XAUUSD: Pre-NY Resistance Plan → Rejection & PullbackThe following analysis was shared Friday January 2nd before the New York session (11:46am) while price was approaching resistance:
XAUUSD – Intraday Update (Pre-NY)
We established a clear support base in the 4305–4320 area, which held well.
During the Asian session, price pushed higher and took out Wednesday’s highs, confirming short-term strength.
Price was trading around 4395, approaching a key resistance zone near 4404, aligned with Tuesday’s highs.
What I was watching:
Reaction as price approached 4400–4404
Acceptance above 4401 with a body close → continuation toward 4420+
Wick above 4401 with a close back below → rejection and pullback toward 4353 or lower
At resistance, the focus was on confirmation — not prediction.
Outcome
Price wicked above 4401 without a candle body close, showing clear rejection at resistance, and traded lower, reaching the 4353 support zone.
This is a clean example of how waiting for reaction and confirmation at key levels removes the need to chase or guess direction.
Structure first.
Patience always.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
COAIUSDT Post Crash Base Forming for Next MoveCOAIUSDT previously delivered an exceptional parabolic expansion of approximately 162x, followed by a sharp mean-reversion that erased nearly 98% of the advance. After this aggressive drawdown, price action has stabilized and transitioned into a potential consolidation phase, suggesting that the market is attempting to rebuild structure.
The ongoing pullback appears corrective in nature rather than impulsive, indicating early signs of a continuation setup. As long as the key structural support highlighted on the chart remains intact, the bullish bias is preserved, and the next expansion leg is expected to drive price toward the projected target zone.
A clear invalidation level is defined to control risk should the structure fail.
Bitcoin: a view through the yearly and monthly timeframesHappy New Year, traders and investors!
I wish you profitable trades, confidence in your abilities, calmness, clarity, and steady progress throughout the year — and, of course, good luck.
The new year has begun, and it’s a good moment to look at the yearly and monthly charts to understand where it makes sense to consider assets from an investment perspective.
On both the yearly and monthly timeframes, the buyer initiative remains intact. The yearly initiative is wide, spanning 15,476–126,199. Key yearly levels are 70,837 (50% of the initiative) and 69,000 (the upper boundary of the previous initiative). Below, a buyer zone is formed with its upper boundary at 48,189.
The year 2025 closed on declining volume, indicating a lack of active selling pressure and preserving conditions for a potential renewal of buyer initiative.
On the monthly timeframe, the buyer initiative also remains valid (74,508–126,199). The current price is around 89,256, where a buyer reaction is possible. The next important level below is 74,508.
For long-term positions, it would be reasonable to wait for a price decline and interaction with the yearly levels 70,837–69,000, or even the buyer zone near 48,189. In these areas, it makes sense to look for buy patterns, with targets at 109,608 and a retest of 126,199.
Profitable trades!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
LOW might go low before it goes highNever financial advice. Just offering perspective.
Would like to see a move into 220.89 area before pushing and holding above 229.98, using that as a support level. The other possibilities are to revisit 215.62 and get as low as 213.89. Losing 213.89 would signal bears regaining full control and a likely retest of 205.64(from a weekly perspective). These levels under 220.89 seem less probable, but not out of the question. I like 220.89, cutting at 220.60 and reassessing is tight protection from more downside and opportunity for discounted entry for bull case. Though I prefer to see a pullback to then get going, LOW is showing signs of urgency to move higher continuing the current Daily uptrend. However, there is an area of 230.21-231.11 on a weekly view, that bulls have to step in or we may see a touch and go heavy rejection there. Prefer to see a pullback to retest 220.89 to then look for a target at 229.98, IF bulls claim 231.11... 238.19, 248.16, 257.25. Be aware that this analysis is on a higher timeframe of a daily and weekly perspective and may take time to develop.
DAL looking bearish before earnings ...lets take a lookNever financial advice. Just offering perspective.
On the weekly timeframe currently looking for some bearish confirmation going into this week. The previous all time highs were swept and DAL may be looking to offer a discount for investors. Currently price is resting on a bearish imbalance that looks encouraging for bears. Would like to see the bullish imbalance below current price get mitigated to further this thesis.
