Can NASDAQ100’s Retest Turn Into a Full-Fledged Rally?⚡ NASDAQ100 — “The Wall Street Engine” Trade Opportunity Guide (Swing / Day Trade)
Plan:
📈 Bullish confirmation awaited at the Hull Moving Average retest.
When price respects that dynamic zone and momentum aligns, the Thief layers up — ready to stack positions like a pro!
💰 Thief Strategy Playbook:
Thief’s weapon? Layering entries — the art of scaling in like a patient hunter.
Multiple buy limit orders are placed around:
🔹 24,400 🔹 24,500 🔹 24,600
(You can adjust or add more layers based on your own trading structure and capital.)
🛡️ Stop-Loss:
This is the Thief’s SL → @24,200
🕵️♂️ Note to all Thief OGs:
I’m not recommending that you copy my SL — risk management is your call.
Remember: Make money, then take money at your own risk.
🎯 Target Zone:
@25,300 — where the POLICE BARRICADE (resistance) stands tall!
⚠️ The zone aligns with overbought levels + liquidity trap potential, so don’t overstay your welcome.
Escape with profits like a smart thief before the market cuffs you! 💨
🕵️♂️ Note again to Thief OGs:
Targets are flexible — adapt based on your execution and structure confirmation.
🔍 Correlated Assets to Watch:
SP:SPX (S&P500) — often mirrors NASDAQ’s overall direction.
TVC:DJI (Dow Jones) — gives early risk-on/risk-off sentiment clues.
TVC:US10Y (US Treasury Yield) — rising yields can pressure tech stocks.
TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) — watch for volatility spikes; they often precede reversals.
Correlation Key Insight:
When the dollar weakens and yields cool, NASDAQ tends to fly 🚀 — liquidity rotation favors growth stocks and tech-heavy indices.
⚙️ Quick Recap:
✅ Bias: Bullish (with retest confirmation at Hull MA)
💸 Entry Zone: 24,400 → 24,600 (Layered limits)
🧱 SL: 24,200 (risk-controlled zone)
🎯 TP: 25,300 (liquidity + resistance zone)
⚠️ Risk: Adjust position size and trail stops as structure evolves
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
📜 Disclaimer:
This is a Thief-style trading strategy — designed for entertainment, education, and market storytelling. Trade responsibly; it’s just for fun, not financial advice.
#NASDAQ100 #US100 #IndexTrading #HullMA #PriceAction #MarketStructure #SwingTrade #DayTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #TradingCommunity #ThiefTrader #ChartArt #EditorPickCandidate
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ NAS100 Trade Plan: VWAP & Volume Profile StrategyI’m currently watching the NASDAQ #100 (#NDX) 📊. After a strong correction due to geopolitical turmoil 🌍, the market rebounded just as aggressively. Right now, price is trading above VWAP 📈. If it stays above VWAP, I’ll be looking for a long opportunity.
In the video, we zoom into a 30-minute timeframe ⏱️, using VWAP and Volume Profile to plan the trade. If price respects these levels, we can take a long. If it falls below the support level ❌, we abandon this idea.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Nasdaq - Clearly heading to $30.000!🎉Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) points much higher:
🔎Analysis summary:
Yes, we witnessed a short term correction over the past couple of days. But no, this does not mean that the bullrun is now entirely over. In fact, looking at the longer term rising channel pattern, the Nasdaq can still rally higher until it will retest the upper trendline.
📝Levels to watch:
$25.000, $30.000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
$MSTR Swing Trade Setup: Layered Short Entries on Breakout📉 MSTR "STRATEGY INC" STOCK – Bearish Thief Plan (Swing/Scalp Setup)
⚡ Trade Setup (Bearish Pending Order Plan)
Asset: NASDAQ:MSTR (MicroStrategy Inc.)
Plan: Bearish (waiting for support breakout confirmation).
Entry Zone:
Pending breakout entry @ 320.00 ⚡
Layered “Thief” Strategy (scaling entries):
Sell Limit Layers: 340.00 / 330.00 / 320.00
You may add or adjust layers based on your own risk tolerance.
🔔 Set TradingView alerts at breakout levels to track price action.
