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XNGUSD ready to reverse recent downtrend LONGXNGUSD has been on a long downtrend. On the 1 H Chart, a falling wedge is seen awaiting a breakout. Moving Average slopes are decreasing their negativity towards zero. ATR / Volatility is decreasing as is the downtrend momentum on the average directional index indicator. I see this as a long swing trade setting up for forex or alternatively a natural gas ETF like UNL / UNG or a natural gas stock like LNG. This trade would be propelled by the dollar losing strength, inflation being sustained, WW III in Europe continuing and the weather turning cooler the remainder of the winter.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
Natural Gas collapsing! Yet another deflationary signNatural gas in the US is collapsing. In part this has to do with LNG exports to the rest of the world being halted due to a fire to one of the export terminals. However in my honest opinion, there is more to it. It probably has to do more with the deflationary forces taking over, as high interest rates, money supply shrinking and inflation being too high, have destroyed demand to a very large extend. At the same time we are seeing progress in the energy space, with more projects and drilling taking place, as the ESG movement is taking a hit. The green movement needs to be sidetracked for a while, as we need cheap energy right now. Otherwise the war in Ukraine won't stop in Ukraine and we are gonna have famine in most of the world. So where would I be looking to buy natural gas? Or until what level would I be willing to short it? Based on an average I created which includes several futures contracts, I think that closing shorts at around 5$ is a good idea, yet buying a lot of NatGas with significant upside, I'd say start buying between 3-4$.
NYMEX:NG1!
by BitcoinMacro
1
Update on US Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices – December 2022A cold weather snap forecast across much of the United States is driving demand for natural gas as a heating fuel higher. Prices of front month Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures have risen over the past week as a result. The front of the curve has moved more than the rest of the curve. The curve is now close to where it was two weeks ago. Natural gas in storage is within seasonally normal range. Since June 2022, when Freeport LNG Terminal had to shut down after a fire, natural gas storage in the US has been ramped up as the gas produced in the US can no longer be exported at the same volume as prior to the shut-down. Freeport LNG accounts for close to 20% of US export capacity. Its re-opening has been delayed many times and the latest guidance from Freeport is a partial opening in mid-December 2022 and full production in March 2023 . However, in an email statement to Reuters they have pushed the reopening to end-of-year , and we remain sceptical that there will be any flow of LNG from the terminal this side of the of the New Year. Ample storage could drive US natural gas prices lower when the cold weather snap passes. Europe has been able to fill its natural gas storage capacity to close to 90% coming into the start of the winter period (October 2022) and is now drawing on that capacity at a slower than expected rate due to thrifting and an initially milder-than-expected weather pattern. However, colder weather has arrived, which could drive higher demand. Natural gas flows to Europe from Russia have slowed to a trickle and hence the region is reliant on Liquified Natural Gas from elsewhere. Unfortunately, with Freeport LNG offline, the US will not participate fully in meeting this demand over the coming weeks, but US Henry Hub may get a boost when Freeport LNG opens. The European Union is currently trying to implement a price cap on imports. There is no final deal to speak of, but the European Commission’s proposal, is for a market correction mechanism that would kick in when the price of month-ahead contracts on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility exceeded €275 ($290) per megawatt hour and the gap between world prices was greater than €58 . Any success in approving this price cap, could limit upside for US Henry Hub used as feedstock for LNG exports to Europe. However, with the price gap between US and European natural gas prices being so wide (almost 6 times ), we believe the upside could nevertheless very large. Source: 1 FREE PORTING NEW ROUTER 2 Reuters 3 Bloomberg 13/12/2022 4 WisdomTree calculation on 13/12/2022 using Dutch TTF Gas 1st Line Financial Futures (USD/MMBTU) as published by ICE Endex who convert megawatt hour to Metric Million British Thermal Unit (MMBTU) and USD using the WM/Refinitiv Closing EURUSD Spot Rates as published by Refinitiv at 4 pm UK time and Henry Hub Front month futures.
NYMEX:NG1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
End of the lineCheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) stock has been on the rip since the Russian invasion on Ukraine in Febuary of '22. Russian invasion has shaken the global flows of natural gas and has enabled USA to replace Russia as dominant supplied of natural gas to Europe. Cheniere is the company which basically dominates the shipping of LNG across the Atlantic, so its no wonder their stock did more than 50% since the start of the war. As Natural gas, and energy prices in general, are slowly correcting to pre-war levels it makes sense for LNG stock to correct to its former support. It happens that support at about $120 is the same support which was tested after the war broke out, and the stock broke out to new highs.
