Harmonic Patterns
Bearish reversal off swing high resistance?NZD/CHF has rejected off the resistance level, which is a swing high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.4654
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance that aligns with the127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 0.4675
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance that aligns with the 128.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 0.4589
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Golden days are over!This is just a self journal.
What goes up must come down and I think it's time for gold.
Last bulish wave price target We got last bulish wave in 4 triangle pattern
That Price is the 98000 dollar
In the wave we have a fast momentume for give liquidity then rejected vdown price to 74000
For confirmation we shold be RD _ in histogram macd
Set your money management & stop loss actually
#Banknifty directions and levels for December 11Current view:
> The current view suggests that even if the market opens with a gap-up, structurally it may not sustain. We can expect an initial decline. As mentioned earlier, we are in a range-bound market, so the index may continue to move up and down within the previous range.
> In this case, the notable point is: if the decline forms a solid structure and consolidates around the support level, then we can expect a further correction.
Alternate view:
> The alternate view suggests that if the gap-up sustains and the market breaks the immediate resistance, we can expect the pullback to continue.
> However, until that happens, the market bias may remain bearish.
#Nifty directions and levels for December 11Good morning, friends! 🌞
Market directions and levels for December 11th:
> In the previous session, the Dow Jones continued its pullback after the Fed FOMC announcement. However, the Indian market is still showing a negative bias.
> Today, the GIFT Nifty is expected to open with a positive start of around 100 points.
What to expect today?
> In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty opened positively in the beginning, but the momentum did not sustain. As we discussed earlier, the sentiment still looks like consolidation. Even though the market declined in the previous session, today’s opening may start on a positive note.
So overall, it seems like the consolidation sentiment is likely to continue today as well.
Current view:
> The current view suggests that even if the market opens with a gap-up, structurally it may not sustain. We can expect an initial decline. As mentioned earlier, we are in a range-bound market, so the index may continue to move up and down within the previous range.
> In this case, the notable point is: if the decline forms a solid structure and consolidates around the support level, then we can expect a further correction.
Alternate view:
> The alternate view suggests that if the gap-up sustains and the market breaks the immediate resistance, we can expect the pullback to continue.
> However, until that happens, the market bias may remain bearish.
Elise | BTCUSD 15M — Distribution → BOS → Trendline RebuildBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Market swept downside liquidity at 89.07 and rebuilt structure through BOS. Price then expanded, distributed under major supply, and retraced back into trendline support. Current price is compressing above structure, meaning accumulation is active unless trendline collapses.
Bullish Continuation Setup
As long as price maintains above 91.300–91.450, bullish continuation remains in play.
🎯 Target 1: 92.300 inefficiency fill
🎯 Target 2: 92.800–93.300 liquidity cluster (main objective)
🎯 Target 3: 94.600 major supply retest
Bearish Breakdown Scenario
Break below trendline + close under 91.000 = bullish thesis invalid.
📉 First Sweep: 90.200
📉 Full Continuation: 89.070 → 87.776 (deep discount)
Bias: Bullish only above trendline — neutral until breakout — bearish below 91.000.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Educational structuring only.
Silver Powerful BreakoutOANDA:XAGUSD : Cup with Handle pattern and now powerful breakout, As long as hold above $54.70, every chance that it will touch $59.90 & $62.70 in upcoming days, Stop Loss $52.70.
Ethereum (ETH) Update, Lower High ?Ethereum has rallied, but the move lacks strong volume support, making the bounce look fragile. With lower highs continuing to form, the broader trend remains bearish despite the short-term push.
Price is now approaching the $2,500 support, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level and key daily structure — a critical zone for bulls to defend.
Key Points:
- Rally shows weak bullish volume
- Structure remains bearish with consistent lower highs
- Major support sits at $2,500 (0.618 Fibonacci + daily support)
What to Expect:
Unless bulls defend $2,500 with strong volume, ETH is likely to continue lower and print another confirmed bearish lower high.
XAUUSD: The Uptrend Is Gaining Momentum AgainGold traded cautiously yesterday as investors waited for this week’s FOMC meeting. But this very “quiet phase” is building the foundation for a new upward leg, as the fundamental factors still lean strongly toward the Bulls.
1. The Fed Is Nearing a Policy Shift – A Direct Boost for Gold
Lower interest rates are always a key catalyst for gold because the metal does not generate yield. When yields fall, gold immediately becomes more attractive. The market is now almost fully pricing in a potential rate cut from the Fed in early 2025 – a powerful driver for the medium-term uptrend.
