NETFLIX 23-year pattern started a correction. Could be massive.A month ago (October 14, see chart below) we published the following chart on Netflix (NFLX) calling for a strong correction, but the immediate split has distorted the price:
We thought it would be a good time to publish it again with the current price action and with the addition of its 23-year Channel Up, so that people can have a much better understanding of the multi-year dynamics involved.
As you can see, the price has been rejected 4 months ago on the 7-year Internal Higher Highs trend-line that started on June 2018. Both previous rejections on that trend-line hit at least the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), the 2022 one even broke below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and almost touched the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
Both those rejections, as well as the current one, had another two things in common. A 1M MACD Bearish Cross and a 1M RSI bearish reversal from overbought (>70.00) territory. Those tops are fairly accurately displayed by the use of the time cycles. Even from the very start of this 23-year Channel Up.
As a result, this model suggests that the stock has clearly topped and is entering a Bear Cycle or at least a correction to the 1W MA100. That is why our first Target is at $88.00. If the market closes a 1M candle below the 1W MA100, as in January 2022, September 2011, August 2004 (all same Cycle Top conditions as described above), we even expect a deeper correction towards the bottom of the 23-year Channel Up. In that case our Target will be $58.00, potentially making contact with the 1M MA100.
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NFLX
Netflix (NFLX) - Elliott Wave Map to $25K📘 Netflix (NFLX) – The Final Act of Supercycle Wave III, Setting the Stage for Wave V to $25,000+
Symbol: NASDAQ:NFLX
Timeframe: Monthly
Published: October 2025
Current Price: ~$1,120
Framework: Elliott Wave | Fibonacci Extensions | Price Action | Smart Money Concepts (SMC) | Fundamentals
🔍 Structural Overview – Supercycle Journey
Netflix has been moving through a multi-decade Elliott Wave supercycle that began in the early 2000s. This structural roadmap is now approaching the final phase of Wave III, before setting up for a corrective Wave IV and ultimately a euphoric Wave V.
Supercycle Wave I completed in January 2004 — a powerful impulse that marked Netflix’s transition into a mainstream tech-growth story.
Supercycle Wave II followed, completing in 2008 with a healthy 50% retracement. This wave set the long-term demand foundation and concluded right as the global financial crisis unfolded.
We are now in Supercycle Wave III, which began in 2008 and is currently in its final macro wave — the most dynamic phase of the entire structure.
⚙️ Breakdown of Supercycle Wave III (2008–2026 est.)
Wave III itself subdivides into five clear macro waves, each respecting Fibonacci and structural principles:
Macro Wave 1 ran from the 2008 bottom into mid-2011, kickstarting the secular bull trend.
Macro Wave 2 ended in 2012 with a textbook 0.618 Fibonacci retracement , a classic sign of wave-based correction.
Macro Wave 3 , the most explosive move of the cycle, lasted until 2018 and terminated near a 2.618 Fibonacci extension — a key confluence area and institutional distribution point.
Macro Wave 4 then corrected from 2018 to 2022. However, this retracement was shallow, bouncing from the 0.236 level — preserving long-term bullish market structure and confirming continued institutional control.
We are currently in Macro Wave 5 of Supercycle III . This leg is itself subdividing into five micro waves. Micro waves 1, 2, and 3 have already completed. Micro Wave 4 is now unfolding and is expected to bottom inside the Golden Pocket — the critical Fibonacci zone between approximately $771 and $548 .
Once Micro Wave 4 completes, Micro Wave 5 will initiate. This final thrust is expected to target the region near $7,447 — the 2.618 extension from prior waves. This level aligns with structural channel tops and institutional profit zones. It would also mark the formal completion of Supercycle Wave III .
🧭 What Comes Next: Supercycle Wave IV and V
After Wave III completes at the ~$7,44 7 area, a significant correction is expected.
Supercycle Wave IV will be the most complex corrective structure since 2008 — possibly multi-year, combining flat, zig-zag, or triangle formations. This wave will likely retrace a large portion of Wave III and reset sentiment across the broader market.
But this correction is not the end — it’s the setup.
Supercycle Wave V will emerge from the Wave IV base and drive Netflix into its ultimate secular top . Based on the Fibonacci 4.618 extension from the base of the cycle, Wave V is projected to reach the $24,774 to $25,332 range.
This would be the euphoric blow-off move where fundamentals, monetary policy, and sentiment combine to form a parabolic top — consistent with historical market cycle conclusions.
