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Oil

Where Is Oil Heading To ? - /CL Analysis 1) Technical Perspective: Support & Resistance ~$65 was a support zone earlier (2021–2024). In 2025–26, that $65 area now often acts as resistance. Prices have come down toward $55 2) Fundamental Drivers Behind the Downtrend Oil has been in a multi-year decline from the highs seen in 2022 after the Russia–Ukraine war spike. A combination of oversupply and weaker demand has kept price pressure on: • 2025 saw a large annual price drop due to persistent oversupply and slow demand. • EIA and IEA reports project global oil supply continuing to exceed demand into 2026. This structural oversupply (positive global inventories) pushes the short-term bias lower unless demand surprises on the upside. 3) Geopolitical Drivers — Including Venezuela Recent news confirms that geopolitics remain a key wild card: The U.S. has taken actions around Venezuelan oil assets and plans to export Venezuelan crude, which could add supply and weigh on prices, especially if revitalisation occurs. Oil prices did tick up short-term on inventory draws and Venezuela focus, but long-term gains from Venezuelan production may be limited because infrastructure will take years to rebuild. Geopolitical tensions can spike oil temporarily, but unless supply physically tightens, the structure stays bearish. 4) OPEC / OPEC+ Decisions OPEC’s recent behaviour has been a big driver: In 2025, OPEC+ unwound production cuts, which contributed to oversupply and lower prices. For 2026: The OPEC+ view has shifted toward equilibrium, but global supply growth still challenges prices. If OPEC+ cuts output further or extends cuts, prices could find stronger support around current levels ($55–$65). If OPEC+ maintains or increases production while demand stays soft, that supports a drop toward $45–$50. So OPEC policy is one of the most important catalysts, it fundamentally shifts supply. 5) Demand Risks & Macro Conditions Global demand remains under pressure: Chinese economic weakness and slower global growth reduce oil demand. And EIA forecasts oversupply growth in 2026. Lower demand growth + abundant supply = structural downside risk. 6) Link to US Dollar, Inflation & Rates Higher real rates / stronger USD → oil tends to weaken: Oil is USD-denominated. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Tight monetary policy (higher rates) can slow economic growth and demand for oil. Lower real rates / weaker USD → oil tends to strengthen: Cheaper USD can support crude prices if demand fundamentals improve. Right now, with US economic strength and mixed inflation data elsewhere, it’s not certain the Fed will aggressively cut. If inflation re-accelerates and the Fed resists rate cuts or even raises, that could strengthen the USD and pressure oil lower. However, if the Fed eases later, weaker real rates could help commodities broadly, but oil’s supply/demand story still matters more. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Asset prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not a licensed financial advisor or professional trader. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by bossout10
8
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 54.53 (Wave 5).Colleagues, the price is still forming a downward impulse of five waves, and given the geopolitical situation and rather loud news, we need to be cautious. Therefore, I believe that wave “5” will update the minimum of wave ‘3’, but I will not set a distant goal - I want to see the price in the support area of 54.53. This will be enough to confirm the structure of the momentum and think about the continuation of the large “ABC” correction. It is quite possible that we may see a small correction to the 57.00 area before the start of the downward movement. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
5
WTIUSD: Bearish Drop to 54.66?As the previous analysis worked exactly as predicted, CFI:WTI is eyeing a bearish continuation on the 4-hour chart , with price testing resistance after lower highs in a downward channel, converging with a potential entry zone that could spark downside momentum if sellers defend amid recent volatility. This setup suggests a pullback opportunity in the downtrend, targeting lower support levels with approximately 1:4 risk-reward .🔥 Entry between 56.94–57.22 for a short position (entry from current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 54.66 . Set a stop loss at a daily close above 57.5 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:4 . Monitor for confirmation via a bearish candle close below entry with rising volume, leveraging oil's volatility in the channel.🌟 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry (Short): 56.94 – 57.22 (Entry from current price is valid with proper risk & position sizing.) 🎯 Target: • 54.66 ❌ Stop Loss: • Daily close above 57.50 ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: • ~ 1:4 ⚠️ This analysis is the request of one of my followers . 💡 Your view? Does WTI roll over toward 54.66, or do buyers attempt another squeeze above channel resistance? 👇
CFI:WTIShort
by Master_Hunter
4
WTIUSD: Bearish Drop to 56?CFI:WTI is eyeing a bearish continuation on the 4-hour chart , with price testing the upper boundary of a downward channel after recent rebounds, converging with a resistance zone near cumulative sell liquidation that could trigger downside momentum if sellers defend the highs. This setup suggests a pullback opportunity amid the ongoing downtrend, targeting lower support levels with 1:2.5 risk-reward .🔥 Entry between 59–59.70 for a short position (entry at current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 56 . Set a stop loss at a close above 60.40 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of 1:2.5 . Monitor for confirmation via a bearish candle close below entry with rising volume, leveraging the channel's bearish bias.🌟 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry (Short): 59.00 – 59.70 (Entry from current price is valid with proper risk & capital management.) 🎯 Target: 56.00 ❌ Stop Loss: • Close above 60.40 ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: • ~ 1:2.5 💡 Your take? Does WTI reject channel resistance and slide toward 56.00, or will buyers force a deeper breakout attempt above 60.40 first? 👇
CFI:WTIShort
by Master_Hunter
8
WTI OIL This is what separates a drop to $49 from a rally to $68WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) remains within its 2-year Channel Down since the September 25 2023 High, as well within a 'smaller' one (blue) since late July 2025. What separates right now the market from a continuation of the latter's Channel Down downtrend and a rebound towards the long ones 1W MA100 (green trend-line), is the 8-month Support level of 55.20. As you can see, this has recently held (week of December 15 2025) for the 3rd time since April 2025. However the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) keeps rejecting any 1W candle, maintaining the bearish trend of the (blue) Channel Down. If it breaks and the market closes 2 straight 1W candles above it (1D MA50), then we expect a 2-3 month rally to test the 1W MA100 and the 0.618 Fibonacci level (like all previous Bullish Legs within the 2-year Channel Down did) at $68.00. If on the other hand the market closes a 1W candle below the 8-month Support (55.20), we expect the continuation of the bearish trend until the 1W RSI touches its long-term Support Zone again. An early estimated Target on his is $49.00 but best to take profit when the 1W RSI this the Support Zone regardless of the price, as it has marked the last two major market bottoms (Lower Lows). --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
BullishBullish trend will be officially confirmed when price decisively breaches above $70. This is a great place (in my opinion) to buy if looking to speculate. I entered multiple positions this morning that will benefit if I am correct. Complex corrections are extremely difficult to get accurate wave counts on, but I feel pretty good about this one overall. We could of course not be finished with the final wave Y down and have a bit more to go before, but we will see! Let me know what you all think. Cheers,
TVC:USOILLong
by MonetaryRebel
WTI Crude Oil – Inverse H&S Targeting Neckline BreakSummary: WTI is attempting a bullish reversal after forming an inverse Head & Shoulders on the H1 chart, with price pushing back toward a key neckline zone around 57.00. Technical Analysis: Price previously respected a descending channel, but recent bearish momentum stalled near the lower range, leading to a clear inverse Head & Shoulders structure. The left shoulder and head were formed after a sharp sell-off, followed by a higher low forming the right shoulder — a classic reversal signal. The neckline near 57.00–57.10 is the key level to watch. Current bullish candles show increasing buying pressure, suggesting an attempt to reclaim this level. A confirmed break and hold above the neckline would validate the pattern and open the door for continuation toward the upper channel area. Failure here would keep price range-bound and vulnerable to another pullback toward 56.20–55.80 support. Fundamental Context: Crude oil remains sensitive to OPEC+ production guidance, geopolitical risks, and near-term USD strength driven by Fed expectations. Any supportive headlines on supply tightening or softer dollar could help fuel the bullish breakout. Key Levels: Resistance / Neckline: 58.10 - 58.60 Bullish Targets: 60 → 62 (Making a HH in 4H timeframe) Support: 56.20 → 55.80 Invalidation: Sustained move below 55.80 Takeaway: Bullish if WTI breaks and holds above 57.10 — inverse H&S confirms and upside opens. Bearish if price rejects the neckline and loses 56.20, signaling continuation of the broader downtrend. #WTI #Oil #CrudeOil #PriceAction #ChartPatterns #TradingView #Commodities
TVC:USOIL
by uncleHamid
CRUDE OIL Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! CRUDE OIL is trading into a well-defined horizontal supply area where smart money distribution is evident. Buy-side liquidity has been taken, and a bearish reaction from premium suggests continuation toward lower liquidity pools below recent lows. -------------------- Stop Loss: 58.90$ Take Profit: 57.74$ Entry: 58.42$ Time Frame: 4H -------------------- Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:USOILShort
by TopTradingSignals
1
Can geopolitics rescue oil from five-year lows?At some point this year there could be a strong opportunity to buy crude oil, as prices near USD 55 per barrel are potentially unsustainable. WTI crude oil futures rose more than 3.5% on Thursday to trade above USD 57.9 per barrel, rebounding from a two-day slide. The move, however, was not enough to recover the losses earlier in the week, and prices remain close to the five-year low set in December. Uncertainty around Venezuelan exports resurfaced after Washington announced plans to maintain indefinite control over the country’s crude sales. Meanwhile, in Iran, protests have been reported in Tehran and other cities as inflation rises and the currency weakens, adding another layer of geopolitical risk for oil. Unlike Venezuela, Iran continues to export roughly 2 million barrels per day and produces between 3.2 and 3.5 million barrels per day, contributing a meaningful volume of global supply.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull Markets
Sell crude oil around 58.50, with a target of 57.00-55.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Recent crude oil data and fundamentals support buying opportunities, but crude oil is still slowly declining. The outlook remains bearish today; sell on rallies. Watch the minor resistance level at 58.50. A break below 55.00 would open up further downside potential. If this level is broken, consider selling. Fundamental Analysis: Yesterday's ADP employment data was -2.9, compared to an expected 4.7 and a result of 4.1. While this appears bullish in the short term, it actually signals a sell opportunity. Good employment data tends to cause gold to fall. Crude oil's EIA inventory data also fell to -338, compared to an expected 44. Trading Recommendation: Sell crude oil around 58.50, with a target of 57.00-55.00.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FlyingTowardsWealth
Oil Risk-Premium Phase, Geopolitical-Driven Upside Move📝 Description Crude Oil on H4 is trading inside a bearish HTF structure, but recent price action shows a corrective recovery driven by rising geopolitical risk. The current move looks reactionary, not impulsive, with price responding to risk-premium flows rather than a confirmed structural shift. Market remains sensitive around key HTF PD Arrays. ________________________________________ 📈 Analysis (Scenario-Based | Non-Signal) Primary Scenario (Risk-Premium Driven): • Rising US–Venezuela tensions are adding a clear risk premium to oil prices • Initial upside moves are headline-driven spikes fueled by hedging and speculation • Price is reacting to expectations, not confirmed supply disruptions Short-Term Market Behavior: • Short-term bias remains bullish with elevated volatility • Pullbacks are likely liquidity-driven corrections, not reversals • These moves help reset positioning before continuation Structural Context: • No confirmed HTF CHOCH + BOS so far • Structure remains corrective within the broader range ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Upside moves classified as risk-premium reactions, not structural breakouts • Corrections viewed as liquidity accumulation phases • HTF PD Arrays remain dominant reference points ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary Oil is trading in a risk-premium environment driven by US–Venezuela tensions. Short-term bias remains bullish, with upside spikes fueled by hedging and speculation. Pullbacks are likely liquidity resets, not trend reversals, keeping the structure tilted higher despite volatility. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by TFlab
EURCAD: Smart Money Trap LoadingMacro / COT The latest COT data paints an interesting picture: EUR – Non-Commercials remain heavily net-long, and long exposure continues to increase. This indicates that a large portion of speculative capital is already positioned to the upside. CAD – Commercials are accumulating long exposure, while Non-Commercials are reducing longs and adding shorts. From a Smart Money perspective, when commercials accumulate, they historically tend to anticipate medium-term reversals. This increases the probability that EURCAD is entering a distribution phase. Seasonality Historically, January is not supportive for the Euro. Multi-timeframe seasonality data (2–20 years) shows a negative tendency during the early part of the year. This reinforces a medium-term bearish bias, especially after technical relief rallies. Retail Sentiment Currently, 73% of retail traders are SHORT EURCAD. Such an extreme imbalance increases the probability of a temporary bullish squeeze, often used to clean weak retail shorts before the real directional move takes place. In other words: bullish spike first → potential bearish reversal afterwards. Price Action — Daily Chart On the daily chart, price is trading inside a descending channel and bouncing from lower demand, moving toward a key supply area between 1.6180 – 1.6250. The technical structure suggests: 1️⃣ Potential push higher into supply 2️⃣ Reaction and shift in structure 3️⃣ Targets around 1.6000 – 1.6030 RSI confirms weak momentum on rallies — an ideal context to sell a deep retracement rather than chase breakouts. Key Levels Sell Zone: 1.6180 – 1.6250 Target: 1.6030 → extension 1.5980 Invalidation: Daily close above 1.6300 This scenario remains valid as long as price does not structurally break above the supply block.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
USD/CAD extends gains for 7th day as oil fallsThe Canadian dollar is on its 7th day of losses vs. the US dollar. This is mostly to do with oil prices falling in response to the Venezuelan news. Markets are betting on a smoother recovery in Venezuelan oil output, which could be mildly bearish for oil prices amid concerns over excessive supply of the stuff. In turn, that could hurt the Canadian dollar, which has benefited from the absence of Venezuelan heavy crude. With the USD/CAD rebounding from a long-term bullish trend and making a higher low in December (1.3642) relative to its earlier low hit in June (1.3540), the bullish case is growing for this pair. Near-term resistance is seen around 1.3890ish and then at 1.3925ish, levels that were previously support. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREX.com
XTIUSD is trading in a bearish channel on the 8H timeframeXTIUSD is trading in a bearish channel on the 8H timeframe, with key support highlighted near 51.40 and resistance around 58.95. The structure favours a sell-on-rise approach as long as price stays below the upper channel and the breakdown zone near 56.90–58.00. 1. Timeframe and Context • Timeframe used: 8H chart for medium term swing structure. • Instrument: XTIUSD (WTI crude oil spot vs USD), currently trading in the mid 50s after a sustained decline. 2. Trend Structure • Price is moving inside a well defined descending channel with lower highs and lower lows, confirming a dominant downtrend. • The recent bounce attempts have been capped near the upper channel line, reinforcing sellers’ control over this. 3. Key Levels • Immediate resistance zone: 56.90–58.95, where previous highs, breakdown area, and channel resistance cluster together. • Major support: 51.40, marked on the chart as a potential demand zone and projected downside target within the channel. 4. Volume Profile and Sentiment • Volume profile for the current 8H range shows Point of Control (POC) around 56.43, with higher sell volume than buy volume, indicating distribution at higher prices. • The custom panel signals bearish sentiment, with negative delta and a “SELL” bias, supporting continuation of the downside leg rather than a strong reversal. 5. Momentum Indicators • RSI on the 8H chart is below the midline and sloping down, confirming weakening momentum and supporting the bearish bias. • Any short term RSI bounce towards 50–60 while price remains under resistance can be treated as a pullback within the larger downtrend. 6. Price Path Projection • Base case: Price may attempt a minor bounce from current levels toward the breakdown zone near 56.50–57.00, then face renewed selling pressure. • If sellers defend this zone, the next leg down towards 55.00 and then 51.40 support becomes likely, in line with the projected yellow path on the chart. 7. Trading Plan Idea (8H) • Bias: Sell on rally within the 8H descending channel as long as price trades below 58.95 resistance. Aggressive bears can look for short setups near the breakdown/POC zone (around 56.5–58.0) with downside targets at 55.00 and 51.40 support, while conservative traders may wait for a clean 8H close below recent lows before entering. aiTrendview Global Disclaimer This aiTrendview report is an AI-generated document provided exclusively for educational and training purposes and shall not be construed as investment, financial, legal, or tax advice in any jurisdiction. aiTrendview and its affiliates are not SEBI-registered research analysts, investment advisers, or portfolio managers, and all information herein is automatically compiled from publicly available sources that may contain errors, delays, or omissions. Users must independently verify all data before making any financial, commercial, or legal decisions, as no market values, performance figures, or trends contained in this report constitute guarantees or forward-looking statements. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any security. aiTrendview, its creators, and all associated AI systems disclaim all liability for losses or consequences arising from the use or reliance upon this content, and users accept full personal responsibility for all actions taken based on it. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or modification of this AI-generated material is strictly prohibited under international copyright, compliance, and intellectual-property laws.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by aiTrendview-Charting-System
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 55.74 (Wave 5).Colleagues, wave “4” of the minor order is ending or has already ended. As part of a major downward movement in wave ‘5’ of the major movement, I expect a downward movement in wave “5” of the minor order. This wave should update the low of wave “3”, but I believe it is worth looking at the nearest target in the support area of 55.746. I also allow for the possibility of reaching the 59.00 area before the price begins a downward movement. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
17
USOIL SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT Hello, Friends! USOIL pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 4H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 56.52 area. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
TVC:USOILShort
by EliteTradingSignals
4
WTI M15 Bullish Continuation After H1 FVG Hold📝 Description WTI crude remains in a strong short-term bullish structure on M15 after an impulsive expansion. Price has pulled back in a controlled manner and is holding above the H1 FVG / BPR zone, suggesting this move is a healthy retracement, not distribution. The higher lows indicate continuation potential rather than exhaustion. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bullish Preferred Setup: • Entry (Buy): 58.03 • Stop Loss: Below 57.8 • TP1: 58.36 • TP2: 58.60 • TP3: 58.75 Acceptance below the H1 FVG invalidates the bullish continuation idea. ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Clean impulsive leg followed by corrective pullback • Price respecting H1 FVG + BPR as demand • No bearish CHOCH on LTF ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary WTI is consolidating above a key HTF demand zone after a strong markup. As long as price holds above the H1 FVG, the market favors continuation toward upside liquidity rather than deeper retracement. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Oil sentiment remains supported by steady demand expectations and ongoing geopolitical sensitivity. With no immediate bearish catalyst and technical structure aligned, price action favors trend continuation, especially according to geopolitical situation in in Iran and Venezuela. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by TFlab
Crude Oil – Sell around 58.50, with a target of 56.00-55.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Recent crude oil buying has been largely ineffective. Despite support from fundamentals and data, there has been little upward movement, only small fluctuations. Sell crude oil at 58.50 today. The chart pattern indicates short-term consolidation, with resistance around 60.00. A break above 62 might open new buying opportunities; otherwise, the outlook remains bearish. Fundamental Analysis: The previous ADP employment data has reassured the market, and expectations for the non-farm payrolls report have largely been priced in. Trading Recommendation: Crude Oil – Sell around 58.50, with a target of 56.00-55.00.
NYMEX:CL1!
by FlyingTowardsWealth
WTI(20260109)Today's AnalysisMarket News: On Tuesday, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average hit record closing highs, marking the first buy signal from Dow Theory in over a year. Technical strategists believe this confirms the bull market that began in late 2022 remains firmly established, even as some previously high-performing AI-related stocks have recently faced pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average's last record closing high was on January 5th, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average's record high was even further back. Dow Jones market data shows that the index's last record closing high was on November 25th, 2024. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Threshold: 57.58 Support and Resistance Levels: 60.26 59.26 58.61 56.54 55.89 54.89 Trading Strategy: If the price breaks above 58.61, consider buying with a first target price of 59.26. If the price breaks below 57.58, consider selling with a first target price of 56.54.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FlyingTowardsWealth