The monthly outlook also has a bearish imbalance that it has reached but also is in the process of forming a bullish imbalance which would be lost if we close October below 43.26.
Overall the structure is bullish but could see a swift or very slow move back in to bullish discount for a continuation up.
Earnings are in 4 days.
I'm more interested in a bearish short term move. The model would complete at 17.51.
Key spot on the board for SOFI On the MonthlyNever financial advice. Just offering perspective.
At a key spot for Sofi. In the midst of a monthly bearish imbalance, specifically a bearish fair value gap which holds more weight than a volume imbalance. We pushed off a bullish breaker which can be a solid indicator as a push up, with the the high of that green box acting as a support, followed by a strong bullish move.
16.47-17.13 is where the monthly bearish fvg begins and ends.
A monthly close(13days) above 17.13 would be encouraging for bulls, with no bearish imbalances on this higher timeframe.
If we cannot get a monthly candle close above 17.13 we can see a strong rejection, setting a new bullish range from most recent low to high, which we can then see a move back into discount.
My ideal bearish outlook: Monthly bearish imbalance reject, which is currently at 50% bearish discount, to retest bullish breaker + bullish fvg + monthly liquidity sitting at the low of previous month10.63. Targeting ----> 8.53- 10.63.
Ideal bullish outlook(continuation):
Monthly bearish imbalance mitigated here with a monthly candle close above here. Next points of liquidity ---24.65---24.95 as targets.
Ideal bullish outlook(entry or reentry):
Entering ----> 8.53- 10.63.
Be aware that this analysis is on a higher timeframe of a Monthly perspective and may take time to develop.
$MDB on Long Longer Timeframe looks pretty deliciousNever financial advice. Just offering perspective.
Its overall a clean setup for higher timeframes, a run back to all time highs. Lower timeframes point to a similar picture. On the Monthly, there is no bearish imbalances above until 385.86-399.88 . On the Weekly we clear 246.51-319.48 , bearish imbalance hanging above. Its possible to see a revisit to 162.53-189.88, I would say this is about 35% probable. This is more likely, if we lose 234.09.
Lastly, on the Daily. 221.50-223.22 is a bullish imbalance, that we could revisit. I personally see the lower moves as low probability but not off the table. It would be encouraging for bulls to get a close above 242.67, today.
Be aware that this analysis is on a higher timeframe of a Yearly perspective and may take time to develop.
I'll keep this post updated. :)
Crude oil to revisit 2020 lows with drop to <$20 -80% - Dec 2025Now that we’re all driving Teslas and cyber trucks, oil can stay where it belongs, in the ground. Or something like that. Greenpeace finally makes progress.. as long as we forget about China burning colossal amounts of coal the size of mount Everest to power the machinery needed to recover minerals for EV battery manufacturer. And lets not forget about the poor suckers sat in $70k of negative equity after dropping $100k on the latest shiny EV with a $30k re-sale value.
At the same time unemployment rates surge as freshly minted graduates find themselves unable to get a job with that new degree in comparative Victorian teapot handle criticism. I'm shocked. As was the AI that got past the interview for operating the office coffee pot.
Anyway, never mind that nonsense, we’re here to understand if demand for crude is on the up or not. The chart says, no. Not at all.
Why?
Very simple. Recession. One of the strongest leading indicators for recession after the yield curve inversion is a collapse in price of crude oil. The collapse in price are shown with the past two recessions marked out in the overlay in grey columns.
The Technical
On the above 3 week chart:
1. Price action confirms broken market structure
2. Price action breaks through a 26 year line of support for the 3rd time.
3. A head and shoulder print confirms.
Conclusions
Right, so let’s wrap this up. The chart isn’t just whispering “recession,” it’s shouting it through a megaphone while setting fire to a stack of old oil barrels. We’ve got the classic playbook: a yield curve inversion for the intellectuals, followed by oil prices doing a swan dive off a cliff for the rest of us. It’s happened twice before with perfect timing, and now we’re lining up for the hat-trick.
