BTC 80% Chance of Another Low, BUT First...On 11/22/25 , Bitcoin experienced a relatively rare event: the Daily RSI dropped below 26 . On the Coinbase COINBASE:BTCUSD chart, this has occurred only 20 times historically since December 2014. By analyzing the price action following each occurrence, we can estimate the probability of future behavior when RSI reaches these extreme levels.
The results of each occurrence are summarized in the table shown on the chart.
The table includes:
Dates when RSI fell below 26
Whether price eventually made a lower low ( 16 out of 20 times, or 80% )
Maximum bullish move from the Daily swing low close to the highest wick before correcting (average +16% )
Time to reach that swing high (average 8 days )
Time to reach a new lower low (average 22 days )
The 16 times price eventually made lower low are marked with red or purple vertical lines . The 4 times it did not make a lower low are marked with green vertical lines .
Key Observations
When RSI drops below 26, it typically signals strong bearish momentum , but it is also often followed by a bullish RSI divergence as price forms a higher low in momentum. Historically, a lower low formed 80% of the time , suggesting a high probability of another downside move for BTC in the weeks ahead.
At present:
RSI bottomed at 22.93 on 11/22/25
BTC has already rallied ~11% from the swing low
We are currently at day 21 without a new lower low
All of these metrics remain well within historical norms .
However, there is an interesting nuance. Of the 16 cases where a lower low eventually formed , only 4 took more than 20 days to do so . In all 4 cases (marked with purple vertical lines) , BTC tested the Weekly 12 EMA before making the next leg lower (with a minor exception on the11/24/19 case, where a marginal lower low formed before a strong push above the Weekly 12 EMA).
The Weekly 12 EMA currently sits around $100,000 , suggesting BTC may test this level before any further meaningful correction.
ACTIONALBLE SCENARIOS
If this is a bear market:
Passive investors: Continue dollar-cost averaging at your preferred interval.
Active investors: Consider taking partial or full profits if BTC trades above $100,000 . Set calendar alerts for October 2026 and/or below $50,000 to resume heavier accumulation when BTC may bottom this bear cycle.
Swing traders: Consider Long setups below $86,800 with a stop-loss at $83,500, targeting the Weekly 12 EMA (~$100,000) , with an extended target around $101,000 .
If this is still a bull market:
Price will likely make a lower low to below $80,000 before a bullish move.
Passive investors: Continue dollar-cost averaging.
Active investors / swing traders: Continue accumulating below $86,800 , with heavier accumulation around $78,370 .
Hope this study helps add context to current price action. Trade safe everyone, PEACE.
