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Asymmetric War Trade – $3.90 Anticipatory Entry Targeting $9.901. Revised Technical Analysis Current Price: $3.82 New Proposed Entry: $3.90 New Stop-Loss: $2.90 A. Logic of the New Entry Scheme Early Entry: Entering at $3.90 anticipates an earlier confirmation of the rebound, based on: The active bullish divergence on the CCI The immediate proximity of the current price ($3.82) The intent to capture upward movement before the major Fibo resistance Improved Risk/Reward Ratio: The lower entry and tight stop create a superior R:R. B. Calculation of the New Risk/Reward Ratio Risk per unit: $3.90 - $2.90 = $1.00 Reward to TP1 ($8.16): $8.16 - $3.90 = $4.26 Base R:R: 1:4.26 (Extremely favorable) Reward to TP2 ($9.90): $9.90 - $3.90 = $6.00 → R:R 1:6 C. Required Technical Validation for $3.90 Minimum Condition: Weekly close above $3.85 + CCI maintaining its ascent Additional Confirmation: Break above $4.50 as a first intermediate signal 2. Revised Scenarios with New Levels Optimized Bullish Scenario Entry: $3.90 (buy on current strength) Stop-Loss: $2.90 (-25.6% from entry) Targets: TP1: $5.80 (+48.7%) - First Fibo test TP2: $6.70 (+71.8%) - Major breakout TP3: $8.16 (+109.2%) TP4: $9.90 (+153.8%) Invalidation Scenario The stop at $2.90 invalidates the thesis if: The CCI divergence fails Price fails to surpass $4.50 Fundamental downward pressure prevails 3. 2026 Geo-Economic Analysis - Impact on Strategy Impact of the New Scheme on Crisis Management Lighter Initial Position possible thanks to the favorable R:R Reduced Capital at Risk: $1.00 initial risk vs. potential $6.00+ move Increased Flexibility to: Add on the breakout of $6.70 Fund geopolitical hedges Recalculated Extreme Price Scenarios From $3.90: Moderate crisis scenario ($12): +207% Major crisis scenario ($20): +412% Catastrophe scenario ($25): +541% 4. Detailed Execution Plan Step 1: Initial Entry Level: $3.90 Size: Core position (50% of planned exposure) Condition: CCI > -50 and price > $3.85 on daily close Step 2: Post-Entry Management First target: $4.50 → Move stop to $3.40 Critical threshold: $5.00 → Technical stop to $4.00 Decision zone: $5.50-$5.80 → Prepare addition or reduction Step 3: Conditional Additions Addition 1: On breakout of $5.80 (+33% from TP1) Addition 2: On confirmation > $6.70 Unified stop after additions: $5.20 5. Trade Dashboard Metric Value Comment Entry $3.90 Anticipatory level Stop-Loss $2.90 -25.6% risk Unit Risk $1.00 TP1 ($5.80) +48.7% R:R 1:1.9 TP2 ($6.70) +71.8% R:R 1:2.8 TP3 ($8.16) +109.2% R:R 1:4.3 TP4 ($9.90) +153.8% R:R 1:6.0 Crisis Scenario ($15) +284.6% R:R 1:11.1 6. Final Recommendations Advantages of the New Scheme Exceptional R:R: Even with 30% success rate, the mathematical expectancy is positive Early Exposure to geopolitical movements Tight Stop limiting losses in case of failure Specific Risks Stop too tight: Risk of premature exit on normal volatility Lack of confirmation: Entry without Fibo validation Adaptation to 2026 Conditions Allocation: 3-5% of capital on this anticipatory scheme Complementary Hedge: Call options at $6.00 to cover the intermediate phase Enhanced Monitoring between $3.50-$4.50 for dynamic adjustment Strategic Conclusion: The revision to a $3.90 entry with a $2.90 stop transforms this trade into an asymmetric opportunity: Limited Risk: $1.00 per unit Unlimited Potential through geopolitical leverage Optimal Positioning for the dual contingency: Slow technical realization towards $5.80-$6.70 Triggering geopolitical event (the true 2026 catalyst) "This strategy anticipates that the first signal of geopolitical escalation will send natural gas well beyond $4.50, making the $3.90 entry retrospectively very low. The $2.90 stop is the price to pay for this anticipation."
