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J-DXY

DXY - Silent, Structure in Compression, Destiny in Expansion. ⊣ ⟁ DXY / U.S. Dollar Currency Index - TVC - (CHART: 1D) - (Aug 19, 2025). ◇ Analysis Price: 98.035. ⊣ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval - (1D): ✴️ Note: The DXY (TVC) does not provide native volume data; therefore, flow-based indicators (OBV, MFI) are substituted by ADX (14) to quantify trend strength. ▦ EMA9 - $98.139: ∴ The current price ($98.035) is positioned below the EMA9 - ($98.139), affirming short-term pressure from sellers; ∴ The slope of the EMA9 is flat to slightly downward, indicating the loss of bullish traction in the most immediate timeframe; ∴ The EMA9 is located beneath both the EMA21 and the EMA50, confirming the presence of a “bearish stacking” alignment. ✴️ Conclusion: The micro-trend remains subdued under short-term resistance. The immediate ceiling is defined at ~98.14, and failure to close above reinforces continuous seller control. ⊢ ▦ EMA21 - $98.221: ∴ The price remains below the EMA21, which represents tactical control by sellers in the intermediate horizon; ∴ The fact that EMA9 < EMA21 demonstrates that rebound attempts will likely fail beneath 98.22; ∴ The EMA21 is in direct confluence with the Bollinger Band midline, magnifying the importance of 98.22 as a structural pivot. ✴️ Conclusion: The 98.22 zone is the primary tactical battleground; daily closure above would reduce immediate bearish pressure and open short-term relief potential. ⊢ ▦ EMA50 - $98.477: ∴ The price resides below EMA50, and EMA21 is positioned below EMA50, both confirming the persistence of a downward-leaning intermediate trend; ∴ The EMA50 itself is sloping gently downward, acting as a supply zone between $98.45 / $98.50; ∴ Rejections have occurred repeatedly below the $98.5 region, validating this level as the medium-term structural ceiling. ✴️ Conclusion: The $98.45 / $98.50 range is the second barrier; only a sustained close above this threshold neutralizes the existing bearish framework. ⊢ ▦ BB (21, 2) - $96.815 / $98.221 / $99.628: ∴ Current price oscillates around the midline ($98.22) but is positioned slightly below, keeping price action inside the lower quadrant of the bands; ∴ Bandwidth is approximately 2.81 points (~2.9% of the midline), which signals suppressed volatility and relative compression; ∴ The upper band at $99.63 and the lower band at $96.82 establish the immediate operational box. ✴️ Conclusion: A compression regime dominates; the probability of false breakouts increases as long as ADX remains below threshold levels. ⊢ ▦ RSI (21, 9) - RSI 47.75 / Signal 48.17: ∴ The RSI remains below the neutral 50 line, maintaining a neutral-to-bearish bias; ∴ RSI is positioned beneath its signal line, reinforcing waning momentum; ∴ No oversold or overbought extremes are present, leaving ample room for mean-reversion moves in either direction; ∴ The RSI lost its bullish inclination after the early-August peak, revealing that bullish momentum has dissipated. ✴️ Conclusion: Relative strength is fragile and biased downward; pressure persists, though without signs of exhaustion. ⊢ ▦ MACD (9, 21, 9) - MACD Line: −0.085 | Signal: −0.082 | Spread ≈ −0.003: ∴ Both MACD line and Signal line remain below zero, sustaining the negative macro momentum regime; ∴ The spread between MACD and Signal line is marginally negative (−0.003), illustrating momentum compression and indecision; ∴ The histogram bars are shallow, suggesting the likelihood of sideways “chop” until a decisive expansion occurs; ∴ No evidence yet of either bullish or bearish acceleration; instead, momentum is locked in equilibrium. ✴️ Conclusion: Residual bearish momentum persists, but without traction. A valid directional impulse requires expansion of the spread. ⊢ ▦ ADX (14) - 13.22: ∴ ADX at 13.22 is significantly below the 20 threshold, confirming a non-trending market; ∴ Under low volatility and low ADX conditions, breakouts tend to fail or reverse, producing whipsaw environments; ∴ Without ADX expansion, directional signals from EMAs, RSI, or MACD lack confirmation. ✴️ Conclusion: The trend is weak; consolidation dominates. Breakouts require ADX above 20 for validation. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle: ∴ The structural configuration of the moving averages (Price < EMA9 < EMA21 < EMA50) defines a layered bearish stacking, emphasizing that control remains under sellers until the price successfully reclaims successive thresholds; ∴ The triple resistance crown ($98.14 / $98.22 / $98.50) represents the immediate fortress overhead. Until pierced, rallies remain corrective rather than structural; ∴ The Bollinger Band compression in combination with ADX = 13.22 reflects a regime of latent instability: volatility is contracted, energy is being stored, and the market is poised for a sharp directional move once equilibrium breaks; ∴ Mapping of levels: Support zones: $97.94 (recent intraday floor) -> $96.82 (lower Bollinger band); Resistance zones: $98.22 (BB midline + EMA21 pivot) -> $98.45 / $98.50 (EMA50 zone) -> $99.63 (BB upper). ∴ Trigger mechanics (Daily): Bullish relief scenario: A daily close above $98.22 exposes a test of $98.45 / $98.50. A confirmed structural shift requires closure above $98.50 with simultaneous ADX rising above 20, projecting extension toward $98.80 -> $99.63; Bearish continuation scenario: A breakdown below $97.94 expands the downside toward $96.82. Acceleration requires concurrent Bollinger Band expansion + ADX increase, validating momentum. ∴ Cross-asset implication (BTC/USD): A DXY trapped beneath $98.50 with ADX under 18 provides tactical relief for risk assets - (Bitcoin, equities). Conversely, a reclaim above $98.50 coupled with rising ADX would exert renewed pressure on Bitcoin and global risk sentiment. ✴️ Conclusion: ∴ The DXY is operating in a compression regime with light bearish bias, encased beneath the triple-layered resistance of $98.22 and $98.50; ∴ Until the index secures a daily close above $98.50 supported by a strengthening ADX, the prevailing outlook remains range-to-down, targeting $97.94 and potentially $96.82; ∴ Should the crown of resistance be pierced with confirmed directional strength, the Dollar Index would advance toward $98.80 / $99.63, transitioning the macro background toward “risk-off” and imposing significant headwinds on Bitcoin and correlated assets. ⊢ 𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation - DXY (1D, Aug 19, 2025): ∴ The Dollar Index remains imprisoned beneath its triple crown of resistance ($98.14 -> $98.22 -> $98.50). Each layer functions not as mere numbers, but as thresholds of control - the fortress where sellers guard the path forward; ∴ Momentum structures (RSI at $47.75, MACD compressed below zero, ADX at $13.22) whisper of weak conviction, a battlefield where neither camp advances decisively. Volatility compresses, energy coils. The silence of the bands is not peace; it is the breath before release. ∴ Supports lie at $97.94 and $96.82 - the fragile floor where weakness exposes the Index to further descent. Resistances culminate in the $99.63 upper band - the bastion to be conquered should strength return. ✴️ Philosophical Seal: Like the Stoic who tests virtue in adversity, the DXY now tests resolve in compression. Its stillness is deceptive - for beneath equilibrium, forces accumulate. The wise trader, like the Stoic, does not chase the noise of indecision; he prepares, unmoved, for the inevitable expansion. ⊢ ✦ Structure - DXY (1D, Aug 19, 2025): ∴ Bearish Stacking Alignment: Price $98.035 resides below EMA9 $98.139, which is below EMA21 $98.221, both beneath EMA50 $98.477. The moving averages align in descending order, sealing short-, mid-, and intermediate-term control under sellers; ∴ Compression Regime: Bollinger Bands narrowed to $96.815 / $99.628, with midline at $98.221. Volatility is contracted, reflecting equilibrium. The silence before expansion governs this phase; ∴ Momentum Exhaustion: RSI at 47.75 and MACD line at −0.085 with signal −0.082 indicate weakening drive, locked in indecision. ADX 13.22 confirms absence of a dominant directional force. ∴ Critical Thresholds: • Support: $97.94 -> $96.82; • Resistance: $98.22 -> $98.45–$98.50 -> $99.63; These levels form the sacred geometry of the Dollar’s battlefield. ✴️ Structural Seal: The DXY is architected in a descending yet compressed formation - a fortress of resistance above, fragile floors below. Until ADX rises and one side seizes momentum, the Index drifts in suspended balance, storing potential for decisive rupture. ⊢ · Cryptorvm Dominvs · MAGISTER ARCANVM · Vox Primordialis · · Dominivm Cardo Gyratio Omnivm · Silence precedes the next force. Structure is sacred · ⊢
TVC:DXY
by Magister_Arcanvm
DXY Comprehensive AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading around 98.14, struggling near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 98.33, where strong resistance has capped further upside. The RSI shows hidden bearish divergence, signaling potential weakness despite the recent bounce. Price action remains within a broader downtrend channel, and repeated failures to sustain above 98.30 indicate fading bullish momentum. Immediate support is seen near 98.00, any bearish break out will lead the prices towards 97.79 (Fib 0.786), followed by 97.50, which could attract sellers if broken. On the upside, only a decisive break above 98.33–98.70 would shift intraday sentiment bullish toward 99.08. For today, the bias leans bearish as long as DXY trades below 98.30, with intraday traders likely eyeing short setups on rejection patterns targeting the lower supports.
FXOPEN:DXYShort
by Nadia_farhat
DXY Consolidates SidewaysTVC:DXY continues to consolidate and be held between a Resistance and Support Between: Resistance @ 98.2 - 98.3 Support @ 97.75 - 97.6 If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Resistance, this will see the USD gain strength temporarily til the Next Resistance Level @ 98.5 - 98.95 If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Support, this will see the USD lose strength temporarily til the Next Support Level @ 97.3 - 97.1 Fundamentally, Tariffs will continue to effect the underlying inflation issue USD deals with along with expectations gaining of not only 1 but a few Interest Cuts could come from the Federal Reserve before the end of the year! This could severely weaken USD!
