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$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 CPI Day: August Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM — the main macro print of the week. 🚩 ECB Decision: 8:15 AM ET — Europe’s call on rates adds global cross-asset volatility. 📉 Labor + growth mix: Jobless claims alongside CPI sharpen the Fed outlook. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ECB Rate Decision ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (CPI, Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #CPI #ECB #inflation #Fed #jobs #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 12, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 12, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Markets digest 🚩 CPI + ECB shocks — Friday closes the week with sentiment checks. 🚩 Consumer mood in focus: UMich prelim survey drives inflation expectations + spending tone. 📦 Trade & price gauges: Import/export prices fill in the inflation picture post-CPI/PPI. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import & Export Prices (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Sept) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #UMich #inflation #Fed #consumer #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 PPI Hits: August Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM — critical input for inflation trend into CPI (Thu). 📈 Yields in focus: Bond market watching supply + inflation mix; $TLT/ TVC:TNX extra sensitive. 💬 Fed chatter: Post-Apple event, markets shift back to Fed data dependency into next week’s FOMC. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Aug) ⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly) ⏰ 10:30 AM — EIA Petroleum Status Report ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PPI #inflation #Fed #bonds #energy #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Small Biz Pulse: NFIB report before the open — insight into hiring & inflation expectations. 🍏 Apple Mega-Cap Event: 1 PM ET — expected iPhone 17 lineup, Apple Watch, AirPods updates. Mega-cap headline risk for NASDAQ:AAPL and $XLK. 📉 Tape Watch: Traders positioning ahead of 🚩 PPI (Wed) and 🚩 CPI (Thu). 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Jul, rev.) ⏰ 🍏 1:00 PM — Apple Product Launch Event ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #AAPL #AppleEvent #NFIB #inflation #tech #MegaCap
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 5, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Jobs Friday = make or break. Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment, and wages will lock in Fed expectations into September. 📉 Positioning light ahead of NFP — futures choppy as traders square books. 💬 Consumer sentiment wraps the week — expectations on inflation and spending will color the tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Unemployment Rate (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Average Hourly Earnings (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Trade (Jul) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #jobs #labor #Fed #economy #bonds #Dollar
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 4, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 4, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Markets on edge after ADP + Beige Book — traders want to see if Thursday’s labor + growth data confirm a slowdown. 🏦 Treasury supply + Fed tone continue to steer $TLT/$TNX. ⚙️ Productivity & costs add another layer to the inflation debate. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Trade Balance (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q2, rev.) ⏰ 11:00 AM — Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #joblessclaims #labor #economy #bonds
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏦 Traders bracing for a labor + Fed double header — ADP jobs and the Beige Book will steer rate-cut odds into Friday’s NFP. 📉 Stocks drifted Tuesday post-JOLTS miss — markets looking for confirmation of labor cooling. 💻 Tech earnings rotation continues — volatility in AMEX:XLK spilling into broader tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment Report (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services PMI (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #ADP #BeigeBook #Fed #labor #ISM #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Crypto Market Approaching Support, While Finishing A CorrectionGood morning Crypto traders! Crypto market continues to slow down due to consolidation in stocks, but notice that the US dollar remains bearish, while gold is experiencing a strong bullish breakout. This suggests that we are still in a risk-on environment, meaning stocks could continue higher, while cryptocurrencies may soon stabilize. Crypto TOTAL market cap chart now appears to be approaching the key 3.6 - 3.5T support area within a three-wave ABC correction for wave 4, from where bulls for wave 5 may show up again, especially considering that the NASDAQ could be completing a bullish running triangle, while the US dollar index (DXY) is forming a bearish one.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by ew-forecast
