" of the global monetary and credit system.
Below is my macroeconomic analysis of recent gold price movements, representing only my personal views.
Our current holdings are approximately $5080.
The stop-loss is set around $5050.
Our short-term intraday target price: $5150-$5200 range.
Core intraday trading strategy: As long as the gold price remains above $5050-$5060, we will adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, with holding periods that may be indefinite or short-term. We will adjust the overall strategy according to the trading rhythm.
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Macroeconomic Analysis:
1. Structural De-dollarization and Credit Restructuring
Many central banks continue to purchase large amounts of gold to diversify reserve risks. This price-insensitive demand provides solid support for gold prices. Market concerns about the credibility of the US dollar and US fiscal policy have transformed gold from a "safe-haven asset" into a "non-sovereign credit asset."
2. Geopolitical and Policy Uncertainty. Policy volatility during the US election year, the Trump administration's tariff policies, and geopolitical stances (such as actions against Venezuela and Greenland) have exacerbated global uncertainty. Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran, have also stimulated safe-haven demand.
3. "Crowded Trade" by Central Banks and Capital.
Major central banks globally have been net buyers of gold for several consecutive months (approximately 60 tons per month). Simultaneously, private investors (such as ETFs and institutional investors) have also significantly increased their gold holdings. These factors combine to create a virtuous cycle, pushing up gold prices. The rising gold prices themselves attract more trend-following funds, thus creating a self-reinforcing upward cycle.
As shown in the chart: Technical Analysis
Key Resistance and Support Levels Analysis
Core Resistance Zone: $5400 - $6000
Many institutions believe $5400 is the next important target.
More optimistic forecasts (such as those from Bank of America and Jefferies) suggest that if a historic bull market cycle repeats itself, gold prices could challenge $6000 or even $6600 by 2026.
Core Support Zone: $5000 - $4850
The recently broken psychological level of $5000-$5100 has become a key support zone for both bulls and bears.
If gold prices experience a deep correction, I believe $4850 (the previous high) will be a stronger support level.
Besides technical corrections, we also need to be wary of low-probability, high-impact events.
Potential Black Swan Events:
1: A large-scale oil supply shock triggered by the Iranian crisis.
A surge in oil prices could trigger stagflation (high inflation + economic recession) panic, making gold, as the ultimate safe-haven asset and inflation hedge, a hot commodity.
If this happens, it should be seen as a significant buying opportunity, but it's important to note that the initial widespread decline across various assets could lead to a liquidity shock.
2: Escalation of conflict between Russia and NATO.
This would disrupt the global geopolitical landscape, and extreme risk aversion would rapidly push up gold prices. This is also a significant buying opportunity, but market volatility will become extreme and unpredictable, requiring extremely strict position management and stop-loss strategies.
3: A major breakthrough in China's technology sector.
This could trigger a plunge in US tech stocks, leading to global market turmoil. In the short term, liquidity shortages (investors selling off all assets to cash out) could put pressure on gold prices; however, in the medium to long term, this will reinforce the logic of de-dollarization and asset diversification, which is beneficial for gold.