TVC:DXY
by Novi_Fibonacci
Gold Futures | Accumulation in Play – Watching for Manipulation Gold Futures are currently sitting in the Accumulation phase of an AMD sequence. Price is ranging just above the Daily/H4 FVG demand zone (3350–3360) after rejecting supply at 3387–3394. Here’s what I’m watching: Accumulation: Current consolidation between 3368–3387. Manipulation: A clean sweep of yesterday’s low (3368) would complete this phase. Distribution: If manipulation plays out, I’ll look for price to rotate higher, targeting 3387 → 3404 and potentially higher levels. ⚖️ Bias: Waiting for liquidity run before positioning long. No need to rush — the sweep is the confirmation. Until then, patient observation.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Are U.S. Dollar Bears getting exhausted?Still holding on to my EUR/USD short positions since late June/early July and it’s been quite a game of patience at this point but as I have been analyzing the U.S. Dollar for the past few months, from a purely technical analysis perspective, I’m currently still seeing the U.S. Dollar potentially carving out a bottom here and make a run to re-visit the 100 - 102 price zone. I know markets are highly anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cute in September but with inflation still sticking around, it may not be such a sure thing just yet. All eyeballs and ears will be on tap for Powell’s speech on Friday. Technical analysis signals: • Descending Broadening/Expanding Wedge (Bullish Pattern) • MACD Histogram showing a sign of potential bearish exhaustion
ICEUS:DXYLong
by InternalTraderNYC
Gold XAUUSD Intra-Day Setup 18.08.2025Price is currently trading within a descending channel. A key breakout zone is forming. If price breaks above 3355/58 and retests successfully, it opens room toward the 3381 level. Conversely, if price breaks below 3345/48 and retests, downside continuation may occur toward the 3325 area. Additional View: Momentum shows early signs of bullish exhaustion after touching the channel top, but overall, the structure still favors trend continuation inside the channel until a decisive breakout is confirmed. Hence, confirmation after breakout/retest is crucial before entry. Trading Signals: Buy Setup: Above 3355/58 with retest confirmation → Target 3381, Stop-Loss below 3344 Sell Setup: Below 3345/48 with retest confirmation → Target 3325, Stop-Loss above 3355.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by QuinnReed_Charts
USDZAR - Forecast, Outlook and Market WatchHello fellow Market Watchers ☕ Today I'll take a top-view look at the USDZAR chart. And since I am in South Africa, this pair is of particular interest to me. Now recently, the US introduced a 10% baseline tariff on most imports and lifted metals tariffs to 25%. Additionally, citrus, nuts, grapes and wine have been subjected to 30% duties since Aug. 7. There is no doubt that in the short term, this will cause ripple effects throughout the economy but in the long run, South Africa will find new trading partners - this is how trade works. This will likely extend to Asian markets. The priority is to export more to China, where duty-free access has already been secured for five types of fruit (unsure which fruits these are). South Africa will continue to strengthen ties with other countries to lessen reliance on the US for exports. Therefore, this is merely a short term hurdle. From the monthly perspective, we see a clear peak. A double top marks the price where sellers are ready to dominate: Although we've had two bearish micro-cycles (lasting just over two years and a year respectively), the multiyear trend has been bullish - almost "up only" since August 2011. July US inflation cooled, so markets still expect the Fed to cut rates in September. Futures point to a strong chance of a 25 bps cut, and the dollar has lost some momentum. When rate-cut odds rise and inflation-adjusted US bond yields fall, higher-beta currencies like the rand often firm up. However on a bullish note for the Rand, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the repo to 7.00% in July and said it aims at the bottom of the 3–6% target band, while June CPI printed 3.0%. This is optimistic news for the Rand, and further supports a decline on the chart. What to watch next • Fed path into September. Base case: a 25 bps cut. • DXY (the US dollar index). Softer DXY tends to help ZAR. • US real yields from the Treasury’s par real yield curve. Drifting lower is rand-friendly. • Powell at Jackson Hole. A tougher tone on inflation could cap rand gains. 10 Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security - Lower US real yields usually lift demand for higher-yielding EM assets, leading to Rand strengthening. DXY - A softer DXY = less broad USD strength, ZAR increases/strengthens Gold and Platinum - If these increase, that supports SA's exports and likely helps the Rand considering the export volume. It should be noted that platinum gains will be limited by the new metal tariff at 25% if exporting to the US . In 2023, South Africa exported approximately $16.2 billion worth of platinum globally. Of this, about $3.42 billion went to the US. That works out to roughly 21% of South Africa’s total platinum exports being destined for the U.S. I asked my friend GPT to put it in a table and got this helpful result: So to summarize: As of today (18 Aug 2025), markets still lean toward a Fed rate cut in September, with odds around the mid-80s, which has taken some heat out of the dollar and kept real Treasury yields anchored near ~1.9%—a mix that’s usually rand-friendly. Locally, SARB’s July move left the repo at 7.00% while June CPI printed 3.0%, so South Africa still offers positive real carry. Firm gold prices and subdued equity volatility also help sentiment. The main offset is trade policy risk, with the new 30% US tariff on many South African imports clouding the export outlook and current account. Net-net, if US data stay calm into Jackson Hole, the bias tilts to a softer USD against ZAR.