“Layers of Liquidity: The Hidden Brushstrokes in XAUUSD”“Layers of Liquidity: The Hidden Brushstrokes in XAUUSD” When I observe this chart, it feels much like studying a Renaissance painting—full of depth, contrast, and hidden meaning. Every candle tells a story, just like brushstrokes on a canvas. The strong support zone at 3260–3300 acts like the foundation of the painting, the solid base on which the entire composition stands. Just as an artist relies on balance in structure, the market relies on this level for equilibrium. The resistance zone near 3440–3460 resembles the sky in a painting—bright and tempting, yet out of reach for now. The fake breakout projected above this level can be compared to an illusion of light in art: it draws the eye upward, but the truth lies in the shadow beneath. Every higher low crafted along the way mirrors the gradual layering technique used by master painters, building depth and strength in the image. It is not a random stroke—it’s deliberate, showing that buyers are stepping in consistently, giving the chart rhythm and structure. The liquidity sweep resembles the hidden symbolism often placed in classical artworks. At first glance, it might look chaotic, but its purpose is intentional—to trap participants and prepare for the next phase of movement. From an educational perspective, this chart demonstrates that markets, like art, are a mixture of illusion and reality. Breakouts may be false, supports may be tested, but the true skill lies in learning how to interpret these strokes. Just as art critics read the layers of paint, traders must read the layers of price action.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mentor_Michael03
1
Technical Analysis Report for the NIFTY 50 INDEX.# NIFTY 50 Technical Analysis: Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Executive Summary Current Price: 24,433.65 (August 29, 2025, 1:5 PM UTC+4) Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish with Consolidation Bias Primary Trend: Uptrend with potential for continued advancement Key Resistance: 25,000 (psychological level and technical confluence) The NIFTY 50 continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of global uncertainties, maintaining its position above key support levels while approaching significant psychological resistance. The index benefits from accommodative monetary policy with the RBI's recent rate cuts and strong domestic fundamentals, though valuations warrant selective positioning. Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop Monetary Policy Environment The Reserve Bank of India has cut its repo rate by 0.25%, which now stands at 6.25%, marking a significant shift in policy stance. Markets expect the RBI may implement one more 25-bps rate cut in August 2025, especially ahead of the festive season which historically shows multiplier effects on consumer demand. Economic Fundamentals India's GDP expanded 7.80 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year, demonstrating robust economic growth. The RBI expects real GDP to grow 6.5% in FY 2025-26, supported by strong domestic demand and government capital expenditures. Inflation and Growth Balance Headline inflation in India is expected to average 4.2% year-on-year in the 2025 calendar year, with food inflation at 4.6% — much lower than estimates of 7%-plus for 2024, thanks to adequate rainfall and good sowing. Earnings Outlook Consensus expects 11-12% earnings growth for the Nifty 50 in FY26, with the index trading below 20x price-earnings on FY26 estimates, suggesting reasonable valuations at current levels. Technical Analysis Framework Japanese Candlestick Analysis Weekly Pattern: Spinning top formation indicating indecision at current levels Daily Pattern: Small-bodied candles with narrow ranges suggesting consolidation Intraday Patterns: Hammer and doji formations prevalent in 1H and 4H timeframes Volume Confirmation: Average volume during consolidation phase Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Wave Count: Major Degree: Wave 5 of larger bull market cycle potentially in progress Intermediate Degree: Subwave 3 of 5 showing extension characteristics Minor Degree: Currently in subwave 4 correction of intermediate wave 3 Alternative Count: Complex correction (WXY) completion targeting 25,200-25,500 Critical Support: Wave 4 support at 23,800-24,000 maintains bullish structure Harmonic Pattern