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Head_and_shoulder

H&S Scenario on 4H | Jobless Claims could decideFX_IDC:XAUUSD H&S SCENARIO Until Thursday morning, trader sentiment about another rate cut was around 80%-90% in favor, but the sentiment on the Gold price since the beginning of the week has been highly undecided 🤔 due to several economic data releases which were not strong enough to give Gold a clear direction. Data: ( Actual | Forcasted | Previous) Monday, December 1, 2025 🗓️ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 52.2 | 51.9 | 52.5 ⬆️ ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.2 | 49.0 |48.7 ⬇️ ISM Manufacturing Prices (Nov) 58.5 | 59.5 | 58.0 ⬇️ Fed Chair Powell's speech omitted any important mentions of economic conditions or the rate cut process, focusing instead on the political processes surrounding the selection of a new Chair. 🏛️ Tuesday, December 2, 2025 CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.2% | 2.1% |2.1% ⬆️ Wednesday, December 3, 2025 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) -32K | 5K | 47K ⬆️ S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) 54.1 | 55.0 | 54.8 ⬇️ ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 52.6 | 52.0 |52.4 ⬆️ ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Nov) 65.4 | 68.0 | 70.0 ⬇️ U.S. President Trump Spokes about drugs and car costs mostly 🗣️ If the Gold price continues to decline past $4225 and reaches the Neckline support at around $4174 - $4179, then a further drop could send the price breaking through the Neckline and Gold could drop primarily to $4110, and secondarily down to the $4070 to $4020 mark. 📉 The Initial Jobless Claims announcement at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, December 4, is expected to determine the next step for Gold and potentially provide a clear direction. 📰 If the actual Initial Jobless Claims figure is higher than expected, this could push Gold back toward the $4250 resistance level. ⬆️ Conversely, if the figure is lower, I anticipate the price will either fall or continue to trade sideways in the $4186 - $4225 range. ⬇️ ⚖️ The Initial Jobless Claims data may be ineffective in driving Gold's price due to the significant economic data releases scheduled for Friday, December 5. ⚠️ Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep) Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep) The technical analysis regarding the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern is primarily a trader-driven sentiment result. While it typically acts as a reversal signal following a recent uptrend, the pattern on higher time frames (such as the 4-hour chart) does not always offer a clear direction, and the price does not consistently follow its implications. Keep this in mind and monitor economic data releases closely. My bias remains bearish until a clear market shift occurs. Buy for Sell: $4200 - $4215 Late entry could be $4179 when Initial Jobless Claims look good. Stop Loss: $4230 TP 1: $4167 TP 2: $4153 TP 2: $4116 TP 3: $4070 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Wick-Sniper
3
Bulls Still in Control?Hello traders! Here’s an idea for AUDCAD based on current structure, trend, and momentum. (This is market analysis, not financial advice. Always use proper risk management and seek additional confirmations before entering a trade.) Intraday Buy Idea (short term move) • Entry: 0.91500 – 0.91600 • Stop-Loss: 0.91350 – 0.91300 • Target Area: 0.91800 – 0.92000 ⸻ Market Analysis AUD/CAD continues to trade within a relatively modest daily range—typical for this pair—especially as we approach the end of Q4 and move deeper into the holiday season, when liquidity thins and price action often becomes more choppy and range-bound. On the 4-hour chart, an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern has formed. The market recently closed above the neckline/right-shoulder zone, confirming potential bullish structure. A clean retest of this zone (around 0.91500-0.91600) could provide an opportunity to catch the continuation of the bullish momentum that began late last week (around Nov 21). Our target—0.92000—lines up closely with November’s high and a key structural resistance level. If momentum remains intact, price could attempt another test of this area. ⸻ Fundamentals (per economic sources) Australia (AUD) • The RBA has kept rates steady, maintaining stability in the AUD. • Commodity prices trending higher (especially metals) provide underlying support for the Australian dollar. • A potential shift toward U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts later on can indirectly support AUD through broader USD softness and risk-on flows. (per economic sources) Canada (CAD) • Canada’s manufacturing sector continues to contract, signaling broader weakness. • While recent GDP growth was positive, the expansion was driven mainly by oil exports and government spending, not broad economic strength. • Mixed and uneven economic performance may limit near-term CAD strength. Combined, these factors support a slightly bullish bias for AUD/CAD in the near term, aligning with this technical setup.