📐 Fibonacci Confluence Zones
Each major wave has respected key Fibonacci ratios . Wave II retraced to 0.50, Wave III extended to 2.618, and Wave IV retraced to 0.236. Current projections place Wave V near the 4.618 extension level — a historically significant threshold for secular tops.
The current Micro Wave 4 pullback is unfolding into the Golden Pocket zone — the 0.618–0.65 retracement range — which has repeatedly served as the institutional reaccumulation zone across prior waves.
🧠 Smart Money Behavior
Smart Money Concepts further validate this wave count:
In 2018 , we saw classic signs of institutional distribution at the top of Macro Wave 3 — including high-volume price exhaustion, deviation from trend, and liquidity sweeps.
Between 2018 and 2022, accumulation returned during Wave 4, as institutional players re-entered at discounted levels and retested key demand blocks .
The 2022 breakout into Macro Wave 5 has been efficient, clean, and impulsive — with minimal resistance and wide-range bullish candles, signaling continued institutional participation.
The current Wave 4 micro correction may again serve as a liquidity grab — offering another accumulation window before the final markup toward the $7,447 zone.
🔍 Netflix Fundamentals – Fueling the Cycle
Netflix's fundamentals are now structurally aligned with the technical setup:
Diversified Monetization:
The shift from pure subscription to a multi-layered model (ad-supported tiers, gaming, IP licensing, live events) is broadening both revenues and engagement.
Ad-Supported Growth:
Netflix’s advertising business is scaling rapidly, offering higher ARPU and access to price-sensitive users — a major tailwind for Wave V.
Global Expansion:
With strong localization strategies, Netflix continues to dominate key international markets, boosting user stickiness and content ROI.
Strong Financials:
Consistent free cash flow, improving margins, and disciplined content spend are creating a sustainable growth engine.
These dynamics are not just supporting price — they are helping to drive the type of institutional confidence needed for Wave V to materialize.
🎯 Strategic Levels and Outlook
Watch the Golden Pocket between $771–$548 — this is the high-probability completion zone for Micro Wave 4.
Once Micro Wave 5 begins, price is expected to rally toward $7,447 — the projected top of Supercycle Wave III.
After a broad correction during Wave IV, the final Wave V is projected to target $24,774 to $25,332 — where the entire super-cycle would culminate.
🔚 Final Word
Netflix is moving through the final stages of a 20-year Supercycle Wave III — one of the strongest impulsive phases in equity history. The micro pullback underway now is not a sign of weakness, but a preparation for the final push.
Wave IV will offer the last major reset before a euphoric Wave V redefines valuations. If the fundamental narrative continues to align, the $25K target is not speculative — it’s structural.
📘 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and risk management.
#NFLX #Netflix #NASDAQ #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #WaveTheory #Fibonacci #Supercycle #PriceAction #LongTermInvestment
💬 Respected traders and analysts!
Your insights matter. Share your views, confirmations, or constructive criticism in the comments below. Let’s build a high-quality discussion around Netflix’s structural evolution and long-term investment context.
— Team FIBCOS
NFLX CRACK!!Classic breakdown move from a rising F flag!
Massive Head and shoulders formed, that head test followed through, taking out stops, and now failing off the top of the channel.
Screaming CAUTION to the bulls!
Nice simple short setup for bears.
Click boost, follow, and subscribe. Let's get to 5,000 followers. ))
NVDA 5 trln USD market cap up next? Key fundamentals and upside.Is $5T reasonable for NVDA?
• Mechanically, yes: The market only needs ~10% near-term appreciation from today’s levels to print $5T. That’s within one strong quarter or a guidance beat.
• Fundamentally, the math works if (a) FY26–27 revenue tracks the guide/Street trajectory (TTM already $165B with Q3 guide $54B), (b) non-GAAP GMs hover low-to-mid-70s, and (c) opex discipline holds. Under those, forward EPS path supports ~35× at $5T, a premium but not outlandish for a category-defining compute platform.
• Free-cash optionality: With ~$48B net cash and massive FCF, NVDA can keep funding buybacks (already $60B fresh authorization) and capacity, smoothing cycles.
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• Stock price at $5T market cap: ≈ $205.8 per share (on ~24.3B shares).
• Gain needed from $186.6: +$19.2 (~+10.3%).
The quick math (market cap ⇒ price)
• Shares outstanding (basic): ~24.3 B (as of Aug 22, 2025, per 10-Q).