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by winerstep
DeGRAM | BTCUSD broke down through the triangle📊 Technical Analysis ● BTC/USD remains in a long-term bearish structure, trading below a descending resistance line that has capped multiple recovery attempts since August, confirming sustained selling pressure. ● The latest triangle consolidation resolved lower, with price slipping back toward the major horizontal support zone near 85,000–80,000, signaling continuation of the falling trend. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Tight global financial conditions, reduced liquidity, and cautious institutional positioning continue to weigh on Bitcoin, limiting upside despite periodic rebound attempts. ✨ Summary ● BTC stays below key descending resistance. ● Long-term downside risk remains dominant, with a move toward 85,000–80,000 favored while below 96,000. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
2
BNBUSDT M15 HTF FVG Rejection and Bearish Continuation📝 Description BINANCE:BNBUSDT is trading within a broader bearish structure after a strong impulsive sell-off. The recent upside move appears corrective, with price reacting into a higher-timeframe Fair Value Gap, suggesting a potential continuation of the dominant bearish trend. ________________________________________ 📉 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bearish below the H1 FVG Preferred Setup: • Entry: 847.07 • Stop Loss: Above 852.07 • TP1: 842.80 • TP2: 838.00 • TP3: 833.20 ________________________________________ 🧠 ICT & SMC Notes • Strong bearish displacement confirming downside market structure • Price trading below previous liquidity highs (LH failure) • Reaction into H1 Fair Value Gap aligns with premium sell zone • Clear SMT with TOTAL3 ________________________________________ 📌 Summary As long as price remains below the 852–856 resistance area, the bearish continuation scenario remains valid. The current retracement is viewed as a corrective move within a larger downside trend, targeting deeper liquidity pools below. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Broader risk-off sentiment across crypto markets and declining momentum in large-cap altcoins continue to weigh on BNB. Without a strong bullish catalyst, downside continuation remains the higher-probability scenario. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
Short
by TFlab
GBPJPY buyers looking for a 1D MA100 test.The GBPJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 09 2025 Low and this week is seen pulling back from its top (Higher Highs trend-line) to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the first Support of this pattern. With the previous Bearish Leg pulling back by -3.04% and touching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before bottoming, we seek for the price to repeat that in order to turn into a long-term buy opportunity again. Even the 1D RSI has some breathing room before it bottoms. Once that condition is met, we expect the new Bullish Leg to target 220.000 at least (Fib extension 1.786). --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
Nifty 50: Bullish "Inner Trend" Breakout Setup (RR 1:4)Market Analysis While the Nifty 50 remains compressed within a large-scale Symmetrical Triangle, a critical shift is occurring on the 15-minute timeframe. Inside this "squeeze," we observe a clear short-term uptrend characterized by consistent Higher Lows (the blue arrow path). The "Trend Within a Trend" Logic Long-Term Structure: Price is squeezed between Descending Resistance (falling upper trendline) and a horizontal demand zone. Internal Support (25,350): This serves as the Ascending Support line for the immediate short-term trend. It acts as a rising floor where buyers are aggressively stepping in. The Logic: This internal strength acts as a leading indicator. If the "inner trend" holds above 25,350, it will likely drive the price to break out of the "outer" descending resistance toward the next major supply zone. Trade Execution (Buy on Retest) Long Entry: 25,300 (Retest of demand zone / Premium Discount 50% of Fib). Take Profit (Target): 25,600 (Major supply zone target post-triangle breakout). Stop Loss: 25,235 (Structural invalidation below the internal support). Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:4.6. Conclusion The internal structure is increasingly bullish despite the overall sideways compression. As long as the 25,350 Ascending Support holds, the pressure remains on sellers to defend the overhead resistance. A breakout with high volume above 25,400 will confirm the move toward 25,600+.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by srinirajraj
1
GBP/JPY Best Places To Buy And Sell Cleared , 400 Pips Waiting !Here is m y opinion on GBOP/JPY On 4H T.F , We have a Huge movement To Upside & Then to downside since Last 2 weeks , and we have a good range for buy and sell started between 211.900 to 210.000 so we can buy and sell GBP/JPY This Week from 2 areas , 210.000 will be the best place for Buy and 211.900 will be the best place for Sell , now the price very near buy area so we can Enter a buy trade now and targeting 211.900 and when the price touch it and give us a good bearish P.A , we can enter a sell trade and targeting 210.000, It`s All Depend On Price action , if we have a daily closure below our support then this idea will not be valid anymore . Entry Reasons : 1- Lowest Level The Price Touch It 2- Broken Res . 3- New Support Touched . 4- Clear Price Action . 5- Clear Support & Res . 6- Price Range Cleared .
