JP MORGAN: Perfect 1W MA50 rebound targeting $350. JP Morgan is neutral both on its 1D and 1W technical outlooks (RSI = 54.173, MACD = 7.520, ADX = 32.502), suggesting that it remains inside the best buy zone for the long term. As a matter of fact, having rebounded exactly on its 1W MA50, this is the best buy opportunity since October 23rd 2023, which was the last time it hit the 1W MA50. As shown, the long term pattern is a Channel Up and every contact with the 1W MA50 has coincided with a 1W RSI test of the S1 Zone. There is no better buy entry than the current level and we can safely aim for yet another +57.76% run (TP = $350.00).
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JPM
JPM rally ending soon?My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I have been wrong many times before so I will just take this thing in stages and see if it plays out. After this massive decline, we should be in for a great market rally of many decades. I am expecting the market to end its recent rally this week. The current rarely would be about a week in length depending when it began for individual stocks. The rally has done a few important things with its slow and prolonged upward movement, mainly prevents a wave 3 signal from occurring during the next decline.
My wave 3 indicator tends to signal wave 3s and 3 of 3s. See my scripts for the specifics of the indicator. If the market had a short wave 4 up and then a sharp or prolonged drop during wave 5, a new wave 3 signal would occur which violates the currently placed Minor wave 3 (yellow 3). Allowing separation from the current wave 3 signal enables wave 5 to drop quick or slow.
This chart applies select movement extensions based on wave 1's movement on the left and then another based on wave 3's movement on the right. I keep the values between 0%-100% on the chart for wave 2s and 4s retracements of the preceding wave's movement for reference even though the retracement values would be inverted.
Specifically for JPM, Minor wave 3 was longer than wave 1, which does not place a maximum length on wave 5. Assuming wave 4 ends on Thursday or Friday, Minor wave 5 could be a week or longer. In that time, at the very least it should drop below wave 3's bottom of 224.23. Using some basic movement extensions, it will likely go lower. The 5 wave lower pattern for this fifth wave is hypothetical, but a bottom could occur between 203 and 214. Once we bottom, we should see another rally over a few weeks. I will forecast what that could look like as Intermediate wave 1 nears its end.
JPM JPMorgan Chase Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought JPM before the breakout:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of JPM JPMorgan Chase prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 245usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $5.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
JP Morgan (JPM): Correction on the HorizonJP Morgan ( NYSE:JPM ) is back on our radar as the upcoming earnings season begins, with the banking sector leading the reports. We’ve analyzed JP Morgan before, and the current setup offers intriguing opportunities. Since 2023, the stock has maintained a steady upward trend that continues into 2024.
Currently, NYSE:JPM appears to be in sub-wave ((iii)) within the larger wave (3) or possibly wave 5. However, we anticipate that sub-wave ((iv)) correction is yet to occur, aligning with the broader structural narrative of the chart.
Presently, the stock is trading near a critical trendline originating from the top of sub-wave ((i)). This trendline, which has shifted from resistance to support after multiple touchpoints, now risks being broken. Should it fail, the price could fall from its current level of $243 into a range between $204 and $173. A drop to $173 would represent the maximum correction in our view, while a more realistic pullback would fall within the $204 to $188 range.
On the bullish side, the wave 5 could push up to approximately $260, a modest increase from the current price. This scenario fits within the Elliott Wave framework, anticipating a wave ((iv)) correction before the final upward moves to complete wave 5 and the larger wave (3).
JPM Bullish Breakout? JPMorgan Trend & Seasonal Insights In this video, we analyze JPM, JP Morgan Chase, which is currently exhibiting a strong bullish trend on the daily timeframe. The stock has consistently retraced to 50% of its previous price swings. Adding a seasonality perspective, we observe a historical pattern where the market tends to sell off into December 20th before rallying through the first or second week of January. My bias remains bullish, with a potential buy at the current price contingent on a break of structure. Please note, this is not financial advice.
