Mitigation: Where Smart Money Reloads“The first touch after a shift is often the cleanest. But only if you know where to wait.”
After a ChoCH or Break of Structure , price often returns to the origin of the move.
This return is called Mitigation — where big players close remaining positions and open new ones in the direction of the fresh trend.
Why Mitigation Matters
Most traders jump in immediately after a BoS, afraid of missing the move.
But professional traders understand something crucial:
The market almost always comes back.
Mitigation is where the market “refuels” before continuing.
It offers:
Smaller stop losses (tighter risk)
Clear invalidation points
Cleaner entries with better risk-reward
How to Spot Mitigation Zones
Find the last opposing candle before the strong move (bearish candle before a bullish rally, bullish candle before a sell-off).
Mark its open–close range as your mitigation block.
Wait for price to return to this area — patience is key.
Drop to a lower timeframe (M15 or M1) and wait for confirmation (ChoCH/BOS) before entry.
Practical Example (Gold)
Suppose Gold breaks structure upward (BoS).
Instead of buying the breakout, look left to locate the last bearish candle before that strong rally.
Price often revisits this candle’s range.
When it does, observe lower timeframe structure:
If it holds, that’s your entry — right where smart money is filling orders.
This is why the first pullback after a BoS is often the cleanest trade — it’s not random.
It’s the market completing unfinished business.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Have you seen this play out on your own charts?
Share your thoughts — where did price last revisit a zone before making a big move?
Marketstructure
USDJPY – Dual POI Short Setup🧠 Market Context
Previous Day High swept → liquidity grab complete.
CHoCH → Bearish Intent confirmed → directional bias is short.
Price is now retracing into supply zones for potential continuation lower.
🎯 Key Points of Interest (POIs)
Refined 1H POI
Aligned with highest previous day volume.
Strong institutional confluence.
Extreme 5M FVG (sweep origin)
Cleaner entry with tighter risk.
Aligns with the extreme point of interest logic from liquidity models.
⚖️ Execution Plan
Option A: Scale Entries
Partial entry at 1H POI.
Add position at 5M extreme FVG if price sweeps deeper.
Option B: Confirmation Entries
Wait for LTF BOS / rejection candle inside either POI before execution.
🔽 Bearish Targets
147.037 → Previous Daily Low (Liquidity Zone).
146.582 – 146.600 → Deeper liquidity + imbalance fill.
⚠️ Risk Management
Risk 0.5–1% per setup, split across zones.
Move SL to breakeven once 2R is achieved.
Trail stop following bearish structure.
📊 Summary
USDJPY has shifted to bearish intent after the PDH sweep. Two valid POIs are in play — a volume-backed 1H supply and an extreme 5M FVG.
Best approach: scale into both for higher probability while keeping risk controlled.
💬 What do you think? Would you take the refined 1H POI or wait for the extreme 5M FVG?
Trade Plan: XAUUSDTrade Plan: XAUUSD
Date: 9/5/2025
================
S: Neutral Bullish
M: Bullish
L: Bullish
================
Buy set up for both scenario
1. If price move up and try to break New ATH. Wait for fasle break and price should come back down to yesterday VPOC, where Buying set up should placed around that area.
2. If price move down and hold below yesterday VPOC. Wait for buying signal from the yesterday low and target should hit before New ATH level.
How To Capture Market Moves With SMC Suite Indicator?📊 SMC Suite Capturing Market Moves — Order Blocks • Breakers • Liquidity Sweeps • FVG
The chart above shows how the SMC Suite works in live market conditions on BankNifty. By combining Order Blocks, Breaker flips, Liquidity Sweeps, and Fair Value Gaps, the tool highlights where smart money is entering and where reversals are likely to occur.
🔹 Key Highlights from This Chart
1. Order Blocks — Bullish and bearish OBs correctly marked institutional footprints before price reversals.
2. Breaker Blocks — Invalidated OBs flipped into Breakers, giving continuation entries in trend direction.
3. Liquidity Sweeps — Several highs/lows were taken out, followed by reversals back into structure. These sweeps acted as confirmation for later setups.
4. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) — The script marked imbalances that later served as retracement zones. Price respected these gaps, providing clean reversal opportunities.
5. Retest Alerts — Each zone was validated only on retests with optional wick rejection, reducing noise and improving signal quality.
⸻
🔹 Why It Matters
This chart shows that SMC Suite is not just drawing zones randomly — it creates a workflow:
• Sweep liquidity ➝ impulsive displacement ➝ zone creation (OB/Breaker/FVG) ➝ retest confirmation.
This makes it easier to follow institutional logic and align entries with high-probability setups.
📌 Conclusion
From strong downside moves to clean bounces, the SMC Suite captured both continuation setups (Breakers) and reversal setups (OB/FVG retests). The integration of liquidity logic makes it a practical trading tool across indices, forex, and crypto.
Break of Structure (BoS): When the Trend Announces Itself“Structure is the language of the market. Learn it, and price speaks to you.”
Every trader looks at charts hoping for clues — and structure is the clearest one.
A Break of Structure (BoS) is a simple but powerful concept: it shows when the market confirms a continuation of the trend.
What is BoS?
When price breaks a previous high in an uptrend → confirms bullish continuation.
When price breaks a previous low in a downtrend → confirms bearish continuation.
BoS is different from ChoCH:
ChoCH signals potential reversal .
BoS signals trend continuation .
How to Spot BoS
Identify the key swing highs and lows.
Wait for price to decisively break them.
Confirm the break on the timeframe aligned with your bias (e.g., H4 for trend, M15 for setups).
Practical Tip
A BoS on M15 aligned with H4 bias is often where setups start forming.
Never assume a break is real without observing structure alignment and volume/confirmation.
Price doesn’t lie. Structure doesn’t cheat.
Once you see the break, the market has announced its intentions.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
If this resonated, comment below — which part of structure analysis should I break down next?
SXT / USDT : Breaking out from Trendline resistanceSXT/USDT is breaking out of its trendline resistance with strong potential. If this breakout sustains with clear confirmation, price could rally toward the $0.09 – $0.10 zone soon.
Best approach: Wait for clear bullish confirmation before entering. Manage risk wisely and trade according to market conditions.
Trade Plan: XAUUSD====Date: 8/29/2025S: Bullish
M: Neutral
L: Neutral Bullish
---------------------------
Bullish bias has set for today. Better to look for buy set up at the zone
1 : If the real time situation is very bullish, price may hold at the first zone which confluence to trend line and then it could reverse back up higher.
2: Price may back down to test Yesterday VPOC and then you should watch for buying price pattern or the ending of down move momentum.
3: If price has passed down through Yesterday VPOC it might has a shoppy move up and down around Larger time frame value area high zone.
BTC Rotations Aren’t What They Used to Be — Trojan Cycle This chart uses the Trojan Cycle: Dip & Profit Hunter tool to evaluate recent BTC price action in relation to structural flow dynamics — specifically price and volume behavior through a statistical lens.
The tool is part of a broader effort to monitor the evolving nature of capital rotation in crypto — one that considers how institutional infrastructure, regulatory filters, and synthetic signals may be altering traditional cycle behavior.
🧠 What This Tool Is Designed to Do
Rather than issuing classic buy/sell signals, the tool evaluates where we are in the broader capital flow rotation by analyzing:
Z-Scores of price and volume (how far each has deviated from their historical norm)
Percentile ranks (where current values fall relative to past distributions)
Price vs. Volume momentum divergence
A contextual output based on combinations of these metrics
The aim is to offer a clearer view into whether a move is structurally supported or potentially hollow .
