EURUSD BTMM Analysis – Potential Reversal SetupOn the 1-hour chart, EURUSD continues to follow a clear downward trend, with price forming multiple lower highs and lower lows across the week.
Currently, the pair is trading near a potential reversal zone, where market makers may begin accumulation before a shift in direction. The MAs remain bearish, but early signs of exhaustion are visible as momentum slows near 1.1550 support.
If price forms a clear structure shift (SOC) or stop-hunt low, the setup could confirm a Day 1 reversal leading into a bullish retracement or a new cycle phase.
Bias: Preparing for possible bullish reversal
Confirmation: Structure break and hold above intraday highs
Invalidation: Sustained breakdown below 1.1530
J-DXY
DXY: Sellers Take ControlHi traders and investors!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
The US Dollar Index (DXY) formed a sideways range on the daily timeframe at the end of June. The seller’s initiative is now active, with a target at 96.767.
Before that, there was a buyer initiative, and we can see that at the end of it, there was a manipulation around the 98.640 level.
A buyer attack occurred on high volume, but the sellers absorbed the buyer’s attack candle and pushed the price downward on October 15.
The price may return to retest either 98.65 - 98.35 area. However, the main movement on the Dollar Index remains downward.
Wishing you profitable trades!
WHAT IS THE EXPECTED RETURN and DURATION of this GOLD Bull Run?Well, when measured against the DXY index, a clear trend becomes apparent.
A Golden Bull typically lasts about 40 quarters, which is essentially 1 decade (give or take a quarter).
Similar to #Bitcoin and its cyclical bull markets within a larger secular bull, the returns tend to decrease over time.
However, it seems that a triple-digit Gold price relative to the DXY is on the horizon at the very least.
What would that look like if the DXY were to hit a new low around 69? This would suggest a Gold price of $6900 at a ratio of 100:1.
A Gold price of $12K with a DXY of 80 only requires a ratio of 150...
Thus, a five-digit Gold price is certainly within the realm of possibility.
I have forecasts that extend as high as $12K.
GBP/USD – Buy Entry (H1- Channel Breakout Pattern)The GBP/USD Pair, Price has been trading within a Channel Pattern on the H1 chart, forming consistent higher highs and higher lows. Price action is now testing the upper boundary of the Pattern, signalling a possible breakout.
✅Market Context:
1️⃣Strong Upward Structure Inside the Pattern.
2️⃣Buyers are showing strength near Resistance.
3️⃣Breakout above the Trendline indicates Momentum continuation toward higher zones.
✅Trade Plan:
Entry: Buy after Confirmed Breakout above the Resistance (H1 candle close above trendline or retest of the breakout).
💰Take Profit (TP): At the Key Zone – a Major Resistance area identified ahead.
🛑Stop Loss (SL): Below the Pattern Structure.
✅Psychological Discipline :
1️⃣Stick to plan – No Revenge Trades.
2️⃣Accept losing trades as Part of the Strategy.
3️⃣Risk only 1–2% of your account balance per trade.
💬 Support the community: If you found this useful, drop a 👍 like and share your thoughts in the comments!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Forex trading involves high risk. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose and always do your own research.
DXY Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY Price is expected to retest the horizontal supply area early next week as liquidity builds up below Friday’s close. Smart Money may engineer a short-term rally into this zone before resuming the bearish move toward 98.38.
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Stop Loss: 98.71
Take Profit: 98.38
Entry: 98.58
Time Frame: 3H
-------------------
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY Will Go Higher! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 98.541.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 99.742.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Dollar index - Macro Bearish divergenceA lot of information in the above 6-month chart of the dollar index, could discuss for hours.. some highlights:
1) The bearish divergence currently printing shall confirm by July 2023 should 100 level collapse. It is the only time in history a bearish divergence of this strength has printed on the 6-month chart.
2) IF it confirms, the index will target the lower side of the channel around 60-70 level.
3) Notice the trend of the index, lower highs lower lows. It is remarkable how many are bullish on the dollar, in the macro sense.
4) Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ made considerable gains in the 10-year period that followed a rejection from the upper side of the channel. Many ‘experts’ now talk about the coming lost decade. Gold is the only option, they say. Is that what you see in this chart?! Not what I’m seeing..
Will return in July to see how this candle prints, however with 1.3 months to go it is not looking good for the dollar.
Ww
DXY UpdateDXY — The Volume Cap: Where Momentum Meets Memory
Every market has memory — and in the Dollar Index, it’s sitting right at 97.4.
