NasdaqNasdaq continues its bullish rally, after the last attempt to break above this key level failed, 24000 was finally broken. Let's head to 24100
NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
Multi-Asset Market Analysis & Trade IdeasAnalysis Date : September 10, 2025
Trading Analyst : Institutional Intelligence Framework
Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System with Enhanced Volume Profile Analysis
Executive Summary
Current market analysis reveals exceptional institutional opportunities across equity indices with significant commodity sector divergence. The enhanced institutional intelligence framework identifies unprecedented buying dominance in major equity markets while revealing dangerous extensions in traditional safe-haven assets.
Portfolio Allocation Strategy : 75-85% equity allocation with minimal commodity/currency exposure based on institutional positioning intelligence.
Primary Opportunities (70-85% Total Allocation)
1. NASDAQ 100 (NQ) - 25-30% ALLOCATION
Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Institutional Backing
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 26.8:1 buying dominance (6.18M UP vs 230.69K DOWN)
Current Position : 23,963 (+3.4% above Q3 POC 23,186)
Support Structure : Exceptional multi-quarter institutional foundation
Risk Assessment : LOWEST RISK - strongest institutional conviction identified
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (65% probability) :
Entry : /MNQ at current levels or any pullback to 23,500-23,600
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 24,500 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 25,000 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 25,500+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 23,000 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (25% probability) :
Range : 23,200-24,200 consolidation
Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness toward 23,400
Management : Hold core position, trade edges of range
Re-evaluation : Weekly basis for breakout confirmation
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 23,000 (institutional support failure)
Action : Exit all positions immediately
Re-entry : Require fresh institutional accumulation evidence
Risk Control : Maximum 2% loss on allocation
2. S&P 500 (ES) - 25-30% ALLOCATION
Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Support
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 5.21:1 buying dominance (11.3M UP vs 2.17M DOWN)
Current Position : 6,550 (+2.7% above Q3 POC 6,375)
Support Structure : Consistent institutional accumulation across quarters
Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - exceptional institutional backing
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (70% probability) :
Entry : /MES at current levels or pullback to 6,450-6,500
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 6,650 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 6,750 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 6,850+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 6,300 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (20% probability) :
Range : 6,400-6,600 consolidation
Strategy : Accumulate on weakness, trim on strength
Management : Maintain core position size
Monitoring : Weekly institutional level respect
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 6,300 (institutional support violation)
Action : Systematic position reduction
Stop Loss : 6,250 (complete exit level)
Re-entry : Wait for institutional re-engagement signals
3. DOW JONES (YM) - 20-25% ALLOCATION
Classification : HIGH CONVICTION - YTD POC Validation
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 11.5:1 buying dominance (455.32K UP vs 83.17K DOWN)
YTD POC Alignment : Perfect alignment with Q1 POC at 45,150
Current Position : 45,651 (+1.1% above institutional consensus)
Risk Assessment : VERY LOW RISK - optimal positioning
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (75% probability) :
Entry : /MYM at current levels (optimal positioning confirmed)
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 46,200 (close 40% position)
Target 2 : 46,800 (close 30% position)
Target 3 : 47,500+ (trail remaining 30%)
Stop Loss : 44,800 (below YTD/Q1 POC consensus)
Neutral Scenario (20% probability) :
Range : 45,000-46,000 consolidation around institutional consensus
Strategy : Hold core position, add on dips to 45,200
Management : Optimal risk/reward positioning maintained
Advantage : Minimal downside to institutional support
Bearish Scenario (5% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 45,000 (YTD POC violation)
Action : Reduce position by 50%
Ultimate Stop : 44,500 (complete exit)