Stop Loss (Thief Style):
Protective SL @ 360.00 (after breakout confirmation).
Adjust per your strategy & risk management.
Target Zone (Exit):
Police barricade support @ 290.00
Note: Take profit is discretionary — escape with profits at your own chosen level 🚪💰.
🔑 Why This Plan? (Thief Strategy Context)
The Thief Plan = using multiple layered limit entries after a breakout for better risk/reward.
Scaling entries gives flexibility while reducing FOMO and chasing.
Exit early at support barricades or oversold traps.
📊 MicroStrategy (MSTR) Market Data Report
As of September 7, 2025
1. Retail & Institutional Sentiment 🤝
Retail: Mixed / cautious (crypto exposure volatility).
Institutional: Neutral → slightly bearish (Bitcoin correlation + regulatory risk).
Estimated Sentiment: 55% Neutral / 30% Bearish / 15% Bullish.
2. Fear & Greed Index 😨😋
Current level: Neutral ~50/100
Suggests balanced emotions → no extreme greed or fear.
3. Fundamental & Macro Scores 📈📉
Fundamental ~60/100: MSTR tied to Bitcoin trends, highly volatile.
Macro ~55/100: Pressures include crypto regulation, tech volatility, interest rates.
Bitcoin remains the key driver.
4. Market Outlook 🐂🐻
Bull Case: BTC rally → MSTR boost, institutional adoption helps.
Bear Case: Regulatory clampdowns, BTC volatility → downside pressure.
Overall: Neutral → Slightly Bearish (short-term caution).
🚀 Key Takeaways
NASDAQ:MSTR moves in sync with Bitcoin → monitor BTC charts closely.
Sentiment is not strongly bullish → short setups have edge here.
Thief layering strategy aligns with volatility.
Always respect SL & manage risk 🔐.
🔗 Related Pairs to Watch
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase)
NASDAQ:RIOT (Riot Platforms)
NASDAQ:MARA (Marathon Digital)
SP:SPX / NASDAQ:NDX (macro impact on tech/crypto plays)
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#MSTR #MicroStrategy #Stocks #SwingTrade #Scalping #BearishSetup #CryptoStocks #LayeredStrategy #ThiefPlan #BitcoinCorrelation #TradingViewIdea
NAS100 Analysis: Trend, VWAP, Three-Drive Pattern, and Fibonacci📹 In this video, we take a detailed look at the NASDAQ/NAS100, which is currently in a strong bullish trend 📈. While the momentum is impressive, price may now be overextended, so caution is important ⚠️.
🔎 I share how I incorporate the VWAP, three-drive patterns, and the Fibonacci retracement tool to help plan high-probability trades 🎯.
📊 We also cover trend analysis, price action, and market structure, giving you a full breakdown of how these indicators work together to identify potential setups 🚀.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk.
META Platforms — Can Bulls Escape With $800 Loot?📈 META Money Heist: Bullish Thief Swing/Day Trade Plan! 💰🔥
Date: 08 September 2025
Asset: META Platforms, Inc.
Trading Style: Money Heist Plan with Thief Strategy (Swing/Day Trade) 🦹♂️
Plan: Bullish (Pullback in the LSMA Moving Average) – Bulls charging for upside momentum! 🚀
🎯 Entry: Any Price Level – Thief Using Layer Strategy
Deploy multiple limit orders (layering style entries) at $730.00, $740.00, $750.00 (scale up layers based on your preference).
Be a stealthy trader, sniping entries during pullbacks for max profits! 🕵️♂️
🛑 Stop Loss: Thief SL at $710.00
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), adjust your SL based on your strategy and risk tolerance. Protect your loot! 🛡️
Please adapt your SL to your own strategy, risk appetite, and style — take profits when it makes sense for you.