Analysis Active Patterns: Bullish Gartley: Potential completion zone at 23,950-24,100 ABCD Pattern: Current formation targeting 24,800-25,000 Potential Cypher: Formation developing with D point near 25,100 Fibonacci Analysis: - 50% retracement of major swing: 24,200 - 38.2% retracement: 24,500 (current consolidation area) - 1.618 extension target: 24,900-25,000 Wyckoff Method Analysis Phase Assessment: Accumulation Phase C - Testing supply Characteristics: - Volume patterns showing accumulation on weakness - Price holding above composite operator accumulation zone - Sign of Strength (SOS) evident on recent advances Distribution Risk: Monitor for climactic volume above 25,000 W.D. Gann Technical Analysis # Square of 9 Application Current Position: 24,433.65 = 156.31° on the Gann wheel Key Resistance Levels: - 24,481 (156.5°) - immediate minor resistance - 24,649 (157°) - intermediate resistance - 25,000 (158.11°) - major psychological and geometric resistance Support Levels: - 24,336 (156°) - immediate support - 24,025 (155°) - strong support zone - 23,716 (154°) - major support level # Time Theory Application Critical Time Windows: - September 9-12: 45-degree time angle from recent high - September 23: Autumn equinox - natural market turning point - October 8-15: 90-degree time cycle completion # Price and Time Squaring Square Root Analysis: √24,433.65 = 156.31 Next Square Levels: - 157² = 24,649 (key resistance) - 158² = 24,964 (approaching 25,000) - 160² = 25,600 (extended target) Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Cloud Configuration: Tenkan-sen (9): 24,445 - Price slightly below, neutral Kijun-sen (26): 24,380 - Price above, mild bullish bias Senkou Span A: 24,412 (cloud top) Senkou Span B: 24,100 (cloud bottom) Assessment: Price trading within cloud, indicating consolidation phase with neutral bias pending breakout direction. Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicator Analysis 5-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) RSI(14): 49.2 - Neutral territory with no momentum bias VWAP: 24,428 - Price oscillating around VWAP Bollinger Bands: Middle band at 24,430, bands contracting (low volatility period) Moving Averages: EMA(20) = 24,435, SMA(20) = 24,440 15-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) MACD: Near zero line, histogram flat - no clear momentum Stochastic(14,3,3): 52.1 in neutral zone Williams %R: -48% indicating no extreme conditions Volume: Below average, typical for consolidation Key Intraday Levels: Resistance: 24,460, 24,490, 24,520 Support: 24,400, 24,370, 24,340 1-Hour Chart (Day Trading) RSI(14): 54.3 - Slight bullish bias but not overbought VWAP: 24,415 providing dynamic support ADX(14): 22.1 indicating weak trend strength (consolidation) Volume Profile: High volume node at 24,380-24,450 Trading Range: Upper Boundary: 24,520-24,550 Lower Boundary: 24,320-24,350 Breakout Levels: Above 24,580 (bullish) / Below 24,280 (bearish) 4-Hour Chart (Swing Trading) RSI(14): 57.8 showing mild bullish momentum MACD: Positive but flattening, momentum slowing Bollinger Bands: Price near middle band, bands parallel (range-bound) Moving Averages: All short-term MAs converging around current price Swing Levels: Primary Resistance: 24,650-24,700 Secondary Resistance: 24,900-25,000 Primary Support: 24,200-24,250 Secondary Support: 24,000-24,050 Daily Chart (Position Trading) RSI(14): 59.4 in bullish territory but not extreme MACD: Positive with slight bullish divergence Volume: Consolidation pattern with below-average volume Pattern: Symmetrical triangle formation approaching apex Key Daily Levels: Triangle Resistance: 24,700-24,750 (declining) Triangle Support: 24,150-24,200 (rising) Breakout Targets: 25,200 (upside) / 23,600 (downside) Weekly Chart (Long-term Analysis) RSI(14): 63.2 showing healthy bullish momentum MACD: Positive momentum but rate of change slowing Long-term Trend: Intact uptrend since March 2020 low Major Resistance: 25,000-25,200 zone Monthly Chart (Strategic Perspective) RSI(14): 68.1 approaching overbought levels Long-term Pattern: Multi-year ascending triangle completion Major Support: 22,000-22,500 zone Extended Targets: 26,000-27,000 on sustained breakout Comprehensive Support and Resistance Analysis Primary Support Zones 1. 24,380-24,420: Kijun-sen and VWAP confluence zone 2. 24,320-24,350: Previous consolidation low and volume support 3. 24,200-24,250: 50% Fibonacci retracement and psychological level 4. 24,100-24,150: Cloud bottom and structural support 5. 24,000-24,050: Major psychological level and trend line support 6. 23,800-23,900: Elliott Wave 4 support and major trend line 7. 23,600-23,700: Extended support and breakout failure target Primary Resistance Zones 1. 24,460-24,490: Immediate intraday resistance 2. 24,520-24,580: Short-term resistance and breakout level 3. 