Long
by PipTips
EURUSD: double Scenario Hello Traders, this is the long-term channel! We are truly in the way of more bearish days! However, in the more natural timeframe we see a possible Head and shoulders! I'm not a pattern trader! but sellers were not able to goes further than the HEAD! So??? They are not strong enough! new buyers are in! may be a peace in Ukraine could alter it! but I'm still more bearish for the term of my trade length! Although I aim to long after confirming the H&S and also breaking the latest strong level and breaking the bearish channel up!!
Short
by AliSignals
NVDA Head and Shoulders- Dec Rate Cuts has changed setupNvidia’s setup has shifted. With the Fed signaling a likely rate cut on December 10th, the market will start baking that optimism into asset prices ahead of time. When monetary conditions ease, high-valuation tech often gets an extra tailwind, which means the expected head-and-shoulders pattern on NVDA may fail to play out cleanly. The chart might still roll over, but the macro backdrop now works against a decisive breakdown. Short positions here demand caution. Original post Nvidia’s bear case rests on one core idea: the stock price assumes a flawless, world-eating AI future, and markets almost never deliver on “perfection narratives.” NVDA trades at extreme valuation multiples for a hardware-driven, highly cyclical business. Those multiples only hold if AI infrastructure spending keeps compounding at its current breathtaking pace for years. But that demand is dangerously concentrated in a handful of hyperscalers who are spending now and rationalizing later. Michael Burry’s recent argument sharpens this point: he claims true end-demand for AI horsepower is vastly overstated, and that much of the current GPU frenzy is a self-reinforcing loop of capital, hype, and accounting gimmicks rather than broad, organic need. If boards pause to question real ROI, or if the circular funding loop breaks Nvidia’s revenue curve can flatten quickly, dragging the valuation down with it. Competition, long dismissed by NVIDIA bulls, is another structural headwind. AMD is now shipping accelerators that hyperscalers are actually integrating, and every major cloud provider is building in-house silicon to reduce dependence on NVDA’s margins. Even if Nvidia maintains leadership, it doesn’t need to lose the crown to lose the multiple, slight shifts in workload allocation or a handful of missed design wins are enough to pressure margins. And Burry’s critique deepens this point: he argues Nvidia’s reported profitability is flattered by depreciation assumptions and massive stock-based compensation that buybacks have failed to offset, meaning the “true” economic profit is less bulletproof than headlines suggest. Add to that the fact that U.S. export controls have effectively erased the China data-center market, once 20–25% of revenues and expectations of a seamless global TAM look increasingly unrealistic. Technically, NVDA is doing exactly what a euphoric, overowned stock does when gravity starts tugging: momentum is fading, the price is slipping under short-term moving averages, and reactions to spectacular earnings have been strangely sluggish. That’s often the early signature of distribution rather than accumulation. And this lines up directly with Burry’s broader thesis: when a narrative becomes crowded and reflexive, the slightest wobble triggers violent air pockets. NVDA has become the ultimate proxy for the AI boom, the most crowded long in the market, meaning it’s the first thing funds sell when risk appetite cools, and the last thing buyers chase during corrections. Put simply, Nvidia is a phenomenal company priced as if nothing can ever go wrong, while Burry is arguing that much of what looks “perfect” is not what it seems. The bear case isn’t that Nvidia collapses. It’s that the AI boom normalizes, competition accelerates, accounting realities catch up, margins slip toward something earthbound, and investors recalibrate how much they’re willing to pay. In that world, NVDA doesn’t need bad news to fall. It only needs the news to arrive slightly less euphoric than the fantasies currently baked into the price. #NVDA #Bearish #HeadandShoulders #MichaelBurry
NASDAQ:NVDA
by dzmiller39