That’s the current Volume Cap — a zone where heavy participation once stopped price cold, leaving unfinished business behind.
Price loves to revisit these caps, testing whether the imbalance still holds or finally gives way.
⚙️ Context (4H | Friday Recap)
Friday delivered heavy volume and clean directional flow — a textbook session.
DXY continues to rotate within the 97.048–99.198 range, holding a short-term bullish tone inside a larger consolidation.
📊 Technical Map
• Structure: Long-term bearish range inside a broader consolidation phase.
• Momentum: Still bullish, but showing early fatigue.
• Volume Cap: The 97.4 level remains unfilled, acting like a magnet for potential retests — the true battleground between continuation and correction.
🌐 Fundamental Pulse
After a month of running hot, the dollar finally cooled.
Retail Sales and Industrial Production softened, yields eased, and traders started whispering “rate cuts” again.
The Fed’s cautious tone keeps volatility contained ahead of next week’s Core PCE inflation data.
🧭 Trade Plan (If/Then)
If DXY runs through 97.4, watch for a bearish Volume Cap flip — potential downside toward nearby support.
If Monday’s price action drives higher, expect bullish momentum rotation back toward the 97.0 retest region.
Gold Near 4,280 as US–China Tensions Fuel Flight to Safety!Hey Traders,
In today’s session, we’re monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around the 4,280 zone. Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with price currently correcting toward a key structural support area where buyers may look to re-enter.
From a fundamental standpoint, rising US–China geopolitical tensions have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Market sentiment is tilting defensive, and Gold — already hovering near all-time highs — continues to reflect that global risk aversion.
A sustained bid above 4,280 could reinforce bullish momentum and potentially open the path toward new highs if uncertainty persists.
Key level: 4,280 (support / trend confluence)
Bias: Bullish while above this level
Trade safe,
Joe.
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
EUR/USD is currently trading below a key resistance zone and has already pulled back to the broken ascending trendline.
The price action suggests weakening bullish momentum, indicating a possible continuation to the downside.
After some short-term consolidation in this zone, the pair is expected to resume its decline toward the highlighted support area.
As long as the price remains below the resistance zone, the short-term outlook stays bearish.
However, a daily close above the resistance would invalidate this bearish scenario.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Gold's Historic Rally: Why It HappenedGold approaches $4,500 per ounce for the first time in history. Up more than 50% in less than a year. Everyone's asking the same question: Is this a historic breakout, or the setup for a massive crash?
The answer requires looking at three things: what brought us here, where we are technically, and what could go wrong.
PART 1: THE MACRO STORY
Gold doesn't just rally because people are "scared." It rallies because of structural shifts in how the world's largest institutions view money, risk, and trust.
Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Pace
Here's a number that should get your attention: Central banks bought 1,045 tons of gold in 2024. That's the second-highest annual total on record.
In 2025, the buying hasn't slowed down. Poland alone has accumulated 67 tons year-to-date. Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, and others are following suit.
But here's what's really happening: This isn't about inflation hedging. If it were, Western central banks (US, Europe) would be buying too. They're not. Instead, emerging market central banks are diversifying away from the dollar.
Why? Because they watched what happened in 2022 when the US froze Russian reserves. When you hold dollar-denominated assets, they can be weaponized. Gold can't be sanctioned. Gold can't be frozen.
Central banks don't panic sell on a 5% dip. When they buy, they hold. This creates a structural price floor. Every pullback gets accumulated.
What this means: Central bank buying is the foundation of this rally, not a temporary catalyst.
The Federal Reserve is Cutting Interest Rates
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a level of certainty that the Fed would cut rates in October 2025, with markets pricing in another cut in December this year.
When interest rates fall, something important happens to gold: its "opportunity cost" decreases.
Here's the simple version: Gold pays no interest. So when bonds also pay almost nothing (after inflation), holding gold looks pretty reasonable. But when real yields are high, bonds look better and gold looks worse.
Right now, the market is pricing in lower real yields ahead. That's bullish for gold. If the Fed doesn't cut as much as the market expects, that changes everything.
What this means: Rate cuts fuel the rally.
Geopolitical Instability & Currency Debasement
Global tensions remain elevated: Middle East instability, US-China friction, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. But that's not the real driver here.
The real driver is the loss of faith in government money.
Gold is at an all-time high, not just in US dollars. It's also hitting all-time highs in euros, yen, and yuan. This isn't a dollar story. This is a global reassessment of what "money" actually means.