• Stock @ $5T market cap: $5,000,000,000,000 ÷ 24.3B ≈ $205.8/share.
• From today’s price $186.6: needs +$19.2 or ~+10.3%.
That also implies P/E (TTM) at $5T of roughly ~56× (using TTM EPS ~3.68). Today’s trailing P/E is ~50–53× depending on feed.
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Core fundamentals snapshot 🧩
Latest quarter (Q2 FY26, reported Aug 27, 2025)
• Revenue: $46.7B (+56% y/y; +6% q/q).
• Data Center revenue: $41.1B (+56% y/y).
• GAAP gross margin: 72.4%; non-GAAP 72.7%; Q3 guide ~73.3–73.5%.
• GAAP EPS: $1.08 (non-GAAP: $1.05; excl. $180M inventory release: $1.04).
TTM scale & profitability
• Revenue (TTM): ~$165.2B.
• Net income (TTM): ~$86.6B.
• Diluted EPS (TTM): ~$3.5–3.7.
• Cash & marketable securities: $56.8B; debt: ~$8.5–10.6B ⇒ net cash ≈ $48B.
Capital returns
• $24.3B returned in 1H FY26; new $60B buyback authorization (no expiration). Remaining buyback capacity ~$71B as of Aug 26.
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Valuation read (today vs. $5T)
Using widely watched metrics:
• P/E (TTM): ~50–53× today; at $5T it rises to ~56× (assuming flat TTM EPS).
• Forward P/E: Street FY27 EPS ≈ $5.91 → ~31–33× today; ~35× at $5T — still below many AI hyper-growth narratives that trade at 40–50× forward when growth visibility is high.
• EV/EBITDA (TTM): EV ≈ market cap – net cash. Today EV ~$4.45T; EBITDA TTM ≈ $98–103B ⇒ EV/EBITDA ~43–45×; at $5T EV/EBITDA drifts to ~48–50×.
• P/S (TTM): ~27× today (at $4.5T) and ~30× at $5T on $165.2B TTM revenue.
• FCF yield: TTM FCF range $60.9–72.0B ⇒ ~1.35–1.60% today; ~1.22–1.44% at $5T.
Takeaway: $5T doesn’t require a heroic repricing — it’s ~10% above spot and implies ~35× forward earnings if consensus holds. That’s rich vs. the S&P (~22.5× forward) but arguably reasonable given NVDA’s growth, margins, and quasi-platform status in AI compute.
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What must be true to justify $5T (and beyond) ✅
1. AI capex “supercycle” persists/expands. Citi now models $490B hyperscaler AI capex in 2026 (up from $420B) and trillions through 2029–30. A sustained 40–50% NVDA wallet share across compute+networking underwrites revenue momentum and margin sustainment.
2. Annual product cadence holds. Blackwell today → Rubin in 2026 with higher power & bandwidth, widening the perf gap vs. AMD MI450 — supports pricing power and mix.
3. Margins stay “mid-70s” non-GAAP. Company guides ~73.3–73.5% near term; sustaining 70%+ through transitions offsets any unit price compression.
4. Networking, software & systems scale. NVLink/Spectrum, NVL systems and CUDA/Enterprise subscriptions deepen the moat and smooth cyclicality; attach expands TAM (improves EV/EBITDA vs. pure-GPU lens).
5. China/export workarounds do not derail mix. Q2 had no H20 China sales; guidance and commentary frame this as manageable with non-China demand and limited H20 redirection.
________________________________________
A contrarian check (where the model could break) 🧨
• Power & grid bottlenecks. Even bulls (Citi) note AI buildouts imply tens of GW of incremental power; slippage in datacenter electrification can defer GPU racks, elongating deployments (and revenue recognition).
• Debt-funded AI spend. Rising share of AI DC capex is being levered (Oracle’s $18B bonds; neoclouds borrowing against NVDA GPUs). If credit windows tighten, orders could wobble.
• Customer consolidation & vertical ASICs. Hyperscalers iterating custom silicon could cap NVDA’s mix/price in some workloads; edge inference may fragment.
• China policy volatility. Export rules already forced product pivots; rebounds are uncertain and not fully in NVDA’s control.
• Multiple risk. At ~50× TTM and >40× EV/EBITDA, any growth decel (unit or pricing) can de-rate the multiple faster than earnings make up the gap.
