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Crude Oil – Sell around 61.00, target 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Continue to sell on rallies, as the market is bearish. Sell on any rebounds. The daily chart shows a downward trend, with buying pressure failing. Continue selling on today's rebounds. The crude oil inventory data hasn't changed the overall trend. Short-term fluctuations are expected, but the long-term trend remains bearish. The strategy is relatively simple: continue selling. The new major resistance level for crude oil is around 62.00. Fundamental Analysis: Today's NFP employment data will change market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, in the long term, the possibility of further interest rate cuts is greater. Trading Recommendation: Crude Oil – Sell around 61.00, target 60.00-58.00.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldenSpaceship
Crude oil's downward space is expandingDue to a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, WTI prices have extended their decline. In the short term, crude oil’s trend saw a seesaw battle between bulls and bears near the lower edge of the range, with frequent shifts in momentum. Eventually, the bears prevailed, sending prices lower. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment, indicating an objectively downward short-term trend. Oil prices have broken below the 60 support level. It is expected that crude oil’s intraday trend will continue to expand downward. And the short-term support is 58.5,If it breaks below 58.5, focus on the support level at 57.5, while resistance above is at 60.8. Buy 58.5 - 58.8 SL 58 TP 59.3 - 59.8 - 60.3 Sell 60.5 - 60 SL 61 TP 59 - 58.5 - 58
TVC:USOILShort
by KingArthur_
Crude Oil ROAD TO 80!The technical outlook for Crude Oil (WTI) has shifted to a bullish bias following a key rejection at a significant resistance level. The subsequent price action has formed a robust ascending channel, indicating sustained buying pressure and a lack of significant sell-offs. The convergence of this channel with a promising ABCD harmonic pattern suggests a potential long-term bullish trend is developing, with a projected target zone near $80.00. Detailed Pattern Analysis The analysis begins on Wednesday, 9th April, where the price encountered a clear and defined resistance level on the daily chart. This level represented a point where sellers had previously overwhelmed buyers. However, the market's reaction was notably bullish. Instead of reversing into a downtrend, the price action following the rejection formed a well-defined ascending channel. This pattern is characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, contained within two upward-sloping parallel trendlines. It demonstrates consistent and structured buying interest, with each dip being bought at a progressively higher price. The observation of "no sign of a drop" is critical. It indicates that the corrections within the channel are shallow and orderly, lacking the aggressive selling volume that would typically signal a reversal. This reinforces the strength of the underlying bullish momentum and supports the thesis for a sustained "long bull run." The ABCD Pattern: The note that "the ABCD looks promising" refers to a common and reliable harmonic pattern. This pattern suggests that the initial impulsive leg (A to B) is often equal to the subsequent leg (C to D). The completion of this pattern within the context of the broader ascending channel adds significant confluence to the bullish forecast. Trigger and Target: Bullish Trigger: A confirmed break and daily close above the $72.50 level is identified as the key catalyst. This level likely represents the recent high or the upper boundary of the initial consolidation. A breakout here would confirm buyer conviction and open the path for the next leg higher. Long-Term Target: Based on the measured move of the ascending channel and the projected completion point (D point) of the ABCD pattern, the primary profit target is set around $80.00. This represents a significant technical and psychological resistance zone where the pattern would be considered mature. Conclusion: In summary, Crude Oil (WTI) presents a compelling bullish setup on the daily timeframe. The combination of a breakout above key resistance, a steady ascent within a defined channel, and a converging harmonic pattern all point towards a continued upward move. The strategy is to enter on a confirmed breakout above $72.50, targeting the $80.00 area, while strictly managing risk with a stop-loss placed below the channel support. This disciplined approach allows for participation in the potential bull run while rigorously protecting capital.