🔍 Live Signal Example (as shown on chart)
Metric Value
Z-Score (Price) +0.65 (mild extension)
Z-Score (Volume) -1.27 (subdued flow)
Percentile (Price) 64%
Percentile (Volume) 2% (extremely low)
Combined Context 📉 Price leading — flow lagging, be cautious
Structural Signal 🟣 No high-probability setup
🗣 Interpretation (not prediction):
While BTC has advanced in price, this configuration suggests a lack of supporting volume — at least from the perspective of the current model. In the context of a maturing, compliance-filtered market structure, these kinds of setups may align with the idea of synthetic rotations: price expansion without true structural inflow.
📘 Why This Matters
The goal isn’t to call tops or bottoms — it’s to better understand the character of a move .
This tool helps frame whether a move may represent:
📥 Accumulation
🔴 Distribution
🚨 Euphoric extension
🧨 Synthetic narrative trap
…or simply neutral structure , as in the current case.
🔎 Interested in the Thesis Behind This?
This tool is part of a broader analytical framework outlined in the Trojan Cycle and Synthetic Rotation theses.
To explore those ideas further, including full macro breakdowns and structural flow models, please visit the published charts for RWCS_LTD on TradingView.
📊 How I Use This Personally
I avoid adding risk when signals show price is leading while volume lags.
I scale in during “confluent buy” or “value + flow” setups.
I pair this with BTC.D, ETH/BTC, and TOTALES3/ETH to track relative strength and phase rotation.
💭 Final Thought
Whether this tool confirms your existing thesis — or challenges it — the intent is to help develop structure-informed judgment in a rapidly evolving market.
EURUSD - LongEURUSD – BUY Setup
📊 H4 Timeframe Analysis by Nii_Billions
🔹 Outlook: BULLISH
Using multiple timeframe confirmation for direction.
Strategy blends technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment.
Entry, SL, and TP structured with risk management in mind.
🟢 Educational purposes only 🟢
❤️ Like & comment if this helps your trading journey.
👉 Follow for more swing trade ideas.
EURGBP - LongEURGBP Analysis - LONG 👆
In this Chart EURGBP H4 Timeframe: By Nii_Billions.
❤️This Chart is for EURGBP market analysis.
❤️Entry, SL, and Target is based off our Strategy.
This chart analysis uses multiple timeframes to analyze the market and to help see the bigger picture on the charts.
The strategy uses technical and fundamental factors, and market sentiment to predict a BULLISH trend in EURGBP, with well-defined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels for risk management.
🟢This idea is purely for educational purposes.🟢
❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️
XAGUSD - ShortXAGUSD – SELL Setup
📊 H1 Timeframe Analysis by Nii_Billions
🔹 Outlook: BEARISH
Using multiple timeframe confirmation for direction.
Strategy blends technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment.
Entry, SL, and TP structured with risk management in mind.
🟢 Educational purposes only 🟢
❤️ Like & comment if this helps your trading journey.
👉 Follow for more swing trade ideas.
How to Identify Market Structure: From Uptrend to DowntrendUnderstanding market structure is key to trading well.
📈 In an uptrend, price forms a sequence of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). As long as the most recent HL is respected, buyers remain in control. Pullbacks into demand often provide continuation opportunities.
📉 Once the most recent HL is broken, structure shifts — buyers lose control, and the market can flip into a downtrend with Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). Pullbacks into supply confirm bearish momentum.
🔑 Remember:
Market structure is fractal — always check higher timeframes for better understanding of price action.
A break of any important structure ( lows, highs ) tells us that either price is continuing or reversing.
Supply and demand zones are where reversals usually begin. And that is due to volatility and orders, volume coming into the market.
Don’t fight momentum — align with structure, and let the market confirm direction before you do anything.
Keep this framework in mind, and reading trends will become much clearer.
Blessings, T
$EURUSD 15m Mark-UpEURUSD LTF Analysis - Aug 19
Analysis Notes:
The 15 minute timeframe is completely ranging, with a weak upper high, and the previous low had also caused a weak high to form.