2. Central Banks Continue to Buy – A Strong and Steady Support
Despite short-term pullbacks, central bank demand remains consistently strong. These institutions are long-term players, and their continued accumulation helps gold maintain its bullish tone across the entire market.
3. Geopolitical Tensions Stay Elevated – Gold Remains Well Supported
The unified support from the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK for Ukraine in London shows tensions are far from easing. Rising instability → more reasons for gold to stay strong.
4. Technical Outlook
Price is reacting around the strong resistance at 4250, but there is still no significant selling pressure.
Ichimoku shows Kumo providing solid support, with price staying above the cloud – confirming the dominant uptrend.
Current buy setup remains very reasonable:
SL: around 4173
TP: targeting 4253–4260
If price gives a mild retest and bounces, the probability of breaking above 4250 is very high.
Conclusion: The Trend Remains BULLISH
With supportive macro fundamentals + strong technical structure, XAUUSD continues to hold a clear bullish formation. As long as the Fed does not sound too hawkish, gold could easily break above 4250 and head toward higher levels in the coming days.
XAUUSD | Gold Signal |Dec 11,2025📌 MARKET ASSESSMENT
1. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD:
The Fed lowered interest rates by 0.25%, causing the USD to weaken significantly as the market saw the easing cycle officially begin. Bond yields fell sharply, directly supporting gold.
• US Stocks:
Stocks surged after the interest rate cut decision, with money flowing into riskier assets. However, the weaker USD supported gold, so gold was not sold off.
• Fed:
The 0.25% rate cut shows that the Fed wants to stimulate the economy early instead of waiting for Q1/2026 data. However, this information was within expectations and has already been absorbed by the market. Gold is likely to only increase slightly if SPDR does not buy back.
• Trump:
The Trump administration continues to prioritize fiscal easing, public spending, and economic protectionism. These policies help accelerate the economy but in the long term put pressure on the USD, further supporting gold.
• Gold ETF (SPDR):
SPDR sold a small amount of 1.15 tons, mainly short-term profit-taking before the Fed announcement. After the Fed cut interest rates, the likelihood of SPDR returning to accumulate gold is higher, supporting gold.
b) Politics:
The situation in the Middle East has not completely cooled down. Geopolitical instability continues to act as a driving force for gold prices.
c) Market Sentiment:
The market has shifted to risk-on, but at the same time, safe-haven flows remain high due to the weaker USD. Overall: sentiment supports a sustained increase in gold, not a sudden surge.
High demand for gold in Asia at the end of the year is a driving force for gold to reach its all-time high (ATH).
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2. Technical Analysis:
• Gold broke out of the 4205-4220 accumulation zone with a strong candlestick after the Fed announcement.
• The short-term trend has shifted to an uptrend and is forming a new upward wave.
• The M15 RSI is in the high zone but not yet showing divergence, indicating that the upward momentum is still stable. • Important retest zone: 4.219–4.239 (EMA confluence + box boundary).
• Technical targets based on the pattern are: 4.263 → 4.288 → 4.309.
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RESISTANCE: 4.263 – 4.288 – 4.309
SUPPORT: 4.219 – 4.193 – 4.174
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3. Market performance yesterday (December 10, 2025):
• Gold price fluctuated sharply around the FED event.
• Immediately after the 0.25% reduction was announced, gold rose slightly, then increased more strongly due to a weaker USD.
• The price completely broke out of the 4.219 zone, confirming a new trend.
• SPDR sold 1.15 tons, but this did not have a significant impact because market buying pressure was too strong.
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4. Strategy for today (December 11, 2025):
🟢 BUY when: (Preferred).
- Price touches support: 4.219 – 4.193 – 4.174 (rebound with M5 candlestick confirmation)
- Price breaks resistance: 4.263 – 4.288 – 4.309 (breakthrough with M5 candlestick confirmation)
🔴 SELL when: (Not preferred).
- Price touches resistance: 4.263 – 4.288 – 4.309 (rebound with M5 candlestick confirmation)
- Price breaks support: 4.219 – 4.193 – 4.174 (breakthrough with M5 candlestick confirmation)
SET ALERTS FOR THESE RESISTANCE/SUPPORT LEVELS. WHEN THE ALARM SOUNDS, ENTER THE TRADE TO MAKE MONEY. - Set Stop Loss below the M5 candlestick's wick for confirmation. If it's swept, the market is sideways – stop trading in that price range and wait until the dangerous zone is passed before continuing. If the M5 candle is short, increase the volume to ensure the risk remains constant and profit increases. Adjust the volume so that the loss per trade is 2% of the account, do not adjust the loss level based on volume.
