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MES

Sep 10 MES Recap: Watching MAG7, Session Highs/Lows, and Higher MES Journal – September 10, 2025 Today I traded MES using supply and demand levels, while also tracking leadership from the MAG7 (with QQQ as my main proxy). Track the MAG7 with me on TradingView using the MAG7 List . I didn’t trade with this strategy until a few guys in my Discord recommended it. I had a bit of a learning curve, but I finished green on most accounts for the first time in a while. Context I Tracked Asian session high/low: 6,514 / 6,492 London session high/low: 6,528 / 6,506 Previous day high/low: 6,536.25 / 6,489.25 PPI report (Aug 2025): -0.1% vs forecast, shifted bias from bullish to bearish intraday VWAP levels on both ES and QQQ Wins Stayed green overall on funded accounts with payout potential. Saw the end-of-day pump confirmed by MAG7, even after an initial retrace. Reinforced my supply/demand and VWAP process. Losses and Lessons Learned Entered one trade without higher timeframe confirmation, which cost me a FundingTicks eval account (treating this loss as tuition). Learned that higher timeframes (1H/4H/Daily) must confirm intraday levels before entering. Looking Forward I’ll combine: Supply/Demand + Session Highs/Lows Leader ETF (QQQ/MGK/MAG7) Higher Timeframes (1H/4H/Daily) This approach gives me more conviction and fewer blind trades. Indicators Since I’m still learning how to mark levels properly, I’m starting out with indicators to help reinforce that I’m using potentially correct levels. I primarily used: Asian & London Sessions High/Lows Previous Highs & Lows Supply and Demand Visible Range TradingView default VWAP indicator
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EliasVictor
1
CME Gap Aligns with 4h 200 EMAThe CME Gap around 5710-5730 is beginning to align with the 4h 200 EMA. 4h RSI has been diverging bearish 3 times with each leg up within the channel above. Also, a breakdown of that channel has measured moves down that align with both the 4h 50 and 200 EMA: - 50 EMA an 0.5x measured move down - 200 EMA a 2.5x measured move down Pre-req on targeting the gap is a breakdown of the parallel channel shown above, and then loss of the 4h 50 EMA. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by dudebruhwhoa
A look at the ES1!What's up traders, Havent posted in a while. Heres my take and outlook for next week, using the MES1! (SP500) Current Outlook Technical Look: Momentum Bearish -323.25 (looks weak) MACD Bearish, possibly inflecting RSI 36.72, off lows and crossing MA (oversold) 200D SMA at 5775.75 (Below the 50 Day) 50D SMA at 5967.43 (Above the 200 Day) Trending towards a Death Cross Price Action Bullish Engulfing Candle on the March 14 bounce. Price successfully crossed the 5600 Psychological Level We bounced at ~5500 Experiencing resistance in the 5640-5620 Range (expected) Sentiment Canada showed promise as heading towards a (take your best guess at the details) resolution to the tariff fight with the united states. Tariffs remain a major drag on the stock market pricing. Government shut down at time of this post, is apparently narrowly avoided. Gold Set a new high. Outlook for Next Week Economic Reports Monday - Retail Sales 830AM Tuesday - Building Permits, Housing Starts 830AM Wednesday - Fed Int Rate Decision 2PM, JPOW Speech 230PM Thursday - Existing home sales 10AM Notable Earnings Reports Micron Nike Fed Ex General Mills Carinval Cruise NIO Tencent I viewed the Firday bounce as a sort of 'relief rally'. My belief is that we could go higher on the back of it. The market has majorly 'oversold' by the numbers - and the probability of a bounce became increasingly likely. Upside resistance to remain mercurial on the rapidly changing sentiment narrative. A possible outcome: retest the underside of the 200DMA. I do not expect a notable price recovery towards ATH's until the tariff effects are known, which means: I expect higher than normal volatility for several months Earnings projections (in the coming earnings season) will shed the required light on reality. I have been adding long term holds - such as: GDX DAX META GOOG AMZN BABA UNH C CRWD IBIT NVO CMG INDA AVGO I remain ~90% cash at ~3.7% yield. Resistance possibly at: 5672 August 2024 Resistance, September 2024 Support 5724 July 2024 Resistance and later Support 5775 (200 Day SMA)
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by WillNixTrading
Inflation Fears Weigh More than China Tech GainsDeepSeek Is Not the Market’s Biggest Concern Over the past few days following the emergence of DeepSeek, Nasdaq or technology stocks have experienced a notable 6% decline across all major U.S. indices. However, this recent pullback pales in comparison to the more substantial drop seen in December. Small-Cap Stocks Take a Bigger Hit The Russell 2000, which tracks small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., suffered an even sharper decline, falling by 12%. This suggests that broader economic concerns, beyond just the tech sector, are weighing on investor sentiment. Then, What Is It? On December 18, during the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a widely expected 0.25% rate cut, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.5%. However, it wasn’t the rate cut that rattled the market—it was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that followed. “… the median participant projected that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be 3.9% at the end of 2025, indicating expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2025, down from the four projected in the previous summary.” This statement signaled