Basically, as long as there’s no clear direction, trading on this timeframe in lower timeframes (1 minute) is not suitable.
If there’s any update regarding EUR, I’ll post it.
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Gold 15M OB Reaction – Targeting 3355Price is currently trading around the $3,333 level after reacting to the M15 and M5 Order Blocks (OB). The market is showing signs of a potential reversal from this demand zone, supported by the break of the descending trendline.
Entry Zone: Price is mitigating the M5 OB within the larger M15 OB.
Targets:
TP1: $3,339 – aligned with local liquidity ($$$) and previous highs.
Final TP: $3,357 – a major liquidity zone and supply area.
If price holds above the OB, we can expect bullish continuation towards TP levels. However, a break below $3,323 would invalidate this setup and signal deeper downside.
📊 Bias: Bullish (as long as OB holds).
$EURUSD 15m Mark-UpAug 18 - Mark-Up Update
Analysis Note:
The demand zone failed, and price did not move toward the Asian high.
Currently, if price manages to maintain its bullish structure and shift character from this area on the lower timeframe, it may push upward. If not, it will likely head toward the weak low I marked, and we may see a 15-minute swing character shift.
By analyzing price action on the 5-minute timeframe, you can make a more precise decision for either scenario!
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$EURUSD 15m MarkUpAug 18
Analysis Notes:
We’ve tapped into a demand zone and also swept the Asian low on the 15-minute timeframe.
At the moment, I expect a move toward the Asian high, where you can look for entry confirmation on the 1-minute timeframe.
The 15-minute swing high is our final target.
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Gold 1H | ICT SMC Analysis (OB + FVG Roadmap)This analysis is based on ICT / Smart Money Concepts.
•Key Order Blocks ( OB ) and Fair Value Gaps ( FVG ) highlighted.
•Current price is testing a bullish OB on the 1H timeframe after a CHoCH .
• Possible scenarios:
1. Bullish case → if demand (green OB) holds, price may target 3,390 – 3,410 (upper OB).
2. Bearish case → failure to hold may drive price towards 3,280 – 3,300 demand zone.
Methodology : ICT / SMC
⚠️ This is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
Recent Dip & What It Means for the Trojan Cycle: Fact Check1. Stablecoin Capital Flow — Not a Typical Sell-Off
On August 14–15 , Binance saw $1.82 billion in net stablecoin inflows, one of the highest recent figures.
Simultaneously, Tether and Circle minted a combined $9.5 billion in stablecoins over the past 30 days , signaling significant on-ramp activity.
These patterns contradict what we'd expect in a pure capitulation. Instead, they suggest capital is being positioned to buy into dips , not exit markets—hallmarks of the positioning-reset phase in the Trojan Cycle.
2. Institutional Accumulation Aligns with Thesis
Spot Ether ETFs just recorded over $1 billion in net inflows in one day (led by BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH), bringing total ETF inflows to $10.8 billion.
Two whales accumulated $150 million in ETH , reinforcing institutional interest at these levels.
This indicates institutional players are using the dip as an opportunity to accumulate—consistent with the Trojan framework's “Trojan vehicles” mechanics.
3. Market Structural Trends Support Rotation Setup
Ethereum price dipped ~3% , suggesting short-term weakness but providing a potential entry zone.
Network activity remains robust: ETH daily on-chain transactions recently neared all-time highs at ~1.87 million , driven primarily by stablecoin transfers .
Strong on-chain activity alongside stablecoin flow indicates capital preparation for a rotation phase, rather than a breakdown.
Trojan Cycle Thesis — Data Review
Aspect --> What Trojan Cycle Predicts --> What Data Shows
Stablecoin Inflows --> Increases ahead of rotation --> Binance saw $1.82B in inflows; $9.5B minted overall
Institutional Buying --> Accumulation during dips --> $1B+ ETF inflows; $150M ETH whales buying
Network Activity --> Pre-rotation buildup --> High ETH txn volume, stablecoin activity peaking
Conclusion: All three key indicators align with the Trojan Cycle model. This dip appears to be a positioning flush, not the start of a structural downturn.