Assessment : Highly unlikely given institutional validation
Secondary Opportunities (15-20% Total Allocation)
4. WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) - 15-20% ALLOCATION
Classification : SOLID OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Foundation
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 1.94:1 buying dominance (1.38M UP vs 710.76K DOWN)
Current Position : 63.27 (within Q3 institutional accumulation zone)
Support Structure : Massive Q2 institutional accumulation at 57.50
Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - multiple institutional support layers
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (60% probability) :
Entry : /MCL at current levels or pullback to 62.50-63.00
Position Size : Maximum 2% account risk per position
Target 1 : 67.00 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 69.00 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 71.00+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 61.50 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (30% probability) :
Range : 62.00-65.00 consolidation within institutional zone
Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness
Management : Patient accumulation approach
Support : Strong institutional backing provides downside protection
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 61.00 (institutional support failure)
Action : Exit positions systematically
Re-entry : 58.00 area (Q2 POC support)
Risk Management : Tight stops due to support proximity
Defensive Positions (8-12% Total Allocation)
5. NATURAL GAS (NG) - 8-12% ALLOCATION
Classification : MODERATE RISK - Declining Institutional Engagement
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : Mixed activity with reduced institutional participation
Q1 Peak : 10.6:1 buying dominance (697K UP vs 65K DOWN) - historical high
Current Concern : 65% volume decline from Q1 peaks
Risk Assessment : MODERATE - institutional disengagement evident
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (45% probability) :
Entry : Current levels only with tight risk controls
Position Size : Maximum 1.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 3.40 (close 60% position)
Target 2 : 3.60 (close remaining 40%)
Stop Loss : 2.90 (below Q3 POC support)
Neutral Scenario (35% probability) :
Range : 3.00-3.20 consolidation
Strategy : Avoid new positions, monitor for re-engagement
Management : Maintain defensive positioning
Watch : Volume quality for institutional return
Bearish Scenario (20% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 2.90 (Q3 support failure)
Action : Complete position liquidation
Assessment : Institutional abandonment acceleration
Avoidance : No re-entry until fresh accumulation evidence
Risk Management Positions (8-13% Total Allocation)
6. EURO FUTURES (6E) - 5-8% ALLOCATION
Classification : DEFENSIVE ONLY - Dangerous Extension
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
YTD POC Analysis : 1.0525 (aligned with Q1 POC)
Current Position : 1.1769 (+12.9% above institutional consensus)
Extension Risk : DANGEROUS - trading far beyond smart money positioning
Risk Assessment : HIGH RISK - profit-taking territory
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (25% probability) :
Entry : AVOID new long positions
Existing Positions : Systematic profit-taking recommended
Target : 1.1850 maximum (close all positions)
Risk : Overextension beyond institutional support
Neutral Scenario (35% probability) :
Range : 1.1650-1.1800 at dangerous extension levels
Strategy : Range trading only with tight stops
Position Size : Maximum 1% account risk
Management : Defensive positioning required
Bearish Scenario (40% probability) :
Trigger : Any breakdown below 1.1700
Target : Return to institutional consensus (1.0525)
Action : Short opportunities on strength
Strategy : Mean reversion to YTD POC likely
7. GOLD FUTURES (GC) - 3-5% ALLOCATION
Classification : EXTREME CAUTION - Maximum Extension
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Extension Analysis : 12.2% above all institutional positioning
Q2 Peak Activity : 11.5:1 buying dominance at 3,430 levels
Current Position : 2,676 (extremely overextended)
Risk Assessment : MAXIMUM RISK - correction vulnerability
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (15% probability) :
Entry : AVOID all new long positions
Existing : Immediate profit-taking recommended
Risk : Extreme overextension unsustainable
Management : Defensive exit strategy only
Neutral Scenario (25% probability) :
Range : 2,650-2,700 at unsustainable levels
Strategy : No positioning recommended
Assessment : Range trading too risky given extension
Monitoring : Watch for breakdown signals