Bottom line of the bear case: If AI capex normalizes faster (say +10–15% CAGR instead of +25–35%), forward EPS still grows, but the stock would likely need multiple compression (toward ~25–30× forward), making $5T less sticky near-term.
________________________________________
Street positioning (latest bullish calls) 📣
• KeyBanc: $250 (Overweight) — Rubin cycle deepens moat → ~+34% implied upside.
• Barclays: $240 (Overweight) — AI infra wave; higher multiple to 35×. ~+29% upside.
• Bank of America: $235 (Buy). ~+26% upside.
• Bernstein: $225 (Outperform). ~+21% upside.
• Citi: $210 (Buy) — reiterates annual cadence & rising AI capex.
• Morgan Stanley: $206–210 (Overweight). ~+11–13% upside; 33× CY25 EPS framework.
• Consensus: Avg 12-mo PT ~$211, ~+13% from here.
________________________________________
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Extra color you can trade on 🎯
• Where bulls may be too conservative:
o Networking/NVLink attach could outgrow GPUs as Blackwell/Rubin systems standardize on NVIDIA fabric, defending blended margins longer.
o Software monetization (CUDA ecosystem, NIMs, enterprise inference toolchains) is still under-modeled in many sell-side DCFs.
• Where bulls may be too aggressive:
o China rebound timing & magnitude.
o Power/real-estate constraints delaying deployments into 2026.
o Credit-driven AI capex — watch for any signs of tightening in private credit / neocloud financing that uses GPUs as collateral.
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Sources: NVIDIA IR & 10-Q; Yahoo Finance stats; StockAnalysis (TTM financials); company Q2 FY26 press release and CFO commentary; recent analyst notes from KeyBanc, Citi, Barclays, BofA, Morgan Stanley; financial media coverage (WSJ/FT).
Netflix (NFLX) | FVG + OTE Entry Loading | Multi-Confluence ICT Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is currently retracing into a high-probability multi-timeframe setup, aligning several ICT confluences that suggest a potential re-entry opportunity within a bullish continuation narrative.
Market Structure:
Price remains bullish overall, with clear higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The recent decline represents a healthy retracement inside a developing higher-timeframe structure.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Alignment:
The current pullback has driven price into an overlapping Monthly and Weekly FVG, an area of institutional interest where price has previously shown strong reactions.
This zone often serves as a re-accumulation region before expansion.
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE):
The FVG aligns directly within the 62%–79% Fibonacci retracement zone, known as the golden OTE zone.
This overlap of structural retracement and imbalance discount makes it a prime setup from a smart money perspective.
Liquidity & Target Zones:
- Discount Range: $944 – $1,033
- Primary Buyside Liquidity (BSL): $1,345
- Extended Target: $1,872 (100% expansion projection)
Each level aligns with liquidity pools and Fibonacci extension targets visible on higher timeframes.
Trade Bias:
Bullish, with focus on accumulation and confirmation within the OTE discount range.
A weekly bullish displacement or rejection candle within this zone would strengthen the case for long continuation plays.
Summary:
NFLX is presenting a multi-timeframe high-probability setup, where a clean retracement into an overlapping Monthly/Weekly FVG and OTE zone creates a strong case for re-entry.
If the discount zone holds, expect expansion toward buyside liquidity and potential continuation into 2026.
Netflix (NFLX) Shares See a Sharp DeclineNetflix (NFLX) Shares See a Sharp Decline
According to recent charts, Netflix (NFLX) shares have traded below $1,100 this week — for the first time since late May. The stock has fallen more than 17% from its July peak, while the S&P 500 index remains close to record highs.
Why Has Netflix (NFLX) Fallen?
The main catalyst for the drop was the company’s earnings report, which showed results well below expectations: actual EPS came in at $5.87 versus a forecast of $6.96 and a previous reading of $7.19.
Despite the success of several new releases, the figures were weighed down by a tax dispute in Brazil, which significantly dampened market sentiment. Nevertheless, the bulls still have reasons for cautious optimism.
Technical Analysis of the NFLX Chart
The NFLX share price remains within a long-term upward channel (marked in blue). It has now approached a key support zone formed by:
→ the lower boundary of the main channel, which previously provided support in April;
→ the lower line of a short-term downward trajectory (marked in red);
→ the psychological level of $1,100.
Bulls are taking encouragement from the fact that:
→ the RSI indicator has entered oversold territory;
→ the price previously moved confidently through the $1,000–$1,100 range, suggesting that strong buying interest may still persist in this area.