24,650-24,700: Triangle resistance and swing high 4. 24,850-24,900: Intermediate resistance zone 5. 24,950-25,000: Major psychological resistance and Square of 9 6. 25,100-25,200: Extended targets and measured moves 7. 25,500-25,800: Long-term bull market targets Weekly Trading Strategy (September 2-6, 2025) Monday, September 2, 2025 Market Environment: Post-weekend consolidation, range-bound expected Primary Strategy: Range trading within established boundaries Volatility: Low to moderate, typical Monday characteristics Intraday Setup: Range: 24,380-24,480 Long Entry: 24,390-24,410 - Stop Loss: 24,360 - Target 1: 24,450 (1:1.5 R/R) - Target 2: 24,480 (1:2.5 R/R) Short Entry: 24,470-24,490 - Stop Loss: 24,520 - Target 1: 24,430 (1:1.5 R/R) - Target 2: 24,400 (1:2.5 R/R) Swing Consideration: Monitor for breakout preparation above 24,500 Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Environment: Increased activity expected, potential trending day Primary Strategy: Momentum trading with breakout preparation Key Focus: Volume analysis for sustained directional moves Trading Scenarios: Bullish Breakout: Above 24,520 with volume - Entry: 24,530-24,550 - Stop: 24,480 - Targets: 24,600, 24,650, 24,700 Bearish Breakdown: Below 24,360 with volume - Entry: 24,350-24,330 - Stop: 24,390 - Targets: 24,280, 24,250, 24,200 Risk Management: Reduce position size by 25% on breakout trades Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Environment: Mid-week volatility, economic data focus Primary Strategy: News-driven trading with technical confirmation Event Risk: Monitor for any economic announcements Scalping Strategy: High-Frequency Range: 24,400-24,460 Long Scalps: 24,405-24,415, Target: 24,445-24,455 Short Scalps: 24,450-24,460, Target: 24,415-24,425 Stop Loss: Maximum 20 points for scalp trades Swing Setup: Prepare for potential triangle breakout Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Environment: Potential high-volatility day Primary Strategy: Breakout trading with strong risk management Focus: Triangle resolution expected Triangle Breakout Strategy: Upside Breakout: Above 24,580 - Confirmation: Volume > 1.3x average - Initial Target: 24,700 - Extended Target: 24,850-24,900 Downside Breakdown: Below 24,280 - Confirmation: Volume > 1.2x average - Initial Target: 24,150 - Extended Target: 24,000-24,050 Position Management: Trail stops after 50% of target achieved Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Environment: Weekly settlement, profit-taking likely Primary Strategy: End-of-week positioning and profit-taking Focus: Weekly close levels for next week setup Settlement Strategy: Bullish Close: Above 24,500 supports next week advance Neutral Close: 24,350-24,500 maintains consolidation Bearish Close: Below 24,350 suggests correction risk Day Trading Approach: Morning: Follow Thursday's direction initially Afternoon: Expect consolidation and position adjustments Last Hour: Avoid large new positions Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Guidelines Risk Per Trade by Timeframe: 5M Scalping: 0.25-0.5% of capital 15M Scalping: 0.5-0.75% of capital 1H Day Trading: 1-1.5% of capital 4H Swing Trading: 1.5-2% of capital Daily Position Trading: 2-2.5% of capital Stop Loss Framework Timeframe-Specific Stops: 5-Minute: 15-25 points maximum 15-Minute: 25-40 points maximum 1-Hour: 40-60 points maximum 4-Hour: 80-120 points maximum Daily: 150-250 points maximum Profit-Taking Strategy Systematic Approach: Target 1 (40%): 1:1 Risk/Reward Target 2 (35%): 1:2 Risk/Reward Target 3 (25%): 1:3+ Risk/Reward Trailing Stops: Activate after Target 1 Maximum Drawdown Limits Daily Loss Limit: 3% of trading capital Weekly Loss Limit: 7% of trading capital Monthly Loss Limit: 15% of trading capital Geopolitical and Economic Risk Assessment Domestic Risk Factors Monetary Policy: - RBI rate cut cycle supporting liquidity - Inflation targeting maintaining credibility - Banking system stability considerations Fiscal Policy: - Government capex supporting growth - Festive season spending boost expected - Budget allocation efficiency focus Corporate Earnings: - Q2 FY26 earnings season approaching - Margin pressure from input costs - Sectoral rotation opportunities Global Risk Factors US Federal Reserve Policy: - Rate cut expectations supporting EM flows - Dollar weakness benefiting Indian markets - Global liquidity conditions favorable China Economic Impact: - Trade relationship developments - Commodity price implications - Regional growth spillover effects Geopolitical Considerations: - Regional security stability - Energy security and pricing - Trade policy developments Sector-Specific Risks Banking & Financial Services: - Credit growth sustainability - NPA cycle management - Interest rate sensitivity Information