NASDAQ 100 CFD
NAS100 Analysis: Trend, VWAP, Three-Drive Pattern, and Fibonacci📹 In this video, we take a detailed look at the NASDAQ/NAS100, which is currently in a strong bullish trend 📈. While the momentum is impressive, price may now be overextended, so caution is important ⚠️.
🔎 I share how I incorporate the VWAP, three-drive patterns, and the Fibonacci retracement tool to help plan high-probability trades 🎯.
📊 We also cover trend analysis, price action, and market structure, giving you a full breakdown of how these indicators work together to identify potential setups 🚀.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk.
Is the Nasdaq a Bubble? A Technical Correction Is PossibleCME_MINI:NQ1!
Here’s a breakdown of the current Nasdaq correction scenarios based on the Nasdaq Futures (NQ1!) chart.
Every time I reached the top of the channel, an adjustment came out.
Based on the monthly chart, it has closed positively for six consecutive months since the tariff reduction, and it is judged to have entered the overbought zone by breaking through the upper Bollinger Band.
While a Santa Rally could still occur in Q4, we expect a short-term correction within one to two weeks.
Your follow and boost would mean a lot. 🚀
I am Korean and I used Google Translate.
QQQ : Stay heavy on positionsQQQ : Stay heavy on positions (QLD, TQQQ)
Entering a risk-on, high-volatility zone.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
SPY : Stay heavy on positionsSPY : Stay heavy on positions (2x leverage)
Entering a risk-on, high-volatility zone.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold SPY(+QQQ) and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of SSO(+QLD) and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
NASDAQ Channel Up found support and aims for 25600.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the August 28 High and on Friday it tested its 1H MA100 (green trend-line) again and rebounded. That has been a bullish continuation signal within this pattern every time a 1H MA50/ 100 takes place.
On the previous Bullish Leg that confirmed the upside continuation all the way to the 2.382 Fibonacci extension before a 1H MA50/ 100 Bearish Cross and new Low.
As a result, the current short-term Target on Nasdaq is 25600.
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Will AMD recover and catch up with NVDA? updated/Revised Outlook🔸Hello traders, today let's review 2days/candle price chart for AMD.
Price contained within bullish channel since 2021, however currently
pullback/correction in progress.
🔸65% correction in progress, based on previous swings expected to complete at/near 88/90 USD in Q1 2025. Until then it's recommended to stay out.
🔸Once we bottom out near 90 USD in Q1 2025, expecting bullish swing 265% gains off the lows, so projected high is 310/320 USD.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: Bulls wait for correction to complete at/near 85 usd in Q1 2025 and get ready to BUY/HOLD. Bullish impulse / reversal off the lows price target based on measured move projection is 310/320 USD. patience required, do not expect miracle/overnight gains in this market. good luck!
🎁Please hit the like button and
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
US100 Trading Plan ¦ Layering Strategy + Macro Sentiment Drivers🚀 NASDAQ100 / US100 Index – Thief Money Heist Plan 🎭
📌 Plan: Bullish Swing / Scalping Setup
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), here’s the heist-style breakdown for US100 🔑:
🏴☠️ Entry Style (Thief Layering Strategy)
Using layered limit orders for flexibility & precision:
• 23200.0
• 23250.0
• 23300.0
• 23350.0
(You may increase limit layers based on your strategy & risk appetite)
📉 Moving Average Pullback Entry Plan
• Buy entries on pullbacks to the Fibo level 382 Triangular Moving average zone.
• Look for bullish candles confirming the bounce from these MAs.
• This offers better risk-to-reward by catching momentum on retracements instead of chasing highs.
❓ Why This Works?
• Moving averages often act as dynamic support/resistance in trending markets.
• Institutional traders & algos track them heavily, making them high-probability zones.
• Combining with layering entries = higher flexibility + reduced risk of mistimed single entry.
🛡️ Stop Loss (Protect the Vault)
• Thief SL: @23000.0
• Reminder: Adjust your SL based on your own strategy & risk tolerance.
🎯 Target (Escape Zone)
• Overbought + Trap Zone ahead!
• Escape target: @23750.0
• Note: Don’t rely only on my TP — secure profits at your own pace and risk.
📊 US100 Index CFD Real-Time Data Sep 03
📈 Daily Change: +133.47 (+0.57%)
📅 Monthly Performance: +0.76%
📆 Yearly Performance: +23.48%
😰😊 Fear & Greed Index
📊 Current Reading: 53/100 (Neutral)
🧐 Interpretation: Market sentiment is balanced, showing neither extreme fear nor greed. Investors are cautious but not panicked.