WLong
by KalaGhazi
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayIncreased policy stimulus in emerging markets, with greater certainty in the increase in demand. Policy-driven procurement emerges as a new engine: The Indian government, in order to ensure the expansion of refineries (with an additional annual capacity of 20 million tons by 2025), launched the "Strategic Reserve Supplement Plan for Crude Oil". In the first half of November, the import volume increased by 16% year-on-year (reaching 5.4 million barrels per day), and it signed a 3-year long-term supply agreement with Saudi Arabia (locking an additional 1 million barrels per day). At the same time, Indonesia and Vietnam simultaneously introduced "Refinery Tax Reduction Policies", driving the import volume of crude oil in Southeast Asia to increase by 12% month-on-month. The policy benefits directly transformed into rigid procurement demands, breaking the single narrative of "weak demand". Recovery of consumption scenarios exceeded expectations: Indian diesel consumption increased by 7.2% due to the acceleration of infrastructure investment (road and port projects increased by 25% year-on-year), while the demand for aviation kerosene in Southeast Asia increased by 9% month-on-month due to the recovery of tourism (international flight volume recovered to 110% of 2019). The demand for transportation fuels and chemical raw materials (with the commissioning of a new 1.2 million-ton ethylene plant in China) formed a "dual-wheel drive", and the expected monthly increase in global crude oil demand in November was 800,000 barrels per day, far exceeding the market expectation of 500,000 barrels per day. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:60.5-61 sl:61.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayThe resonance of the three core driving forces opens up the space for a rebound. The global economy is experiencing a weak recovery, with demand resilience exceeding pessimistic expectations: Despite the IEA's downward revision of demand growth for 2025-2026, the global economy has not fallen into recession. In the third quarter, crude oil demand has grown by an average of 750,000 barrels per day, with the rebound in demand for petrochemical feedstocks being a key support, breaking the market consensus of "persistent weak demand". The cost structure of US shale oil is moving upward: Data from the analysis firm Enverus shows that due to the depletion of high-quality resources and the complexity of the extraction areas, the marginal cost of US shale oil is gradually rising from about $70 per barrel. Most small and medium-sized producers need an oil price of over $65 to make a profit on new well projects, while only large-scale enterprises can maintain a break-even point in the $50-60 range. The current oil price is approaching the cost line, and further declines will curb supply growth, forming a natural bottom support. Net long positions have risen significantly: The latest CFTC position data shows that Brent crude oil long positions increased by 57,000 contracts, short positions decreased by 62,000 contracts, and net long positions rose by 119,000 contracts compared to the previous period. Market sentiment has shifted from extreme pessimism to a bottoming out and rebound, with continued inflows of new buying supporting oil prices. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:60.5-61 sl:61.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Crude Oil – Sell around 61.00, target 58.00-57.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Crude oil is currently consolidating on the daily chart. Continue to sell on rallies. Our overall strategy remains bearish, and trading has been within a small range. Daily price fluctuations are limited, and we're not using a contract range-bound strategy. We recommend selling at higher prices. Yesterday's crude oil inventory data did not change the overall direction of crude oil. Sell again around 61.00 today. Fundamental Analysis: Yesterday's ADP employment data was 4.8%, compared to a previous forecast of -2.9. The positive data is generally considered favorable for selling gold, but gold only saw a small rebound with limited impact. Trading Recommendation: Crude Oil – Sell around 61.00, target 58.00-57.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldenSpaceship
WTI(20251106)Today's AnalysisMarket News: US ADP employment rose by 42,000 in October, the largest increase since July 2025, exceeding market expectations of 28,000. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for October came in at 52.4, a new high since February 2025. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Threshold: 60.27 Support and Resistance Levels: 61.30 60.91 60.66 59.87 59.62 59.23 Trading Strategy: Consider buying if the price breaks above 60.27, with a first target price of 60.66. Consider selling if the price breaks below 59.87, with a first target price of 59.62.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldenSpaceship
Gold/Oil Signaling Market Is In A Super Bubble Gold = Fear Oil = how strong the economy is. Except for COVID we have never seen such an extreme reading. Yet people are buying up stocks like we will never again be able to produce another stock again as long as we live! Tulips! Here are just a few of the factors to consider that make this indicator important. Why This Indicator Matters: Key Factors at a Glance Gold’s Surge Signals a Shift Gold has soared nearly 60% year-to-date, adding a staggering $10 trillion in market capitalization. This rally effectively erases all the stock market gains made since May 2021, including those driven by AI enthusiasm and speculative tech runs. USD Can Only Be Measured Against Gold As the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar’s real value is best gauged in terms of gold. This is a critical point—because when gold rises this dramatically, it reflects monetary inflation. A large part of the stock market rally has been driven by an expanding money supply, not true value creation. Curiously, this inflation hasn’t shown up in oil prices, which have collapsed, despite geopolitical risks. More on that below. The Dollar’s Worst Year in Decades 2025 marks one of the most significant declines