Short
by BlockTechEv
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Continue to Rise?!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If it moves upwards, we can look for a short-term position to sell Bitcoin from the specified supply zone. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. Momentum in the digital assets market continues to accelerate, with Ethereum leading the charge. The cryptocurrency has surged from $1,500 in April to $4,300, marking its highest level since December 2021 and standing only 12.5% below its all-time high of $4,800. Historically, Ethereum has served as a leading indicator for the broader altcoin market, and its recent strength has fueled speculative activity across other higher-risk assets. This capital rotation is also reflected in the Bitcoin Dominance index, which measures Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market. Over the past two months, Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen from 65% to 59%, signaling a continued flow of capital into riskier assets. Last week, Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, announced that Bitcoin seized by the federal government would form the core of the nation’s strategic Bitcoin reserves, established under President Trump’s March executive order. He further noted that the Treasury is exploring budget-neutral options to acquire additional Bitcoin, aligning with the administration’s commitment to making the United States the “world’s Bitcoin superpower.” He clarified that no new cryptocurrencies would be purchased, as the reserves will rely solely on confiscated assets. Meanwhile, the balance held by Accumulator wallets—addresses that exclusively buy Bitcoin and never sell—has reached 308,150 BTC, the highest level ever recorded. Continued accumulation by these wallets implies a tightening supply in circulation and is often seen as the beginning of a new bullish phase in the market. In parallel, Bit Digital, a Nasdaq-listed company, reported a net profit in Q2 of this year despite a decline in overall revenue. This shift came as the company focused on its new treasury and Ethereum-based staking strategy. According to its quarterly report, Bit Digital generated $25.7 million in total revenue during the period, representing an 11.7% year-over-year decline. The company attributed the decrease primarily to reduced income from digital asset mining, as operations shifted toward treasury and Ethereum staking initiatives, though part of the drop was offset by growth in other business segments. During the same quarter, Bit Digital posted $14.9 million in net profit, equal to $0.07 per share, compared to a net loss of $12 million in the same period last year. CEO Sam Tabar described the quarter as “the beginning of the company’s transformation into a specialized Ethereum treasury and staking platform.” In June, Bit Digital formally announced its Ethereum strategy and began the gradual phase-out of its Bitcoin mining operations. According to Yahoo Finance data, Bit Digital’s stock fell 0.63% on Thursday to $3.19. However, despite the daily decline, the stock has risen 8.1% over the past five days and is up 8.9% year-to-date.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot, which acts as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 98.27 1st Support: 94.66 1st Support: 94.66Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
DXY Comprehensive AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) on the 4H chart remains under pressure, trading near 97.71 and holding below the key resistance zone of 98.20–98.30, aligned with the 20 SMA (middle Bollinger band) and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (97.78), signaling a firm bearish bias. Price action might continue to respect the descending trend, with recent candles showing rejection from the upper boundary and pointing toward a possible retest of 97.50–97.10 support levels. However, it will be crucial for prices to breach the fib level 0.786 and sustain lower. Bollinger Bands are moderately compressed, suggesting controlled volatility, while RSI at 42 indicates weak momentum with a hidden bearish divergence (prices making lower highs and RSI making constant highs), reinforcing downside potential. Unless the index reclaims 98.30 on strong buying, intraday traders may look for short opportunities on pullbacks, targeting 97.50 and then 97.10. With no major data releases today, technical levels are likely to drive moves, and continued dollar weakness could support risk assets like equities and commodities, particularly gold and emerging market currencies.
FXOPEN:DXYShort
by Nadia_farhat
Key Levels Set: Where Will Gold End This Race?Good morning, my friends, Gold is currently moving sideways. Let me tell you this: if gold breaks above the 3363 level and closes a candle there, the next target will be 3380 or even 3390. However, if gold breaks below 3330 with a candle close, then the target will shift to 3310 or 3300. Right now, gold is in a tight squeeze — bulls and bears are battling it out. Let’s see who wins and who puts the final stamp on this move. We’ll all witness it together. My friends, every single like you send is my biggest source of motivation to keep sharing these analyses. Thank you so much to everyone who supports me with a like.
TVC:GOLD
by TraderTilki
16