- Take Profit ensures a good Risk:Reward ratio. To let profits run, close a portion of the position, set the Stop Loss to breakeven for the remainder, do not let profits run using your own capital. Preserving capital is more important than making money.
- When gold crashes, do not try to catch a falling knife, do not chase the price down with sell orders (Sell orders are very dangerous because you're selling in panic and buying in greed). Wait for the price to hit strong support and show signs of reversal before buying aggressively. You'll still profit from the price drop, but more safely.
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5. Notes when Scalping XAU/USD:
• DO NOT LET LOSSES RUN – Cut losses immediately when there is a wrong signal, no need to wait for the Stop Loss. Preserving capital is more important than making money.
• Do not average down, do not enter trades with a volume that exceeds your account's capacity.
• The M5 timeframe RSI is an important signal: oversold → look for buying opportunities, overbought → look for selling opportunities. Stop hunts by large players often leave behind divergences.
• Minimum Stop Loss with a Risk:Reward ratio of 1:1, do not hold trades for too long.
• Prioritize trading with the H1-H4 trend, do not enter trades against the major trend.
• Buying when the M5 candle closes above the MA20 and selling when the M5 candle closes below the MA20 will be better.
• Master the three techniques: DIVERGENCE - BREAKOUT - PATTERN BREAKOUT that the admin has provided. Understand how large players create stop hunts. Do not trade when the market is sideways, accumulating, distributing, or consolidating.
AUDUSD: Mild Uptrend Set to Continue!Hello traders! Today, we will analyze the AUDUSD currency pair, and based on both fundamental and technical factors, I believe that AUDUSD is set to continue its mild uptrend in the short term.
AUDUSD is currently trading in an ascending channel , with strong support at 0.66265 and resistance targets around 0.66300 - 0.66600. The Fed maintains a stable monetary policy , helping USD remain steady , while the RBA continues its accommodative stance , supporting the AUD.
Clarifying the Fundamental Factors:
In the current market context, the Fed has maintained a stable monetary policy, which allows USD to retain its stability compared to other currencies, including the AUD. The Fed has no immediate plans to cut interest rates, creating a relatively stable environment for the USD, which supports its value against other currencies.
Although the RBA still maintains an accommodative policy, there have been no significant moves recently, but the economic stability in Australia continues to support the AUD. Economic indicators have shown modest improvement, and the stability in the economy prevents the AUD from weakening sharply. As a result, this creates favorable conditions for AUDUSD to maintain its mild uptrend.
Good luck with your trading!
USDJPY Analysis UpdateHello traders, today let’s analyze the trend of the USDJPY currency pair!
In my opinion, USDJPY is likely to remain stable in the short term, with strong resistance at 157.000 and support at 156.000.
From a fundamental perspective, the Fed is maintaining its monetary policy with a high probability of no changes in interest rates in the near future. This helps the USD maintain its strength against other currencies, including the Japanese Yen. The market is expecting that the Fed will not take major actions to change interest rates, providing stability for the USD . Meanwhile, the BOJ continues with its loose monetary policy and has shown no signs of tightening, which keeps the Japanese Yen weak and supports the upward trend of USDJPY.
From a technical standpoint, USDJPY is trading near the strong support level at 156.000 . This is a price area that has been tested and bounced back several times, indicating stability and the potential for continued upward movement. If the price holds above this support level , moving towards the resistance at 157.000 is quite likely.
Additionally, external factors such as geopolitical tensions and global economic recovery may continue to impact USDJPY, providing stability for the USD and maintaining pressure on the Japanese Yen.
Thank you for listening, and I wish you successful trading!
BoE puts pressure, USD turns weak – who will win?As the Forex market anxiously awaits the final Fed decision , GBPUSD looks like a boat anchored in the middle of the river – not falling sharply, but not able to break out either. Today’s news shows that the BoE may cut rates soon , putting pressure on the pound, while the USD is weakening due to expectations that the Fed is also preparing to lower rates. As a result, the pair is moving in a sideways range, but still leaning slightly to the upside.
On the chart, GBPUSD is maintaining an uptrend structure , sticking to the rising trendline. The 1.3310 area acts as a near support; if price holds above this zone, the current fluctuations can be considered accumulation before moving towards the 1.3380 resistance.
My preferred scenario: price moves sideways around 1.3310 and then bounces toward 1.3380. The sensible strategy is to wait for a bullish signal at support and look for buys along the sideways-up structure, rather than selling against a market where neither fundamentals nor technicals favor the bears.
