S&P500 Iron Condor 60% profit 76% PoP50, high IVR for #optionsI just can't resist the very high IVR for large ETFs, like SPY.
My most common strategies these at corrections are the Iron Condors, neutral or negative delta.
SAFETY ZONES: 200MA could act as support, ATH could act as resistance.
Max profit: $375
Probability of 50%Profit: 76%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 60%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$150
Req. Buy Power: $625 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 49 (ultra high for S&P500)
Expiry: 56 days
SETUP : IC for , because IVR ultra high, for 3.75cr
* Sell 1 SPY Jan21' 420 Put
* Buy 1 SPY Jan21' 430 Put
* Buy 1 SPY Jan21' 480 Call
* Sell 1 SPY Jan21' 490 Call
SETUP: IC for SPY, because IVR ultra high.
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~150$.
Take profit strategy: 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 1.88db.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
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Options
Very Concerning Chart for the S&P FuturesWe are seeing a new variant concerning many scientists emerging in South Africa.
My opinion is leaning towards that this could be something much bigger than what the market may initially shrug off. I expect a very red day tomorrow as the implications for this are massive with the supply chain crisis and the labor shortage.
Be safe!
BBY Fib Retracement and Prediction BBY had a heavy drop for earnings on Tuesday. I was lucky enough to have grabbed some lotto puts before close and ended up making 600%. After that, I added $125 calls 12/17 around the $117.50 area at 1.95 once I saw a reversal confirmation and that it was bouncing off the 200ma on the daily. What I expect to happen tomorrow is BBY to push up to the 124.38 area and then go back down from there. If I see it resisting at the fib, I will sell my calls for profit and switch to puts. If it is able to break 124.38 and the mental barrier of 125, I will continue riding my calls until I see a reason to exit.
$RIVN will be $151 by Christmas$1.2T infrastructure bill passing
Their R1S and R1T EV pickup truck deliveries to start Jan 2022
Cybertruck keeps getting delayed and the F150 ligtning is looking more like June 2022.
EV pickup trucks are the next natural evolutionary step in transition to low carbon autonomous driving vehicles…. then comes the Tesla Semi to take over the world.
ETH still in a downtrend till FridayEthereum is still finishing its last lag of its ABC move to the downside with a C move incoming that might hurt some leveraged traders out there. With futures expiring this Friday it would make sense for ETH to trade lower than its current price levels. My(!) max pain price based on info I have would be around 3850. So I expect ETH to be around that price point on Friday afternoon after finding support in the lower order block (yellow). If however, ETH holds in the upper order block or above this scenario is invalidated. Keep an eye on the bear flag break and the price action in the order blocks. This last move is a shake out for the leveraged traders and options traders and will scare the market into bearish sentiment and thus the perfect time for the market maker to step in to reverse the trend for (possibly) a move to a new ATH.
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.