🎯 Target: Resistance + Overbought Zone + Trap Ahead
Escape with your stolen profits before the trap! Aim for $800.00 target. 🏃♂️💨
📝 Note: Dear Thief OG's
I’m not dictating your TP – it’s your heist! Take profits at your own risk and make the market your playground. 💸
💡 Why This Plan? Thief Strategy + Market Edge
The Thief Plan is a cunning, layered approach to "steal" profits from market pullbacks, aligning with META’s bullish technicals (near 52-week highs, above 200-day SMA). By stacking limit orders, you capitalize on dips in the LSMA moving average, riding the bulls’ strength with precision. Backed by strong fundamentals, macro trends, and greedy sentiment, this setup is primed for a high-reward heist! 🤑
📊 META Stock Sentiment & Market Outlook (08 Sept 2025)
🔢 Real-Time Data Overview
📈 Day Change: +0.51% (↑ $3.80)
📏 52-Week Range: $479.80 - $796.25
💰 Market Cap: $1.89T 🏆
😊 Investor Sentiment Outlook
Retail & Institutional Mood
🟢 Consensus Sentiment: Bullish (Greed Phase)
Analysts’ Price Target Avg: $822.41 (9.30% upside).
42/47 analysts rate META as "Buy" 🟢.
Institutions love AI-driven ad growth + strong cash flow. 💪
Fear & Greed Index
⚖️ Stock Market Sentiment Score: 53/100 (Neutral to Greed)
Driven by market momentum, options activity, and low volatility.
🔄 Crypto Sentiment: Neutral (53/100).
📉 Fundamental & Macro Score Points
Fundamental Strength ✅
💸 Valuation:
P/E Ratio: 27.32 (below peers’ avg 35.47).
Free Cash Flow: $57.63B (projected to hit $198.64B by 2035).
Profit Margin: 39.99% (industry leader).
🚀 Growth Catalysts:
AI boosting ad engagement.
Reality Labs innovation (long-term bet).
⚠️ Risks:
Regulatory scrutiny (antitrust/data privacy) 🚨.
High reliance on ad revenue (98% of total).
Macroeconomic Factors 🌍
📅 Upcoming Events:
CPI Inflation Report (11 Sept).
Fed Meeting (16-17 Sept) 🏦.
📊 Market Volatility: VIX stable (low fear).
🐂 Overall Market Outlook: BULLISH (LONG)
⏳ Short-Term: ✅
Price near 52-week high + above 200-day SMA.
Target upside: $900+ (Bank of America, DBS Bank).
📅 Long-Term: ✅
AI monetization + metaverse potential.
Undervalued by 29% (DCF model).
🎯 Key Takeaways
😊 Sentiment: Greed-driven optimism (institutional + retail).
💰 Fundamentals: Strong cash flow + EPS growth ($27.54).
🌍 Macro: Monitor CPI/Fed for volatility triggers.
⚠️ Risk: Regulatory risks offset by growth bets.
✅ Verdict: Bullish alignment across sentiment, fundamentals, and technicals.
📡 Related Pairs to Watch (in USD)
NASDAQ:AAPL
NASDAQ:GOOGL
NASDAQ:MSFT
NASDAQ:AMZN
NASDAQ:NVDA
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#META #MoneyHeistTrade #BullishSetup #ThiefStrategy #SwingTrading #DayTrading #AIStocks #TechStocks #TradingView #StockMarket #FearAndGreed #BullMarket
NASDAQ NAS100 Analysis: Three-Drive Pattern, VWAP & Trade Plan📊 The NASDAQ 100 has been riding a strong bullish trend, pushing higher with relentless momentum. On the daily timeframe, price now looks heavily overextended 📈.
🔎 Zooming into the 4-hour chart, the overextension is even more apparent. In trending markets, we often observe a three-drive pattern (sometimes a fourth) before an aggressive correction occurs.
⚡ I’m keeping an eye out for a sharp pullback. If price finds support and confirms with a bullish break of market structure, this could present a high-probability long entry setup 🚀.
📹 In the video, I also dive into how I use the VWAP and Fibonacci retracement tools. Both are powerful indicators that provide valuable insight and a trading edge 🔧.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk.
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) Weekly Chart 2025 Chart Context
This weekly timeframe analysis of the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) forms a key pillar in our 2025 macro analysis series. Following the breakout structure seen in TOTAL, TOTAL2, BTC.D, and US10Y, this chart utilizes 2 Fibonacci tools (1 trend-based extensions and 1 retracement) to project potential corrective and expansion scenarios.
