Nasdaq Composite Index, IXIC, Start of a New Bull MarketIt doesn't get more simple than looking at this Monthly Chart going back over a decade. You can clearly see the incredible uptrend and the True Strength Index, although having shown a bearish divergence since Jan.2022, the TSI has barely broken the Centre line and is now about to turn back above. This New Bull Market should last through to the end of 2014. Just waiting for confirmation, and that will happen in June.
Nasdaq Composite Index CFD
nasdaq 🌊Greetings,
A mirror to my tableau painted for Bitcoin,
I surmise that the Nasdaq is engaged in the theatrical rendition of a cycle degree fourth wave.
Historically,
these fourth waves are prone to a tactical withdrawal into the realm of the prior degree wave four territory.
In this distinct instance, the territory in question lurks in close proximity to the abysmal pits of the pandemic nadir.
A bullish harbinger would manifest should the Nasdaq maintain an altitude above these pandemic depths for the duration of this bear market.
If such a trend is confirmed, i will dare to anticipate an audacious ascent to the lofty summit of $30,000 as we voyage through the decade towards the 2030 agi revolution.
---
w4 - $8,100
w5 - $30,000
☿
BTC = GOLD/DXYHi,
DXY (Dollar Strength Index) / GOLD compares USD's performance against the number 1 most correlated asset with BTC --> Gold . DXY is negatively correlated with BTC . The idea is when DXY/GOLD is bullish - USD rises , GOLD falls or both ; which is bearish for BTC . When DXY/GOLD is bearish - USD falls , GOLD rises , or both ; which is bullish for BTC . This theory is in line with both assets' historic correlation with Bitcoin .
Since DXY/GOLD's bearish breakout attempt out of the yellow support line on the 1st of April , BTC had a strong bullish sentiment . Nevertheless, since May 16th DXY/GOLD failed to retest to the downside and has returned above the yellow support. Moreover, it rapidly spiked up to its crucial downward-sloping yellow resistance line, as BTC dropped in line with the theory.
My personal outlook in the short term is bullish for the spread graph and therefore bearish for BTC .
3 main reasons why:
Before full FOREX stability, I expect major economies to be politically focused on their currency strengthening , one side prioritizing de-dollarisation and the other re-dollarisation .
Inflationary demand shock is unlikely to hit the safe heaven markets (particularly gold ) any harder than it already did.
Historically years/months which are close to the start of heavy recessions have often been bullish , making recent equity and crypto gains hopeless .
Both graphs zoomed out:
BTC up close:
Thank you for your time. Please do share your opinion, I would love to improve this theory further.
Crypto BreakoutThere is a breakout to the upside shown by the downward-sloping white channel. This marks the beginning of the bull run.
The graph is adjusted to volatility accounting from coins' dominance, and economic changes (through accounting for dollar, gold, and bond movements).
This graph is universal, use the equation or the graph as you see fit. The dollar value of Bitcoin can be tricky to trace from the graph. I'd recommend translating values to BTCUSD by estimating the %movements and finding the nearest most significant psychological levels. Don't have to be psychological levels, these have just worked better in the past.
TP (blue line): 35,000
SL: 25,400
Tipple Top or Dead Cat BounceWe're taking a look at Apple here. This ticker has been known as a quality stock that investors flock when other tech stocks take a hit.
MACD is playing right there in the middle and this could go either way. Money Flow Index is showing that there could be more up to go.
Markets have been rocked by the recent banking crisis that is still not over. We're now learning of First Republic continually collapsing, even with backstops and liquidity pledges from big banks. Perhaps this crisis isn't over yet, and with bets of a 25 basis point hike Wednesday, this could snowball into a bigger crisis, but it's one to watch. Central banks are doing all they can to keep this bubble alive, but with declining economies, it's now a matter of time.
Manufacturing, retail, housing, autos, are all down, and continuing downward. Joblessness claims continue upward. Layoffs are increasing. You know how it goes... thoughts?
NASDAQ to see a temporary move lower?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12892 (stop at 12822)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 6 days.
Bespoke support is located at 12892.
A move to 13153 will form an intraday bearish Gartley pattern.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 13153 and 13235
Resistance: 13100 / 13153 / 13236
Support: 12892 / 12848 / 12650
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nasdaq to find support at previous highs?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12829 (stop at 12694)
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 13360.
Continued downward momentum from 13238 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday.
The move lower is mixed and volatile, common in corrective sequences.
Bespoke support is located at 12829.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 13159 and 13249
Resistance: 13238 / 13360 / 13734
Support: 12829 / 12649 / 12483
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nasdaq to see a higher correction?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12677 (stop at 12577)
Traded to the highest level in 30 weeks.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Bespoke support is located at 12677.
12682 has been pivotal.
Our profit targets will be 12927 and 12977
Resistance: 13025 / 13200 / 13350
Support: 12677 / 12655 / 12513
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Is another bad earnings season upon us? In early February 2023, we outlined how earnings recession was becoming more apparent in the tech sector, with a myriad of companies reporting massive declines in net profit on a yearly basis for 2022. Now, with the upcoming earnings season for the first quarter of 2023, we do not expect the corporate figures to get any better. In fact, we anticipate further declines in corporate profits, more outlook downgrades, and higher operating costs for many tech companies. As a result, we think this season will bring more uncertainty into the market and fortify the notion of unraveling recession in the U.S. economy.