Bearish Scenario (60% probability) :
Target : 3,400-3,500 (return to institutional zones)
Correction Magnitude : 12-15% decline likely
Strategy : Short opportunities on any strength
Entry : /MGC shorts on rallies above 2,690
Stop : 2,720 (tight risk control)
Target : 3,450 (institutional accumulation zone)
Risk Management Protocols
Position Sizing Framework
Maximum Risk Per Trade : 2% of account value
Maximum Sector Exposure : 6% (energy, metals, currencies)
Portfolio Heat : Maximum 15% total risk across all positions
Cash Reserve : 5-12% for opportunities and margin requirements
Stop Loss Hierarchy
Tactical Stops : 2-3 Renko blocks on execution charts
Strategic Stops : Below/above institutional POC levels
Emergency Stops : Below major quarterly support levels
Time Stops : Exit if no progress within 15 trading days
Profit Taking Protocol
Systematic Approach :
Target 1 : Close 40-50% of position at 2:1 risk/reward
Target 2 : Close 25-30% of position at 3:1 risk/reward
Target 3 : Trail remaining 20-25% with institutional level stops
Correlation Management
Equity Exposure : Maximum 75-85% combined (NQ+ES+YM)
Commodity Exposure : Maximum 25-30% combined (CL+NG)
Currency Exposure : Maximum 10% (6E only)
Safe Haven Exposure : Maximum 5% (GC defensive only)
Market Scenario Planning
Scenario A: Continued Equity Strength (60% probability)
Characteristics : Institutional accumulation continues, economic resilience
Winners : NQ, ES, YM (maximize equity allocation)
Losers : GC, 6E (extension corrections)
Strategy : Aggressive equity positioning, defensive commodity stance
Scenario B: Market Consolidation (25% probability)
Characteristics : Range-bound trading around institutional levels
Winners : YM (optimal positioning), CL (institutional support)
Neutral : NQ, ES (trade ranges)
Strategy : Reduce position sizes, focus on institutional level trading
Scenario C: Risk-Off Environment (15% probability)
Characteristics : Institutional support failure, flight to quality
Winners : Cash, defensive positioning
Losers : All risk assets
Strategy : Emergency protocols, systematic position reduction
Trigger : Break below major institutional support levels
Weekly Monitoring Checklist
Daily Assessment
Institutional POC level respect across all markets
Volume quality and institutional engagement trends
Position sizing within risk parameters
Stop loss proximity to institutional levels
Weekly Review
Portfolio allocation vs. target percentages
Risk/reward ratios for all open positions
Institutional volume profile evolution
Correlation analysis across positions
Performance tracking vs. benchmarks
Monthly Evaluation
Quarterly volume profile updates
YTD POC alignment reassessment
Strategy performance attribution
Risk management protocol effectiveness
Market regime change identification
Key Success Factors
Institutional Intelligence Priority
Decision Hierarchy :
Institutional volume profile positioning (strategic)
YTD POC alignment validation (tactical)
Technical indicator confirmation (execution)
Risk management protocols (defensive)
Discipline Requirements
Systematic adherence to position sizing formulas
Emotional detachment from individual trade outcomes
Institutional level respect over short-term price action
Professional risk management with systematic protocols
Performance Expectations
Win Rate Target : 55-65% (institutional backing advantage)
Risk/Reward Minimum : 2:1 average across all trades
Maximum Drawdown : <8% of trading capital
Consistency : Positive monthly returns 65%+ of time
Disclaimer : All trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Position sizes and risk management protocols must be adjusted based on individual account size and risk tolerance. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered personalized investment advice.
Document Status : Active trading framework requiring weekly updates and quarterly reassessment.
NASDAQ If this trend-line holds, it targets 29500.Nasdaq (NDX) has it's long-term bullish trend intact as it has mainly held its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as its Support. If it manages to hold the 1W MA20 (red trend-line) also, then it can extend the uptrend for even longer as the similarities overall with the 2020 fractal are noticeable.
As you can see, the March - April 2025 correction in particular, is very similar with the March 2020 COVID crash. Both sharp declines (-25% and -30% respectively), found Support just before hitting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The 2020 fractal managed to rebound and reached its 2.0 Fibonacci extension and even extended the uptrend to the 2.5 Fib, all while the 1W MA20 remained intact (1W candles closed above it).