DASH shows accumulation breakout potentialIt's highly likely that DASH will break out of its accumulation zone A typical pattern has formed on the chart Declining within the channel – forming a bullish formation (pGIP in this case) – transition to growth A locally developed Head and Shoulders pattern, which is usually followed by growth Dash is also in the anonymous coin narrative, which is currently performing well... Current price: $76 Based on the above, it's highly likely that the price could reach $85 and above... If the price breaks below the purple area shown in the chart and consolidates, a downward movement is likely
Long
by c_views
USDCAD: Patient Fed & oil drop support iH&S projection to 1.4370USDCAD is building an interesting medium-term setup as crude oil weakness combines with Fed patience and supports dollar strength against the loonie, with an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern pointing to a measured-move target near 1.4370. Crude oil recently broke below $60, directly pressuring the Canadian dollar since Canada is a major commodity exporter. Meanwhile, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, despite labour market softness ahead of a potential partial NFP on Friday, keeps the buck bid as investors hold dollars for yield. The technical structure confirms what the macro backdrop suggests: USDCAD has room to run higher from current levels. Key drivers Oil breakdown hurts CAD: crude slipped below $60 recently, and every time oil weakens, the commodity-linked loonie follows. This correlation has been tracking cleanly since July, when USDCAD turned higher alongside the energy sell-off. Fed patience supports USD: Despite labour-market weakness signals from existing data releases, the Fed isn't rushing to cut in December, and a patient central bank typically supports the dollar because investors can hold dollars and earn decent carry while awaiting clarity on policy. Inverse H&S pattern: The technical setup shows a head near 1.3537, a neckline breakout near 1.3900, and a clean retest at 1.3985 (former 2022 resistance turned support). The measured move from head to neckline brings 1.4370 into play, with intermediate targets at swing levels. RSI reset above 50: After showing flat divergence at the recent highs, the RSI has reset by bouncing cleanly off the 50 line on the daily chart, suggesting momentum has room for another leg higher before any overbought concern. Use 1.3985 as your line in the sand, consider longs above this level with the first target at the peak of 1.4145 (validation of the breakout), the second at 1.4250, and trail stops toward 1.4370 if momentum holds. Watch for oil to remain below $60 and Fed messaging to stay cautious, as a daily close below 1.3985 would shift the bias to consolidation, while full pattern invalidation sits at 1.3720. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
Did you Know ?!!!The price can form a head and shoulders pattern. If that is happen, expect a significant price increase. Did you really think that profiting from the current bull run (a comprehensive upward market) would be easy? Don't be naive. Do you think they will let you buy, hold, and sell at low levels without any struggle? If it were that simple, everyone would be rich. But the truth is: 90% of you will lose. Why? Because the crypto market is not designed for everyone to win. They will shake you. They will make you doubt everything. They will panic you and sell at the worst possible moment. Do you know what happens next? The best players in this game buy when there is fear, not sell; because your panic gives them cheap assets. This is how the game goes: strong hands feed off weak hands. They exaggerate every dip, every correction, every sale. They make it look like the end of the world so that you abandon everything, and when the market starts up again, you'll sit there saying, "What the heck just happened?" This is not an accident. It's a system. The market rewards patience and punishes weak emotions. The big players already know your thoughts. They know exactly when and how to stir fear to make you give up. Because when you panic, they profit. They don't play the market. They play you. That's why most people never succeed. Because they fall into the same traps over and over again. People don't realize that dips, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and panic are all part of the plan. But the winners? They digest the noise. They know that fear is temporary, but smart decisions last forever. We've seen this hundreds of times. They pump the market after you sell. They take your assets, hold them, and sell them to you at the top, leaving you with nothing, wondering how it happened. Don't play their game. Play your own.
