Bitcoin - Will the bears push the price towards $104.000?Introduction
Bitcoin is currently in a phase of consolidation following the recent sharp decline. For several days, the price has been forming a symmetrical triangle, indicating increasing tension between buyers and sellers. This phase is often seen as a period of preparation for a larger move. However, clear bullish momentum is still lacking, which increases the risk of a downward breakout.
Triangle pattern
The price is moving within a triangle pattern, where the highs are decreasing and the lows are slightly rising. This suggests a compression of liquidity and declining volatility. The upper boundary of the pattern acts as dynamic resistance, while the lower boundary serves as support. Once the price breaks out of this structure, the direction of the next major move will likely be determined. For now, the price seems trapped between these two key levels.
Liquidity at the top with the bearish 4h FVG tested
Yesterday, the upper side of the structure was tested, just above the 4-hour bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG). In that area, liquidity from previous highs was also located. The price reacted with a strong rejection and quickly fell back. This reaction confirmed that sellers still have control and that demand has weakened. The signal indicates that the market is struggling to break above $114,000.
4h bearish FVG
The 4-hour bearish FVG is located between approximately $108,600 and $111,300. This zone now serves as a key resistance area. Each time the price touches this region, selling pressure increases, limiting further upside movement. As long as this zone is not convincingly broken with volume, the short-term trend remains bearish. A breakout above this level could open the door to higher targets.
Liquidity area at the bottom
At the lower end of the triangle, there is a clear liquidity area around $103,500. This is where stop-losses from long positions and potential buy orders from large players are located, waiting for a liquidity grab. If the price moves into this area, a short wick downward could occur before a potential bounce takes place. Therefore, this level is important to monitor in case of a downward breakout.
Conclusion
BTC still shows no signs of strength. The rejection from the 4-hour bearish FVG above the liquidity zone points to a lack of buying interest. As long as the price remains within the triangle and trades below $113,000, the likelihood of a downward move remains higher. Only a convincing breakout above the upper boundary could temporarily improve market sentiment. Until then, the bears remain in control, with focus on the support around the lower liquidity zone.
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