Even their 1W RSI sequences are identical and even on the price action that preceded the Megaphones. As a result, we remain bullish long-term as long as the 1W MA20 holds, targeting 29500 (Fib 2.0 extension).
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BTCUSD outlook and walkthrough. 9/9/2025, MondayBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
CSD model. Expansion. Retracement Market Profile
NASDAQ (NQ1!): Buy It Until The Market Notifies Us Otherwise!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 8 - 12.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ looks poised to move higher. There is potential for it to make a new ATH.
Wait for pullbacks to poi's for valid long setups.
I do not see a reason to sell this market. Until there is a bearish break of market structure, buys are the ticket.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Labor Market vs. Inflation Risks: What Traders Should WatchCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! CBOT:ZN1! CBOT:ZB1! ECONOMICS:USNFP
The stock market is currently holding near all-time highs. Today, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) report, which includes the NFP (non-farm payrolls), will be released at 7:30 am CT.
Market participants are closely watching the non-farm payrolls, with the forecast at 75K, as well as any prior revisions to earlier NFP numbers. The unemployment rate is expected at 4.3%, a slight increase of 0.1%.
Looking ahead, upcoming key events include inflation data and the September FOMC rate decision:
• Aug PPI (Sep 10): A gauge of upstream price pressures. Hot numbers would signal renewed inflation risks.
• Aug CPI & Core CPI (Sep 11): Critical headline data. A softer print would support the dovish case.
• Fed Decision (Sep 17): This meeting comes after the Aug NFP data release (Sep 5).
While there is broad optimism and euphoria in the market, we remain cautious based on our analysis of major futures indexes. Traders should be mindful of signals that could point to a pullback.
Our reasoning:
Markets are currently pricing in two 25 bps cuts for the September and October FOMC meetings, which would bring the target rate down to 3.75%–4.00%.
Additionally, markets are now pricing in four 25 bps cuts in 2026. Prior to the Jackson Hole meeting and recent Fed-related developments, expectations were for three cuts in 2025 and two cuts in 2026.
Does this imply that the effective tariff rate is benign? Is inflation expected to fall, or does this suggest that the Fed is willing to tolerate average inflation in the 2.5%–3.0% range?
The upcoming Fed meeting is likely to emphasize risks to the labor market, while downplaying inflation risks, highlighting the tradeoff within the Fed’s dual mandate.
Other considerations:
Seasonal and cyclical flows also suggest that equity indexes tend to underperform in September and October on average.
Risk-Monitoring Framework: Signs of a Pullback
Given the deteriorating macro backdrop, further steepening of the yield curve, persistently high long-end yields, and the heavy concentration of stock market capitalization in the Mag 9 stocks, it is critical to monitor:
1. Rates & Yield Curve
• 2s10s & 5s30s steepening: Excess steepening with long-end yields above 4.5% would tighten financial conditions.
• SOFR futures spreads: Divergence vs. FOMC guidance can signal rate-path misalignment.
2. Labor Market Signals
• NFP revisions: Downward revisions of >50K would reinforce labor weakness.
• Unemployment rate: Sustained above 4.3% could mark a turning point for the Fed’s labor mandate.
3. Inflation Data
• PPI upside surprises: A risk that supply-side shocks re-ignite inflationary pressures.
• CPI/Core CPI stickiness: Core >3.1% YoY would challenge the market’s dovish pricing.
4. Equity Market Internals
• Mag 9 leadership: Watch for relative weakness in NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA, GOOG, AVGO, and BRK.A.
• Breadth indicators: Advance/decline line and % of S&P 500 above 200-day MA. Narrowing breadth = fragility.
• Volatility (VIX): A spike above 20 would indicate stress returning to equity risk sentiment.
5. Cross-Asset Indicators
• Credit spreads (IG & HY): Widening signals stress in funding markets.