JP MORGAN Expect a 1D MA50 correction before it turns into a buyJP Morgan Chase (JPM) posted a strong bullish leg on our last analysis (September 17, see chart below) that easily hit our $229 Target:
From a wider perspective on the 1D time-frame, the price is now right at the top of the 13-month Channel Up on an overbought 1D RSI and a 1D MACD that is about to form a Bearish Cross.
All previous Higher Highs of the pattern formed MACD Bearish Crosses and pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on a minimum of -7.35% correction. Note that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) never broke, so as long as it holds, the long-term bullish trend is intact.
As a result, we now expect a pull-back to the 1D MA50 and a minimum of -7.35% decline puts the Target a $236.00.
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JPM: Overbought on 1M. Buying becomes risky now.JP Morgan is almost overbought on its 1M technical outlook (RSI = 69.452, MACD = 20.800, ADX = 54.049), trading very close to the top of the 12 year Channel Up. Being overbought on the wider/ longest timeframe available, indicates trend exhastion and a potential bearish reversal. Basically, we continue to use the same pattern that helped us get a strong buy last time and this time it shows that the last two times the 1M RSI was this overbought, the stock pulled back to at least the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Consequently we expect a lengthy but relatively controlled correction to start in the coming candles to test the 0.236 Fib and approach the 1M MA50 (TP = 187.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Bank of America Stock Surge on Q3 Earnings BeatBank of America (NYSE: NYSE:BAC ) delivered impressive third-quarter results, showcasing its resilience amid a challenging economic landscape. The bank reported $25.34 billion in revenue, slightly up from $25.17 billion a year earlier and above the analysts' consensus projection of $25.28 billion. Although profit fell to $6.90 billion ($0.81 per share) from $7.8 billion ($0.90 per share) last year, this was still better than the expected drop to $6.45 billion** or $0.75 per share.
Key Financial Highlights:
- Net Interest Income (NII) was reported at $13.97 billion, down from $14.38 billion a year ago but exceeding the expectation of $13.85 billion.
- The bank's trading revenue saw a significant uptick, with fixed income trading revenue rising 8% to $2.9 billion and equities trading jumping 18% to $2 billion.
These results come on the heels of similar positive reports from rivals like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, highlighting a robust start to the big bank earnings season. This broader positive sentiment in the banking sector is likely contributing to a favorable outlook for Bank of America.
Technical Analysis
As of the time of writing, NYSE:BAC shares are up 1.62%, signaling a bullish trend. The stock has recently rebounded from a consolidation zone, gathering momentum for further upward movement. A key indicator of this bullish sentiment is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently hovering around 71, indicating that the stock is entering overbought territory.
The stock's performance is further supported by its trading above key moving averages, which traditionally signals a strong bullish trend. Analysts note that this upward momentum, combined with the bank's robust earnings, positions Bank of America (NYSE: NYSE:BAC ) favorably for potential further gains, especially as NII shows signs of recovery.
Investment Implications:
The current trajectory suggests that Bank of America (NYSE: NYSE:BAC ) is turning a corner in terms of NII, as indicated by analysts like Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo. With the Federal Reserve having recently cut interest rates, analysts believe this should help improve bank earnings moving forward, as lower deposit costs may enhance profitability.
Additionally, with a provision for credit losses reported at $1.5 billion, slightly under the estimated $1.57 billion, the bank appears to be managing its risks effectively, further instilling confidence in investors.
Conclusion
Bank of America's latest earnings report reflects a strong performance amid a dynamic banking environment. The combination of better-than-expected trading results, a recovery in NII, and robust investor sentiment positions NYSE:BAC as a compelling investment opportunity. As the bank continues to navigate the evolving landscape of interest rates and economic conditions, investors may want to keep a close watch on its performance in the upcoming quarters.
