MSTR WEEKLY OPTIONS SETUP (2025-07-28)
### 🔻 MSTR WEEKLY OPTIONS SETUP (2025-07-28)
**Bearish Divergence with High Confidence — Time to Strike with a PUT?**
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📊 **Momentum Recap:**
* **RSI:** Bearish 📉
* **Volume:** Weak (institutional exit risk)
* **Options Flow:** Mixed (calls > puts, but no alignment with price)
* **Sentiment Models:** Split 4:1 → **Only Claude/Anthropic** goes bearish with conviction
🧠 **Model Consensus:**
> “Momentum is weak, volume fading, and no upside confirmation = bearish edge.”
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### ✅ SETUP OVERVIEW
* 🔍 **Trend:** Bearish (declining RSI)
* 📉 **Volume:** Weak = reduced institutional conviction
* 💬 **Options Flow:** Bullish bias, but **contradicts price trend**
* ⚙️ **Volatility:** Elevated, potential reward for directional plays
**Overall Bias:** 🔴 *Moderately Bearish*
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### 💥 TRADE IDEA: MSTR \$400P
* 🎯 **Strategy:** Long Weekly Put
* 🔻 **Strike:** 400.00
* 📆 **Expiry:** Aug 1, 2025
* 💸 **Entry Price:** \$8.65
* ✅ **Profit Target:** \$12.50
* 🛑 **Stop Loss:** \$4.00
* 📈 **Confidence Level:** 72% (backed by Claude model)
* 📉 **Breakdown Trigger:** Below \$405 confirms bearish flow
* ⚠️ **Invalidation:** Break above \$415 → exit early
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### 📦 TRADE\_DETAILS (Backtest/Algo Ready JSON)
```json
{
"instrument": "MSTR",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 400.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-01",
"confidence": 0.72,
"profit_target": 12.50,
"stop_loss": 4.00,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 8.65,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-07-31 09:30:00 UTC-04:00"
}
```
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### 🧠 TRADE INSIGHTS
* 🟥 4/5 models say **no trade** due to signal divergence
* 🧠 **Claude’s bearish thesis = cleanest directional setup**
* 🚨 Volume + RSI combo = downside confirmation
* 🧭 Watch key price reaction zones: **\$400–\$405 (support)** / **\$415 (resistance cap)**
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**#MSTR #PutOptions #WeeklyTrade #BearishSetup #OptionsFlow #QuantTrading #ClaudeModel #MarketMomentum**