Meanwhile, the US national debt is over $35 trillion. Debt-to-GDP is at World War II levels. Other countries (Japan, Europe) are in similar situations, printing money and running massive deficits.
When governments print excessively, investors need a hedge. Gold can't be printed.
What this means: As long as deficits remain high and geopolitical chaos persists, gold has structural demand that goes beyond cycles.
The Bottom Line
Three powerful forces are all pushing in the same direction:
Central banks structurally accumulating gold (de-dollarization)
The Fed cutting rates (lower real yields = gold support)
Global monetary instability (currency debasement = safe-haven bid)
This combination hasn't existed in most traders' lifetimes. That's why this rally feels different. And why it's lasted this long.
Stop!Loss|Market View: BTCUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the BTCUSD ☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 107,294.21
💰TP: 99,296.41
⛔️SL: 113,888.88
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: Given the technical accumulation of the price near the lower border of the accumulation area 110,500 - 121,810, as well as a decline in open interest in the BTC futures market (medium- to long-term picture), a breakout of the lower border of the indicated accumulation area is expected. The key target is near 100,000, with a further decline to 90,000 expected.
Thanks for your support 🚀
Profits for all ✅
❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Gold Still Running Hot — No Real Pullback YetPrice exploded out of the 15m FVG during Thursday’s Asian session and hasn’t looked back. Took a long right off that 8PM impulsive candle, scaling in as we broke back above the Previous Daily High.
Now we’re holding steady above 4345 — the midpoint of the Asian range looks like short-term support. If bulls defend this level, we could see continuation toward 4380–4400.
Friday bias: Bullish, unless 4340 gives out.
No clean pullback = no reason to force entries. Let the market prove it.
#GoldFutures #MGC #ICTConcepts #NOFOMO #DayTrading
BITCOIN / Expected bottom and upcoming Targets This is the expected scenario for the bitcoin price in the long term
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The dollar index reached a strong resistance
There is a strong negative divergence on the monthly time frame
Please support the idea by pressing the like button and writing your opinion in the comment box
Good luck 🌹
USD/CAD Bullish Bias Supported by COT Data and Seasonal Trends🗓 Monthly Chart Overview
• Price Inefficiency Zone: There's a clear imbalance between 1.40165 and 1.41248, suggesting a potential magnet for price. A retracement to at least the 50% level of this inefficiency could be expected.
• Bullish Structure: Price has formed a bullish order block and is currently retracing, which often precedes a continuation move upward.
• This setup hints at accumulation before a bullish expansion.
📆 Weekly Chart Insights
• Inefficiency Filled: Price has filled previous inefficiencies, showing healthy market structure.
• Liquidity Behavior: We've seen price sweep lows, then begin sweeping highs, while respecting bullish blocks—a strong indication of a shift in directional intent.
• This behavior supports the idea that USD/CAD is preparing for a bullish continuation.
📅 Daily Chart Momentum
• Aggressive Breakout: After a period of consolidation, price broke out aggressively to the upside, confirming bullish momentum.
• Structure: The daily chart maintains a bullish structure, reinforcing the higher timeframe bias.
💹 Commitment of Traders (COT) Data
• USD Positioning: The U.S. Dollar is showing net buying interest, supporting strength.
• CAD Positioning: The Canadian Dollar is net bearish on average when compared to last year’s data.
• This divergence in sentiment adds confluence to a bullish USD/CAD bias.
📊 Seasonal Trends
• Historically, USD/CAD tends to rise from August through November, with September, October, and especially November being the most bullish months.
• This seasonal tendency aligns with the current technical and fundamental setup.
🏦 Macro Considerations
• Interest Rates: Keep a close eye on central bank rate decisions and forward guidance, as they can significantly impact USD/CAD volatility and direction.
🔍 Summary
USD/CAD shows strong bullish potential across monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes. Technical structure, COT data, and seasonal trends all point toward a continuation to the upside. A revisit to the inefficiency zone around 1.4060–1.4120 could be a key target in the coming months.
US Dollar: Bullish! The Pullback To Support Is An Opportunity!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Oct 13 - 17th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD was bullish all of last week, except for Friday. Pres. Trump announced China tariffs and the market dumped. For me, this is a market knee jerk reaction, and temporary in nature. I am looking for the DXY to continue higher this coming week, rendering last Friday's candle as only a pullback to support.