JPMorgan Stock Surges After Q3 Earnings Beat EstimatesJPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: NYSE:JPM ) shares rose nearly 5% on Friday as the bank's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations. JPMorgan (NYSE: NYSE:JPM ), the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, reported a robust revenue of $42.65 billion, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $40.85 billion. This strong performance was driven by growth in net interest income (NII), which increased to $23.41 billion.
Earnings Outlook
JPMorgan’s solid Q3 results showcased its ability to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment. The bank posted earnings of $4.37 per share, slightly higher than the $4.33 from a year ago and far ahead of analyst estimates of $3.97. While profits dipped slightly to $12.9 billion from $13.15 billion, the impressive revenue and NII growth were key drivers behind the stock's upward momentum.
Despite the recent cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which had impacted net interest margins for many banks, JPMorgan’s core business remained resilient. Rising deposit costs have placed pressure on banks in recent quarters, but the expectation is that lower rates will eventually lower deposit expenses and reignite loan growth. JPMorgan is also well-positioned to benefit from potential future interest rate cuts, which should stimulate investment banking activity and loan demand.
CEO Jamie Dimon remains cautious about the global economy, citing geopolitical risks such as the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. These factors, combined with U.S.-China tensions, have prompted the bank to maintain a defensive posture. Nevertheless, JPMorgan's massive scale and global reach have enabled it to weather uncertainty better than most financial institutions.
Technical Outlook
On the technical side, JPMorgan’s stock is up 4.96% at the time of writing, approaching an overbought region with an RSI of 68.35. This marks a critical juncture, as the stock is nearing its August 30th, 2024, resistance point, a level where it previously dipped after a strong rally. While the possibility of a short-term pullback exists, the current daily price chart shows a bullish harami pattern. This continuation pattern, particularly when preceded by two bullish candles, indicates strong momentum in favor of further gains.
The bullish harami pattern, coupled with JPMorgan’s strong earnings performance, suggests that the stock may continue to rise in the near term. However, investors should monitor the NYSE:JPM resistance level closely, as a break above this point could propel the stock toward new highs, while a failure to break through may signal a potential consolidation or regression.
In summary, JPMorgan’s combination of strong earnings, a positive technical setup, and resilient fundamentals make it a stock to watch in the coming weeks. While geopolitical uncertainties and potential market volatility remain risks, the bank’s performance in this quarter positions it as a leader in the financial sector.
JPM JPMorgan Chase Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on JPM:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of JPM JPMorgan Chase prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 210usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $2.82.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
TSLA: 125% gains Best Level to BUY/HOLD 🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour price chart for TSLA.
Currently a mixed package overall with limited upside potential,
I don't recommend entering any buys at current price.
🔸Ongoing accumulation since May 2023, significant lows printed
in April 2023 / 2024, so I'm tagging April 2025 as a potential reversal
for TSLA / bottom buying near range lows totally makes sense.
🔸Accumulation range defined by range lows at 175 usd
and range highs at 255 usd. premium prices below at 145/165
and above at 280 and 305 usd.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting pullback based on measured move projection set to extend further down towards 175 usd. currently
trading at 250 usd, no entries recommended on buy side. This is a
trade setup for patient traders. may take more time to develop.
conservative target is 350 USD, so +125% gains off the lows.
🔸Finally, check out the TSLA related story below and let me know
in the comments section if you'd like to get more updates like this.
Don't forget to follow/like/comment, this is much appreciated.
Year 2030. Tesla coupe safely lands on Mars. Exploration mission
starts in April 2030.
▪️ In this fictional tale in 2030, Tesla founder Elon Musk and his wife Grimes make a historic landing on Mars, marking a new era in space exploration.
▪️ Upon arrival, they establish a settlement called "New Teslaville," aiming to turn it into a sustainable colony for future generations.
▪️ Their first day involves setting up essential infrastructure, including solar panels, an oxygen generator, and a Mars rover.
▪️ The next day, they plant a Tesla flag on Mars, signifying humanity's first successful landing on the red planet.