🧠 Retail vs. Institutional Sentiment
👥 Retail Traders: Moderately bullish (55% Long, 45% Short)
🏦 Institutional Traders: Slightly cautious (50% Long, 50% Short)
🔑 Key Drivers: Mixed signals from manufacturing data and upcoming labor market reports.
📉📈 Fundamental & Macro Score
📊 Macro Score: 6/10
Manufacturing PMI (48.7) still in contraction but improving.
Labor market data (JOLTS) awaited for clarity.
⚡ Volatility Score: 5/10 (Moderate)
VIX near average levels, indicating stable expectations.
💧 Liquidity Score: 7/10
Strong volume and breadth in large-cap tech stocks.
🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook
✅ Bullish (Long): 60%
Supported by strong yearly gains and resilience in big tech.
⚠️ Bearish (Short): 40%
Concerns over manufacturing contraction and inflation pressures.
💡 Key Takeaways
📈 US100 is trending mildly positive today (+0.57%).
😐 Sentiment is neutral—no extreme fear or greed.
📊 Macro data hints at cautious optimism but watch for upcoming labor reports.
🐂 Overall bias leans slightly bullish for long-term holders.
📊 Related Pairs to Watch
FOREXCOM:SPX500
TVC:DJI
TVC:VIX
NASDAQ:NDX
FX:USDOLLAR
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#NASDAQ100 #US100 #NDX #SPX500 #DJI #TradingView #SwingTrade #ScalpTrading #LayeringStrategy #MarketAnalysis
NASDAQ 100 (1W) – Elliott Wave + Smart Money Analysis by FIBCOSThe index (NASDAQ) continues its macro impulsive structure, now expanding through Wave (3) — targeting the 2.618 Fibonacci extension near 26,997( 27K ).
Smart Money is driving this leg with clear bullish order flow, creating multiple Fair Value Gaps and Breaks of Structure along the way.
After this expansion, we expect a Wave (4) correction between 22,000–17,500, where institutional demand zones await for re-accumulation before the next macro bullish leg (Wave 5) toward 35,000–38,000.
📊 Confluence Highlights:
Wave (3) → 2.618 extension (target zone: 26.9K–27K)
Wave (4) → 0.382–0.618 retracement (zone: 22K–18K)
Wave (5) → 1.618 projection (target zone: 35K–38K)
🧠 Elliott Wave Theory Interpretation
① Wave (1) — The Initial Expansion (2020–2021)
Early bullish impulse following pandemic recovery.
Represents Smart Money accumulation followed by a breakout.
Retail participation remains limited; institutional footprints dominate.
② Wave (2) — Corrective Pullback (2022–2023)
Sharp decline toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone.
This phase was a liquidity grab — Smart Money re-entering after shaking out weak hands.
Price formed a higher low , maintaining long-term bullish structure.
③ Wave (3) — The Power Leg (2023–2026)
The strongest and most extended wave — aligned perfectly with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~26,997 zone).
Confirms institutional markup phase , where:
Retail short sellers are trapped.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are created during impulsive moves.
Continuous Break of Structure (BOS) validates bullish order flow.
Smaller degree sub-waves (1–5) visible inside, confirming internal impulse rhythm.
④ Wave (4) — The Upcoming Correction (2026–2027)
Expected macro re-accumulation zone , likely between 22,000 – 17,500 .
Market may enter a sideways complex correction (W–X–Y)/(W-X-Y-X-Z) pattern.
This is the Smart Money re-accumulation phase — liquidity collection before the next macro expansion.
Demand zones: previous unmitigated order blocks around 20,000–18,000 area.
⑤ Wave (5) — The Final Expansion (2028–2029)
After consolidation, the index may aim for new all-time highs toward 35,000–38,000 range.
This represents a distribution phase , where Smart Money offloads positions near cycle tops.
Expect divergence in momentum indicators , hinting at the end of the 5-wave structure.
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💡 Smart Money Concept (SMC) Confluence
Concept | Observation | Implication
Liquidity Sweep - Below 2022–2023 lows (Smart Money accumulation confirmation)
Order Blocks - 22,000–18,000 zone {Institutional demand zone for Wave (4)}
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) During Wave (3) impulsive rise {Will likely get mitigated during Wave (4)}
Break of Structure (BOS ) Continuous bullish BOS confirms institutional intent
Premium/Discount Zones Current price at premium (above equilibrium) Ideal region for institutional profit-taking
🧭 Smart Money Flow:
Accumulation → Expansion → Re-accumulation → Final Distribution
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📐 Fibonacci Confluence Levels
Wave (3) → 2.618× extension of Wave (1–2) → ~26,997 (expected macro resistance).