Short
by FX_Elite_Club
2
DeGRAM | GOLD has taken a sharp dive down📊 Technical Analysis ● XAU/USD has broken decisively below the rising channel that guided price since Jan 22, signaling a clear shift from bullish continuation to corrective decline. The sharp rejection from the upper structure and subsequent impulsive sell-off confirm bearish momentum. ● Price has lost the former resistance at 5,100, which is now acting as a supply zone, opening the path toward the next supports near 4,990 and 4,900 as the falling structure remains intact. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● A firmer USD and higher US yields after recent macro releases are pressuring gold, reducing demand for safe-haven exposure in the short term. ✨ Summary ● Bullish structure is broken. ● Short-term downside toward 4,990–4,900 is favored while below 5,100. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DeGRAM
2
Nasdaq At Perfect Area For Sell , Don`t Miss 500 Pips !Here is My 8H NASDAQ Chart , and here is my opinion , we again @ 26200.00 With 4H Candle , first time this area forced the price to respect it and moved very good to downside more than 2300 Pips , now the price trying to retest this area again , i hope we can sell from the same area and targeting 150 : 400 pips , and we all know that this area are very strong and will push the price to downside even if we have any fake breakout , the price will go down again and give us at least 200 pips ,so we can sell now and targeting from 150 to 350 pips or if you want to be more safe you can wait if the price go up a little and then enter when the price touch the high area again . if we have a daily closure above this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore . Reasons To Enter : 1- Perfect First Touch For The Area . 2- Clear Bearish Price Action . 3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bearish P.A . 4- Over Bought . 5- Perfect 30 Mins Closure . 6- Old Res
FX:NAS100Short
by FX_Elite_Club
2
Lingrid | XRPUSDT Bearish Setup at Key Resistance AreaBINANCE:XRPUSDT remains capped below the key resistance, with the latest rebound failing to reclaim the broken structure and forming a clear lower high. Price is compressing beneath the channel border while upside attempts continue to lose strength, suggesting demand is thinning rather than expanding. The current bounce looks corrective within a broader bearish context, not the start of a trend reversal. If sellers continue to control the 1.90–1.91 supply zone, price could rotate lower toward the 1.841 level initially, with a deeper slide potentially extending toward lower support area where prior demand briefly stepped in. Momentum favors downside continuation unless structure changes decisively. ➡️ Primary scenario: rejection from 1.90–1.91 → decline toward 1.841. ⚠️ Risk scenario: a sustained close above the descending trendline may invalidate the bearish setup and open room for a higher recovery.
Short
by Lingrid
3
MSTR LongMSTR: Long From Key Demand With Up to 50% Upside Description: MicroStrategy is trading inside a major higher-timeframe demand zone after a deep corrective move. Analyst sentiment remains supportive, with 13 analysts rating MSTR as Strong Buy. While long-term targets are higher, this setup focuses on a technical mean-reversion long with a realistic upside potential of up to 50% from current levels. Trade Plan (Long): • Entry: 135–145 • Target: 200–220 (up to ~50%) • Invalidation: Daily close below 120
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by rencus30
Silver Chasing Fibonacci Extension Targets Silver price action continues to display a strong bullish projection, with momentum firmly favoring the upside. The most notable technical development is price reclaiming and closing above the 0.618 Fibonacci extension, a level that often acts as a decisive threshold in trending markets. Acceptance above this zone signals that buyers remain in control and that the bullish structure is intact. From a market structure perspective, Silver is maintaining a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the broader bull trend. There are currently no signs of distribution or exhaustion in the immediate price action, suggesting that pullbacks remain corrective rather than trend-changing. As long as price continues to hold above the reclaimed Fibonacci extension, downside risk remains limited. The next key upside objective is the $142 Fibonacci extension, which stands out as the next major resistance level on the higher time frame. This level represents a natural target for continuation given the strength of the current trend and the lack of nearby overhead resistance. From a technical and price action perspective, Silver remains firmly bullish. Until there is a loss of key support or a structural shift, the path of least resistance continues to point higher, with $142 remaining the primary upside focus in the immediate short term.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
2
RIVER to 70 ? watch out the 50 level The 50 level has become the decisive battleground for bulls attempting to regain control of the broader structure. Recent price action shows stabilization around this zone, with higher lows forming and selling pressure gradually weakening. The volume profile highlights 50 as a developing value area, suggesting growing acceptance rather than rejection. If buyers continue to defend this level and build support, it signals accumulation and a shift in short-term momentum. Holding above 50 keeps the bullish recovery scenario intact, opening the door for a sustained move higher, with the 70 region standing out as the next major resistance and upside target.