• USD & Commodities: Rising USD and higher energy prices would tighten global liquidity.
Conclusion
While optimism remains strong, we caution that macro deterioration, yield curve dynamics, and concentrated equity leadership create fragility. Pullback risks rise if:
• NFP disappoints sharply,
• inflation re-accelerates, or
• outperformance in the Mag 9 begins to roll over.
Traders should monitor these risk indicators closely, as they often precede market drawdowns in September–October.
Nasdaq 100 (US100) – Short Opportunity Still AliveThe Nasdaq is still showing weakness at it's current level. There’s been more than enough time and news to push this market higher – but nothing happened. That, in itself, is a strong signal.
What we’re seeing now:
Weak jobs data: ADP and JOLTS both came in soft. Job openings hit the lowest level in nearly a year. That boosted rate-cut hopes – but the Nasdaq didn’t move.
Tech underperformance: Broader markets found some strength, but tech keeps lagging behind. Nasdaq isn’t leading like it used to – that’s bearish.
China IPO risks: New Nasdaq restrictions on Chinese listings are adding pressure to overall tech sentiment.
No follow-through: Even with dovish expectations and weak macro, bulls can’t lift the index. That says a lot.
Trade Setup (based on the chart):
Entry: between 23,480 and 23,520
Stop Loss: above 23,600 or if not high leverage even 23,720
Targets:
T1: 23,250
T2: 23,000
T3: will update depending on momentum
Why this short still makes sense:
The Nasdaq had multiple bullish triggers – weak data, Fed expectations, soft dollar – and didn’t move.
Sentiment is shaky, buyers aren’t stepping in.
Tech remains heavy while other sectors rotate.
Price is stalling right at resistance after a weak bounce.
Summary:
Plenty of chances to break out – but nothing happened. That’s a red flag.
I’m shorting between 23,480 and 23,520, with targets at 23,250 and 23,000.
Setup is invalid if we break cleanly above 23,720.
No financial advice – just how I see the chart right now.
E mini Nasdaq 100. Daily Outlook and walkthroughCME_MINI:NQU2025
Explained the reasoning and the orderflow on NQ. Clean onesided delivery during New York Open
Nasdaq - Preparing for another correction!🚔Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is starting to look weak:
🔎Analysis summary:
Over the course of the past couple of months, we witnessed an incredible rally on the Nasdaq. Following this previous price action, it is quite likely that we will soon see another correction. This could start with the current retest of the channel resistance trendline.
📝Levels to watch:
$23.000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Is Nasdaq still Bullish?I’m still sensing bullish momentum on Nasdaq. My expectation is for price to retrace back into this week’s NWOG before making a push toward last week’s NWOG and the 1-hour gap at 23,583.00. There’s also a possibility we dip to fill the gap at 23,400.00 first, but if that scenario plays out, I don’t see price maintaining its bullish momentum afterward.
On the weekly chart, price continues to strongly respect the Bullish OB formed in the first week of August. As long as this level holds, I expect momentum to carry us higher in the near term.
We'll see tomorrow morning⚡
Shenandoah Telecommunications Co — September 02, 2025Sergio Richi Premium ✅
NASDAQ:SHEN — Shenandoah Telecommunications Co (NASDAQ:SHEN) Insider Activity Report | Communication Services | Telecom Services |USA | NASDAQ | September 02, 2025.
Price (Sept 2, 2025) : $12.95
Insider Activity
ECP ControlCo, a 10% owner tied to Energy Capital Partners, has been steadily loading up on SHEN since May. From late May through August 29, they picked up 864K+ shares worth over $11M, pushing their stake above 3.3M shares (~6.1% of the float). The buying wasn’t symbolic—this is real money, consistently deployed on a stock that’s been under pressure.