Technology: - Global demand patterns - Currency hedging strategies - AI and automation impact Consumer Discretionary: - Rural demand recovery - Festive season performance - Inflation impact on spending Sectoral Analysis and Rotation Themes Outperforming Sectors 1. Banking & Financial Services: Rate cut cycle benefits 2. FMCG: Festive season demand and rural recovery 3. Infrastructure: Government capex and policy support 4. Pharmaceuticals: Export competitiveness and domestic growth Underperforming Sectors 1. Information Technology: Global demand concerns 2. Metals & Mining: Commodity price volatility 3. Real Estate: Interest rate sensitivity despite cuts 4. Telecommunications: Competitive pressure and capex burden Rotation Indicators Growth vs Value: Favoring quality growth at reasonable prices Large Cap vs Mid/Small Cap: Large cap leadership maintained Domestic vs Export: Domestic consumption themes outperforming Advanced Technical Patterns Ichimoku Trading Signals Current Setup: Price within cloud, neutral bias Bullish Trigger: Break above Tenkan-sen with volume Bearish Trigger: Break below cloud with momentum Long-term View: Future cloud remains bullish Gann-Based Strategies Square of 9 Trades: - Long: 155° (24,025) targeting 158° (24,964) - Short: 158° (24,964) targeting 155° (24,025) - Time Cycles: September 9-12 reversal window Wyckoff Phase Trading Current Phase: Accumulation Phase C Next Phase: Markup expected on successful test Volume Confirmation: Key for phase transition Distribution Risk: Monitor above 25,200 Market Microstructure Analysis Algorithmic Trading Impact High-Activity Zones: 24,000, 24,500, 25,000 levels Optimal Entry Times: 9:15-9:45 and 14:30-15:15 IST Liquidity Patterns: Reduced depth during lunch hours Order Flow Considerations Institutional Activity: Accumulation evident below 24,400 FII Flows: Recent buying supporting current levels DII Participation: Consistent buying on weakness Technology and Tools Integration Recommended Platforms 1. TradingView: Advanced charting and technical analysis 2. Zerodha Kite: Real-time execution and portfolio management 3. Bloomberg Terminal: Comprehensive market data and news 4. Refinitiv Workspace: Fundamental analysis integration Alert Configuration Price Alerts: - Triangle breakout: 24,580 (up) / 24,280 (down) - Psychological levels: 24,500, 25,000 - Support/resistance: 24,200, 24,700 Volume Alerts: - Unusual volume spikes (>150% average) - Block deal notifications - Institutional flow changes Seasonal and Calendar Considerations Festive Season Impact Indian markets are entering the 4-month-long festive season from September, which historically shows positive performance. This period typically sees: - Increased consumer spending - Corporate bonus distributions - Portfolio rebalancing by institutions - Higher retail participation Economic Calendar Key Events: - RBI Monetary Policy (likely September 17) - Q2 FY26 GDP data (October/November) - Inflation data (monthly releases) - FII/DII flow data (weekly) Holiday Calendar - Ganesh Chaturthi (September 7) - Market closed - Dussehra (October 12) - Market closed - Diwali (November 1) - Market closed - Guru Nanak Jayanti (November 15) - Market closed Conclusion and Strategic Outlook The NIFTY 50 stands at a critical juncture, consolidating near significant resistance levels while benefiting from supportive monetary and fiscal policies. The technical picture suggests a healthy consolidation phase that could resolve in favor of further upside, particularly given the approaching festive season and improving economic fundamentals. Key Investment Themes: 1. Triangle Resolution: Current consolidation likely to resolve with directional clarity 2. Festive Season Tailwinds: Historical patterns favor bullish bias into year-end 3. Rate Cut Benefits: Lower rates supporting equity valuations and credit growth 4. Earnings Growth: Expected double-digit growth supporting index advancement Trading Strategy Priorities: - Focus on triangle breakout trades with volume confirmation - Favor range trading until clear directional break - Maintain disciplined risk management given elevated levels - Prepare for increased volatility around key events Medium-term Outlook (1-3 months): The combination of accommodative monetary policy, strong GDP growth, controlled inflation, and seasonal tailwinds provides a constructive backdrop for Indian equities. Technical analysis suggests potential for advancement toward 25,500-26,000 on sustained breakout above current resistance. Risk Management Focus: - Triangle breakdown below 24,280 could target 24,000-23,800 - Global risk-off sentiment remains key external risk - Valuation concerns at higher levels warrant selectivity - Currency stability important for FII flow continuation The analysis incorporates multiple technical methodologies while acknowledging the strong fundamental backdrop supporting Indian markets. Traders should remain flexible and prepared for both continuation and reversal scenarios while maintaining strict adherence to risk management protocols. --- *This comprehensive analysis combines technical and fundamental factors to provide actionable trading strategies. All recommendations should be implemented within individual risk tolerance parameters and current market conditions. Market dynamics can change rapidly, requiring continuous monitoring and strategy adjustments.*