From the sellers’ perspective, however, attention should be paid to the large bearish gap formed earlier this week, with its lower edge near $1,100, which could now act as resistance.
Taking all this into account, it seems reasonable to assume that:
→ the current support zone may prevent further declines in NFLX shares;
→ the impact of the Brazilian tax case (reported losses of around $600 million) may already be priced in;
→ bulls could attempt to resume the broader uptrend, potentially turning the red trajectory into a bullish flag pattern.
On the other hand, failure to hold within the blue channel would expose the $1,000 level to another test.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Netflix: Key Support Zone in sightNetflix shares have continued to decline since our last update. We have now provided additional detail on the ongoing turquoise wave 4, which is subdivided into a magenta three-part structure. Within this structure, wave is expected to push price further down into the turquoise Target Zone, between $962.77 and $845.22. The low point of the larger wave 4 is anticipated within this range. Only after reaching this level should wave 5 drive price back above the $1,341 mark. As such, the turquoise Target Zone presents long entry opportunities, which can be protected with a stop set 1% below the lower boundary of the zone. However, if price rises directly above the aforementioned resistance at $1,341, our alternative scenario would be triggered, and we would initially need to prepare for a higher wave alt.3 top (probability: 30%).
Netflix – Trend Reversal and Impulsive Setup#Netflix – Trend Reversal and Impulsive Setup
Current price: $1,215.6
Netflix is showing early signs of a trend reversal after completing a multi-month corrective phase. The structure suggests a shift toward a new impulsive rally within the broader bullish framework.
🧩 Technical Overview
• After a prolonged pullback from the June highs, price found support near $1,130, forming a local base.
• The descending channel was broken to the upside — a signal of potential momentum change.
• Price is now consolidating above the breakout zone, building the foundation for an upward impulse.
📈 Scenario
• The structure resembles the start of a new impulsive leg following the correction.
• As long as the market holds above $1,130, bullish continuation remains the dominant view.
• Stop-loss: below the recent swing low at $1,130.
• Upside targets:
– $1,250–$1,270 – short-term retest of breakout zone
– $1,340–$1,380 – key resistance and mid-cycle confirmation zone
– $1,470–$1,550 – major Fibonacci target range
– $1,670+ – extended bullish objective if momentum accelerates
⚙️ Market Context
• The broader trend remains constructive as long as price stays above the breakout structure.
• Momentum shift coincides with improving sentiment across large-cap techs.
• A sustained move above $1,340 would confirm renewed strength and open the path toward the $1,500 area.
🧭 Summary
Netflix has likely completed its corrective phase and is preparing for a new upside cycle.
Holding above $1,130 keeps the bullish bias intact, while a breakout above $1,340–$1,380 would confirm trend continuation toward $1,470–$1,550 and beyond.
NETFLIX has topped and can pull back to $875.Netflix (NFLX) has formed one of its strongest Sell Signals in the last 15 years. That's the 1M MACD Bearish Cross.
The stock has been trading on a very consistent pattern ever since the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis and during this multi-year span, the best indicator for a Top has been the 1M MACD forming a Bearish Cross.
As you can see, this month marks the 7th such occurrence since June 2011. All previous formations resulted in the price pulling-back to touch at least its 1W MA100 (red trend-line). Only two times the correction has been bigger that was that first Bearish Cross in June 2011 and the most recent December 2021, which almost hit the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), the market's ultimate multi-decade Support.
These Top signals match fairly well the Sine Waves, which as you see form somewhat reliable Cycles. Those confirm that Netflix currently stands on a long-term Top. Even the 1M RSI is similar to the Top patterns suggested by the Sine Waves.
As a result, we expect the stock to start a multi-month technical pull-back, with a fair projection of making contact with its 1W MA100 being $875.00. That's our Target.
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Looking for puts immediately on NFLX! A+!OptionsMastery:
🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
Is Netflix Stock Headed Toward $1,100?Netflix shares are going through a difficult period, as the streaming giant has posted five consecutive losing sessions, with a decline of around 4.5% in recent trading days. For now, the selling bias has become dominant, driven by the viral "Cancel Netflix" campaign circulating on social media, where many users have decided to cancel their subscriptions following a recent controversy involving the company. As long as this negative sentiment fueled by the campaign remains in place, selling pressure is likely to continue playing a key role in the stock’s short-term movements.