Wave (4) → retracement likely between 0.382–0.618 → 22,000–17,500 zone.
Wave (5) → projected 1.618× of Wave (1–3) → 35,000–38,000 .
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🧭 Market Outlook Summary
Timeframe | Bias | Expectation
Short-Term (2025–2026) 📈 Bullish Continuation toward 26,900–27,000
Medium-Term (2026–2027) ⚠ Corrective Re-accumulation phase, smart money reloads
Long-Term (2028–2029) 🚀 Bullish Wave (5) macro expansion toward 35K–38K
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🔖 FIBCOS Summary
> NASDAQ 100 Weekly Chart (Elliott + SMC)
Currently expanding through a powerful Wave (3) toward the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~27K).
After completion, a macro correction (Wave 4) is expected, providing the next Smart Money accumulation zone between 22K–18K before the final Wave 5 expansion toward new highs beyond 35K.
📘 Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Educational purpose only.
#FIBCOS #NASDAQ100 #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #MarketCycle #Fibonacci
ALERT: VIX-NDX COVARIANCE HITS DANGER ZONEA few days ago, my custom VIX–Price Covariance Monitor started flashing red... and it hasn’t cooled off since.
Here’s what that means 👇
- The TVC:VIX (volatility index) and NASDAQ:NDX (Nasdaq 100) are now moving in the same direction.
That’s not normal.
Usually, when stocks rise, volatility falls.
But when both start climbing together — it means something under the surface is fracturing.
Half the times this correlation flips positive, the market corrects or worse, it crashes.
I’m not panic‑selling, but I’m definitely not buying either for now.
No new longs unless it’s a screaming opportunity.
In the meantime? Stacking cash and sitting tight.
This is time to play close attention to the market,
QQQ : Stay heavy on positionsQQQ : Stay heavy on positions (QLD, TQQQ)
Entering a risk-on, high-volatility zone.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
NASDAQ in no action zone. Buy break-out or pull-back.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and its most recent low has been on its 4H MA100 (green trend-line) 2 days ago.
As long as it holds, it maintains the short-term bullish trend but a confirmed buy signal would be after the price breaks above its previous 24800 High.
Until it does, it might be within a technical Bearish Leg similar to late August's and mid June's that both broke below the 4H MA100 before bottoming on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up and rebounded. The 4H RSI Lower Highs structure shows that we might be on such a pull-back sequence, which turns into a buy below 33.00 (RSI).
As a result, we will either wait for a 24800 break-out or a 1D MA50 (black trend-line) pull-back before initiating a buy again. In both cases, our Target is 25500 (just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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SPY trend Broken? Use this Long / Short StrategyLast week was a choppy sell off in the markets.
We did see the bulls defend price later into the week by bouncing the main indices very nicely.
We discuss the simple support / resistance where you should be watching.
Using the daily 7MA as resistance can be shorted however if we recapture and close above, then the markets remain a long to new highs.
The trend of higher lows is still in tact signaling bullish strength... can we search for a new higher high?
September 2025 Market Summary Gold and ForexProjectSyndicate Market Summary September 2025
📊 MTD performance
🟡 GOLD (XAUUSD): 3,759.65 | +286.65 (+8.31%)
💶 EURUSD: 1.1702 | +16 pips (+0.14%)
💷 GBPUSD: 1.3392 | −112 pips (−0.83%)
💴 USDJPY: 149.19 | +211 pips (+1.43%)
📈 SPX: 6,637.97 | +236.46 (+3.69%)
📈 NDX: 24,503.57 | +1,483.10 (+6.44%)
________________________________________
🗞 September overview
• 🇺🇸 The Fed cut 25 bps on September 17 and flagged the possibility of further cuts this year, reinforcing a softer USD bias and boosting gold demand.
• 🇪🇺 The ECB held rates on September 11, though left the door open for easing later.
• 🇬🇧 The Bank of England held rates and slowed quantitative tightening on September 18.
• 🇯🇵 The BoJ maintained a “hawkish hold” on September 19, started unwinding ETF/REIT holdings, and signaled possible rate risks into October — supporting JPY on abrupt USD strength.
