It's high time we accept the new reality of the inverted reality. The week of July 25th was perhaps one of the most volatile in a long time. Why? We had CPI report, earnings, and Fed Rate Hike.
What did volatility indecies like UVXY do? They sold off. It doesn't take too much logic and common sense to see something egregiously fraudulent is taking place when...
It seems like the US Dollar Index has peaked (as of now) at 108 which pushed gold and silver down drastically. But we could be on the verge of a massive breakout in silver, back up above $25 an ounce as well as gold back above $1900.
You could start a position now incase silver continues upward or wait for DXY to fall below 100, but by then, you may miss a...
Who could have guessed markets would rally in an ocean of bad news:
Worse than expected CPI
Worse than expected PCE
Worse than expected Chicago PMI
Q2 GDP Contraction in Recession
Collapsing Home and Auto Sales
Who knew you could miss earnings, lose millions in revenue and your stock price rallies like...
We may have seen Apple hit a double-top from May's high of $151, which we hit again today. With a week of earnings, including Apple's earnings on 28th, it could go anywhere. According to their guidance they expected a slowdown, lets see how this plays out for their price.
Per economic data, it fully supports a sell off but these big cap names is what is keeping...
This scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow.
Reasons for Bull Rally
This month inflation report is cooler.
With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis...
Latest update for Apple. We may see some sort of recovery in July, which may see markets across the board move up. If we break the selling trend, it will have created a head and shoulders when selling continues downward. Again, this is a possibility, as selling might intensify.
Atlanta Fed has revised their Q2 GDP down to -1.0%, putting the US in recession. This...
S&P continues in the overall downtrend. We will continue to see bear market rallies and pull backs before continuing lower. As you can see, it's been lower lows and lower highs. If you listen to mainstream channels like CNBC or Bloomberg, it's always a bottom when stocks move upward but selling continues.
I noticed when the mainstream says something the opposite...
A new update for Apple. We hit all of our targets with "Bitten Apple" chart. We saw this bounce coming. The market sold off too steep too fast, and we can always expect a pull back on these steep sell offs. This bear market rally may continue for a few more days before another wave of selling resumes.
The data supports a bear market and recession. The data...
It looks like we should have short term rally. RSI is way oversold. MACD is still bearish and the long term trend is bearish. This is not a company you want to hold in an economic downturn.
- Long Term Support is $48 area.
- Citi Downgraded BestBuy $65
We see a short squeeze after Citi's downgrade as expected. Regardless the market is in a downtrend.
Apple based on current 119D movement. I still believe Apple is heading below $100 this year. It took a tad longer to see a drop because of corporate buybacks but that wont change the overall outlook for Apple.
Apple's price move from 2018 downward coincides with the Feds tapering. The August 2019 rally also coincides directly with the Fed increasing QE in August...
Assuming all of the economic data released, as well as external factors from Fed to geopolitics we can assume a continued fall. Key data points:
Dropped 20.9% in 119D
Using this data, as well as the Moving Average, we can see the S&P falling below 2,500 by years end (1700-2200) area. MACD has also crossed. The S&P was the index that held up the best which...
Bitcoin 1D is almost oversold. A first target would be $42,000. Resistance is $45,000 and $47,000. There just doesn't seem to be enough steam for a breakout. Bitcoin's popularity is already maxed out and the investor is struggling according to the economic data. Being that Bitcoin moves with the equity market, we could see bitcoin take a tumble.
The sell off that started in December 2021 and January 2022 was thought of the "crash" that most logical analyst and economist are waiting for. It was illogical for markets not only recover the March 2020 sell off but set a new ATH during a year which saw the largest unemployment event also a pandemic and recession. The rally we know was Fed induced stimulus...
The rally of mid-March was fueled by Corporate Buy Backs. Retail investors, Hedges, and Institutions are still net sellers. QE per the Fed officially "ended" today. The consumer is in worse shape yet again and this will reflect in retail soon as people don't need a new phone, laptop every year and switch to every other or two years. Ironic though that Apple hasn't...
It looks like we may see a rally this week. The markets are oversold and we may see a few more days perhaps week of rallying. MACD for the 1D is showing that Apple could move higher. Unfortunately, the MACD on the 1M continues to edge closer to crossing, so the possible rally will be short lived.
If we can not break resistance...
Where to begin? In my history of learning, reading, trading, analyzing, I have never seen a market more manipulated and completely disconnected not only from the economy, but reality.
We have come to a time in our society where economic data no longer has ANY impact on equities. We witness the week of Feb 7th till today, Feb 16th a release of horrible economic...
What does the future bring in terms of Gold? One might say, if the markets and economy collapses, gold will rise as people flood to safety. This is both true and not. Take a look at gold during the biggest economic turmoil events in the passed 20-years. Specifically, 2008 Great Recession and 2020 Pandemic Collapse.
Both 2008 and 2020 share the same moves....
Revisiting Apple, these are some short term prices we can see. If we price Apple based on the economic data, we can see Apple decline. If we see Apple based on QE, we can see one more push towards resistance (highly doubtful).
$160-165 (yellow dotted trend line)
The 200MA is 150.00