Fibonacci Tools Used:
Fibonacci Retracement : Applies to the recent smaller swing to determine micro retracement zones and cluster supports.
0=20674 and 100=10504
Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension: Drawn using a three-leg structure (point A= 3993 to B=16724 to C10504) to forecast upside targets beyond ATH.
All take-profit (TP) levels: TP1 (~23,400), TP2 (~26,700), and TP3 (~30,344.49)—are located at confluence zones where Fibonacci levels from different tools align, reinforcing their validity and strength.
There is a 4TP above all the Visible TPs
Key price references:
0% retracement: ~20,674.71
Next Resistance ~23,400 (confluence of extensions and psychological resistance)
Projected TPs:
1TP=~23,400,
2TP=~26,700,
3TP=~30,344.49,
4TP=44000
Support/Resistance:
Red zone: ~16,700–18,300 (historical S/R and correction target and Fib Confluences)
Resistance zone: ~23,000–23,400 ,
22000(ATH area)
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Retracement from ~20674 to ~15732 marks the initial corrective range.
Trend-Based Extensions forecast:
TP1 (~23,400): First breakout resistance
TP2 (~26,700): Medium-term expansion zone
TP3 (~30,344): Long-term target if macro tailwinds persist
Scenario Pathways:
Bullish Continuation: Breaks above ATH to reach TP2/TP3
Healthy Correction: Pullback to ~20,600 or deeper ~18,300 before resumption
Deep Correction: Revisits ~16,700 zone if macro environment deteriorates
Fundamental Context:
Tech Stocks & Economic Sentiment: NDX is often the first to move during liquidity expansions. Its performance signals risk-on behavior across global equity markets.
Rate Cuts in 2025: With anticipated Fed rate cuts, tech stocks are primed for inflows. Forward earnings valuations rise, justifying extended upside in high-beta tech.
AI Boom & Earnings Growth: Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward AI, cloud, and semiconductors—sectors expected to lead earnings surprises.
NDX Influence on Gold and Crypto
When NDX rallies:
Crypto: Risk appetite improves. Capital rotation flows into altcoins and layer-1 assets.
Bitcoin: Often sees parallel inflows, especially during strong tech rallies (e.g., 2020).
TOTAL & TOTAL3: Begin breakout patterns if NDX continues to surge.
Gold: May stall or correct as investors favor risk assets. However, gold still holds due to macro hedging and real yield pressures.
When NDX corrects:
Crypto: Volatility spikes. Altcoins bleed faster.
Bitcoin: Short-term dip but may decouple if viewed as digital gold.
Gold: Benefits from flight-to-safety behavior.
US10Y: Often reacts inversely to NDX moves—used for confirmation.
Search Highlights (2024–2025):
Institutions view NDX correction as signal to rotate into commodities (incl. gold).
Cross-market correlations show NDX peaks often precede crypto mini-rallies.
De-risking from NDX often triggers gold strength, especially in geopolitical or inflationary backdrops.
Bias & Strategy Implication
Primary Bias: Bullish
Expecting upside continuation to 26,700–30,000 zone
Multiple correction opportunities are present even during rally
Strategic Actions:
Monitor for correction to yellow/red zones for accumulation
Use NDX behavior as leading macro signal for crypto rotations
Watch resistance at 23,400 closely; breakout confirms trend extension
Time Horizon
Short-Term (1–2 months): Watch for breakout or correction to ~20,600–18,300
Mid-Term (3–6 months): Probable test of ~26,700
Long-Term (6–12 months): Potential expansion to ~30,344.49
INTEL Heist Playbook: Buy the Dips, Escape Before the Sirens🔓💻 INTEL CORPORATION "Chip Heist" Stock Raid 💻🔓
🎯 Plan: Bullish Robbery | Targeting $30.00 | Stop Loss: $21.00
💰 Layered Limit Entries | Silicon Valley Loot | Calculated Takedown
🚨⚠️ Attention TRADERS, Tech Pirates & Market Mercenaries! ⚠️🚨
The INTC data vault is cracked, and the Thief Trader squad is executing a multi-layer LIMIT ENTRY HEIST – stacking shares like we're loading the getaway van. 🚐💾⚡
👀 We ain't chasing price – we're ambushing it with precision. Every discount? A planned acquisition.