LShort
by Owcheew8
1
LNG ( Natural Gas ) Breakout from Cup and Handle LONGThis is a classical chart pattern. The bullish continuation would be expected to be about $25.00 of upside given the height of the cup. The short time MAs have crossed the intermediate MA from underneath in a "Golden Cross" while positive momentum just started on the squeeze indicator. Fundamentally this makes sense with the winter heating season and the energy sector the best performing this year. I will choose a Feb 23 call option 15% above current price. ina
LLong
by AwesomeAvani
HYUNDAI IS ALREADY CARRYING LNG, DO YOU KNOW ⁉️Ranks analytical crew welcomes everyone! Today we will analyze the shares of a curious subsidiary of the automaker Hyundai from South Korea. Hyundai Glovis Co Ltd (#GLOVS) – Ranks score - 94 % The company operates in 3 sectors: 🔘 Logistics (auto parts and industrial goods) 🔘 Ocean cargo transportation (auto and industrial goods) 🔘 Distribution (used cars and metals) Future businesses that the company plans to develop: 🔘 Smart logistics (using the Internet of Things) 🔘 Hydrogen business (logistics of hydrogen transportation) 🔘 Used electric car batteries (transportation and processing) Why is it interesting to Ranks analysts ❓ 🥇 The company is a major logistics operator of international cargo terminals + participates in the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) 🥈 The company has an outstanding financial position + it pays dividends 🥉 Valuation multipliers are very attractive + 94% of analysts recommend buying What are the risks ❓ ❌ The company reported worse than expected earnings in the 3rd quarter ❌ Global fuel cost growth limits profitability
KRX:086280Long
by Ranksworld
Possible BOIL Cup and Handle in formation ENERGY PLAY LONGBOIL could be setting up a long continuation trade Now working on the handle. MACD shows the lines crossed while under the histogram is very often an excellent sign. Time will tell- My preferred trade will be call options expiring in late January or February. ( This is a triple-leveraged natural gas play with the upcoming winter heating season expected to be expensive especially in Europe. The inverse is KOLD which would be a good put option right now.) AMEX:BOIL
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
LNG Natural Gas Energy Play LongAMEX:LNG LNG having trended down with the fall in the price of natural gas is now sitting in the support zone. I anticipate an up-trending retracement to potentially as up as the resistance zone. Rising relative volume and rising relative strength lend support to a reversal as does the consolidation in the price of natural gas after a recent fall. As a swing long trade the stop loss is below the support zone with the first target of about $ 160 or a 50% retracement and the final target at $ 167 before resistance.
LLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
XNGUSD ready to reverse recent downtrend LONGGLOBALPRIME:XNGUSD XNGUSD a few weeks back downtrended afer breaking the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern down to the support of a double bottom formed in early August. Volume profiles are added to the 30 minute chart. I see an uptrend retracement of the recent downtrend and accordingly the following: Stop Loss at 7.64 just below the recent swing low Target 1 8.59 the bottom of the high volume areas and near the Fib 0.382 Target 2 8.84 just under the Fib 0.50 Target 3 9.15 just under the POCs of the volume profiles and the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. Fundamentals: decreasing DXY will cause a relative rise in commodities; winter is coming storage of compressed NG is underway and increasing demand. All is all, this forex pair is ready for a long trade.
XLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull?The terms "bullish" and "bearish" when used on Twitter and TradingView and in the media are more or less just poorly positioned synonyms for "going up" or "going down." Yet, it's a misnomer because some of the craziest pumps you'll ever see are during bear markets, and some of the craziest dump-a-thons you'll ever endure are during the most parabolic bull markets. Right now, the energy world is ablaze because the Russian Federation has more or less cut Europe out of Nord Stream 1 while Europe is already in the middle of an exceptional energy crisis, wrought by its own choices to follow the globalist-communist bloc in trying to punish Putin for a war in Ukraine that roots back to more than a decade of U.S.-NATO-led pot-stirring. News like this causes Europe's natural gas futures to print remarkably stupid prices, making a huge amount of widows from those who were trading short, and energy companies who are paying those prices and yet cannot charge those prices to the end user because of socialist command economy policies placed by the government. However, for North America's Henry Hub futures, Europe needing gas doesn't really help, because the Freeport terminal that's really the only place that LNG gets exported in any meaningful quantity blew up in July. It was supposed to come back online in October. And yet, news of its delay until at least November already printed on Aug. 23. Taking a look at the monthly, you can see that NG is still, really, historically cheap: The Biden Administration is going to donate a great quantity of natural gas to Europe once Freeport is back online. In my view, we're going to see a new all-time high print. Something that starts with the number "2." But before we get there, it's important to keep a cool head, and ask yourself: if Freeport has been offline since July and was set to come back online in October, why does price meander in this $8-9.50 range so early? Taking a look at the weekly provides some context: Before Freeport blew up in the first place, NG was flirting with $9. Once it blew up, it immediately took a three week liquidation spree to $5.50, with the worst part of that trip occurring on the final day of June as monthly futures contracts settled. Then it bounced. And for a commodity whose market maker usually likes to whip it up and down and gap up and gap down with violence on daily and weekly opens, it really just went in a straight line back to $9. Expanding down to the daily, it's even more obvious how much this traded like the SPX500 does when the Fed's money printer is doing work so that 75 year old men can mash buy and take a nap: And now here we are, entering the second week of September post-Labor Day. All the propaganda outlets and pundits crank the sirens, chanting, "Europe Natural Gas Utilities Crisis Russia Gazprom Texas Heatwave High Pressure Heat Dome California Electric Grid Shortage!!!" And all of that is true, just like all of that was true for WTI Crude when it traded at $125 for two months. And yet somehow, despite the fundamentals and all the pundits calling for $180 and $350 BECAUSE REASON S, oil is down 30% and it still isn't finished dumping. So, why is it? It's not hard to figure out. It really isn't. Retail buys high because they see confirmation that something is going up, and then panic sells when it gets rugged. And then when it goes back up they mash buy at a higher price than they sold at because of "Fear of Missing Out," and then they don't sell when they're in profit because their target on the SPX is 12,836 because Gann and Elliot said so, and everyone wants to be that guy you hear about who bought Google at $2 and held it for 20 years while playing golf. If Shell or Exxon traded like that, they would be bankrupt, none of us would have electricity to read these words, and we'd all either die from heat exhaustion or freeze to death without AC and furnaces. The reality is that when NG dumped at the end of July, it still didn't dump deep enough to enter a discount in this overall trading range. We've simply been watching what is still currently the 7th straight week of premium trading. If Natural Gas is going to go to $20 when Biden starts donating energy to save NATO's European arms, it really would make a lot more sense if some time were spent so companies and funds could accumulate a significant position at a relative discount. And indeed, there are at least two fat and curiously unchallenged double bottoms presented in the 4H chart that just happen to be in the sub-50% dealing range and at a price so low that it will have margin calling and leave ZeroHedge and Javier Blas from Bloomberg and friends in bewildered disbelief as to how energy commodities aren't worth anything "in a recession." I often say that what a person thinks can happen and what is actually happening in this world and this Universe are simply two totally different things. A human being is heavily deceived by the slow grind of time and the ostensible appearance before their eyes. Reality, on the other hand, simply follows a certain law and it will complete itself according to that law no matter how anyone cries about it. Whoever is in harmony with the law will establish themselves, and whoever is afoul of the law will get liquidated. The caveat to this chart is time. I can only fit so many 4H candles in a window and so the time on this chart only extends into early October. These lower prices, if they really come, could happen later in October or even in November. And while it'll really be quite the opportunity, it's also a "second mouse gets the cheese" kind of thing for those who are trying to get long for the moon at $7 and $6.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
8
LNG almost hitting my TP 182 posted last April 17@ 3.618 FiboI made a forecast last April 17,2022 that LNG will be hitting 182. At that time LNG already had A BIG RALLY & seemed to be topping out but actually it was making a FLAG CONSOLIDATION before another run. (I was bashed for that even thought it was only my opinion & not a trading advice) Look how my Fibo levels coincide exactly with ALL important levels in chart. In the coming weeks or months, LNG may have to supply Europe with cargoes of LNG at a premium price since Russia had cut off Europe”s LNG supply & winter is coming. Not trading advice
LLong
by xtremerider8
BOIL beginning a round bottom reversal LONGAMEX:BOIL BOIL a triple leveraged ETF based on natural gas as a commodity and its futures on the 15-minute chart has begun a round bottom reversal into an uptrend. The AO / Candle indicator confirms this as does the curve of the accumulation /distribution indicator. Fundamentally, natural gas price is rising especially with the DXY dollar value in a mild correction. Winter heating season is upcoming and the energy crisis in Europe accelerating with Russia shutting down ( for now only ?) its remaining active pipeline. Right now long BOIL looks to be an excellent setup.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
Commodities are back, $UNG near breakoutThe natural gas ETF is forming a cup & handle with pivot buy at $31.60. This behavior signals a comeback for stocks in the gas industry. Some of them are NASDAQ:NFE , which I was stopped out in June. NYSE:VET and AMEX:LNG . These 4 are in the top of my watchlist. All are in confirmed uptrends and leading the sector. Several oil stocks also look good but I think that they are just following the gas stocks. I say this as the oil ETF AMEX:USO isn't as near of a new high as AMEX:UNG . Look for stocks with gas exposure.