As for the short-term, we are unsure how much higher QQQ can go. Therefore we will pay close attention to the price action and volume. At the same time, we will observe QQQ’s ability to hold above the immediate support at $313.68. It will be bullish if it manages to stay above this level. However, a breakdown below it may indicate a reversal on the horizon; in such case, we will observe Support 1 at $310.08 and its ability to stop a price decline. Regarding the upside, we will watch Resistance 1 and Resistance 2 at $321.51 and $334.42.
Beyond these short-term and medium-term fluctuations, our outlook remains unchanged. With worsening data in the U.S. economy, we expect something to snap down the road, causing QQQ to revisit its 2022 lows. Our assessment comes from the fact that the market is currently pricing in multiple rate cuts by the end of 2023. However, we do not think the FED will be able to deliver them with persistently high inflation; as a matter of fact, even Jerome Powell dismissed any plans for rate cuts in 2023 during his last FOMC press conference. Moreover, as if it was not enough, the median forecast for the FED funds rate is still above the current rate, suggesting that interest rates should be higher than they are right now. Similarly worrying is FED’s unemployment forecast, which implies a recession since, historically, each 1% increase in unemployment was accompanied by one.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of QQQ. Red and green arrows depict the relationship between the price and volume. While the recent drop in volume might suggest a decline in selling pressure (after the selloff between February and March 2023), it can also indicate the evaporation of buyers near the current price levels. In general, declining volume and the rising price is questionable development. Therefore, we will keep an eye on this in the following days to get more clues about the whole picture.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish (weak trend)
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ rally to stall at current highs?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 12920 (stop at 13090)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 4 days.
The 161.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 12304 from 12972 to 12559.
Bespoke support is located at 12277.
Selling spikes offers good risk/reward.
The bias remains mildly bearish but there is scope for a move in either direction at the open.
Our profit targets will be 12510 and 12440
Resistance: 12920 / 12972 / 13360
Support: 12559 / 12305 / 12280
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
March 31 - BTC, SPX, DXY31st of March has consistently been either: a sharp turning point, a spike in trend action or a calling for a long-term trend reversal. S&P 500 and Nasdaq have followed this odd tendency correspondingly. For a few significant reasons below, I anticipate this year's 31st of March will astonish many of us.
Distinct Timing:
Alignment with KEY economic data readings:
--> Core PCE Price Index (MoM) is the reading. CNN on this index: "PCE, specifically the core measurement, is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, since it provides a more complete picture of costs for consumers." Currently, it is undeniably the most significant factor which will drive markets to new equilibriums. Factors including: markets' indecisiveness (particularly large institutions); consistent past increases in the core PCE; and unexpectedly high most recent inflation reading in the UK (actual 10.4 vs expected 9.7) - do not make the next reading seem promising for bulls.
--> Eurozone inflation level will be vital, partly due to the mentioned recent surprise from UK's inflation reading. As this could potentially clarify whether the unexpected reading arose from global or solely UK-related factors.
Date Alignment:
1/ Last day of the month
2/ Last day of the working week (Friday)
3/ And of course, the day is March 31st :)
If you have been following my channel you know how much I love spread graphs. Check out the spread chart's indicators (including 50 SMA, 50 EMA, 200 SMA, and 200 EMA) and its formula below.
Same graph (W):
Same graph (M):
The formula:
CRYPTOCAP:BTC*(TVC:GOLD*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y)*(TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y)+10))^-1
Thanks for your time guys! If not for some comments in my last post, I wouldn't have found an error in the formula! So, please comment with any questions, ideas and opinions.
Financial Crisis 2023 Firstly,
September 2007 - Lehman Brothers collapse
March 2023 - Silicon Valley Bank collapse
Asset correlations (bottom pane):
Gold ( red ) - on a slow rise in 2007, same as today
Dollar strength ( blue ) - bearish in 2007, same as today
Nasdaq (orange) - bearish in 2007, same as today
Indicators' inference :
The top pane shows a logarithmic version of an indicator called MACD leader (zero lag). 2006 - 2007 and 2022 - 2023 have so far been the only years which produce inconclusive monthly signals since 1988.
The middle pane's aim is to signal simultaneous movements of securities and spread graph equations. Each line represents the correlation coefficient between the main chart and a financial instrument. Spread graphs attempt to illustrate peaks in inflows/outflows from equities --> safe heavens through correlation.
Similar to spread graph equations, the idea of accounting for the movement of capital to different assets was applied to make the main chart:
TVC:IXIC*10000000*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+5)*TVC:GOLD)^-1
Finally,
Current Retest(D):
Same chart - Longer Period (3M):
Feel free to drop a question. Thanks for your time!
Rare Tesla Chart Just AppearedA rare perfect fractal chart of Tesla just appeared. In this video, I explain that while it may be bullish in the short term, the long-term chart looks quite ominous.