Bearish Trend Emerges
Since early July, a series of lower highs has formed, establishing a solid downward trendline. In addition, price oscillations below the 100-period moving average reinforce the outlook for a consistent bearish bias. Unless a significant bullish correction occurs in the near term, selling pressure could continue to dominate, allowing the bearish trend to become more pronounced in the coming sessions.
RSI
The RSI line continues to show downward oscillations below the neutral 50 level, confirming that bearish momentum remains dominant over the past 14 trading sessions. However, the indicator is approaching the oversold zone, marked by the 30 level, and reaching this area could signal a market imbalance, potentially opening a window for short-term corrective rebounds.
MACD
The MACD histogram continues to display negative oscillations below the zero line, indicating that bearish directional strength remains dominant in the short-term moving averages. As the histogram continues to post lower values, selling pressure is expected to remain a key factor in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
1,221 – Major Resistance: Corresponds to the area marked by the 100-period simple moving average. Price action breaking above this level could trigger a relevant bullish bias, putting the current downtrend at risk.
1,155 – Nearby Support: Represents the area of the latest price pullbacks. If price breaks below this level, the bearish trend could extend further in the short term, leading to sustained selling pressure. It may also act as a technical barrier capable of producing temporary bullish corrections.
1,097 – Critical Support: Corresponds to the zone marked by the 200-period simple moving average. A sustained break below this level could activate a more aggressive downtrend, likely defining the stock’s movements over the next few weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
AMD Best Level to BUY/HOLD 300% gains SWING TRADE🔸Hello traders, today let's review recent price chart for AMD.
Well defined swings in progress, expecting further downside before
the tide finally turns for AMD bulls. Currently it's recommended to stay out.
🔸AMD is trailing behind NVDA massively, so eventually AMD will to the
mean reversion trade and start to catch up with NVDA, however currently
pullback/correction mode in progress.
🔸Well defined swings - 160 to 58 65% correction, then 58 to 210 280% gains,
210 to 75 represents 65% correction, 75 to 290 is a 280% pump.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: Bulls wait for correction to complete at/near 75 usd in January 2025 and get ready to BUY/HOLD low, this is a swing trade setup, so will take longer to hit target, patience required. final TP is 290 USD, 280% upside off the expected lows. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NFLX - NetFlix done after the run?🔱 A break of the WL1 could be the technical short signal 🔱
NetFlix had a monster run.
✅ Here’s a grounded fundamental breakdown of risks that could push Netflix downward. None of these are certainties, instead think of them as warning signs, not predictions.
👉 Slowing subscriber growth – growth in mature markets may plateau, and churn could rise if hit shows underperform.
👉 Rising competition and costs – rivals like Disney+ and Amazon force Netflix to spend more on content, squeezing profit margins.
👉 High valuation risk – expectations are lofty, so even a small earnings miss could trigger a sharp sell-off.
✅ Chart analysis
After missing WL2, we’ve got a Hagopian in play, which I’d say still hasn’t been fulfilled. The line was touched by a few ticks, but usually these lines break more decisively.
🔨 If we open and close below WL1, I’m stalking a pullback to it, just to hit the market on the head. If this break really happens, we’ll also have a clean structure for our stop, placed above the last RealSwing high.
🎯 The target is set in stone for me: It's the U-MLH and beyond, down to the Centerline.
Let’s stay focused and keep our cool.
Happy new week!
Netflix Investment Outlook Volume 2Top called July 27th, 2021, months prior. No surprises/remorse here! The idea is linked below.
Moving forward, Netflix's price action will be choppy and downward facing. ABC correction in progress; B wave recovery expected soon. Bottom of the historical channel - end game. Fundamentally, increased competition will continue the downtrend in subscriptions. Conclusion: Bear!
NFLX Technical Outlook: A Head and Shoulders PlayNetflix Technical Outlook
Structure and Pattern Recognition
Netflix has broken down from its ascending channel, confirming a break of structure (BoS) to the downside. Price failed to sustain at prior support, with the current setup resembling a potential head and shoulders pattern. The neckline sits just above $1,160, and further weakness could accelerate downside momentum.
Key Catalysts
Several developments could weigh on Netflix’s price action in the near term:
Tariff Concerns: Reports of the Trump administration exploring tariffs on foreign films present a potential headwind. Given that a significant portion of Netflix’s catalog comes from international productions, such a policy could increase costs or limit content availability.