$EURUSD 15m Mark-UpOANDA:EURUSD
August 15
Analysis Notes:
After the nearly 100 Pip drop we captured on EURUSD, price has reacted to the 4H zone, bounced from the decision demand, and is now heading towards the 15-minute swing. It will likely move up to 50% of the 4H supply zone.
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The Trojan Cycle: A New Framework for Altseasons & Liquidity🧭 A Thesis for a New Crypto Cycle
This post proposes a new lens for understanding crypto’s macro structure in the institutional era—rooted in two frameworks: The Trojan Cycle and Synthetic Rotation .
It challenges the legacy “ M2 = liquidity, BTC = lead, alts = profit ” model, proposing a more engineered and asymmetric structure shaped by capital rails, narrative timing, and retail dynamics.
📖 Key Concepts
🔹 Trojan Cycle
A macro capital flow model where:
• BTC still triggers narrative momentum—but no longer drives liquidity alone
• Institutional capital enters via regulated wrappers like ETFs and through equities with crypto treasuries (e.g., MSTR, miners, COIN)
• Stablecoins replace M2 as real-time liquidity proxies
• Retail unknowingly front-runs these flows
🛠 Trojan access isn’t just through ETFs—it includes public stocks holding crypto on balance sheets. These Trojan equities serve as indirect exposure rails that institutions use stealthily.
🔹 Synthetic Rotation
Altseasons today are not spontaneous BTC profit spillovers. They are:
• Platform-driven
• Narrative-coordinated
• Liquidity-engineered
• Retail-targeted—by design, not coincidence
🛠 Media, influencers, and platform incentives synchronize narrative deployment to align with capital rotation windows, driving retail engagement at peak distribution phases.
🔹 ETH as a Structural Fulcrum
Ethereum isn’t just a top asset—it’s the bridge:
• Serves as a midpoint for capital between BTC and high-beta alts
• TOTAL3ES/ETH ratio reveals directional bias in rotation structure
🛠 ETH is a liquidity buffer and rotational fulcrum—not just a layer-1 narrative asset.
🔹 Structural Liquidity Fragmentation
Institutional and retail flows now move on different rails, timelines, and tools:
• Retail is incentivized through volatility and engagement
• Institutions scale in/out passively, through wrappers and proxies
🛠 These cycles don’t just desync by chance—they’re structurally misaligned. This is why retail often exits late and enters at narrative highs.
📊 Visual Framework
Using the Crypto Macro Cockpit script:
• Spread and slope = flow direction and acceleration
• Stablecoin cap = capital injection
• Stablecoin dominance = risk appetite
• TOTAL3ES/ETH = alt rotation pressure
• Composite regime classification = macro posture (Risk-ON/OFF, Caution, Waiting)
📎 Why It Matters
Understanding engineered cycles vs organic flows is key to staying ahead.
Legacy cycle models no longer apply.
New frameworks are needed to decode capital movement, timing asymmetries, and narrative deployment.
💬 This isn’t a prediction—it’s a proposed mental model for discussion.
Would love to hear your thoughts—how are you navigating the new cycle?
XAUUSD – Channel Breakdown & Order Block ReactionPrice has broken below the ascending channel 📈 after failing to hold higher highs. A strong bearish drop has pushed price toward the 15M Order Block (OB) 📦 around 3,335–3,345, which may act as a demand zone.
🔍 Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish Reversal 🐂 – Buyers defend the OB, pushing price back above 3,360 and possibly toward 3,380+.
2️⃣ Further Drop 🐻 – If the OB fails, sellers could target lower liquidity zones.
⚡ Volume spikes during the breakdown show strong selling pressure, but the OB zone remains the key battleground for the next move.