About meChart maker through economic data, trends, demographics, societal and geopolitical events. Anyone who says they have it right 100% is wrong. We do our best, but no one has a 100% proven chart record.
It seems like markets have found themselves face to face with reality. The bear market rally seems to have run out of steam due to the amounting economic and inflationary data. Simply put, I do not think markets can rally from here, based on:
RSI overbought on 1W
MACD Crossed on 1W
Food prices are at 18 moth highs according to UN.
If we use the Elliots Wave like in 2022, this is how it may play out. The selling has been steep enough to apply the Elliots Wave here.
Catalysts for Oct is a hotter than expected CPI/PPI, especially with fuel inflation rising and fuel prices rising back near record highs.
Bearish Technicals: (1-Week)
On the contrary, these moves...
Checking some TA, which I should have done more thoroughly on SPY, I would have seen the obvious TA screaming we go higher.
Both the SPY and DJI technicals are stating we go higher. RSI, MACD, MFI, and 50MA are pointing to higher moves in the market. In fact, taking a look at the 10YR is another confirmation of where we're heading.
This scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow.
Reasons for Bull Rally
This month inflation report is cooler.
With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis...
Taking a look into Apple, we have some indicators that we may see some selling here soon. It has formed a descending channel.
- MACD is in an average area of a bullish move before a sell off.
- RSI slightly surpassed the last high of Aug 2022 but it is still not overbought yet, we simply have room to head down if it does.
- MFI (Money Flow Index)...
I keep hearing an awful lot about bitcoin is the future, that bitcoin will skyrocket to $100,000 which makes no sense because they fail to realize the amount of money that would take. I wonder where the money comes from...? In this chart, I will give my take on Bitcoin and where I see it going. If I am wrong, I gladly accept it but I highly doubt that I will be....
In supplementation to my most recent chart, "In bitcoin we trust" I wanted to make my point even more clear by adding the Fed Balance Sheet.
As you can see, it has been and always was the Fed pumping every asset. March 2020, the Balance Sheet exploded higher, as did stocks and bitcoin/crypto market.
Prepare for anything because they're on to something. This just...
Where to begin. I think it's about time investors started thinking more seriously at the immensity of the financial problems sitting at the door step, and the worst part is that it isn't going away if we ignore it.
The Fed has created the largest bubble in US history. In 2008, when the banks gambled and lost, the Fed stepped in with new measures to "stop" the...
The sell off that started in December 2021 and January 2022 was thought of the "crash" that most logical analyst and economist are waiting for. It was illogical for markets not only recover the March 2020 sell off but set a new ATH during a year which saw the largest unemployment event also a pandemic and recession. The rally we know was Fed induced stimulus...
Bitcoin 1D is almost oversold. A first target would be $42,000. Resistance is $45,000 and $47,000. There just doesn't seem to be enough steam for a breakout. Bitcoin's popularity is already maxed out and the investor is struggling according to the economic data. Being that Bitcoin moves with the equity market, we could see bitcoin take a tumble.
Assuming all of the economic data released, as well as external factors from Fed to geopolitics we can assume a continued fall. Key data points:
Dropped 20.9% in 119D
Using this data, as well as the Moving Average, we can see the S&P falling below 2,500 by years end (1700-2200) area. MACD has also crossed. The S&P was the index that held up the best which...
Apple based on current 119D movement. I still believe Apple is heading below $100 this year. It took a tad longer to see a drop because of corporate buybacks but that wont change the overall outlook for Apple.
Apple's price move from 2018 downward coincides with the Feds tapering. The August 2019 rally also coincides directly with the Fed increasing QE in August...
It looks like we should have short term rally. RSI is way oversold. MACD is still bearish and the long term trend is bearish. This is not a company you want to hold in an economic downturn.
- Long Term Support is $48 area.
- Citi Downgraded BestBuy $65
We see a short squeeze after Citi's downgrade as expected. Regardless the market is in a downtrend.
A new update for Apple. We hit all of our targets with "Bitten Apple" chart. We saw this bounce coming. The market sold off too steep too fast, and we can always expect a pull back on these steep sell offs. This bear market rally may continue for a few more days before another wave of selling resumes.
The data supports a bear market and recession. The data...
S&P continues in the overall downtrend. We will continue to see bear market rallies and pull backs before continuing lower. As you can see, it's been lower lows and lower highs. If you listen to mainstream channels like CNBC or Bloomberg, it's always a bottom when stocks move upward but selling continues.
I noticed when the mainstream says something the opposite...
Latest update for Apple. We may see some sort of recovery in July, which may see markets across the board move up. If we break the selling trend, it will have created a head and shoulders when selling continues downward. Again, this is a possibility, as selling might intensify.
Atlanta Fed has revised their Q2 GDP down to -1.0%, putting the US in recession. This...
Who could have guessed markets would rally in an ocean of bad news:
Worse than expected CPI
Worse than expected PCE
Worse than expected Chicago PMI
Q2 GDP Contraction in Recession
Collapsing Home and Auto Sales
Who knew you could miss earnings, lose millions in revenue and your stock price rallies like...
It seems like the US Dollar Index has peaked (as of now) at 108 which pushed gold and silver down drastically. But we could be on the verge of a massive breakout in silver, back up above $25 an ounce as well as gold back above $1900.
You could start a position now incase silver continues upward or wait for DXY to fall below 100, but by then, you may miss a...