Long
by Davide_Manfrini
1
01/27/2026 MSTR/MSTU LongHello traders, I’m neutral on Bitcoin for now, but I’m bullish on MSTR/MSTU. The hammer candle on the 4-hour timeframe suggests upside potential from here. After consolidating within a tight range for several days, MSTR appears ready for a breakout. My conservative Take Profit (TP) is the R1 trendline, though we may see further extension depending on Bitcoin’s performance. Stop Loss (SL) is set just below the previous wick. Conservative TP : $180-$183 SL : $155 May the trend be with you. GL all! AP
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by aparkon
Dollar Breaking Down, But How Far? Good day everyone.. While I was away, skiing in Austria, the dollar has seen a very strong and extended decline, exactly as we discussed and expected in our previous updates. Dollar weakness has now pushed to new lows, breaking below the 2025 levels, which suggests we may soon be heading into more overextended conditions. This means that at some point we may see some meaningful pullbacks. COT short positioning is close to 2007 extremes, and with recent sell-off this data can be pushed into even more significant levels… Something to consider; what may happen at such levels. Stabilization? At the same time, there is still a lot going on in the background, including uncertainty and potential escalation between the US and Iran, the risk of a partial US government shutdown, and most recent event was the Fed decision yesterday. The Fed decided to hold rates steady at the first meeting of 2026 as the economy is doing quite well, but there is also strong pressure coming from President Trump toward Powell, which could help stabilize the dollar in the near term if FED losses independecy. On the other hand, stocks remain firmly in risk on mode. META, Tesla, reported strong results above expectations, and there are also new reports about further investments into OpenAI. So we are still in a phase of strong risk on flows and tech boom. But as said, given how extended the recent legs lower on the dollar have been this week, so some stabilization is likely to show up. But what will cause it its yet to be discovered. Grega
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
BULLA is showing extreme overbought conditionsSHORT – BULLA Across multiple timeframes, BULLA is showing extreme overbought conditions, signaling a high risk of mean reversion. On the 15-minute timeframe, a clear bearish divergence has formed, indicating weakening bullish momentum despite elevated prices. Price has broken down from the ascending trend, confirming a loss of bullish structure. Additionally, there is a strong overhead resistance zone, where prior distribution occurred. Current price action shows diminishing buying pressure and lack of follow-through, aligning with classic momentum and trend exhaustion signals supported by RSI divergence, trendline failure, and price–structure analysis. 🎯 TP: 0.335 🛡️ SL: 0.09852 📊 RR: 1 : 6 Trade thesis: multi-timeframe overbought conditions + bearish divergence on M15 + breakdown of the uptrend and strong overhead resistance, forming a high-probability short setup with an attractive risk–reward profile.
Short
by DragonCaoB
DAX/GER - YOU DONE IT AGAIN - 2ND TIMES OF THE DAYDAX target hit again today. GDP numbers came in strong, so there’s no fundamental reason for fear. The current sell‑off is purely CPI‑driven sentiment, not structural weakness. I’m positioned long on DAX at 24400–24425, and the setup remains intact. DAX Trade Plan Current Long Position Entry: 24400–24425 Target 1: 24465–24476 Target 2: 24515–24545 Market Expectations CPI Fear = Opportunity The market is reacting emotionally ahead of CPI, not logically. GDP strength confirms underlying resilience. US Session Outlook I expect DAX to recover before the US market opens, supported by a rebound in US indices. NASDAQ: Recovery expected DOW: Targeting 49200–49500 This aligns with current liquidity flow and the typical pre‑CPI positioning unwind. Confidence Stays High The structure is clean, the fundamentals are supportive, and fear‑based selling rarely sustains. We stay disciplined, follow the targets, and ride the recovery. LETS GO
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by ActiveTraderRoom
1
USNAS100 | Bearish Momentum Extends After 400-Point DropUSNAS100 | Bearish Momentum Extends After 400-Point Drop The Nasdaq 100 declined by around 400 points, moving exactly as outlined in the previous analysis. Selling pressure remains dominant as long as the index stays below a key pivot zone, keeping downside risk active. Technical Outlook The index maintains a bearish structure while trading below 25835. As long as price remains below this level, downside momentum is expected toward 25600 and 25250. A confirmed 1H close below 25250 would extend the bearish move toward 24780. On the upside, a bullish reversal would require a 4H candle close above 25835, which would open recovery targets toward 26025 and 26190. Key Levels • Pivot: 25835 • Support: 25600 – 25250 – 24780 • Resistance: 26025 – 26190
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
2