AMEX:UNGLong
by dpuleo19
2
Canada the big winner of energy?Energy markets are currently trying to find their footing. The loss of Russian crude to sanctions and the war in Ukraine has caused an impulse wave in the market. My last energy post was about the long term more generally being short on oil. Short-term the disruption will cause elevated prices for a while followed by a turndown. Due to growth in energy use worldwide even if the hydrocarbons share of the market shrinks due to green energy demands for decarbonization LNG still overall gets bigger. Waves of price action will depend on supply changes in both quantity and source through that transition. Waves of consumption and thus demand changes affect Europe negatively due to the current Ukrainian war along with emerging markets' needs for energy increasing for the next few decades till 2040. There is an exception if the G7 decides sanctions should stay on Russia long term. If Europe hits its storage targets for LNG and crude for winter they will have a moment to breathe and look around for a long-term solution to their problem. Canada offers a lot of solutions using LNG and could be one of if not the big beneficiary of the long-term needs of an expanding energy market through 2040. Exports on the coasts for LNG from North America generally could fill the gap left by Russia and meet demand from the emerging economies. From the government of Canada's website. "Eighteen LNG export facilities have been proposed in Canada – 13 in British Columbia, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Nova Scotia – with a total proposed export capacity of 216 Million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG (approximately 29 Billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas). Since 2011, 24 LNG projects have been issued long-term export licenses. Canada’s only operational LNG terminal (an import terminal) is Canaport LNG’s regasification import terminal located in Saint John, New Brunswick." Fliping this infrastructure to export will be a big job but if done quickly enough it can be used to avoid the use of coal worldwide in emerging economies and fix Europe's problems during the green transition. To be fair building out base load in the form of Nuclear energy is far more preferable with hydro storage and then variable load in the form of solar and wind. In the opinion of this author however better is better for emissions and short-term use of LNG to limit coal consumption is a good idea. Just don't let the Koch think tanks trumpet their own horn too much. The unfortunate use cases of nuclear fuel for reactors to make bombs as North Korea has demonstrated presents a geopolitical tool that would be far too easy to use and thus is limiting the expansion of the technology. Canada seems positioned to take advantage of exporting its resources to the rest of the world filling a gap left by Russia. It's a good opportunity for Canada. Time will tell if they take advantage of it. All the best, see you on the moon.
NYSE:CNQ
by GreatScottTheMoon
Oil markets and demand destruction.The Russia & Ukraine kerfuffle is opening a gap in supply and demand since February 24th with their invasion. G7 countries will have a common interest in bringing the conflict to a close as the effects begin to weigh on the economy more generally. Emerging markets can take advantage of the situation and build out their consumption infrastructure with cover of high prices. There is a 3.5-4.5 million barrel deficit in supply caused by the Ukraine war. Currently, this deficit is filled by SPR releases from the strategic stockpiles. Crack spreads are widening as demand changes for refined products. There is an 8-9% rise every year in energy consumption world wide due mostly to emerging markets. Market price signals at work. Supply is down rapidly so prices go up followed by demand going away due to high prices and demand destruction occurs either temporarily or long term. Due to sanctions, this particular demand destruction is probably more long-term. Simply put oil gets expensive so people drive less. Miles driven has been dropping for a long time with the rise of SUVs and dropped off a cliff with the pandemic before then recovering. There has been an 8% drop in gas sales in California due to electric cars. General demand destruction is starting to sink in but hasn't gotten a hold yet. Electric cars spreading creates permanent demand destruction thus long-term shorts on oil and gas based energy are good for both the investor and the planet. That being said recent shorts haven't been a good play as the price of oil likely remains elevated or flat through this recession due to the current geopolitical factors at play combined with the inflation narrative. If inflation comes down but remains elevated and supply picks up prices will neutralize and cancel out the forces before turning around completely like lumber. Emerging markets are still the greatest marginal consumer of oil and petroleum products. Such markets demand more energy every year for their growning and modernizing economies. China is currently seeing their transition away due to their malaca problem and has given themselves until 2030 to peak emissions with net-Zero in 2060. India is on the rise and needs to balance energy needs with geopolitical concerns such as an anti-China coalition with the west because something something the specter