▪️ On day three, Musk shares a heartfelt message about the importance of space colonization for humanity's survival.
▪️ After a successful first week, they receive a message from Earth, indicating the start of the "New Mars Era" and their status as the first Martian settlers.
▪️ The couple ends their week by enjoying the Martian sunset in a Tesla coupe.
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JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Bearish Scenario on the HorizonYou have to hear us out on this one, as we are presenting a very bearish scenario, but we will explain why we think it could unfold this way.
First, let's look at the weekly chart (yes, the weekly chart). This chart shows a near-perfect Elliott wave and Fibonacci count, respecting all the important theoretical points well. If this analysis is correct, we are currently in the last push of wave (5) to end this large cycle. After that, we should see lower prices for a higher wave II. We give the current wave (5) a maximum target of $271, but it is more likely to drop before we reach that level.
In the the main chart, we zoomed in to make it clearer. Everything depends on whether we are correct about wave (3) and wave (4). If our count is accurate, wave (3) should conclude between the 227.2% and 261.8% levels. NYSE:JPM has formed a bearish divergence on the RSI, and if the stock drops below $190, we expect prices to fall further, ideally between $178.46 and $149, for one last push higher to conclude this cycle.
It will take some time until we get there, but good things take time, and we are ready for it to play out. Alerts are set, and the plan is in place. 😎
$JPM 65m Analysis (Continuation)What's up everyone, I'm back with some quick update on $JPM.
Quick fact: The 65-minute chart has 6 evenly sized candles (65 x 6 = 390, amt of mins per day).
Based on our previous analysis:
- NYSE:JPM has bounced off the 0.618 bullish Fibonacci on the 65-minute chart at $204.11
- Price Target of $225.48 at 0.0 (assuming we continue the bullish trend)
- Stop Loss of $194.36 at the 0.9 bullish Fibonacci
The price is currently up 2% from when we first analyzed the stock and 3.85% from the last time it touched 0.618.
If you're in the play, stay the course, move your stop loss to 0.5 Fibonacci if you want to decrease your risk. If not, hold on.
I'm not in the play.
JPM - 10% to 20% Dip IncomingDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational & entertainment purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to be involved with this market. Trading involves significant risk, do your own due diligence.
A concerning sign for JPM bulls triggered today. We saw the DPO & CCI divergence confirmed. Price targets to the downside of this confirmation imply a 10% to 20% dip is coming for JPM.
See you down there.
JP MORGAN to rise at least +14% on this rally.We haven't looked into JP Morgan Chase (JPM) in almost 6 months (March 25, see chart below) and the excellent sell signal it gave us:
That was right at the top of its 2-year Channel Up. Right now we have the price rebounding an pricing a Higher Low on a shorter-term Channel Up since the March 25 High. Being still below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), gives time for an early buy.
The minimum % of a Bullish Leg within this Channel Up has been +14.07% so our Target is at $229.00 accordingly.
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JPMorgan Stock Slumps Amid Interest Income ConcernsJPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: NYSE:JPM ) recently experienced a significant drop in its stock price, slumping over 7% following warnings from its President and COO, Daniel Pinto, about the bank’s net interest income (NII) outlook. As the largest U.S. bank by assets, JPMorgan's financial health is closely watched as a bellwether for the broader banking sector. Here's a deep dive into both the technical and fundamental aspects affecting JPMorgan’s stock.
Fundamental Analysis
JPMorgan's recent stock decline was triggered by Pinto’s comments that NII expectations are overly optimistic given the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Fed is anticipated to lower its key policy rate by at least 25 basis points during its upcoming September meeting, initiating a potential monetary easing cycle. Lower rates are likely to compress NII, which represents the spread between what the bank earns on loans and what it pays on deposits.