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by CobraVanguard
2
Bitcoin Falling Wedge Signals Breakout or Breakdown ZoneBitcoin is trading inside a falling wedge, a pattern that traditionally leans bullish when the breakout occurs. At the same time, the price is approaching a historically sensitive region — the 112,000 USD zone, which is acting as the potential Point A (left shoulder zone). If Bitcoin rejects from 112k–113k, this level may complete the left side of a developing head and shoulder formation, especially if the market loses its neckline later. Important Supports to Watch $97,000 → The most crucial support on the daily. $97,500–$98,000 → Double-bottom demand zone. $92,000 → The next major support & unfilled gap region. A clean break below 97k will flip the entire market structure bearish and likely trigger a rapid decline toward 92k, confirming the neckline breakdown of a head and shoulder setup. Bullish Scenario If BTC forms a double bottom around 97.5k–98k, or if it sweeps liquidity and reclaims the level: The falling wedge can break upward. A push toward 112k becomes highly probable next week. A breakout above 113k invalidates the bearish reversal and opens the way for continuation to higher levels. This scenario requires a successful retest of the falling wedge breakout and strong volume.If BTC gets rejected at 112k–113k, and later breaks down below 98k, the chart will complete: A textbook head and shoulder A lost wedge structure Momentum shift from bullish to bearish This breakdown can trigger a high-velocity dump into the 92k gap zone.What Traders Should Focus On 112k–113k → Critical rejection zone to confirm the left shoulder. 97k–98k → Most important support and possible double-bottom area. 92k → Final downside target if BTC loses the neckline. Watch for liquidity sweeps and volume strength to validate direction.Final View Bitcoin is entering a decision phase. The chart is offering both bullish wedge breakout potential and bearish head and shoulder risk, depending on how price reacts at 112k and 97k. This is a position where traders should stay alert and wait for clean confirmation from either the breakout or the breakdown before placing major trades.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.P
by crypto_vulture_signals
Nokia:Inverted Head and Shoulders Structure + Retest of BreakoutOn the weekly chart of Nokia, a classic Inverted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern has formed. The breakout above the neckline occurred with increased volume, confirming the strength of the move. Currently, the price is undergoing a standard technical retest of the neckline from above — a typical phase before a potential continuation higher. The structure remains active: the projected height (H) points to an initial target at $5.48, based on the distance from the neckline to the head. If momentum continues, Fibonacci extension targets are located at $6.18 (1.272), $6.55 (1.414), and $7.08 (1.618). Technical view: the retest of the neckline is happening on declining volume, strengthening the probability of a bullish reversal. EMA 50/100/200 are beginning to align in a bullish crossover. The ascending channel structure also supports the upward movement. Fundamentals: Nokia is progressing with its strategic programs in 5G and upcoming 6G network technologies, reinforcing its long-term growth prospects. Improved financial performance and the recovery in demand for telecommunications infrastructure amid global digitalization trends continue to support investor interest in the stock. The Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is confirmed by the breakout and current retest. As long as the price holds above the neckline, the bullish scenario toward $5.48 and beyond remains intact. This is a medium-term trend reversal structure — strong setups like this form the foundation for major moves. Don’t miss them.
NYSE:NOKLong
by TotoshkaTrades
Ardmore Shipping Corp - Exciting Chart Pattern Disclaimer: This post is purely based on technical chart analysis and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Last Year in May 2024, stock price was at nearly $23. from that level it fall to $8.5. During this fall and rise, stock has made an inverted Head and Shoulder Chart Pattern. According to my analysis , i have marked some of levels on the chart for reference. Please share your thoughts. Best wishes.
NYSE:ASCLong
by CandleQuest
1
DGKC - PSX - Technical AnalysisOn daily TF, DGKC has made almost a perfect Head & Shoulder reversal pattern whereby right shoulder is a bit higher than left - an indication that this reversal will continue and price will continue to drop. CMP is 234.28 (on 24-Oct-2025) and if it does not bounce then Fair Value Gap (FVG) is quite below at 188~192 level; Trade values are depicted below and TP has been calculated based on height of Head. To draw the confluence, Klinger Oscillator also suggest that SCRIPT is in Bear Run and RSI indicator is also heading downwards. Trade Values Buy-1: 192 SL: 182 Buy-2: 242 Buy-3: 276 TP: 319
PSX:DGKC
by Golden_Spur
Gbp/Usd - Inverse Head & Shoulders Targeting Bullish BreakoutA potential bullish reversal is forming on GBP/USD in the 15-minute chart via a classic Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Pattern Details: Left Shoulder: Formed with a minor pullback and recovery. Head: A deeper dip indicating strong buyer absorption and bottoming. Right Shoulder: Symmetrical pullback signaling the potential end of the bearish move. Neckline: Marked by horizontal resistance (around 1.34395) — a confirmed breakout above this level may trigger bullish continuation. Trade Idea: Entry Zone: On breakout and close above neckline (~1.34400) Target 1: Previous structural resistance (~1.34680) Target 2: Extended move toward ~1.35070 Stop Loss: Below the right shoulder or neckline retest (~1.34186) Analysis Notes: This pattern suggests bullish momentum is building. Confirmation needed via volume spike or candle close above neckline. Risk-to-reward ratio is favorable for short-term intraday trade.