There is an opportunity here for buyers, in my opinion.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Will DXY Sustain The Pressure Amid Current Uncertainties?Fundamental approach:
- The US dollar retreated this week, pressured by expectations of continued Fed easing and signs of emerging economic weakness.
- The Fed's latest Beige Book revealed that economic activity remained flat, with increasing layoffs across districts, and middle- to lower-income households reducing their spending, reinforcing dovish expectations. Chair Powell's scheduled remarks and the ongoing government shutdown, which began on 1 Oct, have delayed critical data. The Sep NFP was not released, and the Sep CPI is rescheduled for Fri, 24 Oct, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar's outlook.
- Meanwhile, the euro gained ground as European currencies strengthened against the greenback, with the dollar down around 10% YTD.
- The dollar may face continued downside pressure as markets await the Fed's October 28-29 meeting, where a 0.25% rate cut is widely anticipated. However, delayed economic data releases could inject volatility into near-term trading.
Technical approach:
- DXY is trading within the ascending channel and retesting the support at 98.60. The index is slightly above both EMAs, indicating the upward momentum persists.
- If DXY remains above the key support at 98.60, confluence with the ascending channel's lower bound, the index may rise to retest the psychological resistance at 100.00.
- On the contrary, breaking below the support and both EMAs may prompt the DXY to retest the following support at 97.15.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Stop!Loss|Market View: AUDUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the AUDUSD currency pair☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 0.64749
💰TP: 0.63731
⛔️SL: 0.65492
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: OANDA:AUDUSD and OANDA:NZDUSD are currently the most likely currency pairs to fall amid the likely continued strengthening of the USD. By the end of the year or early next year, an updating of the 2025 lows is expected. The short-term picture also suggests a likely context for selling. Accumulation below the POC level and support from the uptrend channel will likely lead to a decline toward the 0.63000 - 0.64000 area.
Thanks for your support 🚀
Profits for all ✅
❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
DXY — 4H Fibonacci Discount ZoneDXY — 4H Fibonacci Discount Zone: bounce or breakdown?
Context (4H | Pre-London | 16 Oct)
Dollar Index is testing a 50% Fibonacci discount zone after an overnight -2 deviation.
Volume remains light, but buyers stepped in near the 98.2 region, defending short-term structure.
Big picture still leans bearish
Technical Map
• Structure: Consolidation within broader bearish context — 4H recovery attempts forming.
• Key Level: 98.2 acting as short-term decision point; deviation off 50% Fib zone.
• Momentum: −2 deviation within 4H range — early shift toward mean reversion.
• Volume: Heavy order flow support beneath 98.0; thin liquidity overhead until 98.6.
Structure overall remains bearish, but short-term momentum favors a corrective bid from the Fibonacci discount zone.
Fundamental Pulse
The Fed minutes gave us a small dip in yields, but the Dollar didn’t flinch — it’s still holding firm.
Sticky inflation keeps the Fed cautious, reinforcing that “higher-for-longer” tone.
Now all eyes turn to today’s CPI at 15:30 EET — the real test for rate expectations.
For now, rates steady, risk tone calm, traders waiting for direction.
Plan (If/Then)
If DXY pushes above 98.6, expect momentum toward the 99.0 zone.
Break below 98.05 reopens path toward 97.6–97.4 support band.
R:R potential ≈ 1 : 3 — solid setup if volatility expands post-CPI.
Stay patient and scale small before the CPI lands.
Mindset Pulse
Observation beats anticipation.
Let price confirm your story, not the other way around.
Stay aligned with structure; one mouse click can cost a narrative.
Dollar Index Big Map: Trend Is Your Friend This year, the dollar has been in the red all the way down — until it hit the strong support line of a multi-decade uptrend (white). From there, it bounced to the upside. So, what’s next?
I’d like to share with you a big map of the Dollar Index.
I assume that we are still within the large second leg ((Y)) of the ((WXY)) corrective structure (white).
Within this structure, we can see a smaller-degree (WXY) correction (blue).
Currently, the market is moving in the last leg C of the final upward move in blue wave (Y).
Many times, I’ve observed how beautifully these wave structures align with strong pivot points.
The ultimate target for wave ((Y)) is near the top of wave ((W)), around 121.
This level also matches the target where blue wave (Y) equals blue wave (X) — an amazing correlation!
There are two key confirmation levels marked on the map:
Bullish confirmation — above 110 (this would invalidate the bearish scenario).
Bearish confirmation — below 89 (this would invalidate the ((WXY)) structure).






