Previously, JPMorgan (NYSE: NYSE:JPM ) forecasted its NII to rise to $91 billion this year, excluding its markets division. However, with the Fed’s rate cuts on the horizon, future projections have been adjusted downward. Investors are now concerned that the bank may not hit its 2025 NII target of approximately $90 billion, especially with Pinto's warning that "next year is going to be a bit more challenging."
Expense Outlook and Broader Concerns
Additionally, the analyst estimates for JPMorgan’s expenses in 2025, pegged around $94 billion, have been deemed overly optimistic by Pinto. With inflationary pressures and new investments looming, the bank’s expense base is expected to be higher than current projections. This dual concern over income and expenses has rattled investor confidence, making it JPMorgan's worst drop since June 2020.
Despite these challenges, JPMorgan’s position as a leader in gathering deposits and making loans remains strong. The bank's trading revenue is projected to be flat to slightly up year-over-year, and investment banking fees are expected to rise by about 15%, indicating resilience in other business segments. However, slowing economic growth in the U.S. and an anticipated decline in new loan yields due to rate cuts continue to cloud the outlook.
Technical Analysis
Current Price Action
As of the latest trading session, JPMorgan stock was down 5.19% in extended market trading, reflecting the broader market's nervous reaction to Pinto’s comments. The stock has been under pressure, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53 suggests that the stock isn’t yet in overbought or oversold territory, indicating a potential for reversal if sentiment shifts positively.
Key Technical Patterns
- Golden Cross Pattern: The daily chart shows a golden cross pattern formed earlier in the year, a bullish indicator where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Historically, this pattern has been associated with upward momentum, suggesting potential long-term strength despite current headwinds.
- Support and Resistance Levels: Currently, JPM is trying to establish a base around $133, which acts as a critical support level. A break below this pivot would confirm a bearish reversal pattern, potentially leading to further declines. Conversely, holding above this level could set the stage for a recovery, especially if NII concerns are tempered by unexpected positive news.
- RSI Analysis: The RSI of 53 implies that JPMorgan stock (NYSE: NYSE:JPM ) is positioned for a possible trend reversal. If buying pressure increases, the stock could move towards its next resistance levels near $145 and then $155.
- Bearish Divergence: However, caution is advised as there has been a recent bearish divergence between price and momentum indicators, which could signal further downside if investor sentiment does not improve.
Outlook and Key Considerations
JPMorgan remains fundamentally strong, with robust trading and investment banking revenues cushioning some of the expected pressure on NII. However, the market's reaction to the tempered guidance reflects broader concerns about the impact of lower rates on bank profitability.
For investors, the key takeaway is that while JPMorgan’s stock faces near-term challenges, the bank’s dominant market position, diversified revenue streams, and proactive management strategies still provide a solid foundation. Technically, a close watch on support levels and RSI dynamics will be crucial in determining the stock's short-term direction.
Conclusion
JPMorgan’s recent slump highlights the balancing act the bank must perform amid changing economic conditions. While the market’s reaction has been swift, the long-term narrative for JPMorgan remains constructive, provided the bank can navigate the expected rate cuts and maintain control over rising expenses. For traders and investors, staying informed on both the fundamental outlook and technical patterns will be essential in making well-timed decisions regarding $JPM.
Are financials topping? XLF hitting major resistance.
JPM hitting major resistance.
Financial have been putting a very strong bid under the SPY & IWM
If financials are topping here i do think it will be a major headwind for the market.
I'm watching to see if the Fed rate cut becomes buy the rumor sell the news!
Are financials topping here? Financials have been one of the leading and strongest sectors on the back of rate cut narratives.
The resilience and strength can easily be observed...
XLF has been making new highs despite the QQQ & SPY not.
Now it begs the question; is all the rate cut priced in?
We think financials are set for some downward rotation.
If this rotation occurs it opens up many other opportunities as financials do carry some decent weight in the indices.
Today names like JPM & XLF gave us a potential daily topping tail.






