of communism. What else is new? Africa has just begun their transition to high energy needs along with South Amercia. Fundamental Bearish narratives emerging out of China are weighing on the market but having little effect quite yet. Flight numbers are way down for instance and the real estate kerfuffle continues. However the models were built to predict capitalism so they may not apply perfectly here. India continues to buy Russian crude due to need and that's got the west in a tizzy due to the aforementioned ghost of Christmas past. At least its oil and not their massive coal reserves. Oil might be the key to getting the FED to turn around due to the feedback loop between politicians and the reserve. The market seems to sense this relationship. Any bull thesis will rely on government incompetence on energy narratives. The squabble between political interests will only continue until we can quantify the externalities at play. Let's not rearange the deck chairs on the titanic and focus on the problem. The oil energy industry has lost money on long term investments for year's and finally made some due to the current unique political situation and the pandemic. Politicians need political support from environmentalists so they reasonably take profits from and industry causing externalities for the rest of us. Except for in the good old USA, as we like to ride our nukes into the ground like a bucking bronco thank you very much. Energy corporate profit haircuts accelerate the long term demand destruction which in this authors opinion is a good thing. short term we have elevated prices that will peak and drop as the recession narrative sinks in reinforcing the demand destruction reminding everyone why relying on gas prices at the pump might be a bad political strategy long term. Coming out of the recession the destruction might be permanent reductions in consumption in Europe combined with rising consumption in emerging markets canceling each other out. In short the bearish narrative on the wider market is currently driven by the energy narratives. The market is seeking a way to get the FED to print more free money. Oil prices remaining elevated causing a slow down in the market everyone can blame on a geo political kerfuffle in Ukraine and economic down turn in China, the ghost of christmas future that fits their various energy narratives looks like the current best candidate. Thus elevated crude prices will continue before collapsing with the market as recession becomes the narrative. Ride the short after the turn. All the best, see you on the moon.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GreatScottTheMoon
The best hedge - is growthINVESTMENT CONTEXT In the wake of robust demand despite mounting recession fears, Saudi Aramco hiked its crude oil prices for Asia's market to near record on July 5. In August Arab Light crude price will sit at USD 9.30/boe above the regional benchmark For the first time since May 11, WTI crude oil fell below USD 100/boe. According to Citigroup, oil price could plunge to USD 65boe by the end of this year, while JP Morgan forecasts oil at “stratospheric” USD 380/boe On July 5, the ambassadors of 30 NATO States signed Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden, effectively kicking-off the ratification process, which usually takes one month Inflation in the U.K. hit a fresh 40-year high, standing at 9.1% in June compared with 9.0% in May. The political stability of the country has come under pressure after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid quit the Cabinet, citing divergences with Premier Boris Johnson in the matter of economic policy-making Prices of corn, soybean, wheat, and several other agricultural commodities fell by more than 20% in recent weeks, largely reverting to pre-pandemic levels as financial players unmounted bearish speculative positions Italy declared state of emergency for Northern regions facing the worst draught in 70 years, threatening 30% of Italian agriculture output. PROFONE'S TAKE Following the considerations about record high electricity prices in Europe, ProfOne's eyes are now set on nuclear plants, the development of which matches well with Europe's ambitious plan of energy transition and reduction of the reliance on Russian gas. Yet, as anticipated by ProfZero, a full-scale energy rotation will take time, and relevant capital investments, to happen. The nuclear plant of Olkiluoto in Finland entered construction phase in 2005 while that of Flamanville in France in 2007; both projects haven't been delivered yet, yet costs already exceeded original budgets by up to 3 times. With that in mind, and recalling that costs of renewable technologies based on solar and wind energy are declining, ProfOne understands why nuclear projects have become less attractive for investors. Nuclear requires the elaboration of new financing models and scaling strategies. Some near-term relief may be achieved through expansion of new small reactors, which are faster and easier to build; yet the vast majority of these assets have not fully come online yet. PROFZERO'S TAKE Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, aptly summarized what does it concretely mean to change economic paradigm: "Germany's growth model has been to import cheap energy from Russia, use that to assemble manufactured goods and export those goods to the rest of the world". Now that