(SEC Form 4)
www.sec.gov
(SEC Form 4)
www.sec.gov
1. Company Overview
Shenandoah Telecommunications (Shentel) runs fiber broadband, video, and voice services across Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Its flagship brand Glo Fiber is expanding fast, with 40%+ YoY revenue growth. Q2 2025 showed revenue at $88.6M (+3.2% YoY), with adjusted EBITDA up 21.9%. Despite a small net loss, the operating trend is improving.
Market cap sits just over $700M, with insiders holding ~11% and institutions ~65%.
2. Why It Matters
• Fiber-to-the-home growth is the story: Q2 Glo Fiber up 40.5%.
• Rural broadband subsidies add a tailwind.
• Institutional inflows are showing up: Southeastern Asset Mgmt (+151%), Longleaf (+151%), RBC (+184%), Two Sigma (+119%), Invesco (+104%).
• Short interest is modest (~4.4% float).
Charts:
• (3W)
Insider Trades:
SHEN seasonality:
SHEN Hedge Fund Flows:
SHEN Ownership:
3. The setup:
SHEN has been trading heavy but looks like it found a floor around $13. Insider conviction plus institutional inflows give me confidence this is a buy-the-weakness play.
Entry : $12.95–$13.35
🎯 Take Profit 1: $16.70 (+29%)
🎯 Take Profit 2: $28.00 (+116%)
My Take
Insiders are writing 8-figure checks into a depressed tape, institutions are scaling in, and fiber growth is compounding.
NASDAQ (NAS 100): Short Term Sells to the Weekly +FVG!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 1 - 5th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ failed to make a new ATH last week, indicating some weakness in the market. Frequently, Swing failures precede reversals, and this seems to be the case on the Daily TF.
Look for price to confirm bearish intent, as the sell side liquidity targets draw price down to the +FVG at 22.582.
A bullish BOS at current levels would invalidate this trade idea.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NASDAQ holding the 4H MA200 can initiate the next rally.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since mid May and currently is consolidating on its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on the 4H RSI we might be on a similar Higher Low as on May 30, having previously made a Channel Up bottom near the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
The Bullish Leg that followed this Low was +6.80%, so we have our Target tailored on it at 24500.
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E mini Nasdaq 100. Weekly Outlook. September 01, 2025CME_MINI:NQ1!
Expecting all out meltdown on Nasdaq. And the other two indexes. August was insane. But September will be extremely volatile
Possible shorts incoming on ES (S&P 500)Price tapped a daily resistance, and the 1h is bearish. Shorts only with a confirmation
NASDAQ Can this 1D MA50 rebound be sustainable?Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since May 12 and last week made a double rebound very close to its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is technically the latest Higher Low of the pattern and as long as it holds, we should see the new Bullish Leg.
The last two major ones rose by roughly +10% each. Given that the 1D RSI also made a Double Bottom on its Support, we remain bullish on Nasdaq, targeting 24800.
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NASDAQ 100: Bullish, But There Is a Headwind.....Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 25 - 29th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ has a bearish FVG on the Daily TF. Should it fail, buy the pullback to it, as it will invert to a iFVG and support higher prices.
Should it fail, and we will know Monday/Tuesday, sells become valid, down to the Weekly bullish FVG.
Let the market unfold Monday, then look for valid entries.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NASDAQ (NQ1!): Started Retracing Last Week. Will It Continue?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 18 - 22nd.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ reached ATHs Tuesday, and retraced for the rest of the week. Will there be some
follow through to open next week? Wait for the market to tip its hand and show you strength or weakness.
If the highlighted +OB fails, look for sells.
If the OB holds, buys until a bearish BOS takes place.
Enjoy!
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Are Longterm Interest Rates Telling Us Something?I rarely cite financial news in my market updates.
My reasoning is simple: all perspectives, bullish or bearish, are ultimately reflected in price action. That price action forms patterns, and those patterns can be analyzed to produce reasonable forecasts. After years of applying Elliott Wave theory, this approach has consistently stood the test of time.
That said, I’ll break from tradition today, as I believe the following excerpt is particularly relevant to my latest Trading View update. It comes from Barbara Kollmeyer’s article, “There’s a slow-motion crisis in bonds — and this bearish strategist thinks it will hit stocks.”