💥 ENTRY: Any Price Level is a Gift 💥
"Bullish on Silicon" – we're collecting shares on any dip into value town!
Deploy buy limits at key psychological support layers: $25.00, $24.00, $23.00 (Add more layers based on your own capital).
Thief-style: We don't buy the hype; we steal the undervalued chips.
🛑 STOP LOSS: This is a Thief SL @ $21.00 🔐
Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's), this is set at the breakdown panic zone – where the weak hands get shaken out.
Adjust your final SL based on your own risk appetite and strategy. Size wisely.
🎯 TARGET: $30.00 💸
The police barricade is there, so kindly escape with your stolen money before arrival.
We're targeting the next major resistance vault. Take profits and live to trade another day.
🧠 Swing Traders? Load the boat. Day Traders? Snatch the quick flips. Investors? Stack and hold. 💵☕
Use a trailing stop loss to protect your capital as the trend accelerates.
🕵️♂️ THIEF TRADER INSIGHTS:
📊 Backed by tech sector momentum, oversold bounces, and order block analysis.
🗞️ Earnings? Chip news? = increased volatility = adjust your layers accordingly.
⚠️ HEIST PROTOCOL:
✅ Avoid over-leveraging – this is a layering strategy, not a casino bet. 📉
✅ Use risk-adjusted position sizing on every limit order.
✅ Discipline is key. The market will deliver the discounts; you just need to be patient.
❤️🔥 Hit that 💥 LIKE & FOLLOW 💥 if you're riding with the Thief Squad!
Support the strategy. Respect the plan. Stack your gains like a true Market Outlaw.
🔔 Follow for the next HEIST. Big bags only. 💼🚀📈
“The market is a river of money—flowing from the impatient to the patient.” – Thief Trader
#INTC #Intel #StocksToWatch #TradingPlan #SwingTrading #StockMarket #Investing #LayeredEntries #ThiefTrader #ChipHeist
Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Index Hits All-Time HighNasdaq 100 Analysis: Index Hits All-Time High
As the chart shows, today the Nasdaq 100 index has, for the first time in history, climbed above the 24,500 level.
According to media reports, bullish sentiment was driven by the long-awaited Fed decision to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025.
Although the Fed also indicated it would remain cautious about further cuts, the easing acted as a bullish catalyst for the entire stock market – European equities also advanced today, with technology companies leading the way.
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100
When looking at the Nasdaq 100 index within the context of the September rally (highlighted by the blue channel), we note the following:
→ In mid-September, price action reflected market optimism, as the index traded in the upper half of the channel – with resistance at the upper boundary (R) and support at line S.
→ Yesterday’s volatility spike produced a similar move (marked with an arrow) to the one we highlighted in today’s earlier gold analysis, namely a sharp reversal from the lower boundary of the channel (essentially a bullish engulfing pattern, albeit less clear due to volatility and the chosen timeframe).
Following the reversal from the lower boundary, which unfolded aggressively (a sign of bullish conviction), the price advanced steadily, breaking through key levels:
→ the midline of the blue channel;
→ the R2 resistance line shown in red;
→ the former all-time high at 24,165.
Moreover, the index’s behaviour around 24,300 demonstrated the persistence of buyers – the price moved above a cluster of local resistances and then extended its rally.
Bearish view:
→ bullish momentum has pushed the RSI indicator into overbought zone;
→ when attempting to break above the psychological 24,500 level, the price failed to hold, suggesting a false bullish breakout.
Given the above, we could assume that optimism prevails in the market, supported by the Fed’s decision:
→ on the one hand, further gains towards the upper boundary of the blue channel may take place;
→ on the other hand, the market may be overheated and vulnerable to a correction (for instance, back towards the blue midline).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
QQQ : Stay heavy on positionsQQQ : Stay heavy on positions (QLD, TQQQ)
- Market slowly shifting from sidelines to risk-on.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
NASDAQ 100: A Tipping Point on the 4H ChartKey Takeaway
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) is at a critical juncture, hovering at a potential inflection point around the 24,000 level. A clear breakout above or breakdown below this psychological and technical area will likely dictate the next major move for the index, presenting distinct opportunities for both bulls and bears.