XAUUSD – Gold intraday analysisXAUUSD – Gold intraday analysis: Price rejects upper supply and forms a potential pullback structure
Gold opened today with a strong bullish continuation but quickly encountered heavy supply around the 4248–4260 zone. The sharp rejection from this area shows that buyers are losing momentum as price stretches away from its EMA cluster on the H1 chart.
After the impulsive rally, XAUUSD is now forming a corrective structure, suggesting that the market may need a deeper pullback before any sustainable trend continuation.
Key Technical Observations
1. Strong supply zone at 4248–4260
This area previously generated a large bearish candle, indicating institutional selling. Today’s wick rejection confirms that the zone remains valid and is the main resistance to watch.
Unless price breaks and closes above 4260, upward movement remains limited.
2. Mid-range support 4230–4220
This zone acted as resistance before today’s breakout and is now retested as support.
It aligns with the H1 EMA cluster (EMA 34–89), making it a high-probability pullback area if price continues to correct.
3. Deeper support at 4208–4198
If the mid-range fails, the next liquidity pocket sits around 4208–4198.
This zone aligns with previous consolidation lows and minor Fibonacci retracements, making it a potential bullish reaction point.
4. EMA Structure
Price is currently over-extended above EMAs, suggesting the rally may be losing strength.
A mean-reversion pullback into EMAs is healthy before the next major directional move.
5. RSI Behavior
RSI shows early signs of bearish divergence near the upper supply, supporting the idea of a corrective phase before continuation.
Intraday Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1: Bearish correction inside the structure
Expect price to drift lower toward 4230–4220
A clean break below 4220 opens the path to 4208–4198
This scenario aligns with the dotted structure shown in your chart.
Key support levels:
4230
4220
4208
4198
Scenario 2: Bullish continuation only if 4260 breaks
If buyers reclaim 4260 with strong volume, price may attempt a run toward new highs.
Key resistance levels:
4248
4260
4275
4290
Trading Strategy
Short-term buy setups
Look for bullish signals only when price dips into support:
Buy zone 4220–4230 if price holds above EMA cluster
Safer buy: 4208–4198 liquidity sweep followed by bullish reversal
Short-term sell setups
The optimal area for selling remains:
Sell zone 4248–4260 (confirmed rejection zone)
Traders should wait for candle confirmation to avoid chasing false breakouts.
Conclusion
Gold is currently in a healthy corrective phase after rejecting a strong supply zone. The market is likely to range between 4260 resistance and 4220 support before showing a clear breakout.
Monitoring how price reacts at these zones will define the next directional leg.
The Breakout Is Closer Than You Think…NZD/USD – 1H MARKET STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
1) Current Price Structure
- Market is in a clean uptrend (higher highs & higher lows on the left side of chart).
- After the impulsive bullish leg, price has shifted into a sideways range, forming a clear consolidation between Support and Resistance.
- Micro-structure inside the range shows repeated equal highs & equal lows → compression before expansion.
2) Liquidity & Key Zones
- Resistance Zone (Top of Range): 0.5785 – 0.5805
- Multiple rejections → liquidity resting above (buy stops & breakout traps).
- Support Zone (Bottom of Range): 0.5750 – 0.5765
Consistently defended by buyers → liquidity sitting below (sell stops).
Liquidity Note:
Expect a sweep of support (fake break) before a bullish continuation — classic smart money behavior in a bullish market.
3) Today’s Market Scenario
Main Scenario (Bullish Bias – Preferred):
- Price retests the support zone
- Likely performs a liquidity sweep below the zone
- Sharp bullish rejection
- Price rotates back to resistance
- Breaks out → continuation with uptrend alignment
This matches your projected red zig-zag + final bullish impulse.
Alternative Scenario (Low Probability):
- Clear candle close below 0.5740 with no recovery → shift to bearish intraday bias.
4) Market Psychology
- The market is "resting" after a strong push → accumulation psychology.
- Smart money wants liquidity → they will likely sweep below the support to fill buy orders.
- Retail traders try to sell the range highs and buy the lows, but SM often collects their stops before moving to the real direction.
Key idea:
Range = where weak hands lose money.
Breakout = where strong hands take profits
5) Intraday Strategy (Entry – SL – TP)
BUY Setup (Aligned With Your Chart):
Entry: 0.5755 – 0.5765
Stop Loss: 0.5740 (below liquidity pocket)
TP1: 0.5795
TP2: 0.5820
TP3 (Extended): 0.5840+
Trade Management:
If price sweeps support and closes back above → BUY confirmation.
If price closes below → invalidate bullish setup and reassess.