• 🟡 Gold made a fresh intramonth high near ~$3,790, before settling slightly lower.
• Stronger U.S. economic data mid-month (jobs, yields) briefly undercut rate cut expectations, leading to a temporary gold dip, but the momentum has largely resumed.
• Tariff announcements and trade-policy uncertainty added safe-haven tailwinds to gold.
________________________________________
🟡 Gold Market Overview – September 2025
✨ Key Highlights & Drivers
• All-time high revisit: Spot gold pushed toward $3,790 mid-month on renewed enthusiasm for Fed easing and weaker USD.
• Volatility around economic surprises: Upside surprises in US data (jobs, GDP) triggered brief USD strength that pressured gold, but the downside was limited.
• Fed narrative remains gold’s ally: The dovish pivot (25 bps cut + future cuts flagged) continues to lend structural support to gold.
• ETF & institutional flows: Inflows into gold ETFs have reaffirmed investor appetite for safe-haven exposure.
• Risk / geopolitical spillovers: Oil price jitters, trade frictions, and general macro uncertainty underpin demand for non-correlated assets.
• Technical posture: After surging, gold has found interim support in the region of ~$3,650–3,700, with resistance clustering near $3,800. A sustained break above the latter could open targets toward $3,900+.
📊 Performance Recap
Gold has posted one of its strongest monthly performances of 2025, currently up ~8.7 % MTD.
Stronger parts of the rally were clustered around rate cut confirmation and safe-haven demand spikes.
🔍 Risks & Watch-Outs
• A surprise resurgence in U.S. economic strength (inflation, jobs) could push rate markets back toward dovish skepticism, pressuring gold.
• A re-strengthening USD (driven by rates or yield spreads) will be headwind for dollar‐priced gold.
• Central bank actions: further buying or selling by official sectors could tilt balance.
• Technical overextension: short-term pullbacks or consolidations are plausible given the sharp run-up.
________________________________________
💱 FX Landscape – September 2025
• EURUSD: The pair remains stuck under ~1.1700, recovering modestly from USD spikes but lacking strong directional conviction.
• GBPUSD: Under pressure through the month, sliding toward 1.3350 as sterling weakens on yield differentials and global risk dynamics.
• USDJPY: Strength in yields and risk dynamics have nudged USDJPY higher, though BoJ vigilance and intervention risk temper runaway moves.
Broader theme: while risk sentiment supports carry / USD strength, central bank policy cycles and macro surprises are injecting volatility and preventing runaway trends.
________________________________________
📝 Summary & Key Takeaways
✅ What Worked in September
• Gold leveraged dovish central bank messaging and USD softness to consistently outperform across risk regimes.
• Positioning toward safe havens paid off in a month marked by macro surprises and geopolitical noise.
• FX markets remained choppy, with no clear trending momentum — caution was rewarded.
⚠️ What to Watch Going Forward
• U.S. data flow — especially inflation, jobs, and PCE — could reshape Fed expectations and thus gold/FX direction.
• USD momentum — a reversal in dollar strength could compress gold gains; sustained USD weakness could accelerate the bull run.
• Intervention / central banks — any surprises from BoJ, PBoC, or central banks stepping into gold or FX markets could upend positioning.
• Technical zones — if gold can break and hold above $3,800, it may open new leg toward $3,900+; failure may invite a pullback toward $3,650–3,700.
QQQ : Stay heavy on positionsQQQ : Stay heavy on positions (QLD, TQQQ)
Entering a risk-on, high-volatility zone.
A signal for catching a bounce has emerged.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
SPY : Stay heavy on positionsSPY : Stay heavy on positions (2x leverage)
Entering a risk-on, high-volatility zone.
A signal for catching a bounce has emerged.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold SPY(+QQQ) and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of SSO(+QLD) and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
NASDAQ NAS100 Analysis: Three-Drive Pattern, VWAP & Trade Plan📊 The NASDAQ 100 has been riding a strong bullish trend, pushing higher with relentless momentum. On the daily timeframe, price now looks heavily overextended 📈.
🔎 Zooming into the 4-hour chart, the overextension is even more apparent. In trending markets, we often observe a three-drive pattern (sometimes a fourth) before an aggressive correction occurs.
⚡ I’m keeping an eye out for a sharp pullback. If price finds support and confirms with a bullish break of market structure, this could present a high-probability long entry setup 🚀.