Catalog Composition: Foreign films and shows have grown to represent a large share of Netflix’s offering, both in terms of content hours and global subscriber engagement. Any disruption could alter growth expectations.
Public Sentiment: Recent viral discussions and trending cancellations, fueled in part by tweets from Elon Musk criticizing Netflix’s content choices, add a sentiment-driven layer of volatility. While short-term reactions can fade, they underscore the platform’s exposure to cultural and political narratives.
These catalysts highlight risks around both fundamentals and perception, and traders should remain neutral when evaluating their potential impact on price direction.
Key Levels and Setups
Immediate resistance sits in the $1,200–$1,220 zone (bearish order block). A clean rejection here keeps sellers in control. On the downside, the first target lies near $1,050–$1,040 (bullish order block), with deeper potential into the $820–$840 range if the head and shoulders structure fully plays out.
Momentum and Volume
Momentum indicators confirm sustained selling pressure, with RSI holding in a bearish range. Volume spikes during breakdowns suggest institutional participation, adding conviction to the bearish structure.
Outlook and Scenarios
Bearish Case: Continuation of the breakdown leads to a retest of $1,050, and if breached, could confirm the larger head and shoulders, targeting $820–$840.
Bullish Case: A sharp reclaim of $1,220 and close back into the prior range would invalidate the bearish setup and shift focus back toward $1,280+.
Conclusion
Netflix sits at a vulnerable point, with technicals and sentiment leaning bearish. Macro catalysts—from trade policy to public perception—could amplify volatility around these levels. Traders should monitor the $1,200–$1,220 zone as the key pivot between recovery and deeper correction.
NFLX 2H Chart – Bullish Breakout with 4.68:1 RRR Trade SetupTicker: NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)
Timeframe: 2-hour
Current Price: $1,210.44
Trend: Price was moving in a downward channel (pink shaded area), but there's a potential breakout forming to the upside.
📉 Pattern Recognition
A falling channel is drawn (marked in pink).
The price appears to have broken out of this falling channel or is testing the breakout.
A bullish reversal is suggested, as there's a highlighted buy zone below the current price.
💡 Trade Setup
Element Value Description
Entry Point $1,184.19 Suggested buy zone
Stop Loss $1,163.47 Risk management level
Target Point $1,281.15 Projected upside target
🟨 Entry Zone
The blue box around $1,184.19 represents a demand zone (possible retracement buy area).
Yellow shaded area = refined zone of interest for buyers.
🟥 Stop Loss Zone
Stop loss below the demand zone, set at $1,163.47 (just below support structure).
Provides cushion against false breakouts.
🟦 Target Zone
Projected target at $1,281.15, aligned with previous resistance or measured move.
Expecting a trend continuation after the breakout.
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR)
Entry: $1,184.19
Stop: $1,163.47
Target: $1,281.15
Risk: $1,184.19 - $1,163.47 = $20.72
Reward: $1,281.15 - $1,184.19 = $96.96
📈 RRR ≈ 4.68:1 — very favorable.
🧠 Conclusion
This chart suggests a bullish breakout trade setup on Netflix.
The trade is designed to capitalize on the breakout from a downward channel.
High risk-to-reward setup.
Wait for price action confirmation in the entry zone before initiating a trade.
Watch for volume and overall market sentiment to confirm the breakout strength.
Netflix: Trading Sideways as Correction Nears Target ZoneNetflix initially dipped slightly before settling into a sideways trading pattern. There remains a 33% probability that a new high for turquoise wave alt.3 could develop above resistance at $1,341. However, our primary outlook suggests that turquoise wave 4 will carve out its low in the turquoise Target Zone between $961.52 and $843.96, at which point it should hand off to wave 5—which should drive gains above the $1,341 level.
K-Pop: Demon Hunters to Drive Netflix Higher?The recent success of global hits like K-Pop: Demon Hunters and strong fundamentals give the stock a tailwind, and technically, the corrective and consolidative phase appears to be maturing.
Netflix is consolidating between $1198 and $1243, after rebounding from the $1,144 support level, which has proven to be a strong floor following the sharp correction from the $1341 high.
Price is currently trading under the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last down leg. The structure suggests that the market is in a decision phase.
The RSI on the 4H timeframe is stabilizing in mid-range territory.
If the price continues to hold above $1198, this keeps the bias bullish.
A breakout above $1243 would likely trigger a move and possible retest of the prior high near $1341.
In my view, the most probable scenario is a move higher as long as the support holds.