For context, I regularly track multiple market indices, futures contracts, single stocks, and notably, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond. For the past year, I’ve highlighted the counterintuitive rise in long-term yields that ironically began when the Fed started cutting its benchmark rate in September 2024. While brief divergences between long-term yields and Fed policy aren’t unusual, this persistent uptrend is different. The yield has been carving out a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, appearing now on the verge of a breakout—not just toward incremental new highs, but potentially into a runaway scenario for long-term rates.
This is why Albert Edwards’ recent comments caught my attention:
“There is a slow-motion crisis unfolding in the government bond markets that equity investors continue to ignore at their peril. The upward grind for long bond yields has been relentless, yet investors keep ignoring that to focus instead on more bullish metrics such as the latest reporting season driven by the mega-cap IT stocks, that promises a pot of gold at the end of the AI rainbow.”
His perspective resonated with me.
Having lived through the dot-com boom and bust, I recall how new technologies can fuel outsized market optimism. AI undoubtedly carries transformational potential, much like the Internet. But just as it took nearly two decades for the Internet to fully translate from speculative boom to tangible economic value, AI’s payoff will likely follow a similarly extended trajectory. It’s not an immediate catalyst.
What I am certain of is this: the cost of long-term money is rising, with implications far beyond bond charts. Higher yields directly affect mortgage rates and other long-term financing costs. More importantly, sustained upward pressure in long-term rates has the potential to weigh heavily on equities, broader markets, and asset valuations for far longer than many currently expect.
Nasdaq Bounces Off Demand Zone: Opportunities for a Bullish Rev.Yesterday, the Nasdaq experienced a notable rebound from the daily demand zone around 23,201, signaling buying interest at that level. However, as the EU trading session commenced, the index quickly shifted to a bearish impulse, reflecting ongoing market uncertainties and cautious sentiment among traders.
Key Levels and Opportunities
Despite the short-term pullback, the chart presents a compelling opportunity for traders to consider a "buy low" approach near the next demand zone at approximately 22,983. If the market finds support there, it could set the stage for a recovery, with the potential for the Nasdaq to rally back toward the 24,000 mark or even higher.
Market Outlook and Analyst Projections
Analysts remain optimistic about the index’s prospects, with many projecting a strong finish to the year. The Nasdaq, known for its volatility and lucrative trading opportunities, continues to attract traders seeking to capitalize on its upward momentum. As always, projections are optimistic, but the current technical setup suggests that there could be a favorable risk/reward ratio for those willing to position for a rally.
Final Thoughts
In a market characterized by rapid shifts and unpredictable moves, identifying key demand zones and monitoring reaction levels is crucial. The upcoming sessions could provide a prime entry point for those looking to buy dips, with the potential for the Nasdaq to forge ahead into the year’s final stretch with gains.
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E mini Nasdaq 100. NYSE. 20.08.2025, WednesdayCME_MINI:NQU2025
Outlined the daily Institutional Order flow. And the Market Efficiency Paradigm
Gap Fill & Reversal Long IdeaI am anticipating a strong move through the August Monthly Open, with price sweeping the lows and targeting the 4H gap at 23,303.50. Once that level is tagged, I’ll be watching for signs of a reversal, ideally an inverse head and shoulders formation to shift bias back to the upside.
My target: a clean push toward the NDOG zone at 23,478.00
NASDAQ testing its 4H MA50. Will it offer Support?Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since May 11 and is approaching its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) today following a Wednesday initiated pull-back.
Technically this is so far a normal correction for this pattern, which offers a short-term buy signal as the 3 times during those 4 months that it broke convincingly, it rebounded on or close to the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, if the 4H MA50 offers a rebound, we could see a +9.80% rebound from the 4H MA200, the minimum that this Channel Up has delivered upon a Bullish Leg. That gives a Target of 24800.
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