Russian natural gas deliveries are sputtering, Germany has posted its first monthly trade deficit since 1991, and the country has entered phase 2 of its 3-step energy emergency plan. ProfZero prefers to resist the urge of calling for capitulation; after all the country can re-activate coal-fired while it speeds up the construction of much-needed LNG regasification assets. Yet zooming out, the theme of energy independence is what actually is making the whole difference between the U.S. and the EU - and shall be a likely recurring theme for the next growth paradigm of the entire Western world Seeing crude oil plummeting 10% in one single trading session can only mean that markets are bracing for a recession. Fundamentals don't lie: according to EIA, the world in 2022 will produce more crude oil than it really needs, with forecasted supply at 100.1mboe/d, and demand at 99.6mboe/d. ProfZero points out that one of the virtues of commodity markets lies in price-formation mechanisms strictly tied to basic supply-demand interplay. Sadly, the disruptions in European natural gas are preventing the same from happening; yet should frictions be erased, it is all too rational to expect also TTF to briskly retrace
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Does the Fed matter?INVESTMENT CONTEXT Markets are weighing a possible 75bps rates hike at today's FOMC meeting. Were the Fed to follow suit on traders' expectations, it would be the steepest tightening since 1994 Traders price 255bps rate hikes from the Fed in its five remaining meetings this year China's central bank refrained from cutting the interest rate to protect yuan from policy divergence with the U.S. Freeport LNG announced its Texas assets will remain offline until September, and recover to full operations only in early 2023. Freeport LNG represents 10% of European seaborne energy supplies Russia plans to reduce capacity of gas supply on Nord Stream pipeline by 40% The U.S. extended till December 5 (instead of June 24) the validity of the license "authorizing transactions related to energy" to Russian entities under sanctions Coinbase (COIN) will shed a fifth of its staff amidst the rout in blockchain assets. COIN shares are down 85% from IPO price tag PROFZERO'S TAKE While ProfOne ponders whether monetary policy is really the right place to look at to solve a crisis which is wholly industrial in nature, ProfZero keeps reminding that fixed income markets have taken for granted for too long the support from Central Banks. To see Italy now trying to roll over its debt without the safety net laid by the ECB will be a thing to behold - hopefully, only for positive reasons Russia pulling the plug on gas while the U.S. quietly offers the means to avoid a much-spooked default; the channels of diplomacy are apparently running on a real low profile - but with what endgame in mind? While speaking at the TechCrunch Sessions on June 15, Bill Gates characterized cryptocurrencies and NFTs as a market driven by sentiment. “As an asset class, it’s 100% based on the greater fool theory - that somebody’s going to pay more for it than I do”, he argued. Indeed, the faith of blockchain asset holders is being put to test - just as much as in March 2020 or in the ICO crash of 2017. Even through this, ProfZero sticks by its mantra: always look at the fundamentals. While hype has definitely played a role ever since the infancy of the blockchain industry, the merits of the technology are there to be seen - if in doubt, ask any trader how a transaction is processed, and how many operational risks are taken at each and every step. Also Mr. Gates' understanding of NFTs leaves ProfZero dubious: the market of fine arts has left dusty auction houses and brought artists closer to investors, while beyond that, tokenization is nothing but the zeitgeist of the post-consumeristic era. Is this a call to BTC to USD 1mln (like Microstrategy's Michael Saylor reiterated recently)? Absolutely not. It is a call - to stay focused on the only thing that matters - value PROFONE'S TAKE Markets are waiting for today's decision of Federal Reserve about the next step of its rates-rising campaign. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said the Fed could help restore market confidence if it raises rates by 75bps today and in July - yet he also advised that 100bps would be better. On a markedly wilder note, investment manager Jeffrey Gundlach urged the Fed to take rates to 3% in one go - today. Amidst such notorious opinions, ProfOne's question is - does the Fed really matter? Actual inflation is one of fundamentals (energy and food); in May the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasted inflation to cool to 2.7% only in 2023, implying that by the end or 2022 we may expect the figure to settle hardly lower than 5%. As argued also by ProfZero, this crisis is different from 2008 or 2020 - it is a crisis of the very industrial system that has been working for the last 20 years. Certainly monetary policy can and is providing already its contribution. But finance can't magically restructure energy, food and technology supply chains built in decades. There was a time when Wall Street was thought to make money just by waving its magic wand; the Great Financial Crisis brought that sorcery show to an end. Hopefully, we won't repeat the same mistake again
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero