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Commodity Supercycles Don’t Start Where Most People LookOne thing I have learned over the years: 🥇Gold is usually first. (already done) Not because the economy is booming, but because something feels off. Wars... Inflation... you name it. Gold reacts before the story is clear. 🥈Then silver starts waking up. (happening) That’s usually when attention shifts from protection to opportunity. Silver doesn’t just follow gold, it magnifies it. It is cheaper and more convenient especially for those who missed gold's move! 🥉After that, the industrial metals come into play. Copper, palladium, platinum. This is where the cycle starts to feel real. Demand is no longer theoretical. Growth shows up on the charts. (this feels just like altcoin season in crypto lol) 🛢Oil and gas tend to move later. Not last by accident. By then, expansion is obvious and inflation pressures are already building. 🔄Most traders get this backwards. They chase what’s already moving instead of asking why it’s moving. The edge isn’t guessing the top or bottom. It’s understanding what stage the market is in and positioning accordingly. Honest question...⁉️ Are you reacting to what already moved… or paying attention to what’s just starting? ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
25
Oil Risk-Premium Phase, Geopolitical-Driven Upside Move📝 Description Crude Oil on H4 is trading inside a bearish HTF structure, but recent price action shows a corrective recovery driven by rising geopolitical risk. The current move looks reactionary, not impulsive, with price responding to risk-premium flows rather than a confirmed structural shift. Market remains sensitive around key HTF PD Arrays. ________________________________________ 📈 Analysis (Scenario-Based | Non-Signal) Primary Scenario (Risk-Premium Driven): • Rising US–Venezuela tensions are adding a clear risk premium to oil prices • Initial upside moves are headline-driven spikes fueled by hedging and speculation • Price is reacting to expectations, not confirmed supply disruptions Short-Term Market Behavior: • Short-term bias remains bullish with elevated volatility • Pullbacks are likely liquidity-driven corrections, not reversals • These moves help reset positioning before continuation Structural Context: • No confirmed HTF CHOCH + BOS so far • Structure remains corrective within the broader range ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Upside moves classified as risk-premium reactions, not structural breakouts • Corrections viewed as liquidity accumulation phases • HTF PD Arrays remain dominant reference points ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary Oil is trading in a risk-premium environment driven by US–Venezuela tensions. Short-term bias remains bullish, with upside spikes fueled by hedging and speculation. Pullbacks are likely liquidity resets, not trend reversals, keeping the structure tilted higher despite volatility. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by TFlab
USOIL Sell Opportunity | Downtrend + Rising Venezuela Supply!Hey Traders, In tomorrow’s trading session, we are closely monitoring USOIL for a potential selling opportunity around the 57.50 zone. USOIL remains in a well-defined downtrend and is currently in a corrective pullback, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 57.50 support-turned-resistance area, which could act as a strong rejection zone. From a fundamental perspective, expectations that Trump’s takeover of Venezuela’s oil supply could increase global oil production may lead to higher supply in the market. According to basic supply and demand dynamics, an increase in supply—if not matched by demand—can put downward pressure on oil prices, reinforcing the bearish technical outlook. As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk carefully. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:USOILShort
by JoeChampion
2
Will Crude Oil Markets React to Maduro's Arrest: Trading Setup🚨 Crude oil could see a significant GAP with futures open! The impact of the "breaking news" regarding President Maduro's capture and extradition on "crude oil" prices, especially for the "market open" this Sunday. The crude oil market is at a significant turning point as it tests the 57.32 level. Technically, the price is squeezed between a firm resistance at 61.06 and a multi-month floor at 54.68. While the recent arrest of Venezuela's president initially created a risk premium, analysts expect the long-term impact to be bearish if new investments eventually boost Venezuelan supply. For now, the trend remains heavy, with rallies likely to find sellers near the 60.00 mark. #CrudeOil #Trading #WTI #OPEC #EnergyMarket #Investing #MarketAnalysis
NYMEX:CLG2026
by TheMotivationalProfessor
USOIL Outlook: Bearish Below 57.41 Despite Venezuela Supply RiskUSOIL (WTI) | Technical + Fundamental Snapshot Fundamental driver to watch: Venezuela supply risk Recent headlines are supply-supportive for crude: Reuters reports Venezuela’s oil exports have come to a halt amid political turmoil and U.S. sanctions/embargo dynamics, with tankers stuck and storage nearing capacity—raising the risk of forced production cuts if exports remain blocked. Reuters Reuters also noted that Venezuelan oil facilities were operating normally and were not damaged in the reported U.S. operation—so the key risk is logistics/exports, not infrastructure destruction. Reuters For context, Reuters previously highlighted Venezuelan crude as roughly ~1% of global supply, which can still move prices at the margin when markets are thin or risk-sensitive. Reuters How this fits your chart: Venezuela tension can create spikes and whipsaws, but your structure still shows selling pressure below the pivot—so rallies may be corrective unless key levels break. TECHNICAL VIEW Timeframe: 6H Current Price: ~57.32 Pivot Line: 57.41 Market Structure Price is trading below the pivot (57.41) and making lower highs, which keeps the bias bearish. Your projected path suggests a small corrective bounce, then continuation lower into the demand zone. Scenarios 🔻 Bearish scenario (Primary) Bias stays bearish while below 57.41 First target: 56.38 If price breaks/holds below 56.38, continuation toward the demand zone (~55.6–55.0 area) is likely (as you marked). Next major support after that: 54.38 🔺 Bullish scenario (Invalidation) A bullish shift needs a reclaim of the pivot and follow-through: Hold above 57.41 first Then a push above 58.69 increases the chance of a recovery toward: 60.16 61.83 Key Levels (Your Chart) Pivot: 57.41 Resistance: 58.69 → 60.16 → 61.83 Support: 56.38 → 54.38 → 51.92 Conclusion Even with Venezuela headlines supporting headline-driven spikes, your chart remains technically bearish below 57.41, favoring a move toward 56.38 and potentially the 55.xx demand zone, unless price reclaims the pivot and breaks higher.
TVC:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
CVX: The Perfect Storm (Macro Catalyst + Massive Channel)The news cycle is obsessed with the politics of the US & Venezuela, but the smart money is focused on the supply chain. I created this chart to visualize how a massive fundamental catalyst (The Flags) is colliding with a decade-long technical structure (The Channel). 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The Flags 🇺🇸🇻🇪) While the headlines are about "deals," the reality for the energy sector is about Market Access. Chevron ( NYSE:CVX ) is the primary US major with the "keys to the kingdom"—active OFAC licenses and operational Joint Ventures on the ground. The Moat: While competitors are years away from navigating new contracts, CVX has a "Turnkey" advantage. The infrastructure is there. The pipes are connected. The Shift: This opens the door to immediate heavy crude reserves for US Gulf Coast refineries, a massive tailwind for margins. 2. The Technical Structure (The Blue Channel) 📉 Politics is noise; Price is truth. Look at the geometry in the chart: The Channel: Price has respected this massive Blue Ascending Channel for years. It defines the institutional trend. The Coil: We have been compressing in a tight Triangle Consolidation (white lines) right at the breakout point. The Target (TP Circle) : If we break out of this triangle, the standard technical measured move targets the upper rail of the channel. This aligns with the "TP" zone marked on the chart, projecting a move toward "Blue Sky" territory. 3. The Verdict Rarely do you see a "Perfect Storm" where a Macro Event (Venezuela reopening) aligns this cleanly with a Technical Setup (Triangle Breakout). The structure suggests the market is pricing in a "Supercycle" return for American energy access. 👇 The "Venezuela Reconstruction" Watchlist: If the Venezuela thesis plays out, it's not just Chevron that moves. Here is the basket of related Energy, Services, and Refining stocks I am tracking for this cycle: Majors: NYSE:CVX , NYSE:COP Services (Boots on the Ground): NYSE:SLB , NSE:HAL , AMEX:OIH Refiners (Heavy Crude Beneficiaries): NYSE:VLO , NYSE:MPC , NYSE:PSX , NYSE:DINO , NYSE:PBF Sector ETF: AMEX:XLE Which of these is your top pick for the reconstruction trade? Let me know in the comments! Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes regarding market reaction to geopolitical events. It is based on technical chart geometry and public news. Not investment advice.
NYSE:CVXLong
by Algoat_Alpha
Oil volatility: First short entry point at $60.23The job was done! Trump kept his word — military action against Venezuela has begun. Frankly, this was predictable. Monday’s open will be extremely volatile — especially for oil and the U.S. dollar I suppose. 🔍 Now, let’s get more specific. This military operation was expected, even pre-planned. And It won’t reverse the existing downward trend in oil. So here’s my plan: I’ll short oil on rallies — but with reduced lot size and leverage, keeping room to add if price goes higher. Why? Because panic spikes happen — but they’re often short-lived. 📌 My entry zone starts at the ER level — $60.23 futures (marked on the chart). That’s where I’ll place my first scaled-in short, carefully and calmly. P.S. The ER formula is available on the CME exchange's website, and in just a few minutes, you can input the data to get incredible results. It’s truly amazing!
TVC:USOILShort
by ClashChartsTeam
The Venezuelan EffectIn this video I going to exhibit the effect of the the profound economic crisis in Venezuela and its broader global implications. WTI, BRENT, BA, EXXON, LOCHKEADMARTIN Overview of the Crisis The video details Venezuela's transition from being the wealthiest nation in South America to a country grappling with extreme hyperinflation and economic collapse . It highlights how the nation's heavy reliance on oil exports—accounting for nearly 95% of its export earnings—made it uniquely vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices . Key Economic Factors The Resource Curse: The video explains how "Dutch Disease" occurred, where the focus on oil led to the neglect of other sectors like agriculture and manufacturing . Hyperinflation: It discusses the catastrophic devaluation of the Bolívar, which led to a scenario where basic necessities became unaffordable for the average citizen . Government Policy: The narrative touches upon the impact of price controls, nationalization of industries, and the role of political instability in exacerbating the financial downturn . The Human and Global Impact Mass Migration: A significant portion of the video is dedicated to the massive exodus of Venezuelans seeking better opportunities in neighboring countries, creating a regional humanitarian challenge . Geopolitical Shifts: It explores how Venezuela’s situation has influenced regional politics and energy markets worldwide . The video concludes by analyzing the current state of the Venezuelan economy and whether recent shifts in policy or international relations offer a path toward stabilization .
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by MartketsTitan
Oil Traders Watch This Breakdown Level Carefully🔻 XTI/USD (WTI / USOIL) — Bearish Breakout Trade Blueprint Energies Market | Day / Swing Trade Opportunity 📌 Asset Overview XTI/USD – WTI Crude Oil vs U.S. Dollar Market Type: Energy Commodity (CFD / Futures correlated) Trading Style: Day Trade / Swing Trade 🧭 Trade Plan 🔴 Primary Bias: BEARISH BREAKOUT CONTINUATION Price has completed a structure breakdown, confirming seller dominance after failed bullish recovery. Momentum favors downside continuation as liquidity shifts below key levels. 🎯 Entry Strategy 📍 Sell AFTER confirmed breakout below → 56.80 • You may enter at any price level after breakout confirmation • Aggressive traders: enter on breakdown momentum • Conservative traders: wait for a pullback retest below 56.80 Execution depends on your risk model & position sizing. 🛑 Stop Loss (Risk Control) 🚨 Protective SL: 58.00 ⚠️ This is a reference level, not a mandatory rule. Adjust your stop placement based on: Timeframe Volatility Account risk parameters 🎯 Profit Objective 🎯 Primary TP Zone: 55.80 Why this zone matters: • Strong historical support • Oversold reaction area • High probability of short-covering • Correction + liquidity trap zone ⚠️ Partial profits are advised as price approaches this region. 🔎 Key Technical Drivers ✔️ Breakdown below key structure ✔️ Lower highs + lower lows ✔️ Momentum shift favoring sellers ✔️ Failed bullish continuation ✔️ Liquidity sweep completed above range 🌍 Related Markets to Watch (Correlation Map) 💵 USD-Linked Instruments DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) → Strong USD often pressures oil prices USD/CAD → Inverse correlation (CAD = oil-linked currency) 📉 Risk & Macro Assets US10Y Treasury Yields → Rising yields = pressure on commodities S&P 500 / US Indices → Risk-off sentiment weighs on energy demand 🛢️ Energy Complex Brent Crude (UKOIL) → Confirms directional bias Energy Sector Stocks → Weakness confirms oil downside momentum 📰 Fundamental & Economic Factors Supporting This Trade ⚖️ Macro Environment • Demand concerns from global growth slowdown • Stronger USD reducing commodity attractiveness • Tight financial conditions limiting speculative inflows 🛢️ Oil-Specific Factors • Inventory sensitivity remains elevated • Market reacts sharply to supply-demand imbalance • Volatility increases near key economic releases 📅 Upcoming Market Sensitivities • U.S. inflation data • Federal Reserve policy expectations • Energy inventory updates • Global growth & demand outlook commentary Expect volatility spikes around high-impact macro releases. ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer This analysis is not financial advice. Stop loss and take profit levels are guidelines only. Every trader must manage risk according to their own strategy. 👍 If this analysis adds value • Drop a LIKE 👍 • Share your view in comments 💬 • Follow for consistent energy market breakdowns 📈
ICMARKETS:XTIUSD
by The-Thief
Brent Crude Oil | DailyBrent crude has been in a medium-term corrective phase since June 2025. Recent price action suggests this correction is nearing exhaustion. The latest move below the previous low appears to be a liquidity sweep rather than a true bearish continuation, followed by a quick reaction from the lows, indicating weakening sell-side pressure. A clear time divergence is present: the corrective leg has taken more time than the prior bullish impulse while achieving less price displacement, a typical sign of corrective exhaustion. Key resistance zones to monitor on any recovery: - 62.43 – 63.16 (near-term supply) - 66.17 – 66.90 (mid-range resistance) - 69.35 – 70.16 (major overhead supply) At current levels, selling offers a poor risk-to-reward profile. Bias gradually shifts toward the long side, especially if price breaks the descending trendline or shows structure shift on lower timeframes.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by GForecast
Natural Gas Is Hibernating Ahead of an Upcoming SwingToday, we will discuss why natural gas is hibernating ahead of an upcoming swing. We will deep dive into: 1) the impact of inflation on commodity prices, 2) the technical outlook, covering both long-term and short-term perspectives, and 3) the fundamental confirmation of this view, based on the “Five Things to Watch in Energy Markets in 2026.” Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures & Options Ticker: NG Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 per MMBtu = $10.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by konhow
WTI OIL Strong case for a 2-month rally.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down since the September 28 2023 High. Since then, it as had four Bearish Legs (including the current one), which declined on a range of -25.62% to -31.58%. All subsequent rebounds (Bullish Legs) that followed, hit at least their 0.681 Fibonacci retracement levels. Given that the price rebounded 2 weeks ago on the 8-month Support (55.20) and the 1W RSI has been on Higher Lows (i.e. Bullish Divergence) since May, we may see a new Bullish Leg emerging now. The one condition that will confirm that will be the price breaking above the blue Channel Down. If that takes place, we will turn bullish for the next two months, targeting $69.00 (Fib 0.618). --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
1
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 55.74 (Wave 5).Colleagues, wave “4” of the minor order is ending or has already ended. As part of a major downward movement in wave ‘5’ of the major movement, I expect a downward movement in wave “5” of the minor order. This wave should update the low of wave “3”, but I believe it is worth looking at the nearest target in the support area of 55.746. I also allow for the possibility of reaching the 59.00 area before the price begins a downward movement. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
9
WTI Energy Markets: Are Buyers Still in Control?🛢️ WTI / USOIL — Bullish Energy Momentum Play Energies • Commodities CFD • Day / Swing Trade 📌 Market Bias 🟢 Bullish Plan Active WTI crude oil is trading with strong upside momentum, supported by trend structure and energy-sector flows. Buyers continue to defend dips while price respects bullish continuation behavior. 🎯 Trade Plan Entry: ✅ Flexible entry allowed — you may enter at any price level, depending on your execution model and risk profile. Stop Loss: ⛔ Reference SL: 56.000 ⚠️ Risk disclaimer: Adjust your stop-loss based on your strategy, position sizing, and account risk rules. Take Profit Zone: 🚨 Primary Objective: 60.000 📉 The moving average zone acts as a “police force” resistance — expect: Overbought conditions Liquidity traps Potential corrective reactions 💡 Protect profits aggressively near resistance. 🧠 Technical Logic (Why This Works) ✔️ Bullish trend structure intact ✔️ Higher-low defense suggests dip buyers are active ✔️ Moving average acting as dynamic resistance → profit-booking zone ✔️ Momentum favors continuation until supply absorbs demand 🔗 Related Markets to Watch (Correlation Guide) 💵 USD-Based Pairs DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) → Inverse correlation 📉 Weaker USD often supports higher oil prices. USD/CAD → Strong negative correlation 🛢️ Rising oil typically strengthens CAD. 🛢️ Energy Instruments BRENT Crude → Directional confirmation XLE (Energy Sector ETF) → Institutional energy flow tracker Natural Gas (XNG/USD) → Sentiment cross-check (not direct correlation) 📈 Risk Sentiment US30 / S&P500 → Risk-on flows support commodity demand Bond Yields → Rising yields can cap aggressive oil rallies 🌍 Fundamental & Economic Factors to Monitor 📊 (Current & upcoming macro drivers) 🛢️ OPEC+ supply guidance (production discipline impacts price stability) 🏭 U.S. crude inventory data (supply-demand imbalance signals) 🌍 Global growth outlook (energy consumption expectations) 🚢 Geopolitical supply risks (shipping routes & production regions) 💵 U.S. Dollar strength (pricing pressure on commodities) 🏦 Central bank policy tone (risk appetite & inflation hedging) 📌 These factors can accelerate or cap bullish momentum, especially near resistance zones. ⚠️ Risk Note This idea provides market structure and directional context only. You control: Position size Risk exposure Entry & exit execution Trade responsibly and manage capital professionally. 💬 If this setup adds value, hit 👍 and ⭐ to support quality analysis. 📌 Follow for more structured energy & macro-driven trade ideas.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by The-Thief
Wti on high time frame 1. **Fundamental Analysis**: Given the current economic situation and tensions, particularly the conflict between the USA and Venezuela, I expect oil prices to rise. 2. **Technical Signals**: Technical analysis supports my expectations, indicating a favorable outlook for price movement. 3. **Price Target**: I anticipate that WTI could break through the $64 level. 4. **Risk Management**: Emphasizing the importance of good risk management while trading. If you need further insights or a specific aspect analyzed, feel free to ask!
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by somayehbasiri
Swing Long Trade Idea on USOILSwing Long Trade Idea on USOIL In 2025, metals, commodities, equities, and Bitcoin all reached new all time highs, while USOIL has lagged behind. I believe we could see a catch up move in USOIL during Q1 2026, as price is currently holding at a strong support level. I am considering a swing long position if USOIL breaks out of the descending triangle. The RR on this setup looks very attractive. My plan is to take partial profits at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, set the second target at the top of the channel, and trail the stop loss after the first target is reached. Share you thoughts
TVC:USOILLong
by smwajeeh
1
Market Report — Friday 26.12.25📉 Market Moves WTI front-month (CLG26): −2.76% (−1.61) Behavior: sharp sell-off through the session; prices weakened intraday as peace-deal headlines gained traction and closed near session lows. RBOB gasoline (RBG26): −2.66% (−0.0467) Behavior: tracked crude lower with high beta; product selling accelerated alongside crude as risk premium was removed. Complex view: broad risk-premium unwind, with crude and products moving in tandem. 📊 Key Drivers Bearish Ukraine–Russia peace progress (major): Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a 20-point peace plan is ~90% complete and expects to meet Donald Trump, increasing expectations that sanctions on Russian energy could eventually be eased. Risk premium compression: Markets discounted reduced geopolitical disruption risk if negotiations advance, prompting liquidation after recent supply-risk rallies. Rising US rig count: Baker Hughes reported US oil rigs up +3 w/w to 409, tempering the bullish supply narrative from prior weeks. Medium-term surplus narrative: OPEC and IEA continue to project 2025–26 surplus conditions. Bullish Venezuela tanker blockade (secondary): The US Coast Guard forced the sanctioned tanker Bella 1 to turn away as part of the blockade involving Venezuela, supporting prices at the margin. Russia supply constraints (secondary): Continued Ukrainian attacks on refineries and tankers and ongoing US/EU sanctions limit exports from Russia. Nigeria security strikes: US strikes on ISIS targets in Nigeria (an OPEC member) added minor geopolitical support. OPEC+ discipline: OPEC+ reaffirmed its plan to pause production increases in Q1-2026. 📝 Post-Mortem Analysis Why prices moved: Markets aggressively priced in the possibility of a Ukraine–Russia ceasefire, stripping out geopolitical risk premium despite ongoing physical disruptions. Crude vs products: Gasoline followed crude lower with little independent support, reflecting weak seasonal demand and high correlation during risk-off sessions. What changed from prior day: The narrative shifted from supply disruption escalation to diplomatic progress, reversing the bullish momentum built earlier in the week. 🧾 Summary Oil prices sold off sharply as peace-deal optimism triggered a risk-premium unwind that overwhelmed ongoing Venezuela and Russia supply constraints.
CFI:WTI
by Rix1113