for the U.S. dollar in recent history. Its role as the world reserve currency (WRC) has diminished—from 85% in the 1970s to just 50% today. Trade wars and tariffs are only accelerating this trend. Monetary Inflation Drives Stock Prices Stock markets are being lifted by monetary inflation, not organic growth. Stocks can be created endlessly—unlike gold. That makes gold a true inflation benchmark. The stock market’s rise is, in large part, a mirage, reflecting debased currency, not real productivity. Oil Isn’t Behaving as Expected—Why? Typically, when the dollar weakens, oil prices rise—because more dollars are needed to buy the same barrel of oil. But right now, oil prices are soft. Why? Global demand is weak, outpaced by supply. Even the Russia-Ukraine war hasn’t changed that dynamic. In fact, Russia is now importing gasoline, as Ukrainian forces continue to target and disable refining capacity. Here’s why this matters: when oil wells are opened, they can't just be turned off. If the refiners are destroyed and the oil has nowhere to go—it’s wasted. That’s a strategic win for Ukraine. The Disconnect Between Stock Prices and Profits While inflation has pushed stock prices higher, it hasn’t translated into equivalent profit growth. Example: If a stock goes from $10 to $20 due to inflation, you'd expect earnings to go from $1 to $2 to maintain the same P/E ratio. Instead, the earnings yield is just 3.2%—a historical low. That’s a major red flag. As pilots would say: WTF, over? Here’s the likely explanation: The money hasn’t reached consumers—it's concentrated in the hands of wealthy savers and leveraged investors, who are buying more stocks to sell to the next buyer willing to lever up even more. It’s a classic feedback loop—and a superbubble reminiscent of the tulip mania era. The Smart Money Knows What's Coming As this imbalance grows more obvious, central banks and institutional investors are quietly increasing their gold holdings—well above the pace of supply growth. So when Gold/Oil (two important commodities) completely disconnect like this, and Gold explodes up like this, you'd better take notice! Lastly, it takes 100 ounces to buy a new home. Last time this occurred was in 1978 ish, 2011, and now! Debt to GDP in 76 was 33%, 2011 was 99% and today 126% It is not the same animal as the past. GTFO & STFO! No matter where the prices for stocks go! CAUTION!!!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RealMacro
75
WTI OIL 4H Channel Down aiming for a Lower Low.WTI Oil (USOIL) is extending the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) rejection of October 24 and has formed a short-term Channel Down. We are currently on its second Bearish Leg following a new rejection this time on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). With the first Bearish Leg declining by -4.72%, we expect the current one to replicate this drop and target $58.60. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
Sell crude oil around 61.50, with a target of 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Maintain a sell stance on crude oil. Every rebound is a selling opportunity. Crude oil has seen relatively small fluctuations in recent months, with minimal market reaction and constant buying and selling. Consider selling if it rebounds to 61.50 today. Previous inventory data releases also had a temporary impact, leading to selling pressure. Fundamental Analysis: Today, focus on the ADP employment data, a leading indicator for non-farm payrolls. Also, pay attention to the new crude oil inventory data. Trading Recommendation: Sell crude oil around 61.50, with a target of 60.00-58.00.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldenSpaceship
Immediate data is negative, and inventory support has weakened. The inventory reduction process in the United States has come to an end, and the expectation of inventory accumulation is rising: The latest high-frequency data shows that the crude oil inventory in the Cushing area increased by 1.8 million barrels (to 36.8 million barrels, reaching a new high since October), ending the previous three-week reduction trend; the U.S. crude oil import volume remained at a high level of 6.1 million barrels per day, coupled with the refinery operating rate dropping from 88.6% to 86.2% (reduced profits led to a decrease in processing demand), short-term inventory accumulation pressure has emerged. The weak signal on the demand side is clear: European diesel consumption decreased by 8% year-on-year, U.S. gasoline retail sales declined by 3.2% month-on-month, the demand for winter heating oil in the Northern Hemisphere did not start as expected (the spot price of heating oil in the New York port dropped by 5.3% in a week), and terminal demand is unable to support oil prices. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today sell：61-60.5 tp:60-59.5 sl:62
TVC:USOILShort
by Ryan_Lewis1
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 59.00.Colleagues, the situation is complicated, but I still expect the price to renew the local low of 56.40. It looks like the price is forming a complex compound correction (WXY) and I think that for now it is worth looking at the 59.00 area as the nearest most likely level. Ideally, I would like to see the completion of wave “C” in the area of 64.80. Fundamental context According to the latest IEA report, the global oil market remains under pressure as supply continues to outpace demand. For 2025, production is expected to rise by around 3 million barrels per day, while demand growth is forecast at only 0.7 million barrels. This imbalance increases the risk of oversupply and inventory buildup across key regions. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
6