Long
by Hamza_Gold
AUDUSD - H&SHI can see in AUDUSD chart below signs: 1- Inverse Head and Shoulders (Bullish Reversal) 2- Potential Shark Harmonic Pattern 3- Current Market Context: Recent technical analysis from mid-October 2025 suggests that AUD/USD is near a major support confluence zone (around 0.6450-0.6485) and some traders are looking for long (buy) setups, which aligns with your bullish view if support holds. However, other analysts noted a general downtrend and current bearish pressure due to factors like US-China trade tensions and potential RBA rate cuts. Risk Management As I rightly noted, any analysis can fail. Key risk management principles apply: a- Confirmation is Crucial: Wait for a confirmed, sustained break above the neckline before assuming the pattern is active. b- Set a Stop Loss: A typical stop-loss for an inverse head and shoulders is placed below the right shoulder to manage risk if the market reverses unexpectedly. c- Use Other Indicators: Combine this pattern analysis with other technical indicators and fundamental news (e.g., upcoming Australian employment figures, RBA/Fed speeches) to increase reliability. d- Capital Preservation: Always take care of your capital; leverage magnifies both profits and losses.
Long
by Daragolbon
Kiwi H&S and strong Dollar confirm breakdown, eyes on PCE next!The Kiwi hit multi-month lows near 0.5750 following USD strength yesterday, as the dollar index was driven by upbeat US economic data following warnings by Fed Chair just on Tuesday. The head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on NZDUSD has broken down, targeting the golden pocket for the time being, but the PCE data could offer a breather if it cools down. Kiwi drop was driven by : US jobless claims crush expectations (218K vs 233K expected) US GDP revised to 3.8% from 3.3%, fastest growth in 2 years RBNZ cutting cycle accelerates amid economic contraction Tariff-related risk-off sentiment hammering high-beta currencies Technical Setup : Head & Shoulders targeting 61.80% or lower while trading below the neckline Current price action near 0.5750 round support reveals pressure Upside possible but hangs on PCE, with 38-50% retracement as a resistance zone RSI is at near-oversold levels with more room to trend lower Bias - BEARISH : Entry: Below 0.5775 breakdown Target 1: 0.5720 (immediate support) Target 2: 0.5620 (78.6% Fib retracement) Stop Loss: 0.5830+ (failed bounce level) Risk/Reward: 1:2+ setup Eyes on : Today : US PCE inflation data Oct 9 : RBNZ meeting (50bp cut possible) Watch DXY strength continuation towards 100.00 This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
Meta platforms, D ( Channel + 2 Fibonacci Extensions up & down )Hey Traders and Investors, I hope you all are doing well in your life. market is nature's response and Price is the God . Let's check the market with the help of natural levels tool : Trend Based Fibonacci Extension in addition with Trend Channel . After forming almost a ' Head and Shoulders ' pattern on Daily chart, Meta platforms has given a pull-back ( base for Fib-Extension UP level tool on the right side , $690.51 ). The Pull-back trend expect to continue till the retest level of 23.6% ( $765 ) of Fib-Extension UP level tool on the right side . The most near level for the re-test is the 50% level ( $664.14 ) of Fib-Extension Down level tool on the left side , for a new UP trend Entry ( investors ). Note: The marked Circle ⭕ enclosed candle is the important level candle, Up Trend channel's 50% trend line is intersecting with 23.6% of Fib-Extension UP level tool on the right side . Keep on checking this Level for your future trading decisions. " Buy 🟢 "above $731 with the stop loss🔻of $690 for the 🎯 Target 1: $765 🎯 Target 2: $811 🎯 Target 3: open. " Sell 🔴 " below $664 with the stop loss🔺of $690 for the 🎯 Target 1: $634 🎯 Target 2: $590 🎯 Target 3: open. Smart Levels is Smart Trading 👨‍🎓 ⚠ RISK DISCLAIMER : All content provided by "TradeWithKeshhav" is for information & educational purposes only. It does not constitute any financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. All investments / trading involve risks. Past performance does not guarantee future results / returns. Always do your own analysis before taking any trade. Regards : Team @TradeWithKeshhav Happy Trading and Investing!