Macro View
NASDAQ 100 has been in a strong rising trend channel for the medium to long term, indicating persistent investor optimism. The overall technical outlook remains positive. However, recent price action on the 4hour chart suggests a period of indecision, with the index consolidating just below its recent highs. This consolidation, combined with the emergence of a potential head and shoulders pattern, signals that a significant move is imminent.
Bearish Outlook: A Breakdown Scenario
A breakdown below the key support level at 23,800 would be a significant bearish signal. This level is crucial as it marks the lower boundary of the current consolidation zone.
• Target 1: 23,700 A move below the first key support could quickly see the index test the 23,700 level, which has acted as a previous point of interest.
• Target 2: 23,450 A break of the 23,700 support would confirm a deeper correction, with the next major target being 23,450. This level coincides with a significant volume node and previous support, making it a strong magnet for price.
Risk Management: A stoploss should be placed just above the resistance to mitigate risk in a false breakdown.
Bullish Outlook: A Breakout Scenario
The bullish case is contingent on the index successfully holding the 24,000 psychological level and breaking above the key resistance at 24,208.5.
• Target 1: 24,463 A confirmed breakout would likely propel the index toward the upper boundary of the rising channel, with a primary target of 24,463. This level represents a key extension of the current trend.
• Target 2: 24,600 A decisive move beyond 24,463 would suggest a continuation of the bullish momentum, with a secondary target at 24,600. This level aligns with a major extension and could see the index set new all-time highs.
Risk Management: A stop loss should be placed just below the support to protect against a trend reversal.
Conclusion
NASDAQ 100 is at a pivotal moment. Traders should watch for a clear break in either direction before entering a position. The 24,000 level is a critical pivot, and the ensuing price action will provide a clear roadmap for the market's next move.
NAS100 Trend Analysis: From Higher Highs to a Potential Shift📊 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Analysis 📊
Someone recently asked me to cover the NAS100 🤔 as price action can look a little confusing right now. On the 4H chart ⏰, we’ve been trending strongly 🟢📈 throughout the week. However, as we head into the end of the week 📅, things are starting to shift.
Zooming into the 30M timeframe 🔍, price action is showing early signs of weakness ⚠️. We’ve had a high, then a higher high ⬆️, and now a lower high 🔽 — instead of a continuation of higher highs.
In the video, we take a deep dive 🎥 into market structure 🏗️, price action 💡, and the trend 📊, highlighting what to watch out for as institutions and big players wind up or unwind positions 💼 into the week’s close.
💬 Your thoughts and comments are welcome!
⚠️ This is educational only and not financial advice. 📚
QQQ : Stay heavy on positions (QLD, TQQQ)QQQ : Stay heavy on positions
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
NASDAQ NAS100 at a Crossroads: Riding Nvidias Surge with CautionThe immediate reaction to Nvidia's stellar earnings has been decidedly bullish, propelling the NASDAQ higher. We saw a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event where the "news" was so powerful it triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) rally with a healthy correction on Friday.
In the next one to two weeks, the near-term bias is bullish, but with extreme caution. The market has received the fundamental "all-clear" it was waiting for from its most important company. However, the index is now technically overextended and sentiment is euphoric, making it vulnerable to a short-term pullback or consolidation. The primary trend, however, remains bullish IMO.
1. The Catalyst: Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia didn't just beat expectations; it shattered them and raised future guidance, validating the entire AI investment thesis.
Revenue & EPS: Significant beats on both the top and bottom lines.
Guidance: Q2 revenue guidance of ~$28B was vastly higher than analyst estimates of ~$26.6B, demonstrating unprecedented demand for its Blackwell and Hopper architecture chips.
Data Center: Revenue of $22.6B, up 427% year-over-year, is the core of the story. This shows that AI infrastructure spending is not slowing; it's accelerating.
Stock Split: The announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split adds a psychological boost for retail investors, improving accessibility and reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Analyst Interpretation: This wasn't just a quarterly report; it was a fundamental confirmation that the AI revolution has tangible, massive earnings power. It alleviated fears that the AI trade was a bubble. For the NASDAQ, which is market-cap weighted and heavily influenced by NVDA, this was rocket fuel.