Short-term bullish core logic: 3 immediate signals resonatePolicy aspect: OPEC+ halts production increase takes effect, $60 defense line is firmly established On November 3rd, OPEC+ officially announced a 2026 first-quarter production pause, with only a 12-month maintenance increase of 137,000 barrels per day. This decision precisely hedged against the "2 million barrels per day supply surplus in the first quarter" risk warned by IEA. Historical data shows that when OPEC+ voluntarily curbs production during the demand slack period, oil prices often receive a policy support premium of 1-2 weeks. Currently, $60.91 is at the stabilization stage after policy support, and $60, as the marginal cost line for US shale oil, forms a double support.​ Inventory aspect: Unexpected continuous inventory reduction, demand resilience exceeds expectations As of the week ending October 24th, US commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 6.86 million barrels (expected only a 200,000 barrel reduction), gasoline and distillate inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels and 3.36 million barrels respectively, and all three oil product inventories were below the five-year average by 3%-8%. Although the inventory in the Cushing region increased by 1.334 million barrels month-on-month, the overall commercial inventory has cumulatively decreased by 15.9 million barrels, coupled with the import volume dropping to a 2021 low (510 million barrels per day), the short-term supply-demand tight balance pattern has not changed, providing substantial support for oil prices.​ Technical aspect: Bottom formation begins, rebound momentum starts $60.91 is at the upper edge of the "56.93-61.65" oscillation range, the daily line presents a "hammer pattern + bullish engulfing" combination pattern, and since late October, a clear bottom reversal signal has been formed;​ Momentum indicators improve simultaneously: RSI has rebounded from the oversold range to 41, the MACD red bar begins to expand, and after the price stabilizes at the $60 key level, speculative long positions have returned 38,000 contracts in a week, the financial support has strengthened. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today sell：61-61.5 tp:60.5-60 sl:62
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayThe cooling of inflation data strengthens the logic of a rate cut. The core PCE price index in the United States rose by 2.8% year-on-year in October (lower than the expected 3.0%), reaching a new low since March 2023 and remaining below 3% for three consecutive months, confirming that inflation is approaching the Fed's 2% target. The probability of a 25BP rate cut in December has risen from 65% to 82%, and the cumulative rate cut expectation for 2026 has reached 125BP. In a liquidity-lean environment, the valuation attractiveness of crude oil as a risky asset has significantly increased - historical data shows that the average increase in WTI oil prices during the rate-cut cycle is 12%-15%, and the current price of $61.21 is still in the early stage of valuation recovery.​ The US dollar index is under pressure, and the expectation of non-US demand release is expected. The US dollar index has fallen by 3.2% from its October high and is currently stabilizing below the 92.5 mark. The purchasing power of non-US currencies has rebounded. The purchasing costs of oil-importing countries such as India and China have decreased. In November, India's oil imports are expected to increase by 6% month-on-month (to 5.2 million barrels per day), and China's refineries have received new quotas in November (an additional 12 million tons), and the policy-driven replenishment demand will directly support oil purchases, forming a positive cycle of "weak US dollar - increased purchases - oil price rise". Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：60.5-61 tp:61.5-62 sl:60
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayU.S. crude oil inventories have exceeded expectations for three consecutive weeks of decline, easing the pressure in Cushing. The latest EIA data (as of the week ending November 1) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels on a month-on-month basis (expected - 2.2 million barrels), with the scale of decline in the past three weeks exceeding market expectations, and a cumulative reduction of 12.6 million barrels. The core Cushing region's inventories ended the previous four weeks of consecutive increases and decreased by 1.2 million barrels on a month-on-month basis (to 35 million barrels, 8% lower than the 5-year average), shifting from "accumulation pressure" to "tight balance". This data directly dispelled market concerns about "more than 2 million barrels per day of accumulation in the fourth quarter", and $61 became the strong bottom range supported by inventories. Global major consumption areas' inventories have improved simultaneously, verifying the resilience of demand European ARA region's crude oil inventories dropped to 43 million barrels (a 12% year-on-year decrease), China's commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels on a month-on-month basis (with the start of refinery replenishment demand), and Japan's crude oil inventories also decreased by 5% compared to the previous month. Global major consumption areas' inventories have simultaneously declined, confirming that terminal demand is not "unilaterally weak", but rather shows "overall resilience under regional differentiation", providing cross-regional supply and demand support for oil prices. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：60.8-61 tp:61.8-62.5 sl:60.4
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayPrecise control of production increase pace, directly addressing the pain point of the demand off-season On November 2nd, the eight core member countries of OPEC + reached a key decision: in December 2025, they will maintain a slight increase of 137,000 barrels per day, but in the first quarter of 2026, they will completely suspend further production increases. This decision precisely hedged against the risk of "a record 4 million barrels per day surplus in 2026" as warned by the IEA. By freezing the supply increase in the weakest demand quarter (with demand possibly dropping by 2-3 million barrels per day in February and March), it forms a substantive "price protection and stabilization measure". Compared with the previous market concerns about "continuous production increase", the policy shift brought about a difference in expectations, providing strong support for oil prices. $60 became the implicit bottom line for the OPEC + policy to support the market. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：60.8-61 tp:61.8-62.5 sl:60.4
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1