USD/CAD - Ascending Triangle (18.08.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Ascending Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3774 2nd Support – 1.3755 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
26
GC Futures – Will Bulls Defend the Daily/H4 FVG Overlap?Gold Futures opened the week pressing directly into a stacked Daily + H4 FVG demand zone (3350–3360). Price action is sitting just above this level, making it the key battleground for the week. Support: 3350 (FVG low), 3332 liquidity sweep Resistance: 3377 → 3394 (prior D-H), 3451 (M-H) Scenarios: Bounce off demand could target 3380–3394, with a reclaim opening 3420–3450. Failure here points to deeper liquidity at 3332. Asian session may set the early range, but real direction likely comes during London/NY killzones. Watching closely for reaction inside the FVG overlap.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
DXY:Key Levels and Political Events: Preparing for the Next MoveThe latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that there have been negligible changes in the behavior of commercial traders regarding the DXY. Meanwhile, retail traders have significantly reduced their long positions, cutting about 30% of their holdings to the short side. In contrast, non-commercial traders have increased their long positions by approximately 11.14%, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment: retailers appear to be leaning toward shorting the dollar, while non-commercials might be starting to accumulate long positions. Over the past week, the price rebounded at our daily demand zone, which could signal a potential continuation of the upward trend in the coming week. However, the market's next move will depend heavily on how it opens after the weekend and the market's reaction to the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting. What are your thoughts on these developments? ✅ Please share your thoughts about DXY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
8
# GBPUSD Technical Analysis & Forecast# GBPUSD Technical Analysis & Forecast **Asset**: GBP/USD **Reference Price**: 1.35557 (August 16th, 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4) **Analysis Date**: August 17, 2025 ## Executive Summary GBPUSD is positioned at a critical juncture with multiple technical confluences suggesting potential bullish continuation. The pair has shown resilience above key support levels and appears to be forming a corrective structure that may lead to higher targets. --- ## 1. ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ### Primary Count (Daily/Weekly) - **Current Position**: Gray Wave 3 (Impulsive phase) - **Sub-wave**: Orange Wave 5 active - **Structure**: Bullish trend in impulsive mode - **Completion Status**: Gray Wave 2 likely complete ### Intraday Perspective (1H-4H) - **Pattern**: Double Three (WXY) corrective structure - **Key Level**: Equal Legs zone providing support - **Blue Box Area**: Critical support confluence around 1.3480-1.3520 - **Invalidation**: Break below red X connector invalidates bullish count ### Wave Targets - **Immediate**: 1.3650-1.3700 (completion of current sub-wave) - **Extended**: 1.3850-1.4000 (major resistance confluence) --- ## 2. HARMONIC ANALYSIS ### Active Patterns **ABCD Pattern** - **Status**: Potential completion near current levels - **D Point**: Expected around 1.3480-1.3520 - **Target**: 1.3680-1.3750 (127.2% extension) **Gartley Pattern (4H)** - **Completion**: 78.6% retracement area - **Support Zone**: 1.3500-1.3550 - **Targets**: 1.3650 (38.2%), 1.3720 (61.8%) **Butterfly Formation (Daily)** - **Status**: Monitoring for completion - **Critical Zone**: 1.3480-1.3520 - **Upside Potential**: 1.3780-1.3850 --- ## 3. WYCKOFF ANALYSIS ### Current Phase Assessment **Phase**: Accumulation (Phase C - Spring Test) - **Characteristics**: Testing of support with reduced volume - **Smart Money Activity**: Accumulation at lower levels - **Market Maker Position**: Building long positions ### Key Wyckoff Levels - **Support**: 1.3480 (Last Point of Support - LPS) - **Resistance**: 1.3650 (Automatic Rally - AR) - **Breakout Target**: 1.3750+ (Sign of Strength - SOS) --- ## 4. W.D. GANN ANALYSIS ### Square of 9 Analysis **Current Position**: 1.35557 - **Next Resistance**: 1.3650 (144° angle) - **Major Resistance**: 1.3780 (180° angle) - **Support**: 1.3480 (90° angle from previous high) ### Time Cycles **Active Cycles**: - 30-day cycle: Peak expected around August 25-28, 2025 - 90-day cycle: Major turn window September 15-20, 2025 ### Gann Angles (Daily Chart) - **1x1 Angle**: Rising from 1.3200 low - **2x1 Angle**: Critical support at 1.3450 - **1x2 Angle**: Resistance at 1.3720 ### Price Forecasting **Natural Resistance Levels** (Square of 9): - 1.3610 (Minor) - 1.3680 (Moderate) - 1.3750 (Strong) - 1.3850 (Major) --- ## 5. ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO ### Cloud Analysis (Daily) - **Cloud Status**: Bullish (green cloud) - **Price Position**: Above cloud indicating uptrend - **Tenkan-sen**: 1.3520 (dynamic support) - **Kijun-sen**: 1.3480 (key support) ### Key Levels - **Cloud Top**: 1.3450 - **Cloud Bottom**: 1.3380 - **Senkou Span B**: 1.3420 (26-period ahead) ### Signals - **Bullish Crossover**: Tenkan above Kijun - **Future Cloud**: Remains bullish through September --- ## 6. JAPANESE CANDLESTICK ANALYSIS ### Recent Patterns (4H/Daily) **Doji Star Formation**: - **Location**: Near 1.3550 resistance - **Implication**: Indecision, potential reversal higher - **Confirmation**: Needed above 1.3580 **Hammer Pattern (Daily)**: - **Formation**: August 15th low - **Support**: 1.3480 area - **Bullish Bias**: If sustained above 1.3520 ### Pattern Projections - **Engulfing Pattern**: Target 1.3650-1.3680 - **Three White Soldiers**: Potential if break above 1.3580 --- ## 7. TECHNICAL INDICATORS ANALYSIS ### RSI (Relative Strength Index) **Multi-Timeframe RSI Status**: - **Daily**: 52.3 (Neutral with upward bias) - **4H**: 48.7 (Slightly oversold, bullish divergence forming) - **1H**: 45.2 (Oversold, bounce expected) ### Bollinger Bands - **Daily**: Price at lower band, squeeze formation - **4H**: Expansion phase beginning - **Target**: Upper band at 1.3720-1.3750 ### VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) - **Daily VWAP**: 1.3530 (current resistance) - **Weekly VWAP**: 1.3480 (key support) - **Deviation Bands**: +1σ at 1.3620, +2σ at 1.3680 --- ## 8. MOVING AVERAGES CONFLUENCE ### Simple Moving Averages (SMA) - **20 SMA**: 1.3540 (immediate resistance) - **50 SMA**: 1.3520 (dynamic support) - **200 SMA**: 1.3450 (major support) ### Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) - **12 EMA**: 1.3565 (short-term resistance) - **26 EMA**: 1.3535 (key pivot) - **100 EMA**: 1.3480 (confluence support) ### Weighted Moving Average (WMA) - **21 WMA**: 1.3550 (resistance to break) - **Golden Cross**: Potential if 50 WMA crosses above 200 WMA --- ## 9. MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS ### 5-Minute Chart - **Trend**: Sideways consolidation - **Support**: 1.3540 - **Resistance**: 1.3570 - **Breakout Direction**: Awaiting catalyst ### 15-Minute Chart - **Pattern**: Ascending triangle - **Breakout Target**: 1.3590-1.3610 - **Volume**: Decreasing on pullbacks (bullish) ### 30-Minute Chart - **Trend**: Bullish flag formation - **Measured Move**: 1.3650 target - **Key Level**: 1.3555 support ### 1-Hour Chart - **Elliott Wave**: Corrective Wave 4 completion - **Harmonic**: ABCD pattern near D point - **Target**: 1.3620-1.3650 ### 4-Hour Chart - **Primary Trend**: Bullish - **Correction**: Complex WXY structure - **Upside Target**: 1.3750-1.3800 ### Daily Chart - **Major Trend**: Upward - **Pattern**: Bull flag continuation - **Long-term Target**: 1.3850-1.4000 ### Weekly Chart - **Structure**: Impulsive Wave 3 - **Support**: 1.3400-1.3450 - **Resistance**: 1.3800-1.3850 ### Monthly Chart - **Trend**: Long-term bullish - **Key Resistance**: 1.4000-1.4200 - **Major Support**: 1.3200-1.3300 --- ## 10. TRADING STRATEGY & OUTLOOK ### Intraday Strategy (5M-1H) **Setup**: Buy dips approach - **Entry Zone**: 1.3540-1.3560 - **Stop Loss**: 1.3520 - **Target 1**: 1.3590 - **Target 2**: 1.3620 ### Swing Trading Strategy (4H-Daily) **Setup**: Breakout continuation - **Entry**: Above 1.3580 (confirmed breakout) - **Stop Loss**: 1.3510 - **Target 1**: 1.3680 - **Target 2**: 1.3750 - **Target 3**: 1.3850 ### Position Trading (Weekly-Monthly) **Setup**: Long-term bullish bias - **Accumulation Zone**: 1.3480-1.3550 - **Major Target**: 1.3850-1.4000 - **Risk Management**: Trail stops below key moving averages --- ## 11. KEY LEVELS SUMMARY ### Critical Support Levels 1. **1.3520** - Immediate support (Tenkan-sen, 50 SMA) 2. **1.3480** - Major support (Blue Box, Kijun-sen, 100 EMA) 3. **1.3450** - Cloud top, 200 SMA confluence 4. **1.3400** - Weekly support level ### Critical Resistance Levels 1. **1.3580** - Immediate resistance (breakout level) 2. **1.3620** - VWAP +1σ, harmonic target 3. **1.3680** - Bollinger upper band, Gann resistance 4. **1.3750** - Major confluence resistance 5. **1.3850** - Elliott Wave target, monthly resistance --- ## 12. RISK ASSESSMENT ### Bullish Scenario (Probability: 65%) - **Catalyst**: Break above 1.3580 - **Target**: 1.3750-1.3850 - **Timeline**: 2-3 weeks ### Bearish Scenario (Probability: 35%) - **Invalidation**: Break below 1.3480 - **Target**: 1.3400-1.3350 - **Timeline**: 1-2 weeks ### Key Events to Watch 1. Central bank communications 2. Economic data releases 3. Risk sentiment shifts 4. Technical breakout confirmations --- ## CONCLUSION GBPUSD is positioned for potential upside continuation based on multiple technical confluence factors. The Elliott Wave analysis suggests we're in an impulsive upward structure, while harmonic patterns indicate completion of corrective phases. Gann analysis supports higher targets with favorable time cycles approaching. **Recommended Bias**: Cautiously Bullish **Primary Strategy**: Buy dips near support, target higher levels **Risk Management**: Strict stops below key support confluences The technical picture favors patient bulls who can capitalize on the current consolidation phase for potential moves toward 1.3750-1.3850 in the coming weeks. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
by sunya
