Weekly Forecast 1/21/25-1/24/25Disclaimer:
I trade ICT and use ICT terminology in my analysis.
Nothing in the market is certain; this is what I would like to see price action playout this week.
This is not financial advice.
The forecast is written on the chart.
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ How to trade this Falling Wedge.Nasdaq is trading inside a Falling Wedge for exactly 1 month, since the December 16th 2024 High.
The current bullish wave has been rejected on its top but today is holding the MA50 (4h) so far.
The previous bearish waves that got rejected on the Wedge's top, gave a confirmed sell signal after the MA50 (4h) was crossed.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell below the MA50 (4h) and Channel Up (bullish wave).
2. Buy above the top (Falling Resistance) of the Falling Wedge.
Targets:
1. 20600 (symmetric higher lows trendline like January 2nd).
2. 21700 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is trading above its MA trendline. This favors slightly the bullish trend.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
NASDAQ: First 4H Death Cross since September is a Buy Signal!Nasdaq is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.062, MACD = -70.200, ADX = 29.762) as it is on a downtrend since December 16th, almost 1 month. Technically this downtrend is the bearish wave of the medium term Channel Up. Last Wednesday the index formed its first 4H Death Cross since September 10th 2024 and interestingly enough, instead of bullish, it was a buy signal then. As the current bearish wave is now almost at the bottom of the Channel Up, this is technically a HL, thus the most efficient buy entry on the short term. The September bullish wave peaked on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension before a pullback under the 4H MA50 again, so we now turn bullish on Nasdaq, aiming again for the 1.236 Fib (TP = 22,500).
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NASDAQ Outlook IF the daily close above the weekly level 20491.21 or the Daily candle closes bullish , I'll be looking for buys 📈↗️opportunity to 21009.46
That's because of the imbalance that needs to be filled around that zone. Hence I'm going to watch how price reacts at that level for sell continuation.
The monthly candle is bearish. It might end bearish by the end of the Month.
Kindly boost this if you find it insightful ciao!
NASDAQ One more low to go.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down since the December 16 2024 High. So far it has made two Lows and each one bottomed after the 4H RSI made Double Bottom as seen on the chart.
Right now the 4H RSI just turned oversold below 30.00, so technically we still have room for one last Low before we see a rebound. We expect the next Bullish Leg to target at least 21300, which is marginally below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, the level that formed the previous two Lower Highs of the Channel Down.
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NASDAQ: The buy zone is under the 1D MA50.Nasdaq is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.510, MACD = 54.540, ADX = 27.946) as it got rejected yesterday back to its 1D MA50. This trendline is holding since September 12th and during this 4 month period is sustained a very steady uptrend. This is so far the bullish sequence with the slowest pace inside the 2 year Channel Up. This lack of strength along with the fact that the 1D RSI formed a pattern that during these 2 years was followed by a dip under the 1D MA50, suggests that it might be best waiting for the price to hit the 1D MA100 before placing a long term buy again. Once this condition is met, we will go long and aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 24,350), which was always hit when a Channel Top was priced.
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NASDAQ rebounding strongly on its 1D MA50. 1 month rally ahead.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and hit last Tuesday its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) exactly on the Channel's bottom. Even though it marginally broke it, the 1D candle closed exactly on the 1D MA50, causing a strong bullish Friday reaction.
As today opened equally green, we technically view this sequence as the start of the new Bullish Leg of the pattern, which may be confirmed today if the 1D RSI breaks above its MA (yellow trend-line), as both previous Bullish Legs did.
Our Target is 22600, which represents a +9.00% rise, the minimum a Bullish Leg had within this Channel Up.
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NASDAQ Double Bottom starting the new bullish waveNasdaq / US100 is trading inside a 5 month Channel Up.
The price made a Double Bottom on January 2nd and rebounded today back to hit the 4hour MA50.
If it crosses above the Falling Resistance, we will have a technical confirmation of the new bullish wave, similar to September 12th 2024.
That bullish wave hit the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
Buy and target 22400 (Fib 1.236).
Previous chart:
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🦘🦘 Aussie Kangaroo Returns Home In The OutbackThe Australian dollar has been taking a bath. It’s gone from buying 71 US cents at the beginning of the year to netting you just 63.3 US cents against the benchmark greenback.
The dollar is down over the last year against most currencies, and down over the past few weeks against almost every currency.
The humble Aussie dollar is suffering in particular against European currencies: Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc and the Euro.
However, even in Japan where the AUD is up over the year so far, it is down in recent weeks.
What’s going on? The answer is two-fold.
👉 America’s economy is stronger than expected. And China is weaker, so Chinese yuan has little to no chance of dethroning the US dollar, even as global de-dollarization happens.
👉 Australia gets hit on both of those trades.
Difference between 10-Year United States and Australian Govt Debt becomes lower
Technical graph for FX:AUDUSD indicates that Aussie has a lot down to deliver.
2024 is a wrap - time for 2025 outlook - let's go2024 will be a memorable year
-23% gains
-Mag 7 + Semiconductors + Bitcoin all contributing nicely
-PLTR was the top performing stock in the S&P 500 (impressive 340.48%)
As always, 2024 wasn't in a straight line up, though it felt like it at times
VIX had #1 and #2 largest single day moves ever (Aug 5 and Dec 18)
April was a sticky inflation pullback month
August was a Bank of Japan deleveraging weekend scare
FED dominated the catalysts with guidance, narrative, and wait and see between employment and inflation data
2025 will bring new president, new policy, new Republican power. Many were excited about this but there are still checks and balances and markets need more reassurance than hyperbole. I plan to look at income plays and trading plays were buy and hold. Whatever I do own equities and ETFs wise, I want protection just in case the market isn't as straightforward and bullish like it has been since Oct 2022.
Happy New Year - thanks for watching!!! See you in 2025!!!
NASDAQ 100 index / US 100 outlook Based on the previous week rejection of the 21742.33 zone, I'm anticipating price to come back to 21610.60 which is my daily point of interest for sell continuation (a pullback os anticipated) taking the Monday high as Inducement. But I'm looking forward to catching the pullback with the H4 POI: 21045.73 , yesterday's low as Inducement hence buying till we reach my daily poi before the sell continuation.
What's your outlook on this.
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NASDAQ headed into a volatile January but uptrend remains intactNasdaq (NDX) is yet again testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) following the direct hit of December 20. Despite the pull-back, it is technically respecting the 2-year Channel Up that it's been trading in since the December 26 2022 market bottom. Its most recent Higher Low was on the August 05 2024 1W candle, which initiated the Bullish Leg we're currently in.
Until we get a 1W candle closing below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the pattern remains intact and the strategy is to continue buying into the current Bullish Leg. The previous two Bullish Legs had one main pull-back/ correction sequence each and apart from that, the majority of the Leg was technically a straight uptrend. Given that the current Bullish Leg has been trading above its 1D MA50 since September 12, it is not unlikely to see a correction below it.
Technically, it could be similar to the previous Bullish Leg (March 04 - April 15 2024), as we are trading within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci range. This means that one more rise above the 0.382 Fib is to be expected in the first week of January but it is likely to then see a correction for the rest of the month below the 1D MA50 into the first 2 weeks of February.
If after that, the 0.5 Fib and 1D MA200 levels hold, we expect the Bullish Leg to resume the uptrend and target 25300. That would be a rise of around +48%, which is the % rise of both previous Bullish Legs.
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