NASDAQ:METALong
by TradeWithKeshhav
Range-Bound Rocket: BTC’s Coiled Spring Between S1 and R3-ATHRange Bound Rocket: BTC Loaded and Coiled for $120k Retest Description: BTC is now trading around $114,260, still inside the range I’ve flagged earlier. We reloaded at our previously posted support zones between $110k and $111k. That gives us a strong base. I’m watching for acceptance above the $113k to $114k red box, which overlaps with the neckline of a potential reverse Head & Shoulders on the 4‑hour chart. It hasn’t triggered yet but we are in validation mode. (expecting a retest to 113k and then a break up) If we get a breakout with volume expansion and wide‑bodied candles, I’ll treat that as a valid activation. Target remains $119k and above. This table shows how likely BTC is to stay above certain price levels over the next two weeks based on current volatility. These are not predictions, they represent statistically expected ranges based on price behavior. 2WK/Probability, Price Level, Meaning 90%, ~$96,700 BTC is very likely to stay above this level 75%, ~$103,200 BTC has a strong chance of staying above here 50%, ~$111,000 This is the midpoint, BTC has equal chance of being above or below 25%, ~$119,400 BTC has a one in four chance of closing higher than this 10%, ~$127,400 Only a small percentage of outcomes put BTC above this level Key takeaways: BTC is currently trading around $114,260, sitting just above our red resistance zone at $113,000 to $114,000. Our first upside target, $118,000, lines up with the top 25 to 30 percent range of expected outcomes. This is reachable if the broader market stays supportive. $120,000 sits closer to the top 20 percent threshold. BTC would need strong momentum and favorable macro data to push there in the next two weeks. Downside probabilities While the structure looks bullish, we should still consider these potential retracement levels: Around 46 percent chance BTC dips below $110,000 Approximately 43 percent chance it drops under $109,000 Roughly 30 percent chance BTC trades below $105,000 These downside paths are consistent with our S2 and S3 support zones, which were successfully defended during the last major pullback. What I'm doing and suggest : Breakout confirmation: I’m looking to add above $113k to $114k only if volume expands and candles show conviction, meaning minimal wicks and strong closes. Weak volume or upper wicks mean the breakout could fail. Main stop is back inside the range. Scalpers can use a tighter invalidation below $112.2k. Reload zone: A move into $110k to $109k is a statistically common retest. I’ll look for buyer defense and fading downside pressure to reload. Volatility risk: I'm already positioned long from our previously posted support zones around $110k to $111k, so I’m not actively adding or hedging right now. Into CPI and the Fed, I’m staying hands-off unless we get a clear breakout or strong market signal. For those not in position: Avoid chasing breakouts before the event Look for confirmation or reaction post-data If we get a volatility spike, retests of $110k to $109k are still statistically common and may offer a better entry The goal is to avoid being overexposed heading into binary catalysts. I’m holding my current spot exposure and letting the trade breathe. If no breakout forms: I expect BTC to remain in a range between $111k and $118k. Support zones from prior posts maintained a bullish bias. If BTC consolidates below $114k but keeps forming higher lows, I’ll consider that ongoing accumulation. Catalysts to monitor: Nasdaq or NQ breakdown • Tech strength: Nvidia up ~30% YTD on strong Blackwell Ultra demand, ADI and MX showing strength despite macro headwinds. Jobless claims rising again • U.S. jobless claims are rising to 237K, signaling labor market cooling. Continuing claims are easing but job additions in August were weak at just 22K. Recent wide downward revisions (~911K fewer jobs year-to-date) reinforce rate‑cut bets. Geopolitical risk • Geopolitical tensions remain tail‑risks. Fed rate tone and CPI reaction • Fed tone and CPI outputs are increasingly important as data is tilting soft and markets are pricing in easier policy. • The USD’s trajectory matters. Further weakness helps BTC and tech space gain more cushion. Tech remains a key driver. AI and semis continue to lead Nasdaq strength, and BTC still tracks equity moves closely. A soft dollar also reduces market drag and supports upside potential.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by crypticwaves