EURCAD: Smart Money Trap LoadingMacro / COT
The latest COT data paints an interesting picture:
EUR – Non-Commercials remain heavily net-long, and long exposure continues to increase. This indicates that a large portion of speculative capital is already positioned to the upside.
CAD – Commercials are accumulating long exposure, while Non-Commercials are reducing longs and adding shorts.
From a Smart Money perspective, when commercials accumulate, they historically tend to anticipate medium-term reversals. This increases the probability that EURCAD is entering a distribution phase.
Seasonality
Historically, January is not supportive for the Euro. Multi-timeframe seasonality data (2–20 years) shows a negative tendency during the early part of the year.
This reinforces a medium-term bearish bias, especially after technical relief rallies.
Retail Sentiment
Currently, 73% of retail traders are SHORT EURCAD.
Such an extreme imbalance increases the probability of a temporary bullish squeeze, often used to clean weak retail shorts before the real directional move takes place.
In other words: bullish spike first → potential bearish reversal afterwards.
Price Action — Daily Chart
On the daily chart, price is trading inside a descending channel and bouncing from lower demand, moving toward a key supply area between 1.6180 – 1.6250.
The technical structure suggests:
1️⃣ Potential push higher into supply
2️⃣ Reaction and shift in structure
3️⃣ Targets around 1.6000 – 1.6030
RSI confirms weak momentum on rallies — an ideal context to sell a deep retracement rather than chase breakouts.
Key Levels
Sell Zone: 1.6180 – 1.6250
Target: 1.6030 → extension 1.5980
Invalidation: Daily close above 1.6300
This scenario remains valid as long as price does not structurally break above the supply block.
