Does The IOTA Chart Tell Us We're Near An Alt Cycle?I made a recent post about my good calls and bad calls, but I want to highlight another one of my bad calls: That the alt market would boom and take more of Bitcoin's dominance. The majority of the market actually expected this, but it has not happened. In fact, Bitcoin dominance has been increasing since it broke out.
What's interesting is that even the alts that look very bearish against Bitcoin look pretty bullish on their USD charts. Take my recent XLM post for example, or even Ethereum. This analysis is not necessarily a trade setup (although IOTA could easily double up from here if it reverses). I'm just looking at the fact that IOTA, being one of the worst performers recently, is inching closer to its historical bottom. it also broke out of its logarithmic downtrend and retested it as support. WTC did the same thing before doubling up on its Bitcoin ratio. If you look at the first bottom (green circle 1), there was a massive capitulation wick before it went on its run. It's possible this will happen again with a number of altcoins very soon, so people likely have some very low buy orders set. Some coins will not have these sorts of wicks, so it's really a gamble, if you believe we will have another altcoin cycle.
As I've been mentioning in recent analyses, if big/mid-cap altcoins do not show signs of life soon, the market will not be playing out how I thought it would (or many thought it would). I think it would actually increase the likelihood that Bitcoin would drop, since people will start questioning the validity of the space. NANO continues to do relatively well, but that's also because people see it as a possible alternative to Bitcoin. However, there's no reason to panic yet, since the USD prices of most alts look healthy.
I'm VERY interested to see how this plays out. If it occurs like prior cycles, selling alts right now would be selling them close to potential bottoms of their cycles against Bitcoin. Traders will be traders, and indicators are showing that a lot of these coins are at strong buying levels. However, the lack of any bounces so far is concerning. In that case, there could be some downside for some, but I'm going to wait and see what happens. Fundamentally, there doesn't seem to be a reason for some well-supported altcoins to never recover. There is a possibility that Bitcoin will just completely take over, but I'd find that hard to believe, given the advancements many altcoins have over Bitcoin. Bitcoin will remain a somewhat decent payment method and a solid store of value either way. Regardless, I'm happy with my long term entries. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
This is NOT financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