The technicals aren't being subtle either. The market structure isn't just broken; it's been dismantled and sold for scrap. Price has punched through a 26 year support line not once, not twice, but for the third time. That’s not a test; that’s a verdict. And to add a cherry on top of this miserable cake, we’ve got a head and shoulders pattern. It’s the market’s way of shrugging and saying, “Yeah, it’s over.”
Is it possible price action does a u-turn like most of tradingview publishers are forecasting? For sure (and seriously they are, go-an, have a lookie.. ).
Is it probable? No
Ww
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Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. This is one person looking at squiggly lines on a screen and making a guess, while making sarcastic remarks about global energy hypocrisy. I’m not your broker, your advisor, or your therapist.
Past performance is about as reliable a guide to the future as a politician’s promise. Just because oil tanked before a recession before, doesn’t guarantee it will do it again. Maybe this time is different. Who knows?
Do your own research. Make your own decisions. Don’t bet the house on the cynical musings of some bloke on the internet, no matter how compelling the head and shoulders pattern looks.
bearish short term exhaustion, looking for a long entry.bearish trend exhaustion, not enough strength t keep pushing price downwards. even though we can be seeing a long term bearish, I'm looking for a long entry here for a short term bullish trend. to be confirmed if it is just a correction for keep moving downwards or a new long term bullish trend. It doesn't matter for this idea as i consider even if we are starting a long term bearish trend, the major chances here are for at least one bullish swing.
AVAXUSDT Recovery Phase Challenging Bearish TrendlineAVAXUSDT has established a clear bottom, signaling exhaustion of the prior bearish phase. Price is expected to make an upside more towards the descending dynamic trendline that has consistently capped upside moves. This level represents a key structural test, as a successful challenge of the trendline would confirm a shift in market control.
The current price region presents a favorable accumulation zone, supported by improving structure and momentum. Risk is clearly defined with invalidation placed below the primary support area.
A continuation move toward the $33 resistance zone remains the primary upside objective, with price reaction at the trendline serving as the key confirmation trigger.
Long trade
Trade Details
Pair: ZORAUSDT
Bias: Buy-side
Date: Fri 2nd Jan 2026
Session: Tokyo Session PM
Entry: 0.03916
TP: 0.04421 (~19.94%)
SL: 0.03868 (~1.49%)
RR: 13.36
Trade Journal — Context & Thesis
🧭 Market Context
ZORAUSDT was transitioning out of a prolonged rotational and sell-side dominant phase into a potential bullish re-pricing environment. Higher-timeframe price action showed repeated failures to sustain downside continuation, with sell-side liquidity progressively absorbed below prior range lows.
The broader structure suggested a late-stage bearish auction, where further downside attempts were increasingly inefficient and met with responsive demand.
📦Value, VWAP & Fair Price Assessment
Anchored VWAP and deviation bands provided a clear fair value reference. Price acceptance back above:
VWAP
Lower deviation bands
Prior internal range support
confirmed a failed bearish auction and marked the shift toward bullish value acceptance.
This acceptance above value was the primary institutional signal supporting the buy-side thesis.
📐 Structure & PD Array Confluence
The trade aligned with multiple bullish PD arrays:
Reclaimed VWAP value
Mitigated downside FVGs
Internal range low support
Discounted price relative to prior distribution leg
Structure shifted intraday with higher lows forming post-reclaim, validating early bullish structure development.
LINKUSDT Bullish Pennant Signals Major ContinuationLINKUSDT previously printed a major all-time high around the $53 level before entering an extended corrective phase that retraced approximately 90% of the entire bullish expansion. This correction ultimately culminated in a strong structural bottom near $4.70, where demand decisively absorbed selling pressure. Since establishing this low, price has transitioned into a recovery phase, gradually rebuilding bullish structure.
Currently, LINKUSDT is consolidating within a bullish pennant formation, reflecting healthy compression following the impulsive recovery leg. The pennant breakout is expected to dictate the next major trend impulse.
The highlighted zone of interest represents a technically favorable accumulation region, where risk can be clearly defined against invalidation levels. A confirmed breakout above the pennant resistance would validate bullish continuation, with projected upside targets already outlined on the chart. Price behavior around the structure boundary remains critical for confirmation.