Link to my TradingView post on Advanced Bull Flag Concepts:
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Earnings recession is becoming more apparentFollowing the FOMC’s rate hike, markets continued to rally yesterday until the closing bell when tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple reported their earnings. Bleak numbers poured cold water on a rally, and in after-market trading, Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 2.5%. However, this move quickly recovered, highlighting the market's growing fragility. With VIX near yearly lows and now evident earnings recession, we will seek a decline in volume accompanying the rising price to suggest a rally’s exhaustion.
During the summer of 2022, we noted that declining corporate earnings and outlook downgrades in 3Q22 and 4Q22 would confirm our bearish thesis about the market progressing deeper into recession. With this being reflected in the data, we will pay very close attention to labor market data, which lags behind other indicators. To further confirm our bearish thesis, we want to see a pick-up in unemployment and small business bankruptcies, which will put the current mainstream narrative about “soft-landing” to the test (together with the FED not cutting rates).
Alphabet - full-year 2022 results.
Net income = $59.97 billion
(vs. net income of $76.03 billion in 2021; -21.1% YoY)
Operating income = $74.84 billion
(vs. $78.71 billion in 2021; -4.9% YoY)
Revenue = $282.83 billion
(vs. $257.63 billion in 2021; +9.8% YoY)
Alphabet disclosed that it expects to incur (in 1Q23) employee severance and related charges of $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion in relation to its layoffs of 12 000 people announced in January 2023. Additionally, it anticipates exit costs in regard to office space reductions of approximately $0.5 billion during that same quarter. Furthermore, the company expects a significant reduction in the depreciation of its equipment and servers throughout the entire year 2023.
Amazon - full-year 2022 results.
Net loss = $-2.7 billion
(vs. net income of $33.4 billion in 2021; -108% YoY)
Operating income = $12.2 billion
(vs. $24.9 billion in 2021; -51% YoY)
Net sales = $514 billion
(vs. $469.8 billion in 2021; +9.4% YoY)
Amazon saw a massive drop in net income (YoY) in 2022, from $33.4 billion to a net loss of $2.7 billion. The company expects its net sales to drop by more than 15% in 1Q23 (vs. the previous quarter) and suffer unfavorable impacts from exchange rates.
Apple - 1st quarter FY2023
Net income = $29.98 billion
(vs. $34.63 billion a year ago; -13.4%)
Net sales = $117.2 billion
(vs. $123.9 billion a year ago; -5.4% YoY)
Operating income = $36.01 billion
(vs. $41.48 billion a year ago; -13.2% YoY)
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. At the moment, the price deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, making a case for the retracement. A breakout below Support 1 will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Contrarily, a breakout above Resistance 1 will be bullish.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of QQQ. The yellow arrow hints at bullish volume growth. A decline in volume accompanying the rising price will hint at declining momentum and potential trend reversal.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq is on the moveUS composite index shows that short term strong economy and inflation would moist the market.
It means short term buying opportunity is ahead right now.
Tech stocks rally may start soon.
My target is 12900and let's forget about the FED for now.
sometimes brave investment gives us a good profit.
Buying NASDAQ at previous swing low.NASDAQ - Intraday - We look to Buy at 12272 (stop at 12200)
Selling pressure from 12744 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 12272.
Intraday signals are far from strong.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 12448 and 12488
Resistance: 12362 / 12500 / 12744
Support: 12272 / 12200 / 11855
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Catching Nasdaq on stem dips.NASDAQ - Intraday - We look to Buy at 12404 (stop at 12293)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 9 days.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
A sequence of intraday higher highs and lows has been posted.
Bespoke support is located at 12383.
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 13347.
Our profit targets will be 12688 and 12738
Resistance: 12700 / 12820 / 13347
Support: 12383 / 12201 / 11845
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
☘️ NASDAQ - 14500 a Doable Target 🎬🍿History is Bullish on Nasdaq:
The Nasdaq-100 index is home to 100 of the largest technology companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It had a miserable year in 2022, declining by 33% as investors trimmed their bets on the high-growth tech sector.
But based on the annual returns of the Nasdaq-100 dating back to 1986, consecutive down years are incredibly rare. In fact, the index has only fallen two years in a row on one occasion -- during the dot-com crash between 2000 and 2002.
While the current environment poses its own unique challenges like red-hot inflation and rapidly rising interest rates, there's a likelihood that, based on history alone, the Nasdaq could be set for a bumper 2023.
That's because the index has delivered an average return of 51% in the first positive year following a loss, and given the rarity of consecutive declines, the odds suggest 2023 is likely to be green. But investors will need to see economic headwinds subside, and there are already some early signs that's happening.
US economy is doing just great and fears of economic troubles in China and Europe are shrinking by the day, despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Technology keeps becoming more dominant in every day life and AI is offering possibilities to everyone..especially the big Nasdaq Giants.
Optimistic and Bullish here, despite the Rate hikes (another 2-maybe 3 small ones)
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
How i called the ATHs:






















