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Gold Bulls Reloading? Smart Money Buys!The technical outlook on XAU/USD shows a well-defined bullish trend, developing within an ascending channel that started in late June. Price recently pushed toward the upper boundary of this channel, reaching a key resistance zone between 3,410 and 3,420 USD, which aligns with a previous supply area and significant daily structure. The reaction in this zone suggests a potential fake breakout, hinting at a short-term pullback before a continuation of the upward move. The RSI oscillator supports this view, displaying bullish momentum with a breakout above the 60 level. However, the current slope hints at a possible minor correction before the next impulsive leg higher. The most relevant demand zone lies between 3,340 and 3,360 USD, at the base of the ascending channel—an ideal spot for buy orders to accumulate in anticipation of a move toward previous highs. Backing this technical setup, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report as of July 15, 2025, paints a constructive picture. Non-commercial traders (institutional speculators) increased their long positions by over 8,500 contracts, while also cutting short positions by about 1,600 contracts, indicating a strong bullish bias. Commercials also increased their shorts (+16,448), a typical hedge during rallies, but not enough to invalidate the bullish structure. From a seasonal perspective, July remains one of the historically strongest months for gold. According to MarketBulls data, over the past 2 years, gold has averaged gains of 105+ points in July, with solid returns also visible on the 5-year (+45 pts) and 10-year (+25 pts) averages. August also tends to be supportive, reinforcing the idea of a medium-term bullish extension. Lastly, the retail sentiment is heavily skewed, with 72% of retail traders short, and only 28% long. From a contrarian standpoint, this is another strong bullish signal. When the majority of retail traders are short in a structurally bullish market, the potential for a short squeeze remains high.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EURUSD - Parallel channel in play!The following chart offers a closer look at the current structure of the EUR/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe. Price action has been respecting a well-defined bearish parallel channel, which has provided clear boundaries for both resistance and support. Based on the ongoing reaction to these levels, we outline both bullish and bearish scenarios that could unfold in the coming sessions. Bearish Parallel Channel Since June 30, EUR/USD has been consistently moving within a downward-sloping bearish parallel channel. Each attempt to break above the upper boundary of the channel has been rejected, while the lower boundary continues to act as dynamic support. This sustained rejection from the upper trendline confirms the strength of the bearish momentum currently at play. The pair remains structurally weak unless a clean breakout to the upside occurs, accompanied by strong bullish confirmation. Bullish Scenario A potential bullish reversal could materialize if EUR/USD manages to hold above the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located between 1.1620 and 1.1600. This zone may provide the necessary support for the bulls to step in. If the price maintains strength within or just above this FVG and buyers begin to show dominance, a rebound toward the upper boundary of the channel could occur. A successful breakout above the channel could then trigger a stronger rally, possibly targeting the 1.1750–1.1800 region, marking a clear shift in short-term momentum. Bearish Scenario Conversely, if the pair fails to hold the 4-hour FVG between 1.1620 and 1.1600 and closes a strong bearish 4-hour candle below this zone, the market may be setting up for further downside. This would suggest a rejection of the FVG as resistance and open the path for a drop toward the lower end of the channel. Interestingly, this area also aligns with a previously established larger 4-hour FVG. A move into this deeper FVG could present a more favorable zone for a longer-term bullish reversal, as it offers a stronger liquidity pool and potential demand area. Final Thoughts The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture. Price is hovering near a key support zone within a bearish channel that has defined its movement for several weeks. Whether bulls can hold this support and break above the channel, or bears take control and push it lower toward the broader 4-hour FVG, will determine the next major directional move. Traders should closely monitor price action around the 1.1620–1.1600 level for clues on the likely breakout direction. -------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
by Youriverse
68
GBP_NZD LOCAL SHORT| ✅GBP_NZD  made a retest of the Local horizontal resistance level of 2.2580 And as you can see the pair is already Making a local pullback from The level which sends a clear Bearish signal to us therefore We will be expecting a Further bearish correction SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ 

 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by ProSignalsFx
1
AUD-CHF Risky Short From Falling Resistance! Sell! Hello,Traders! AUD-CHF is trading in a Downtrend along the falling Resistance line so we are Bearish biased and after The potential retest of the Falling resistance we will Be expecting a further Bearish move down Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
3