NSE:NIFTY
by sunya
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🔥 Fed’s favorite inflation gauge hits: PCE arrives just as markets digest Powell’s Jackson Hole tone. 💵 Consumer under the microscope: Spending & income data reveal demand strength heading into fall. 🏭 Regional PMI wrap: Chicago PMI closes out August with a manufacturing pulse check. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — PCE Price Index (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Jul) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #inflation #Fed #bonds #economy #PMI #consumerconfidence
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Aug 28, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Aug 28, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏔️ Jackson Hole aftershocks: Markets still digest Powell’s stance; cut odds for September in focus. 📉 GDP revision risk: Growth momentum under the microscope with Q2 update. 🛠️ Labor market cooling? Jobless claims set the tone into Friday’s PCE. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). ⏰ 8:30 AM — GDP (Q2, 2nd Estimate). ⏰ 11:00 AM — Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #GDP #joblessclaims #JacksonHole #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🇺🇸➡️🇮🇳 U.S. slaps 50% tariffs on Indian goods (textiles, gems, leather, machinery) starting today — inflation & trade ripple risk. 💻 Earnings spotlight: Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Alibaba reporting this week → tech volatility in focus. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ All Day — U.S. Treasury Auctions (10-year note, 5-year note + FRN). ⏰ 11:45 AM — Richmond Fed Pres. Tom Barkin speaks. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #tariffs #India #Treasury #earnings #tech #Nvidia
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Tuesday, August 26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Tuesday, August 26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Post-Jackson Hole digestion 🏔️ → markets recalibrate. Traders continue parsing Powell’s keynote; the path of cuts into September remains the dominant driver for $SPY/$TLT/$DXY. Durables in focus ✈️📦. Core capital goods orders (non-defense ex-air) are the cleanest read on business investment; softness fuels cut odds, strength = “higher-for-longer.” Housing affordability squeeze 🏠. Case-Shiller and pending sales provide a 2-sided look at price momentum vs. turnover; AMEX:XHB and AMEX:XLY key tickers. Consumer mood check 🛒😬. Conference Board Confidence frames labor market sentiment and forward spending intentions. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Jul) Consensus: ~-0.3% headline; core orders expected flat/slightly positive. Why it matters: Big-ticket spending → business cycle pulse. 9:00 AM — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jun) Prior: +6.0% y/y. Why it matters: Tracks housing inflation pressure; feeds into consumer wealth effect. 10:00 AM — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug) Prior: 100.3. Why it matters: Labor perceptions & spending intentions → AMEX:XLY sentiment. 10:00 AM — Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (Aug) Regional check on factory activity; complements durables. 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Jul) Prior: -4.1% m/m. Why it matters: Leading indicator of housing turnover; affordability squeeze. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #durablegoods #housing #consumerconfidence #Fed #DXY #TLT