📹 In the video, I also dive into how I use the VWAP and Fibonacci retracement tools. Both are powerful indicators that provide valuable insight and a trading edge 🔧.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk.
NASDAQ September's Channel Up targets 24900.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the September 02 Low and at the moment it is unfolding its 2nd Bullish Leg following the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) bounce on September 17.
Based on the previous 4H MA50 Bullish Leg, the sequence should peak below the 2.382 Fibonacci extension at a maximum +3.96% rise. Our Target is slightly below those at 24900.
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Nasdaq-100 (NDX) Weekly Chart 2025 Chart Context
This weekly timeframe analysis of the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) forms a key pillar in our 2025 macro analysis series. Following the breakout structure seen in TOTAL, TOTAL2, BTC.D, and US10Y, this chart utilizes 2 Fibonacci tools (1 trend-based extensions and 1 retracement) to project potential corrective and expansion scenarios.
Fibonacci Tools Used:
Fibonacci Retracement : Applies to the recent smaller swing to determine micro retracement zones and cluster supports.
0=20674 and 100=10504
Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension: Drawn using a three-leg structure (point A= 3993 to B=16724 to C10504) to forecast upside targets beyond ATH.
All take-profit (TP) levels: TP1 (~23,400), TP2 (~26,700), and TP3 (~30,344.49)—are located at confluence zones where Fibonacci levels from different tools align, reinforcing their validity and strength.
There is a 4TP above all the Visible TPs
Key price references:
0% retracement: ~20,674.71
Next Resistance ~23,400 (confluence of extensions and psychological resistance)
Projected TPs:
1TP=~23,400,
2TP=~26,700,
3TP=~30,344.49,
4TP=44000
Support/Resistance:
Red zone: ~16,700–18,300 (historical S/R and correction target and Fib Confluences)
Resistance zone: ~23,000–23,400 ,
22000(ATH area)
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Retracement from ~20674 to ~15732 marks the initial corrective range.
Trend-Based Extensions forecast:
TP1 (~23,400): First breakout resistance
TP2 (~26,700): Medium-term expansion zone
TP3 (~30,344): Long-term target if macro tailwinds persist
Scenario Pathways:
Bullish Continuation: Breaks above ATH to reach TP2/TP3
Healthy Correction: Pullback to ~20,600 or deeper ~18,300 before resumption
Deep Correction: Revisits ~16,700 zone if macro environment deteriorates
Fundamental Context:
Tech Stocks & Economic Sentiment: NDX is often the first to move during liquidity expansions. Its performance signals risk-on behavior across global equity markets.
Rate Cuts in 2025: With anticipated Fed rate cuts, tech stocks are primed for inflows. Forward earnings valuations rise, justifying extended upside in high-beta tech.
AI Boom & Earnings Growth: Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward AI, cloud, and semiconductors—sectors expected to lead earnings surprises.
NDX Influence on Gold and Crypto
When NDX rallies:
Crypto: Risk appetite improves. Capital rotation flows into altcoins and layer-1 assets.
Bitcoin: Often sees parallel inflows, especially during strong tech rallies (e.g., 2020).
TOTAL & TOTAL3: Begin breakout patterns if NDX continues to surge.
Gold: May stall or correct as investors favor risk assets. However, gold still holds due to macro hedging and real yield pressures.
When NDX corrects:
Crypto: Volatility spikes. Altcoins bleed faster.
Bitcoin: Short-term dip but may decouple if viewed as digital gold.
Gold: Benefits from flight-to-safety behavior.
US10Y: Often reacts inversely to NDX moves—used for confirmation.
Search Highlights (2024–2025):
Institutions view NDX correction as signal to rotate into commodities (incl. gold).
Cross-market correlations show NDX peaks often precede crypto mini-rallies.
De-risking from NDX often triggers gold strength, especially in geopolitical or inflationary backdrops.
Bias & Strategy Implication
Primary Bias: Bullish
Expecting upside continuation to 26,700–30,000 zone
Multiple correction opportunities are present even during rally
Strategic Actions:
Monitor for correction to yellow/red zones for accumulation
Use NDX behavior as leading macro signal for crypto rotations
Watch resistance at 23,400 closely; breakout confirms trend extension
Time Horizon
Short-Term (1–2 months): Watch for breakout or correction to ~20,600–18,300
Mid-Term (3–6 months): Probable test of ~26,700
Long-Term (6–12 months): Potential expansion to ~30,344.49






