IDBI Bank Limited Resistance breakoutIDBI Bank Limited
The stock has witnessed a breakout above a flat resistance that held for the last 19 months, indicating strong bullish intent. Sustained price action above the breakout zone could lead to a potential upside of around 10% in the near term. Traders may look for confirmation through volume expansion and maintain disciplined risk management below the breakout level.
July 2025 - Internet computer ICP ;-(Every other week Without Worries is asked for his thoughts on Internet Computer project. It is very clear a number of folks are invested and for a few it is the only crypto token they hold.
Disclaimer . Without Worries does not hold or trade this crypto token. My opinion is impartial.
Two questions every trader or investor must ask themselves before exposure to any asset:
What is the trend?
Support or resistance, which is it?
To not answer either or even ignore the answers; that is to ignore the facts of the chart. You’re here to make money, nothing else.
The questions are best answered on a higher time frame where possible, especially a time frame where market pivots align with the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Question 1, what is the trend?
Start by looking left, on both Price action and RSI. The first lower high is observed in tandem with a lower high in RSI. This trend is matched in RSI as lower lows in price action and RSI break legacy support. This is clearly a downtrend.
Question 2, Support or resistance, which is it?
As before, look left. Typically best to start with higher timeframes. Support levels are identified by observing historical price charts where the asset has repeatedly stopped falling and reversed upwards. Similarly, resistance levels are identified by observing historical price action where the asset has repeatedly stopped rising and reversed downwards. These levels are often marked by previous swing highs, areas where the price has consolidated, or psychological round numbers (blue and red arrows).
It is fairly clear price action on the above chart now finds resistance on past support.
Bonus observation
With questions 1 and 2 both answered, it is clear future price action favours a bearish outlook on the macro outlook. A long term bear flag has established, now awaiting confirmation. That confirmation shall be a print of rejection from the underside of the flag, which will also be an additional lower high around $10. It is entirely possible (and is often the situation for flags to print their forecasts without confirmation!). After the confirmation price action will begin its decent towards 60 cents.
ww
Bearish to kick off 2026On the Daily chart we are rather choppy, multiple breaks to the upside and downside, indicative of distribution once multiple breaks to the downside are confirmed on Medium TFs
On the 3D we have had 6 consecutives breaks to the upside, It is extremely rare to get 7, and given the back and forth on the Daily, weak to strong hand transfers, I think the odds are better than not, that at the bare minimum we either break down finally on this timeframe to re-accumulate before moving higher, or just all out get a change of trend leading to multiple breaks to the downside
On the 2 hour, looking at the weekly profiles, it looks like we had multiple accumulations on the last move up, a building of a short position, we broke structure once to the downside, got in a last accumulation, and have entered markdown. Like I said, I am not saying that trend has changed, but I do believe we are going to at least break 3D structure at 6770's, at which point we can make a further determination
I am looking for an early rally next week, into PD value before continuing the down move. I will be looking for short entries above 6910 and layering up to 6930
Invalidation above 6935
ZENUSDT Golden Support Holds Bulls Target Higher LevelsZENUSDT has shown a very strong reaction at the ascending dynamic trendline, which continues to act as a key golden support. Price has now respected this trendline for the fifth time, triggering another impulsive bullish response that drove price up to the $27 region. Following this rally, the ongoing pullback is viewed as a buying opportunity, with the broader structure favoring a continuation move toward the $45 target zone, provided the dynamic support remains intact.
GBPUSD - Bulls Ready to Strike?Daily Chart
On the daily chart, both the swing structure and fractal structure remain bullish, with a significant amount of liquidity resting above the current high.
We also saw a clean reaction from the daily bullish FVG, which aligned perfectly with a daily demand (OB) — giving us a solid technical foundation for a potential bullish continuation in the upcoming days.
In other words, the daily structure suggests momentum could build to clear the liquidity above.
4H Chart
The 4H chart makes the price action even clearer.
Following the news-driven move yesterday, price invalidated a false bullish fractal break, then immediately swept the 4H fractal low, and finally broke fractal structure to the upside again.