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Themes Jackson Hole aftermath 🏔️ Powell’s Friday keynote sets the tone. Markets will trade on whether he opened the door to a September cut or stuck to a cautious stance. Expect chop in AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:TLT , TVC:DXY as traders recalibrate. Inflation & Jobs 🔥💼 Fresh PCE inflation and jobless claims anchor the week. Any upside surprise revives “higher-for-longer”; softness = fuel for cut odds. Retail earnings wrap 🛒 With $WMT/$TGT/ NYSE:HD behind us, discounters and specialty retailers close the season. AMEX:XRT stays a barometer of consumer resilience. Housing & confidence 🏠📉 Pending Home Sales + Conference Board Confidence will test sentiment in an affordability squeeze backdrop. Watch AMEX:XHB , $XLY. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 📅 Monday, Aug 25 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 AM) – broad growth pulse. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM) – regional check. 📅 Tuesday, Aug 26 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM) – capex signal; core ex-transport key. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:00 AM) – factory health in Mid-Atlantic. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM) – housing momentum. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM) – labor intentions, rate sentiment. 📅 Wednesday, Aug 27 MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 AM) – weekly mortgage pulse. Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM) – trade, inventories, wholesale. Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM) – affordability and turnover test. Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM) – $CL_F/ AMEX:XLE driver. 📅 Thursday, Aug 28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – labor cooling watch. GDP (2nd Estimate, Q2) (8:30 AM) – growth momentum, revisions matter. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11:00 AM) – regional survey. 📅 Friday, Aug 29 PCE Price Index (Jul, 8:30 AM) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Personal Income & Outlays (8:30 AM) – consumer demand and savings rates. Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) – manufacturing signal ahead of ISM next week. UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, 10:00 AM) – inflation expectations track. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #SPY #SPX #Fed #PCE #GDP #Housing #Confidence #Energy #Bonds #Dollar
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Friday, August 22, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Friday, August 22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote is the main event (10:00 AM ET). Markets want clarity on the path to cuts and any framework tweaks; the Fed’s own calendar lists the speech and KC Fed confirms the Aug 21–23 agenda. $SPY/$TLT/ TVC:DXY are the most sensitive. Risk tone turned cautious into the speech. Stocks faded Thursday as traders de-risked ahead of Powell; positioning is tight and headline-sensitive. Dollar firm / gold steady into Jackson Hole. Classic pre-keynote safety bid; futures price a high probability of a September cut, keeping two-way risk for rates and equities. Global cues: Japan CPI lands overnight; UK retail sales postponed. Japan’s July inflation print hits before U.S. cash open; the U.K.’s July retail sales were pushed to Sep 5, trimming one macro catalyst from the tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 10:00 AM — Fed Chair Powell @ Jackson Hole (Keynote). Why it matters: Sets near-term curve path and risk appetite; watch $TLT/ TVC:TNX and TVC:DXY → AMEX:SPY reaction. 1:00 PM — Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count. Why it matters: Energy activity → supply expectations → $CL_F/ AMEX:XLE ; persistent rig drift can nudge inflation expectations. (Released weekly at noon CT/1 PM ET.) Overnight — Japan CPI (Jul). Why it matters: Yen rates and global FX spillovers; a surprise could ripple into U.S. risk before the keynote. All day — Jackson Hole Symposium continues. Why it matters: Secondary speakers can color post-Powell reaction as positioning resets. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #JacksonHole #Powell #DXY #TLT #Gold #Energy #RigCount
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Thursday, August 21, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Thursday, August 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Tech jitters spill as Jackson Hole kicks off. Global equities slipped following a tech sell‑off driven by concerns over U.S. intervention in chipmakers, while traders await Fed Chair Powell’s policy cues. AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:TLT under pressure as rate‑cut expectations waver. Sony hikes PS5 prices amid tariffs. Effective August 21, PlayStation 5 models in the U.S. see a $50 price increase—tariff impact spilling into consumer electronics. Raises inflation whispers amid already elevated tech cost narrative. Healthcare activism heats up. Boards at firms like Medtronic, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk shift under investor pressure—governance shake‑ups adding a layer of corporate risk and potential M&A signals. ⏱ Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 10:00 AM — Advance Services Report (Q2) (Census bureau). Quarterly weight of service economy—strong print supports Pro side of markets; weak could dial back rate‑cut hopes. 10:00 AM — Summer Youth Labor Force Survey (Annual). Goes with job‑market narrative from July—may tweak Fed sentiment depending on labor softening/stability. Jackson Hole Symposium begins. Markets now fully focused on Powell; tone could make or break short‑term equity and bond positions. ⚠ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #Fed #JacksonHole #SPY #SPX #TLT #Sony #tech #tariffs #services #labor #activism #healthcare