# DXY (US Dollar Index) Technical Analysis & Forecast# DXY (US Dollar Index) Technical Analysis & Forecast **Base Price:** 97.839 (August 16, 2025 - 12:55 AM) ## Executive Summary The DXY at 97.839 shows the USD in a consolidation phase near key technical levels. Multiple analytical frameworks converge around critical support/resistance zones, suggesting an imminent directional breakout within the next trading sessions. ## Japanese Candlestick Analysis ### Intraday Patterns (5M-1H) - **Current Formation:** Doji-like indecision around 97.85 level - **Key Reversal Zones:** 97.50 (Hammer potential), 98.20 (Shooting Star zone) - **Momentum Candles:** Watch for Marubozu above 98.00 or below 97.60 - **Evening Star Setup:** Three-candle reversal pattern completion around 98.15 - **Morning Star Potential:** Bullish reversal signal near 97.45 support ### Swing Patterns (4H-Monthly) - **Engulfing Patterns:** Critical at 98.50 weekly resistance and 97.00 monthly support - **Harami Cross:** Indecision pattern suggesting range-bound action - **Piercing Line/Dark Cloud:** Key reversal patterns at major S/R levels - **Three White Soldiers:** Bullish continuation above 98.00 - **Three Black Crows:** Bearish breakdown below 97.50 ## Harmonic Pattern Analysis ### M & W Formations - **Double Top (M):** Resistance confluence at 98.80-99.00 zone - **Neckline:** Critical break level at 97.25 for M-pattern completion - **Double Bottom (W):** Support structure around 96.50-96.80 - **W-Pattern Target:** Bullish objective at 99.20-99.50 on completion - **Measured Move:** M-top target 96.00, W-bottom target 99.00 ### ABCD Pattern Analysis - **Bullish ABCD:** Current structure suggests C-point at 97.20, D-target 99.80 - **Bearish ABCD:** Alternative count with D-wave completion at 96.20 - **AB=CD Equality:** Time and price symmetry around 98.25 pivot - **Extension Ratios:** - 127.2% extension at 99.45 - 161.8% extension at 100.20 - 200% extension at 101.50 ## Elliott Wave Analysis ### Primary Count - **Current Position:** Wave 4 correction of larger degree impulse from 94.50 - **Wave Structure:** - Wave 1: 94.50 → 96.80 - Wave 2: 96.80 → 95.20 - Wave 3: 95.20 → 98.90 - Wave 4: 98.90 → 97.20 (current) - Wave 5 Target: 100.50-101.20 ### Alternative Count - **ABC Correction:** Large degree correction from 105.00 highs - **A-Wave:** 105.00 → 100.80 - **B-Wave:** 100.80 → 99.20 (current) - **C-Wave Target:** 94.00-95.50 ### Time Projections - **Wave 4 Completion:** 3-5 trading days - **Wave 5 Duration:** 8-13 days - **Cycle Completion:** 21-34 days ## Wyckoff Analysis ### Market Structure - **Phase:** Late accumulation or early distribution - **Trading Range:** 97.00-99.00 (established range) - **Point of Support (PS):** 97.20 level - **Secondary Test (ST):** Current price action around 97.85 - **Sign of Strength (SOS):** Break above 98.50 with volume - **Last Point of Support (LPS):** Final test around 97.40 ### Volume Characteristics - **Accumulation Signals:** High volume on declines, low volume on rallies - **Distribution Signals:** High volume on rallies, climactic action above 98.50 - **No Demand:** Weak rallies with declining volume - **Stopping Volume:** Heavy volume at support levels ## W.D. Gann Theory Analysis ### Time Theory - **Natural Cycles:** 30, 60, 90, 120-day cycles active - **Anniversary Dates:** Previous major highs at 105.00 (time squares) - **Seasonal Pattern:** USD strength typically in Q3-Q4 - **Time Windows:** - Minor: 7-10 days - Intermediate: 21-30 days - Major: 90-120 days ### Square of 9 Analysis - **Current Position:** 97.839 sits at 347° on the wheel - **Key Angles:** - 0°/360°: 98.00 (major resistance) - 45°: 97.20 (support) - 90°: 98.80 (resistance) - 180°: 96.40 (major support) - 270°: 99.60 (major resistance) ### Price Targets from Square - **Bullish Targets:** 98.44, 99.25, 100.69 - **Bearish Targets:** 97.21, 96.49, 95.36 ### Angle Theory - **1x1 Angle:** Primary trendline from 94.50 low at 97.60 - **2x1 Angle:** Acceleration line at 98.20 - **1x2 Angle:** Support line at 97.00 - **Fan Lines:** Multiple confluence zones at 97.25, 98.15, 99.05 ### Squaring Price and Time - **Price Squares:** 97.00, 98.00, 99.00, 100.00 - **Time Squares:** 144 hours (6 days), 233 hours (10 days) - **Geometric Harmony:** 50% level at 97.50, 62% at 98.10 ## Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis ### Cloud (Kumo) Analysis - **Current Position:** Price trading above cloud (bullish bias) - **Cloud Support:** 97.20-97.40 zone - **Future Cloud:** Bearish twist in 26 periods around 98.60 - **Cloud Thickness:** Medium strength S/R levels ### Signal Line Analysis - **Tenkan-sen (9):** 97.75 - short-term momentum line - **Kijun-sen (26):** 97.55 - medium-term trend line - **Senkou Span A:** 97.65 (leading span) - **Senkou Span B:** 97.30 (leading span) - **Chikou Span:** Confirming current price action strength ### Trading Signals - **TK Cross:** Tenkan above Kijun (weak bullish) - **Price vs Kijun:** Above baseline (bullish bias) - **Cloud Break:** Monitor 97.20 break for bearish signal ## Technical Indicators Analysis ### RSI (Relative Strength Index) - **14-Period RSI:** 52.8 (neutral zone) - **Overbought Level:** >70 (watch 98.20+ levels) - **Oversold Level:** <30 (watch 97.00- levels) - **Divergence Signals:** Hidden bullish divergence on 4H timeframe - **Trend Confirmation:** Break above 55 confirms bullish momentum ### Bollinger Bands - **Upper Band:** 98.45 (immediate resistance) - **Middle Band (20 SMA):** 97.80 (dynamic support/resistance) - **Lower Band:** 97.15 (immediate support) - **Band Width:** Moderate volatility (expansion expected) - **Squeeze Indicator:** Potential breakout setup forming ### VWAP Analysis - **Daily VWAP:** 97.72 (key pivot level) - **Weekly VWAP:** 97.91 (resistance) - **Monthly VWAP:** 98.15 (major resistance) - **Volume Profile:** High volume node at 97.50, 98.10 - **VWAP Deviation:** +1 std dev at 98.20, -1 std dev at 97.30 ### Moving Averages - **SMA 20:** 97.78 (short-term trend) - **SMA 50:** 97.45 (medium-term support) - **SMA 200:** 96.80 (long-term bullish above this) - **EMA 8:** 97.85 (immediate dynamic resistance) - **EMA 21:** 97.70 (key dynamic support) - **WMA 10:** 97.82 (weighted recent price bias) ## Multi-Timeframe Analysis ### Intraday Analysis #### 5-Minute Timeframe - **Trend:** Sideways with upward bias - **Range:** 97.75-97.95 immediate trading range - **Scalping Levels:** Buy 97.78, Sell 97.88 - **Breakout Levels:** Above 97.95 or below 97.75 #### 15-Minute Timeframe - **Pattern:** Ascending triangle formation - **Apex:** Around 97.90 level - **Time Target:** Next 2-3 hours for breakout - **Volume:** Declining (coiling for move) #### 30-Minute Timeframe - **Structure:** Higher lows pattern since 97.20 - **Resistance:** 98.00 psychological level - **Support:** 97.60 swing low - **Momentum:** Neutral to slightly bullish #### 1-Hour Timeframe - **Trend:** Corrective move within larger uptrend - **Key Level:** 98.20 hourly resistance - **Support Zone:** 97.40-97.60 - **Next Move:** 4-6 hour window for direction #### 4-Hour Timeframe - **Pattern:** Bull flag consolidation - **Pole:** Move from 97.00 to 98.90 - **Flag:** Current consolidation 97.20-98.20 - **Target:** 99.80-100.20 on upside break - **Invalidation:** Break below 97.00 ### Swing Analysis #### Daily Timeframe - **Primary Trend:** Bullish since July 2025 - **Current Phase:** Healthy pullback/consolidation - **Key Resistance:** 99.00-99.20 zone - **Major Support:** 96.80-97.00 zone - **Expected Duration:** 5-8 trading days #### Weekly Timeframe - **Long-term Trend:** Sideways to up since Q2 2025 - **Weekly Range:** 96.50-99.50 - **Momentum:** Neutral with bullish undertone - **Critical Level:** Weekly close above 98.50 #### Monthly Timeframe - **Macro Trend:** Recovery from 2024 lows - **Monthly Resistance:** 100.00-101.00 zone - **Monthly Support:** 95.00-96.00 zone - **Cycle Position:** Mid-cycle consolidation ## Key Levels & Price Targets ### Critical Support Levels 1. **97.60** - Immediate support (4H swing low) 2. **97.40** - Minor support (Gann angle) 3. **97.20** - Major support (Ichimoku cloud) 4. **97.00** - Key support (psychological + Wyckoff PS) 5. **96.80** - Weekly support (200 SMA) 6. **96.50** - Monthly support (major swing low) ### Critical Resistance Levels 1. **98.00** - Immediate resistance (psychological + Gann square) 2. **98.20** - Minor resistance (previous swing high) 3. **98.50** - Major resistance (weekly level) 4. **98.90** - Key resistance (recent high) 5. **99.20** - Weekly resistance (harmonic target) 6. **100.00** - Monthly resistance (major psychological) ### Price Projections #### Bullish Scenario (Probability: 55%) - **Catalyst:** Break above 98.20 with volume - **Target 1:** 98.80-99.00 - **Target 2:** 99.50-99.80 - **Target 3:** 100.20-100.50 - **Timeline:** 2-3 weeks #### Bearish Scenario (Probability: 35%) - **Catalyst:** Break below 97.40 with volume - **Target 1:** 97.00-96.80 - **Target 2:** 96.50-96.20 - **Target 3:** 95.80-95.50 - **Timeline:** 1-2 weeks #### Neutral Scenario (Probability: 10%) - **Range:** 97.40-98.20 - **Duration:** 1-2 weeks - **Strategy:** Range trading - **Breakout:** Eventually expected ## Risk Management Framework ### Position Sizing - **Conservative:** 1% risk per trade - **Moderate:** 1.5% risk per trade - **Aggressive:** 2% risk per trade ### Stop Loss Guidelines - **Intraday:** 20-30 points from entry - **Swing:** 50-80 points from entry - **Long-term:** 100-150 points from entry ### Take Profit Strategy - **Scale out:** 25% at first target - **Trail stops:** Above key support/resistance - **Final target:** Risk-reward minimum 1:2 ## Trading Strategies ### Intraday Strategy - **Long Setup:** Break above 98.00 with volume - **Entry:** 98.05-98.10 - **Stop:** 97.75 - **Target:** 98.45-98.60 ### Swing Strategy - **Long Setup:** Pullback to 97.40-97.60 - **Entry:** Scale in on support test - **Stop:** Below 97.00 - **Target:** 99.00-99.50 ### Momentum Strategy - **Breakout Play:** Above 98.50 or below 97.00 - **Volume Confirmation:** Required - **Follow Through:** Next day continuation - **Risk:** Tight stops due to false breaks ## Market Outlook Summary The DXY at 97.839 presents a critical inflection point with multiple technical frameworks suggesting an imminent directional move. The slight bullish bias is supported by: - Elliott Wave suggesting Wave 5 higher - Wyckoff accumulation characteristics - Gann time cycles favoring upward movement - Ichimoku cloud support holding However, traders should remain vigilant for: - False breakouts in current range - Federal Reserve policy changes - Global economic developments - Risk sentiment shifts **Primary Expectation:** Bullish breakout above 98.20 targeting 99.00+ **Alternative Scenario:** Range continuation 97.40-98.20 **Bearish Scenario:** Break below 97.00 targeting 96.50 *Analysis Date: August 17, 2025* *Next Update: August 19, 2025* *Key Event Risk: Federal Reserve communications, Economic data releases* For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
TVC:DXY
by sunya