In my view, this sequence shows buyers flushing out remaining sellers before attempting continuation higher — a typical liquidity play before momentum kicks in.
I consider a long setup, but only if price retraces into discounted levels of the current 4H fractal structure.
USDCHF - Bears Taking Control?Daily Chart
On the daily chart, price has finally reached the 0.50 retracement of both the initial fractal leg and the bearish swing structure.
Most importantly, we saw a reaction from the last bearish daily FVG, which is aligned with an unmitigated daily BB.
From this point forward, LTF price action is key to validate short entries. If sellers confirm intent on lower timeframes, short opportunities become valid.
4H Chart
On the 4H chart, after tapping the daily POIs, we observed a shift in fractal structure to bearish, reinforcing the idea of immediate reaction and potential continuation to the downside.
My plan is to place a sell limit at the premium area of the newly formed bearish 4H fractal structure and manage the trade from there.
GBPJPYWelcome to my TradingView journal.
All content shared here is provided
strictly for educational and informational purposes only. The purpose of this analysis is to document market structure, liquidity behavior, and price delivery through an institutional lens. Nothing presented constitutes financial advice, trade signals, or investment recommendations.
🔍 Market Structure Context
GBPJPY has recently delivered a clear bullish break of structure (BOS), confirming a shift in short-term directional intent. The impulsive expansion suggests strong participation rather than corrective price movement, indicating that prior sell-side liquidity has been absorbed.
Following the expansion, price has begun to stabilize above the broken structure, reflecting acceptance at higher levels rather than immediate rejection.
🧠 Demand Zone Perspective
The highlighted demand zone marks the origin of the bullish displacement. From an institutional perspective, this zone is treated as a contextual reference, not a signal. Such areas often represent locations where imbalance entered the market with conviction.
If price revisits this zone, the nature of the reaction will provide insight into whether bullish order-flow remains present or whether deeper rebalancing is required.
⚖️ Probabilistic Framework
Markets operate on probabilities, not certainty.
From current conditions:
•Continuation remains valid while demand holds
•Corrective pullbacks may occur to rebalance inefficiencies
•Consolidation is possible as liquidity redistributes
All scenarios remain valid until price confirms or invalidates them.
📌 Channel Philosophy
This channel is built around:
•Structure over indicators
•Liquidity logic over emotion
•Process over prediction
•Education over hype
There will be no signals, no guarantees, and no performance claims — only clean charts, disciplined reasoning, and transparent analysis.
If you value institutional logic, objective market commentary, and a rule-based analytical approach, you’re welcome to follow and engage.
Let price tell the story.
ETH M30 HTF FVG Tap and Mean Reversion Pullback Setup📝 Description
ETH on M30 just delivered a strong impulse into HTF premium, tapping the H1/30M FVG and stalling. The move looks exhaustive, with price now trading at a reaction zone where a mean-reversion pullback is favored before any continuation attempt.
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📈 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Short-term pullback while below 3,030–3,040
Short Setup (Reactive):
• Entry (Sell): 3,022
• Stop Loss: Above 3,040
• TP1: 3,008.80
• TP2: 2,994.88
• TP3: 2,979.74
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🎯 ICT & SMC Notes
• Price tapped HTF FVG (H1/30M)
• Trading deep in premium
• Downside H1 FVG acting as draw
• Momentum cooling after impulse
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🧩 Summary
This is a classic impulse to premium reaction and pullback setup. As long as ETH remains capped below the FVG, odds favor a rotation toward 3,009 to 2,980. Acceptance above premium invalidates the short.
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🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
With markets still liquidity-driven and no fresh risk-on catalyst, short-term reactions at HTF imbalances tend to resolve with mean reversion. Trade levels, manage risk, and scale out at targets.
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⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
GBPAUD was bearishIt was bearish all day in New years day, i see that is loosing momentum to the downside in the 4 Hour and possibly reversing soon. I wait on my MacD signal and correlated with candlestick pattern for the entry on a potntial reversal and take out liquidity areas. The 4H, 1H, and 15M timeframes is key right now and once they all correlate together we will look for the bullish move.






