My projection is for a period of consolidation, followed by a breakout toward $1340 in the coming weeks, provided $1198 is not broken.
Netflix Options Flash Green – $1170 Target in Sight?
## 🚨 NFLX Options Alert: Quiet Volume, Loud Calls 🚨
**Earnings Loom, Institutions Lean Bullish** 💥
🔹 **Models Align:** 4 out of 5 models flash *Moderate Bullish*
🔹 **RSI**: Daily (35.6) cooling off, Weekly (56.1) still rising
🔹 **Call/Put Ratio**: 1.47 → Bullish positioning building
🔹 **VIX**: At 17.9, IV environment favors options buyers
🔹 **Volume Weakness**: Institution hesitation = key risk
### 📈 TRADE IDEA:
🎯 **NFLX \$1170 Call**
💵 Entry: \$11.80 | 🎯 Target: \$17.70 | 🛑 Stop: \$4.70
📆 Expiry: 2025-08-08 | ⚖️ Confidence: 65%
💡 *Enter at market open. Position size small. Event risk high.*
> “Volume is low, but flow is glowing.”
> Could this be *the* earnings week breakout?
---
### 🏷 Hashtags for Viral Reach:
`#NFLX #OptionsFlow #EarningsTrade #TechStocks #UnusualOptionsActivity #Netflix #TradingSignals #CallOptions #WeeklySetup #TradingViewIdeas`
NFLX RANGEIs NFLX aiming the top of the range (1190-1197)? Currently not breaking down below 1162. It's the end of July and things may be getting hot! For the next play :)
Fed Powell speaking at 2/2:30p today. I think it's expected that his words may move the market. We may just range some more. I will assess how we close.
NFLX WEEKLY OPTIONS TRADE (07/28/2025)**🎬 NFLX WEEKLY OPTIONS TRADE (07/28/2025) 🎬**
**Institutions Are Buying Calls – Should You?**
---
📈 **Momentum Breakdown:**
* **Daily RSI:** Mixed ➡️ Possible short-term weakness
* **Weekly RSI:** Bullish bias intact ✅
🔥 Overall = **Moderate Bullish** trend confirmed on the **weekly timeframe**
📊 **Options Flow:**
* **Call/Put Ratio:** **2.23** 🚨
💼 Strong institutional call flow = **bullish bias** from big money
* **Strike Ideas from Models:**
* \$1260 (Grok/xAI)
* \$1230 (Gemini/Google)
* \$1220 (Meta)
* ✅ **\$1200** (Consensus Strike)
🧨 **Volume Warning:**
* 📉 Institutional participation is **lower than average**
* 🚫 Could signal weak follow-through or fading interest
---
🧠 **AI Model Consensus (Grok / Gemini / Claude / Meta / DeepSeek):**
✅ Call buying favored across the board
✅ Weekly bullish momentum confirmed
⚠️ Daily RSI & low volume = headwinds
📌 Play it smart: momentum’s real, but conviction isn’t maxed
---
💥 **RECOMMENDED TRADE (65% Confidence):**
🎯 **Play:** Buy CALL Option
* **Strike:** \$1200
* **Expiry:** 2025-08-01
* **Entry:** \~\$8.50
* **Profit Target:** \$16.00 → \$17.00
* **Stop Loss:** \$5.10
📆 Entry Timing: Monday market open
📏 Position Size: Risk-managed (2-4% portfolio)
---
⚠️ **RISK CHECKLIST:**
* 🟡 **Volume Fragility:** Institutions not fully loading
* 🟥 **Gamma Risk:** Expiry this week = possible sharp swings
* 🔴 **Daily RSI Divergence:** Short-term weakness still possible
---
📌 **TRADE DETAILS (JSON Format for Automation):**
```json
{
"instrument": "NFLX",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 1200.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-01",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 16.00,
"stop_loss": 5.10,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 8.50,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-01 09:30:00 UTC-04:00"
}
```
---
**TL;DR:**
🟢 Weekly bullish setup with strong options flow
🟡 Daily weakness = proceed with discipline
🎯 \ NASDAQ:NFLX \$1200C for short-term momentum upside
💬 Are you following the institutions or fading the low volume?
\#NFLX #OptionsFlow #AITrading #WeeklySetup #InstitutionalMoney #TechStocks #UnusualOptionsActivity #TradingView #MomentumTrading






