2. Technical Analysis (One-Day Timeframe Post-Earnings)
Price Action: The NASDAQ gapped up powerfully at the open, breaking cleanly above its previous consolidation range. This was a strong bullish signal.
Volume: The rally was accompanied by massive volume, confirming broad institutional participation. This wasn't a low-volume grind; it was a conviction move.
3. Macro & Fundamental Backdrop
Interest Rates: The market is currently pricing in a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed. However, recent economic data (PMIs, jobless claims) has shown slight signs of softening, which keeps hopes alive for a potential rate cut later in the year. A stable, non-accelerating rate environment is acceptable for tech stocks, especially those like Nvidia with explosive earnings growth that outweighs rate concerns.
Geopolitics: While always a risk (U.S.-China tensions, elections), the market has largely shrugged off these concerns for now, choosing to focus on the stellar corporate fundamentals.
Market Breadth: A key watch-out. The rally has been narrow, led primarily by the "Magnificent 7" (now perhaps the "Fab 1" - Nvidia). For the rally to be sustainable, we need to see broader participation from other sectors and smaller-cap stocks within the NASDAQ.
4. Likely Outcome for the Next 1-2 Weeks: Bullish with a Caveat
Bullish Scenario (60% Probability):
The momentum from Nvidia is likely to carry the NASDAQ higher in the very near term. We could see a continued "melt-up" towards 17,400-17,500 as underinvested funds are forced to chase performance and add equity exposure. Any dip will likely be shallow and bought aggressively, with the 17,000 level holding firm.
Consolidation/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability):
This is the most likely healthy outcome. After such a massive, emotion-driven surge, the market is likely to need a period of digestion. We could see the NASDAQ chop sideways for a week or two to work off the overbought conditions. This would reset the momentum indicators and allow the market to build a new base for the next leg higher. This is not a bearish signal; it is a strengthening signal.
Bearish Reversal Scenario (5% Probability):
A sharp reversal below the 17,000 support level and a fill of the earnings gap (~16,900) would be a significant warning. This would likely require a new, negative macro catalyst (e.g., unexpectedly hot inflation data, a major geopolitical escalation) that forcefully changes the interest rate narrative.
Trading & Investment Implication
For Bulls / Existing Longs: Hold positions. Consider taking partial profits on extreme strength, but avoid selling your entire position. The trend is your friend. Use any pullback to the 17,000 support as a potential buying opportunity.
For New Entrants: Chasing the green spike is high-risk. Be patient. Wait for the inevitable pullback or period of consolidation to establish a position. The risk/reward is poor on the day after a massive gap up.
For Bears: Fighting this tape is exceptionally dangerous. The fundamental news from NVDA is a game-changer for the index. Shorting based solely on overbought conditions is a quick path to losses.
Final Analyst Call: The next week is likely bullish with high volatility, potentially extending gains. However, the following week is highly susceptible to a consolidation or pullback as the initial euphoria settles. The overall trajectory for the next two weeks is cautiously bullish, with the understanding that a 2-4% pullback is a normal and healthy part of a strong uptrend.
The burden of proof is now on the bears to prove they can wrestle control back from a market that just received the best possible news from its most important constituent.
Not financial advice, this is just my opinion.
Nasdaq - Preparing for another correction!🚔Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is starting to look weak:
🔎Analysis summary:
Over the course of the past couple of months, we witnessed an incredible rally on the Nasdaq. Following this previous price action, it is quite likely that we will soon see another correction. This could start with the current retest of the channel resistance trendline.
📝Levels to watch:
$23.000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
QQQ : Stay heavy on positionsQQQ : Stay heavy on positions (QLD, TQQQ)
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
SPX & NDX , Stay heavy on positionsSPX & NDX , Stay heavy on positions (2x leverage)
Currently in a short-term bounce signal zone. Maintaining the same outlook as before.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
QQQ : Stay heavy on positions.Currently in a short-term bounce signal zone. Maintaining the same outlook as before.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.






