Bitcoin - Bearflag Structure Taking ShapeBitcoin is showing signs of weakness after a clean rejection from a 4H fair value gap, where price also swept the previous swing high. This aligns well with a broader bearish context as the market failed to sustain above the upper bounds of the trend channel, indicating potential exhaustion of the bullish correction. Rejection Zone and Fair Value Gap The rejection took place precisely within a 4H imbalance, adding confluence to the idea that this was a premium retracement in a bearish leg. The high formed inside that zone has now been swept, setting up conditions for distribution. A smaller 1H fair value gap was also left behind during the displacement move down, creating a clean area for price to return to and potentially react from. Channel Structure and Bearflag Formation Structurally, price has been climbing in a rising channel that resembles a bearflag pattern. The recent market structure shift broke the channel low, confirming that the rising structure is likely corrective. The rejection from the top of the flag and the subsequent breakdown align with a typical bearflag setup, suggesting a continuation move to the downside. Short-Term Retracement Expectation Before the next leg down, price may retrace to fill the unmitigated fair value gap while possibly sweeping the minor swing high that caused the current drop. This retracement would offer a premium shorting opportunity in alignment with the bearish bias, especially if internal structure remains weak on the lower timeframes during the return to the FVG. Draw on Liquidity and Price Objective The main objective for this setup is a sweep of the last equal lows near 115950, which represents a strong draw on liquidity. If the bearflag setup plays out fully, this area is highly vulnerable and could be the next significant target once the FVG is filled and lower timeframe distribution confirms. Conclusion Price has rejected from a 4H imbalance and swept liquidity to the upside, forming a clean bearflag structure. As long as price remains below the recent high and fills the 1H FVG without invalidating the shift, the path of least resistance looks to be down toward the liquidity resting below 115950. I’ll be watching for signs of weakness during the return to the FVG for a potential short trigger. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
TRADENATION:BTCUSDShort
by TehThomas
36
GBPAUD: Weekly Reversal | COT & Seasonality Support Bullish📊 Technical Outlook Price strongly reacted from a key weekly demand zone between 2.0400 and 2.0500, showing clear absorption of bearish pressure. The RSI is rebounding from the 30 area, signaling early reversal potential. The next technical target lies between 2.08900 and 2.10000, within a well-defined supply zone. An early bullish reversal is in progress, with potential for a swing move toward the red zone. 🧠 Commitment of Traders (COT Report – 08/07/2025) GBP: Non-commercial traders are net long, with positioning growing across the board: +869 longs / -926 shorts. Commercials reduce shorts and increase longs → Bullish bias. AUD: Non-commercials are clearly short (-2,267 longs / +1,957 shorts). Commercials are increasing long exposure (+2,629), but still in the minority → Bearish bias. ➡️ The COT spread confirms a GBP long vs AUD short bias. 📅 Seasonality (July) GBP: Historically strong in July, with average monthly gains across all timeframes (especially the 2Y window). AUD: Less favorable seasonal profile in July; flat to slightly negative across all time horizons. ➡️ Seasonality supports GBP strength. 📉 Retail Sentiment 58% Long / 42% Short on GBPAUD ➡️ Retail traders are still heavily long → a shakeout of weak long hands is possible before the real rally begins. 🎯 Strategic Conclusion GBP shows bullish convergence across technical, COT, and seasonal factors. AUD presents clear weakness. The current price zone offers a clean entry point for longs, targeting the 2.08900–2.10000 supply zone.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
EURJPY Hits Major Weekly Supply | Is the Bull Run Over?EUR/JPY – Institutional Macro Context (COT) EUR (Euro) Non-commercials net longs increased by +16,146 → strong buying. Commercials added +25,799 long positions. ✅ Bias: Moderately bullish. JPY (Japanese Yen) Non-commercials decreased longs by -4,432. Commercials cut -20,405 long contracts. ❌ Bias: Bearish pressure remains on JPY. Conclusion (COT): EUR remains fundamentally strong, JPY structurally weak. Institutional flows favor long EUR/JPY, but positioning is stretched. Seasonality (July) EURJPY shows strong bullish seasonality in July, especially over the 2Y and 5Y averages (+1.03% and +0.66% respectively). ✅ Seasonality bias: Bullish. Retail Sentiment 89% of traders are short on EUR/JPY. Contrarian bias = bullish confirmation. Technical Analysis (Weekly View) Price is pushing into a major weekly supply zone around 172.50–173.00. RSI still elevated but showing signs of weakening momentum. Potential double top structure forming in confluence with liquidity grab. First downside target sits around 169.50 (daily demand zone). Awaiting a reaction in supply and confirmation for short. Trading Plan (Top-Down) Wait for price to reject the 172.50–173.00 area Watch for bearish confirmation on Daily (engulfing or lower high) Target: 169.50 zone Risk: tight above 173.20 (invalidating supply zone)
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
Smart Money Reloading: Will EUR/USD Explode from Demand Zone?📊 Technical Context (Daily) EUR/USD is currently in a corrective phase following the strong June rebound from the 1.1450 area, which culminated in a high near the 1.1850 supply zone. The recent bearish move has pushed the pair back into a key demand area between 1.1450 and 1.1550, a zone that has acted as support multiple times in the past. The latest weekly candle shows a potential bullish exhaustion signal (long lower wick), with the RSI hovering in oversold territory. 📌 Primary scenario: Possible consolidation above 1.1550 followed by a bullish continuation toward 1.1750–1.1800. 📌 Alternative scenario: Break of the recent lows could lead to a deeper retest of the 1.1350 zone. 📈 COT (Commitment of Traders) Non-commercial positioning shows growing bullish interest in the euro: EUR: +971 new longs, -6,654 shorts → strong increase in net long exposure. USD Index: -267 longs, +92 spreads → signs of institutional indecision on the dollar. This suggests a favorable shift toward the euro by smart money. 💡 Retail Sentiment Retail traders remain heavily short on EUR/USD (63% short) with an average entry price of 1.1579. This reinforces the contrarian bullish case, as retail traders are trapped short in a potential reversal zone. 📆 Seasonality Historically, July has been a bullish month for EUR/USD: ➕ 2Y average return: +0.0287 ➕ 5Y average return: +0.0166 This supports a seasonal bullish bias aligning with the current technical setup. ✅ Operational Outlook EUR/USD is trading at a technically and macroeconomically significant area. The confluence of: Weekly demand zone being tested RSI in oversold conditions COT positioning favoring the euro Retail sentiment skewed short Bullish seasonality …makes a bullish bounce plausible in the coming weeks, with a first target at 1.1750. Invalidation level below 1.1450. 📌 Bias: Moderately Bullish 📍 Technical Activation Zone: Above 1.1550 with confirmed bullish price action
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1