that the Fed remains hawkish on inflation, with expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025 instead of the previously projected four. As a result, borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated at around 3.9%, a scenario that investors had not fully priced in. The market reacted negatively, with indices falling sharply over the subsequent weeks. Market Stabilization Amid China Tech Competition Despite the recent downturn, there are signs of stabilization, with major indices still maintaining their position along an established uptrend line. As long as inflation continues to ease—hovering around 3% or, ideally, heading toward the Fed’s 2% target—the broader market outlook remains positive. From a strategic standpoint, I will continue to focus on buying dips if the market respects the uptrend line. However, if hopes for rate cuts in 2025 fade and the trend begins to break below key support levels, my strategy will shift toward selling into strength when opportunities arise. Short-Term Trading Outlook To refine my trading decisions, I have also drawn trendlines on an hourly chart. Applying the same uptrend principles, these lines serve as a guideline for short-term trading in the Micro S&P 500 futures. With the latest January Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading at 3%—higher than expected—I will be closely monitoring my daily chart's uptrend line. While external economic conditions remain unpredictable, adapting trading strategies in response to market trends is key to staying ahead. Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful: E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: ES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $12.50 Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: MES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by konhow
DeepSeek Is Not What the Market FearsWith the emergence of DeepSeek, tech stocks have generally dropped by 6% over these few short days across all US indices, but from the peak in late November to December, we saw a much more massive drop among all of them. The Russell 2000, representing small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., declined by 12%, What triggered this sell-off in the tech giants (Nasdaq), the old guards (Dow Jones), the suite of blue-chip stocks (S&P 500), and the medium-sized firms (Russell 2000)? Markets are inter-connected. What should we be looking out for, and how should we navigate if the market break below this recent all-time low? E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: ES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $12.50 Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: MES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by konhow
Trading Plan ES TODAYCurrent Position: Average entry price stands at 5741, ATM. Trading Plan: Targeting a push toward 5800, with plans to exit prior to the U.S. market open. Although seller momentum appears depleted, I remain cautious about the likelihood of a sustained rally. Intraday Strategy: Hold a bullish outlook until the market open. Anticipate a retracement toward yesterday’s close, at which point I intend to re-enter long positions. Monitoring Approach: I will closely supervise the U.S. market open trades with heightened scrutiny compared to pre-market positioning.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by OssianH
Why Large Firms with Huge Cash? Small Firm Are Leading...Berkshire Hathaway, an investment company is not investing. What is the signal? Why are they hoarding cash? • Not much good investment opportunity ahead • Preparing for tougher time E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: ES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $12.50 Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: MES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:M2K1!
by konhow
3
Bear Market or Short-term Sell-Off?The March CPI was reported at 3.5%, higher than expected on April 10. This development triggered a sharp decline in the stock market, with a total drop of 8.5% from the recent high. Could this downward movement signal the onset of a major bear market, or is this sell-off simply a retracement, setting the stage for the bull market to resume? We will explore this question by studying the following hypothesis: • A rising CPI is a leading indicator of a bear market. • A declining CPI is a leading indicator of a bull market. Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
12
S&P500 Futures Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZOne Pro & UMVD Indicators. * Trend is Based on TrapZone Color * Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves. * Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand -------------------- 1-15-2024 Downtrend with UMVD showing Divergence. Price sliding as US MSI also points to weakening in the market. Hold On to You Hats I Say :)
CME_MINI:MES1!
by SnowflakeTrader
SPY- Open Put Options to Hedge Long Stocks SHORTSPY on the 15-minute chart seems to have hit a pivot high. With a variety of long positions, I need some insurance against a bull trap or even a black swan event in geopolitics. It seems SPY puts would fulfill the purpose. Out of the money below the current price seems opportunistic. Accordingly, I will take a handful of put options that expire at the mid- March monthly 1% below current price. If the market is healthy these will drop in value especially with time decay. They will serve as insurance. On the other hand if the market gets a cold or worse a bad case of COVID, these will partially offset any losses while managing positions.
AMEX:SPYShort
by AwesomeAvani