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / CBOE:SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News Jackson Hole in focus; dollar firms. Traders lean ~84% odds of a 25bp cut in September; watch TVC:DXY vs. $SPY/ NASDAQ:TLT as Powell risk approaches. Retail baton passes from HD to LOW/TGT. After HD’s hold-guidance rally, attention shifts to Lowe’s/Target for read-throughs on DIY vs. pro spend and tariff pass-through. Risk tone jittery into minutes. Tech led a pullback Tuesday; positioning lightens ahead of Fed minutes and Jackson Hole. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). Prior: +10.9% w/w (8/13). Why it matters: housing demand pulse → rates/affordability → AMEX:XHB and growth tone. 10:30 AM — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status. Prior crude change: +3.036M bbl. Why it matters: oil balance → gasoline/diesel → inflation & AMEX:XLE path. 1:00 PM — U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction. Typical close: 1:00 ET; also 17-week bill today. Why it matters: term-premium & risk appetite; tails/stop-throughs can shake $TLT/$TNX. 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (July 29–30). Watch for: depth of cut debate, tariffs → inflation, labor cooling. Why it matters: reprices path-of-rates across curve and equities. Earnings (before open): LOW, TGT, TJX, ADI (+ others). Why it matters: U.S. consumer & capex reads; category mix shifts. Lowe’s call 9:00 AM. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #FOMCMinutes #JacksonHole #DXY #TLT #XLE #LOW #TGT #TJX #ADI
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
ETHUSD - Expect a bounce ... now? lets go above ATHLong time no see ! I was in vacations with the cult of the CME Gap that I joined Soooo, Eth took some logic profits, it was a quasi straight line from 2400 to 4800 (not mentionning that its coming before from under 1500), a 10% correction is totally ok we are actually in the middle of the last CME GAP, its filling daddy Dec 2024 high 100 MA 4H 0.5 fib resistance from last low 0.236 is 4K so we still have room to be in denial if it dips more as you can see thats a lot of convergences, not even talking about BTC, BTC.D, USDT.D, GOLD and all the other tickers aligning perfectly for the big ritual of the big last leg of the big bull run (B.R.B.L.L.B.B.R.) (I know how to make it since those vacations) Sooo SL is slightly under first bullish Order Block that u can see in this chart @ around 3440, yes sry I can't mess with the levs even with this perfect entry opportunity TP1 : 7000 TP2 : 9000 TP3 : 11000 (0.618 fib extension) Will update the TPs if momentum changes XX not advise
CME:ETH1!Long
by onemorewine
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 19, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Global markets tread water ahead of Jackson Hole. Asian equities slipped while European futures edged up on signs of diplomatic progress in the Russia–Ukraine crisis, as markets await Fed Chair Powell’s keynote. AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX still anchored to central-bank risk tone. Jackson Hole in focus. Investors are positioning for signals of a dovish tilt or rate cut cues in Powell’s speech later this week—data releases are in the shadow of event risk. Home Depot earnings loom. Retail heavyweight Home Depot reports today; strong results could buoy equities, while a miss would fan caution on consumer resilience. 💼 Key Market Developments Meta and Palo Alto highlight tech divergences. Meta shares slipped 2.3% on AI-leaning costs and metaverse skepticism, while Palo Alto surged 5% with robust Q4 and 2026 outlook—creating bifurcated leadership in tech. Stagflation & AI risk lurk. Analysts warn of stagflation threats and fading AI momentum as catalysts for a broader pullback—S&P 500 still up ~10% YTD, but vulnerable. ⏱ Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📅 Tuesday, August 19, 2025 Canada Inflation Rate (July): Expected 2.0% y/y — a minor but global inflation cue U.S. Building Permits (July): Forecast ~1.39M — housing sector signpost ahead of Powell’s speech Corporate Highlight: Home Depot (HD) earnings — earnings and commentary on inflation, tariffs, demand dynamics ⚠ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #JacksonHole #Fed #SPY #SPX #HD #HomeDepot #JacksonHole #inflation #earnings #tech #AI #SP500
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao